In yesterday’s Stanley Cup Semi-Final, Tampa Bay scored early and scored often as they trounced the New York Islanders 8-0.  Tampa Bay opened the scoring 45 seconds in, and took a 3-0 lead after the first period.  They scored three more goals in the second and twice more in the third, as they handily defeated New York.  Andrei Vasilevskiy recorded his 3rd shutout of the playoffs, and Brayden Point scored again for the 8th straight game, tying him for the second-longest goal-scoring streak in a single playoff post-season.  With the win, Tampa Bay takes a 3-2 series lead, and we’re now giving the defending Stanley Cup champions a 77.6% chance of advancing to the Finals.

In tonight’s game, Montreal visits Vegas, with that series tied 2-2.  With two home games remaining to Montreal’s one, the McDonald NHL Power Ratings gang is giving Vegas a 65.9% chance of winning the series.

Yesterday’s Game

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

New York Islanders 0 at Tampa Bay 8

• Tampa Bay leads series 3-2
• Tampa Bay now has a 77.6% chance of winning the series, up from 55.6%

Series schedule:

• June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
• June 15: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4
• June 17: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 1
• June 19: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3
• June 21: New York Islanders 0 at Tampa Bay 8
• June 23: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
• June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Tampa Bay has a 77.6% chance of winning (▲22.0)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 48.0% (▲20.2)
  • In 7 games: 29.6% (▲1.8)
• New York Islanders has a 22.4% chance of winning (▼22.0)
  • In 7 games: 22.4% (▲1.5)
  • In 6 games: 0.0% (▼23.5)
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Game

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Montreal at Vegas

• Series tied 2-2
• Vegas has a 65.9% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matches – Semi-Finals

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Montreal leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Vegas 66%, Montreal 34%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1600, 1st overall
• Montreal: 1520, 4th overall

Playoffs so far:

• Vegas:
  • First round: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Colorado in 6 games
• Montreal:
  • First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 14: Montreal 1 at Vegas 4
• June 16: Montreal 3 at Vegas 2
• June 18: Vegas 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)
• June 20: Vegas 2 at Montreal 1 (OT)
• June 22: Montreal at Vegas
• June 24: Vegas at Montreal
• June 26: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Vegas has a 65.9% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 35.8%
  • In 7 games: 30.2%
• Montreal has a 34.1% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 16.9%
  • In 6 games: 17.1%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Tampa Bay leads series 3-2

Chances of winning: Tampa Bay 78%, New York Islanders 22%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Tampa Bay: 1577, 2nd overall
• New York Islanders: 1562, 3rd overall

Playoffs so far:

• Tampa Bay:
  • First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
• New York Islanders:
  • First round: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Boston in 6 games

Series schedule:

• June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
• June 15: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4
• June 17: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 1
• June 19: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3
• June 21: New York Islanders 0 at Tampa Bay 8
• June 23: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
• June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Tampa Bay has a 77.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 48.0%
  • In 7 games: 29.6%
• New York Islanders has a 22.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 22.4%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the semi-finals started.

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          41.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           27.6%
 3       New York Islanders            20.6%
 4       Montreal Canadiens            10.1%

 

In last night’s Stanley Cup Semi-Final, Vegas, down 2 games to 1, surprised everyone by starting backup goalie Robin Lehner instead of star Marc-Andre Fleury in their game against Montreal.  Lehner had not started a game since May 31st, when he allowed 7 goals by Colorado in the first game of their Division Final.  But, Lehner came through big, stymieing Montreal time after time in a game where the Canadiens looked like the better team.  Montreal scored first, with 1:05 left in the second period.  But, Vegas was not to be outdone, as Brayden McNabb finally managed to squeeze a shot under Montreal goalie Carey Price’s arm for the equalizer half way through the 3rd period.  Both goalies played brilliantly, and regulation time ended with the score still knotted at 1.  But, 1:18 into overtime, Nicolas Roy potted the frozen horse turd over a sprawling Price to win the game for Vegas, tying up the series.  The teams now return to Vegas for Game 5.  With the win, Vegas has regained the edge in the series, with the guys in the back room at McDonald NHL Power Ratings calculating that they’ve got a 2-in-3 chance of winning the series.

The other Semi-Final is also tied at 2 games apiece.  Tonight, the New York Islanders travel to Tampa Bay to take on the Lightning.  We’re giving Tampa Bay a slight edge, with a 55.6% chance of winning the series.

Yesterday’s Game

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Vegas 2 at Montreal 1 (OT)

• Series tied 2-2
• Vegas now has a 65.9% chance of winning the series, up from 44.0%

Series schedule:

• June 14: Montreal 1 at Vegas 4
• June 16: Montreal 3 at Vegas 2
• June 18: Vegas 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)
• June 20: Vegas 2 at Montreal 1 (OT)
• June 22: Montreal at Vegas
• June 24: Vegas at Montreal
• June 26: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Vegas has a 65.9% chance of winning (▲21.9)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 35.8% (▲17.2)
  • In 7 games: 30.2% (▲4.8)
• Montreal has a 34.1% chance of winning (▼21.9)
  • In 7 games: 16.9% (▲2.9)
  • In 6 games: 17.1% (▼6.1)
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼18.8)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Game

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

New York Islanders at Tampa Bay

• Series tied 2-2
• Tampa Bay has a 55.6% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matches – Semi-Finals

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Montreal leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Vegas 66%, Montreal 34%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1600, 1st overall
• Montreal: 1520, 4th overall

Playoffs so far:

• Vegas:
  • First round: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Colorado in 6 games
• Montreal:
  • First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 14: Montreal 1 at Vegas 4
• June 16: Montreal 3 at Vegas 2
• June 18: Vegas 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)
• June 20: Vegas 2 at Montreal 1 (OT)
• June 22: Montreal at Vegas
• June 24: Vegas at Montreal
• June 26: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Vegas has a 65.9% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 35.8%
  • In 7 games: 30.2%
• Montreal has a 34.1% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 16.9%
  • In 6 games: 17.1%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: Tampa Bay 56%, New York Islanders 44%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Tampa Bay: 1577, 2nd overall
• New York Islanders: 1562, 3rd overall

Playoffs so far:

• Tampa Bay:
  • First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
• New York Islanders:
  • First round: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Boston in 6 games

Series schedule:

• June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
• June 15: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4
• June 17: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 1
• June 19: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3
• June 21: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay
• June 23: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
• June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Tampa Bay has a 55.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 27.8%
  • In 7 games: 27.8%
• New York Islanders has a 44.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 20.9%
  • In 6 games: 23.5%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the semi-finals started.

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          41.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           27.6%
 3       New York Islanders            20.6%
 4       Montreal Canadiens            10.1%

 

Defenseman Ryan Pulock made the play of the game for the New York Islanders, as they held on to beat Tampa Bay 3-2 in Game 4 of their Stanley Cup Semi-Final.  After a scoreless first period, the Islanders scored 3 times in the second to go up 3-0.  Brayden Point cut the lead to 2 when he scored for the 7th straight game early in the third, and three minutes later, Tampa Bay scored again to make it 3-2.  In the dying seconds of the game, Tampa Bay’s Ryan McDonagh made a brilliant spin-a-rama move to draw New York goalie Semyon Varlamov out of the net, but Ryan Pulock came in front and made a huge save to preserve the win for New York as time ran out.  What a finish!

The series is now tied 2-2 as the teams head back to Tampa Bay.  With 2 of the next 3 games in Tampa Bay, the McDonald NHL Power Ratings team gives Tampa Bay a slight 55.6% edge to win the series.

In today’s game, top-ranked Vegas visits bottom-ranked Montreal for Game 4 of their series.  Unlikely Montreal leads the series 2 games to 1, and we’re giving Montreal a 56.0% chance of winning the series.  Go Habs!

Yesterday’s Game

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3

• Series tied 2-2
• Tampa Bay now has a 55.6% chance of winning the series, down from 72.9%

Series schedule:

• June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
• June 15: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4
• June 17: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 1
• June 19: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3
• June 21: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay
• June 23: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
• June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Tampa Bay has a 55.6% chance of winning (▼17.3)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼29.8)
  • In 6 games: 27.8% (▲4.6)
  • In 7 games: 27.8% (▲7.9)
• New York Islanders has a 44.4% chance of winning (▲17.3)
  • In 7 games: 20.9% (▲6.0)
  • In 6 games: 23.5% (▲11.3)
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Game

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Vegas at Montreal

• Montreal leads series 2-1
• Montreal has a 56.0% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matches – Semi-Finals

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Montreal leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Vegas 44%, Montreal 56%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1600, 1st overall
• Montreal: 1520, 4th overall

Playoffs so far:

• Vegas:
  • First round: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Colorado in 6 games
• Montreal:
  • First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 14: Montreal 1 at Vegas 4
• June 16: Montreal 3 at Vegas 2
• June 18: Vegas 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)
• June 20: Vegas at Montreal
• June 22: Montreal at Vegas
• June 24: Vegas at Montreal (if necessary)
• June 26: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Vegas has a 44.0% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 18.6%
  • In 7 games: 25.4%
• Montreal has a 56.0% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.0%
  • In 6 games: 23.2%
  • In 5 games: 18.8%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: Tampa Bay 56%, New York Islanders 44%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Tampa Bay: 1577, 2nd overall
• New York Islanders: 1562, 3rd overall

Playoffs so far:

• Tampa Bay:
  • First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
• New York Islanders:
  • First round: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Boston in 6 games

Series schedule:

• June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
• June 15: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4
• June 17: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 1
• June 19: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3
• June 21: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay
• June 23: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
• June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Tampa Bay has a 55.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 27.8%
  • In 7 games: 27.8%
• New York Islanders has a 44.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 20.9%
  • In 6 games: 23.5%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the semi-finals started.

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          41.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           27.6%
 3       New York Islanders            20.6%
 4       Montreal Canadiens            10.1%

 

The unlikely Montreal Canadiens continue their amazing playoff run, backstopped by an incredible Carey Price.  In Game 3 of their Stanley Cup Semi-Final, Montreal came back to upset Vegas 3-2 in overtime!  Vegas dominated the game through the first two periods, outshooting Montreal 16-3 in the first period and 14-5 in the second, but the game was tied 1-1 after two.  Vegas scored early in the third period, and it stayed that way until two minutes left in the game when Vegas goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury mishandled the puck behind his own net, and Montreal capitalized on the miscue to equalize the score.  The game headed to overtime, where Josh Anderson scored his second goal of the night to win it for Montreal.  Montreal unbelievably is now the McDonald NHL Power Ratings favourite in this series, with a slightly-better-than-even edge at 56.0% to win the series.

In tonight’s game, Tampa Bay plays the second game in New York against the Islanders.  After splitting the series at home and winning the next game on the road, Tampa Bay leads the series 2-1.  We’re giving the edge to Tampa Bay, with a 72.9% chance of winning the series. 

Yesterday’s Game

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Vegas 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)

• Montreal leads series 2-1
• Montreal now has a 56.0% chance of winning the series, up from 35.4%

Series schedule:

• June 14: Montreal 1 at Vegas 4
• June 16: Montreal 3 at Vegas 2
• June 18: Vegas 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)
• June 20: Vegas at Montreal
• June 22: Montreal at Vegas
• June 24: Vegas at Montreal (if necessary)
• June 26: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Vegas has a 44.0% chance of winning (▼20.6)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼20.9)
  • In 6 games: 18.6% (▼3.6)
  • In 7 games: 25.4% (▲3.9)
• Montreal has a 56.0% chance of winning (▲20.6)
  • In 7 games: 14.0% (▲1.9)
  • In 6 games: 23.2% (▲8.5)
  • In 5 games: 18.8% (▲10.2)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Game

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay at New York Islanders

• Tampa Bay leads series 2-1
• Tampa Bay has a 72.9% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matches – Semi-Finals

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Montreal leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Vegas 44%, Montreal 56%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1600, 1st overall
• Montreal: 1520, 4th overall

Playoffs so far:

• Vegas:
  • First round: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Colorado in 6 games
• Montreal:
  • First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 14: Montreal 1 at Vegas 4
• June 16: Montreal 3 at Vegas 2
• June 18: Vegas 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)
• June 20: Vegas at Montreal
• June 22: Montreal at Vegas
• June 24: Vegas at Montreal (if necessary)
• June 26: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Vegas has a 44.0% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 18.6%
  • In 7 games: 25.4%
• Montreal has a 56.0% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.0%
  • In 6 games: 23.2%
  • In 5 games: 18.8%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Tampa Bay leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Tampa Bay 73%, New York Islanders 27%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Tampa Bay: 1577, 2nd overall
• New York Islanders: 1562, 3rd overall

Playoffs so far:

• Tampa Bay:
  • First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
• New York Islanders:
  • First round: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Boston in 6 games

Series schedule:

• June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
• June 15: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4
• June 17: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 1
• June 19: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
• June 21: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay
• June 23: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders (if necessary)
• June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Tampa Bay has a 72.9% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 29.8%
  • In 6 games: 23.2%
  • In 7 games: 19.9%
• New York Islanders has a 27.1% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.9%
  • In 6 games: 12.2%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the semi-finals started.

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          41.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           27.6%
 3       New York Islanders            20.6%
 4       Montreal Canadiens            10.1%

 

It was a close game last night, but Tampa Bay prevailed 2-1, taking a 2-1 lead in their Stanley Cup Semi-Final.  Tampa Bay opened the scoring halfway through the first period, but the New York Islanders tied it with 2:22 left in the second period.  Tampa Bay took the lead for good 2 minutes later when Brayden Point scored for the sixth game in a row.  That was his 11th goal of the playoffs, best in the league.  The road victory was Tampa Bay’s 6th, against 1 road loss.  With the win, Tampa Bay has the home advantage, and we’re giving them a 72.9% chance of winning the series now.  Game 4 goes Saturday night, still on Long Island.

In tonight’s game, Vegas travels to Canada, the first American team to enter Canada this season.  Vegas and Montreal are tied 1-1, and although the next two games are in Montreal, we’re still giving Vegas a 64.6% chance of winning the series.

Yesterday’s Game

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 1

• Tampa Bay leads series 2-1
• Tampa Bay now has a 72.9% chance of winning the series, up from 50.8%

Series schedule:

• June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
• June 15: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4
• June 17: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 1
• June 19: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
• June 21: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay
• June 23: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders (if necessary)
• June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Tampa Bay has a 72.9% chance of winning (▲22.1)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 29.8% (▲16.1)
  • In 6 games: 23.2% (▲5.9)
  • In 7 games: 19.9% (▲0.1)
• New York Islanders has a 27.1% chance of winning (▼22.1)
  • In 7 games: 14.9% (▲0.1)
  • In 6 games: 12.2% (▼8.0)
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼14.2)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Game

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Vegas at Montreal

• Series tied 1-1
• Vegas has a 64.6% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matches – Semi-Finals

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Series tied 1-1

Chances of winning: Vegas 65%, Montreal 35%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1600, 1st overall
• Montreal: 1520, 4th overall

Playoffs so far:

• Vegas:
  • First round: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Colorado in 6 games
• Montreal:
  • First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 14: Montreal 1 at Vegas 4
• June 16: Montreal 3 at Vegas 2
• June 18: Vegas at Montreal
• June 20: Vegas at Montreal
• June 22: Montreal at Vegas
• June 24: Vegas at Montreal (if necessary)
• June 26: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Vegas has a 64.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 20.9%
  • In 6 games: 22.2%
  • In 7 games: 21.5%
• Montreal has a 35.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 12.1%
  • In 6 games: 14.7%
  • In 5 games: 8.6%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Tampa Bay leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Tampa Bay 73%, New York Islanders 27%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Tampa Bay: 1577, 2nd overall
• New York Islanders: 1562, 3rd overall

Playoffs so far:

• Tampa Bay:
  • First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
• New York Islanders:
  • First round: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Boston in 6 games

Series schedule:

• June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
• June 15: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4
• June 17: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 1
• June 19: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
• June 21: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay
• June 23: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders (if necessary)
• June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Tampa Bay has a 72.9% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 29.8%
  • In 6 games: 23.2%
  • In 7 games: 19.9%
• New York Islanders has a 27.1% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.9%
  • In 6 games: 12.2%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the semi-finals started.

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          41.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           27.6%
 3       New York Islanders            20.6%
 4       Montreal Canadiens            10.1%

 

Yesterday, we said that Vegas was a clear favourite to win their Semi-Final against Montreal, but that you can’t count Montreal out.  Montreal proved that last night, as they skated to an exciting 3-2 win to even the series at 1 game apiece.  Montreal took a 2-0 lead after the first period, and stretched it to a 3 goal lead late in the second, before defenceman Alex Pietrangelo got Vegas on the board.  Bolstered by yet another sell-out crowd, Vegas had the pressure on, and finally scored again with Pietrangelo again tickling the twine with just over 5 minutes left in the game.  In an exciting last 5 minutes, goalie Carey Price again shone for the Canadiens, as Montreal held on for the hard-fought victory.  The series now heads to Montreal, where the Canadian government has given a COVID-19 quarantine exemption for both teams so that they don’t have to isolate for 14 days.  We’ve still got Vegas as the favourite to win the series, with a 64.6% chance, but that’s less than a 2-in-3 chance!

In tonight’s game, Tampa Bay travels to Long Island to take on the New York Islanders in the 3rd game of their series.  We’re making that semi-final a toss-up, as the defending Stanley Cup champion Lightning have a slight 50.6% edge of winning the series.

Yesterday’s Game

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Montreal 3 at Vegas 2

• Series tied 1-1
• Vegas now has a 64.6% chance of winning the series, down from 82.9%

Series schedule:

• June 14: Montreal 1 at Vegas 4
• June 16: Montreal 3 at Vegas 2
• June 18: Vegas at Montreal
• June 20: Vegas at Montreal
• June 22: Montreal at Vegas
• June 24: Vegas at Montreal (if necessary)
• June 26: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Vegas has a 64.6% chance of winning (▼18.3)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼24.1)
  • In 5 games: 20.9% (▼7.5)
  • In 6 games: 22.2% (▲5.2)
  • In 7 games: 21.5% (▲8.1)
• Montreal has a 35.4% chance of winning (▲18.3)
  • In 7 games: 12.1% (▲4.6)
  • In 6 games: 14.7% (▲7.8)
  • In 5 games: 8.6% (▲5.8)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Game

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay at New York Islanders

• Series tied 1-1
• Tampa Bay has a 50.8% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matches – Semi-Finals

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Series tied 1-1

Chances of winning: Vegas 65%, Montreal 35%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1600, 1st overall
• Montreal: 1520, 4th overall

Playoffs so far:

• Vegas:
  • First round: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Colorado in 6 games
• Montreal:
  • First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 14: Montreal 1 at Vegas 4
• June 16: Montreal 3 at Vegas 2
• June 18: Vegas at Montreal
• June 20: Vegas at Montreal
• June 22: Montreal at Vegas
• June 24: Vegas at Montreal (if necessary)
• June 26: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Vegas has a 64.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 20.9%
  • In 6 games: 22.2%
  • In 7 games: 21.5%
• Montreal has a 35.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 12.1%
  • In 6 games: 14.7%
  • In 5 games: 8.6%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Series tied 1-1

Chances of winning: Tampa Bay 51%, New York Islanders 49%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Tampa Bay: 1577, 2nd overall
• New York Islanders: 1562, 3rd overall

Playoffs so far:

• Tampa Bay:
  • First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
• New York Islanders:
  • First round: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Boston in 6 games

Series schedule:

• June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
• June 15: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4
• June 17: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
• June 19: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
• June 21: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay
• June 23: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders (if necessary)
• June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Tampa Bay has a 50.8% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 13.7%
  • In 6 games: 17.3%
  • In 7 games: 19.8%
• New York Islanders has a 49.2% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.8%
  • In 6 games: 20.2%
  • In 5 games: 14.2%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the semi-finals started.

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          41.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           27.6%
 3       New York Islanders            20.6%
 4       Montreal Canadiens            10.1%

 

Game 2 of the New York Islanders / Tampa Bay semi-final went last night, and Tampa Bay was able to even the series up with a 4-2 win in a penalty-filled game.  New York amassed 66 penalty minutes and Tampa Bay 42, although each team only managed one power play goal.  Tampa Bay never trailed in the game.  With the win, the series is tied 1-1 and the teams head to the old barn on Long Island for Game 3 tomorrow night.  Although we’ve got Tampa Bay rated as the stronger team, because the Islanders now have home ice advantage (3 of the remaining 5 games will be in New York), this series is pretty much a toss-up, with the McDonald NHL Power Ratings team giving Tampa Bay a slight 50.8% / 49.2% edge!

In tonight’s game, Vegas hosts Montreal, with a 1-0 lead in that series.  Vegas is the top-rated team left in the playoffs, and we’re giving them an 82.9% chance of winning the series, and almost a 1-in-4 chance of sweeping the series (24.1%).  But Montreal has faced long odds before, so they can’t be counted out!

Yesterday’s Game

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4

• Series tied 1-1
• Tampa Bay now has a 50.8% chance of winning the series, up from 35.6%

Series schedule:

• June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
• June 15: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4
• June 17: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
• June 19: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
• June 21: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay
• June 23: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders (if necessary)
• June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Tampa Bay has a 50.8% chance of winning (▲15.2)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 13.7% (▲6.2)
  • In 6 games: 17.3% (▲5.5)
  • In 7 games: 19.8% (▲3.6)
• New York Islanders has a 49.2% chance of winning (▼15.2)
  • In 7 games: 14.8% (▲2.9)
  • In 6 games: 20.2% (▲0.7)
  • In 5 games: 14.2% (▼3.2)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼15.6)

Today’s Game

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Montreal at Vegas

• Vegas leads series 1-0
• Vegas has an 82.9% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matches – Semi-Finals

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Vegas leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Vegas 83%, Montreal 17%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1600, 1st overall
• Montreal: 1520, 4th overall

Playoffs so far:

• Vegas:
  • First round: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Colorado in 6 games
• Montreal:
  • First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 14: Montreal 1 at Vegas 4
• June 16: Montreal at Vegas
• June 18: Vegas at Montreal
• June 20: Vegas at Montreal
• June 22: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)
• June 24: Vegas at Montreal (if necessary)
• June 26: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Vegas has a 82.9% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 24.1%
  • In 5 games: 28.4%
  • In 6 games: 17.0%
  • In 7 games: 13.4%
• Montreal has a 17.1% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 7.5%
  • In 6 games: 6.9%
  • In 5 games: 2.8%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Series tied 1-1

Chances of winning: Tampa Bay 51%, New York Islanders 49%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Tampa Bay: 1577, 2nd overall
• New York Islanders: 1562, 3rd overall

Playoffs so far:

• Tampa Bay:
  • First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
• New York Islanders:
  • First round: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Boston in 6 games

Series schedule:

• June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
• June 15: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4
• June 17: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
• June 19: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
• June 21: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay
• June 23: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders (if necessary)
• June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Tampa Bay has a 50.8% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 13.7%
  • In 6 games: 17.3%
  • In 7 games: 19.8%
• New York Islanders has a 49.2% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.8%
  • In 6 games: 20.2%
  • In 5 games: 14.2%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the semi-finals started.

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          41.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           27.6%
 3       New York Islanders            20.6%
 4       Montreal Canadiens            10.1%

 

In the first game of the entire NHL season to be played between a Canadian team and an American team, Vegas came out on top 4-1 to take a 1-0 lead in their Stanley Cup Semi-Final.  The game was pretty close in the first period, with Vegas coming out of the period with a 1-0 lead.  But, Montreal took 3 penalties in the second period, killing any momentum they had, and were down 3-1 after that period.  In the final frame, Vegas scored once more halfway through the period, and despite Montreal pulling their goalie for the last 4 minutes of the game, neither team was able to score, and the game ended 4-1.  With the win, the McDonald NHL Power Ratings team now gives Vegas an 82.9% chance of winning the series.

In tonight’s game, the New York Islanders play Tampa Bay in sunny Florida for the second game of that series.  The Islanders lead the series 1-0, and we’re giving them a 64.4% chance of winning the series.

In other McDonald Power Rating news, the CFL announced yesterday that they would start the 2021 schedule on August 5th.  The truncated 14-game per team schedule will be released today, culminating with the Grey Cup in Hamilton on December 12th.  Look for the McDonald CFL Power Ratings season preview coming out in early August.

Yesterday’s Game

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

June 14th: Montreal 1 at Vegas 4

• Vegas leads series 1-0
• Vegas now has a 82.9% chance of winning the series, up from 72.4%

Series schedule:

• June 14: Montreal 1 at Vegas 4
• June 16: Montreal at Vegas
• June 18: Vegas at Montreal
• June 20: Vegas at Montreal
• June 22: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)
• June 24: Vegas at Montreal (if necessary)
• June 26: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Vegas has a 82.9% chance of winning (▲10.5)
  • In 4 games: 24.1% (▲8.0)
  • In 5 games: 28.4% (▲5.0)
  • In 6 games: 17.0% (▼0.1)
  • In 7 games: 13.4% (▼2.3)
• Montreal has a 17.1% chance of winning (▼10.5)
  • In 7 games: 7.5% (▼1.2)
  • In 6 games: 6.9% (▼3.0)
  • In 5 games: 2.8% (▼3.1)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼3.1)

Today’s Game

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

New York Islanders at Tampa Bay

• New York Islanders lead series 1-0
• New York Islanders have a 64.4% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matches – Semi-Finals

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Vegas leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Vegas 83%, Montreal 17%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1600, 1st overall
• Montreal: 1520, 4th overall

Playoffs so far:

• Vegas:
  • First round: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Colorado in 6 games
• Montreal:
  • First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 14: Montreal 1 at Vegas 4
• June 16: Montreal at Vegas
• June 18: Vegas at Montreal
• June 20: Vegas at Montreal
• June 22: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)
• June 24: Vegas at Montreal (if necessary)
• June 26: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Vegas has a 82.9% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 24.1%
  • In 5 games: 28.4%
  • In 6 games: 17.0%
  • In 7 games: 13.4%
• Montreal has a 17.1% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 7.5%
  • In 6 games: 6.9%
  • In 5 games: 2.8%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

New York Islanders lead series tied 1-0

Chances of winning: Tampa Bay 36%, New York Islanders 64%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Tampa Bay: 1577, 2nd overall
• New York Islanders: 1562, 3rd overall

Playoffs so far:

• Tampa Bay:
  • First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
• New York Islanders:
  • First round: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Boston in 6 games

Series schedule:

• June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
• June 15: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay
• June 17: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
• June 19: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
• June 21: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 23: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders (if necessary)
• June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Tampa Bay has a 35.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 7.5%
  • In 6 games: 11.8%
  • In 7 games: 16.2%
• New York Islanders has a 64.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 11.9%
  • In 6 games: 19.5%
  • In 5 games: 17.4%
  • In 4 games: 15.6%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the semi-finals started.

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          41.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           27.6%
 3       New York Islanders            20.6%
 4       Montreal Canadiens            10.1%

 

The Stanley Cup Semi-Finals have started!  There will be one game a day, alternating between series each day.  Yesterday, the first game of the 2nd-seeded team, Tampa Bay, vs. the 3rd-seeded team, New York Islanders, was played.  In a close-fought contest, the Islanders took the lead 2-0 in the third period, then held off a late charge to win 2-1.  With the goalie pulled, the Isles took a penalty with 1:38 left in the game.  Tampa Bay took advantage of the 6 on 4 situation to pull within one with 53 seconds left, but could manage no more.  With the win, the Islanders are now the McDonald NHL Power Ratings favourite to win this semi-final, with a 64.4% chance of winning.

In tonight’s game, top-seeded Vegas hosts 4th-seeded Montreal in the first game of the other Semi-Final.  Vegas is a clear favourite, with the MNPR group giving them a 72.4% chance of winning the series.  But, you can’t count out Montreal, as they’ve been the underdog in their first two series and won both.

Yesterday’s Game

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1

• New York Islanders lead series 1-0
• New York Islanders now have a 64.4% chance of winning, up from 44.2%

Series schedule:

• June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
• June 15: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay
• June 17: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
• June 19: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
• June 21: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 23: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders (if necessary)
• June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Tampa Bay has a 35.6% chance of winning (▼20.2)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼9.0)
  • In 5 games: 7.5% (▼9.0)
  • In 6 games: 11.8% (▼2.6)
  • In 7 games: 16.2% (▲0.4)
• New York Islanders has a 64.4% chance of winning (▲20.2)
  • In 7 games: 11.9% (▲0.1)
  • In 6 games: 19.5% (▲4.3)
  • In 5 games: 17.4% (▲6.8)
  • In 4 games: 15.6% (▲9.0)

Today’s Game

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

June 14th: Montreal at Vegas

• Series tied 0-0
• Vegas has a 72.4% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matches – Semi-Finals

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Series tied 0-0

Chances of winning: Vegas 72%, Montreal 28%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1600, 1st overall
• Montreal: 1520, 4th overall

Playoffs so far:

• Vegas:
  • First round: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Colorado in 6 games
• Montreal:
  • First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 14: Montreal at Vegas
• June 16: Montreal at Vegas
• June 18: Vegas at Montreal
• June 20: Vegas at Montreal
• June 22: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)
• June 24: Vegas at Montreal (if necessary)
• June 26: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Vegas has a 72.4% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 16.1%
  • In 5 games: 23.4%
  • In 6 games: 17.1%
  • In 7 games: 15.7%
• Montreal has a 27.6% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 8.7%
  • In 6 games: 9.9%
  • In 5 games: 5.9%
  • In 4 games: 3.1%

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

New York Islanders lead series tied 1-0

Chances of winning: Tampa Bay 36%, New York Islanders 64%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Tampa Bay: 1577, 2nd overall
• New York Islanders: 1562, 3rd overall

Playoffs so far:

• Tampa Bay:
  • First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
• New York Islanders:
  • First round: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Boston in 6 games

Series schedule:

• June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
• June 15: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay
• June 17: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
• June 19: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
• June 21: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 23: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders (if necessary)
• June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Tampa Bay has a 35.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 7.5%
  • In 6 games: 11.8%
  • In 7 games: 16.2%
• New York Islanders has a 64.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 11.9%
  • In 6 games: 19.5%
  • In 5 games: 17.4%
  • In 4 games: 15.6%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the semi-finals started.

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          41.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           27.6%
 3       New York Islanders            20.6%
 4       Montreal Canadiens            10.1%

 

The division finals are done, and we’ve got the matchups and schedule finalized for the Stanley Cup semi-finals!

In yesterday’s game, Vegas beat Colorado 6-3 to win the West Division final 4 games to 2.  The game was tied 3-3 late in the second period, but Vegas scored again to head into the final period 4-3, then took control of the third ahead of star goalie Marc-Andre Fleury to win it 6-3, with one of those goals coming on an open net.  Vegas will now face Montreal in the semi-finals.

The semi-finals start on Sunday, when the New York Islanders travel to Tampa Bay.  We’re giving Tampa Bay the edge in that series, 56% to 44%, so it’s pretty close.  In the other series, we’re making Vegas a favourite over Montreal, 72% to 28%, but Montreal is well-rested and have surprised so far in these playoffs.  The Canadian government has given permission for Vegas to cross the border, so both teams will have home games.

After the Division finals, we’ve now got Vegas as our favourite to win the Stanley Cup, at 41.7%, followed by Tampa Bay (27.6%), New York Islanders (20.6%), and Montreal (10.1%).  Sadly, that means we’re only giving a Candian team a 10.1% chance of winning the Cup, but that’s up from 8.5% before the Division finals and down from 18.1% before the playoffs began.  Looking back at our preseason predictions, we gave a Canadian team a 21.3% chance of hoisting the prize. 

Yesterday’s Games

West Division Final

Colorado 3 at Vegas 6

• Vegas wins series 4-2

Series schedule:

• May 30: Vegas 1 at Colorado 7
• June 2: Vegas 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
• June 4: Colorado 2 at Vegas 3
• June 6: Colorado 1 at Vegas 5
• June 8: Vegas 3 at Colorado 2 (OT)
• June 10: Colorado 3 at Vegas 6

Next Playoff Game

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

June 13th: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay

• Series tied 0-0

Playoff Matches – Semi-Finals

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Series tied 0-0

Chances of winning: Vegas 72%, Montreal 28%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1600, 1st overall
• Montreal: 1520, 4th overall

Playoffs so far:

• Vegas:
  • First round: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Colorado in 6 games
• Montreal:
  • First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
  • Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 14: Montreal at Vegas
• June 16: Montreal at Vegas
• June 18: Vegas at Montreal
• June 20: Vegas at Montreal
• June 22: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)
• June 24: Vegas at Montreal (if necessary)
• June 26: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Vegas has a 72.4% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 16.1%
  • In 5 games: 23.4%
  • In 6 games: 17.1%
  • In 7 games: 15.7%
• Montreal has a 27.6% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 8.7%
  • In 6 games: 9.9%
  • In 5 games: 5.9%
  • In 4 games: 3.1%

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Series tied 0-0

Chances of winning: Tampa Bay 56%, New York Islanders 44%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Tampa Bay: 1577, 2nd overall
• New York Islanders: 1562, 3rd overall

Playoffs so far:

• Tampa Bay:
  • First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
• New York Islanders:
  • First round: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games
  • Division final: Defeated Boston in 6 games

Series schedule:

• June 13: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay
• June 15: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay
• June 17: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
• June 19: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders
• June 21: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 23: Tampa Bay at New York Islanders (if necessary)
• June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Tampa Bay has a 55.8% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 9.0%
  • In 5 games: 16.5%
  • In 6 games: 14.4%
  • In 7 games: 15.8%
• New York Islanders has a 44.2% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 11.8%
  • In 6 games: 15.2%
  • In 5 games: 10.6%
  • In 4 games: 6.6%

Playoff Matchups – Division Finals

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Tampa Bay wins series 4-1

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Carolina: 1572, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1554, 6th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Carolina: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Tampa Bay: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last round:

• Carolina: Defeated Nashville in 6 games
• Tampa Bay: Defeated Florida in 6 games

Series schedule:

• May 30: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
• June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
• June 3: Carolina 3 at Tampa Bay 2 (OT)
• June 5: Carolina 4 at Tampa Bay 6
• June 8: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 0

East Division

Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

New York Islanders win series 4-2

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Boston: 1582, 2nd overall
• New York Islanders: 1543, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Boston: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• New York Islanders: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win

Last round:

• Boston: Defeated Washington in 5 games
• New York Islanders: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games

Series schedule:

• May 29: New York Islanders 2 at Boston 5
• May 31: New York Islanders 4 at Boston 3 (OT)
• June 3: Boston 2 at New York Islanders 1 (OT)
• June 5: Boston 1 at New York Islanders 4
• June 7: New York Islanders 5 at Boston 4
• June 9: Boston 2 at New York Islanders 6

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts)

Vegas wins series 4-2

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1638, 1st overall
• Vegas: 1578, 3rd overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Colorado: 4 regulation wins
• Vegas: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last round:

• Colorado: Defeated St. Louis in 4 games
• Vegas: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 30: Vegas 1 at Colorado 7
• June 2: Vegas 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
• June 4: Colorado 2 at Vegas 3
• June 6: Colorado 1 at Vegas 5
• June 8: Vegas 3 at Colorado 2 (OT)
• June 10: Colorado 3 at Vegas 6

North Division

Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Montreal wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Winnipeg: 1526, 7th overall
• Montreal: 1489, 8th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

• Winnipeg: 3 regulation wins, 3 overtime wins
• Montreal: 3 regulation wins

Last round:

• Winnipeg: Defeated Edmonton in 4 games
• Montreal: Defeated Toronto in 7 games

Series schedule:

• June 2: Montreal 5 at Winnipeg 3
• June 4: Montreal 1 at Winnipeg 0
• June 6: Winnipeg 1 at Montreal 5
• June 7: Winnipeg 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the semi-finals started.

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          41.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           27.6%
 3       New York Islanders            20.6%
 4       Montreal Canadiens            10.1%