McDonald NHL Power Ratings – Playoff Report, May 4, 2022

There were four more games last night, and now each series has played 1 game. Two games saw lower-seeded teams defeating higher-seeded ones, and one of those took almost 106 minutes before it was over!

In the first game of the night, the New York Rangers hosted Pittsburgh. This game was a story of goalies, as the game went into triple overtime before Pittsburgh finally finished off a 4-3 victory. For the losing Rangers, goalie Igor Shesterkin set a Rangers record with 79 saves! That surpassed the old record of 56 saves, set by Gump Worsley way back in the 1962 playoffs. Gump was one of my first two favourite players when I was a little kid (Jean Beliveau was the other), and incidentally, he had also played for the Saskatoon Quakers; I remember seeing his picture in the entrance to the old Saskatoon Arena. Interestingly enough, during his time in Saskatoon, he was also a star soccer player, and played in a game between the Saskatoon All-Stars and Tottenham Hotspur!

But enough about Gump! In last night’s game, Louis Domingue, Pittsburgh’s 3rd-string goalie, came off the bench in the middle of the second overtime to replace starter and 2nd-string goalie Casey DeSmith who had to leave after suffering a lower-body injury. By the way, 1st-string goalie Tristan Jarry has been out with an injury for the last 3 weeks. Anyways, Domingue finished off the game with 17 saves and Evgeni Malkin scored 5:58 into the third overtime period to win the game for Pittsburgh. With the win, Pittsburgh is now our favourite to win this series, as we’re giving them a 62.2% chance of winning it.

The rest of the games only took 60 minutes to play, starting with Washington facing Florida. After being down 2-1 after two periods, Washington scored three goals in the 3rd, the last being an empty-netter, to take the victory and a 1-0 lead in the series. Washington, the 2nd wildcard team in the Eastern Conference, now has a 55.7% chance of defeating President’s Trophy winning top-seed Florida. That President’s Trophy is cursed, I tell you!

Over to the Western Conference, Colorado shook off their late-season slump to defeat Nashville 7-2. Colorado scored early and often, potting 5 goals in the first period. Nashville’s top goalie, Juuse Saros, is currently injured, and the Avalanche took advantage, chasing David Rittich after just 15 minutes. We’re now giving Colorado an 84.4% chance of winning this series.

In the final game of the night, Calgary defeated Dallas 1-0, with the only goal of the game coming on a powerplay in the first period. Jacob Markstrom got the shutout for Calgary, stopping 16 shots. Markstrom led the league with 9 shutouts in the regular season. For the Stars, Jake Oettinger stopped 25 of Calgary’s 26 shots, but it just wasn’t enough. We’ve now calculated that Calgary has an 82.5% chance of winning the series.

Yesterday’s Games

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Pittsburgh (3rd in Metropolitan, 103 pts)

Pittsburgh 4 at NY Rangers 3 (3OT)

Pittsburgh leads series 1-0
Pittsburgh now has a 62.2% chance of winning the series, up from 41.8%

Series schedule:

May 3: Pittsburgh 4 at NY Rangers 3 (3OT)
May 5: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers
May 7: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh
May 9: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh
May 11: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers (if necessary)
May 13: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh (if necessary)
May 15: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers (if necessary)

New simulation results:

NY Rangers has a 37.8% chance of winning (▼20.4)
- In 4 games: 0.0% (▼9.7)
- In 5 games: 8.3% (▼9.1)
- In 6 games: 12.7% (▼2.4)
- In 7 games: 16.8% (▲0.8)
Pittsburgh has a 62.2% chance of winning (▲20.4)
- In 7 games: 12.0% (▲0.6)
- In 6 games: 19.0% (▲4.6)
- In 5 games: 16.7% (▲6.7)
- In 4 games: 14.5% (▲8.6)

Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Washington (4th in Metropolitan, 100 pts)

Washington 4 at Florida 2

Washington leads series 1-0
Washington now has a 55.7% chance of winning the series, up from 34.7%

Series schedule:

May 3: Washington 4 at Florida 2
May 5: Washington at Florida
May 7: Florida at Washington
May 9: Florida at Washington
May 11: Washington at Florida (if necessary)
May 13: Florida at Washington (if necessary)
May 15: Washington at Florida (if necessary)

New simulation results:

Florida has a 44.3% chance of winning (▼21.0)
- In 4 games: 0.0% (▼12.6)
- In 5 games: 10.7% (▼9.5)
- In 6 games: 15.0% (▼1.3)
- In 7 games: 18.5% (▲2.3)
Washington has a 55.7% chance of winning (▲21.0)
- In 7 games: 11.5% (▲1.3)
- In 6 games: 17.7% (▲5.5)
- In 5 games: 14.4% (▲6.6)
- In 4 games: 12.1% (▲7.6)

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Nashville (5th in Central, 97 pts)

Nashville 2 at Colorado 7

Colorado leads series 1-0
Colorado now has an 84.4% chance of winning the series, up from 74.5%

Series schedule:

May 3: Nashville 2 at Colorado 7
May 5: Nashville at Colorado
May 7: Colorado at Nashville
May 9: Colorado at Nashville
May 11: Nashville at Colorado (if necessary)
May 13: Colorado at Nashville (if necessary)
May 15: Nashville at Colorado (if necessary)

New simulation results:

Colorado has a 84.4% chance of winning (▲9.9)
- In 4 games: 25.3% (▲8.1)
- In 5 games: 29.1% (▲4.7)
- In 6 games: 17.0% (▼0.5)
- In 7 games: 13.0% (▼2.4)
Nashville has a 15.6% chance of winning (▼9.9)
- In 7 games: 7.0% (▼1.2)
- In 6 games: 6.2% (▼2.9)
- In 5 games: 2.5% (▼2.8)
- In 4 games: 0.0% (▼2.8)

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Dallas (4th in Central, 98 pts)

Dallas 0 at Calgary 1

Calgary leads series 1-0
Calgary now has a 82.5% chance of winning the series, up from 71.8%

Series schedule:

May 3: Dallas 0 at Calgary 1
May 5: Dallas at Calgary
May 7: Calgary at Dallas
May 9: Calgary at Dallas
May 11: Dallas at Calgary (if necessary)
May 13: Calgary at Dallas (if necessary)
May 15: Dallas at Calgary (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Calgary has a 82.5% chance of winning (▲10.7)
- In 4 games: 23.6% (▲8.0)
- In 5 games: 28.2% (▲5.0)
- In 6 games: 17.1% (▼0.1)
- In 7 games: 13.6% (▼2.2)
Dallas has a 17.5% chance of winning (▼10.7)
- In 7 games: 7.7% (▼1.2)
- In 6 games: 7.0% (▼3.1)
- In 5 games: 2.8% (▼3.2)
- In 4 games: 0.0% (▼3.3)

Today’s Games

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. Boston (4th in Atlantic, 107 pts)

Boston at Carolina

Carolina leads series 1-0
Carolina has a 74.7% chance of winning the series

Toronto (2nd in Atlantic, 115 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Tampa Bay at Toronto

Toronto leads series 1-0
Toronto has a 75.5% chance of winning the series

Minnesota (2nd in Central, 113 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

St. Louis at Minnesota

St. Louis leads series 1-0
St. Louis has a 69.5% chance of winning the series

Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts) vs. Los Angeles (3rd in Pacific, 99 pts)

Los Angeles at Edmonton

Los Angeles leads series 1-0
Los Angeles has a 61.7% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference

Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Washington (4th in Metropolitan, 100 pts)

Washington leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Florida 44%, Washington 56%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Florida: 1581, 6th overall
Washington: 1530, 14th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

Florida: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win
Washington: 1 regulation win

Last 10 regular season games:

Florida: 7-3-0
Washington: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

May 3: Washington 4 at Florida 2
May 5: Washington at Florida
May 7: Florida at Washington
May 9: Florida at Washington
May 11: Washington at Florida (if necessary)
May 13: Florida at Washington (if necessary)
May 15: Washington at Florida (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Florida has a 44.3% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 10.7%
- In 6 games: 15.0%
- In 7 games: 18.5%
Washington has a 55.7% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 11.5%
- In 6 games: 17.7%
- In 5 games: 14.4%
- In 4 games: 12.1%

Toronto (2nd in Atlantic, 115 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Toronto leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Toronto 76%, Tampa Bay 24%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Toronto: 1598, 2nd overall
Tampa Bay: 1560, 10th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

Toronto: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win
Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Toronto: 7-2-1
Tampa Bay: 7-3-0

Series schedule:

May 2: Tampa Bay 0 at Toronto 5
May 4: Tampa Bay at Toronto
May 6: Toronto at Tampa Bay
May 8: Toronto at Tampa Bay
May 10: Tampa Bay at Toronto (if necessary)
May 12: Toronto at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
May 14: Tampa Bay at Toronto (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Toronto has a 75.5% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 18.3%
- In 5 games: 25.1%
- In 6 games: 16.9%
- In 7 games: 15.1%
Tampa Bay has a 24.5% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 10.2%
- In 6 games: 9.9%
- In 5 games: 4.4%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. Boston (4th in Atlantic, 107 pts)

Carolina leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Carolina 75%, Boston 25%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Carolina: 1593, 3rd overall
Boston: 1559, 11th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

Carolina: 3 regulation wins
Boston: 0 wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Carolina: 8-2-0
Boston: 6-4-0

Series schedule:

May 2: Boston 1 at Carolina 5
May 4: Boston at Carolina
May 6: Carolina at Boston
May 8: Carolina at Boston
May 10: Boston at Carolina (if necessary)
May 12: Carolina at Boston (if necessary)
May 14: Boston at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Carolina has a 74.7% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 18.1%
- In 5 games: 24.5%
- In 6 games: 16.9%
- In 7 games: 15.1%
Boston has a 25.3% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 10.4%
- In 6 games: 10.2%
- In 5 games: 4.7%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Pittsburgh (3rd in Metropolitan, 103 pts)

Pittsburgh leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: NY Rangers 38%, Pittsburgh 62%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

NY Rangers: 1564, 8th overall
Pittsburgh: 1540, 12th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

NY Rangers: 3 regulation wins
Pittsburgh: 1 regulation win

Last 10 regular season games:

NY Rangers: 6-4-0
Pittsburgh: 5-4-1

Series schedule:

May 3: Pittsburgh 4 at NY Rangers 3 (3OT)
May 5: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers
May 7: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh
May 9: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh
May 11: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers (if necessary)
May 13: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh (if necessary)
May 15: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers (if necessary)

Simulation results:

NY Rangers has a 37.8% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 8.3%
- In 6 games: 12.7%
- In 7 games: 16.8%
Pittsburgh has a 62.2% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 12.0%
- In 6 games: 19.0%
- In 5 games: 16.7%
- In 4 games: 14.5%

Western Conference

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Nashville (5th in Central, 97 pts)

Colorado leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Colorado 84%, Nashville 16%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Colorado: 1601, 1st overall
Nashville: 1512, 17th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

Colorado: 1 regulation win
Nashville: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win

Last 10 regular season games:

Colorado: 4-5-1
Nashville: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

May 3: Nashville 2 at Colorado 7
May 5: Nashville at Colorado
May 7: Colorado at Nashville
May 9: Colorado at Nashville
May 11: Nashville at Colorado (if necessary)
May 13: Colorado at Nashville (if necessary)
May 15: Nashville at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Colorado has a 84.4% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 25.3%
- In 5 games: 29.1%
- In 6 games: 17.0%
- In 7 games: 13.0%
Nashville has a 15.6% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 7.0%
- In 6 games: 6.2%
- In 5 games: 2.5%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Minnesota (2nd in Central, 113 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

St. Louis leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Minnesota 30%, St. Louis 70%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Minnesota: 1575, 7th overall
St. Louis: 1582, 5th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

Minnesota: 0 wins
St. Louis: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Minnesota: 8-1-1
St. Louis: 7-2-1

Series schedule:

May 2: St. Louis 4 at Minnesota 0
May 4: St. Louis at Minnesota
May 6: Minnesota at St. Louis
May 8: Minnesota at St. Louis
May 10: St. Louis at Minnesota (if necessary)
May 12: Minnesota at St. Louis (if necessary)
May 14: St. Louis at Minnesota (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Minnesota has a 30.5% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 6.1%
- In 6 games: 9.9%
- In 7 games: 14.5%
St. Louis has a 69.5% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 11.6%
- In 6 games: 20.0%
- In 5 games: 19.3%
- In 4 games: 18.5%

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Dallas (4th in Central, 98 pts)

Calgary leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Calgary 83%, Dallas 17%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Calgary: 1586, 4th overall
Dallas: 1509, 18th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

Calgary: 2 regulation wins
Dallas: 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

Calgary: 6-2-2
Dallas: 5-3-2

Series schedule:

May 3: Dallas 0 at Calgary 1
May 5: Dallas at Calgary
May 7: Calgary at Dallas
May 9: Calgary at Dallas
May 11: Dallas at Calgary (if necessary)
May 13: Calgary at Dallas (if necessary)
May 15: Dallas at Calgary (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Calgary has a 82.5% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 23.6%
- In 5 games: 28.2%
- In 6 games: 17.1%
- In 7 games: 13.6%
Dallas has a 17.5% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 7.7%
- In 6 games: 7.0%
- In 5 games: 2.8%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts) vs. Los Angeles (3rd in Pacific, 99 pts)

Los Angeles leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Edmonton 38%, Los Angeles 62%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Edmonton: 1561, 9th overall
Los Angeles: 1534, 13th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

Edmonton: 2 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
Los Angeles: 1 regulation win

Last 10 regular season games:

Edmonton: 7-2-1
Los Angeles: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

May 2: Los Angeles 4 at Edmonton 3
May 4: Los Angeles at Edmonton
May 6: Edmonton at Los Angeles
May 8: Edmonton at Los Angeles
May 10: Los Angeles at Edmonton (if necessary)
May 12: Edmonton at Los Angeles (if necessary)
May 14: Los Angeles at Edmonton (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Edmonton has a 38.3% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 8.4%
- In 6 games: 12.7%
- In 7 games: 17.1%
Los Angeles has a 61.7% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 11.8%
- In 6 games: 19.0%
- In 5 games: 16.5%
- In 4 games: 14.4%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the first-round playoffs started.

 1       Colorado Avalanche            14.1%
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs           11.1%
 3       Carolina Hurricanes           10.9%
 4       Calgary Flames                10.6%
 5       Florida Panthers               9.1%
 6       St. Louis Blues                7.4%
 7       Minnesota Wild                 6.9%
 8       New York Rangers               5.6%
 9       Edmonton Oilers                5.5%
10       Tampa Bay Lightning            4.4%
11       Boston Bruins                  4.3%
12       Pittsburgh Penguins            2.9%
13       Los Angeles Kings              2.6%
14       Washington Capitals            2.1%
15       Dallas Stars                   1.3%
16       Nashville Predators            1.2%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – Playoff Report, May 3, 2022

The playoffs have started! In last night’s games, as could probably be expected in first-round games, there was only one close game. What was surprising, though, was one of those non-close games was an upset!

In the first game of the night, Carolina beat Boston 5-1. Carolina is the top-seeded team in this matchup, and they were playing at home, so this wasn’t much of a surprise. Goalie Antti Raanta was the star of the game, getting the win in his first career playoff start. He’s the Hurricane’s backup goalie, starting in place of Frederik Andersen who is out with a lower-body injury. Five separate players scored for Carolina. Carolina was our favourite going into this series, and we’ve calculated that they now have a 74.7% chance of winning the series.

The second game featured defending two-time Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay in Toronto to face the Maple Leafs. Heavy underdogs because they can’t seem to win in the playoffs, Toronto silenced their critics with a strong 5-0 shutout. Auston Matthews, this year’s league-leading goal scorer, scored twice and assisted once for Toronto, while linemate Mitchell Marner scored once and assisted twice. Jack Campbell earned the shutout, making 24 saves. The boys in the back room now figure that Toronto has a 75.5% chance of winning the series, although they don’t seem to be taking into account the Curse of Harold Ballard.

Over in the Western Conference, St. Louis got the second shutout of the night, beating Minnesota 4-0 on the road. Although Minnesota is the higher-seeded team, we were giving St. Louis a slight edge to win the series. We’ve now calculated their chances of winning increased to 69.5%, up from 50.2%. The big star for the Blues was David Perron, who scored his first career playoff hat trick, with two powerplay goals and an even-strength goal. Ville Husso had a busy night in net for St. Louis, stopping 37 shots to earn the shutout.

In the night’s final game, Los Angeles upset Edmonton 4-3. With the scored tied 3-3 with 5 minutes left in regulation time, Edmonton goalie Mike Smith turned the puck over trying to clear the puck, and the Kings took advantage of the unforced error to score the winning goal. Although Edmonton is the higher-seeded team, with the upset, we’re now giving LA a 61.7% chance of winning the series.

There four games on tap tonight, as the remaining four series start. The New York Rangers host Pittsburgh, Washington entertains Florida (I always like when sportscasters say a team entertains another — I imaging them juggling balls!), Nashville visits Colorado, and Dallas travels to Calgary.

Yesterday’s Games

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. Boston (4th in Atlantic, 107 pts)

Boston 1 at Carolina 5

Carolina leads series 1-0
Carolina now has a 74.7% chance of winning the series, up from 60.7%

Series schedule:

May 2: Boston 1 at Carolina 5
May 4: Boston at Carolina
May 6: Carolina at Boston
May 8: Carolina at Boston
May 10: Boston at Carolina (if necessary)
May 12: Carolina at Boston (if necessary)
May 14: Boston at Carolina (if necessary)

New simulation results:

Carolina has a 74.7% chance of winning (▲14.0)
- In 4 games: 18.1% (▲7.3)
- In 5 games: 24.5% (▲6.2)
- In 6 games: 16.9% (▲1.5)
- In 7 games: 15.1% (▼1.0)
Boston has a 25.3% chance of winning (▼14.0)
- In 7 games: 10.4% (▼0.6)
- In 6 games: 10.2% (▼3.4)
- In 5 games: 4.7% (▼4.5)
- In 4 games: 0.0% (▼5.5)

Toronto (2nd in Atlantic, 115 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Tampa Bay 0 at Toronto 5

Toronto leads series 1-0
Toronto now has a 75.5% chance of winning the series, up from 62.2%

Series schedule:

May 2: Tampa Bay 0 at Toronto 5
May 4: Tampa Bay at Toronto
May 6: Toronto at Tampa Bay
May 8: Toronto at Tampa Bay
May 10: Tampa Bay at Toronto (if necessary)
May 12: Toronto at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
May 14: Tampa Bay at Toronto (if necessary)

New simulation results:

Toronto has a 75.5% chance of winning (▲13.3)
- In 4 games: 18.3% (▲7.1)
- In 5 games: 25.1% (▲6.0)
- In 6 games: 16.9% (▲1.2)
- In 7 games: 15.1% (▼1.2)
Tampa Bay has a 24.5% chance of winning (▼13.3)
- In 7 games: 10.2% (▼0.6)
- In 6 games: 9.9% (▼3.3)
- In 5 games: 4.4% (▼4.3)
- In 4 games: 0.0% (▼5.0)

Minnesota (2nd in Central, 113 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

St. Louis 4 at Minnesota 0

St. Louis leads series 1-0
St. Louis now has a 69.5% chance of winning the series, up from 50.2%

Series schedule:

May 2: St. Louis 4 at Minnesota 0
May 4: St. Louis at Minnesota
May 6: Minnesota at St. Louis
May 8: Minnesota at St. Louis
May 10: St. Louis at Minnesota (if necessary)
May 12: Minnesota at St. Louis (if necessary)
May 14: St. Louis at Minnesota (if necessary)

New simulation results:

Minnesota has a 30.5% chance of winning (▼19.3)
- In 4 games: 0.0% (▼7.2)
- In 5 games: 6.1% (▼8.2)
- In 6 games: 9.9% (▼3.3)
- In 7 games: 14.5% (▼0.6)
St. Louis has a 69.5% chance of winning (▲19.3)
- In 7 games: 11.6% (▼0.9)
- In 6 games: 20.0% (▲3.2)
- In 5 games: 19.3% (▲6.7)
- In 4 games: 18.5% (▲10.2)

Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts) vs. Los Angeles (3rd in Pacific, 99 pts)

Los Angeles 4 at Edmonton 3

Los Angeles leads series 1-0
Los Angeles now has a 61.7% chance of winning the series, up from 40.9%

Series schedule:

May 2: Los Angeles 4 at Edmonton 3
May 4: Los Angeles at Edmonton
May 6: Edmonton at Los Angeles
May 8: Edmonton at Los Angeles
May 10: Los Angeles at Edmonton (if necessary)
May 12: Edmonton at Los Angeles (if necessary)
May 14: Los Angeles at Edmonton (if necessary)

New simulation results:

Edmonton has a 38.3% chance of winning (▼20.8)
- In 4 games: 0.0% (▼10.3)
- In 5 games: 8.4% (▼9.3)
- In 6 games: 12.7% (▼2.4)
- In 7 games: 17.1% (▲1.0)
Los Angeles has a 61.7% chance of winning (▲20.8)
- In 7 games: 11.8% (▲0.5)
- In 6 games: 19.0% (▲4.8)
- In 5 games: 16.5% (▲6.8)
- In 4 games: 14.4% (▲8.6)

Today’s Games

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Pittsburgh (3rd in Metropolitan, 103 pts)

Pittsburgh at NY Rangers

Series tied 0-0
NY Rangers have a 58.2% chance of winning the series

Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Washington (4th in Metropolitan, 100 pts)

Washington at Florida

Series tied 0-0
Florida has a 65.3% chance of winning the series

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Nashville (5th in Central, 97 pts)

Nashville at Colorado

Series tied 0-0
Colorado has a 74.5% chance of winning the series

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Dallas (4th in Central, 98 pts)

Dallas at Calgary

Series tied 0-0
Calgary has a 71.8% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference

Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Washington (4th in Metropolitan, 100 pts)

Chances of winning: Florida 65%, Washington 35%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Florida: 1581, 6th overall
Washington: 1530, 14th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

Florida: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win
Washington: 1 regulation win

Last 10 regular season games:

Florida: 7-3-0
Washington: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

May 3: Washington at Florida
May 5: Washington at Florida
May 7: Florida at Washington
May 9: Florida at Washington
May 11: Washington at Florida (if necessary)
May 13: Florida at Washington (if necessary)
May 15: Washington at Florida (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Florida has a 65.3% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 12.6%
- In 5 games: 20.2%
- In 6 games: 16.3%
- In 7 games: 16.2%
Washington has a 34.7% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 10.2%
- In 6 games: 12.2%
- In 5 games: 7.8%
- In 4 games: 4.5%

Toronto (2nd in Atlantic, 115 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Toronto leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Toronto 76%, Tampa Bay 24%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Toronto: 1598, 2nd overall
Tampa Bay: 1560, 10th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

Toronto: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win
Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Toronto: 7-2-1
Tampa Bay: 7-3-0

Series schedule:

May 2: Tampa Bay 0 at Toronto 5
May 4: Tampa Bay at Toronto
May 6: Toronto at Tampa Bay
May 8: Toronto at Tampa Bay
May 10: Tampa Bay at Toronto (if necessary)
May 12: Toronto at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
May 14: Tampa Bay at Toronto (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Toronto has a 75.5% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 18.3%
- In 5 games: 25.1%
- In 6 games: 16.9%
- In 7 games: 15.1%
Tampa Bay has a 24.5% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 10.2%
- In 6 games: 9.9%
- In 5 games: 4.4%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. Boston (4th in Atlantic, 107 pts)

Carolina leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Carolina 75%, Boston 25%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Carolina: 1593, 3rd overall
Boston: 1559, 11th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

Carolina: 3 regulation wins
Boston: 0 wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Carolina: 8-2-0
Boston: 6-4-0

Series schedule:

May 2: Boston 1 at Carolina 5
May 4: Boston at Carolina
May 6: Carolina at Boston
May 8: Carolina at Boston
May 10: Boston at Carolina (if necessary)
May 12: Carolina at Boston (if necessary)
May 14: Boston at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Carolina has a 74.7% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 18.1%
- In 5 games: 24.5%
- In 6 games: 16.9%
- In 7 games: 15.1%
Boston has a 25.3% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 10.4%
- In 6 games: 10.2%
- In 5 games: 4.7%
- In 4 games: 0.0%

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Pittsburgh (3rd in Metropolitan, 103 pts)

Chances of winning: NY Rangers 58%, Pittsburgh 42%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

NY Rangers: 1564, 8th overall
Pittsburgh: 1540, 12th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

NY Rangers: 3 regulation wins
Pittsburgh: 1 regulation win

Last 10 regular season games:

NY Rangers: 6-4-0
Pittsburgh: 5-4-1

Series schedule:

May 3: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers
May 5: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers
May 7: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh
May 9: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh
May 11: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers (if necessary)
May 13: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh (if necessary)
May 15: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers (if necessary)

Simulation results:

NY Rangers has a 58.2% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 9.7%
- In 5 games: 17.4%
- In 6 games: 15.1%
- In 7 games: 16.0%
Pittsburgh has a 41.8% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 11.4%
- In 6 games: 14.4%
- In 5 games: 10.0%
- In 4 games: 5.9%

Western Conference

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Nashville (5th in Central, 97 pts)

Chances of winning: Colorado 75%, Nashville 25%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Colorado: 1601, 1st overall
Nashville: 1512, 17th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

Colorado: 1 regulation win
Nashville: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win

Last 10 regular season games:

Colorado: 4-5-1
Nashville: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

May 3: Nashville at Colorado
May 5: Nashville at Colorado
May 7: Colorado at Nashville
May 9: Colorado at Nashville
May 11: Nashville at Colorado (if necessary)
May 13: Colorado at Nashville (if necessary)
May 15: Nashville at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Colorado has a 74.5% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 17.2%
- In 5 games: 24.4%
- In 6 games: 17.5%
- In 7 games: 15.4%
Nashville has a 25.5% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 8.2%
- In 6 games: 9.1%
- In 5 games: 5.3%
- In 4 games: 2.8%

Minnesota (2nd in Central, 113 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

St. Louis leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Minnesota 30%, St. Louis 70%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Minnesota: 1575, 7th overall
St. Louis: 1582, 5th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

Minnesota: 0 wins
St. Louis: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins

Last 10 regular season games:

Minnesota: 8-1-1
St. Louis: 7-2-1

Series schedule:

May 2: St. Louis 4 at Minnesota 0
May 4: St. Louis at Minnesota
May 6: Minnesota at St. Louis
May 8: Minnesota at St. Louis
May 10: St. Louis at Minnesota (if necessary)
May 12: Minnesota at St. Louis (if necessary)
May 14: St. Louis at Minnesota (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Minnesota has a 30.5% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 6.1%
- In 6 games: 9.9%
- In 7 games: 14.5%
St. Louis has a 69.5% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 11.6%
- In 6 games: 20.0%
- In 5 games: 19.3%
- In 4 games: 18.5%

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Dallas (4th in Central, 98 pts)

Chances of winning: Calgary 72%, Dallas 28%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Calgary: 1586, 4th overall
Dallas: 1509, 18th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

Calgary: 2 regulation wins
Dallas: 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

Calgary: 6-2-2
Dallas: 5-3-2

Series schedule:

May 3: Dallas at Calgary
May 5: Dallas at Calgary
May 7: Calgary at Dallas
May 9: Calgary at Dallas
May 11: Dallas at Calgary (if necessary)
May 13: Calgary at Dallas (if necessary)
May 15: Dallas at Calgary (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Calgary has a 71.8% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 15.6%
- In 5 games: 23.2%
- In 6 games: 17.2%
- In 7 games: 15.8%
Dallas has a 28.2% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 8.9%
- In 6 games: 10.1%
- In 5 games: 6.0%
- In 4 games: 3.3%

Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts) vs. Los Angeles (3rd in Pacific, 99 pts)

Los Angeles leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Edmonton 59%, Los Angeles 41%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Edmonton: 1561, 9th overall
Los Angeles: 1534, 13th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

Edmonton: 2 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
Los Angeles: 1 regulation win

Last 10 regular season games:

Edmonton: 7-2-1
Los Angeles: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

May 2: Los Angeles 4 at Edmonton 3
May 4: Los Angeles at Edmonton
May 6: Edmonton at Los Angeles
May 8: Edmonton at Los Angeles
May 10: Los Angeles at Edmonton (if necessary)
May 12: Edmonton at Los Angeles (if necessary)
May 14: Los Angeles at Edmonton (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Edmonton has a 59.1% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 10.3%
- In 5 games: 17.7%
- In 6 games: 15.1%
- In 7 games: 16.1%
Los Angeles has a 40.9% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 11.3%
- In 6 games: 14.2%
- In 5 games: 9.7%
- In 4 games: 5.8%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the first-round playoffs started.

 1       Colorado Avalanche            14.1%
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs           11.1%
 3       Carolina Hurricanes           10.9%
 4       Calgary Flames                10.6%
 5       Florida Panthers               9.1%
 6       St. Louis Blues                7.4%
 7       Minnesota Wild                 6.9%
 8       New York Rangers               5.6%
 9       Edmonton Oilers                5.5%
10       Tampa Bay Lightning            4.4%
11       Boston Bruins                  4.3%
12       Pittsburgh Penguins            2.9%
13       Los Angeles Kings              2.6%
14       Washington Capitals            2.1%
15       Dallas Stars                   1.3%
16       Nashville Predators            1.2%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – Playoff Preview

The NHL regular season has wrapped up, and it’s time for the playoffs! All of the first-round playoff games have been scheduled, so we know who’s playing where and when. Using the McDonald NHL Power Ratings, we’ve run a million simulations of each playoff series, and here’s what we’ve seen as a result.

Overall, we think that Colorado has the best chance of winning the Stanley Cup. They are the top-ranked team in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings, and we’re giving them a 14.1% chance of winning it all. However, they were the favourite last year, and they didn’t even make the finals, so we’ll see what happens this year. The President’s Trophy-winning team, the Florida Panthers, are ranked 6th in our Ratings, and we’re giving them a 9.1% chance of winning the Stanley Cup, although that President’s Trophy does seem to be a curse! Toronto, another cursed team, have the second-best chance of winning the Cup, as we’ve calculated that they’ve got an 11.1% chance of winning it.

The closest playoff matchup in the first round is Minnesota against St. Louis. It’s pretty much a toss-up, although we’re giving St. Louis the slightest of edges, with a 50.2% chance of winning the series versus Minnesota’s 49.8% chance! The most-lopsided matchup is Colorado vs. Nashville, and we’re giving Colorado a 74.5% chance of winning that one. But, that still means that Nashville has about a 1 in 4 chance of upsetting our top-ranked team, so it’s definitely not out of the realm of possibility.

Two final interesting (to me, at least) stats:

there is a 50.4% chance of an Eastern Conference team winning the Stanley Cup, versus a 49.6% chance of a Western Conference team winning it
there is a 27.2% chance of a Canadian team winning the Stanley Cup

Here’s our summary!

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference

Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Washington (4th in Metropolitan, 100 pts)

Chances of winning: Florida 65%, Washington 35%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Florida: 1581, 6th overall
Washington: 1530, 14th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

Florida: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win
Washington: 1 regulation win

Last 10 games:

Florida: 7-3-0
Washington: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

May 3: Washington at Florida
May 5: Washington at Florida
May 7: Florida at Washington
May 9: Florida at Washington
May 11: Washington at Florida (if necessary)
May 13: Florida at Washington (if necessary)
May 15: Washington at Florida (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Florida has a 65.3% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 12.6%
- In 5 games: 20.2%
- In 6 games: 16.3%
- In 7 games: 16.2%
Washington has a 34.7% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 10.2%
- In 6 games: 12.2%
- In 5 games: 7.8%
- In 4 games: 4.5%

Toronto (2nd in Atlantic, 115 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Chances of winning: Toronto 62%, Tampa Bay 38%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Toronto: 1598, 2nd overall
Tampa Bay: 1560, 10th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

Toronto: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win
Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 games:

Toronto: 7-2-1
Tampa Bay: 7-3-0

Series schedule:

May 2: Tampa Bay at Toronto
May 4: Tampa Bay at Toronto
May 6: Toronto at Tampa Bay
May 8: Toronto at Tampa Bay
May 10: Tampa Bay at Toronto (if necessary)
May 12: Toronto at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
May 14: Tampa Bay at Toronto (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Toronto has a 62.2% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 11.2%
- In 5 games: 19.1%
- In 6 games: 15.7%
- In 7 games: 16.3%
Tampa Bay has a 37.8% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 10.8%
- In 6 games: 13.2%
- In 5 games: 8.7%
- In 4 games: 5.0%

Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. Boston (4th in Atlantic, 107 pts)

Chances of winning: Carolina 61%, Boston 39%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Carolina: 1593, 3rd overall
Boston: 1559, 11th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

Carolina: 3 regulation wins
Boston: 0 wins

Last 10 games:

Carolina: 8-2-0
Boston: 6-4-0

Series schedule:

May 2: Boston at Carolina
May 4: Boston at Carolina
May 6: Carolina at Boston
May 8: Carolina at Boston
May 10: Boston at Carolina (if necessary)
May 12: Carolina at Boston (if necessary)
May 14: Boston at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Carolina has a 60.7% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 10.8%
- In 5 games: 18.3%
- In 6 games: 15.4%
- In 7 games: 16.1%
Boston has a 39.3% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 11.0%
- In 6 games: 13.6%
- In 5 games: 9.2%
- In 4 games: 5.5%

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Pittsburgh (3rd in Metropolitan, 103 pts)

Chances of winning: NY Rangers 58%, Pittsburgh 42%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

NY Rangers: 1564, 8th overall
Pittsburgh: 1540, 12th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

NY Rangers: 3 regulation wins
Pittsburgh: 1 regulation win

Last 10 games:

NY Rangers: 6-4-0
Pittsburgh: 5-4-1

Series schedule:

May 3: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers
May 5: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers
May 7: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh
May 9: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh
May 11: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers (if necessary)
May 13: NY Rangers at Pittsburgh (if necessary)
May 15: Pittsburgh at NY Rangers (if necessary)

Simulation results:

NY Rangers has a 58.2% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 9.7%
- In 5 games: 17.4%
- In 6 games: 15.1%
- In 7 games: 16.0%
Pittsburgh has a 41.8% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 11.4%
- In 6 games: 14.4%
- In 5 games: 10.0%
- In 4 games: 5.9%

Western Conference

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Nashville (5th in Central, 97 pts)

Chances of winning: Colorado 75%, Nashville 25%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Colorado: 1601, 1st overall
Nashville: 1512, 17th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

Colorado: 1 regulation win
Nashville: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win

Last 10 games:

Colorado: 4-5-1
Nashville: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

May 3: Nashville at Colorado
May 5: Nashville at Colorado
May 7: Colorado at Nashville
May 9: Colorado at Nashville
May 11: Nashville at Colorado (if necessary)
May 13: Colorado at Nashville (if necessary)
May 15: Nashville at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Colorado has a 74.5% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 17.2%
- In 5 games: 24.4%
- In 6 games: 17.5%
- In 7 games: 15.4%
Nashville has a 25.5% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 8.2%
- In 6 games: 9.1%
- In 5 games: 5.3%
- In 4 games: 2.8%

Minnesota (2nd in Central, 113 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)

Chances of winning: Minnesota 50%, St. Louis 50%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Minnesota: 1575, 7th overall
St. Louis: 1582, 5th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

Minnesota: 0 wins
St. Louis: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins

Last 10 games:

Minnesota: 8-1-1
St. Louis: 7-2-1

Series schedule:

May 2: St. Louis at Minnesota
May 4: St. Louis at Minnesota
May 6: Minnesota at St. Louis
May 8: Minnesota at St. Louis
May 10: St. Louis at Minnesota (if necessary)
May 12: Minnesota at St. Louis (if necessary)
May 14: St. Louis at Minnesota (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Minnesota has a 49.8% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 7.2%
- In 5 games: 14.3%
- In 6 games: 13.2%
- In 7 games: 15.1%
St. Louis has a 50.2% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 12.5%
- In 6 games: 16.8%
- In 5 games: 12.6%
- In 4 games: 8.3%

Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Dallas (4th in Central, 98 pts)

Chances of winning: Calgary 72%, Dallas 28%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Calgary: 1586, 4th overall
Dallas: 1509, 18th overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

Calgary: 2 regulation wins
Dallas: 1 overtime win

Last 10 games:

Calgary: 6-2-2
Dallas: 5-3-2

Series schedule:

May 3: Dallas at Calgary
May 5: Dallas at Calgary
May 7: Calgary at Dallas
May 9: Calgary at Dallas
May 11: Dallas at Calgary (if necessary)
May 13: Calgary at Dallas (if necessary)
May 15: Dallas at Calgary (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Calgary has a 71.8% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 15.6%
- In 5 games: 23.2%
- In 6 games: 17.2%
- In 7 games: 15.8%
Dallas has a 28.2% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 8.9%
- In 6 games: 10.1%
- In 5 games: 6.0%
- In 4 games: 3.3%

Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts) vs. Los Angeles (3rd in Pacific, 99 pts)

Chances of winning: Edmonton 59%, Los Angeles 41%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

Edmonton: 1561, 9th overall
Los Angeles: 1534, 13th overall

Head-to-head this year (4 games):

Edmonton: 2 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
Los Angeles: 1 regulation win

Last 10 games:

Edmonton: 7-2-1
Los Angeles: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

May 2: Los Angeles at Edmonton
May 4: Los Angeles at Edmonton
May 6: Edmonton at Los Angeles
May 8: Edmonton at Los Angeles
May 10: Los Angeles at Edmonton (if necessary)
May 12: Edmonton at Los Angeles (if necessary)
May 14: Los Angeles at Edmonton (if necessary)

Simulation results:

Edmonton has a 59.1% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 10.3%
- In 5 games: 17.7%
- In 6 games: 15.1%
- In 7 games: 16.1%
Los Angeles has a 40.9% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 11.3%
- In 6 games: 14.2%
- In 5 games: 9.7%
- In 4 games: 5.8%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            14.1%
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs           11.1%
 3       Carolina Hurricanes           10.9%
 4       Calgary Flames                10.6%
 5       Florida Panthers               9.1%
 6       St. Louis Blues                7.4%
 7       Minnesota Wild                 6.9%
 8       New York Rangers               5.6%
 9       Edmonton Oilers                5.5%
10       Tampa Bay Lightning            4.4%
11       Boston Bruins                  4.3%
12       Pittsburgh Penguins            2.9%
13       Los Angeles Kings              2.6%
14       Washington Capitals            2.1%
15       Dallas Stars                   1.3%
16       Nashville Predators            1.2%