The Stanley Cup champions have been crowned!  Congratulations to the Colorado Avalanche, who defeated the Tampa Bay Lightning last night by a score of 2-1, and won the Stanley Cup Final series 4 games to 2.

The game’s first goal was scored by Tampa Bay’s Steven Stamkos at 3:48 of the first period, and that was it for scoring in the first.  But, 1:54 into the second, Nathan MacKinnon scored for Colorado to tie the game up, and 10 minutes later, Artturi Lehkonen scored to put Colorado ahead.  There was no more scoring in the second period, or in the third, and Colorado won 2-1, defeating the two-time defending champions.  Surprisingly, in last night’s game, there were only two penalties, one for each team!  With the victory in Tampa Bay, Colorado finished the playoffs with an amazing 9-1 road record!

Next season’s regular season is scheduled to start on October 11th.  Until then, the boys in the back room will be concentrating on following the CFL season!

Yesterday’s Game

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Colorado 2 at Tampa Bay 1

• Colorado wins Stanley Cup 4-2

Series schedule:

• June 15: Tampa Bay 3 at Colorado 4 (OT)
• June 18: Tampa Bay 0 at Colorado 7
• June 20: Colorado 2 at Tampa Bay 6
• June 22: Colorado 3 at Tampa Bay 2 (OT)
• June 24: Tampa Bay 3 at Colorado 2
• June 26: Colorado 2 at Tampa Bay 1

Playoff Matchups

Stanley Cup Finals

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Colorado wins Stanley Cup 4-2

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1660, 1st overall
• Tampa Bay: 1616, 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (2 games):

• Colorado: 1 regulation win, 1 shootout win
• Tampa Bay: 0 wins

Previous rounds:

• Colorado:
  • defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
  • defeated St. Louis (1595, T-2nd) in 6 games
  • defeated Edmonton (1589, 3rd) in 4 games
• Tampa Bay:
  • defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
  • defeated Florida (1591, 4th) in 4 games
  • defeated NY Rangers (1581, 4th) in 6 games

Series schedule:

• June 15: Tampa Bay 3 at Colorado 4 (OT)
• June 18: Tampa Bay 0 at Colorado 7
• June 20: Colorado 2 at Tampa Bay 6
• June 22: Colorado 3 at Tampa Bay 2 (OT)
• June 24: Tampa Bay 3 at Colorado 2
• June 26: Colorado 2 at Tampa Bay 1

Well, the season’s not over yet!  Tampa Bay hasn’t given up yet on winning their third straight Stanley Cup!  With Colorado leading the series 3-1, it looked bleak for the Lightning, with Game 5 being played in the Avalanche’s home building, but Tampa Bay came through when they needed to, winning last night’s game 3-2.

Tampa Bay never trailed in the game, taking the lead 1-0 after one period.  Colorado tied it up quickly in the second, but Tampa Bay scored again to regain the lead, and that’s how the second period ended.  In the third, the Avalanche tied it up yet again 2:31 into the 3rd, but Ondrej Palat scored for Tampa Bay with 6:22 to go in the game, and they held off the Avalanche to take the game 3-2.

Colorado now leads the series 3-2, with Game 6 to be played Sunday night in Tampa Bay.  The series has been close, with each team having one blowout victory, two games going to overtime, and last night’s game being decided by a single goal in regulation time.  We are still giving Colorado the edge in the series, with Game 6 being pretty much a toss-up (we’re giving Colorado a 51% chance of winning), but we’ve calculated Colorado still has an 80.4% chance of winning the series, although that is down from 93.2% before last night’s game.

Yesterday’s Game

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Tampa Bay 3 at Colorado 2

• Colorado leads series 3-2
• Colorado now has a 80.4% chance of winning the series, down from 93.2%

Series schedule:

• June 15: Tampa Bay 3 at Colorado 4 (OT)
• June 18: Tampa Bay 0 at Colorado 7
• June 20: Colorado 2 at Tampa Bay 6
• June 22: Colorado 3 at Tampa Bay 2 (OT)
• June 24: Tampa Bay 3 at Colorado 2
• June 26: Colorado at Tampa Bay
• June 28: Tampa Bay at Colorado (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Colorado has a 80.4% chance of winning (▼12.8)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼65.0)
  • In 6 games: 51.0% (▲33.1)
  • In 7 games: 29.4% (▲19.1)
• Tampa Bay has a 19.6% chance of winning (▲12.8)
  • In 7 games: 19.6% (▲12.8)
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Sunday’s Game

Colorado at Tampa Bay

• Colorado leads series 3-2
• Colorado has a 80.4% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Stanley Cup Finals

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Colorado leads series 3-2

Chances of winning: Colorado 80.4%, Tampa Bay 19.6%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1660, 1st overall
• Tampa Bay: 1616, 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (2 games):

• Colorado: 1 regulation win, 1 shootout win
• Tampa Bay: 0 wins

Previous rounds:

• Colorado:
  • defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
  • defeated St. Louis (1595, T-2nd) in 6 games
  • defeated Edmonton (1589, 3rd) in 4 games
• Tampa Bay:
  • defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
  • defeated Florida (1591, 4th) in 4 games
  • defeated NY Rangers (1581, 4th) in 6 games

Series schedule:

• June 15: Tampa Bay 3 at Colorado 4 (OT)
• June 18: Tampa Bay 0 at Colorado 7
• June 20: Colorado 2 at Tampa Bay 6
• June 22: Colorado 3 at Tampa Bay 2 (OT)
• June 24: Tampa Bay 3 at Colorado 2
• June 26: Colorado at Tampa Bay
• June 28: Tampa Bay at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 80.4% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 51.0%
  • In 7 games: 29.4%
• Tampa Bay has a 19.6% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 19.6%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            63.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           36.3%

These chances were calculated before the final round of the playoffs.

As the great Canadian troubadour, Stompin’ Tom Connors, sang, “the best game you can name is the good old hockey game.”  And there’s no hockey better than playoff hockey.  And what can be better than playoff hockey?  Playoff hockey in overtime!

Last night’s game saw Colorado play in Tampa Bay, with a 2-1 series lead.  A win by Colorado would see them take a 3-1 lead back home, forcing Tampa Bay to win all 3 of the final 3 games, with two of those games being on the road.  However, a Tampa Bay win would even the series at 2, but again, Colorado would have an edge, as the 5th and 7th games are scheduled to be played in Colorado.

Tampa Bay started the game strong, and took a 1-0 lead only 36 seconds into the game when Anthony Cirelli scored.  They continued to dominate the game, outshooting Colorado 17-4 in the first period, but couldn’t get another shot past goalie Darcy Kuemper.  5 minutes into the second period, Nathan MacKinnon scored on a power play goal to even the score, but Tampa Bay retook the lead 5 minutes after that on Victor Hedman’s goal, and the second period ended with a 2-1 score in Tampa Bay’s favour.  Colorado tied it back up 3 minutes into the third when Andrew Cogliano tickled the twine, and that was all the scoring in regulation time.  In an exciting back-and-forth overtime period, Nazem Kadri potted the winner at 12:02 to give Colorado the victory and a 3-1 series lead.

With 2 of the next 3 games scheduled to be played in Colorado, and a big 3-1 series lead, we’ve calculated that Colorado now has a 93.2% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.  We’ve also calculated that they’ve got a 65.0% chance of winning it in 5 games.  Sadly, the end of the hockey season is in sight.

Yesterday’s Game

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Colorado 3 at Tampa Bay 2 (OT)

• Colorado leads series 3-1
• Colorado now has a 93.2% chance of winning the series, up from 77.3%

Series schedule:

• June 15: Tampa Bay 3 at Colorado 4 (OT)
• June 18: Tampa Bay 0 at Colorado 7
• June 20: Colorado 2 at Tampa Bay 6
• June 22: Colorado 3 at Tampa Bay 2 (OT)
• June 24: Tampa Bay at Colorado
• June 26: Colorado at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 28: Tampa Bay at Colorado (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Colorado has a 93.2% chance of winning (▲15.9)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 65.0% (▲31.2)
  • In 6 games: 17.9% (▼6.3)
  • In 7 games: 10.3% (▼8.9)
• Tampa Bay has a 6.8% chance of winning (▼15.9)
  • In 7 games: 6.8% (▼6.0)
  • In 6 games: 0.0% (▼9.9)
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Friday’s Game

Tampa Bay at Colorado

• Colorado leads series 3-1
• Colorado has a 93.2% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Stanley Cup Finals

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Colorado leads series 3-1

Chances of winning: Colorado 93.2%, Tampa Bay 6.8%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1660, 1st overall
• Tampa Bay: 1616, 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (2 games):

• Colorado: 1 regulation win, 1 shootout win
• Tampa Bay: 0 wins

Previous rounds:

• Colorado:
  • defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
  • defeated St. Louis (1595, T-2nd) in 6 games
  • defeated Edmonton (1589, 3rd) in 4 games
• Tampa Bay:
  • defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
  • defeated Florida (1591, 4th) in 4 games
  • defeated NY Rangers (1581, 4th) in 6 games

Series schedule:

• June 15: Tampa Bay 3 at Colorado 4 (OT)
• June 18: Tampa Bay 0 at Colorado 7
• June 20: Colorado 2 at Tampa Bay 6
• June 22: Colorado 3 at Tampa Bay 2 (OT)
• June 24: Tampa Bay at Colorado
• June 26: Colorado at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 28: Tampa Bay at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 93.2% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 65.0%
  • In 6 games: 17.9%
  • In 7 games: 10.3%
• Tampa Bay has a 6.8% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 6.8%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            63.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           36.3%

These chances were calculated before the final round of the playoffs.

Well, that was a bit of a surprise!  After Colorado trounced Tampa Bay 7-0 in Game 2 of the Stanley Cup Finals, the Lightning came back and did a little thumping of their own, defeating the Avalanche 6-2 to narrow Colorado’s series lead to 2 games to 1.

After falling behind 1-0 in the first period, Tampa Bay came back to score two goals of their own, and the period ended with a 2-1 Lightning lead.  Tampa Bay scored again early in the second period, and after Colorado scored to make it a 3-2 Lightning lead.  And then the fireworks began, with the Lightning scoring three more times in the period to take a 6-2 lead after two frames.  After a scoreless third period, the game ended that way, and Tampa Bay is back in the series!

Colorado still leads the series 2-1, and we’ve calculated that they’ve got a 77.3% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.  Tampa Bay will hope to use home advantage again in Game 4 on Wednesday night, while Colorado would love to go home for Game 5 needing just a single win to take the Cup.  The next game should be quite interesting!

Yesterday’s Game

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Colorado 2 at Tampa Bay 6

• Colorado leads series 2-1
• Colorado now has a 77.3% chance of winning the series, down from 87.8%

Series schedule:

• June 15: Tampa Bay 3 at Colorado 4 (OT)
• June 18: Tampa Bay 0 at Colorado 7
• June 20: Colorado 2 at Tampa Bay 6
• June 22: Colorado at Tampa Bay
• June 24: Tampa Bay at Colorado
• June 26: Colorado at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 28: Tampa Bay at Colorado (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Colorado has a 77.3% chance of winning (▼10.5)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼30.2)
  • In 5 games: 33.8% (▲2.9)
  • In 6 games: 24.2% (▲8.8)
  • In 7 games: 19.2% (▲7.9)
• Tampa Bay has a 22.7% chance of winning (▲10.5)
  • In 7 games: 12.8% (▲5.2)
  • In 6 games: 9.9% (▲5.3)
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Wednesday’s Game

Colorado at Tampa Bay

• Colorado leads series 2-1
• Colorado has a 77.3% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Stanley Cup Finals

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Colorado leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Colorado 77.3%, Tampa Bay 22.7%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1660, 1st overall
• Tampa Bay: 1616, 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (2 games):

• Colorado: 1 regulation win, 1 shootout win
• Tampa Bay: 0 wins

Previous rounds:

• Colorado:
  • defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
  • defeated St. Louis (1595, T-2nd) in 6 games
  • defeated Edmonton (1589, 3rd) in 4 games
• Tampa Bay:
  • defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
  • defeated Florida (1591, 4th) in 4 games
  • defeated NY Rangers (1581, 4th) in 6 games

Series schedule:

• June 15: Tampa Bay 3 at Colorado 4 (OT)
• June 18: Tampa Bay 0 at Colorado 7
• June 20: Colorado 2 at Tampa Bay 6
• June 22: Colorado at Tampa Bay
• June 24: Tampa Bay at Colorado
• June 26: Colorado at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 28: Tampa Bay at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 77.3% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 33.8%
  • In 6 games: 24.2%
  • In 7 games: 19.2%
• Tampa Bay has a 22.7% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 12.8%
  • In 6 games: 9.9%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            63.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           36.3%

These chances were calculated before the final round of the playoffs.

Last night, Colorado showed why they are the top-ranked team in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings, as they handed Tampa Bay a 7-0 drubbing in the second game of the Stanley Cup Finals.  The Avalanche scored early, taking a 1-0 lead only 2:54 into the game, and they kept the pressure on, outshooting the Lightning 15-1 in the first 10 minutes of the game.  They led 3-0 after the first, and scored twice in both the 2nd and 3rd period.  Valeri Nichushkin and Cale Makar both scored twice for Colorado, and Mikko Rantanen had three assists.  Darcy Kuemper only needed to stop 16 shots to get the shutout, as Colorado outshot Tampa Bay 30-16, although I guess both teams got 15 shots in the last 50 minutes of the game!

Colorado now leads the series 2-0.  We’ve calculated that they now have an 87.8% chance of winning the series, including a 30.2% chance of a sweep.  Games 3 and 4 go in Tampa Bay on Monday and Wednesday nights.

Yesterday’s Game

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Tampa Bay 0 at Colorado 7

• Colorado leads series 2-0
• Colorado now has a 87.8% chance of winning the series, up from 76.7%

Series schedule:

• June 15: Tampa Bay 3 at Colorado 4 (OT)
• June 18: Tampa Bay 0 at Colorado 7
• June 20: Colorado at Tampa Bay
• June 22: Colorado at Tampa Bay
• June 24: Tampa Bay at Colorado (if necessary)
• June 26: Colorado at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 28: Tampa Bay at Colorado (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Colorado has a 87.8% chance of winning (▲11.1)
  • In 4 games: 30.2% (▲11.2)
  • In 5 games: 30.9% (▲5.1)
  • In 6 games: 15.4% (▼1.6)
  • In 7 games: 11.3% (▼3.5)
• Tampa Bay has a 12.2% chance of winning (▼11.1)
  • In 7 games: 7.6% (▼2.1)
  • In 6 games: 4.6% (▼4.8)
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼4.1)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Monday’s Games

Colorado at Tampa Bay

• Colorado leads series 2-0
• Colorado has a 87.8% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Stanley Cup Finals

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Colorado leads series 2-0

Chances of winning: Colorado 87.8%, Tampa Bay 12.2%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1660, 1st overall
• Tampa Bay: 1616, 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (2 games):

• Colorado: 1 regulation win, 1 shootout win
• Tampa Bay: 0 wins

Previous rounds:

• Colorado:
  • defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
  • defeated St. Louis (1595, T-2nd) in 6 games
  • defeated Edmonton (1589, 3rd) in 4 games
• Tampa Bay:
  • defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
  • defeated Florida (1591, 4th) in 4 games
  • defeated NY Rangers (1581, 4th) in 6 games

Series schedule:

• June 15: Tampa Bay 3 at Colorado 4 (OT)
• June 18: Tampa Bay 0 at Colorado 7
• June 20: Colorado at Tampa Bay
• June 22: Colorado at Tampa Bay
• June 24: Tampa Bay at Colorado (if necessary)
• June 26: Colorado at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 28: Tampa Bay at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 87.8% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 30.2%
  • In 5 games: 30.9%
  • In 6 games: 15.4%
  • In 7 games: 11.3%
• Tampa Bay has a 12.2% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 7.6%
  • In 6 games: 4.6%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            63.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           36.3%

These chances were calculated before the final round of the playoffs.

After what seems like forever, the Stanley Cup Finals have finally started!  And the first game was worth the wait!!!

Tampa Bay travelled to Colorado to open the series.  Tampa Bay is the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion, while Colorado has been the top-ranked team, and the favourite to win the Stanley Cup, in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings for most of the season.  But, despite being ranked #1 AND playing at home, Colorado was put to the test by the Lightning.  The Avalanche held a 3-1 lead after the first period, and it looked like they might be walking away with the game, but Tampa Bay came back with two goals in the second to tie it up at 3 heading into the third.  After neither team scored in the third period, the game headed to overtime, where Andre Burakovsky scored 1:23 into the extra frame to give the Avalanche the hard-fought 4-3 victory.

With the victory, the McDonald NHL Power Ratings team has now calculated that the Avalanche have a 76.7% chance of winning the Stanley Cup, up from 63.7% before the series started.  Game 2 goes Saturday night in Colorado.

Yesterday’s Game

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Tampa Bay 3 at Colorado 4 (OT)

• Colorado leads series 1-0
• Colorado now has a 76.7% chance of winning the series, up from 63.7%

Series schedule:

• June 15: Tampa Bay 3 at Colorado 4 (OT)
• June 18: Tampa Bay at Colorado
• June 20: Colorado at Tampa Bay
• June 22: Colorado at Tampa Bay
• June 24: Tampa Bay at Colorado (if necessary)
• June 26: Colorado at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 28: Tampa Bay at Colorado (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Colorado has a 76.7% chance of winning (▲13.0)
  • In 4 games: 19.0% (▲7.2)
  • In 5 games: 25.8% (▲6.0)
  • In 6 games: 17.0% (▲1.0)
  • In 7 games: 14.8% (▼1.3)
• Tampa Bay has a 23.3% chance of winning (▼13.0)
  • In 7 games: 9.7% (▼0.9)
  • In 6 games: 9.4% (▼3.3)
  • In 5 games: 4.1% (▼4.1)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼4.9)

Saturday’s Game

Tampa Bay at Colorado

• Colorado leads series 1-0
• Colorado has a 76.7% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Stanley Cup Finals

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Colorado leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Colorado 76.7%, Tampa Bay 23.3%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1660, 1st overall
• Tampa Bay: 1616, 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (2 games):

• Colorado: 1 regulation win, 1 shootout win
• Tampa Bay: 0 wins

Previous rounds:

• Colorado:
  • defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
  • defeated St. Louis (1595, T-2nd) in 6 games
  • defeated Edmonton (1589, 3rd) in 4 games
• Tampa Bay:
  • defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
  • defeated Florida (1591, 4th) in 4 games
  • defeated NY Rangers (1581, 4th) in 6 games

Series schedule:

• June 15: Tampa Bay 3 at Colorado 4 (OT)
• June 18: Tampa Bay at Colorado
• June 20: Colorado at Tampa Bay
• June 22: Colorado at Tampa Bay
• June 24: Tampa Bay at Colorado (if necessary)
• June 26: Colorado at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 28: Tampa Bay at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 76.7% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 19.0%
  • In 5 games: 25.8%
  • In 6 games: 17.0%
  • In 7 games: 14.8%
• Tampa Bay has a 23.3% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 9.7%
  • In 6 games: 9.4%
  • In 5 games: 4.1%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            63.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           36.3%

These chances were calculated before the final round of the playoffs.

And then there were 2.  The Eastern Conference Final of the Stanley Cup playoffs have completed, and we now know who’s playing in the Finals.

Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Final was played last night, with two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay playing at home against the New York Rangers.  Tampa Bay held a 3-2 lead in the series.  In yet another tight game, the Lightning defeated the Rangers 2-1.  Neither team scored in the first period, and it wasn’t until 10:43 of the second that Steven Stamkos scored to give the Lightning a 1-0 lead, and that’s how the second period ended.  The Rangers fought back, though, and finally evened the score at 13:07 of the third period.  But, 21 seconds later, Stamkos scored again to put the Lightning back up 2-1, and that’s the way it ended, giving Tampa Bay the 4-2 series victory and a berth in the Finals.

So, Colorado faces Tampa Bay in the Stanley Cup Finals, with the series starting on Wednesday.  Colorado has been the top-ranked team in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings for most of the season, but Tampa Bay is the two-time defending champion.  In the season series, the two teams only faced each other twice, with Colorado winning both games, although one had to go to a shootout before it was decided.  After looking at the performances of the two teams in the Conference Finals, our team of hockey experts and mathematical wizards have crunched the numbers, and are predicting a Colorado victory, giving them a 63.7% / 36.3% edge over Tampa Bay.

No games until Wednesday!  What’s the CBC going to do to fill their schedule?  We’re hoping that they have a Beachcombers marathon each night that hockey isn’t on.

Yesterday’s Game

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

NY Rangers 1 at Tampa Bay 2

• Tampa Bay wins series 4-2

Series schedule:

• June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 6
• June 3: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 3
• June 5: NY Rangers 2 at Tampa Bay 3
• June 7: NY Rangers 1 at Tampa Bay 4
• June 9: Tampa Bay 3 at NY Rangers 1
• June 11: NY Rangers 1 at Tampa Bay 2

Wednesday’s Game

Tampa Bay at Colorado

• Series tied 0-0
• Colorado has a 63.7% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference Finals

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Tampa Bay wins series 4-2

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• NY Rangers: 1581, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1603, 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• NY Rangers: 2 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
• Tampa Bay: 0 wins

Previous rounds:

• NY Rangers:
  • defeated Pittsburgh (1540, 12th) in 7 games
  • defeated Carolina (1595, T-2nd) in 7 games
• Tampa Bay:
  • defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
  • defeated Florida (1591, 4th) in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 6
• June 3: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 3
• June 5: NY Rangers 2 at Tampa Bay 3
• June 7: NY Rangers 1 at Tampa Bay 4
• June 9: Tampa Bay 3 at NY Rangers 1
• June 11: NY Rangers 1 at Tampa Bay 2

Western Conference Finals

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Colorado wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1635, 1st overall
• Edmonton: 1589, 3rd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Colorado: 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• Edmonton: 1 regulation win

Previous rounds:

• Colorado:
  • defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
  • defeated St. Louis (1595, T-2nd) in 6 games
• Edmonton:
  • defeated Los Angeles (1534, 13th) in 7 games
  • defeated Calgary (1582, 6th) in 5 games

Series schedule:

• May 31: Edmonton 6 at Colorado 8
• June 2: Edmonton 0 at Colorado 4
• June 4: Colorado 4 at Edmonton 2
• June 6: Colorado 6 at Edmonton 5 (OT)

Stanley Cup Finals

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Series tied 0-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1660, 1st overall
• Tampa Bay: 1616, 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (2 games):

• Colorado: 1 regulation win, 1 shootout win
• Tampa Bay: 0 wins

Previous rounds:

• Colorado:
  • defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
  • defeated St. Louis (1595, T-2nd) in 6 games
  • defeated Edmonton (1589, 3rd) in 4 games
• Tampa Bay:
  • defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
  • defeated Florida (1591, 4th) in 4 games
  • defeated NY Rangers (1581, 4th) in 6 games

Series schedule:

• June 15: Tampa Bay at Colorado
• June 18: Tampa Bay at Colorado
• June 20: Colorado at Tampa Bay
• June 22: Colorado at Tampa Bay
• June 24: Tampa Bay at Colorado (if necessary)
• June 26: Colorado at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 28: Tampa Bay at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 63.7% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 11.8%
  • In 5 games: 19.8%
  • In 6 games: 16.0%
  • In 7 games: 16.1%
• Tampa Bay has a 36.3% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 10.6%
  • In 6 games: 12.7%
  • In 5 games: 8.2%
  • In 4 games: 4.9%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            63.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           36.3%

These chances were calculated before the Stanley Cup Finals started.

Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Final went last night, with the New York Rangers and Tampa Bay Lightning tied at 2 games apiece.  The first four games were all won by the home team, and as the game was played in New York, the Rangers hoped that that trend would continue.  But, alas, it was not to be, as the Lightning won the game 3-1.  In a tight, low-scoring affair, the teams were knotted at 0-0 halfway through the second period.  The Rangers scored first, when Ryan Lindgren scored at 10:29 of the second frame, but Mikhail Sergachev tied it up 7 minutes later.  That’s the way the score remained until 1:50 left in the game, when Sergachev flipped a wrister from the blue line that bounced off of Ondrej Palat’s knee and snuck behind a screened Igor Shesterkin.  The Lightning finished off the scoring with an empty-netter in the final minute to take the game 3-1.

With the victory, the Lightning grab a 3-2 lead in the series, and the teams head south for Game 6 in Tampa Bay.  We’ve calculated that Tampa Bay now has a 79.4% chance of winning the series, an increase of 28% from before Game 5.  Colorado continues to wait for the victor of this series to face in the Stanley Cup Finals.

Yesterday’s Game

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Tampa Bay 3 at NY Rangers 1

• Tampa Bay leads series 3-2
• Tampa Bay now has a 79.4% chance of winning the series, up from 51.4%

Series schedule:

• June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 6
• June 3: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 3
• June 5: NY Rangers 2 at Tampa Bay 3
• June 7: NY Rangers 1 at Tampa Bay 4
• June 9: Tampa Bay 3 at NY Rangers 1
• June 11: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
• June 14: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• NY Rangers has a 20.6% chance of winning (▼28.0)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0% (▼22.9)
  • In 7 games: 20.6% (▼5.1)
• Tampa Bay has a 79.4% chance of winning (▲28.0)
  • In 7 games: 18.3% (▼4.5)
  • In 6 games: 61.1% (▲32.4)
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Saturday’s Game

NY Rangers at Tampa Bay

• Tampa Bay leads series 3-2
• Tampa Bay has a 79.4% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference Finals

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Tampa Bay leads series 3-2

Chances of winning: NY Rangers 20.6%, Tampa Bay 79.4%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• NY Rangers: 1581, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1603, 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• NY Rangers: 2 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
• Tampa Bay: 0 wins

Previous rounds:

• NY Rangers:
  • defeated Pittsburgh (1540, 12th) in 7 games
  • defeated Carolina (1595, T-2nd) in 7 games
• Tampa Bay:
  • defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
  • defeated Florida (1591, 4th) in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 6
• June 3: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 3
• June 5: NY Rangers 2 at Tampa Bay 3
• June 7: NY Rangers 1 at Tampa Bay 4
• June 9: Tampa Bay 3 at NY Rangers 1
• June 11: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
• June 14: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• NY Rangers has a 20.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 7 games: 20.6%
• Tampa Bay has a 79.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 18.3%
  • In 6 games: 61.1%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Western Conference Finals

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Colorado wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1635, 1st overall
• Edmonton: 1589, 3rd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Colorado: 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• Edmonton: 1 regulation win

Previous rounds:

• Colorado:
  • defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
  • defeated St. Louis (1595, T-2nd) in 6 games
• Edmonton:
  • defeated Los Angeles (1534, 13th) in 7 games
  • defeated Calgary (1582, 6th) in 5 games

Series schedule:

• May 31: Edmonton 6 at Colorado 8
• June 2: Edmonton 0 at Colorado 4
• June 4: Colorado 4 at Edmonton 2
• June 6: Colorado 6 at Edmonton 5 (OT)

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            39.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           24.7%
 3       New York Rangers              18.2%
 4       Edmonton Oilers               17.4%

These chances were calculated at the end of the second round of the playoffs.

Last night, it was Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Final, with the New York Rangers playing the Lightning in Tampa Bay.  New York had a 2-1 lead, and with Game 5 heading back to New York, two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay needed a win.  And they came through!  Tampa Bay scored early, going up 1-0 2:38 into the game, and held that lead through the 1st period.  In the second period, Tampa Bay scored the only goal, and went into the 3rd period leading 2-0.  They scored again 5 minutes into the 3rd to take a 3-0 lead, but the Rangers managed to score a powerplay goal with 3 and a half minutes left, but that was all they could manage.  The Lightning scored an empty netter with 9 seconds left to take the game 4-1.

With the Tampa Bay win, the series is now tied 2 games apiece.  The McDonald NHL Power Ratings team is now giving the Lightning a slight edge to win the series, with a 51.4% chance, despite 2 of the next 3 games being held in New York, and all games so far in the series have been won by the home team.

There is no game tonight, as Colorado won the Western Conference Final in 4 games.  The next game goes tomorrow night, with Tampa Bay playing in New York.

Yesterday’s Game

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

NY Rangers 1 at Tampa Bay 4

• Series tied 2-2
• Tampa Bay now has a 51.4% chance of winning the series, up from 34.3%

Series schedule:

• June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 6
• June 3: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 3
• June 5: NY Rangers 2 at Tampa Bay 3
• June 7: NY Rangers 1 at Tampa Bay 4
• June 9: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers
• June 11: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
• June 14: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• NY Rangers has a 48.6% chance of winning (▼17.1)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼24.4)
  • In 6 games: 22.9% (▲1.9)
  • In 7 games: 25.7% (▲5.4)
• Tampa Bay has a 51.4% chance of winning (▲17.1)
  • In 7 games: 22.8% (▲4.9)
  • In 6 games: 28.7% (▲12.3)
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Thursday’s Game

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Tampa Bay at NY Rangers

• Series tied 2-2
• Tampa Bay has a 51.4% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference Finals

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: NY Rangers 48.6%, Tampa Bay 51.4%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• NY Rangers: 1581, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1603, 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• NY Rangers: 2 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
• Tampa Bay: 0 wins

Previous rounds:

• NY Rangers:
  • defeated Pittsburgh (1540, 12th) in 7 games
  • defeated Carolina (1595, T-2nd) in 7 games
• Tampa Bay:
  • defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
  • defeated Florida (1591, 4th) in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 6
• June 3: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 3
• June 5: NY Rangers 2 at Tampa Bay 3
• June 7: NY Rangers 1 at Tampa Bay 4
• June 9: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers
• June 11: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
• June 14: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• NY Rangers has a 48.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 22.9%
  • In 7 games: 25.7%
• Tampa Bay has a 51.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 22.8%
  • In 6 games: 28.7%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Western Conference Finals

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Colorado wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1635, 1st overall
• Edmonton: 1589, 3rd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Colorado: 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• Edmonton: 1 regulation win

Previous rounds:

• Colorado:
  • defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
  • defeated St. Louis (1595, T-2nd) in 6 games
• Edmonton:
  • defeated Los Angeles (1534, 13th) in 7 games
  • defeated Calgary (1582, 6th) in 5 games

Series schedule:

• May 31: Edmonton 6 at Colorado 8
• June 2: Edmonton 0 at Colorado 4
• June 4: Colorado 4 at Edmonton 2
• June 6: Colorado 6 at Edmonton 5 (OT)

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            39.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           24.7%
 3       New York Rangers              18.2%
 4       Edmonton Oilers               17.4%

These chances were calculated at the end of the second round of the playoffs.

What a game!  Game 4 of the Western Conference Final went last night, with Colorado playing in Edmonton.  Colorado led the series 3-0, but both teams were playing like they were on the edge of elimination!  Colorado led 1-0 after the first period, but Edmonton tied it up early in the second period, and it stayed tied at 1 until there were 3 minutes left in the second period, and then things exploded!  Edmonton scored twice at the tail end of the period and led 3-1 going into the final frame.  The fireworks continued as Colorado scored 31 seconds into the 3rd period to narrow the lead to 3-2, but then Edmonton scored again to move up 4-2 after 4 minutes.  Then, Colorado exploded for 3 more goals to take a 5-4 lead with 5 minutes left, but Edmonton came storming back and tied it back up with three and a half minutes left.  That’s the way regulation time ended, 5-5, after 6 goals were scored in the 3rd period, and 8 goals in the last 23 minutes!  Overtime didn’t last long, as Artturi Lehkonen scored 1:19 in to win the game, and the series, for Colorado.

Cale Makar led the Avalanche, scoring once and assisting on four other Colorado goals!  Not to be outdone (not by much, anyways), Leon Draisaitl had four assists for Edmonton.  Backup goalie Pavel Francouz got the start, and the win, for Colorado.  With the sweep, Colorado now moves on to the final, awaiting the winner of the Eastern Conference Final, which will go at least 5 games.  Unfortunately, there is now no chance that a Canadian team will win the Stanley Cup again this year.  Thanks, Toronto!

And tonight’s game is Game 4 of that Eastern Conference Final.  The New York Rangers play in Tampa Bay, with a 2-1 series lead.  We have calculated that New York now has a 65.7% chance of winning that series.

Yesterday’s Game

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Colorado 6 at Edmonton 5 (OT)

• Colorado wins series 4-0

Series schedule:

• May 31: Edmonton 6 at Colorado 8
• June 2: Edmonton 0 at Colorado 4
• June 4: Colorado 4 at Edmonton 2
• June 6: Colorado 6 at Edmonton 5 (OT)

Today’s Game

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

NY Rangers at Tampa Bay

• NY Rangers leads series 2-1
• NY Rangers has a 65.7% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference Finals

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

NY Rangers leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: NY Rangers 65.7%, Tampa Bay 34.3%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• NY Rangers: 1581, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1603, 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• NY Rangers: 2 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
• Tampa Bay: 0 wins

Previous rounds:

• NY Rangers:
  • defeated Pittsburgh (1540, 12th) in 7 games
  • defeated Carolina (1595, T-2nd) in 7 games
• Tampa Bay:
  • defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
  • defeated Florida (1591, 4th) in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 6
• June 3: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 3
• June 5: NY Rangers 2 at Tampa Bay 3
• June 7: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
• June 9: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers
• June 11: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 14: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• NY Rangers has a 65.7% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 24.4%
  • In 6 games: 21.0%
  • In 7 games: 20.3%
• Tampa Bay has a 34.3% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 17.9%
  • In 6 games: 16.4%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Western Conference Finals

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Colorado wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1635, 1st overall
• Edmonton: 1589, 3rd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Colorado: 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• Edmonton: 1 regulation win

Previous rounds:

• Colorado:
  • defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
  • defeated St. Louis (1595, T-2nd) in 6 games
• Edmonton:
  • defeated Los Angeles (1534, 13th) in 7 games
  • defeated Calgary (1582, 6th) in 5 games

Series schedule:

• May 31: Edmonton 6 at Colorado 8
• June 2: Edmonton 0 at Colorado 4
• June 4: Colorado 4 at Edmonton 2
• June 6: Colorado 6 at Edmonton 5 (OT)

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            39.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           24.7%
 3       New York Rangers              18.2%
 4       Edmonton Oilers               17.4%

These chances were calculated at the end of the second round of the playoffs.