Tag: NHL

2024/25 NHL schedule and results in Excel .xlsx and csv formats

Hockey playerNote: Schedule last updated December 21, 2024.

Here’s a copy of the 2024/25 NHL schedule and the results of each of the games played so far in Excel .xlsx format, and here’s another copy in CSV format.  Of course, the season hasn’t started yet, so the results are empty right now, but I’ll try to update them each morning through the regular season.

The Excel file consists of 2 worksheets: one contains the original NHL schedule as described in this post; the other, named As-Played Schedule, contains the same contents, with the addition of the scores for each team and whether the game hasn’t been played yet, was won in regulation time, overtime, or in a shootout.  Here’s a quick summary of the columns:

  • Date: the date of the game
  • Start Time (Sask): the game’s start time in Saskatchewan (where I live!)
  • Start Time (ET): the game’s start time in Eastern time (which is the time the NHL website shows)
  • Visitor: the name of the visiting team
  • Score: the visiting team’s score if the game has been played, otherwise blank
  • Home: the name of the home team
  • Score: the home team’s score if the game has been played, otherwise blank
  • Status: one of the following:
    • Scheduled: if the game hasn’t been played yet
    • Postponed: if the game has been postponed, but not yet rescheduled
    • Regulation: if the game ended in regulation time
    • OT: if the game ended in overtime
    • SO: if the game ended in a shootout

For example, here’s the first couple lines of the worksheet from a previous year’s file:

In this example, the game was played on January 13, 2021 at 4:30 PM in Saskatchewan and 5:30 PM Eastern time, the home team Philadelphia beat the visiting team Pittsburgh 6-3 in regulation time

Just a brief explanation why I’ve got two time fields in here.  Saskatchewan doesn’t observe Daylight Savings time, so for part of the schedule, we have a one-hour time difference from Eastern time, and for the rest of the schedule, we have a two-hour time difference.  Of course, I’m more interested in the time in Saskatchewan, but to make it easier for other people to use, I’ve also included Eastern time.

The CSV file contains only the As-Played worksheet.  It has the same fields as described for the Excel file.  You can easily import this file into Excel or whatever spreadsheet of your choice!

NHL 2022-23 Playoff Schedule and Results spreadsheet in Excel and CSV formats

Hockey playerNote: Last updated August 23, 2023 —  contains complete playoff results.

I have updated my NHL schedule spreadsheet to include the playoff schedule. I’ve made it available in both Excel and CSV formats. It’s the same as the NHL schedule spreadsheet described in this post, with the addition of an additional worksheet containing the playoff schedule. Due to limitations of the CSV format, the CSV file only contains the playoff worksheet.

You can find the Excel spreadsheet here, and the CSV file here.

The new worksheet is called “Playoff Schedule”, and it looks like this:

Screenshot of Playoff Schedule worksheet

Most of the columns in the worksheet are the same as in the original worksheet, with two new ones. The Series column gives the name of the series, such as “East: A1 / WC2” for the series in the Eastern Conference between the top-seed in the Atlantic Division and the 2nd Eastern Conference Wildcard team. The Game # column lists which game in the series (1st game, 2nd game, etc.) this game is. There are a couple of other changes.  In the time columns, if the game time hasn’t been determined yet, it’s listed as TBD.  And, in the Status column, games in the playoffs can’t end in a shootout, so there’s no chance of an SO showing up in that column, and if a game ends in the first overtime period, it’s indicated as OT, if it’s in the second overtime period, 2OT, third is 3OT, etc. As with my regular season spreadsheet, I’ll try to keep this up-to-date every day.

2023/24 NHL schedule and results in Excel .xlsx and csv formats

Hockey player

If you’re looking for the 2024/25 schedule, you can find it here!

Note: Schedule last updated April 19, 2024 (end of regular season).

Here’s a copy of the 2023/24 NHL schedule and the results of each of the games played so far in Excel .xlsx format, and here’s another copy in CSV format.  Of course, the season hasn’t started yet, so the results are empty right now, but I’ll try to update them each morning through the regular season.

The Excel file consists of 2 worksheets: one contains the original NHL schedule as described in this post; the other, named As-Played Schedule, contains the same contents, with the addition of the scores for each team and whether the game hasn’t been played yet, was won in regulation time, overtime, or in a shootout.  Here’s a quick summary of the columns:

  • Date: the date of the game
  • Start Time (Sask): the game’s start time in Saskatchewan (where I live!)
  • Start Time (ET): the game’s start time in Eastern time (which is the time the NHL website shows)
  • Visitor: the name of the visiting team
  • Score: the visiting team’s score if the game has been played, otherwise blank
  • Home: the name of the home team
  • Score: the home team’s score if the game has been played, otherwise blank
  • Status: one of the following:
    • Scheduled: if the game hasn’t been played yet
    • Postponed: if the game has been postponed, but not yet rescheduled
    • Regulation: if the game ended in regulation time
    • OT: if the game ended in overtime
    • SO: if the game ended in a shootout

For example, here’s the first couple lines of the worksheet from a previous year’s file:

In this example, the game was played on January 13, 2021 at 4:30 PM in Saskatchewan and 5:30 PM Eastern time, the home team Philadelphia beat the visiting team Pittsburgh 6-3 in regulation time

Just a brief explanation why I’ve got two time fields in here.  Saskatchewan doesn’t observe Daylight Savings time, so for part of the schedule, we have a one-hour time difference from Eastern time, and for the rest of the schedule, we have a two-hour time difference.  Of course, I’m more interested in the time in Saskatchewan, but to make it easier for other people to use, I’ve also included Eastern time.

The CSV file contains only the As-Played worksheet.  It has the same fields as described for the Excel file.  You can easily import this file into Excel or whatever spreadsheet of your choice!

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – March 12, 2023

Hockey playerThe NHL regular season ends on April 14th, so there’s just over a month to go.  No teams have been eliminated from the playoffs yet, and Boston is the first team to clinch a playoff spot.  But before we look at the playoff picture, let’s take a look at this week’s top 5.

Boston remains our top ranked team, despite what may be their worst week of the season, going 1-2-0.  They started off the week with a home loss to 4th-ranked Edmonton, but turned that around with a home win over 23rd-ranked Detroit.  But, in the second game in their home-and-home series with Detroit, they lost on the road.  Despite this performance, they still have a league-leading 1646 rating points, a drop of 17 from last week, but still well above the 1600-point “great team” line.  Plus, they’ve now clinched a playoff spot, with still just over a month to go.

Carolina remains at number 2 in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings, although they have now dropped back below that magical 1600-point threshold.  They didn’t have the greatest week, winning their first game in a shootout over 29th-ranked Montreal, and followed it with a close win over 26th-ranked Philadelphia.  But, they finished the week with two shutout losses, first to 9th-ranked Vegas, then to 6th-ranked New Jersey.  With their 2-2-0 showing this week, they dropped 17 rating points to finish the week with 1585.

Toronto retains third spot in the rankings.  They had a bit of a quieter week, playing only two games, but both of those games were against strong teams, and the Leafs came out ahead in both.  They defeated 6th-ranked New Jersey and 4th-ranked Edmonton, allowing them to pick up 15 rating points according to our crack team of statisticians, mathematicians, and hair stylists.  They’re now sitting at 1579 rating points, just 6 behind 2nd-ranked Carolina.

Again this week, Edmonton sits 4th in our rankings, despite being 4th in the Pacific Division!  They had three road games, beating 21st-ranked Buffalo and top-ranked Boston, but losing to 3rd-ranked Toronto.  They picked up 10 rating points to keep their 4th position from last week.

Rounding out the top 5 is a new entrant, as Los Angeles bumps out last week’s #5 Dallas.  LA went 2-0-1 last week, beating 22nd-ranked Washington and 12th-ranked Colorado, then losing in a shootout to 18th-ranked Nashville.  They picked up 11 rating points on the week, and currently sit 2nd in the Pacific Division.

Now, let’s take a look at the playoff picture.  In the Eastern Conference, we’ve got six teams who we are giving a 99% chance of making the playoffs or better:

  Boston Bruins                 100%
  Carolina Hurricanes           >99%
  New Jersey Devils             >99%
  Toronto Maple Leafs           >99%
  New York Rangers              99%
  Tampa Bay Lightning           99%

There are two playoff spots left in the East, with us giving the following teams a chance of grabbing one of them:

  Pittsburgh Penguins           83%
  New York Islanders            53%
  Florida Panthers              30%
  Buffalo Sabres                11%
  Washington Capitals           11%

In the Western Conference, there’s seven teams that we’re pretty confident of making the playoffs, with us having calculated that they all have at least a 90% chance:

  Vegas Golden Knights          >99%
  Dallas Stars                  99%
  Los Angeles Kings             99%
  Minnesota Wild                97%
  Edmonton Oilers               94%
  Seattle Kraken                94%
  Colorado Avalanche            91%

The way we see it, there’s only three teams with a chance of grabbing that last spot:

  Winnipeg Jets                 72%
  Nashville Predators           37%
  Calgary Flames                17%

Yeah, we know that doesn’t add up to 100%, but that’s because there’s still a chance that one or more of those other teams actually won’t make the playoffs.

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

The top 5

1. Boston Bruins (1646, ▼17)

Record: 50-10-5, 1st in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 100% (▲1)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 99%
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 26% (▼4)

Last week: 1-2-0

  • March 9: Lost 3-2 vs. Edmonton Oilers (4th, 1566)
  • March 11: Won 3-2 vs. Detroit Red Wings (23rd, 1476)
  • March 12: Lost 5-3 @ Detroit Red Wings (23rd, 1476)

Next week:

  • March 14: @ Chicago Blackhawks (32nd, 1389)
  • March 16: @ Winnipeg Jets (19th, 1504)
  • March 18: @ Minnesota Wild (7th, 1548)
  • March 19: @ Buffalo Sabres (21st, 1483)

2. Carolina Hurricanes (1585, ▼17)

Record: 43-14-8, 1st in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: >99%
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 1%
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▼2)

Last week: 2-2-0

  • March 7: Won in SO 4-3 @ Montreal Canadiens (29th, 1418)
  • March 9: Won 1-0 vs. Philadelphia Flyers (26th, 1443)
  • March 11: Lost 4-0 vs. Vegas Golden Knights (9th, 1543)
  • March 12: Lost 3-0 @ New Jersey Devils (6th, 1549)

Next week:

  • March 14: vs. Winnipeg Jets (19th, 1504)
  • March 17: @ Toronto Maple Leafs (3rd, 1579)
  • March 18: @ Philadelphia Flyers (26th, 1443)

3. Toronto Maple Leafs (1579, ▲15)

Record: 40-17-8, 2nd in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: >99%
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲2)

Last week: 2-0-0

  • March 7: Won 4-3 @ New Jersey Devils (6th, 1549)
  • March 11: Won 7-4 vs. Edmonton Oilers (4th, 1566)

Next week:

  • March 13: vs. Buffalo Sabres (21st, 1483)
  • March 15: vs. Colorado Avalanche (12th, 1527)
  • March 17: vs. Carolina Hurricanes (2nd, 1585)
  • March 18: @ Ottawa Senators (20th, 1492)

4. Edmonton Oilers (1566, ▲10)

Record: 36-23-8, 4th in Pacific Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 94% (▲4)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲1)

Last week: 2-1-0

  • March 6: Won 3-2 @ Buffalo Sabres (21st, 1483)
  • March 9: Won 3-2 @ Boston Bruins (1st, 1646)
  • March 11: Lost 7-4 @ Toronto Maple Leafs (3rd, 1579)

Next week:

  • March 14: vs. Ottawa Senators (20th, 1492)
  • March 16: vs. Dallas Stars (8th, 1545)
  • March 18: @ Seattle Kraken (13th, 1521)

5. Los Angeles Kings ▲1 (1555, ▲11)

Record: 38-20-9, 2nd in Pacific Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 99% (▲2)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▲1)

Last week: 2-0-1

  • March 6: Won 4-2 vs. Washington Capitals (22nd, 1481)
  • March 9: Won 5-2 @ Colorado Avalanche (12th, 1527)
  • March 11: Lost in SO 2-1 vs. Nashville Predators (18th, 1505)

Next week:

  • March 14: vs. New York Islanders (15th, 1516)
  • March 16: vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (30th, 1412)
  • March 18: vs. Vancouver Canucks (25th, 1450)

Overall Ratings

 1       Boston Bruins                 1646 (▼17)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           1585 (▼17)
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           1579 (▲15)
 4       Edmonton Oilers               1566 (▲10)
 5       Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        1555 (▲11)
 6       New Jersey Devils (▲1)        1549 (▲6)
 7       Minnesota Wild (▲3)           1548 (▲11)
 8       Dallas Stars (▼3)             1545 (▼2)
 9       Vegas Golden Knights (▲3)     1543 (▲11)
10       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼2)      1541 (▼1)
11       New York Rangers (▼3)         1540 (▼2)
12       Colorado Avalanche (▼1)       1527 (▼7)
13       Seattle Kraken                1521 (▼4)
14       Florida Panthers (▲1)         1518 (▲3)
15       New York Islanders (▼1)       1516 (▼3)
16 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲5)           1508 (▲7)
16 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2)      1508 (▲3)
18       Nashville Predators (▼2)      1505 (▼9)
19       Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            1504 (▼1)
20       Ottawa Senators (▼3)          1492 (▼15)
21       Buffalo Sabres (▼1)           1483 (▼20)
22       Washington Capitals           1481 (▲4)
23       Detroit Red Wings             1476 (▲13)
24       St. Louis Blues (▲1)          1457
25       Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        1450 (▲8)
26       Philadelphia Flyers (▼2)      1443 (▼15)
27       Arizona Coyotes (▲2)          1437 (▲21)
28       Anaheim Ducks (▲2)            1422 (▲7)
29       Montreal Canadiens (▼2)       1418 (▼1)
30       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼2)    1412 (▼5)
31       San Jose Sharks               1393 (▼12)
32       Chicago Blackhawks            1389 (▲3)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           61% (▼17)
 2       New Jersey Devils             38% (▲16)
 3       New York Rangers              1% (▲1)
 4 (tie) New York Islanders (▼1)       <1%
 4 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1)      <1%
 4 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼1)      <1%
 7 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    —
 7 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼4)      — (▼1)

Atlantic Division

 1       Boston Bruins                 >99%
 2 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           <1%
 2 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           <1%
 4 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▼2)           — (▼1)
 4 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲3)        —
 4 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼2)         — (▼1)
 4 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲3)       —
 4 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▼2)          — (▼1)

Central Division

 1       Dallas Stars                  59% (▲3)
 2       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           24% (▲5)
 3       Colorado Avalanche (▼1)       15% (▼5)
 4       Winnipeg Jets                 2% (▼1)
 5       Nashville Predators           1%
 6 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1%
 6 (tie) St. Louis Blues               <1%
 8       Chicago Blackhawks (▼2)       — (▼1)

Pacific Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          55% (▲13)
 2       Los Angeles Kings             28% (▲2)
 3       Seattle Kraken                9% (▼14)
 4       Edmonton Oilers               7% (▼2)
 5 (tie) Calgary Flames                <1%
 5 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             <1%
 7 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼2)            — (▼1)
 7 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼2)          — (▼1)

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           >99%
 1 (tie) New Jersey Devils             >99%
 3       New York Rangers              99% (▲3)
 4       Pittsburgh Penguins           83% (▲21)
 5       New York Islanders            53% (▲7)
 6       Washington Capitals           11% (▼1)
 7 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         <1%
 7 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1%

Atlantic Division

 1       Boston Bruins                 100% (▲1)
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      >99%
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning           99% (▲2)
 4       Florida Panthers (▲2)         30% (▲9)
 5       Buffalo Sabres (▼1)           11% (▼26)
 6       Ottawa Senators (▼1)          9% (▼17)
 7       Detroit Red Wings             5% (▲2)
 8       Montreal Canadiens            <1%

Central Division

 1       Dallas Stars                  99%
 2       Minnesota Wild                97% (▲3)
 3       Colorado Avalanche            91% (▼1)
 4       Winnipeg Jets                 72%
 5       Nashville Predators           37% (▼8)
 6 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1%
 6 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%
 6 (tie) St. Louis Blues               <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          >99% (▲2)
 2       Los Angeles Kings             99% (▲2)
 3 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          94% (▲4)
 3 (tie) Seattle Kraken                94% (▼2)
 5       Calgary Flames                17% (▲1)
 6 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 <1%
 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks               <1%
 6 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             <1%

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Boston Bruins                 99%
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           1%

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Boston Bruins                 26% (▼4)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           10% (▼2)
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           8% (▲2)
 4       Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          7% (▲1)
 5 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             6% (▲1)
 5 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲2)           6% (▲2)
 7 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼2)             5%
 7 (tie) New Jersey Devils             5% (▲1)
 7 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          5% (▲1)
10       New York Rangers (▼3)         4%
11 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼4)       3% (▼1)
11 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲1)           3%
11 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      3%
14 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2)      2% (▲1)
14 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 2%
16 (tie) Calgary Flames                1%
16 (tie) Florida Panthers              1%
16 (tie) New York Islanders            1%
16 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼2)      1% (▼1)
20 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲2)            <1%
20 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲2)          <1%
20 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▼4)           <1% (▼1)
20 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲2)       <1%
20 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2)    <1%
20 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲2)        <1%
20 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲2)       <1%
20 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▼4)          <1% (▼1)
20 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲2)      <1%
20 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲2)          <1%
20 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲2)          <1%
20 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲2)        <1%
20 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲2)      <1%

 

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – March 5, 2023

Hockey playerThere’s a little over five weeks left in the NHL regular season, and things are starting to get sorted out.  Although no teams have clinched spots, there are some teams that have been eliminated from the possibility of winning their divisions.  Columbus in the Metropolitan Division and Detroit and Montreal in the Atlantic Division have that privilege, although all three teams still have shots at making the playoffs.

As always seems to be the case, four of last week’s top 5 teams remain in this week’s top 5, and there’s one new addition, although there has been a bit of shuffling in placings.  Boston continues to be the top-ranked team, with an amazing 1663 rating points, up 12 from last week after going 4-0-0.  They beat 4th-ranked Edmonton, 20th-ranked Buffalo, and 8th-ranked New York Rangers in regulation time, but needed overtime to beat 21st-ranked Calgary.  We’ve bumped up their chances of winning the Stanley Cup to 30%, up 5% from last week, and of winning the President’s Trophy to 99%, up 3%.

Carolina is this week’s 2nd-ranked team, the same as last week, although they did edge over that 1600-rating point great team mark.  They went 2-1-0, and gained 3 rating points to finish the week at 1602.  They lost to 12th-ranked Las Vegas, but defeated 29th-ranked Arizona and 8th-ranked Tampa Bay.  They are the only other team with at least a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy, with a 1% chance!  We’re giving them a 12% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.

Toronto remains in 3rd place in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings, despite going 1-2-0 and losing 10 rating points, finishing the week at 1564.  They had a Western road trip, losing to 4th-ranked Edmonton and 26th-ranked Vancouver, but defeated 21st-ranked Calgary.

Edmonton moved up one spot in our rankings to 4th, despite going 2-2-0 this week and dropping 2 rating points to 1556.  They lost to top-ranked Boston, beat 3rd-ranked Toronto and 18th-ranked Winnipeg, but then lost their final game of the week to Winnipeg.  Although they are ranked 4th in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings, they are currently in 4th place in the Pacific Division with 76 points in 64 games, behind 12th-ranked Vegas (82 points after 63 games), 6th-ranked Los Angeles (80 points after 64 games), and 13th-ranked Seattle (78 points after 63 games).

The new entry in the top 5 this week is Dallas, who jumped 5 spots and 14 points in our rankings, finishing the week with 1547 rating points.  They are currently in 1st place in the Central Division.  Dallas went 3-0-1 this week, starting the week with a loss in overtime to 26th-ranked Vancouver, but then had three straight regulation wins over 29th-ranked Arizona, 32nd-ranked Chicago, and 11th-ranked Colorado.

The biggest upward mover this week was Ottawa.  They gained 29 rating points and 5 positions in the rankings, finishing the week with 1507 points to rank 17th.  They went 4-0-0, defeating 23rd-ranked Detroit twice, 8th-ranked New York Rangers, and 28th-ranked Columbus.  We’re now giving them a 26% chance of making the playoffs, up 18% from last week!

Four teams had big downward moves: Detroit dropped 27 rating points and 2 rating positions to 23rd after going 0-4-1, Tampa Bay dropped 26 rating points and 4 rating positions to 8th after going 0-3-1, Chicago dropped 24 rating points and 1 rating position to 32nd after going 0-4-0, and San Jose dropped 23 rating points and 4 rating positions to 31st after going 0-3-0.

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

The top 5

1. Boston Bruins (1663, ▲12)

Record: 49-8-5, 1st in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: >99%
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 99% (▲3)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 30% (▲5)

Last week: 4-0-0

  • February 27: Won 3-2 @ Edmonton Oilers (4th, 1556)
  • February 28: Won in OT 4-3 @ Calgary Flames (21st, 1501)
  • March 2: Won 7-1 vs. Buffalo Sabres (20th, 1503)
  • March 4: Won 4-2 vs. New York Rangers (8th, 1542)

Next week:

  • March 9: vs. Edmonton Oilers (4th, 1556)
  • March 11: vs. Detroit Red Wings (23rd, 1463)
  • March 12: @ Detroit Red Wings (23rd, 1463)

2. Carolina Hurricanes (1602, ▲3)

Record: 41-12-8, 1st in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: >99%
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 1% (▼3)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 12%

Last week: 2-1-0

  • March 1: Lost 3-2 @ Vegas Golden Knights (12th, 1532)
  • March 3: Won 6-1 @ Arizona Coyotes (29th, 1416)
  • March 5: Won 6-0 vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (8th, 1542)

Next week:

  • March 7: @ Montreal Canadiens (27th, 1419)
  • March 9: vs. Philadelphia Flyers (24th, 1458)
  • March 11: vs. Vegas Golden Knights (12th, 1532)
  • March 12: @ New Jersey Devils (7th, 1543)

3. Toronto Maple Leafs (1564, ▼10)

Record: 38-17-8, 2nd in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: >99%
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▼1)

Last week: 1-2-0

  • March 1: Lost 5-2 @ Edmonton Oilers (4th, 1556)
  • March 2: Won 2-1 @ Calgary Flames (21st, 1501)
  • March 4: Lost 4-1 @ Vancouver Canucks (26th, 1442)

Next week:

  • March 7: @ New Jersey Devils (7th, 1543)
  • March 11: vs. Edmonton Oilers (4th, 1556)

4. Edmonton Oilers ▲1 (1556, ▼2)

Record: 34-22-8, 4th in Pacific Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 90% (▼1)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▼1)

Last week: 2-2-0

  • February 27: Lost 3-2 vs. Boston Bruins (1st, 1663)
  • March 1: Won 5-2 vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (3rd, 1564)
  • March 3: Won 6-3 vs. Winnipeg Jets (18th, 1505)
  • March 4: Lost 7-5 @ Winnipeg Jets (18th, 1505)

Next week:

  • March 6: @ Buffalo Sabres (20th, 1503)
  • March 9: @ Boston Bruins (1st, 1663)
  • March 11: @ Toronto Maple Leafs (3rd, 1564)

5. Dallas Stars ▲5 (1547, ▲14)

Record: 34-16-13, 1st in Central Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 99% (▲3)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 5% (▲1)

Last week: 3-0-1

  • February 27: Lost in OT 5-4 vs. Vancouver Canucks (26th, 1442)
  • March 1: Won 4-2 vs. Arizona Coyotes (29th, 1416)
  • March 2: Won 5-2 @ Chicago Blackhawks (32nd, 1386)
  • March 4: Won 7-3 vs. Colorado Avalanche (11th, 1534)

Next week:

  • March 6: vs. Calgary Flames (21st, 1501)
  • March 9: @ Buffalo Sabres (20th, 1503)
  • March 11: @ Seattle Kraken (13th, 1525)

Overall Ratings

 1       Boston Bruins                 1663 (▲12)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           1602 (▲3)
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           1564 (▼10)
 4       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          1556 (▼2)
 5       Dallas Stars (▲5)             1547 (▲14)
 6       Los Angeles Kings (▲3)        1544 (▲10)
 7       New Jersey Devils (▲1)        1543 (▲7)
 8 (tie) New York Rangers (▼2)         1542 (▼15)
 8 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼4)      1542 (▼26)
10       Minnesota Wild (▲2)           1537 (▲14)
11       Colorado Avalanche (▼4)       1534 (▼11)
12       Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     1532 (▲7)
13       Seattle Kraken (▲2)           1525 (▲14)
14       New York Islanders            1519 (▲7)
15       Florida Panthers (▲2)         1515 (▲8)
16       Nashville Predators (▲1)      1514 (▲7)
17       Ottawa Senators (▲5)          1507 (▲29)
18 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      1505 (▲3)
18 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            1505 (▲3)
20       Buffalo Sabres (▼4)           1503 (▼6)
21       Calgary Flames (▼8)           1501 (▼13)
22       Washington Capitals (▲1)      1477 (▲7)
23       Detroit Red Wings (▼2)        1463 (▼27)
24       Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      1458 (▲8)
25       St. Louis Blues (▼1)          1457 (▼4)
26       Vancouver Canucks             1442 (▲6)
27       Montreal Canadiens            1419 (▼9)
28       Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    1417 (▼1)
29       Arizona Coyotes               1416 (▼2)
30       Anaheim Ducks (▲2)            1415 (▲14)
31       San Jose Sharks (▼4)          1405 (▼23)
32       Chicago Blackhawks (▼1)       1386 (▼24)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           78% (▼3)
 2       New Jersey Devils             22% (▲5)
 3 (tie) New York Islanders (▲1)       <1%
 3 (tie) New York Rangers              <1% (▼2)
 3 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      <1%
 3 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      <1%
 3 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲1)      <1%
 8       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼4)    — (▼1)

Atlantic Division

 1       Boston Bruins                 >99%
 2 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
 2 (tie) Florida Panthers              <1%
 2 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%
 2 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           <1%
 2 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           <1%
 7 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼5)        — (▼1)
 7 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▼5)       — (▼1)

Central Division

 1       Dallas Stars (▲1)             56% (▲18)
 2       Colorado Avalanche (▼1)       20% (▼24)
 3       Minnesota Wild                19% (▲9)
 4       Winnipeg Jets                 3% (▼3)
 5       Nashville Predators           1% (▼1)
 6 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1%
 6 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%
 6 (tie) St. Louis Blues               <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          42%
 2       Los Angeles Kings             26% (▲4)
 3       Seattle Kraken (▲1)           23% (▲10)
 4       Edmonton Oilers (▼2)          9% (▼13)
 5 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            <1%
 5 (tie) Calgary Flames                <1% (▼1)
 5 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1)          <1%
 5 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        <1%

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           >99%
 1 (tie) New Jersey Devils             >99%
 3       New York Rangers              96% (▼2)
 4       Pittsburgh Penguins           62% (▲9)
 5       New York Islanders            46% (▲7)
 6       Washington Capitals           12% (▲5)
 7 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         <1%
 7 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1%

Atlantic Division

 1 (tie) Boston Bruins                 >99%
 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           >99%
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼2)      97% (▼3)
 4       Buffalo Sabres                37% (▼14)
 5       Ottawa Senators (▲2)          26% (▲18)
 6       Florida Panthers              21% (▲3)
 7       Detroit Red Wings (▼2)        3% (▼24)
 8       Montreal Canadiens            <1%

Central Division

 1       Dallas Stars                  99% (▲3)
 2       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           94% (▲12)
 3       Colorado Avalanche (▼2)       92% (▼4)
 4       Winnipeg Jets                 72% (▼1)
 5       Nashville Predators           45%
 6 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲1)          <1%
 6 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       <1%
 6 (tie) St. Louis Blues               <1% (▼2)

Pacific Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          98% (▲2)
 2       Los Angeles Kings             97% (▲5)
 3       Seattle Kraken (▲1)           96% (▲13)
 4       Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          90% (▼1)
 5       Calgary Flames                16% (▼29)
 6 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 <1%
 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks               <1%
 6 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             <1%

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Boston Bruins                 99% (▲3)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           1% (▼3)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Boston Bruins                 30% (▲5)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           12%
 3 (tie) Edmonton Oilers               6% (▼1)
 3 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           6% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲3)             5% (▲1)
 5 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲3)        5% (▲1)
 7 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼1)       4% (▼1)
 7 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲5)           4% (▲1)
 7 (tie) New York Rangers (▼1)         4% (▼1)
 7 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1)        4%
 7 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     4%
12 (tie) Seattle Kraken                3%
12 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼7)      3% (▼3)
14 (tie) Nashville Predators           2%
14 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 2%
16 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           1%
16 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼2)           1% (▼1)
16 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲1)         1%
16 (tie) New York Islanders (▲1)       1%
16 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲6)          1% (▲1)
16 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      1%
22 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 <1%
22 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1%
22 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%
22 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         <1%
22 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼5)        <1% (▼1)
22 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
22 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1%
22 (tie) San Jose Sharks               <1%
22 (tie) St. Louis Blues               <1%
22 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             <1%
22 (tie) Washington Capitals           <1%

 

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – February 26, 2023

Hockey playerThere are 1312 regular season games in the NHL this year, and by February 26, 950 of those games have been played.  For those of you keeping score at home, that’s just over 72% of the games.  And what’s becoming clear is that Boston is having an amazing season.  After playing 58 of their 82 games, they have a record of 45 wins, 8 losses, and 5 overtime losses, sitting at 95 points, far ahead of the next closest team, Carolina, who has 86 points.  And to top it off, their goalie, Linus Ullmark, scored an empty-net goal on Saturday in a game against Vancouver, becoming just the 13th goalie in NHL history to score, and the first since Pekka Rinne did it on January 9, 2020.

Unsurprisingly, Boston retains the top ranking in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings.  They went 3-0-0 this week, beating 22nd-ranked Ottawa, 15th-ranked Seattle, and 26th-ranked Vancouver.  They gained 14 rating points, and are now sitting with 1651 rating points, 52 rating points ahead of the next closest team, Carolina.  We’re giving them a greater than 99% chance of making the playoffs, a 96% chance of winning the President’s Trophy as the team with the best regular season record, and a 25% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.

Carolina continues to be ranked 2nd in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings.  They went 2-1-0 this week, beating 24th-ranked St. Louis and 22nd-ranked Ottawa, but finishing the week with a loss to the worst-in-league Anaheim Ducks.  They are the only other team besides Boston that have any chance of winning the President’s Trophy, and they’ve only got a 4% chance of doing that.  But, they do have a greater than 99% chance of making the playoffs, and a 12% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.

Toronto moved up two places in our rankings this week, going from 5th last week up to 3rd.  They went 3-0-0, with two regulation wins over 16th-ranked Buffalo and 15th-ranked Seattle, and an overtime win against 12th-ranked Minnesota.  They also have a greater than 99% chance of making the playoffs, and a 7% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.

Tampa Bay stayed in 4th place in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings, having kind of a middling performance this week.  They started the week with a victory over 32nd-ranked Anaheim, but then lost in overtime to 16th-ranked Buffalo.  Then, they turned it around with a win over 21st-ranked Detroit, but finished the week with a regulation loss to 19th-ranked Pittsburgh.  We’ve dropped them one rating point, but they still stay in 4th in our rankings.  They are yet another team with a greater than 99% chance of making the playoffs, and have a 6% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.  They are currently in 3rd place in that tough Atlantic Division, behind Boston and Toronto.  3 of our top 4 teams come from the Atlantic Division!

There’s a new team in our top 5 this week, with Edmonton moving up from 6th in last week’s report, and pushing the New York Rangers down to 6th.  Edmonton went 2-1-0 this week, beating 25th-ranked Philadelphia and 19th-ranked Pittsburgh, but losing to 29th-ranked Columbus.  Despite being the only team in the Pacific Division in the top 5, they are only in 3rd in that division, 4 points behind 11th-ranked Vegas and 2 points behind 9th-ranked Los Angeles.  We’re giving them a 91% chance of making the playoffs and a 7% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.

The biggest upward mover in our ratings this week was Anaheim.  Despite being ranked worst in the NHL, they picked up 23 points this week, moving above the 1400-point stink line to finish the week with 1401 rating points.  They went 2-1-1 this week with all four of their games on the road, losing in overtime to 17th-ranked Florida, losing in regulation time to 4th-ranked Tampa Bay, but then winning their last two games of the week in regulation time against 23rd-ranked Washington and 2nd-ranked Carolina.

The two biggest downward movers this week were Seattle, down 22 rating points, and New York Rangers, down 21.  Seattle lost all 3 of their games in regulation time, losing to 27th-ranked San Jose, 1st-ranked Boston, and 3rd-ranked Toronto, and saw their ranking drop from 10th all the way down to 15th.  The Rangers went 1-3-0 this week, losing to 19th-ranked Winnipeg, 21st-ranked Detroit, and 23rd-ranked Washington, before finishing the week with a victory over 9th-ranked Los Angeles.  Their poor showing saw them drop out of the top 5, from 3rd last week in our rankings down to 6th this week.

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

The top 5

1. Boston Bruins (1651, ▲14)

Record: 45-8-5, 1st in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: >99%
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 96% (▲8)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 25% (▲4)

Last week: 3-0-0

  • February 20: Won 3-1 vs. Ottawa Senators (22nd, 1478)
  • February 23: Won 6-5 @ Seattle Kraken (15th, 1511)
  • February 25: Won 3-1 @ Vancouver Canucks (26th, 1436)

Next week:

  • February 27: @ Edmonton Oilers (5th, 1558)
  • February 28: @ Calgary Flames (13th, 1514)
  • March 2: vs. Buffalo Sabres (16th, 1509)
  • March 4: vs. New York Rangers (6th, 1557)

2. Carolina Hurricanes (1599, ▼4)

Record: 39-11-8, 1st in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: >99%
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 4% (▼7)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 12% (▼1)

Last week: 2-1-0

  • February 21: Won 4-1 vs. St. Louis Blues (24th, 1461)
  • February 24: Won 4-0 vs. Ottawa Senators (22nd, 1478)
  • February 25: Lost 3-2 vs. Anaheim Ducks (32nd, 1401)

Next week:

  • March 1: @ Vegas Golden Knights (11th, 1525)
  • March 3: @ Arizona Coyotes (29th, 1418)
  • March 5: vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (4th, 1568)

3. Toronto Maple Leafs ▲2 (1574, ▲12)

Record: 37-15-8, 2nd in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: >99% (▲1)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲1)

Last week: 3-0-0

  • February 21: Won 6-3 @ Buffalo Sabres (16th, 1509)
  • February 24: Won in OT 2-1 vs. Minnesota Wild (12th, 1523)
  • February 26: Won 5-1 @ Seattle Kraken (15th, 1511)

Next week:

  • March 1: @ Edmonton Oilers (5th, 1558)
  • March 2: @ Calgary Flames (13th, 1514)
  • March 4: @ Vancouver Canucks (26th, 1436)

4. Tampa Bay Lightning (1568, ▼1)

Record: 37-18-4, 3rd in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: >99% (▲1)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 6%

Last week: 2-1-1

  • February 21: Won 6-1 vs. Anaheim Ducks (32nd, 1401)
  • February 23: Lost in OT 6-5 vs. Buffalo Sabres (16th, 1509)
  • February 25: Won 3-0 @ Detroit Red Wings (21st, 1490)
  • February 26: Lost 7-3 @ Pittsburgh Penguins (19th, 1502)

Next week:

  • February 28: vs. Florida Panthers (17th, 1507)
  • March 2: vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (19th, 1502)
  • March 4: @ Buffalo Sabres (16th, 1509)
  • March 5: @ Carolina Hurricanes (2nd, 1599)

5. Edmonton Oilers ▲1 (1558, ▲2)

Record: 32-20-8, 3rd in Pacific Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 91% (▲1)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲1)

Last week: 2-1-0

  • February 21: Won 4-2 vs. Philadelphia Flyers (25th, 1450)
  • February 23: Won 7-2 @ Pittsburgh Penguins (19th, 1502)
  • February 25: Lost 6-5 @ Columbus Blue Jackets (29th, 1418)

Next week:

  • February 27: vs. Boston Bruins (1st, 1651)
  • March 1: vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (3rd, 1574)
  • March 3: vs. Winnipeg Jets (19th, 1502)
  • March 4: @ Winnipeg Jets (19th, 1502)

Overall Ratings

 1       Boston Bruins                 1651 (▲14)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           1599 (▼4)
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲2)      1574 (▲12)
 4       Tampa Bay Lightning           1568 (▼1)
 5       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          1558 (▲2)
 6       New York Rangers (▼3)         1557 (▼21)
 7       Colorado Avalanche (▲4)       1545 (▲14)
 8       New Jersey Devils (▼1)        1536 (▼7)
 9       Los Angeles Kings             1534 (▼4)
10       Dallas Stars (▼3)             1533 (▼10)
11       Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     1525 (▼4)
12       Minnesota Wild (▲4)           1523 (▲12)
13       Calgary Flames                1514 (▼8)
14       New York Islanders (▲5)       1512 (▲17)
15       Seattle Kraken (▼5)           1511 (▼22)
16       Buffalo Sabres (▲2)           1509 (▲11)
17 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼3)         1507 (▼13)
17 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲2)      1507 (▲12)
19 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼2)      1502 (▼8)
19 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼4)            1502 (▼14)
21       Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        1490 (▲9)
22       Ottawa Senators (▲1)          1478
23       Washington Capitals (▼2)      1470 (▼15)
24       St. Louis Blues               1461 (▼5)
25       Philadelphia Flyers           1450 (▼9)
26       Vancouver Canucks             1436 (▼1)
27 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲2)       1428 (▲12)
27 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1)          1428 (▲1)
29 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▼2)          1418 (▼14)
29 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    1418 (▲7)
31       Chicago Blackhawks            1410 (▲14)
32       Anaheim Ducks                 1401 (▲23)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           81% (▲5)
 2       New Jersey Devils             17% (▲1)
 3       New York Rangers              2% (▼6)
 4 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         <1%
 4 (tie) New York Islanders            <1%
 4 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1%
 4 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins           <1%
 4 (tie) Washington Capitals           <1%

Atlantic Division

 1       Boston Bruins                 >99% (▲1)
 2 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           <1%
 2 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        <1%
 2 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲1)         <1%
 2 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲1)       <1%
 2 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1)          <1%
 2 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           <1% (▼1)
 2 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1)      <1%

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       44% (▲17)
 2       Dallas Stars (▼1)             38% (▼10)
 3       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           10% (▲5)
 4       Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            6% (▼13)
 5       Nashville Predators           2% (▲1)
 6 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1%
 6 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%
 6 (tie) St. Louis Blues               <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          42% (▲12)
 2 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲2)          22% (▲8)
 2 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        22% (▼1)
 4       Seattle Kraken (▼3)           13% (▼17)
 5       Calgary Flames                1% (▼2)
 6 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 <1%
 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks               <1%
 6 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             <1%

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           >99%
 1 (tie) New Jersey Devils             >99%
 3       New York Rangers              98% (▼1)
 4       Pittsburgh Penguins           53% (▼6)
 5       New York Islanders            39% (▲15)
 6       Washington Capitals (▼1)      7% (▼17)
 7 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    <1%
 7 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1% (▼1)

Atlantic Division

 1 (tie) Boston Bruins                 >99%
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      >99% (▲1)
 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1)      >99% (▲1)
 4       Buffalo Sabres                51% (▲16)
 5       Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        27% (▲6)
 6       Florida Panthers (▼1)         18% (▼10)
 7       Ottawa Senators               8% (▼3)
 8       Montreal Canadiens            <1%

Central Division

 1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       96% (▲6)
 1 (tie) Dallas Stars                  96%
 3       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           82% (▲19)
 4       Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            73% (▼14)
 5       Nashville Predators           45% (▲19)
 6       St. Louis Blues               2% (▼2)
 7 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1%
 7 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          96% (▲1)
 2       Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        92% (▼1)
 3       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          91% (▲1)
 4       Seattle Kraken (▼3)           83% (▼12)
 5       Calgary Flames                45% (▼16)
 6 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 <1%
 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks               <1%
 6 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             <1%

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Boston Bruins                 96% (▲8)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           4% (▼7)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Boston Bruins                 25% (▲4)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           12% (▼1)
 3 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          7% (▲1)
 3 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1)      7% (▲1)
 5       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      6%
 6 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲3)       5% (▲1)
 6 (tie) New York Rangers (▼3)         5% (▼3)
 8 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼1)             4% (▼1)
 8 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        4% (▼1)
 8 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1)        4%
 8 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     4%
12 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲3)           3% (▲1)
12 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▼3)           3% (▼1)
14 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼1)           2% (▼1)
14 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲2)      2% (▲1)
14 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            2% (▼1)
17 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▼1)           1%
17 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲4)        1% (▲1)
17 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼1)         1%
17 (tie) New York Islanders (▼1)       1%
17 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1)      1%
22 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼1)            <1%
22 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▼1)          <1%
22 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▼1)       <1%
22 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1)    <1%
22 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▼1)       <1%
22 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▼1)          <1%
22 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      <1%
22 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼1)          <1%
22 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼1)          <1%
22 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼1)        <1%
22 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼1)      <1%

 

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – February 19, 2023

Hockey playerAnother week closer to the Stanley Cup playoffs!  There was little change in the top 5 in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings this week, with all five teams in the top 5 still in the top 5.  The only change was that the New York Rangers and the Tampa Bay Lightning swapping spots, with New York now ranked 3rd and Tampa Bay ranked 4th.

The top ranked team continues to be Boston, who went 3-0-0 and saw their McDonald NHL Power Ratings rating increase by 9 points, up to 1637.  They beat 7th-ranked Dallas in overtime, then had regulation wins against 19th-ranked Nashville and the also-19th-ranked New York Islanders.  We’ve got them pegged as shoe-ins for the playoffs, with a greater than 99% chance of making it, as well as an 88% chance of winning the President’s Trophy, up 5% from last week.  They continue to be our favourites to win the Stanley Cup, with a 21% chance, up 3% from last week.

The number 2 team in our rankings is Carolina again this week.  They also went 3-0-0, with home-and-home regulation wins against 21st-ranked Washington and a home win against 29th-ranked Montreal.  With their strong week, they gained 15 rating points, which moved them into the rarefied air of a rating over 1600, currently sitting at 1603.  We’ve calculated that they have a greater than 99% chance of making the playoffs, an 11% chance of winning the President’s Trophy, and a 13% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.

The New York Rangers moved into 3rd in our rankings after going 2-0-1 this week on a Western Canada road trip.  They started the week with a regulation victory over 26th-ranked Vancouver, then needed a shootout to beat 6th-ranked Edmonton, and finished the week with an overtime loss to 13th-ranked Calgary.  They’ve got a 99% chance of making the playoffs, an 8% chance of winning the Stanley Cup, but less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Tampa Bay dropped down to 4th in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings rankings, going 1-1-1 this week, with their only victory coming in a shootout against 11th-ranked Colorado.  Their other two games saw them lose in a shootout to 27th-ranked Arizona and in regulation time to 12th-ranked Vegas.  Still, we’re giving them a 99% chance of making the playoffs and a 6% chance of winning the Stanley Cup, although the latter is down 2% from last week,  Also down 2% is their chances of winning the President’s Trophy, as we’re now giving them less than a 1% chance of finishing with the best regular season record.

Rounding out the top 5 is Toronto.  They went 2-1-0 in a weak opponent week, splitting a pair of games against 31st-ranked Chicago, and having a resounding victory over 29th-ranked Montreal in a classic Hockey Night In Canada showdown.  They also have a 99% chance of making the playoffs and a 6% chance of winning the Stanley Cup, as well as less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

The biggest upward mover this week was Columbus, who went 2-1-1 to pick up 17 rating points and move them above the 1400 rating point stink line.  They had regulation victories over 15th-ranked Winnipeg and 7th-ranked Dallas, a regulation loss to 7th-ranked New Jersey, and an overtime loss to 27th-ranked Arizona.  Despite moving above the stink line, they’ve still got less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs.

The week’s worst performance, ratings-wise, was by Washington, who went 0-3-0 in a tough week.  They lost both ends of a home-and-home series with 2nd-ranked Carolina, as well as suffered a loss to 14th-ranked Florida at home.  This performance saw their chances of making the playoffs halved, going from 47% last week to 23% this week.  We’re also giving them less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs.

And speaking of playoffs, let’s take a look at teams’ chances of making them.  In the Eastern Conference, we’ve got 6 teams that we’re very confident will make the playoffs:

  Boston Bruins                 >99%
  Carolina Hurricanes           >99%
  New Jersey Devils             >99%
  New York Rangers              99%
  Tampa Bay Lightning           99%
  Toronto Maple Leafs           99%

Chasing the last two playoff spots in the East are the following teams, with us not bothering to list the teams that we don’t think have any chance of making the playoffs:

  Pittsburgh Penguins           59%
  Buffalo Sabres                35%
  Florida Panthers              28%
  New York Islanders            24%
  Washington Capitals           24%
  Detroit Red Wings             21%
  Ottawa Senators               11%

And in the Western Conference, there’s also 6 teams that we’re very confident of (at least 90% chance of making the playoffs):

  Dallas Stars                  96%
  Seattle Kraken                95%
  Vegas Golden Knights          95%
  Los Angeles Kings             93%
  Colorado Avalanche            90%
  Edmonton Oilers               90%

And battling for the last two spots are:

  Winnipeg Jets                 87%
  Minnesota Wild                63%
  Calgary Flames                61%
  Nashville Predators           26%

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

The top 5

1. Boston Bruins (1637, ▲9)

Record: 42-8-5, 1st in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: >99%
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 88% (▲5)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 21% (▲3)

Last week: 3-0-0

  • February 14: Won in OT 3-2 @ Dallas Stars (7th, 1543)
  • February 16: Won 5-0 @ Nashville Predators (19th, 1495)
  • February 18: Won 6-2 vs. New York Islanders (19th, 1495)

Next week:

  • February 20: vs. Ottawa Senators (23rd, 1478)
  • February 23: @ Seattle Kraken (10th, 1533)
  • February 25: @ Vancouver Canucks (26th, 1437)

2. Carolina Hurricanes (1603, ▲15)

Record: 37-10-8, 1st in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: >99%
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 11%
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 13% (▲3)

Last week: 3-0-0

  • February 14: Won 3-2 @ Washington Capitals (21st, 1485)
  • February 16: Won 6-2 vs. Montreal Canadiens (29th, 1416)
  • February 18: Won 4-1 vs. Washington Capitals (21st, 1485)

Next week:

  • February 21: vs. St. Louis Blues (24th, 1466)
  • February 24: vs. Ottawa Senators (23rd, 1478)
  • February 25: vs. Anaheim Ducks (32nd, 1378)

3. New York Rangers ▲1 (1578, ▲5)

Record: 33-14-9, 3rd in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 99% (▲1)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: <1% (▼1)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 8%

Last week: 2-0-1

  • February 15: Won 6-4 @ Vancouver Canucks (26th, 1437)
  • February 17: Won in SO 5-4 @ Edmonton Oilers (6th, 1556)
  • February 18: Lost in OT 3-2 @ Calgary Flames (13th, 1522)

Next week:

  • February 20: vs. Winnipeg Jets (15th, 1516)
  • February 23: @ Detroit Red Wings (22nd, 1481)
  • February 25: @ Washington Capitals (21st, 1485)
  • February 26: vs. Los Angeles Kings (9th, 1538)

4. Tampa Bay Lightning ▼1 (1569, ▼10)

Record: 35-17-3, 3rd in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 99%
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: <1% (▼2)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▼2)

Last week: 1-1-1

  • February 14: Won in SO 4-3 @ Colorado Avalanche (11th, 1531)
  • February 15: Lost in SO 1-0 @ Arizona Coyotes (27th, 1432)
  • February 18: Lost 5-4 @ Vegas Golden Knights (12th, 1529)

Next week:

  • February 21: vs. Anaheim Ducks (32nd, 1378)
  • February 23: vs. Buffalo Sabres (18th, 1498)
  • February 25: @ Detroit Red Wings (22nd, 1481)
  • February 26: @ Pittsburgh Penguins (17th, 1510)

5. Toronto Maple Leafs (1562, ▼3)

Record: 34-15-8, 2nd in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 99%
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: <1% (▼1)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 6%

Last week: 2-1-0

  • February 15: Won 5-2 vs. Chicago Blackhawks (31st, 1396)
  • February 18: Won 5-1 vs. Montreal Canadiens (29th, 1416)
  • February 19: Lost 5-3 @ Chicago Blackhawks (31st, 1396)

Next week:

  • February 21: @ Buffalo Sabres (18th, 1498)
  • February 24: vs. Minnesota Wild (16th, 1511)
  • February 26: @ Seattle Kraken (10th, 1533)

Overall Ratings

 1       Boston Bruins                 1637 (▲9)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           1603 (▲15)
 3       New York Rangers (▲1)         1578 (▲5)
 4       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      1569 (▼10)
 5       Toronto Maple Leafs           1562 (▼3)
 6       Edmonton Oilers               1556 (▼3)
 7 (tie) Dallas Stars                  1543 (▼10)
 7 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲2)        1543 (▲11)
 9       Los Angeles Kings (▲2)        1538 (▲8)
10       Seattle Kraken (▲3)           1533 (▲13)
11       Colorado Avalanche (▲4)       1531 (▲15)
12       Vegas Golden Knights (▲3)     1529 (▲13)
13       Calgary Flames (▼3)           1522 (▼9)
14       Florida Panthers (▼2)         1520 (▼6)
15       Winnipeg Jets (▼7)            1516 (▼17)
16       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           1511 (▼2)
17       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼3)      1510 (▼8)
18       Buffalo Sabres (▲3)           1498 (▲7)
19 (tie) New York Islanders (▲1)       1495 (▲2)
19 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼1)      1495 (▼16)
21       Washington Capitals (▼2)      1485 (▼20)
22       Detroit Red Wings (▲2)        1481 (▲14)
23       Ottawa Senators (▼1)          1478 (▲5)
24       St. Louis Blues (▲1)          1466 (▲2)
25       Philadelphia Flyers (▼2)      1459 (▼13)
26       Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        1437 (▼5)
27       Arizona Coyotes (▲1)          1432 (▲14)
28       San Jose Sharks (▼2)          1427 (▼19)
29       Montreal Canadiens            1416 (▼1)
30       Columbus Blue Jackets         1411 (▲17)
31       Chicago Blackhawks            1396 (▲5)
32       Anaheim Ducks                 1378 (▼11)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           76% (▲7)
 2       New Jersey Devils             16% (▼4)
 3       New York Rangers              8% (▼3)
 4 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         <1%
 4 (tie) New York Islanders            <1%
 4 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1%
 4 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins           <1%
 4 (tie) Washington Capitals           <1%

Atlantic Division

 1       Boston Bruins                 99% (▲3)
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           1% (▼2)
 3 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           <1%
 3 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        <1%
 3 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲1)         <1%
 3 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲1)       <1%
 3 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1)          <1%
 3 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           <1% (▼1)

Central Division

 1       Dallas Stars                  48% (▼10)
 2       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       27% (▲18)
 3       Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            19% (▼7)
 4       Minnesota Wild                5%
 5       Nashville Predators           1% (▼2)
 6 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1%
 6 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%
 6 (tie) St. Louis Blues               <1%

Pacific Division

 1 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲1)           30% (▲5)
 1 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲2)     30% (▲6)
 3       Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        23% (▲5)
 4       Edmonton Oilers (▼3)          14% (▼12)
 5       Calgary Flames                3% (▼4)
 6 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 <1%
 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks               <1%
 6 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             <1%

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           >99%
 1 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1)        >99% (▲1)
 3       New York Rangers              99% (▲1)
 4       Pittsburgh Penguins           59% (▼7)
 5 (tie) New York Islanders (▲1)       24% (▲3)
 5 (tie) Washington Capitals           24% (▼23)
 7       Philadelphia Flyers           1% (▼2)
 8       Columbus Blue Jackets         <1%

Atlantic Division

 1       Boston Bruins                 >99%
 2 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           99%
 2 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           99%
 4       Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           35% (▲10)
 5       Florida Panthers (▼1)         28% (▼1)
 6       Detroit Red Wings             21% (▲11)
 7       Ottawa Senators               11% (▲6)
 8       Montreal Canadiens            <1%

Central Division

 1       Dallas Stars                  96% (▼2)
 2       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       90% (▲18)
 3       Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            87% (▼5)
 4       Minnesota Wild                63% (▲1)
 5       Nashville Predators           26% (▼23)
 6       St. Louis Blues               4% (▼1)
 7 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1%
 7 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%

Pacific Division

 1 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲1)           95% (▲6)
 1 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲2)     95% (▲7)
 3       Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        93% (▲8)
 4       Edmonton Oilers (▼3)          90% (▼1)
 5       Calgary Flames                61% (▼7)
 6 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 <1%
 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks               <1%
 6 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             <1%

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Boston Bruins                 88% (▲5)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           11%
 3       New Jersey Devils             1% (▼1)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Boston Bruins                 21% (▲3)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           13% (▲3)
 3       New York Rangers              8%
 4 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          6% (▼1)
 4 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      6% (▼2)
 4 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲3)      6%
 7 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼2)             5% (▼2)
 7 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲2)        5% (▲1)
 9 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲2)       4% (▲1)
 9 (tie) New Jersey Devils             4%
 9 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲2)           4% (▲1)
 9 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲2)     4% (▲1)
13 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼2)           3%
13 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼5)            3% (▼2)
15       Minnesota Wild                2%
16 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲2)           1%
16 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲2)         1%
16 (tie) New York Islanders (▲2)       1%
16 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼1)      1% (▼1)
16 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1)      1% (▼1)
21 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            <1%
21 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲1)          <1%
21 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       <1%
21 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    <1%
21 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        <1%
21 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲1)       <1%
21 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1)          <1%
21 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      <1%
21 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1)          <1%
21 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲1)          <1%
21 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        <1%
21 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼3)      <1% (▼1)

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – February 12, 2023

Hockey playerAfter lots of travelling, I’m finally back to producing my McDonald NHL Power Ratings!  And look, at the top, nothing has changed!

The top ranked team in our ratings continues to be Boston, although their rating has dropped a bit in the last week, as they lost their only game of the week, a 2-1 loss to 19th-ranked Washington.  But still, they’re sitting at 1628 rating points, 40 points ahead of the next-highest-ranked team, Carolina.  Their 39-8-5 record remains the best in the NHL, and we’re giving them a greater than 99% chance of making the playoffs, an 83% chance of winning the President’s Trophy, and an 18% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.

The #2 team in our rankings continues to be Carolina, who lost their only game of the week to the surging New York Rangers.  They are sitting with 1588 rating points, and with a 34-10-8 record, best in the Metropolitan Division, they’ve got a greater than 99% chance of making the playoffs, an 11% chance of winning the President’s Trophy, and a 10% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.

Tampa Bay is ranked third, the same as last week.  Despite being ranked third overall, they are currently in 3rd place in that tough Atlantic Division with a 34-16-2 record, two points behind Toronto but with two games in hand.  They had a mixed week, playing four games, losing to 12th-ranked Florida, losing in overtime to 26th-ranked San Jose, but turning it around and beating 15th-ranked Colorado and 7th-ranked Dallas.  We’re giving them a 99% chance of making the playoffs, a 2% chance of winning the President’s Trophy, and an 8% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.

The New York Rangers jumped up 3 spots in our rankings to 4th, after going 4-0-0 this past week.  They started the week with an overtime win against 10th-ranked Calgary, then followed it with 3 regulation wins, over 27th-ranked Vancouver, 13th-ranked Seattle, and 2nd-ranked Carolina.  Our calculations and simulations are giving them a 98% chance of making the playoffs, a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy, and an 8% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.

Rounding out the top 5 is Toronto, who dropped one spot in the rankings.  They split their games this week, a home-and-home series against 30th-ranked Columbus, with a victory on the road and a loss at home.  They have a 99% chance of making the playoffs, a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy, and a 6% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.

The biggest upward mover this week was Vegas, who went 3-0-0 and gained 22 rating points, moving up from 20th to 15th in our rankings.  Despite such a low ranking, they are in 1st place in the Pacific Division!  Their three victories this week came against 18th-ranked Nashville, 17th-ranked Minnesota, and last-ranked Anaheim.

The worst performance of the week, according to our calculations, was by Minnesota, who went 1-3-0, dropping 24 rating points and 9 ranking positions, from 8th to 17th.  They lost to 28th-ranked Arizona, 7th-ranked Dallas, 15th-ranked Vegas, but ended the week with a shootout victory over 9th-ranked New Jersey.

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

The top 5

1. Boston Bruins (1628, ▼11)

Record: 39-8-5, 1st in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: >99%
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 83% (▼2)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 18% (▼3)

Last week: 0-1-0

  • February 11: Lost 2-1 vs. Washington Capitals (19th, 1505)

Next week:

  • February 14: @ Dallas Stars (7th, 1553)
  • February 16: @ Nashville Predators (18th, 1511)
  • February 18: vs. New York Islanders (20th, 1493)

2. Carolina Hurricanes (1588, ▼9)

Record: 34-10-8, 1st in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: >99%
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 11% (▼1)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▼1)

Last week: 0-1-0

  • February 11: Lost 6-2 vs. New York Rangers (4th, 1573)

Next week:

  • February 14: @ Washington Capitals (19th, 1505)
  • February 16: vs. Montreal Canadiens (29th, 1417)
  • February 18: vs. Washington Capitals (19th, 1505)

3. Tampa Bay Lightning (1579, ▲3)

Record: 34-16-2, 3rd in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 99%
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 2% (▲1)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲1)

Last week: 2-1-1

  • February 6: Lost 7-1 @ Florida Panthers (12th, 1526)
  • February 7: Lost in OT 4-3 vs. San Jose Sharks (26th, 1446)
  • February 9: Won 5-0 vs. Colorado Avalanche (15th, 1516)
  • February 11: Won 3-1 @ Dallas Stars (7th, 1553)

Next week:

  • February 14: @ Colorado Avalanche (15th, 1516)
  • February 15: @ Arizona Coyotes (28th, 1418)
  • February 18: @ Vegas Golden Knights (15th, 1516)

4. New York Rangers ▲3 (1573, ▲18)

Record: 31-14-8, 3rd in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 98% (▲9)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 1% (▲1)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲3)

Last week: 4-0-0

  • February 6: Won in OT 5-4 vs. Calgary Flames (10th, 1531)
  • February 8: Won 4-3 vs. Vancouver Canucks (27th, 1442)
  • February 10: Won 6-3 vs. Seattle Kraken (13th, 1520)
  • February 11: Won 6-2 @ Carolina Hurricanes (2nd, 1588)

Next week:

  • February 15: @ Vancouver Canucks (27th, 1442)
  • February 17: @ Edmonton Oilers (6th, 1559)
  • February 18: @ Calgary Flames (10th, 1531)

5. Toronto Maple Leafs ▼1 (1565, ▼7)

Record: 32-14-8, 2nd in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 99%
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 1%
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 6%

Last week: 1-1-0

  • February 10: Won 3-0 @ Columbus Blue Jackets (30th, 1394)
  • February 11: Lost 4-3 vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (30th, 1394)

Next week:

  • February 15: vs. Chicago Blackhawks (31st, 1391)
  • February 18: vs. Montreal Canadiens (29th, 1417)
  • February 19: @ Chicago Blackhawks (31st, 1391)

Overall Ratings

 1       Boston Bruins                 1628 (▼11)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           1588 (▼9)
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning           1579 (▲3)
 4       New York Rangers (▲3)         1573 (▲18)
 5       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      1565 (▼7)
 6       Edmonton Oilers               1559 (▲2)
 7       Dallas Stars (▼2)             1553 (▼6)
 8       Winnipeg Jets (▲3)            1533 (▲4)
 9       New Jersey Devils (▲3)        1532 (▲4)
10       Calgary Flames                1531 (▲1)
11       Los Angeles Kings (▲2)        1530 (▲7)
12       Florida Panthers (▲2)         1526 (▲4)
13       Seattle Kraken (▼4)           1520 (▼12)
14       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      1518 (▼2)
15 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲2)       1516 (▲4)
15 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲5)     1516 (▲22)
17       Minnesota Wild (▼9)           1513 (▼24)
18       Nashville Predators (▼3)      1511 (▼9)
19       Washington Capitals (▼1)      1505 (▲1)
20       New York Islanders (▲1)       1493 (▲4)
21       Buffalo Sabres (▼2)           1491 (▼8)
22       Ottawa Senators (▲1)          1473 (▼7)
23       Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      1472 (▼15)
24       Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        1467 (▲8)
25       St. Louis Blues (▼1)          1464 (▼2)
26       San Jose Sharks (▲1)          1446 (▲8)
27       Vancouver Canucks (▼1)        1442 (▲3)
28       Arizona Coyotes               1418 (▲11)
29       Montreal Canadiens            1417 (▲11)
30       Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2)    1394 (▲8)
31       Chicago Blackhawks (▼1)       1391 (▼5)
32       Anaheim Ducks (▼1)            1389 (▼5)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           69% (▼14)
 2       New Jersey Devils             20% (▲7)
 3       New York Rangers              11% (▲7)
 4 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         <1%
 4 (tie) New York Islanders            <1%
 4 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1%
 4 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins           <1%
 4 (tie) Washington Capitals           <1%

Atlantic Division

 1       Boston Bruins                 96% (▼1)
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           3% (▲1)
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           1%
 4 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
 4 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
 4 (tie) Florida Panthers              <1%
 4 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
 4 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%

Central Division

 1       Dallas Stars                  58% (▲4)
 2       Winnipeg Jets                 26% (▲6)
 3       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       9% (▲1)
 4       Minnesota Wild (▼1)           5% (▼10)
 5       Nashville Predators           3%
 6 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1%
 6 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%
 6 (tie) St. Louis Blues               <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          26% (▲1)
 2       Seattle Kraken (▼1)           25% (▼20)
 3       Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     24% (▲15)
 4       Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        18% (▲5)
 5       Calgary Flames                7% (▼1)
 6 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 <1%
 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks               <1%
 6 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             <1%

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           >99%
 2       New Jersey Devils             99% (▲1)
 3       New York Rangers              98% (▲9)
 4       Pittsburgh Penguins           66% (▲4)
 5       Washington Capitals           47%
 6       New York Islanders            21% (▲1)
 7       Philadelphia Flyers           3% (▼5)
 8       Columbus Blue Jackets         <1%

Atlantic Division

 1       Boston Bruins                 >99%
 2 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           99%
 2 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           99%
 4       Florida Panthers (▲1)         29% (▲2)
 5       Buffalo Sabres (▼1)           25% (▼10)
 6       Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        10% (▲3)
 7       Ottawa Senators (▼1)          5% (▼4)
 8       Montreal Canadiens            <1%

Central Division

 1       Dallas Stars                  98%
 2       Winnipeg Jets                 92% (▲2)
 3       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       72% (▲1)
 4       Minnesota Wild (▼1)           62% (▼20)
 5       Nashville Predators           49% (▼6)
 6       St. Louis Blues               5%
 7 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1%
 7 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          91% (▲3)
 2       Seattle Kraken (▼1)           89% (▼5)
 3       Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     88% (▲20)
 4       Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        85% (▲6)
 5       Calgary Flames (▼1)           68%
 6 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            <1%
 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1)          <1%
 6 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             <1% (▼1)

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Boston Bruins                 83% (▼2)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           11% (▼1)
 3 (tie) New Jersey Devils             2% (▲1)
 3 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           2% (▲1)
 5 (tie) New York Rangers (▲1)         1% (▲1)
 5 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼2)      1%

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Boston Bruins                 18% (▼3)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           10% (▼1)
 3 (tie) New York Rangers (▲4)         8% (▲3)
 3 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           8% (▲1)
 5 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼2)             7%
 5 (tie) Edmonton Oilers               7% (▲1)
 7       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼2)      6%
 8       Winnipeg Jets                 5% (▲1)
 9 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲2)        4% (▲1)
 9 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲2)        4% (▲1)
11 (tie) Calgary Flames                3%
11 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            3%
11 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▼3)           3% (▼1)
11 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲5)     3% (▲1)
15 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼7)           2% (▼2)
15 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼4)      2% (▼1)
15 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      2%
18 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                1%
18 (tie) Florida Panthers              1%
18 (tie) New York Islanders            1%
18 (tie) Washington Capitals           1%
22 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 <1%
22 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1%
22 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%
22 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         <1%
22 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
22 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
22 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%
22 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1%
22 (tie) San Jose Sharks               <1%
22 (tie) St. Louis Blues               <1%
22 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             <1%

 

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – January 8, 2023

Hockey playerWe’re almost halfway through the NHL season, and there’s one team that’s standing out from the rest.  Boston is having an amazing season, currently sitting with a record of 32 wins, 4 regular season losses, and 4 overtime losses.  They continue to sit at the top of our rankings, but there has been a bit of change in our top 5.

Boston continued their great run, going 4-0-0 this week, with regulation wins over 7th-ranked Pittsburgh, 12th-ranked Los Angeles, 28th-ranked San Jose, and 31st-ranked Anaheim.  Their performance garnered them 19 more rating points, putting them at 1632 for the year.  They currently sit in first place in the Atlantic Division, as well as the NHL, and we’ve calculated that they’ve got a greater than 99% chance of making the playoffs, an 82% chance of winning the President’s Trophy, and a 19% chance of winning the Stanley Cup!  They only have two games next week, both at home, one of which is against Toronto.

Toronto is ranked 2nd this week, up one swap from last week.  They went 2-1-1 this week, beating 24th-ranked Detroit and 26th-ranked Philadelphia, losing in overtime to 18th-ranked St. Louis, and losing in regulation to 14th-ranked Seattle.  With their middling performance, they lost 3 rating points, but due to Carolina’s poor week, they still moved up into 2nd place in our rankings.  Their big game this week will be on the 14th against Boston.

Carolina had a disastrous week, losing all three of their games.  They lost in regulation to the 5th-ranked New York Rangers and 19th-ranked Nashville, and lost in a shootout to 30th-ranked Columbus.  The boys in the back room have dropped their rating by 21 rating points, but that’s still good enough for 3rd in our rankings, down one spot from last week.

Dallas is fourth in our rankings, the same as last week.  They went 1-2-0 this week, beating 20th-ranked Florida but losing to 12th-ranked Los Angeles and 31st-ranked Anaheim.  That resulted in a 12 point rating drop, but they stay the same spot in the rankings.

Rounding out the top 5 is a newcomer, with the New York Rangers entering at number 5, 3 spots up from last week.  They had a fairly decent week, beating 3rd-ranked Carolina and 29th-ranked Montreal, but losing in overtime to 17th-ranked New Jersey.  Despite being in our top 5, we’re only giving them a 78% chance of even making the playoffs, as they currently sit in 4th place in the Metropolitan Division.

Seattle and Nashville were the top two movers this week.  Seattle won all three of their games, all in regulation time, and all on the road.  They beat 12th-ranked Edmonton, 2nd-ranked Toronto, and 23rd-ranked Ottawa to gain 27 ranking points and moving from 21st in our rankings all the way up to 14th!  Nashville also had a perfect week with 3 wins, beating 29th-ranked Montreal at home, and 3rd-ranked Carolina and 6th-ranked Washington on the road.  As a result, they picked up 25 rating points, and moved from 23rd to 19th in our rankings.

The biggest downward mover this week was Arizona, who lost all 4 of their games this week in regulation time, resulting in us dropping them 27 rating points.  However, that only resulted in them moving down one spot in the rankings, to 27th, but we now calculate that they’ve only got a 2% chance of making the playoffs, down from last week’s 13%!  Their losses were to 20th-ranked Florida, 26th-ranked Philadelphia, 32nd-ranked Chicago, and 7th-ranked Pittsburgh.

Boston remains our favourites to win both the President’s Trophy and the Stanley Cup.  We’re giving them an 82% chance of winning the President’s Trophy, up 25% from last week, with the next closest teams being Carolina and Toronto, the only other teams to have greater than a 1% chance of winning it, both at 6%.  We’ve calculated that Boston has a 19% chance of winning the Stanley Cup, up 5% from last week, with Toronto, Carolina, and Dallas the next most likely, at 9%, 8%, and 7%, respectively.

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

The top 5

1. Boston Bruins (1632, ▲19)

Record: 32-4-4, 1st in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: >99%
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 82% (▲25)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 19% (▲5)

Last week: 4-0-0

  • January 2: Won 2-1 vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (7th, 1540)
  • January 5: Won 5-2 @ Los Angeles Kings (12th, 1524)
  • January 7: Won 4-2 @ San Jose Sharks (28th, 1426)
  • January 8: Won 7-1 @ Anaheim Ducks (31st, 1383)

Next week:

  • January 12: vs. Seattle Kraken (14th, 1520)
  • January 14: vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (2nd, 1591)

2. Toronto Maple Leafs ▲1 (1591, ▼3)

Record: 25-9-7, 2nd in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 98%
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 6% (▼4)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▼1)

Last week: 2-1-1

  • January 3: Lost in SO 6-5 vs. St. Louis Blues (18th, 1509)
  • January 5: Lost 5-1 vs. Seattle Kraken (14th, 1520)
  • January 7: Won 4-1 vs. Detroit Red Wings (24th, 1465)
  • January 8: Won 6-2 @ Philadelphia Flyers (26th, 1457)

Next week:

  • January 11: vs. Nashville Predators (19th, 1507)
  • January 12: @ Detroit Red Wings (24th, 1465)
  • January 14: @ Boston Bruins (1st, 1632)

3. Carolina Hurricanes ▼1 (1578, ▼21)

Record: 25-8-7, 1st in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 98% (▼1)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 6% (▼16)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▼3)

Last week: 0-2-1

  • January 3: Lost 5-3 @ New York Rangers (5th, 1555)
  • January 5: Lost 5-3 vs. Nashville Predators (19th, 1507)
  • January 7: Lost in SO 4-3 @ Columbus Blue Jackets (30th, 1396)

Next week:

  • January 10: vs. New Jersey Devils (17th, 1513)
  • January 12: @ Columbus Blue Jackets (30th, 1396)
  • January 14: vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (7th, 1540)
  • January 15: vs. Vancouver Canucks (25th, 1464)

4. Dallas Stars (1559, ▼12)

Record: 24-11-6, 1st in Central Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 96% (▼2)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 1% (▼4)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▼2)

Last week: 1-2-0

  • January 3: Lost 3-2 @ Los Angeles Kings (12th, 1524)
  • January 4: Lost 2-0 @ Anaheim Ducks (31st, 1383)
  • January 8: Won 5-1 vs. Florida Panthers (20th, 1504)

Next week:

  • January 10: @ New York Islanders (16th, 1514)
  • January 12: @ New York Rangers (5th, 1555)
  • January 14: vs. Calgary Flames (11th, 1529)

5. New York Rangers ▲3 (1555, ▲13)

Record: 22-12-7, 4th in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 78% (▲14)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 5% (▲1)

Last week: 2-0-1

  • January 3: Won 5-3 vs. Carolina Hurricanes (3rd, 1578)
  • January 5: Won 4-1 @ Montreal Canadiens (29th, 1408)
  • January 7: Lost in OT 4-3 @ New Jersey Devils (17th, 1513)

Next week:

  • January 10: vs. Minnesota Wild (9th, 1538)
  • January 12: vs. Dallas Stars (4th, 1559)
  • January 15: vs. Montreal Canadiens (29th, 1408)

Overall Ratings

 1       Boston Bruins                 1632 (▲19)
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1)      1591 (▼3)
 3       Carolina Hurricanes (▼1)      1578 (▼21)
 4       Dallas Stars                  1559 (▼12)
 5       New York Rangers (▲3)         1555 (▲13)
 6       Washington Capitals           1544 (▼2)
 7       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1)      1540 (▼6)
 8       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼3)      1539 (▼9)
 9 (tie) Minnesota Wild                1538 (▼2)
 9 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲4)            1538 (▲19)
11       Calgary Flames (▼1)           1529 (▼2)
12 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          1524 (▼3)
12 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲3)        1524 (▲11)
14       Seattle Kraken (▲7)           1520 (▲27)
15       Vegas Golden Knights (▲2)     1517 (▲6)
16       New York Islanders (▼4)       1514 (▼7)
17       New Jersey Devils (▼3)        1513 (▼1)
18       St. Louis Blues (▲1)          1509 (▲12)
19       Nashville Predators (▲4)      1507 (▲25)
20       Florida Panthers              1504 (▲8)
21       Buffalo Sabres (▼3)           1503 (▲2)
22       Colorado Avalanche (▼6)       1498 (▼14)
23       Ottawa Senators (▲1)          1471 (▼3)
24       Detroit Red Wings (▼2)        1465 (▼20)
25       Vancouver Canucks             1464 (▼4)
26       Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      1457 (▲8)
27       Arizona Coyotes (▼1)          1430 (▼27)
28       San Jose Sharks               1426 (▼4)
29       Montreal Canadiens            1408 (▼1)
30       Columbus Blue Jackets         1396 (▼11)
31       Anaheim Ducks                 1383
32       Chicago Blackhawks            1374 (▲5)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           61% (▼15)
 2       New Jersey Devils             12% (▲5)
 3       New York Rangers (▲2)         11% (▲7)
 4       Washington Capitals           8% (▲3)
 5       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼2)      7% (▲1)
 6       New York Islanders            2%
 7 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         <1%
 7 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1%

Atlantic Division

 1       Boston Bruins                 91% (▲14)
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs           8% (▼10)
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning           1% (▼3)
 4 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
 4 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
 4 (tie) Florida Panthers              <1%
 4 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
 4 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%

Central Division

 1       Dallas Stars                  45% (▼17)
 2       Winnipeg Jets                 34% (▲19)
 3       Minnesota Wild                12% (▼1)
 4       Colorado Avalanche            4% (▼3)
 5       Nashville Predators           3% (▲2)
 6       St. Louis Blues (▼1)          2% (▲1)
 7 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1%
 7 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          36% (▼2)
 2       Seattle Kraken (▲2)           28% (▲14)
 3       Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        17%
 4       Calgary Flames (▼1)           10% (▼6)
 5       Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          8% (▼6)
 6 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            <1%
 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1)          <1%
 6 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             <1% (▼1)

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           98% (▼1)
 2       New Jersey Devils             79% (▲4)
 3       New York Rangers (▲2)         78% (▲14)
 4       Washington Capitals (▼1)      74% (▲1)
 5       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼2)      68% (▼5)
 6       New York Islanders            42% (▼8)
 7       Philadelphia Flyers           3%
 8       Columbus Blue Jackets         <1%

Atlantic Division

 1       Boston Bruins                 >99%
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs           98%
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning           84% (▼3)
 4       Buffalo Sabres                40% (▲11)
 5       Florida Panthers (▲1)         14% (▲3)
 6       Detroit Red Wings (▼1)        11% (▼15)
 7       Ottawa Senators (▼1)          10% (▼1)
 8       Montreal Canadiens            <1% (▼1)

Central Division

 1       Dallas Stars                  96% (▼2)
 2       Winnipeg Jets                 93% (▲8)
 3       Minnesota Wild                77% (▼5)
 4       Colorado Avalanche            54% (▼15)
 5       Nashville Predators (▲1)      48% (▲19)
 6       St. Louis Blues (▼1)          42% (▲9)
 7       Arizona Coyotes               2% (▼11)
 8       Chicago Blackhawks            <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          90% (▲2)
 2       Seattle Kraken (▲3)           84% (▲18)
 3       Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        78% (▲4)
 4       Calgary Flames (▼1)           65% (▼7)
 5       Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          60% (▼9)
 6       Vancouver Canucks             12% (▼8)
 7 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            <1%
 7 (tie) San Jose Sharks               <1% (▼1)

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Boston Bruins                 82% (▲25)
 2 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           6% (▼16)
 2 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1)      6% (▼4)
 4 (tie) Dallas Stars                  1% (▼4)
 4 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      1% (▼1)
 4 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲2)            1%

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Boston Bruins                 19% (▲5)
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1)      9% (▼1)
 3       Carolina Hurricanes (▼1)      8% (▼3)
 4       Dallas Stars                  7% (▼2)
 5 (tie) Minnesota Wild                5%
 5 (tie) New York Rangers (▲2)         5% (▲1)
 5 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲2)            5% (▲1)
 8 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼1)           4%
 8 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲5)        4% (▲1)
 8 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲9)           4% (▲2)
 8 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼3)      4% (▼1)
 8 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲5)     4% (▲1)
 8 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼1)      4%
14 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼7)          3% (▼1)
14 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼1)        3%
14 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼7)      3% (▼1)
17 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼4)       2% (▼1)
17 (tie) New York Islanders            2%
17 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲2)      2% (▲1)
17 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲2)          2% (▲1)
21 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▼2)           1%
21 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼2)         1%
23 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲2)            <1%
23 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲2)          <1%
23 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲2)       <1%
23 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2)    <1%
23 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼4)        <1% (▼1)
23 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲2)       <1%
23 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲2)          <1%
23 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲2)      <1%
23 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲2)          <1%
23 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼4)        <1% (▼1)

 

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – January 1, 2023

Hockey playerThe McDonald NHL Power Ratings reports are back!  After a long hiatus, I’ve returned, and the season looks quite interesting.

Boston is our top-ranked team, with a current score of 1613 rating points, above that “great team” 1600 rating point level.  They are having an amazing season, with a 28-4-4 record.  Surprisingly, two of their overtime losses came in the past week, as they lost 3-2 in a shootout to 24th-ranked Ottawa and 4-3 in overtime to 18th-ranked Buffalo.  But, they also had a 3-1 win over 14th-ranked New Jersey, so we actually gave them a 1 point bump in their rating.  We’re giving them a greater than 99% chance of making the playoffs, a greater than even (57%) chance of winning the President’s Trophy, and a 14% chance of winning the Stanley Cup, even though the season isn’t even half over yet!  But, things can change, so it’ll be interesting to see how the rest of the season plays out.

Carolina is the number 2 ranked team this week, up one position from last week.  They are sitting with 1599 rating points, just one point under the “great team” line.  We bumped them up 7 rating points and one position this week.  Although they had an easy week, they did go 3-0-0, with shutouts in regulation time over bottom-ranked Chicago and 20th-ranked Florida, and a shootout win over 14th-ranked New Jersey.  We’re giving them a 99% chance of making the playoffs, and the second most likely team to win the President’s Trophy (22%) and Stanley Cup (11%).

Toronto is ranked number 3 this week, down from 2nd last week.  They played three games on the road last week, beating 19th-ranked St. Louis in overtime, losing to 26th-ranked Arizona, then bouncing back by beating 16th-ranked Colorado.  We’ve calculated that they’ve got a 98% chance of making the playoffs, and a 10% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.

The surprising Dallas Stars come in 4th place in our rankings this week.  They had an outstanding week, winning all three of their games in regulation time, with victories over 23rd-ranked Nashville, 9th-ranked Minnesota, and 28th-ranked San Jose.  Their impressive showing gave them a 19 point bump in rating points from the boys in the back room, which moved them up from 5th in last week’s rankings.  We’re giving them a 98% chance of making the playoffs and a 9% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.

Rounding out this week’s top 5 is Tampa Bay, who moved into these hallowed heights with a 3-0-0 week, moving them up from 7th in last week’s rankings.  They defeated 29th-ranked Montreal and 26th-ranked Arizona in regulation time, as well as the 8th-ranked New York Rangers in a shootout.  Despite being in the top 5 in our rankings, they are 3rd in the Atlantic Division, behind #1 Boston and #3 Toronto!  What a tough division!

The top performing team this week was the aforementioned Dallas, with their 3-0-0 week and a 19-point leap in rating points.  Stinkers this week included bottom-ranked Chicago, who dropped 20 rating points to an abysmal 1369 score after losing all 4 of this week’s games in regulation time, and Pittsburgh, last week’s #4 who went 0-2-1 and dropped 19 rating points and 2 ranking positions.

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

The top 5

1. Boston Bruins (1613, ▲1)

Record: 28-4-4, 1st in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: >99%
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 57% (▼3)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 14%

Last week: 1-0-2

  • December 27: Lost in SO 3-2 @ Ottawa Senators (24th, 1474)
  • December 28: Won 3-1 @ New Jersey Devils (14th, 1514)
  • December 31: Lost in OT 4-3 vs. Buffalo Sabres (18th, 1501)

Next week:

  • January 2: vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (6th, 1546)
  • January 5: @ Los Angeles Kings (15th, 1513)
  • January 7: @ San Jose Sharks (28th, 1430)
  • January 8: @ Anaheim Ducks (31st, 1383)

2. Carolina Hurricanes ▲1 (1599, ▲7)

Record: 25-6-6, 1st in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 99% (▲1)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 22% (▲6)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 11% (▲1)

Last week: 3-0-0

  • December 27: Won 3-0 vs. Chicago Blackhawks (32nd, 1369)
  • December 30: Won 4-0 vs. Florida Panthers (20th, 1496)
  • January 1: Won in SO 5-4 @ New Jersey Devils (14th, 1514)

Next week:

  • January 3: @ New York Rangers (8th, 1542)
  • January 5: vs. Nashville Predators (23rd, 1482)
  • January 7: @ Columbus Blue Jackets (30th, 1407)

3. Toronto Maple Leafs ▼1 (1594, ▼4)

Record: 23-8-6, 2nd in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 98% (▲1)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 10% (▼2)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▼1)

Last week: 2-1-0

  • December 27: Won in OT 5-4 @ St. Louis Blues (19th, 1497)
  • December 29: Lost 6-3 @ Arizona Coyotes (26th, 1457)
  • December 31: Won 6-2 @ Colorado Avalanche (16th, 1512)

Next week:

  • January 3: vs. St. Louis Blues (19th, 1497)
  • January 5: vs. Seattle Kraken (21st, 1493)
  • January 7: vs. Detroit Red Wings (22nd, 1485)
  • January 8: @ Philadelphia Flyers (27th, 1449)

4. Dallas Stars ▲1 (1571, ▲19)

Record: 23-9-6, 1st in Central Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 98% (▲4)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 5% (▲3)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲2)

Last week: 3-0-0

  • December 27: Won 3-2 @ Nashville Predators (23rd, 1482)
  • December 29: Won 4-1 @ Minnesota Wild (9th, 1540)
  • December 31: Won 5-2 vs. San Jose Sharks (28th, 1430)

Next week:

  • January 3: @ Los Angeles Kings (15th, 1513)
  • January 4: @ Anaheim Ducks (31st, 1383)
  • January 8: vs. Florida Panthers (20th, 1496)

5. Tampa Bay Lightning ▲2 (1548, ▲8)

Record: 23-11-1, 3rd in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 87% (▲8)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 2% (▲1)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 5% (▲1)

Last week: 3-0-0

  • December 28: Won 4-1 vs. Montreal Canadiens (29th, 1409)
  • December 29: Won in SO 2-1 vs. New York Rangers (8th, 1542)
  • December 31: Won 5-3 vs. Arizona Coyotes (26th, 1457)

Next week:

  • January 3: @ Chicago Blackhawks (32nd, 1369)
  • January 4: @ Minnesota Wild (9th, 1540)
  • January 6: @ Winnipeg Jets (13th, 1519)

Overall Ratings

 1       Boston Bruins                 1613 (▲1)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      1599 (▲7)
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      1594 (▼4)
 4       Dallas Stars (▲1)             1571 (▲19)
 5       Tampa Bay Lightning (▲2)      1548 (▲8)
 6 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼2)      1546 (▼19)
 6 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲2)      1546 (▲11)
 8       New York Rangers (▼2)         1542
 9       Minnesota Wild                1540 (▲8)
10       Calgary Flames (▲1)           1531 (▲5)
11       Edmonton Oilers (▲2)          1527 (▲8)
12       New York Islanders (▲2)       1521 (▲4)
13       Winnipeg Jets (▲3)            1519 (▲7)
14       New Jersey Devils (▲3)        1514 (▲4)
15       Los Angeles Kings             1513 (▼2)
16       Colorado Avalanche (▼6)       1512 (▼17)
17       Vegas Golden Knights (▼5)     1511 (▼10)
18       Buffalo Sabres (▲3)           1501 (▲2)
19       St. Louis Blues (▲1)          1497 (▼3)
20       Florida Panthers (▼2)         1496 (▼8)
21       Seattle Kraken (▼2)           1493 (▼8)
22       Detroit Red Wings             1485 (▲2)
23       Nashville Predators           1482 (▲1)
24       Ottawa Senators (▲1)          1474 (▲6)
25       Vancouver Canucks (▼1)        1468 (▼6)
26       Arizona Coyotes               1457 (▲14)
27       Philadelphia Flyers           1449 (▲11)
28       San Jose Sharks               1430 (▼4)
29       Montreal Canadiens            1409 (▼13)
30       Columbus Blue Jackets         1407 (▲2)
31       Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            1383 (▼5)
32       Chicago Blackhawks (▼1)       1369 (▼20)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           76% (▲14)
 2       New Jersey Devils (▲1)        7% (▼1)
 3       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1)      6% (▼12)
 4       Washington Capitals (▲1)      5% (▲1)
 5       New York Rangers (▼1)         4% (▼2)
 6       New York Islanders            2%
 7 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         <1%
 7 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1%

Atlantic Division

 1       Boston Bruins                 77%
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs           18% (▼2)
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning           4% (▲1)
 4 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
 4 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
 4 (tie) Florida Panthers              <1%
 4 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
 4 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%

Central Division

 1       Dallas Stars                  62% (▲20)
 2       Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            15% (▼2)
 3       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           13% (▼2)
 4       Colorado Avalanche (▼2)       7% (▼14)
 5 (tie) Nashville Predators           1% (▼1)
 5 (tie) St. Louis Blues               1% (▼1)
 7 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1%
 7 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          38% (▼4)
 2       Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        17% (▲3)
 3       Calgary Flames (▲1)           16% (▲3)
 4 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          14% (▲4)
 4 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▼2)           14% (▼5)
 6       Vancouver Canucks             1% (▼1)
 7 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 <1%
 7 (tie) San Jose Sharks               <1%

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           99% (▲1)
 2       New Jersey Devils (▲1)        75% (▲1)
 3 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1)      73% (▼14)
 3 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲2)      73% (▲9)
 5       New York Rangers (▼1)         64% (▼3)
 6       New York Islanders            50% (▲2)
 7       Philadelphia Flyers           3% (▲1)
 8       Columbus Blue Jackets         <1%

Atlantic Division

 1       Boston Bruins                 >99%
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs           98% (▲1)
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning           87% (▲8)
 4       Buffalo Sabres                29%
 5       Detroit Red Wings             26% (▲1)
 6 (tie) Florida Panthers              11% (▼8)
 6 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1)          11% (▲3)
 8       Montreal Canadiens            1% (▼3)

Central Division

 1       Dallas Stars                  98% (▲4)
 2       Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            85% (▲5)
 3       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           82% (▲6)
 4       Colorado Avalanche (▼2)       69% (▼13)
 5       St. Louis Blues               33% (▼4)
 6       Nashville Predators           29% (▼1)
 7       Arizona Coyotes               13% (▲4)
 8       Chicago Blackhawks            <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          88% (▼2)
 2       Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        74% (▲3)
 3       Calgary Flames (▲1)           72% (▲5)
 4       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          69% (▲9)
 5       Seattle Kraken (▼3)           66% (▼8)
 6       Vancouver Canucks             20% (▼6)
 7       San Jose Sharks               1% (▼1)
 8       Anaheim Ducks                 <1%

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Boston Bruins                 57% (▼3)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           22% (▲6)
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           10% (▼2)
 4       Dallas Stars (▲1)             5% (▲3)
 5       Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      2% (▲1)
 6 (tie) New Jersey Devils             1%
 6 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼2)      1% (▼2)
 6 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          1%
 6 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 1%

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Boston Bruins                 14%
 2       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      11% (▲1)
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      10% (▼1)
 4       Dallas Stars                  9% (▲2)
 5 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲1)           5%
 5 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲2)      5% (▲1)
 7 (tie) Calgary Flames                4%
 7 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲5)          4% (▲1)
 7 (tie) New York Rangers              4%
 7 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼2)      4% (▼2)
 7 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲5)      4% (▲1)
 7 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲5)            4% (▲1)
13 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼6)       3% (▼1)
13 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        3%
13 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼1)        3%
13 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼6)     3% (▼1)
17 (tie) New York Islanders (▲1)       2%
17 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▼5)           2% (▼1)
19 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           1%
19 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        1%
19 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲1)         1%
19 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲1)      1%
19 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼1)          1% (▼1)
19 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        1%
25 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 <1%
25 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1%
25 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%
25 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         <1%
25 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
25 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%
25 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1%
25 (tie) San Jose Sharks               <1%