Tag: CFL

There were lots of surprises in last week’s games, as the visiting teams won 3 of the 4 Mark’s Labour Day Weekend games, whereas the McDonald CFL Power Ratings team were expecting a clean sweep by the hosts.  As a result, there was lots of movement in the Power Rankings and Ratings this week.

The first game of the weekend was Friday night in Ottawa, where Montreal thumped Ottawa 51-29 in the highest-scoring game of the season so far.  Vernon Adams Jr. threw for four touchdowns in the victory, and there were 33 points scored in the 4th quarter!

The next game of the weekend was on Sunday, as Winnipeg visited Saskatchewan for the most highly-anticipated game of the year, as Saskatchewan was ranked #1 and Winnipeg #2.  In the battle for top spot in the West, both teams managed to disappoint in a lacklustre showing, with the Blue Bombers coming out on top 23-8.  For a Labour Day Classic, the game was anything but classic, as the top scorer for the Riders was kicker Brett Lauther, with 2 field goals and a rouge.

There were two games on Labour Day, with Hamilton hosting their own version of a Labour Day Classic.  They didn’t treat the visiting Toronto Argonauts well, as they took a 25-4 lead into the fourth quarter and cruised to a 32-19 victory.

In the final game of the weekend, the first half of the Battle of Alberta took place in Calgary, with the visiting Edmonton Elks finishing with a strong fourth quarter to defeat the Stampeders 32-20.  The game was tied 17-17 after three quarters, but Edmonton scored the last 15 points of the game.  Trevor Harris was truly the star of the game, passing for 398 yards and four touchdowns in the victory.

Three of next week’s games feature rematches, as Saskatchewan and Winnipeg, Hamilton and Toronto, and Calgary and Edmonton swap stadiums to face each other again.  British Columbia returns from their bye week to face Ottawa in the other game.

Week 5 Results

Montreal 51  at Ottawa 29
Winnipeg 23  at Saskatchewan 8
Toronto 19  at Hamilton 32
Edmonton 32  at Calgary 20

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

With Winnipeg’s win over Saskatchewan, those two teams swap positions in the McDonald CFL Power Rankings, with Winnipeg now on top.  Saskatchewan does stay in 2nd place, although Hamilton edged closer, being ranked third despite their 2-2 record.  In fact, 5 teams are at 2-2 now!  With their loss to Edmonton, Calgary has dropped down in the rankings, and now are ranked 7th, a big surprise for a team that has been strong for a number of years now.  Their 1-4 record is worst in the CFL, although we’re still giving the lowest ranking in the league to Ottawa.

Ranking	Team	Rating	Record
1 (▲1)	Winnipeg	1565 (▲14)	4-1, 1st West
2 (▼1)	Saskatchewan	1543 (▼14)	3-1, 2nd West
3	Hamilton	1535 (▲10)	2-2, 1st West
4 (▲2)	Edmonton	1499 (▲15)	2-2, T-3rd West
5 (▲3)	Montreal	1495 (▲13)	2-2, T-1st East
6 (▲1)	British Columbia	1483	2-2, T-3rd West
7 (▼3)	Calgary	1481 (▼15)	1-4, 5th West
8 (▼3)	Toronto	1478 (▼9)	2-2, T-1st East
9	Ottawa	1441 (▼13)	1-3, 4th East

Grey Cup Predictions

After defeating Saskatchewan, we now have calculated that Winnipeg has the best chance of winning the Grey Cup, at 23%.  Not far behind is Hamilton, who right now are the cream of the crop in the East.  Despite being ranked third in the CFL, Hamilton is the mostly likely team to advance out of the East, and as they are the host city this year, the hometown crowd gives them a decent chance of winning if they make it to the final.  Saskatchewan’s chances have dropped significantly in the last two weeks, from 23% to 15% currently.  We’re giving Calgary the least chance of winning, at just 2%, as they are currently sitting in last place in a strong Western division.

As far as East vs. West, we’re giving a Western team a 54% chance of winning the Grey Cup, versus last week’s 55%.

Grey Cup Ranking	Team	Rating	Win Grey Cup
1 (▲2)	Winnipeg	1565	23% (▲5)
2	Hamilton	1535	22% (▲3)
3 (▼2)	Saskatchewan	1543	15% (▼6)
4 (▲1)	Montreal	1495	11% (▲3)
5 (▼1)	Toronto	1478	9% (▼3)
6 (▲2)	Edmonton	1499	8% (▲3)
7 (▼1)	British Columbia	1483	6%
8 (▼1)	Ottawa	1441	3% (▼3)
9	Calgary	1481	2% (▼3)

Our Full Predictions

Team	Rating	Make Playoffs	Host Playoff Game	Win Division	Make Division Final	Make Grey Cup	Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg 4-1 1st in West	1565	95%	78%	54%	76%	44%	23%
Hamilton 2-2 T-1st in East	1535	86%	75%	47%	70%	40%	22%
Saskatchewan 3-1 2nd in West	1543	86%	59%	24%	58%	29%	15%
Montreal 2-2 T-1st in East	1495	76%	57%	23%	51%	24%	11%
Toronto 2-2 T-1st in East	1478	70%	48%	22%	45%	21%	9%
Edmonton 2-2 T-3rd in West	1499	64%	29%	12%	36%	16%	8%
British Columbia 2-2 T-3rd in West	1483	64%	27%	9%	32%	13%	6%
Ottawa 1-3 4th in East	1441	36%	20%	7%	20%	9%	3%
Calgary 1-4 5th in West	1481	23%	7%	1%	12%	5%	2%

Week 6 Game Predictions

Hamilton (50%) at Toronto (49%)
Saskatchewan (40%) at Winnipeg (59%)
Calgary (40%) at Edmonton (59%)
Ottawa (37%) at British Columbia (62%)

 

The big story in Week 4 was that the Edmonton – Toronto game was postponed due to a number of Elks players testing positive for COVID-19.  According to the CFL’s protocol, the league will attempt to reschedule the game; if it can’t be rescheduled, Toronto would be awarded a 1-0 win.  Luckily for the Elks, the league was able to reschedule the game into Week 16.  Unfortunately for the Elks, though, that means they’ve got 3 games in 7 days at the end of the season.

In Friday night’s game, Hamilton thumped Montreal 27-10.  It was Hamilton’s first win of the season, and was highlighted by kick returner Frankie Williams, who gained 184 yards on returns and also made an interception on defense.

In Saturday’s game, BC defeated Ottawa 24-12.  Quarterback Michael Reilly passed for 301 yards in a winning effort.

In Sunday’s final game of the week, Winnipeg won a squeaker over Calgary, 18-16.  Winnipeg kicker Marc Liegghio booted a 45 yard field goal with 37 seconds left to take the lead, and Calgary almost came back, but Rene Paredes’ last-second attempt from 52 yards fell short, giving Winnipeg the victory.  On the losing side, Calgary rookie quarterback Jake Maier completed his first 17 passes, including a perfect first half, and finished 30 for 39 and 307 yards.

As always, it’s a big set of Labour Day weekend games.  The biggest game, of course, comes Sunday as the top two teams in the league, Saskatchewan and Winnipeg, face off in the Labour Day Classic.  Another interesting game to watch will be Edmonton at Calgary on Monday, as both teams try to get their seasons on track.  The other two games are Montreal at Ottawa on Friday and Toronto at Hamilton on Monday.

Week 4 Results

Postponed: Edmonton at Toronto
Hamilton 27  at Montreal 10
British Columbia 24  at Ottawa 12
Calgary 16  at Winnipeg 18

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

Not many changes in the rankings this week.  Saskatchewan retains the top spot, although with their bye week and Winnipeg’s win, Winnipeg has closed the gap.  The top spot in the rankings will be up for grabs in their Labour Day Classic game in Regina on Sunday.  The only change in the rankings was Montreal; with their big loss to Hamilton, they’ve dropped down to 8th in the rankings, pushing Toronto, Edmonton, and B.C. up one spot each.  However, there are only 5 rating points separating teams 5 through 8, so there’s really no clear better team in that group.

It’s interesting to note that only three teams have ratings above the baseline of 1500; are Saskatchewan and Winnipeg that much better than the rest of the league?  Possibly.

Ranking	Team	Rating	Record
1	Saskatchewan	1557	3-0, 1st West
2	Winnipeg	1551 (▲10)	3-1, 2nd West
3	Hamilton	1525 (▲14)	1-2, T-2nd East
4	Calgary	1496 (▼9)	1-2, T-3rd West
5 (▲1)	Toronto	1487	2-1, 1st East
6 (▲1)	Edmonton	1484	1-2, 4th West
7 (▲1)	British Columbia	1483 (▲14)	2-2, 3rd West
8 (▼3)	Montreal	1482 (▼14)	1-2, T-2nd East
9	Ottawa	1454 (▼14)	1-2, T-2nd East

Grey Cup Predictions

Saskatchewan remains our favourite to win the Grey Cup, although their chances dropped slightly to 21%.  Hamilton is now the number-2 favourite, jumping 6 percentage points to a 19% chance of winning it all.  Winnipeg also closed the gap on Saskatchewan, and now have an 18% chance of winning.  Perhaps most surprising is Calgary, who are ranked 4th in the McDonald CFL Power Ratings, but with their 1-3 record in the strong West division, only have a 5% chance of winning the Grey Cup.  We’re still giving a 55% chance of a Western division team winning the league championship, versus a 45% chance of an Eastern team, no change from the last two weeks.

Grey Cup Ranking	Team	Rating	Win Grey Cup
1	Saskatchewan	1557	21% (▼2)
2 (▲1)	Hamilton	1525	19% (▲6)
3 (▼1)	Winnipeg	1551	18% (▲2)
4 (▲1)	Toronto	1487	12% (▲1)
5 (▼1)	Montreal	1482	8% (▼4)
6 (▲3)	British Columbia	1483	6% (▲1)
7 (▼1)	Ottawa	1454	6% (▼2)
8	Edmonton	1484	5% (▼1)
9 (▼2)	Calgary	1496	5% (▼2)

Our Full Predictions

Team	Rating	Make Playoffs	Host Playoff Game	Win Division	Make Division Final	Make Grey Cup	Win Grey Cup
Saskatchewan 3-0 1st in West	1557	92%	73%	46%	71%	39%	21%
Hamilton 1-2 T-2nd in East	1525	78%	63%	36%	60%	34%	19%
Winnipeg 3-1 2nd in West	1551	89%	65%	34%	64%	34%	18%
Toronto 2-1 1st in East	1487	77%	60%	34%	55%	28%	12%
Montreal 1-2 T-2nd in East	1482	60%	41%	16%	39%	18%	8%
British Columbia 2-2 3rd in West	1483	65%	28%	9%	33%	13%	6%
Ottawa 1-2 T-2nd in East	1454	53%	36%	14%	32%	14%	6%
Edmonton 1-2 4th in West	1484	47%	19%	6%	25%	11%	5%
Calgary 1-3 5th in West	1496	39%	14%	4%	21%	9%	5%

Week 4 Game Predictions

Montreal (47%) at Ottawa (52%)
Winnipeg (42%) at Saskatchewan (57%)
Toronto (38%) at Hamilton (61%)
Edmonton (41%) at Calgary (58%)

 

Teams continue to gain their footing as Week 3 has completed in the CFL.  In the Thursday night game, Trevor Harris threw for 296 yards and James Wilder Jr. rushed for 127 yards as the Edmonton Elks spoiled the BC Lions home opener, winning 21-16.

On Friday night, Calgary defeated Montreal 28-22 at home for their first win of the season.  Jake Maier made his CFL debut as the starting quarterback for Calgary, replacing the injured Bo Levi Mitchell, and passed for 304 yards and a touchdown for his first career win.  Montreal almost came back to win it, but Calgary managed to stop them at the goal line as time ran out on the clock.

In the early game on Saturday, top-ranked Winnipeg travelled to Toronto for the first game to be held in the East this year.  Toronto surprised the Blue Bombers with a 30-23 win for the hometown team.  Nick Arbuckle, the Toronto quarterback, completed 23 of 32 passes for 310 yards to pick up the win for the Argos.

And in Saturday’s late game, Saskatchewan never trailed as they dominated Ottawa 23-10.  Cody Fajardo passed for 321 yards, but it was the Rider defense that starred.  Saskatchewan is now the only undefeated team in the CFL, and the win has moved them into the top spot in the McDonald CFL Power Rankings.

The big story next week is the Edmonton game in Toronto on Thursday night.  It’s been postponed due to a number of Elks players testing positive for COVID-19 (14 at press time).  As per the CFL’s COVID protocol, the game has been postponed, but a new date for the game has not been announced yet.  If the CFL can’t find a date to play the game, Toronto will be awarded a 1-0 win.  Our McDonald CFL Power Ratings team was giving Toronto a 57% chance of winning the game.

In Friday night’s game, Hamilton visits Montreal.  Although we’ve got Hamilton rated higher than Montreal, we’re giving Montreal a slight edge to win this game due to home field advantage, with a 54% chance of winning.  Hamilton is looking for their first win of the season, while if Montreal wins, they’ll move into a tie for first place in the East with Toronto.

Saturday’s early game has BC travelling to Ottawa.  These teams are ranked at the bottom of our Power Ratings, so they’re both looking for a critical victory to get their season on track.  We’re giving Ottawa the edge here, with a 56% chance of winning the game.

In the final game of the weekend on Saturday, Calgary travels to Winnipeg.  Winnipeg is looking to bounce back after their loss to Ottawa last week, while Calgary is looking for their second straight victory.  The McDonald CFL Power Rating boys are predicting a Winnipeg win, with a 61% chance of that happening.  With a win, Winnipeg can retake the top ranking over the idle Saskatchewan Roughriders.

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

We’ve got a new top-ranked team this week.  With Saskatchewan’s win over Ottawa, and Winnipeg’s loss to Toronto, Saskatchewan has now taken over top spot in the McDonald CFL Power Rankings, with Winnipeg dropping to second.  Both teams are rated much stronger than the rest of the league.  Other moves up include Toronto, moving up from 8th to 6th, and Edmonton, from 9th to 7th, while drop downs include British Columbia (6th to 8th) and Ottawa (7th to 9th).  Ottawa is now our lowest ranked team.

Ranking	Team	Rating	Record
1 (▲1)	Saskatchewan	1557 (▲8)	3-0, 1st West
2 (▼1)	Winnipeg	1541 (▼13)	2-1, 2nd West
3	Hamilton	1511	0-2, 4th East
4 (▲1)	Calgary	1505 (▲11)	1-2, T-3rd West
5 (▼1)	Montreal	1496 (▼11)	1-1, T-2nd East
6 (▲2)	Toronto	1487 (▲14)	2-1, 1st East
7 (▲2)	Edmonton	1484 (▲15)	1-2, T-3rd West
8 (▼2)	British Columbia	1469 (▼15)	1-2, T-3rd West
9 (▼2)	Ottawa	1468 (▼8)	1-1, T-2nd East

Grey Cup Predictions

Saskatchewan is now our favourite to win the Grey Cup, at a whopping 23% chance.  The next closest team is Winnipeg, who we’re giving a 16% chance.  The top Eastern team is Hamilton with a 13% chance, followed closely by Montreal at 12% and Toronto at 11%.  We’re giving a 55% chance of a Western division team winning the league championship, versus a 45% chance of an Eastern team, no change from last week.

Grey Cup Ranking	Team	Rating	Win Grey Cup
1	Saskatchewan	1557	23% (▲4)
2	Winnipeg	1541	16% (▼4)
3	Hamilton	1511	13%
4	Montreal	1496	12% (▼2)
5	Toronto	1487	11% (▲3)
6	Ottawa	1468	8% (▼2)
7	Calgary	1505	7% (▲2)
8	Edmonton	1484	6% (▲2)
9	British Columbia	1469	5% (▼2)

Our Full Predictions

Team	Rating	Make Playoffs	Host Playoff Game	Win Division	Make Division Final	Make Grey Cup	Win Grey Cup
Saskatchewan 3-0 1st in West	1557	92%	76%	50%	73%	41%	23%
Winnipeg 2-1 2nd in West	1541	82%	58%	28%	57%	29%	16%
Hamilton 0-2 4th in East	1511	63%	43%	20%	44%	23%	13%
Montreal 1-1 T-2nd in East	1496	72%	53%	27%	50%	26%	12%
Toronto 2-1 1st in East	1487	77%	58%	30%	53%	26%	11%
Ottawa 1-1 T-2nd in East	1468	66%	46%	22%	43%	20%	8%
Calgary 1-2 T-3rd in West	1505	51%	24%	9%	30%	14%	7%
Edmonton 1-2 T-3rd in West	1484	48%	21%	7%	26%	11%	6%
British Columbia 1-2 T-3rd in West	1469	49%	20%	6%	25%	10%	5%

Week 4 Game Predictions

Edmonton (42%) at Toronto (57%) — POSTPONED DUE TO COVID-19
Hamilton (45%) at Montreal (54%)
British Columbia (43%) at Ottawa (56%)
Calgary (38%) at Winnipeg (61%)

 

In Week 2, defense seemed to be the key in the CFL.  Opening the week on Thursday Night Football, British Columbia defeated host Calgary 15-9.  BC picked off Calgary quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell four times for the first time in his career.

Friday night’s game featured Toronto visiting top-ranked Winnipeg.  Both Winnipeg’s offense and defense both looked strong, as they took an early lead and never looked back, winning 20-7.

In Saturday’s early game, Montreal travelled to Edmonton to open their season.  A strong performance by them, and a weak performance by Edmonton, resulted in a 30-13 win for Montreal.

Saturday’s late game involved 2nd-ranked Saskatchewan playing host to 3rd-ranked Hamilton.  Despite being penalized 20 times for 187 yards, and being held rougeless, the Roughriders dominated and won 30-8.

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

Winnipeg and Saskatchewan remain the top 2 teams this week, and despite being 0-2, Hamilton has retained 3rd place in the McDonald CFL Power Rankings.  British Columbia made a big move, jumping 3 spots after their win over Calgary.  Meanwhile, Edmonton dropped down to last place in the rankings after losing to Montreal.

Ranking	Team	Rating	Record
1	Winnipeg	1554 (▲9)	2-0, T-1st West
2	Saskatchewan	1549 (▲10)	2-0, T-1st West
3	Hamilton	1511 (▼10)	0-2, 4th East
4 (▲1)	Montreal	1507 (▲14)	1-0, T-1st East
5 (▼1)	Calgary	1494 (▼16)	0-2, T-4th West
6 (▲3)	British Columbia	1484 (▲16)	1-1, 3rd West
7 (▲1)	Ottawa	1476	1-0, T-1st East
8	Toronto	1473 (▼8)	1-1, 3rd East
9 (▼3)	Edmonton	1469 (▼14)	0-2, T-4th West

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg, at 20%, and Saskatchewan, at 19%, are the most likely teams to win the Grey Cup.  The top Eastern team is Montreal with a 14% chance, followed closely by Hamilton at 13%.  We’re giving a 55% chance of a Western division team winning the league championship, versus a 45% chance of an Eastern team.

Grey Cup Ranking	Team	Rating	Win Grey Cup
1	Winnipeg	1554	20% (▲2)
2	Saskatchewan	1539	19% (▲3)
3 (▲1)	Montreal	1507	14% (▲3)
4 (▼1)	Hamilton	1511	13% (▼3)
5 (▲1)	Ottawa	1476	10%
6 (▼1)	Toronto	1473	8% (▼2)
7 (▲2)	British Columbia	1484	7% (▲2)
8 (▼1)	Calgary	1494	5% (▼4)
9 (▼1)	Edmonton	1469	4% (▼2)

Our Full Predictions

Team	Rating	Make Playoffs	Host Playoff Game	Win Division	Make Division Final	Make Grey Cup	Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg 2-0 T-1st in West	1554	90%	69%	41%	68%	37%	20%
Saskatchewan 2-0 T-1st in West	1549	89%	68%	38%	65%	34%	19%
Montreal 1-0 T-1st in East	1507	79%	61%	36%	58%	31%	14%
Hamilton 0-2 4th in East	1511	64%	44%	19%	44%	23%	13%
Ottawa 1-0 T-1st in East	1476	72%	52%	27%	48%	23%	10%
Toronto 1-1 3rd in East	1473	64%	43%	18%	40%	19%	8%
British Columbia 1-1 3rd in West	1484	66%	33%	12%	35%	14%	7%
Calgary 0-2 T-4th in West	1494	41%	17%	6%	23%	10%	5%
Edmonton 0-2 T-4th in West	1469	34%	13%	4%	18%	7%	4%

Week 3 Game Predictions

Edmonton (41%) at British Columbia (58%)
Montreal (45%) at Calgary (54%)
Winnipeg (53%) at Toronto (46%)
Ottawa (33%) at Saskatchewan (66%)

 

Ah, the CFL is back!  Week 1 provided a number of interesting games, and we see our ratings start to move.  We expect that after about 6 games, they’ll be pretty accurate, but for now, there’s still uncertainty built in.  That will continue to shake out over the next few weeks.

Thursday’s opening game featured a rematch of the 2019 Grey Cup (there was no Grey Cup in 2020, nor season, due to the COVID-19 pandemic), with Hamilton visiting Winnipeg.  Hamilton scored a touchdown on their first possession, but didn’t score again all game, as Winnipeg prevailed 19-6.

In the Friday night game, Saskatchewan hosted British Columbia.  Saskatchewan scored touchdowns on their first 3 possessions to take a 21-0 lead, and led by as much as 31-0 in the first half.  But the second half was a completely different game, with BC outscoring the Riders 29-2 the rest of the way, but Saskatchewan held on to win 33-29.  The star of the game had to be Saskatchewan punter Jon Ryan, a native of Regina and Super Bowl winner with the Seattle Seahawks, who scored two rouges (arguably the most exciting play in Canadian football!) on punts of 67 and 77 yards!  Also of note, BC placekicker Tarkeru Yamasaki became the first Japanese-born player to score a point in the CFL.  Interestingly enough, BC’s other kicker, punter Jake Ford, was born in Australia and played Aussie Rules football and rugby growing up.

There were two games on Saturday.  In the early game, Toronto stunned Calgary 23-20.  The Argos scored 11 points in the fourth quarter to come back, and picked off a Stampeder pass with 31 seconds left in the game to quench any hope of a Calgary comeback.

In Saturday’s nightcap, the newly-named Edmonton Elks hosted Ottawa.  In a tight defensive game, Ottawa scored 10 points in the fourth quarter to win 16-12.  On the final play of the game, the Elks scrimmaged from Ottawa’s 17-yard line and completed a pass for 16 yards, being stopped one yard short of the victory.

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

Winnipeg retains their number 1 ranking, while Saskatchewan has moved past Hamilton for 2nd spot.  British Columbia dropped two spots to be the lowest ranked team this week.

Ranking	Team	Rating	Record
1	Winnipeg	1545 (▲11)	1-0, T-1st West
2 (▲1)	Saskatchewan	1539 (▲9)	1-0, T-1st West
3 (▼1)	Hamilton	1521 (▼11)	0-1, 4th East
4	Calgary	1510 (▼16)	0-1, T-3rd West
5 (▲1)	Montreal	1493	0-0, 3rd East
6 (▼1)	Edmonton	1483 (▼15)	0-1, T-3rd West
7 (▲1)	Toronto	1481 (▲17)	1-0, T-1st East
8 (▲1)	Ottawa	1476 (▲16)	1-0, T-1st East
9 (▼2)	British Columbia	1468 (▼9)	0-1, T-3rd West

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg is now the most likely team to win the Grey Cup, with an 18% chance.  We’re giving a 54% chance of a Western division team winning the league championship, versus a 46% chance of an Eastern team.

Grey Cup Ranking	Team	Rating	Win Grey Cup
1 (▲3)	Winnipeg	1545	18% (▲9)
2 (▲1)	Saskatchewan	1539	16% (▲6)
3 (▼2)	Hamilton	1521	16% (▼9)
4 (▼2)	Montreal	1493	11% (▼2)
5 (▲3)	Toronto	1481	10% (▲1)
6	Ottawa	1476	10% (▲1)
7 (▼2)	Calgary	1510	9%
8 (▼1)	Edmonton	1483	6% (▼3)
9	British Columbia	1468	5% (▼3)

Our Full Predictions

Team	Rating	Make Playoffs	Host Playoff Game	Win Division	Make Division Final	Make Grey Cup	Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg (1-0) T-1st West	1545	84%	63%	37%	62%	33%	18%
Saskatchewan (1-0) T-1st in West	1539	81%	58%	32%	58%	30%	16%
Hamilton (0-1) 4th in East	1521	71%	52%	26%	51%	28%	16%
Montreal (0-0) 3rd in East	1493	66%	47%	23%	45%	23%	11%
Toronto (1-0) T-1st in East	1481	71%	50%	25%	47%	23%	10%
Ottawa (1-0) T-1st in East	1476	72%	52%	26%	48%	23%	10%
Calgary (0-1) T-3rd in West	1510	59%	33%	14%	36%	17%	9%
Edmonton (0-1) T-3rd in West	1483	48%	24%	9%	27%	12%	6%
British Columbia (0-1) T-3rd in West	1468	48%	22%	8%	25%	10%	5%

Week 2 Game Predictions

British Columbia (37%) at Calgary (62%)
Toronto (34%) at Winnipeg (65%)
Montreal (44%) at Edmonton (55%)
Hamilton (40%) at Saskatchewan (59%)

The McDonald Power Ratings team is back after a short hiatus.  We took a break after the NHL playoffs concluded, but now we’re back as the CFL season is about to start.  Here’s a brief look at our CFL predictions for this year.

Initial Ratings

Let’s start with a warning about our doubts with our initial ratings.  There was no CFL season last year, there have been lots of personnel changes in the league, and this season’s schedule has been shortened to 14 games from 18, so we don’t have a lot of confidence in our initial predictions.  As a result, we have adjusted our ratings to account for this uncertainty.  We always adjust our initial ratings to decrease the ratings for the better than average teams and increase the ratings for the worse than average teams, but we’ve adjusted by a larger amount than normal this year.  As the first few games are played, the ratings will be adjusted appropriately, but for now, here’s our initial ratings to give an indication of how we think the season will go.

Ranking	Team	Rating	2019 Record	2019 Playoffs
1	Winnipeg	1534	11-7, 3rd West	Won Grey Cup
2	Hamilton	1532	15-3, 1st East	Lost Grey Cup
3	Saskatchewan	1530	13-5, 1st West	Lost West Final
4	Calgary	1526	12-6, 2nd West	Lost West Semi
5	Edmonton	1498	8-10, 4th West	Lost East Final
6	Montreal	1493	10-8, 2nd East	Lost East Semi
7	British Columbia	1477	5-13, 5th West	—
8	Toronto	1464	4-14, 3rd East	—
9	Ottawa	1460	3-15, 4th East	—

Grey Cup Predictions

But how about the chances of winning the Grey Cup?  There’s a surprise here!

Grey Cup Ranking	Team	Rating	Win Grey Cup
1	Hamilton	1532	25%
2	Montreal	1493	13%
3	Saskatchewan	1530	10%
4	Winnipeg	1534	9%
5	Calgary	1526	9%
6	Ottawa	1460	9%
7	Edmonton	1498	9%
8	Toronto	1464	9%
9	British Columbia	1477	8%

Clearly, it’s an advantage to play in the Eastern division!  Last year, Hamilton had the best regular season record in the league, and made it all the way to the Grey Cup.  By playing in the weak Eastern division, and 3 of the 4 teams in that division making the playoffs (barring a cross-over, of course), they’ve got a pretty good chance of advancing to the Grey Cup.  And if you make it there, you’ve got roughly a 50-50 chance of winning.  But, the Grey Cup is being held in Hamilton this year, so that would give them the home field advantage, so we’re giving them a 25% chance of winning it all!

Our Full Predictions

Team	Rating	Make Playoffs	Host Playoff Game	Win Division	Make Division Final	Make Grey Cup	Win Grey Cup
Hamilton	1532	80%	67%	40%	53%	40%	25%
Montreal	1493	69%	54%	26%	42%	27%	13%
Saskatchewan	1530	72%	44%	23%	50%	20%	10%
Winnipeg	1534	74%	48%	25%	52%	20%	9%
Calgary	1526	72%	45%	24%	51%	19%	9%
Ottawa	1460	58%	41%	18%	35%	19%	9%
Edmonton	1498	62%	34%	16%	44%	19%	9%
Toronto	1464	56%	39%	17%	34%	18%	9%
British Columbia	1477	55%	28%	12%	40%	19%	8%

Week 1 Game Predictions

Hamilton (43%) at Winnipeg (56%)
British Columbia (36%) at Saskatchewan (63%)
Toronto (34%) at Calgary (65%)
Ottawa (38%) at Edmonton (61%)