The CFL continued into Week 8 of the schedule, highlighted by a Saturday showdown between the top two teams in the league.

On Thursday, 3rd-place Hamilton hosted 2nd-place Montreal, in what could be a battle for the last playoff spot in the East, as it’s looking increasingly likely that a team from the West will cross-over to take the 3rd-place Eastern playoff spot.  Maybe the boys in the back room should calculate the odds of that!  Anyways, Hamilton beat Montreal 24-17, and the teams are now tied in 2nd at 2-5.  With Montreal moving down the field on the final drive and just enough time left for one play, quarterback Trevor Harris was removed from the game by the injury spotters after a hit that resulted in a roughness penalty, and backup QB Dominique Davis threw an interception to end the game.

In the Friday night game, British Columbia headed to Saskatchewan, with two teams heading in opposite directions.  Despite holding a 17-4 lead in the second quarter, Saskatchewan lost to BC 32-17.  Lions QB Nathan Rourke had an astounding game, completing 27 of his 33 passes for 336 yards and two touchdowns and rushing for a third TD.  The BC defense also recorded four sacks on Rider QB Cody Fajardo, who went 18 for 27 and only 168 yards.

The most anticipated game of the weekend had undefeated Winnipeg travelling to Calgary to face the second-place Stampeders.  In a game that did not disappoint, Winnipeg beat Calgary 35-28.  Calgary had held the lead 28-25 with four and a half minutes left in the game, but Winnipeg came through.  Winnipeg quarterback Zach Collaros went 22 for 33 for 270 yards and four touchdowns.  Bombers running back Brady Oliveira broke the 100 yard rushing mark, picking up 110 yards on 15 carries.

And in the least anticipated game of the weekend, winless Ottawa headed to Toronto to face the first-place Argonauts.  In a surprise, Ottawa defeated Toronto 23-13.  Ottawa QB Caleb Evans completed 24 of 29 passes for 286 yards and two touchdowns, while his Toronto counterpart, McLeod Bethel-Thompson went 24 of 40 for 340 yards and one touchdown.  Toronto failed to score in the second half of the game.

Week 8 Results

Montreal 17  at Hamilton 24
British Columbia 32  at Saskatchewan 17
Winnipeg 35  at Calgary 28
Ottawa 23  at Toronto 13

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

Winnipeg continues to be the top ranked team by far, with a huge 1630 McDonald CFL Power Ratings ratings points, with second-ranked Calgary sitting 86 points behind at 1544.  British Columbia moved up the rankings with their win over Saskatchewan, swapping places with the Riders who now dropped down to fourth.  Toronto is the top-ranked Eastern team in fifth place, as they are the only Eastern team above the 1500 average rating, albeit only at 1506.  Despite their surprising win over Toronto this week, Ottawa remains mired at the bottom of the rankings, but they have moved above the 1400 point stink line, now sitting at 1411 points.

Ranking	Team	Rating	Record
1	Winnipeg	1630 (▲12)	8-0, 1st West
2	Calgary	1544 (▼12)	4-2, T-3rd West
3 (▲2)	British Columbia	1521 (▲15)	5-1, 2nd West
4 (▼1)	Saskatchewan	1511 (▼15)	4-4, T-3rd West
5 (▼1)	Toronto	1506 (▼18)	3-3, 1st East
6 (▲1)	Hamilton	1482 (▲11)	2-5, T-2nd East
7 (▼1)	Montreal	1467 (▼11)	2-5, T-2nd East
8	Edmonton	1447	2-5, 5th West
9	Ottawa	1411 (▲19)	1-6, 4th East

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg’s odds of winning the Grey Cup went up significantly this week after their win over 2nd-ranked Calgary, jumping 5 percentage points to 40%!  Toronto, being the top team in the East, has been calculated to have the 2nd best chance of winning at 16%, a drop of 3% from last week.  The two last-place teams, Ottawa and Edmonton, both saw their chances of winning it all doubling, from 1% all the way up to 2%!  Saskatchewan, despite hosting the Grey Cup this year, have now seen their chances of winning it drop to 7%.

Overall, there’s a 68% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, up 1% from last week’s report.

Grey Cup Ranking	Team	Rating	Win Grey Cup
1	Winnipeg	1630	40% (▲5)
2	Toronto	1506	16% (▼3)
3	Calgary	1544	11% (▼3)
4 (▲2)	British Columbia	1521	9% (▲2)
5 (▲2)	Hamilton	1482	8% (▲3)
6 (▼2)	Saskatchewan	1511	7% (▼2)
7 (▼2)	Montreal	1467	6% (▼2)
T-8	Ottawa	1411	2% (▲1)
T-8	Edmonton	1447	2% (▲1)

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.

Team	Rating	Make Playoffs	Host Playoff Game	Win Division	Make Division Final	Make Grey Cup	Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg 8-0, 1st in West	1630	>99%	98%	87%	95%	62%	40%
Toronto 3-3, 1st in East	1506	84%	80%	58%	72%	41%	16%
Calgary 4-2, T-3rd in West	1544	93%	45%	4%	50%	19%	11%
British Columbia 5-1, 2nd in West	1521	94%	46%	8%	48%	17%	9%
Hamilton 2-5, T-2nd in East	1482	56%	51%	21%	41%	21%	8%
Saskatchewan 4-4, T-3rd in West	1511	69%	10%	1%	33%	13%	7%
Montreal 2-5, T-2nd in East	1467	57%	50%	16%	38%	18%	6%
Ottawa 1-6, 4th in East	1411	22%	18%	5%	13%	6%	2%
Edmonton 2-5, 5th in West	1447	26%	1%	<1%	11%	4%	2%

Week 9 Game Predictions

Thursday: Winnipeg (65%) at Montreal (34%)
Friday: Calgary (61%) at Ottawa (38%)
Saturday: Hamilton (40%) at Toronto (59%)
Saturday: Edmonton (33%) at British Columbia (66%)

Week 7 of the CFL regular season saw Winnipeg expand its dominance, Ottawa expand its ineptitude, and Saskatchewan dropping like a rock.

On Thursday night, 1-4 Montreal travelled to Ottawa to face the winless RedBlacks.  In a topsy-turvy game, Montreal beat Ottawa 40-33.  Ottawa led 8-0 after the first quarter, Montreal led 18-14 at the half, Ottawa led after 3 quarters 26-25, but Montreal took the lead with 15 4th quarter points and took the victory when Ottawa dropped a pass in the endzone on their final drive.  Quarterback Trevor Harris led Montreal, completing 25 of 31 passes for 341 yards and two touchdowns, and running back Dominique Davis scored three touchdowns on the ground.

In the second game of the Thursday night doubleheader, struggling Hamilton visited up-and-coming British Columbia.  In a low scoring game, BC defeated Hamilton 17-12.  BC QB Nathan Rourke completed 22 of 30 passes for 250 yards and two touchdowns, and receiver Lucky Whitehead caught 8 of those passes for 111 yards and a touchdown.  Neither team scored in the fourth quarter.

Friday night’s game saw undefeated Winnipeg face last-in-the-West Edmonton.  In an unsurprising result, Winnipeg beat Edmonton 24-10.  However, Edmonton quarterback Taylor Cornelius was the outstanding QB, completing 25 of his 42 passes for 270 yards but one interception, while Winnipeg QB, possibly the best quarterback in the CFL this year, only went 7 for 16 for 188 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions.  Cornelius’ game wasn’t helped by the fact that he was sacked five times.  Winnipeg receiver Dalton Schoen led all receivers with 146 receiving yards on just four receptions, one of which was an 81 yard touchdown.

The final game of the weekend was on Sunday, pushed back a day because 10 Rider players tested positive for COVID, including starting quarterback Cody Fajardo and backup QB Mason Fine.  As a result, third-stringer Jacob Dolegala got the call.  Although the Riders hoped to avenge last week’s loss to the Argos, it was not to be, as Toronto defeated Saskatchewan 31-21.  Toronto running back Andrew Harris rushed for 143 yards, giving him over 10,000 yards for his career, and quarterback McLeod Bethel-Thompson passed for 30 for 38 for 336 yards and two touchdowns.  Argo receiver Kurleigh Gittens Jr. caught 8 passes for 152 yards and a touchdown.  In his debut, Rider QB Dolegala was disappointing, going 13 for 28 for 131 yards, a touchdown, and an interception.  He did show signs of brilliance at times, but not enough.  The Rider highlight of the game was a missed 61 yard field goal attempt by the Argos, which Mario Alford returned 112 yards for a touchdown!

Week 7 Results

Montreal 40  at Ottawa 33
Hamilton 12  at British Columbia 17
Winnipeg 24  at Edmonton 10
Toronto 31  at Saskatchewan 21

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

There was very little change in the rankings this week.  Winnipeg continues to sit at the top with a league-best 7-0 record, and the top rating of 1618.  Calgary is next, far back with 1556 rating points, with Saskatchewan still in third, but at 1526, a drop of 28 points from two weeks ago.  Toronto is the top-ranked Eastern team, fourth ranked overall, just 2 rating points behind Saskatchewan.  With Montreal’s win over Ottawa and Hamilton’s loss to BC, Montreal and Hamilton swapped 6th and 7th places in our rankings.  Ottawa’s rating has dropped to 1392, making them by far the lowest ranked team (Edmonton is 8th at 1447), and they now sit 8 points below the “stink line.”

Ranking	Team	Rating	Record
1	Winnipeg	1618 (▲9)	7-0, 1st West
2	Calgary	1556	4-1, T-2nd West
3	Saskatchewan	1526 (▼15)	4-3, T-2nd West
4	Toronto	1524 (▲16)	3-2, 1st East
5	British Columbia	1506 (▲10)	4-1, T-2nd West
6 (▲1)	Montreal	1478 (▲12)	2-4, 2nd East
7 (▼1)	Hamilton	1471 (▼10)	1-5, 3rd East
8	Edmonton	1447 (▼9)	2-5, 5th West
9	Ottawa	1392 (▼12)	0-6, 4th East

Grey Cup Predictions

Undefeated Winnipeg remains the team to beat, with the McDonald CFL Power Ratings team giving them a 35% chance of winning the Grey Cup, up 3 percentage points from last week.  Toronto has the second best chance of winning, with a 19% chance.  Overall, there’s a 67% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, down 1% from last week’s report.

Grey Cup Ranking	Team	Rating	Win Grey Cup
1	Winnipeg	1618	35%(▲3)
2	Toronto	1524	19% (▲3)
3	Calgary	1556	14% (▼1)
4	Saskatchewan	1526	9% (▼4)
5 (▲1)	Montreal	1478	8% (▲1)
6 (▲1)	British Columbia	1506	7% (▲1)
7 (▼2)	Hamilton	1471	5% (▼3)
T-8	Edmonton	1447	1%
T-8	Ottawa	1392	1%

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.

Team	Rating	Make Playoffs	Host Playoff Game	Win Division	Make Division Final	Make Grey Cup	Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg 7-0, 1st in West	1618	>99%	93%	75%	89%	56%	35%
Toronto 3-2, 1st in East	1524	92%	90%	69%	82%	48%	19%
Calgary 4-1, T-2nd in West	1556	95%	57%	15%	58%	25%	14%
Saskatchewan 4-3, T-2nd in West	1526	81%	20%	4%	40%	16%	9%
Montreal 2-4, 2nd in East	1478	70%	65%	18%	47%	21%	8%
British Columbia 4-1, T-2nd in West	1506	86%	29%	6%	41%	15%	7%
Hamilton 1-5, 3rd in East	1471	41%	36%	10%	27%	13%	5%
Edmonton 2-5, 5th in West	1447	24%	1%	<1%	10%	4%	1%
Ottawa 0-6, 4th in East	1392	11%	9%	2%	6%	2%	1%

Week 8 Game Predictions

Thursday: Montreal (44%) at Hamilton (55%)
Friday: British Columbia (40%) at Saskatchewan (59%)
Saturday: Winnipeg (51%) at Calgary (48%)
Sunday: Ottawa (26%) at Toronto (73%)

In a rare weekend of football, two Eastern Division teams won games, giving them 4 in the first 6 weeks of the season.

In the Thursday Night Football game, Edmonton surprised Montreal 32-31.  Montreal led 31-12 late in the 3rd quarter, but three pass interference calls against Montreal defensive back Wesley Sutton turned the tide, and Edmonton came away with the win.  The first pass interference call against Sutton came in the endzone, resulting in a 20 yard penalty and Edmonton ended up with a touchdown but no convert.  The second was a 38 yard penalty, again leading up to an Elks touchdown, this time with the convert.  The third penalty was for 50 yards, once again leading to an Edmonton TD.  So, one player, 108 yards in penalties, resulting in 20 points!  That third one gave Edmonton the 32-31 lead, and they held it for the victory.

Friday night’s game was a battle of the two top-ranked McDonald CFL Power Ratings teams, as undefeated Calgary headed to Winnipeg to face the undefeated defending Grey Cup champion Winnipeg Blue Bombers.  In a close game, Winnipeg held on to defeat Calgary 26-19.  In the final minute, trailing 26-19, Calgary QB Bo Levi Mitchell passed to receiver Kamar Jorden in the end zone.  Jorden appeared to make an incredible catch, but as he hit the ground, the ball bounced out of his hands and Winnipeg DB Demerio Houston made a shoestring interception to shut down Calgary’s final drive.  Winnipeg quarterback Zach Collaros completed 27 of his 38 passes for 315 yards, with Greg Ellingson catching 11 of those passes for 152 yards.  For the Stampeders, running back Ka’Deem Carey rushed for 110 yards on only 12 carries.

There were two games on Saturday, with the first being Touchdown Atlantic, with Saskatchewan and Toronto facing each other in Wolfville, Nova Scotia, home of the Acadia University Axemen.  In an upset, Toronto beat Saskatchewan 30-24.  With the Riders leading 24-22 and trying to move the ball downfield to run out the clock, quarterback Cody Fajardo threw an interception that Argo linebacker Wynton McManis ran back for a 49 yard pick-six.  Toronto followed it up with a two point convert to lead 30-24, and as Saskatchewan was making their final drive, Fajardo threw another interception and the Argonauts came away with the victory.

The last game of the weekend saw the Ottawa RedBlacks visit the Hamilton Tiger-Cats in a battle of two 0-4 teams, tied for the last playoff spot in the East.  Yes, really.  In a game that I had absolutely no interest in watching, Hamilton defeated Ottawa 25-23.  Hamilton quarterback Dane Evans passed for 342 yards and two touchdowns, one of which gave the Ti-Cats the lead with 34 seconds left.  Ottawa had a final chance to win it with a 54 yard field goal as time ran out, but the kick came up short and Hamilton had their first victory of the season.

Week 6 Results

Edmonton 32  at Montreal 31
Calgary 19  at Winnipeg 26
Saskatchewan 24  at Toronto 30
Ottawa 23  at Hamilton 25

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

There wasn’t much changes in our power rankings.  Winnipeg, Calgary, and Saskatchewan remain at the top of the rankings.  With Toronto’s surprising win over Saskatchewan, the Argos swapped places with British Columbia, with the Lions dropping to 5th.  Hamilton’s win over Ottawa combined with Montreal’s unexpected loss to Edmonton resulted Hamilton and Montreal swapping places as well, with Hamilton now ranked 6th and Montreal 7th.  Ottawa remains mired at the bottom of our rankins with their 0-5 record.

Ranking	Team	Rating	Record
1	Winnipeg	1609 (▲10)	6-0, 1st West
2	Calgary	1556 (▼9)	4-1, T-2nd West
3	Saskatchewan	1541 (▼13)	4-2, T-2nd West
4 (▲1)	Toronto	1508 (▲13)	2-2, 1st East
5 (▼1)	British Columbia	1496	3-1, 4th West
6 (▲1)	Hamilton	1481 (▲9)	1-4, T-2nd East
7 (▼1)	Montreal	1466 (▼16)	1-4, T-2nd East
8	Edmonton	1456 (▲16)	2-4, 5th West
9	Ottawa	1404 (▼9)	0-5, 4th East

Grey Cup Predictions

We made some tweaks to our mathematical model, and that resulted in larger than expected changes in Grey Cup winning probabilities.  Winnipeg remains the favourite with a 32% chance of winning, twice the probability of 2nd most-likely Toronto.  It must be nice to be an Eastern team, as your chances of making the Grey Cup are pretty good!  Calgary is 3rd most likely at 15%, followed by Saskatchewan at 13%.  Least likely to win remains Edmonton, now tied with Ottawa for last place with a 2% win probability.

Overall, there’s a 68% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, up 1% from last week’s report.

Grey Cup Ranking	Team	Rating	Win Grey Cup
1	Winnipeg	1609	32% (▼1)
2 (▲3)	Toronto	1508	16% (▲6)
3 (▼1)	Calgary	1556	15% (▼4)
4 (▼1)	Saskatchewan	1541	13% (▲1)
5 (▲1)	Hamilton	1481	8%
6 (▼2)	Montreal	1466	7% (▼4)
7 (▲1)	British Columbia	1496	6% (▲3)
T-8 (▼1)	Ottawa	1404	2% (▼3)
T-8 (▲1)	Edmonton	1456	2% (▲2)

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.

Team	Rating	Make Playoffs	Host Playoff Game	Win Division	Make Division Final	Make Grey Cup	Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg 6-0, 1st in West	1609	99%	88%	66%	85%	51%	32%
Toronto 2-2, 1st in East	1508	84%	82%	57%	72%	41%	16%
Calgary 4-1, T-2nd in West	1556	94%	55%	18%	58%	26%	15%
Saskatchewan 4-2, T-2nd in West	1541	87%	33%	10%	47%	21%	13%
Hamilton 1-4, T-2nd in East	1481	53%	49%	20%	39%	20%	8%
Montreal 1-4, T-2nd in East	1466	56%	51%	18%	38%	18%	7%
British Columbia 3-1, 4th in West	1496	75%	21%	5%	35%	13%	6%
Ottawa 0-5, 4th in East	1404	21%	18%	5%	12%	5%	2%
Edmonton 2-4, 5th in West	1456	31%	3%	<1%	13%	5%	2%

Week 7 Game Predictions

Thursday: Montreal (51%) at Ottawa (48%)
Thursday: Hamilton (41%) at British Columbia (58%)
Friday: Winnipeg (63%) at Edmonton (36%)
Saturday: Toronto (38%) at Saskatchewan (61%)

It was a quieter week in the CFL last week, as there were only three games played.  All five Western teams played, but only Ottawa played from the East.

Thursday night’s game featured the Battle of Alberta, as Calgary travelled north to visit Edmonton.  Being ever the gracious hosts, Edmonton was soundly defeated by Calgary, 49-6.  Calgary is now 4-0, while Edmonton falls to 1-4.  The game was interrupted by a huge rainstorm, but that didn’t slow Calgary down.  Bo Levi Mitchell, the Calgary quarterback, completed 17 of 22 passes for 279 yards and two touchdowns, and receiver Malik Henry caught 6 passes for 150 yards, one of those being an 89 yard touchdown.  On the ground, running back Ka’Deem Carey gained 104 yards on 12 carries, and on defense, Calgary had two interceptions, three sacks, and two fumble recoveries, one of which resulted in a 63 yard touchdown.  Edmonton went through three quarterbacks, with two of them leaving the game due to injury.

Friday Night Football saw Ottawa heading to Regina to face the Saskatchewan Roughriders.  Saskatchewan defeated Ottawa 28-13, but the game was marred by an injury to Ottawa quarterback Jeremiah Masoli late in the game after a low hit by Rider lineman Garrett Marino.  Although the hit didn’t seem intentional, Marino made it worse by celebrating the hit over top of the injured Masoli, then uttered a racial epithet directed at the RedBlack quarterback.  Masoli required surgery and is expected to miss 12 weeks, while Marino was suspended for a CFL-record 4 games.  To this commentator, the punishment doesn’t seem sufficient to fit the crime; more appropriate would be a season-long suspension.

Saturday saw the final game of the week, with top-ranked Winnipeg heading to British Columbia to face the up-and-coming Lions.  Although it was expected to be a test for the Bombers, it wasn’t, as Winnipeg won 43-22 over BC.  Bomber QB Zach Collaros went 23 for 30 for 288 yards and three touchdowns, with receiver Dalton Schoen catching 8 of those for 117 yards and two touchdowns.  On defense, Winnipeg made three interceptions, one fumble recovery, and one sack, and on special teams, Janarion Grant returned the opening kickoff 97 yards for a touchdown.  On the BC side, quarterback Nathan Rourke passed for 278 yards and three touchdowns, although he also threw two interceptions.

The big game coming up this weekend is the Touchdown Atlantic game, with Saskatchewan and Toronto travelling to Wolfville, Nova Scotia, to play the first CFL game ever in Nova Scotia on Saturday afternoon.

Week 5 Results

Calgary 49  at Edmonton 6
Ottawa 13  at Saskatchewan 28
Winnipeg 43  at British Columbia 22

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

There were no changes to the rankings this week, although Toronto, being idle, closed the gap on BC following the Lions’ loss to Winnipeg.  Sadly, only three teams are rated above the 1500 average ranking, and all three of those teams are in the West.  The league seems quite unbalanced, with the top 4 teams all coming from the West, and all Eastern teams being ranked below average.

Ranking	Team	Rating	Record
1	Winnipeg	1599 (▲12)	5-0, 1st West
2	Calgary	1565 (▲10)	4-0, T-2nd West
3	Saskatchewan	1554 (▲7)	4-1, T-2nd West
4	British Columbia	1496 (▼11)	3-1, 4th West
5	Toronto	1495	1-2, T-1st East
6	Montreal	1482	1-3, T-1st East
7	Hamilton	1472	0-4, T-3rd East
8	Edmonton	1440 (▼10)	1-4, 5th West
9	Ottawa	1413 (▼6)	0-4, T-3rd East

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg continues to be the Grey Cup favourite, now with a 33% chance of winning the Cup, up 4% from last week.  Calgary follows with a 19% chance.  British Columbia were the only team to change in their chances, dropping 5 percentage points down to 3%, a result of playing in that tough Western Division.  Montreal has the most chance of winning it from the East, with an 11% probability.

Overall, there’s a 67% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, up 1% from last week’s report.

Grey Cup Ranking	Team	Rating	Win Grey Cup
1	Winnipeg	1599	33% (▲4)
2	Calgary	1555	19% (▲2)
3	Saskatchewan	1554	12%
4	Montreal	1482	11%
5	Toronto	1495	10%
6	Hamilton	1472	8%
7 (▲1)	Ottawa	1413	5%
8 (▼2)	British Columbia	1496	3% (▼5)
9	Edmonton	1440	<1%

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.

Team	Rating	Make Playoffs	Host Playoff Game	Win Division	Make Division Final	Make Grey Cup	Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg 5-0, 1st in West	1599	99%	77%	50%	77%	50%	33%
Calgary 4-0, T-2nd in West	1565	97%	60%	29%	60%	29%	19%
Saskatchewan 4-1, T-2nd in West	1554	93%	43%	16%	43%	16%	12%
Montreal 1-3, T-1st in East	1482	70%	65%	32%	65%	33%	11%
Toronto 1-2, T-1st in East	1495	74%	71%	42%	71%	28%	10%
Hamilton 0-4, T-3rd in East	1472	44%	40%	17%	40%	23%	8%
Ottawa 0-4, T-3rd in East	1413	28%	25%	9%	25%	16%	5%
British Columbia 3-1, 4th in West	1496	77%	18%	5%	18%	5%	3%
Edmonton 1-4, 5th in West	1440	19%	1%	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%

Week 6 Game Predictions

Thursday: Edmonton (37%) at Montreal (62%)
Friday: Calgary (38%) at Winnipeg (61%)
Saturday: Saskatchewan (57%) at Toronto (42%)
Saturday: Ottawa (35%) at Hamilton (64%)

Yet another exciting weekend of games in the CFL this week, although there weren’t many surprises in the final results.  The West continues their dominance of the East, as Western teams defeated Eastern teams in all four games this weekend.  And Winnipeg remains at the top of the field, despite a squeaker over Toronto on the 4th of July game (why is the CANADIAN Football League celebrating the US Independence Day???).

The weekend started off with Thursday Night Football, where British Columbia travelled to Ottawa to face the RedBlacks in the nation’s capital.  It was probably a good idea to avoid conflicting with the Canada Day celebrations, as British Columbia triumphed over Ottawa 34-31.  BC’s young Canadian quarterback, Nathan Rourke, continued to impress, going 23 for 31 and 359 yards and throwing two touchdowns, despite throwing two interceptions and losing the ball once on a fumble.  He also scored a touchdown on the ground, rambling for 50 yards for the score!  The Lions offense also benefited from receiver Keon Hatcher catching seven passes for 166 yards and a touchdown, and running back James Butler running for 129 yards and two touchdowns.  Ottawa was led by their defense, especially DB Monshadrik Hunter who made two interceptions and recovered a fumble, as the RedBlack defense scored 17 points off turnovers.

Friday’s Canada Day game saw Edmonton travel to Hamilton, as two 0-3 teams faced off.  In a surprise to the McDonald CFL Power Ratings team, Edmonton came back and defeated Hamilton 29-25.  Edmonton trailed Hamilton 22-9 in the third quarter, but their defense came up strong, as defensive back Jalen Collins returned a fumble for the winning touchdown with less than two minutes to go in the game.  Hamilton pretty much self-destructed at the end of the game, as two passes bounced out of the hands of Ticat receivers for interceptions late in the game.  Edmonton quarterback Tre Ford, another Canadian quarterback, got his first career start for the Elks, and went 15 for 26 for 159 yards, as well as rushed for 61 yards on 6 carries.

Saturday saw Montreal travel to Saskatchewan.  Playing at home, Saskatchewan looked to avenge last week’s 37-13 loss in Montreal, and they did, as the Riders convincingly defeated the Alouettes 41-20.  Sadly, the Rider offense looked ineffective in the first half, as they trailed 13-11 30 minutes in.  But, they switched up their game plan, and used running back Jamal Morrow to good effect as he gained 103 yards on 16 carries and scored a touchdown.  But it was the Saskatchewan defense that made the difference in this game, as they made two interceptions, recovered two fumbles, and sacked the Als quarterback six times!

And in an odd scheduling choice, the weekend ended on a Monday with top-ranked, undefeated Winnipeg playing in Toronto against the best team in the East, as the Argonauts held a 1-1 record.  In a surprisingly close game, Winnipeg held on to defeat Toronto 23-22.  As the game wound down, Toronto trailed by 7 points, and they engineered a last minute final drive for a touchdown to make the game 23-22, but they missed the convert and Winnipeg left Toronto with the victory.  The defense was the star of the show for the Blue Bombers, as they had three sacks, two interceptions, and one fumble recovery, with one of the interceptions being a pick-six on Toronto’s opening drive of the game.

Week 4 Results

British Columbia 34  at Ottawa 31
Edmonton 29  at Hamilton 25
Montreal 20  at Saskatchewan 41
Winnipeg 23  at Toronto 22

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

As they have been all year, Winnipeg remains the top-ranked team in the McDonald CFL Power Ratings.  The only change in the rankings was British Columbia and Toronto swapping places for 4th and 5th, as 4 of the 5 Western teams hold down the top spots in the rankings.  The fifth place team in the West, Edmonton, would be tied for first if they were in the Eastern Division, as their 1-3 record would be impressive for an Eastern team.  All four Eastern teams now have ratings below the 1500 average rating, and four of the Western teams are above the average.

Ranking	Team	Rating	Record
1	Winnipeg	1587 (▲12)	4-0, 1st West
2	Calgary	1555	3-0, T-2nd West
3	Saskatchewan	1547 (▲9)	3-1, T-2nd West
4 (▲1)	British Columbia	1507 (▲12)	3-0, T-2nd West
5 (▼1)	Toronto	1495 (▼12)	1-2, T-1st East
6	Montreal	1482 (▼9)	1-3, T-1st East
7	Hamilton	1472 (▼16)	0-4, T-3rd East
8	Edmonton	1450 (▲16)	1-3, 5th West
9	Ottawa	1419 (▼12)	0-3, T-3rd East

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg continues to be the most likely team to win the Grey Cup, as we’ve calculated they now have a 29% chance of winning it all.  That’s up 4% points from last week.  They’ll face a test this weekend as they travel to British Columbia to face the hot 3-0 Lions.  The only other big change in the chances this week was to Calgary, as their chances of winning dropped 3 percentage points, despite not playing this weekend!  It’s tough playing in the same division as the Blue Bombers!

Overall, there’s a 66% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, up 3% from last week’s report.

Grey Cup Ranking	Team	Rating	Win Grey Cup
1	Winnipeg	1587	29% (▲4)
2	Calgary	1555	17% (▼3)
3 (▲1)	Saskatchewan	1547	12% (▲1)
4 (▼1)	Montreal	1482	11% (▼1)
5	Toronto	1495	10%
T-6	Hamilton	1472	8% (▼1)
T-6 (▲1)	British Columbia	1507	8% (▲1)
8	Ottawa	1419	5% (▼1)
9	Edmonton	1450	<1%

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.

Team	Rating	Make Playoffs	Host Playoff Game	Win Division	Make Division Final	Make Grey Cup	Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg 4-0, 1st in West	1587	96%	69%	44%	69%	44%	29%
Calgary 3-0, T-2nd in West	1555	91%	53%	26%	53%	26%	17%
Saskatchewan 3-1, T-2nd in West	1547	88%	41%	17%	41%	17%	12%
Montreal 1-3, T-1st in East	1482	68%	63%	31%	63%	32%	11%
Toronto 1-2, T-1st in East	1495	73%	70%	42%	70%	28%	10%
Hamilton 0-4, T-3rd in East	1472	43%	39%	16%	39%	23%	8%
British Columbia 3-0, T-2nd in West	1507	82%	32%	13%	32%	13%	8%
Ottawa 0-3, T-3rd in East	1419	32%	28%	11%	28%	17%	5%
Edmonton 1-3, 5th in West	1450	27%	4%	1%	4%	1%	<1%

Week 5 Game Predictions

Thursday: Calgary (58%) at Edmonton (42%)
Friday: Ottawa (26%) at Saskatchewan (74%)
Saturday: Winnipeg (54%) at British Columbia (46%)

It’s only been Week 3, but it looks like the McDonald CFL Power Ratings are getting pretty accurate, working out the uncertainty that we introduce before the season starts.  As we’ve said a number of times, after about 4 games, we feel that the ratings are quite accurate, but they are looking pretty good already.

Week 3 started off with Saskatchewan heading off to Montreal to face the Alouettes.  This game was all Montreal, as they scored a touchdown on the opening kickoff return, and never looked back, as they came away with a 37-13 victory.  The star of the game was the Montreal defense, as they had three interceptions, a touchdown and eight (eight!!!) sacks.  Saskatchewan replaced their quarterback Cody Fajardo with his backup Mason Fine in the fourth quarter.  Montreal kicker David Côté was 5-for-5 on his field goal attempts.

On Friday, Hamilton visited the top-ranked Winnipeg Blue Bombers.  Winnipeg remain undefeated with a 3-0 record after winning the game 26-12.  Bomber quarterback Zach Collaros completed 21 of his 32 passes for 302 yards, and receiver Nic Demski caught 6 of those passes for 96 yards before leaving the game early in the third quarter with an injury.  The win was Winnipeg’s 11th straight home win.

There were two games on Saturday.  In the first, it was the battle of Alberta, as the undefeated Calgary Stampeders hosted the winless Edmonton Elks.  In a surprisingly close game, Calgary beat Edmonton 30-23.  Bo Levi Mitchell, the Stampeder quarterback, led the offense passing 21-for-28 for 321 yards, and running back Ka’Deem Carey ran for 91 yards.

In the final game of the weekend, British Columbia were ungracious hosts to the Toronto Argonauts, thumping them 44-3.  Quarterback Nathan Rourke had a historic game, passing for 436 yards, the most ever by a Canadian quarterback in a single game.  He completed 39 of his 45 pass attempts to seven different receivers, with Dominque Rhymes catching eight of those for 143 yards and two touchdowns.  Aside from the impressive passing display, running back David Mackie carried the ball 16 times for 90 yards.

Week 3 Results

Saskatchewan 13  at Montreal 37
Hamilton 12  at Winnipeg 26
Edmonton 23  at Calgary 30Toronto 3  at British Columbia 44

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

Here’s the current McDonald CFL Power Ratings.  Winnipeg remains the top-ranked team, but Calgary and Saskatchewan swapped places after Saskatchewan lost their first game of the year and Calgary remains undefeated.  Toronto is the top-ranked team from the East, currently in fourth, and are the only Eastern team with a rating higher than the baseline of 1500.  Ottawa remains at the bottom after being idle this week, but Edmonton is quickly racing for the bottom, just 3 rating points ahead of Ottawa.

Ranking	Team	Rating	Record
1	Winnipeg	1575 (▲8)	3-0, T-1st West
2 (▲1)	Calgary	1555 (▲7)	3-0, T-1st West
3 (▼1)	Saskatchewan	1538 (▼13)	2-1, T-3rd West
4	Toronto	1507 (▼12)	1-1, T-1st East
5 (▲1)	British Columbia	1495 (▲12)	2-0, T-3rd West
6 (▲1)	Montreal	1491 (▲13)	1-2, T-1st East
7 (▼2)	Hamilton	1488 (▼8)	0-3, T-3rd East
8	Edmonton	1434 (▼7)	0-3, 5th West
9	Ottawa	1431	0-2, T-3rd East

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg remains the most likely team to win the Grey Cup, with a big jump of probability from 21% to 25% after this week’s win.  Saskatchewan saw a big drop in their chances, dropping from 19% down to 11%.  Calgary is the second favourite, at 20%.  The Eastern teams aren’t looking very good, with Montreal the most likely to win the Grey Cup with a 12% chance, despite having a below average McDonald CFL Power Rating.  In our simulations, Edmonton has an extremely slim chance of winning, less than 1%, which is unprecedented so early in the season.

Overall, there’s a 63% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, no change from last week’s report.

Grey Cup Ranking	Team	Rating	Win Grey Cup
1	Winnipeg	1575	25% (▲4)
2 (▲1)	Calgary	1555	20% (▲3)
3 (▲1)	Montreal	1491	12% (▲1)
4 (▼2)	Saskatchewan	1538	11% (▼8)
5 (▲1)	Toronto	1507	10% (▲1)
6 (▼1)	Hamilton	1488	9% (▼1)
7 (▲1)	British Columbia	1495	7% (▲2)
8 (▼1)	Ottawa	1431	6%
9	Edmonton	1434	<1% (▼1)

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.

Team	Rating	Make Playoffs	Host Playoff Game	Win Division	Make Division Final	Make Grey Cup	Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg 3-0, T-1st in West	1575	94%	66%	39%	66%	39%	25%
Calgary 3-0, T-1st in West	1555	92%	61%	32%	61%	32%	20%
Montreal 1-2, T-1st in East	1491	70%	61%	29%	61%	31%	12%
Saskatchewan 2-1, T-3rd in West	1538	84%	40%	16%	40%	16%	11%
Toronto 1-1, T-1st in East	1507	76%	69%	41%	69%	28%	10%
Hamilton 0-3, T-3rd in East	1488	52%	42%	18%	42%	24%	9%
British Columbia 2-0, T-3rd in West	1495	74%	30%	12%	30%	12%	7%
Ottawa 0-2, T-3rd in East	1431	38%	29%	11%	29%	18%	6%
Edmonton 0-3, 5th in West	1434	19%	3%	1%	3%	1%	<1%

Week 4 Game Predictions

Thursday: British Columbia (52%) at Ottawa (48%)
Friday: Edmonton (35%) at Hamilton (65%)
Saturday: Montreal (36%) at Saskatchewan (64%)
Monday: Winnipeg (53%) at Toronto (47%)

Another exciting week in the CFL, with 3 of the games being decided by a difference of one touchdown or less!

In the Thursday Night Football game, Toronto squeaked out a victory over Montreal, 20-19.  It was Toronto’s first game of the year, as they had a bye in Week 1.  Trailing 20-12 halfway through the 4th quarter, Montreal looked determined as they scored a touchdown to narrow the score, but failed on their two-point convert attempt which would have tied the game.  Regaining the ball with 2:44 left, Montreal started their final march from their own 34 yard line, and after a drive that included successful 3rd-and-long and 2nd-and-long conversions, they held the ball at the Toronto 13 yard line with 18 seconds left.  Als placekicker David Cote, who was so far 4-for-4 on field goal attempts, lined up for a 21-yard field goal that would give Montreal the lead.  But, he missed the chip shot, Montreal had to settle for a rouge (often the most exciting play in Canadian football, but sadly not in this case), and Toronto ran out the clock for the 20-19 victory.

Friday night’s game saw two-time defending Grey Cup champion Winnipeg play bottom-ranked Ottawa in Canada’s capital.  In a surprisingly close game, Winnipeg won 19-12.  RedBlack quarterback Jeremiah Masoli completed 27 of his 38 passes for 331 yards, but couldn’t score a touchdown.  Winnipeg QB Zach Collaros had a pedestrian performance, going 15 for 22 for 228 yards, but did throw a pair of touchdowns in the victory.

In an exciting game to start Saturday’s doubleheader, Calgary trailed most of the game but came back in the end, defeating Hamilton 33-30 in overtime.  Trailing 24-3 at the half, Calgary scored 3 second-half touchdowns and two field goals, including a tying 39-yarder as time ran out to tie the game.  On the first possession of the overtime, Calgary had to settle for a field goal, but when Hamilton had the ball, they were picked off to seal the thrilling victory for the Stampeders.  For the winners, quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell completed 28 of his 42 passes for 313 and 2 touchdowns, and was helped by Rene Paredes’ four field goals.  On the losing side, Hamilton’s QB Dane Evans went 36 for 51 for 425 yards and three touchdowns, but it wasn’t enough.

In Saturday’s nightcap, Saskatchewan travelled to Edmonton to face the lowly Elks.  In what seems to be a trend for the Riders, they had trouble getting the ball into the endzone, but came through in the end for a 26-16 victory.  The Rider defense looked strong, but their offense needs to start scoring more touchdowns!  The offensive star of the game was Saskatchewan running back Jamal Morrow, who rushed for 126 yards and a touchdown.  QB Cody Fajardo went 20 for 26 for 247 yards.  For the Elks, Nick Arbuckle passed for 315 yards and a touchdown, but threw two interceptions, and receiver Kenny Lawler pulled in 12 passes for 149 yards.

Week 2 Results

Montreal 19  at Toronto 20
Winnipeg 19 at Ottawa 12
Calgary 33 at Hamilton 30 (OT)
Saskatchewan 26 at Edmonton 16

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

Here’s the current McDonald CFL Power Ratings.  The uncertainty that we’ve added at the beginning of the season is surprisingly being worked out faster than expected, as our predictions have gone 7 for 8 in the first two weeks, with the only one we missed being this week’s Calgary / Hamilton game that Calgary won in overtime, whereas we had given Hamilton a 53% chance of winning the game, Week 2’s closest game according to our crack statisticians and prognosticators.

Two-time defending Grey Cup champion Winnipeg continues to be the top-ranked team.  Saskatchewan shows up number 2 in our rankings, just slightly ahead of Calgary.  Toronto is the top-ranked team in the East, as they are the only Eastern team with a victory so far this year!  British Columbia moved past Montreal in the standings, by virtue of not playing while the Alouettes did and lost.  Edmonton and Ottawa are the lowest-ranked teams.

Ranking	Team	Rating	Record
1	Winnipeg	1567 (▲10)	2-0, T-1st West
2	Saskatchewan	1551 (▲11)	2-0, T-1st West
3	Calgary	1548 (▲13)	2-0, T-1st West
4	Toronto	1519 (▲10)	1-0, 1st East
5 (▼1)	Hamilton	1496 (▼13)	0-2, T-2nd East
6 (▲1)	British Columbia	1483	1-0, 4th West
7 (▼1)	Montreal	1478 (▼10)	0-2, T-2nd East
8	Edmonton	1441 (▼11)	0-2, 5th West
9	Ottawa	1431 (▼10)	0-2, T-2nd East

Grey Cup Predictions

There’s been only slight movement in our Grey Cup predictions.  Winnipeg is still the likeliest team to win it all, now at 21% probability, followed closely by Saskatchewan (19%) and Calgary (17%).  Despite being the third-ranked team in the East, Montreal is our top pick for an Eastern team to win the Grey Cup, at 11%.  Overall, there’s a 63% chance of a Western team winning, up from 61% last week.

Grey Cup Ranking	Team	Rating	Win Grey Cup
1	Winnipeg	1567	21% (▲1)
2	Saskatchewan	1551	19% (▲2)
3	Calgary	1548	17% (▲2)
4 (▲1)	Montreal	1478	11% (▲1)
5 (▼1)	Hamilton	1496	10% (▼1)
6 (▼1)	Toronto	1519	9% (▼1)
7	Ottawa	1431	6% (▼1)
8 (▼1)	British Columbia	1483	5% (▼2)
9	Edmonton	1441	1% (▼1)

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.

Team	Rating	Make Playoffs	Host Playoff Game	Win Division	Make Division Final	Make Grey Cup	Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg 2-0, T-1st in West	1567	91%	60%	34%	60%	34%	21%
Saskatchewan 2-0, T-1st in West	1551	89%	56%	28%	56%	28%	19%
Calgary 2-0, T-1st in West	1548	88%	55%	28%	55%	28%	17%
Montreal 0-2, T-2nd in East	1478	58%	46%	17%	46%	29%	11%
Hamilton 0-2, T-2nd in East	1496	60%	49%	22%	49%	27%	10%
Toronto 1-0, 1st in East	1519	83%	76%	51%	76%	25%	9%
Ottawa 0-2, T-2nd in East	1431	39%	29%	10%	29%	19%	6%
British Columbia 1-0, 4th in West	1483	63%	23%	9%	23%	9%	5%
Edmonton 0-2, 5th in West	1441	27%	6%	2%	6%	2%	1%

Week 3 Game Predictions

Thursday: Saskatchewan (53%) at Montreal (47%)
Friday: Hamilton (33%) at Winnipeg (67%)
Saturday: Edmonton (29%) at Calgary (71%)
Saturday: Toronto (48%) at British Columbia (52%)

The CFL regular season has started!!!  It was a good week for the home team, as all 4 games ended with home victories.  As might be expected, the Eastern Division doesn’t look real good, as the first place team is Toronto, with an unblemished 0-0-0 record.  Okay, maybe that’s not fair, as all four games this week were held in the West, but we like to poke fun at the traditionally weaker Eastern Division.

In the season opener on Thursday night, Montreal played Calgary in Calgary.  It was an exciting game, with the scored tied at 27 with 45 seconds left, when Rene Paredes kicked the game-winning field goal to give Calgary the 30-27 victory.  Stampeders running back Ka’Deem Carey was the standout player of the game, scoring two touchdowns and racking up 90 all-purpose yards.  Montreal’s Eugene Lewis was the leading receiver, pulling in 4 passes for 112 yards, including a 55-yarder.  Unfortunately for the Alouettes, their star running back William Stanback was injured in the second quarter and didn’t return — that might have been the difference in the game.

Friday night, the Ottawa RedBlacks travelled to Winnipeg to face the two-time defending champion Blue Bombers.  In the second exciting game of the weekend, Winnipeg pulled out a come-from-behind victory when kicker Marc Liegghio put through a 25-yard field goal, giving Winnipeg a 19-17 victory.  Quarterback Zach Collaros led Winnipeg with an 18-for-26, 188 yard, 1 touchdown performance, before being pulled late in the fourth quarter after taking a hit to the head. Backup QB Dru Brown came in and put together the game-winning drive for the Bombers.  In a losing cause, new RedBlacks quarterback Jeremiah Masoli put in an impressive performance, going 24-for-34 throwing for 380 yards and a touchdown.

The game all CFL fans were waiting for started a double-header on Saturday, as Hamilton visited Mosaic Stadium to face the Saskatchewan Roughriders.  What, aren’t all CFL fans Rider fans?  Maybe it just seems like it.  Anyways, the game was a low-scoring affair for three and a half quarters, with neither team scoring a touchdown until Hamilton scored with 7:10 left in the game to narrow Saskatchewan’s lead to 15-13.  And then Saskatchewan exploded, scoring two touchdowns 20 seconds apart (separated by a Rider interception) to give the home team the 30-13 victory.  Kicker Brett Lauther led the Rider scoring, going 5-for-5 in his field goal attempts, while quarterback Cody Fajardo went 22-for-32 for 311 yards, as well as being the game’s leading rusher with 42 yards.

In Saturday’s nightcap, Chris Jones’ coaching/GM career with the Edmonton Elks looked like how it ended when he held the dual role with Saskatchewan, as his much-vaunted defense held the BC Lions to 59 points in a resounding 59-15 thumping by British Columbia.  New BC quarterback Nathan Rourke went 26-for-29 (wait a minute, let me check that — yes, 26 for 29!) for 282 yards and three touchdowns, while also running for 78 yards and scoring two touchdowns himself.  Lions running back James Butler also had a good night, rushing for 108 yards and scoring 4 touchdowns, 2 on the ground and 2 receiving TDs.

It was an exciting first week of the season!  The McDonald CFL Power Ratings team are looking forward to next week!

Week 1 Results

Montreal 27 at Calgary 30
Ottawa 17 at Winnipeg 19
Hamilton 13 at Saskatchewan 30Edmonton 15 at British Columbia 59

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

Here’s the McDonald CFL Power Ratings after the first week.  Remember, we’ve adjusted these ratings to account for the early season uncertainty, but still, we’ve got two-time defending CFL champion Winnipeg as the top team.  Despite losing in the final seconds to last year’s champion, we have Ottawa as the lowest-ranked team, even after Edmonton’s drubbing by British Columbia.  But, we’re not super confident in these ratings; it usually takes about 4 games before that uncertainty gets worked out of the rating system.  Anyways, here’s this week’s ratings.

Ranking	Team	Rating	Record
1	Winnipeg	1557 (▲8)	1-0, T-1st West
2	Saskatchewan	1540 (▲11)	1-0, T-1st West
3	Calgary	1535 (▲10)	1-0, T-1st West
4 (tie) (▲1)	Toronto	1509	0-0, 1st East
4 (tie)	Hamilton	1509 (▼11)	0-1, T-2nd East
6	Montreal	1488 (▼10)	0-1, T-2nd East
7	British Columbia	1483 (▲10)	1-0, T-1st West
8	Edmonton	1452 (▼10)	0-1, 5th West
9	Ottawa	1441 (▼8)	0-1, T-2nd East

Grey Cup Predictions

There is very little change in our Grey Cup predictions, as would be expected this early in the season.  Winnipeg is still the favourite to win, now with a 20% chance of winning it.  After their first game drubbing, Edmonton has dropped down to just a 2% Grey Cup-winning probability.  Overall, there’s a 61% chance of a Western team winning, which is helped by the Grey Cup being held in Regina this year.

Grey Cup Ranking	Team	Rating	Win Grey Cup
1	Winnipeg	1557	20% (▲1)
2	Saskatchewan	1540	17% (▲1)
3	Calgary	1535	15% (▲1)
4	Hamilton	1509	11% (▼1)
5 (tie)	Montreal	1488	10% (▼1)
5 (tie)	Toronto	1509	10% (▼1)
7 (tie)	Ottawa	1441	7%
7 (tie) (▲1)	British Columbia	1483	7% (▲1)
9	Edmonton	1452	2% (▼3)

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.  There’s not much to add beyond what was said earlier.

Team	Rating	Make Playoffs	Host Playoff Game	Win Division	Make Division Final	Make Grey Cup	Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg 1-0, T-1st in West	1557	85%	57%	32%	57%	32%	20%
Saskatchewan 1-0, T-1st in West	1540	82%	51%	26%	51%	26%	17%
Calgary 1-0, T-1st in West	1535	80%	50%	25%	50%	25%	15%
Hamilton 0-1, T-2nd in East	1509	69%	56%	29%	56%	27%	11%
Montreal 0-1, T-2nd in East	1488	64%	50%	23%	50%	27%	10%
Toronto 0-0, 1st in East	1509	74%	62%	35%	62%	26%	10%
Ottawa 0-1, T-2nd in East	1441	45%	32%	12%	32%	19%	7%
British Columbia 1-0, T-1st in West	1483	63%	29%	12%	29%	12%	7%
Edmonton 0-1, 5th in West	1452	38%	13%	5%	13%	5%	2%

Week 2 Game Predictions

Thursday: Montreal (40%) at Toronto (60%)
Friday: Winnipeg (59%) at Ottawa (41%)
Saturday: Calgary (47%) at Hamilton (53%)
Saturday: Saskatchewan (55%) at Edmonton (45%)

 

Experts predict Winnipeg wins 3rd straight Grey Cup

As the NHL playoffs begin winding down, the McDonald Power Ratings team can only think of one thing — the CFL is starting soon!!!  We’ve done our usual evaluation of teams, looked at the transactions, honed our predictions based on each team’s schedule, and run all of our simulations.  We’ve got our predictions for this year, and here’s a summary of what we’re expecting.

Initial Ratings

Let’s start with a warning about our doubts with our initial ratings.  Last year was an odd year, as COVID reduced the length of the schedule from 18 to 14 games, and there was some schedule rescheduling as a result of teams being affected by COVID.  In an effort to increase scoring, the league honchos have tweaked the rules, most notably moving the hash marks closer to the centre of the field in the misplaced belief that it will open up the game.  As a result, we have adjusted our ratings to account for this uncertainty.  We always adjust our initial ratings to decrease the ratings for the better than average teams and increase the ratings for the worse than average teams, but we’ve adjusted by a larger amount than normal this year.  As the first few games are played, the ratings will be adjusted appropriately, but for now, here’s our initial ratings to give an indication of how we think the season will go.

Ranking	Team	Rating	2021 Record	2021 Playoffs
1	Winnipeg	1549	11-3, 1st West	Won Grey Cup
2	Saskatchewan	1529	9-5, 2nd West	Lost West Final
3	Calgary	1525	8-6, 3rd West	Lost West Semi
4	Hamilton	1520	8-6, 2nd East	Lost Grey Cup
5	Toronto	1509	9-5, 1st East	Lost East Final
6	Montreal	1498	7-7, 3rd East	Lost East Semi
7	British Columbia	1473	5-9, 4th West	—
8	Edmonton	1462	3-11, 5th West	—
9	Ottawa	1449	3-11, 4th East	—

What about those rule changes???

As we mentioned above, the CFL felt that, because scoring was down, they needed to change the rules to allow more offensive scoring.  You can read a good article about all of the rule changes here.  We’ve surveyed the entire McDonald Power Ratings team, and they are unanimous in thinking that the rule changes are dumb.  If teams want more scoring, they can try more inventive play calling.  Most teams seem to follow the same formula: 1st down, run the ball up the middle; 2nd down, pass for a first down (or just short of a first down); 3rd down, punt.  That makes for pretty boring games.  Well, in the CFL’s favour, they didn’t decide to add a fourth down.

Our biggest disappointment with the rule changes is once again making all no-yards penalties be 15 yards.  For some reason, players from the States never seem to understand that you’ve got to give the punt returner 5 yards.  We expect we’ll see a return to the standard strategy of letting the ball bounce, wait for the kicking team to infringe on the 5 yard zone, then pick up the ball and get an automatic 15 yard return.  We’ve seen it before, we’ll see it again.

What’s the McDonald Power Ratings team formula for increased excitement and, as a result, increased attendance at the games?  Always have the visiting team be the Saskatchewan Roughriders, because all us watermelon heads that have spread throughout the country will pack the stands and cheer wildly!

Grey Cup Predictions

OK, on to our predictions.  After adjusting our ratings and running our simulations, here’s what we’re expecting.

Grey Cup Ranking	Team	Rating	Win Grey Cup
1	Winnipeg	1549	19%
2	Saskatchewan	1529	16%
3	Calgary	1525	14%
4	Hamilton	1520	12%
5 (tie)	Toronto	1509	11%
5 (tie)	Montreal	1498	11%
7	Ottawa	1449	7%
8	British Columbia	1473	6%
9	Edmonton	1462	5%

Winnipeg has won the last two Grey Cups, and they are our favourite to win it again this year.  They clearly dominated the league last year, and by the looks of things, they’re the strongest team again this year.  Saskatchewan looked good last year as well, and as the Grey Cup will be held in Regina this year, that gives the Riders a boost in their chances, as long as they can make it to the Grey Cup!  We think that Hamilton is the strongest team in the East, and are our top choice from the East.  We think that Edmonton is the least likely to win the Grey Cup, and for any non-fans of Elks GM and head coach Chris Jones, you won’t be surprised.

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions for the season.

Team	Rating	Make Playoffs	Host Playoff Game	Win Division	Make Division Final	Make Grey Cup	Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg	1549	80%	56%	32%	56%	32%	19%
Saskatchewan	1529	75%	47%	24%	47%	24%	16%
Calgary	1525	74%	47%	23%	47%	23%	14%
Hamilton	1520	75%	59%	32%	59%	27%	12%
Toronto	1509	72%	56%	29%	56%	26%	11%
Montreal	1498	69%	52%	25%	52%	27%	11%
Ottawa	1449	50%	33%	13%	33%	20%	7%
British Columbia	1473	54%	27%	11%	27%	11%	6%
Edmonton	1462	50%	24%	10%	24%	10%	5%

Week 1 Game Predictions

Thursday: Montreal (39%) at Calgary (61%)
Friday: Ottawa (30%) at Winnipeg (70%)
Saturday: Hamilton (42%) at Saskatchewan (58%)
Saturday: Edmonton (41%) at British Columbia (59%)

It was a very boring weekend of games in the CFL this week.  Most teams’ playoff positions were determined, so they rested quite a few starters, giving backups a chance to play.  It made for very unpredictable and yet not well-played games.

It was also a rare week of 5 games, with Edmonton playing twice, due to their earlier game with Toronto rescheduled because of COVID protocols.  Edmonton ended up playing three games in eight days, quite a difficult schedule.  But, neither of their games this week meant anything, so it probably wasn’t a big deal.

Now, having said all that, I didn’t bother watching any of the games, so here’s the headlines and links to the game summaries from cfl.ca:

• Elks down Argos for third win of season
• RedBlacks storm back to stun Als in season finale
• Lions down Elks in dominant season finale
• Ticats wrap up reg-season with big win over Riders
• Stamps stun Bombers with late TD, FG

Week 16 Results

Edmonton 13  at Toronto 7
Ottawa 19  at Montreal 18
Edmonton 10  at British Columbia 43
Saskatchewan 3  at Hamilton 24
Winnipeg 12  at Calgary 13

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

There was very little change in the McDonald CFL Power Rankings this week.  The top 3 teams remain Winnipeg, Saskatchewan, and Calgary; hopefully, that will make for interesting playoffs in the West, although Winnipeg is very dominant, and will play the West Final at home.  Saskatchewan is rated slightly better than Calgary, but this week showed what could happen to them if they lose their starting quarterback.  Toronto dropped down in the rankings, so despite finishing first in the East, we’ve got them ranked as the second-best team in the East, with Hamilton number one.  Ottawa finished the season ranked last, but with their win this week, their rating did improve, but the all still below the 1400-rating-point stink line.

Ranking	Team	Rating	Record
1	Winnipeg	1598 (▼13)	11-3, 1st West
2	Saskatchewan	1558 (▼12)	9-5, 2nd West
3	Calgary	1550 (▲14)	8-6, 3rd West
4 (▲1)	Hamilton	1539 (▲12)	8-6, 2nd East
5 (▼2)	Toronto	1518 (▼18)	9-5, 1st East
6	Montreal	1496 (▼18)	7-7, 3rd East
7	British Columbia	1446 (▲11)	5-9, 4th West
8	Edmonton	1425 (▲7)	3-11, 5th West
9	Ottawa	1398 (▲19)	3-11, 4th East

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg is still the favourite to win the Grey Cup, with a 36% chance.  But, remember, that’s just over a one-third chance of winning, so despite being the dominant team, anything can happen.  Finishing first in your division is a big advantage; you only need to win one game to make the Grey Cup, and you play that game at home, so Toronto is our number 2 favourite to win, at 22%.  Perhaps Hamilton at #3 is a bit of a surprise, but if they do make it to the Grey Cup, they’ll be playing it at home, so that will boost their chances.

We’re giving a Western team a 57% chance of winning the Grey Cup.

Grey Cup Ranking	Team	Rating	Win Grey Cup
1	Winnipeg	1598	36% (▼1)
2	Toronto	1518	22% (▼2)
3 (▲1)	Hamilton	1539	15% (▲4)
4 (▼1)	Saskatchewan	1558	12% (▼1)
5 (▲1)	Calgary	1550	9% (▲2)
6 (▼1)	Montreal	1496	6% (▼2)
7 (tie)	British Columbia	1435	—
7 (tie)	Edmonton	1424	—
7 (tie)	Ottawa	1379	—

Our Full Predictions

This weekend, we’re predicting wins for the home teams: Hamilton over Montreal in the East, and Saskatchewan over Calgary in the West.  Hamilton are clear favourites to win the East Semi-Final (63% chance of winning), but Saskatchewan will have a tougher time facing Calgary (58%).  Hopefully the friendly confines of Mosaic Stadium will be good to the Riders.

Team	Rating	Make Playoffs	Host Playoff Game	Win Division	Make Division Final	Make Grey Cup	Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg 11-3 1st in West	1598	✔	✔	✔	✔	61%	36%
Toronto 9-5 1st in East	1518	✔	✔	✔	✔	55%	22%
Hamilton 8-6 2nd in East	1539	✔	✔	—	63%	30%	15%
Saskatchewan 9-5 2nd in West	1558	✔	✔	—	58%	23%	12%
Calgary 8-6 3rd in West	1550	✔	—	—	42%	16%	9%
Montreal 7-7 3rd in East	1496	✔	—	—	37%	16%	6%
British Columbia 5-9 4th in West	1446	—	—	—	—	—	—
Edmonton 3-11 5th in West	1425	—	—	—	—	—	—
Ottawa 3-11 4th in East	1398	—	—	—	—	—	—

Division Semi-Final Predictions

Sunday: Montreal (37%) at Hamilton (63%)
Sunday: Calgary (42%) at Saskatchewan (58%)