McDonald NHL Power Ratings – January 8, 2023

Hockey playerWe’re almost halfway through the NHL season, and there’s one team that’s standing out from the rest.  Boston is having an amazing season, currently sitting with a record of 32 wins, 4 regular season losses, and 4 overtime losses.  They continue to sit at the top of our rankings, but there has been a bit of change in our top 5.

Boston continued their great run, going 4-0-0 this week, with regulation wins over 7th-ranked Pittsburgh, 12th-ranked Los Angeles, 28th-ranked San Jose, and 31st-ranked Anaheim.  Their performance garnered them 19 more rating points, putting them at 1632 for the year.  They currently sit in first place in the Atlantic Division, as well as the NHL, and we’ve calculated that they’ve got a greater than 99% chance of making the playoffs, an 82% chance of winning the President’s Trophy, and a 19% chance of winning the Stanley Cup!  They only have two games next week, both at home, one of which is against Toronto.

Toronto is ranked 2nd this week, up one swap from last week.  They went 2-1-1 this week, beating 24th-ranked Detroit and 26th-ranked Philadelphia, losing in overtime to 18th-ranked St. Louis, and losing in regulation to 14th-ranked Seattle.  With their middling performance, they lost 3 rating points, but due to Carolina’s poor week, they still moved up into 2nd place in our rankings.  Their big game this week will be on the 14th against Boston.

Carolina had a disastrous week, losing all three of their games.  They lost in regulation to the 5th-ranked New York Rangers and 19th-ranked Nashville, and lost in a shootout to 30th-ranked Columbus.  The boys in the back room have dropped their rating by 21 rating points, but that’s still good enough for 3rd in our rankings, down one spot from last week.

Dallas is fourth in our rankings, the same as last week.  They went 1-2-0 this week, beating 20th-ranked Florida but losing to 12th-ranked Los Angeles and 31st-ranked Anaheim.  That resulted in a 12 point rating drop, but they stay the same spot in the rankings.

Rounding out the top 5 is a newcomer, with the New York Rangers entering at number 5, 3 spots up from last week.  They had a fairly decent week, beating 3rd-ranked Carolina and 29th-ranked Montreal, but losing in overtime to 17th-ranked New Jersey.  Despite being in our top 5, we’re only giving them a 78% chance of even making the playoffs, as they currently sit in 4th place in the Metropolitan Division.

Seattle and Nashville were the top two movers this week.  Seattle won all three of their games, all in regulation time, and all on the road.  They beat 12th-ranked Edmonton, 2nd-ranked Toronto, and 23rd-ranked Ottawa to gain 27 ranking points and moving from 21st in our rankings all the way up to 14th!  Nashville also had a perfect week with 3 wins, beating 29th-ranked Montreal at home, and 3rd-ranked Carolina and 6th-ranked Washington on the road.  As a result, they picked up 25 rating points, and moved from 23rd to 19th in our rankings.

The biggest downward mover this week was Arizona, who lost all 4 of their games this week in regulation time, resulting in us dropping them 27 rating points.  However, that only resulted in them moving down one spot in the rankings, to 27th, but we now calculate that they’ve only got a 2% chance of making the playoffs, down from last week’s 13%!  Their losses were to 20th-ranked Florida, 26th-ranked Philadelphia, 32nd-ranked Chicago, and 7th-ranked Pittsburgh.

Boston remains our favourites to win both the President’s Trophy and the Stanley Cup.  We’re giving them an 82% chance of winning the President’s Trophy, up 25% from last week, with the next closest teams being Carolina and Toronto, the only other teams to have greater than a 1% chance of winning it, both at 6%.  We’ve calculated that Boston has a 19% chance of winning the Stanley Cup, up 5% from last week, with Toronto, Carolina, and Dallas the next most likely, at 9%, 8%, and 7%, respectively.

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

The top 5

1. Boston Bruins (1632, ▲19)

Record: 32-4-4, 1st in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: >99%
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 82% (▲25)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 19% (▲5)

Last week: 4-0-0

  • January 2: Won 2-1 vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (7th, 1540)
  • January 5: Won 5-2 @ Los Angeles Kings (12th, 1524)
  • January 7: Won 4-2 @ San Jose Sharks (28th, 1426)
  • January 8: Won 7-1 @ Anaheim Ducks (31st, 1383)

Next week:

  • January 12: vs. Seattle Kraken (14th, 1520)
  • January 14: vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (2nd, 1591)

2. Toronto Maple Leafs ▲1 (1591, ▼3)

Record: 25-9-7, 2nd in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 98%
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 6% (▼4)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▼1)

Last week: 2-1-1

  • January 3: Lost in SO 6-5 vs. St. Louis Blues (18th, 1509)
  • January 5: Lost 5-1 vs. Seattle Kraken (14th, 1520)
  • January 7: Won 4-1 vs. Detroit Red Wings (24th, 1465)
  • January 8: Won 6-2 @ Philadelphia Flyers (26th, 1457)

Next week:

  • January 11: vs. Nashville Predators (19th, 1507)
  • January 12: @ Detroit Red Wings (24th, 1465)
  • January 14: @ Boston Bruins (1st, 1632)

3. Carolina Hurricanes ▼1 (1578, ▼21)

Record: 25-8-7, 1st in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 98% (▼1)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 6% (▼16)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▼3)

Last week: 0-2-1

  • January 3: Lost 5-3 @ New York Rangers (5th, 1555)
  • January 5: Lost 5-3 vs. Nashville Predators (19th, 1507)
  • January 7: Lost in SO 4-3 @ Columbus Blue Jackets (30th, 1396)

Next week:

  • January 10: vs. New Jersey Devils (17th, 1513)
  • January 12: @ Columbus Blue Jackets (30th, 1396)
  • January 14: vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (7th, 1540)
  • January 15: vs. Vancouver Canucks (25th, 1464)

4. Dallas Stars (1559, ▼12)

Record: 24-11-6, 1st in Central Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 96% (▼2)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 1% (▼4)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▼2)

Last week: 1-2-0

  • January 3: Lost 3-2 @ Los Angeles Kings (12th, 1524)
  • January 4: Lost 2-0 @ Anaheim Ducks (31st, 1383)
  • January 8: Won 5-1 vs. Florida Panthers (20th, 1504)

Next week:

  • January 10: @ New York Islanders (16th, 1514)
  • January 12: @ New York Rangers (5th, 1555)
  • January 14: vs. Calgary Flames (11th, 1529)

5. New York Rangers ▲3 (1555, ▲13)

Record: 22-12-7, 4th in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 78% (▲14)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 5% (▲1)

Last week: 2-0-1

  • January 3: Won 5-3 vs. Carolina Hurricanes (3rd, 1578)
  • January 5: Won 4-1 @ Montreal Canadiens (29th, 1408)
  • January 7: Lost in OT 4-3 @ New Jersey Devils (17th, 1513)

Next week:

  • January 10: vs. Minnesota Wild (9th, 1538)
  • January 12: vs. Dallas Stars (4th, 1559)
  • January 15: vs. Montreal Canadiens (29th, 1408)

Overall Ratings

 1       Boston Bruins                 1632 (▲19)
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1)      1591 (▼3)
 3       Carolina Hurricanes (▼1)      1578 (▼21)
 4       Dallas Stars                  1559 (▼12)
 5       New York Rangers (▲3)         1555 (▲13)
 6       Washington Capitals           1544 (▼2)
 7       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1)      1540 (▼6)
 8       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼3)      1539 (▼9)
 9 (tie) Minnesota Wild                1538 (▼2)
 9 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲4)            1538 (▲19)
11       Calgary Flames (▼1)           1529 (▼2)
12 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          1524 (▼3)
12 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲3)        1524 (▲11)
14       Seattle Kraken (▲7)           1520 (▲27)
15       Vegas Golden Knights (▲2)     1517 (▲6)
16       New York Islanders (▼4)       1514 (▼7)
17       New Jersey Devils (▼3)        1513 (▼1)
18       St. Louis Blues (▲1)          1509 (▲12)
19       Nashville Predators (▲4)      1507 (▲25)
20       Florida Panthers              1504 (▲8)
21       Buffalo Sabres (▼3)           1503 (▲2)
22       Colorado Avalanche (▼6)       1498 (▼14)
23       Ottawa Senators (▲1)          1471 (▼3)
24       Detroit Red Wings (▼2)        1465 (▼20)
25       Vancouver Canucks             1464 (▼4)
26       Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      1457 (▲8)
27       Arizona Coyotes (▼1)          1430 (▼27)
28       San Jose Sharks               1426 (▼4)
29       Montreal Canadiens            1408 (▼1)
30       Columbus Blue Jackets         1396 (▼11)
31       Anaheim Ducks                 1383
32       Chicago Blackhawks            1374 (▲5)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           61% (▼15)
 2       New Jersey Devils             12% (▲5)
 3       New York Rangers (▲2)         11% (▲7)
 4       Washington Capitals           8% (▲3)
 5       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼2)      7% (▲1)
 6       New York Islanders            2%
 7 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         <1%
 7 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1%

Atlantic Division

 1       Boston Bruins                 91% (▲14)
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs           8% (▼10)
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning           1% (▼3)
 4 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
 4 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
 4 (tie) Florida Panthers              <1%
 4 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
 4 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%

Central Division

 1       Dallas Stars                  45% (▼17)
 2       Winnipeg Jets                 34% (▲19)
 3       Minnesota Wild                12% (▼1)
 4       Colorado Avalanche            4% (▼3)
 5       Nashville Predators           3% (▲2)
 6       St. Louis Blues (▼1)          2% (▲1)
 7 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1%
 7 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          36% (▼2)
 2       Seattle Kraken (▲2)           28% (▲14)
 3       Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        17%
 4       Calgary Flames (▼1)           10% (▼6)
 5       Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          8% (▼6)
 6 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            <1%
 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1)          <1%
 6 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             <1% (▼1)

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           98% (▼1)
 2       New Jersey Devils             79% (▲4)
 3       New York Rangers (▲2)         78% (▲14)
 4       Washington Capitals (▼1)      74% (▲1)
 5       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼2)      68% (▼5)
 6       New York Islanders            42% (▼8)
 7       Philadelphia Flyers           3%
 8       Columbus Blue Jackets         <1%

Atlantic Division

 1       Boston Bruins                 >99%
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs           98%
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning           84% (▼3)
 4       Buffalo Sabres                40% (▲11)
 5       Florida Panthers (▲1)         14% (▲3)
 6       Detroit Red Wings (▼1)        11% (▼15)
 7       Ottawa Senators (▼1)          10% (▼1)
 8       Montreal Canadiens            <1% (▼1)

Central Division

 1       Dallas Stars                  96% (▼2)
 2       Winnipeg Jets                 93% (▲8)
 3       Minnesota Wild                77% (▼5)
 4       Colorado Avalanche            54% (▼15)
 5       Nashville Predators (▲1)      48% (▲19)
 6       St. Louis Blues (▼1)          42% (▲9)
 7       Arizona Coyotes               2% (▼11)
 8       Chicago Blackhawks            <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          90% (▲2)
 2       Seattle Kraken (▲3)           84% (▲18)
 3       Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        78% (▲4)
 4       Calgary Flames (▼1)           65% (▼7)
 5       Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          60% (▼9)
 6       Vancouver Canucks             12% (▼8)
 7 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            <1%
 7 (tie) San Jose Sharks               <1% (▼1)

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Boston Bruins                 82% (▲25)
 2 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           6% (▼16)
 2 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1)      6% (▼4)
 4 (tie) Dallas Stars                  1% (▼4)
 4 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      1% (▼1)
 4 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲2)            1%

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Boston Bruins                 19% (▲5)
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1)      9% (▼1)
 3       Carolina Hurricanes (▼1)      8% (▼3)
 4       Dallas Stars                  7% (▼2)
 5 (tie) Minnesota Wild                5%
 5 (tie) New York Rangers (▲2)         5% (▲1)
 5 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲2)            5% (▲1)
 8 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼1)           4%
 8 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲5)        4% (▲1)
 8 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲9)           4% (▲2)
 8 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼3)      4% (▼1)
 8 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲5)     4% (▲1)
 8 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼1)      4%
14 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼7)          3% (▼1)
14 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼1)        3%
14 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼7)      3% (▼1)
17 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼4)       2% (▼1)
17 (tie) New York Islanders            2%
17 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲2)      2% (▲1)
17 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲2)          2% (▲1)
21 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▼2)           1%
21 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼2)         1%
23 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲2)            <1%
23 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲2)          <1%
23 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲2)       <1%
23 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2)    <1%
23 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼4)        <1% (▼1)
23 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲2)       <1%
23 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲2)          <1%
23 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲2)      <1%
23 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲2)          <1%
23 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼4)        <1% (▼1)

 

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – January 1, 2023

Hockey playerThe McDonald NHL Power Ratings reports are back!  After a long hiatus, I’ve returned, and the season looks quite interesting.

Boston is our top-ranked team, with a current score of 1613 rating points, above that “great team” 1600 rating point level.  They are having an amazing season, with a 28-4-4 record.  Surprisingly, two of their overtime losses came in the past week, as they lost 3-2 in a shootout to 24th-ranked Ottawa and 4-3 in overtime to 18th-ranked Buffalo.  But, they also had a 3-1 win over 14th-ranked New Jersey, so we actually gave them a 1 point bump in their rating.  We’re giving them a greater than 99% chance of making the playoffs, a greater than even (57%) chance of winning the President’s Trophy, and a 14% chance of winning the Stanley Cup, even though the season isn’t even half over yet!  But, things can change, so it’ll be interesting to see how the rest of the season plays out.

Carolina is the number 2 ranked team this week, up one position from last week.  They are sitting with 1599 rating points, just one point under the “great team” line.  We bumped them up 7 rating points and one position this week.  Although they had an easy week, they did go 3-0-0, with shutouts in regulation time over bottom-ranked Chicago and 20th-ranked Florida, and a shootout win over 14th-ranked New Jersey.  We’re giving them a 99% chance of making the playoffs, and the second most likely team to win the President’s Trophy (22%) and Stanley Cup (11%).

Toronto is ranked number 3 this week, down from 2nd last week.  They played three games on the road last week, beating 19th-ranked St. Louis in overtime, losing to 26th-ranked Arizona, then bouncing back by beating 16th-ranked Colorado.  We’ve calculated that they’ve got a 98% chance of making the playoffs, and a 10% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.

The surprising Dallas Stars come in 4th place in our rankings this week.  They had an outstanding week, winning all three of their games in regulation time, with victories over 23rd-ranked Nashville, 9th-ranked Minnesota, and 28th-ranked San Jose.  Their impressive showing gave them a 19 point bump in rating points from the boys in the back room, which moved them up from 5th in last week’s rankings.  We’re giving them a 98% chance of making the playoffs and a 9% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.

Rounding out this week’s top 5 is Tampa Bay, who moved into these hallowed heights with a 3-0-0 week, moving them up from 7th in last week’s rankings.  They defeated 29th-ranked Montreal and 26th-ranked Arizona in regulation time, as well as the 8th-ranked New York Rangers in a shootout.  Despite being in the top 5 in our rankings, they are 3rd in the Atlantic Division, behind #1 Boston and #3 Toronto!  What a tough division!

The top performing team this week was the aforementioned Dallas, with their 3-0-0 week and a 19-point leap in rating points.  Stinkers this week included bottom-ranked Chicago, who dropped 20 rating points to an abysmal 1369 score after losing all 4 of this week’s games in regulation time, and Pittsburgh, last week’s #4 who went 0-2-1 and dropped 19 rating points and 2 ranking positions.

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

The top 5

1. Boston Bruins (1613, ▲1)

Record: 28-4-4, 1st in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: >99%
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 57% (▼3)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 14%

Last week: 1-0-2

  • December 27: Lost in SO 3-2 @ Ottawa Senators (24th, 1474)
  • December 28: Won 3-1 @ New Jersey Devils (14th, 1514)
  • December 31: Lost in OT 4-3 vs. Buffalo Sabres (18th, 1501)

Next week:

  • January 2: vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (6th, 1546)
  • January 5: @ Los Angeles Kings (15th, 1513)
  • January 7: @ San Jose Sharks (28th, 1430)
  • January 8: @ Anaheim Ducks (31st, 1383)

2. Carolina Hurricanes ▲1 (1599, ▲7)

Record: 25-6-6, 1st in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 99% (▲1)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 22% (▲6)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 11% (▲1)

Last week: 3-0-0

  • December 27: Won 3-0 vs. Chicago Blackhawks (32nd, 1369)
  • December 30: Won 4-0 vs. Florida Panthers (20th, 1496)
  • January 1: Won in SO 5-4 @ New Jersey Devils (14th, 1514)

Next week:

  • January 3: @ New York Rangers (8th, 1542)
  • January 5: vs. Nashville Predators (23rd, 1482)
  • January 7: @ Columbus Blue Jackets (30th, 1407)

3. Toronto Maple Leafs ▼1 (1594, ▼4)

Record: 23-8-6, 2nd in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 98% (▲1)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 10% (▼2)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▼1)

Last week: 2-1-0

  • December 27: Won in OT 5-4 @ St. Louis Blues (19th, 1497)
  • December 29: Lost 6-3 @ Arizona Coyotes (26th, 1457)
  • December 31: Won 6-2 @ Colorado Avalanche (16th, 1512)

Next week:

  • January 3: vs. St. Louis Blues (19th, 1497)
  • January 5: vs. Seattle Kraken (21st, 1493)
  • January 7: vs. Detroit Red Wings (22nd, 1485)
  • January 8: @ Philadelphia Flyers (27th, 1449)

4. Dallas Stars ▲1 (1571, ▲19)

Record: 23-9-6, 1st in Central Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 98% (▲4)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 5% (▲3)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲2)

Last week: 3-0-0

  • December 27: Won 3-2 @ Nashville Predators (23rd, 1482)
  • December 29: Won 4-1 @ Minnesota Wild (9th, 1540)
  • December 31: Won 5-2 vs. San Jose Sharks (28th, 1430)

Next week:

  • January 3: @ Los Angeles Kings (15th, 1513)
  • January 4: @ Anaheim Ducks (31st, 1383)
  • January 8: vs. Florida Panthers (20th, 1496)

5. Tampa Bay Lightning ▲2 (1548, ▲8)

Record: 23-11-1, 3rd in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 87% (▲8)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 2% (▲1)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 5% (▲1)

Last week: 3-0-0

  • December 28: Won 4-1 vs. Montreal Canadiens (29th, 1409)
  • December 29: Won in SO 2-1 vs. New York Rangers (8th, 1542)
  • December 31: Won 5-3 vs. Arizona Coyotes (26th, 1457)

Next week:

  • January 3: @ Chicago Blackhawks (32nd, 1369)
  • January 4: @ Minnesota Wild (9th, 1540)
  • January 6: @ Winnipeg Jets (13th, 1519)

Overall Ratings

 1       Boston Bruins                 1613 (▲1)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      1599 (▲7)
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      1594 (▼4)
 4       Dallas Stars (▲1)             1571 (▲19)
 5       Tampa Bay Lightning (▲2)      1548 (▲8)
 6 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼2)      1546 (▼19)
 6 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲2)      1546 (▲11)
 8       New York Rangers (▼2)         1542
 9       Minnesota Wild                1540 (▲8)
10       Calgary Flames (▲1)           1531 (▲5)
11       Edmonton Oilers (▲2)          1527 (▲8)
12       New York Islanders (▲2)       1521 (▲4)
13       Winnipeg Jets (▲3)            1519 (▲7)
14       New Jersey Devils (▲3)        1514 (▲4)
15       Los Angeles Kings             1513 (▼2)
16       Colorado Avalanche (▼6)       1512 (▼17)
17       Vegas Golden Knights (▼5)     1511 (▼10)
18       Buffalo Sabres (▲3)           1501 (▲2)
19       St. Louis Blues (▲1)          1497 (▼3)
20       Florida Panthers (▼2)         1496 (▼8)
21       Seattle Kraken (▼2)           1493 (▼8)
22       Detroit Red Wings             1485 (▲2)
23       Nashville Predators           1482 (▲1)
24       Ottawa Senators (▲1)          1474 (▲6)
25       Vancouver Canucks (▼1)        1468 (▼6)
26       Arizona Coyotes               1457 (▲14)
27       Philadelphia Flyers           1449 (▲11)
28       San Jose Sharks               1430 (▼4)
29       Montreal Canadiens            1409 (▼13)
30       Columbus Blue Jackets         1407 (▲2)
31       Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            1383 (▼5)
32       Chicago Blackhawks (▼1)       1369 (▼20)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           76% (▲14)
 2       New Jersey Devils (▲1)        7% (▼1)
 3       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1)      6% (▼12)
 4       Washington Capitals (▲1)      5% (▲1)
 5       New York Rangers (▼1)         4% (▼2)
 6       New York Islanders            2%
 7 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         <1%
 7 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1%

Atlantic Division

 1       Boston Bruins                 77%
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs           18% (▼2)
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning           4% (▲1)
 4 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
 4 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
 4 (tie) Florida Panthers              <1%
 4 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
 4 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%

Central Division

 1       Dallas Stars                  62% (▲20)
 2       Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            15% (▼2)
 3       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           13% (▼2)
 4       Colorado Avalanche (▼2)       7% (▼14)
 5 (tie) Nashville Predators           1% (▼1)
 5 (tie) St. Louis Blues               1% (▼1)
 7 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1%
 7 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          38% (▼4)
 2       Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        17% (▲3)
 3       Calgary Flames (▲1)           16% (▲3)
 4 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          14% (▲4)
 4 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▼2)           14% (▼5)
 6       Vancouver Canucks             1% (▼1)
 7 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 <1%
 7 (tie) San Jose Sharks               <1%

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           99% (▲1)
 2       New Jersey Devils (▲1)        75% (▲1)
 3 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1)      73% (▼14)
 3 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲2)      73% (▲9)
 5       New York Rangers (▼1)         64% (▼3)
 6       New York Islanders            50% (▲2)
 7       Philadelphia Flyers           3% (▲1)
 8       Columbus Blue Jackets         <1%

Atlantic Division

 1       Boston Bruins                 >99%
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs           98% (▲1)
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning           87% (▲8)
 4       Buffalo Sabres                29%
 5       Detroit Red Wings             26% (▲1)
 6 (tie) Florida Panthers              11% (▼8)
 6 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1)          11% (▲3)
 8       Montreal Canadiens            1% (▼3)

Central Division

 1       Dallas Stars                  98% (▲4)
 2       Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            85% (▲5)
 3       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           82% (▲6)
 4       Colorado Avalanche (▼2)       69% (▼13)
 5       St. Louis Blues               33% (▼4)
 6       Nashville Predators           29% (▼1)
 7       Arizona Coyotes               13% (▲4)
 8       Chicago Blackhawks            <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          88% (▼2)
 2       Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        74% (▲3)
 3       Calgary Flames (▲1)           72% (▲5)
 4       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          69% (▲9)
 5       Seattle Kraken (▼3)           66% (▼8)
 6       Vancouver Canucks             20% (▼6)
 7       San Jose Sharks               1% (▼1)
 8       Anaheim Ducks                 <1%

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Boston Bruins                 57% (▼3)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           22% (▲6)
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           10% (▼2)
 4       Dallas Stars (▲1)             5% (▲3)
 5       Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      2% (▲1)
 6 (tie) New Jersey Devils             1%
 6 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼2)      1% (▼2)
 6 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          1%
 6 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 1%

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Boston Bruins                 14%
 2       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      11% (▲1)
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      10% (▼1)
 4       Dallas Stars                  9% (▲2)
 5 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲1)           5%
 5 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲2)      5% (▲1)
 7 (tie) Calgary Flames                4%
 7 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲5)          4% (▲1)
 7 (tie) New York Rangers              4%
 7 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼2)      4% (▼2)
 7 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲5)      4% (▲1)
 7 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲5)            4% (▲1)
13 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼6)       3% (▼1)
13 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        3%
13 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼1)        3%
13 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼6)     3% (▼1)
17 (tie) New York Islanders (▲1)       2%
17 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▼5)           2% (▼1)
19 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           1%
19 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        1%
19 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲1)         1%
19 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲1)      1%
19 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼1)          1% (▼1)
19 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        1%
25 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 <1%
25 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1%
25 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%
25 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         <1%
25 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
25 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%
25 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1%
25 (tie) San Jose Sharks               <1%

 

McDonald CFL Power Ratings – Week 19

CFL logoAfter the third last weekend of the CFL season, unbelievably 8 teams are still in contention for playoff spots!  It should make for an exciting final two weeks!

There were two games on Friday.  The first game saw Montreal head to Ottawa to face the RedBlacks.  In a close game, Montreal beat Ottawa 34-30.  After a high-scoring first half, Ottawa led 24-17, but were held scoreless in the third quarter, while Montreal scored 17 second half points to win the game.  Ottawa had a chance to go ahead late in the game, but quarterback Nick Arbuckle fumbled the ball when he was sacked on the Montreal 39 yard line with 33 seconds left, and Montreal recovered the ball.

The nightcap featured Hamilton travelling to Calgary.  Needing a win to try to prevent a Saskatchewan crossover in the playoffs, Hamilton came through, beating Calgary 35-32.  It was Hamilton’s first win in Calgary since 2004.  In an exciting finish, Calgary took a 32-27 lead on a touchdown with 1:03 left in the game, and on their ensuing possession, Hamilton quickly moved the ball down the field and scored with 11 seconds left to earn the victory.

There were also two games on Saturday.  In the early game, 1st place in the East Toronto travelled to Edmonton to face the 5th place in the West Edmonton.  In a surprisingly close game, Toronto scored 16 4th quarter points to come back to beat Edmonton 28-23.  Toronto scored the winning touchdown with 32 seconds left in the game on a 25 yard run by running back A.J. Ouellette.  Toronto kicker Boris Bede was the star of the game for Toronto as he made all 5 of his field goal attempts, scoring 15 of the Argonauts’ 28 points.  On the Elks side, running back Kevin Brown carried the ball 19 times for 121 yards and a touchdown.

In the last game of the weekend, Winnipeg started their second-string quarterback as they faced British Columbia in Vancouver.  It was a meaningless game for Winnipeg, but very meaningful for BC as they fight with Calgary for 2nd place in the West division and a home playoff game.  In the end, British Columbia defeated Winnipeg 40-32.  In a game with lots of offense, BC scored two pick-6 interceptions to help them to the victory.  On the offensive side of the ball, James Butler rushed 14 times for 104 yards for the Lions, while for Winnipeg, quarterback Dru Brown passed for 325 yards and 3 touchdowns (5 if you count his two interceptions that were returned for touchdowns).  Special teams were exciting as well, with the Bombers’ Janarion Grant returning a punt 94 yards for a touchdown, and 245 total return yards (172 on 5 punt returns and 73 on 4 kickoff returns).  But, he was outdone by the Lions’ Terry Williams who totalled 341 return yards, with 155 on 3 missed field goal returns, one of which was for 90 yards, 152 on 5 kickoff returns, and 34 on 3 punt returns.

Looking at the playoff picture, in the West, Winnipeg has clinched first place, but British Columbia and Calgary are battling it out for second place and a home game in the West Semi-Final.  BC is currently in 2nd spot with an 11-5 record, but the Stampeders are close behind at 10-6.  BC faces bottom-ranked Edmonton next week and top-ranked Winnipeg in the last week, while Calgary has a home-and-home series with struggling Saskatchewan.  We’re giving BC a 90% chance of finishing second.

In the East, 5 teams are still in the hunt for playoff spots in the 4 team division!  Toronto leads with a 10-6 record, and we’re giving them an 80% chance of winning the division.  Montreal is next at 8-8, and they’re the only other team with a chance of winning the East, with a 20% chance.  Hamilton is currently in 3rd with a 6-10 record, but the West’s Saskatchewan still is holding out hope for a cross-over playoff position.  They are also 6-10, but they need to finish with a better record than the 3rd-place East team to cross over.  Finally, Ottawa, at 4-12, still has a chance for a playoff spot.  Hamilton and Ottawa have a home-and-home series to end the season, and Saskatchewan has the same with Calgary.  We’ve calculated that Hamilton has a 77% chance of getting that last spot, followed by Saskatchewan with an 18% chance, and Ottawa at 6% chance.

Week 19 Results

Montreal 34  at Ottawa 30
Hamilton 35  at Calgary 32
Toronto 28  at Edmonton 23
Winnipeg 32  at British Columbia 40

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

There wasn’t much change in our rankings, only Hamilton and Saskatchewan changing spots for 6th and 7th.  Winnipeg remains the top-ranked team, with Calgary the second best, despite trailing 4th-ranked British Columbia in the standings.  Toronto continues to be the top Eastern team, with a very respectable 1546 rating.  Ottawa and Edmonton are battling it out for the worst ranking, with Edmonton currently the worst team with 1401 rating points, but Ottawa is only one rating point ahead at 1402!

 

Ranking Team Rating Record
1 Winnipeg 1624 (▼15) 14-3, 1st West
2 Calgary 1553 (▼17) 10-6, 3rd West
3 Toronto 1546 (▲10) 10-6, 1st East
4 British Columbia 1542 (▲15) 11-5, 2nd West
5 Montreal 1502 (▲12) 8-8, 2nd East
6 (▲1) Hamilton 1488 (▲18) 6-10, 3rd East
7 (▼1) Saskatchewan 1473 6-10, 4th West
8 Ottawa 1402 (▼11) 4-12, 4th East
9 Edmonton 1401 (▼10) 4-13, 5th West

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg remains the favourite to win the Grey Cup, with a 40% chance.  Their chances dropped 3% from last week based on their loss to BC this weekend, although they did start their second-string quarterback.  But, if 1st-stringer Zach Collaros goes down, they’ll need to rely on their backup.  Toronto is the favourite from the East, now with a 24% chance, up 1% from last week.  Grey Cup host Saskatchewan continues to see their hopes fade, with only a 3% chance of making the game, and a 1% chance of winning it.

Overall, there’s a 61% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, down 4% from last week’s report.  We’ve also determined that there’s a 18% chance of 4th-place Saskatchewan crossing over to the East for the playoffs (down 15% from last week), versus no chance of an Eastern team crossing over to the West (same as last week).

Grey Cup Ranking Team Rating Win Grey Cup
1 Winnipeg 1624 40% (▼3)
2 Toronto 1546 24% (▲1)
3 (▲1) Montreal 1502 11% (▲2)
4 (▲1) British Columbia 1542 10% (▲3)
5 (▼2) Calgary 1553 9% (▼3)
6 Hamilton 1488 5% (▲2)
7 Saskatchewan 1473 1% (▼1)
8 Ottawa 1402 <1%
9 Edmonton 1401 —

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.

Team Rating Make Playoffs Host Playoff Game Win Division Make Division Final Make Grey Cup Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg
14-3,
1st in West		 1624 ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ 65% 40%
Toronto
10-6,
1st in East		 1546 ✔ ✔ 80% 92% 56% 24%
Montreal
8-8,
2nd in East		 1502 ✔ ✔ 20% 66% 28% 11%
British Columbia
11-5,
2nd in West		 1542 ✔ 90% — 54% 18% 10%
Calgary
10-6,
3rd in West		 1553 ✔ 10% — 46% 16% 9%
Hamilton
6-10,
3rd in East		 1488 77% — — 32% 12% 5%
Saskatchewan
6-10,
4th in West		 1473 18% — — 7% 3% 1%
Ottawa
4-12,
4th in East		 1402 6% — — 2% 1% <1%
Edmonton
4-13,
5th in West		 1401 — — — — — —

Week 20 Game Predictions

Friday’s games

  • Ottawa (31%) at Hamilton (68%)
  • British Columbia (62%) at Edmonton (37%)

Saturday’s games

  • Toronto (49%) at Montreal (50%)
  • Calgary (53%) at Saskatchewan (46%)

McDonald CFL Power Ratings – Week 18

CFL logoThanksgiving weekend!  While the rest of us were eating turkey, 8 of the CFL teams were playing football.  I guess Calgary was probably eating turkey, too, or maybe getting ready for the stretch run.  With unseasonably warm temperatures, it doesn’t quite feel like the regular season is nearing an end, but there’s just three weeks left!

The weekend started with Friday Night Football, with Saskatchewan travelling to Hamilton.  This game was a must-win for both teams, as they are both battling for the last playoff spot in the East, with Saskatchewan hoping for the cross-over from the West division.  In an unimpressive outing for both teams, Hamilton beat Saskatchewan 18-14.  The outstanding offensive player of the game was Hamilton’s running back Wes Hills, who amassed 132 yards on 25 carries.  Roughriders QB Cody Fajardo completed 24 of 31 passes for 259 yards and two touchdowns, despite being sacked seven times!  He also led the Riders with 22 (yes, that’s right, only 22) yards rushing.  The win sees Hamilton’s chances of making the playoffs increase from 32% to 56%, while Saskatchewan’s decreased from 64% to 33%.

Saturday saw two games, with the first featuring British Columbia playing in Toronto.  In an exciting finish, Toronto defeated BC 23-20.  With just under 3 minutes to play, Toronto scored a touchdown to take the lead 23-20.  In response, BC marched down the field and, with about a minute and a half left, gave kicker Sean Whyte the opportunity to tie the game with a 41 yard field goal, but he hit the upright!  Toronto then ran out the clock to seal the victory.  Toronto quarterback McLead Bethel-Thompson passed for 352 yards and a touchdown, completing 27 of his 40 passing attempts.

In the nightcap, Edmonton faced a tough battle as they headed to Winnipeg to face the top team in the league.  In a completely expected result, Winnipeg trounced Edmonton 48-11.  With the win, Winnipeg clinched first place in the West, and Edmonton has now been eliminated from playoff contention.  Winnipeg scored touchdowns on their first four possessions of the game.  Three Winnipeg quarterbacks passed for touchdowns, with Zach Collaros throwing 3, Dur Brown throwing one for 65 yards, and Dakota Prukop getting the other for 24 yards.

The final game of the weekend took place on Thanksgiving Monday, with Ottawa playing in Montreal.  In a surprise, Ottawa beat Montreal 24-18.  For Ottawa, quarterback Nick Arbuckle completed 28 of his 32 passes for 229 yards; his Montreal counterpart Trevor Harris completed 30 of 38 of his own for 338 yards and a touchdown.  Ottawa running back Caleb Evans carried the ball 7 times, amassing a total of 11 yards, with his longest run being 3 yards, but he did score both of Ottawa’s touchdowns!

Week 18 Results

Saskatchewan 14  at Hamilton 18
British Columbia 20  at Toronto 23
Edmonton 11  at Winnipeg 48
Ottawa 24  at Montreal 18

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

Winnipeg remains at the top of the McDonald CFL Power Ratings, and they look exceptionally powerful heading into the last 3 weekends of the season, with a huge 69 rating point lead over 2nd-best Calgary.  Toronto is the top team in the East, passing British Columbia to take over 3rd spot in the rankings.  With Ottawa’s win and Edmonton’s loss, Edmonton is now seen as the weakest team in the league.  I should stop bashing the East, as 2 of the bottom 4 teams come from the West.

 

Ranking Team Rating Record
1 Winnipeg 1639 (▲4) 14-2, 1st West
2 Calgary 1570 10-5, T-2nd West
3 (▲1) Toronto 1536 (▲11) 9-6, 1st East
4 (▼1) British Columbia 1527 (▼11) 10-5, T-2nd West
5 Montreal 1490 (▼18) 7-8, 2nd East
6 Saskatchewan 1473 (▼12) 6-10, 4th West
7 Hamilton 1470 (▲12) 5-10, 3rd East
8 (▲1) Ottawa 1413 (▲18) 4-11, 4th East
9 (▼1) Edmonton 1411 (▼4) 4-12, 5th West

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg continues to be the McDonald CFL Power Ratings favourite to win the Grey Cup, as we’re now giving them a 43% chance of winning it all.  They’ve clinched first place in the West, giving them a playoff bye and home field advantage in the West final.  Top choice from the East is Toronto, who we’re giving a 23% chance of winning the Grey Cup.  We’re giving them an 85% chance of winning the East.

Saskatchewan’s chances continue to plummet, as we’re now only giving them a 2% chance of winning it.  Too bad, as the game is being held in Regina this year.  With their loss to Hamilton this week, their only chance of making the playoffs now is with the crossover, meaning they’ll need to finish with a better record than the third place team in the East.  The chances of that happening dropped from 65% to 33%; they are also the only team that could get the crossover.

Overall, there’s a 65% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, down 1% from last week’s report.  We’ve also determined that there’s a 33% chance of a 4th-place Western team crossing over to the East for the playoffs (down 32% from last week), versus no chance of an Eastern team crossing over to the West (same as last week).

 

Grey Cup Ranking Team Rating Win Grey Cup
1 Winnipeg 1639 43% (▲2)
2 Toronto 1536 23% (▲4)
3 (▲1) Calgary 1570 12% (▲1)
4 (▼1) Montreal 1490 9% (▼4)
5 British Columbia 1527 7% (▼2)
6 (▲1) Hamilton 1470 3% (▲1)
7 (▼1) Saskatchewan 1473 2% (▼3)
8 Ottawa 1413 <1%
9 (▼1) Edmonton 1411 —

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.

Team Rating Make Playoffs Host Playoff Game Win Division Make Division Final Make Grey Cup Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg
14-2,
1st in West		 1639 ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ 67% 43%
Toronto
9-6,
1st in East		 1536 ✔ ✔ 85% 94% 58% 23%
Calgary
10-5,
T-2nd in West		 1570 ✔ 58% — 57% 20% 12%
Montreal
7-8,
2nd in East		 1490 99% 95% 15% 63% 26% 9%
British Columbia
10-5,
T-2nd in West		 1527 ✔ 42% — 43% 13% 7%
Hamilton
5-10,
3rd in East		 1470 56% 2% — 24% 9% 3%
Saskatchewan
6-10,
4th in West		 1473 33% — — 14% 5% 2%
Ottawa
4-11,
4th in East		 1413 12% 3% — 5% 2% <1%
Edmonton
4-12,
5th in West		 1411 — — — — — —

Week 19 Game Predictions

Friday: Montreal (53%) at Ottawa (46%)
Friday: Hamilton (43%) at Calgary (56%)
Saturday: Toronto (60%) at Edmonton (39%)
Saturday: Winnipeg (58%) at British Columbia (41%)

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – Preseason Predictions!!!

Hockey playerAh, the NHL season is about to start!  The team at McDonald NHL Power Ratings has updated our models and run our simulations, and we’ve come up with our predictions for the upcoming season.

Remember, teams have changed from last year — players have moved, retired, or come into the league, and players are older (none of the players this year are younger than last year — go figure!).  As a result, we’ve added uncertainty into our models; that results in the initial ratings being lower than they might otherwise be, but they’ll eventually sort themselves out.  Our experience has been that after the first 10 games, our ratings have adjusted to the new reality.

Last year, Colorado was our top-ranked team almost the entire year.  Perhaps unsurprisingly, they ended up winning the Stanley Cup!  But, there’s 32 teams, and anything can happen.  Now, having said that, our favourite to win the Stanley Cup this year is … Colorado!  They are both our top-ranked team, and one of the three teams that we think have the best chance of winning the Stanley Cup.  The other two teams are Carolina and Toronto.  Yes, Toronto!  We really should update our models to automatically give the Leafs no chance of winning, but maybe this is the year….  Hah — that’s what I said last year, and look what happened (they lost in the first round of the playoffs to defending champion and eventual runner-up Tampa Bay)!  Anyways, Colorado, Carolina, and Toronto all have a 6% chance of winning the Cup this year.  Those same three teams are also favourites to win the President’s Trophy as the team with the best record in the regular season, all with a 7% chance.

Looking at just the Canadian teams, of course Toronto is the most likely to bring the Cup home at 6%, but they’re closely followed by Calgary (5%) and Edmonton (4%).  Overall, we’ve calculated that there’s a 24.3% chance of a Canadian team winning it, which is slightly better than the percentage of Canadian teams in the NHL (7 of 32 teams, or 21.9%).

Anyways, here’s the rankings and ratings.

Overall Ratings

 1       Colorado Avalanche            1551
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs           1549
 3       Carolina Hurricanes           1547
 4       Calgary Flames                1543
 5 (tie) Florida Panthers              1541
 5 (tie) St. Louis Blues               1541
 7       Minnesota Wild                1538
 8       New York Rangers              1532
 9       Edmonton Oilers               1531
10 (tie) Boston Bruins                 1530
10 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           1530
12       Pittsburgh Penguins           1520
13       Los Angeles Kings             1517
14       Washington Capitals           1515
15       Vancouver Canucks             1513
16       Vegas Golden Knights          1508
17       Nashville Predators           1506
18       Dallas Stars                  1505
19       New York Islanders            1504
20       Winnipeg Jets                 1503
21       Buffalo Sabres                1484
22       Ottawa Senators               1476
23       Columbus Blue Jackets         1475
24       Detroit Red Wings             1466
25       San Jose Sharks               1465
26       Anaheim Ducks                 1460
27       Seattle Kraken                1454
28       Arizona Coyotes               1450
29       Chicago Blackhawks            1447
30       New Jersey Devils             1446
31       Philadelphia Flyers           1442
32       Montreal Canadiens            1441

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           25%
 2       New York Rangers              19%
 3       Pittsburgh Penguins           16%
 4       Washington Capitals           14%
 5       New York Islanders            12%
 6       Columbus Blue Jackets         7%
 7       New Jersey Devils             4%
 8       Philadelphia Flyers           3%

Atlantic Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           24%
 2       Florida Panthers              21%
 3 (tie) Boston Bruins                 17%
 3 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           17%
 5       Buffalo Sabres                7%
 6       Ottawa Senators               6%
 7       Detroit Red Wings             5%
 8       Montreal Canadiens            3%

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            24%
 2       St. Louis Blues               20%
 3       Minnesota Wild                19%
 4 (tie) Dallas Stars                  10%
 4 (tie) Nashville Predators           10%
 4 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 10%
 7 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               3%
 7 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            3%

Pacific Division

 1       Calgary Flames                24%
 2       Edmonton Oilers               19%
 3       Los Angeles Kings             15%
 4       Vancouver Canucks             14%
 5       Vegas Golden Knights          13%
 6 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 5%
 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks               5%
 8       Seattle Kraken                4%

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           71%
 2       New York Rangers              65%
 3       Pittsburgh Penguins           60%
 4       Washington Capitals           58%
 5       New York Islanders            52%
 6       Columbus Blue Jackets         38%
 7       New Jersey Devils             26%
 8       Philadelphia Flyers           25%

Atlantic Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           72%
 2       Florida Panthers              69%
 3 (tie) Boston Bruins                 63%
 3 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           63%
 5       Buffalo Sabres                41%
 6       Ottawa Senators               39%
 7       Detroit Red Wings             34%
 8       Montreal Canadiens            24%

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            71%
 2       St. Louis Blues               67%
 3       Minnesota Wild                66%
 4 (tie) Dallas Stars                  51%
 4 (tie) Nashville Predators           51%
 6       Winnipeg Jets                 50%
 7       Arizona Coyotes               27%
 8       Chicago Blackhawks            25%

Pacific Division

 1       Calgary Flames                69%
 2       Edmonton Oilers               64%
 3       Los Angeles Kings             57%
 4       Vancouver Canucks             56%
 5       Vegas Golden Knights          53%
 6       San Jose Sharks               33%
 7       Anaheim Ducks                 31%
 8       Seattle Kraken                29%

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           7%
 1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            7%
 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           7%
 4 (tie) Calgary Flames                6%
 4 (tie) Florida Panthers              6%
 4 (tie) Minnesota Wild                6%
 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues               6%
 8 (tie) Boston Bruins                 5%
 8 (tie) Edmonton Oilers               5%
 8 (tie) New York Rangers              5%
 8 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           5%
12       Pittsburgh Penguins           4%
13 (tie) Dallas Stars                  3%
13 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             3%
13 (tie) New York Islanders            3%
13 (tie) Nashville Predators           3%
13 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             3%
13 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          3%
13 (tie) Washington Capitals           3%
20       Winnipeg Jets                 2%
21 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 1%
21 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               1%
21 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                1%
21 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            1%
21 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         1%
21 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             1%
21 (tie) Ottawa Senators               1%
21 (tie) San Jose Sharks               1%
21 (tie) Seattle Kraken                1%
30 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
30 (tie) New Jersey Devils             <1%
30 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1%

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           6%
 1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            6%
 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           6%
 4 (tie) Calgary Flames                5%
 4 (tie) Florida Panthers              5%
 4 (tie) Minnesota Wild                5%
 4 (tie) New York Rangers              5%
 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues               5%
 9 (tie) Boston Bruins                 4%
 9 (tie) Edmonton Oilers               4%
 9 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             4%
 9 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins           4%
 9 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           4%
14 (tie) Dallas Stars                  3%
14 (tie) New York Islanders            3%
14 (tie) Nashville Predators           3%
14 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             3%
14 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          3%
14 (tie) Washington Capitals           3%
14 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 3%
21 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                2%
21 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         2%
21 (tie) Ottawa Senators               2%
24 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 1%
24 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               1%
24 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            1%
24 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             1%
24 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            1%
24 (tie) New Jersey Devils             1%
24 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           1%
24 (tie) San Jose Sharks               1%
24 (tie) Seattle Kraken                1%

 

McDonald CFL Power Ratings – Week 17

CFL logoI haven’t caught up with my CFL power rating reports, so I’m just going to have very pruned-down reports until I’m caught up!

Friday: Winnipeg defeat Saskatchewan, again, 31-13
Friday: Ottawa continues dismal season, losing 34-19 to British Columbia
Saturday: Edmonton continues dismal season, losing 25-18 to Montreal
Saturday: Toronto scores two rouges, but loses to Calgary 29-2

Week 17 Results

Saskatchewan 13  at Winnipeg 31
Ottawa 19  at British Columbia 34
Montreal 25  at Edmonton 18
Toronto 2 at Calgary 29

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

Ranking Team Rating Record
1 Winnipeg 1635 (▲6) 13-2, 1st West
2 Calgary 1570 (▲10) 10-5, T-2nd West
3 (▲1) British Columbia 1538 (▲7) 10-4, T-2nd West
4 (▼1) Toronto 1525 (▼10) 8-6, 1st East
5 Montreal 1508 (▲12) 7-7, 2nd East
6 Saskatchewan 1485 (▼6) 6-9, 4th West
7 Hamilton 1458 4-10, 3rd East
8 Edmonton 1415 (▼12) 4-11, 5th West
9 Ottawa 1395 (▼6) 3-11, 4th East

Grey Cup Predictions

Overall, there’s a 66% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, the same as last week’s report.  We’ve also determined that there’s a 65% chance of a 4th-place Western team crossing over to the East for the playoffs (down 6% from last week), versus no chance of an Eastern team crossing over to the West (same as last week).

Grey Cup Ranking Team Rating Win Grey Cup
1 Winnipeg 1635 41% (▲1)
2 Toronto 1525 19% (▼4)
3 Montreal 1508 13% (▲3)
4 (▼1) Calgary 1570 11% (▲1)
5 British Columbia 1538 9%
6 Saskatchewan 1485 5%
7 Hamilton 1458 2% (▲1)
T-8 Ottawa 1395 <1%
T-8 Edmonton 1415 <1%

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.

Team Rating Make Playoffs Host Playoff Game Win Division Make Division Final Make Grey Cup Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg
13-2,
1st in West		 1635 ✔ >99% 94% 98% 64% 41%
Toronto
8-6,
1st in East		 1525 ✔ >99% 72% 89% 50% 19%
Montreal
7-7,
2nd in East		 1508 >99% 99% 28% 70% 34% 13%
Calgary
10-5,
T-2nd in West		 1570 ✔ 42% <1% 53% 19% 11%
British Columbia
10-4,
T-2nd in West		 1538 ✔ 58% 6% 49% 17% 9%
Saskatchewan
6-9,
4th in West		 1485 64% — — 27% 11% 5%
Hamilton
4-10,
3rd in East		 1458 32% <1% <1% 13% 5% 2%
Ottawa
3-11,
4th in East		 1395 4% 1% — 1% <1% <1%
Edmonton
4-11,
5th in West		 1415 <1% — — <1% <1% <1%

Week 18 Game Predictions

Friday: Saskatchewan (47%) at Hamilton (52%)
Saturday: British Columbia (45%) at Toronto (54%)
Saturday: Edmonton (17%) at Winnipeg (82%)
Monday: Ottawa (28%) at Montreal (71%)

McDonald CFL Power Ratings – Week 16

CFL logoI haven’t caught up with my CFL power rating reports, so I’m just going to have very pruned-down reports until I’m caught up!

Friday: Montreal defeats Hamilton 23-16
Saturday: Toronto clinch playoff spot by thumping Ottawa 45-15
Saturday: Calgary gets revenge on BC for last week’s OT loss, winning 25-11

Week 16 Results

Hamilton 16  at Montreal 23
Toronto 45  at Ottawa 15
Calgary 25  at British Columbia 11

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

Ranking Team Rating Record
1 Winnipeg 1629 12-2, 1st West
2 Calgary 1560 (▲14) 9-5, T-2nd West
3 (▲1) Toronto 1535 (▲10) 8-5, 1st East
4 (▼1) British Columbia 1531 (▼14) 9-4, T-2nd West
5 (▲1) Montreal 1496 (▲10) 6-7, 2nd East
6 (▼1) Saskatchewan 1491 6-8, 4th West
7 Hamilton 1458 (▼10) 4-10, 3rd East
8 Edmonton 1427 4-10, 5th West
9 Ottawa 1401 (▼10) 3-10, 4th East

Grey Cup Predictions

Overall, there’s a 66% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, the same as last week’s report.  We’ve also determined that there’s a 71% chance of a 4th-place Western team crossing over to the East for the playoffs (up 7% from last week), versus no chance of an Eastern team crossing over to the West (down 1% from last week).

Grey Cup Ranking Team Rating Win Grey Cup
1 Winnipeg 1629 40%
2 Toronto 1535 23% (▲2)
T-3 (▲1) Calgary 1560 10% (▲1)
T-3 (▲1) Montreal 1496 10% (▲1)
5 (▼2) British Columbia 1531 9% (▼3)
6 Saskatchewan 1491 5%
7 Hamilton 1458 1% (▼2)
T-8 Ottawa 1401 <1% (▼1)
T-8 (▲1) Edmonton 1427 <1%

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.

Team Rating Make Playoffs Host Playoff Game Win Division Make Division Final Make Grey Cup Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg
12-2,
1st in West		 1629 ✔ >99% 94% 97% 64% 40%
Toronto
8-5,
1st in East		 1535 ✔ >99% 82% 92% 55% 23%
Calgary
9-5,
T-2nd in West		 1560 ✔ 39% <1% 53% 19% 10%
Montreal
6-7,
2nd in East		 1496 96% 94% 18% 62% 27% 10%
British Columbia
9-4,
T-2nd in West		 1531 ✔ 61% 6% 50% 17% 9%
Saskatchewan
6-8,
4th in West		 1491 69% <1% — 31% 12% 5%
Hamilton
4-10,
3rd in East		 1458 25% 2% <1% 11% 4% 1%
Ottawa
3-10,
4th in East		 1401 7% 4% <1% 3% 1% <1%
Edmonton
4-10,
5th in West		 1427 2% — — 1% <1% <1%

Week 17 Game Predictions

Friday: Saskatchewan (25%) at Winnipeg (74%)
Friday: Ottawa (26%) at British Columbia (73%)
Saturday: Montreal (52%) at Edmonton (47%)
Saturday: Toronto (39%) at Calgary (60%)

McDonald CFL Power Ratings – Week 15

CFL logoI haven’t caught up with my CFL power rating reports, so I’m just going to have very pruned-down reports until I’m caught up!

Friday: Edmonton squeak by Saskatchewan 26-24, first win at Mosaic Stadium since 2015
Saturday: Hamilton surprises Winnipeg 48-31
Saturday: British Columbia defeats Calgary 31-29 in overtime

Week 15 Results

Edmonton 26  at Saskatchewan 24
Winnipeg 31  at Hamilton 48
British Columbia 31  at Calgary 29 (OT)

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

Ranking Team Rating Record
1 Winnipeg 1629 (▼17) 12-2, 1st West
2 Calgary 1546 (▼15) 8-5, 3rd West
3 British Columbia 1545 (▲16) 9-3, 2nd West
4 Toronto 1525 7-5, 1st East
5 Saskatchewan 1491 (▼17) 6-8, 4th West
6 Montreal 1486 5-7, 2nd East
7 Hamilton 1468 (▲18) 4-9, 3rd East
8 Edmonton 1427 (▲18) 4-10, 5th West
9 Ottawa 1411 3-9, 4th East

Grey Cup Predictions

Overall, there’s a 66% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, down 4% from last week’s report.  We’ve also determined that there’s a 64% chance of a 4th-place Western team crossing over to the East for the playoffs (down 23% from last week), versus less than a 1% chance of an Eastern team crossing over to the West (same as last week).

Grey Cup Ranking Team Rating Win Grey Cup
1 Winnipeg 1629 40% (▼4)
2 Toronto 1525 21% (▲1)
3 (▲1) British Columbia 1545 12% (▲4)
T-4 Montreal 1486 9% (▲1)
T-4 (▼1) Calgary 1546 9% (▼2)
6 Saskatchewan 1491 5% (▼2)
7 Hamilton 1468 3% (▲2)
8 (▼1) Ottawa 1411 1%
9 Edmonton 1427 <1%

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.

Team Rating Make Playoffs Host Playoff Game Win Division Make Division Final Make Grey Cup Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg
12-2,
1st in West		 1629 ✔ >99% 89% 96% 62% 40%
Toronto
7-5,
1st in East		 1525 >99% 99% 81% 91% 54% 21%
British Columbia
9-3,
2nd in West		 1545 >99% 81% 11% 58% 22% 12%
Montreal
5-7,
2nd in East		 1486 83% 72% 18% 53% 24% 9%
Calgary
8-5,
3rd in West		 1546 >99% 19% <1% 46% 16% 9%
Saskatchewan
6-8,
4th in West		 1491 63% 55% — 28% 11% 5%
Hamilton
4-9,
3rd in East		 1468 39% 20% <1% 20% 8% 3%
Ottawa
3-9,
4th in East		 1411 14% 9% 1% 7% 3% 1%
Edmonton
4-10,
5th in West		 1427 2% — — 1% <1% <1%

Week 16 Game Predictions

Friday: Hamilton (40%) at Montreal (59%)
Saturday: Toronto (58%) at Ottawa (41%)
Saturday: Calgary (43%) at British Columbia (56%)

McDonald CFL Power Ratings – Week 14

CFL logoI haven’t caught up with my CFL power rating reports, so I’m just going to have very pruned-down reports until I’m caught up!

Friday: Montreal defeat British Columbia 31-10
Saturday: Toronto defeat Ottawa 24-19
Saturday: Winnipeg thump Saskatchewan 54-20 in Banjo Bowl
Saturday: Calgary doubles Edmonton 56-28 in Battle of Alberta rematch

Week 14 Results

British Columbia 10  at Montreal 31
Toronto 24  at Ottawa 19
Saskatchewan 20  at Winnipeg 54
Calgary 56  at Edmonton 28

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

Ranking Team Rating Record
1 Winnipeg 1646 (▲7) 12-1, 1st West
2 Calgary 1561 (▲10) 8-4, T-2nd West
3 British Columbia 1529 (▼13) 8-3, T-2nd West
4 (▲1) Toronto 1525 (▲11) 7-5, 1st East
5 (▼1) Saskatchewan 1508 (▼7) 6-7, 4th West
6 Montreal 1486 (▲13) 5-7, 2nd East
7 Hamilton 1450 3-9, T-3rd East
8 Ottawa 1411 (▼11) 3-9, T-3rd East
9 Edmonton 1409 (▼9) 3-10, 5th West

Grey Cup Predictions

Overall, there’s a 70% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, down 1% from last week’s report.  We’ve also determined that there’s an 87% chance of a 4th-place Western team crossing over to the East for the playoffs (down 3% from last week), versus less than a 1% chance of an Eastern team crossing over to the West (same as last week).

Grey Cup Ranking Team Rating Win Grey Cup
1 Winnipeg 1646 44% (▲2)
2 Toronto 1525 20% (▲2)
3 (▲1) Calgary 1561 11% (▲1)
T-4 (▲2) Montreal 1486 8% (▲1)
T-4 (▼1) British Columbia 1529 8% (▼3)
6 (▼1) Saskatchewan 1508 7% (▼1)
T-7 (▲1) Hamilton 1450 1%
T-7 Ottawa 1411 1% (▼1)
9 Edmonton 1409 <1%

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.

Team Rating Make Playoffs Host Playoff Game Win Division Make Division Final Make Grey Cup Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg
12-1,
1st in West		 1646 ✔ >99% 96% 99% 67% 44%
Toronto
7-5,
1st in East		 1525 99% 99% 81% 91% 53% 20%
Calgary
8-4,
T-2nd in West		 1561 >99% 49% <1% 54% 19% 11%
Montreal
5-7,
2nd in East		 1486 84% 79% 19% 54% 24% 8%
British Columbia
8-3,
T-2nd in West		 1529 >99% 51% 3% 47% 15% 8%
Saskatchewan
6-7,
4th in West		 1508 86% 1% — 40% 16% 7%
Hamilton
3-9,
T-3rd in East		 1450 17% 11% <1% 9% 3% 1%
Ottawa
3-9,
T-3rd in East		 1411 13% 11% <1% 7% 2% 1%
Edmonton
3-10,
5th in West		 1409 1% <1% — <1% <1% <1%

Week 15 Game Predictions

Edmonton (30%) at Saskatchewan (69%)
Winnipeg (69%) at Hamilton (30%)
British Columbia (38%) at Calgary (61%)

McDonald CFL Power Ratings – Week 13

CFL logoI’ve been away for a few weeks, on a transatlantic cruise from Southampton, England to New York.  The cruise was great, but the internet access on the boat was horrendous, and as a result, I have fallen behind on my CFL Power Ratings reports.  Apparently, the boys in the back room have been goofing off while I was away! 🙂  Anyways, I’m back now, and am slowly working to catch up on the reports.  Here’s the report for Week 13, better late than never!

It was Labour Day weekend in Canada, and that means classic confrontations!

On Friday, Ottawa, who has pretty much stunk all year, visited Montreal to play the Alouettes.  In a surprise, Ottawa defeated Montreal 38-24 on the road.  Ottawa quarterback Nick Arbuckle, despite completing only 20 of his 31 passes, threw for a total of 313 yards and a touchdown.  His favourite receiver in this game was Jaelon Acklin, who caught 7 passes for 159 yards.  The Ottawa defense came up big, forcing four turnovers, including a fumble that was returned for a touchdown.

There were no games on Saturday, but Sunday featured the Labour Day Classic in Regina, as Saskatchewan hosted their prairie rivals, the Winnipeg Blue Bombers.  In a low-scoring, close game, Winnipeg beat Saskatchewan 20-18.  The Riders usually play well in their biggest game of the regular season, but it wasn’t enough to defeat the league’s-best Bombers.  Winnipeg kicker Marc Liegghio booted a 55-yard field goal with 3 minutes left to take the lead, and a Winnipeg interception at their own 14 yard line sealed the win for the Bombers.

Labour Day Monday saw a doubleheader being played.  In the first game, Toronto headed to Hamilton to take on the Ticats.  Toronto hasn’t won the Labour Day clash in ten years, but they changed that, as Toronto rolled over Hamilton 28-8.  It might have been expected, as Hamilton’s first- and second-string quarterbacks were both unavailable due to injury.  The game was knotted at 8 after the first half, but Toronto held Hamilton scoreless in the second half, and scored two 4th-quarter touchdowns to put the game away.

The final game of the weekend saw hapless Edmonton head south to Calgary to face the Stampeders.  In the Battle of Alberta, Calgary beat Edmonton 26-18.  The game was much closer than expected, with Edmonton leading 8-7 at the half, but 15 Stampeder points in the 3rd quarter put Calgary in front to stay.

Week 13 Results

Ottawa 38  at Montreal 24
Winnipeg 20  at Saskatchewan 18
Toronto 28  at Hamilton 8
Edmonton 18  at Calgary 26

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

There was very little change in the rankings this week, although with Ottawa’s surprising win over Montreal, they’ve moved out of the lowest spot in our rankings; that dishonour is now held by Edmonton.  The top 4 teams continue to be from the West, with Winnipeg by far the strongest team with their 11-1 record.  Toronto is the top-ranked team in the East, and the only Eastern team with a rating above the average of 1500.

Ranking Team Rating Record
1 Winnipeg 1639 (▲11) 11-1, 1st West
2 Calgary 1551 (▲7) 7-4, 3rd West
3 British Columbia 1542 8-2, 2nd West
4 Saskatchewan 1515 (▼11) 6-6, 4th West
5 Toronto 1514 (▲11) 6-5, 1st East
6 Montreal 1473 (▼17) 4-7, 2nd East
7 Hamilton 1450 (▼13) 3-9, T-3rd East
8 (▲1) Ottawa 1422 (▲17) 3-8, T-3rd East
9 (▼1) Edmonton 1418 (▼7) 3-9, 5th West

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg remains our favourite to win the Grey Cup; the boys in the back room have now calculated that they have a 42% chance of winning it!  They clinched a playoff spot this week, the first and only team to do so.

Toronto is our second favourite to win the Cup; being the top team in the East really increases the chances of making it to the final, and anything can happen in the Grey Cup game!  With their loss to lowly Ottawa, Montreal took a big drop, down from 11% chance to 7%.  And lowly Ottawa, with their big win, have actually moved up to the 7th-favourite, moving ahead of Hamilton who they are currently tied with, although the RedBlacks do have a game in hand.

Overall, there’s a 71% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, the same as last week’s report.  We’ve also determined that there’s a 90% chance of a 4th-place Western team crossing over to the East for the playoffs (same as last week), versus less than a 1% chance of an Eastern team crossing over to the West (same as last week).

Grey Cup Ranking Team Rating Win Grey Cup
1 Winnipeg 1639 42% (▲3)
2 Toronto 1514 18% (▲3)
3 British Columbia 1542 11% (▼1)
4 (▲1) Calgary 1551 10%
5 (▲1) Saskatchewan 1515 8%
6 (▼2) Montreal 1473 7% (▼4)
7 (▲1) Ottawa 1422 2% (▲1)
8 (▼1) Hamilton 1450 1% (▼2)
9 Edmonton 1418 <1%

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.

Team Rating Make Playoffs Host Playoff Game Win Division Make Division Final Make Grey Cup Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg
11-1,
1st in West		 1639 ✔ >99% 91% 97% 64% 42%
Toronto
6-5,
1st in East		 1514 96% 95% 77% 87% 50% 18%
British Columbia
8-2,
2nd in West		 1542 >99% 67% 9% 54% 19% 11%
Calgary
7-4,
3rd in West		 1551 >99% 32% <1% 50% 18% 10%
Saskatchewan
6-6,
4th in West		 1515 88% 1% <1% 42% 18% 8%
Montreal
4-7,
2nd in East		 1473 68% 64% 17% 43% 20% 7%
Ottawa
3-8,
T-3rd in East		 1422 27% 25% 5% 16% 7% 2%
Hamilton
3-9,
T-3rd in East		 1450 19% 15% <1% 10% 4% 1%
Edmonton
3-9,
5th in West		 1418 2% <1% — 1% <1% <1%

Week 14 Game Predictions

British Columbia (52%) at Montreal (47%)
Toronto (55%) at Ottawa (44%)
Saskatchewan (27%) at Winnipeg (72%)
Calgary (61%) at Edmonton (38%)