To make up for the previous day when there were no overtime games, two games went to overtime last night.  One of those games went to double overtime.  Plus, two series completed!  Clearly, a day filled with 2s.

In the first game of the day yesterday, Nashville defeated Carolina 4 to 3 in double overtime.  That’s the second game in a row that these teams went to double overtime, with Nashville winning both of them.  The series is now tied 2-2, but we’re giving Carolina a 62.3% chance of winning the series, with the teams heading back to Carolina for game 5 tomorrow.

In the second game, Colorado easily handled St. Louis 5-2, sweeping the series in 4 games.  Colorado will keep their spot in the top of the McDonald NHL Power Rankings next time we update them after the first round series have all completed.  They’ll face the winner of the Vegas / Minnesota series.

In the next game, Boston won a hard-fought contest over Washington, 3-1.  Boston never trailed in the game, but it was quite exciting.  Boston wins this series 4 games to 1, and will face the winner of the Islanders / Pittsburgh series.

In the final game of the night, Winnipeg upset Edmonton 5-4 in overtime.  Edmonton clearly dominated the game, leading 4-1 halfway through the third period, but Winnipeg scored 3 times in 3 minutes and 3 seconds to tie the game and send it to overtime.  The last 2 of those goals came just 16 seconds apart.  In overtime, Edmonton had immense pressure on Winnipeg, but Connor Hellebuyck kept his cool and gave Winnipeg a chance, and Nikolaj Ehlers scored to win it for Winnipeg.  The Jets now have a 3-0 series lead, and look for a sweep at home in Game 4.

There are 5 games on the slate tonight.  The Islanders are in Pittsburgh, with that series tied 2-2.  Toronto travels to Montreal to take on the Canadiens, with that series tied 1-1.  Tampa Bay is in Florida, looking to finish off that series which they lead 3-1.  Edmonton is in Winnipeg for the 2nd of back-to-back games, looking to avoid a Jets sweep.  And in the last game of the night, Minnesota visits Vegas, with Vegas holding a 3-1 lead in that series.

Happy Victoria Day!

Yesterday’s Games

Central Division, 1 vs. 4

Carolina 3 at Nashville 4 (2OT)

• Series tied 2-2
• Carolina now has a 62.3% chance of winning the series, down from 78.9%

Series schedule:

• May 17: Nashville 2 at Carolina 5
• May 19: Nashville 0 at Carolina 3
• May 21: Carolina 4 at Nashville 5 (2OT)
• May 23: Carolina 3 at Nashville 4 (2OT)
• May 25: Nashville at Carolina
• May 27: Carolina at Nashville
• May 29: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Carolina has a 62.3% chance of winning (▼16.6)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼35.0)
  • In 6 games: 33.0% (▲8.2)
  • In 7 games: 29.3% (▲10.3)
• Nashville has a 37.7% chance of winning (▲16.6)
  • In 7 games: 18.0% (▲6.2)
  • In 6 games: 19.7% (▲10.5)
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

West Division, 1 vs. 4

Colorado 5 at St. Louis 2

• Colorado wins series 4-0

Series schedule:

• May 17: St. Louis 1 at Colorado 4
• May 19: St. Louis 3 at Colorado 6
• May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 1
• May 23: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 2

East Division, 2 vs. 3

Boston 3 at Washington 1

• Boston wins series 4-1

Series schedule:

• May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 17: Boston 4 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 19: Washington 2 at Boston 3 (2OT)
• May 21: Washington 1 at Boston 4
• May 23: Boston 3 at Washington 1

North Division, 2 vs. 3

Edmonton 4 at Winnipeg 5 (OT)

• Winnipeg leads series 3-0
• Winnipeg now has a 91.9% chance of winning the series, up from 76.9%

Series schedule:

• May 19: Winnipeg 4 at Edmonton 1
• May 21: Winnipeg 1 at Edmonton 0 (OT)
• May 23: Edmonton 4 at Winnipeg 5 (OT)
• May 24: Edmonton at Winnipeg
• May 26: Winnipeg at Edmonton (if necessary)
• May 28: Edmonton at Winnipeg (if necessary)
• May 30: Winnipeg at Edmonton (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Edmonton has a 8.1% chance of winning (▼15.0)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0% (▼7.7)
  • In 7 games: 8.1% (▼7.3)
• Winnipeg has a 91.9% chance of winning (▲15.0)
  • In 7 games: 4.9% (▼4.5)
  • In 6 games: 13.5% (▼5.3)
  • In 5 games: 18.5% (▼1.2)
  • In 4 games: 55.0% (▲25.9)

Today’s Games

East Division, 1 vs. 4

New York Islanders at Pittsburgh

• Series tied 2-2
• Pittsburgh has a 61.7% chance of winning the series

North Division, 1 vs. 4

Toronto at Montreal

• Series tied 1-1
• Toronto has a 67.8% chance of winning the series

Central Division, 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay at Florida

• Tampa Bay leads series 3-1
• Tampa Bay has an 86.5% chance of winning the series

North Division, 2 vs. 3

Edmonton at Winnipeg

• Winnipeg leads series 3-0
• Winnipeg has a 91.9% chance of winning the series

West Division, 2 vs. 3

Minnesota at Vegas

• Vegas leads series 3-1
• Vegas has a 92.1% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Nashville (4th in Central, 64 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: Carolina 62%, Nashville 38%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings: 

• Carolina: 1565, 5th overall
• Nashville: 1506, 15th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Carolina: 5 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Nashville: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Carolina: 5-2-3
• Nashville: 7-2-1

Series schedule:

• May 17: Nashville 2 at Carolina 5
• May 19: Nashville 0 at Carolina 3
• May 21: Carolina 4 at Nashville 5 (2OT)
• May 23: Carolina 3 at Nashville 4 (2OT)
• May 25: Nashville at Carolina
• May 27: Carolina at Nashville
• May 29: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Carolina has a 62.3% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 33.0%
  • In 7 games: 29.3%
• Nashville has a 37.7% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 18.0%
  • In 6 games: 19.7%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Florida (2nd in Central, 79 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Tampa Bay leads series 3-1

Chances of winning: Florida 13%, Tampa Bay 87%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Florida: 1553, 8th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1539, 11th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Florida: 5 regulation wins
• Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Florida: 8-2-0
• Tampa Bay: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

• May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
• May 18: Tampa Bay 3 at Florida 1
• May 20: Florida 6 at Tampa Bay 5 (OT)
• May 22: Florida 2 at Tampa Bay 6
• May 24: Tampa Bay at Florida
• May 26: Florida at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• May 28: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Florida has a 13.5% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 7 games: 13.5%
• Tampa Bay has a 86.5% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 9.8%
  • In 6 games: 29.6%
  • In 5 games: 47.1%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

East Division

Pittsburgh (1st in East, 77 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: Pittsburgh 62%, New York Islanders 38%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Pittsburgh: 1575, 2nd overall
• NY Islanders: 1523, 12th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Pittsburgh: 4 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• New York Islanders: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Pittsburgh: 8-2-0
• New York Islanders: 3-4-3

Series schedule:

• May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
• May 18: New York Islanders 1 at Pittsburgh 2
• May 20: Pittsburgh 5 at New York Islanders 4
• May 22: Pittsburgh 1 at New York Islanders 4
• May 24: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh
• May 26: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
• May 28: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Pittsburgh has a 61.7% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 32.3%
  • In 7 games: 29.4%
• NY Islanders has a 38.3% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 18.5%
  • In 6 games: 19.8%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Washington (2nd in East, 77 pts) vs. Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts)

Boston wins series 4-1

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Washington: 1572, 4th overall
• Boston: 1557, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Washington: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• Boston: 4 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Washington: 7-2-1
• Boston: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

• May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 17: Boston 4 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 19: Washington 2 at Boston 3 (2OT)
• May 21: Washington 1 at Boston 4
• May 23: Boston 3 at Washington 1

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. St. Louis (4th in West, 63 pts)

Colorado wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1616, 1st overall
• St. Louis: 1517, 13th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Colorado: 5 regulation wins
• St. Louis: 3 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Colorado: 8-2-0
• St. Louis: 6-1-3

Series schedule:

• May 17: St. Louis 1 at Colorado 4
• May 19: St. Louis 3 at Colorado 6
• May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 1
• May 23: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 2

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Minnesota (3rd in West, 75 pts)

Vegas leads series 3-1

Chances of winning: Vegas 92%, Minnesota 8%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1575, 2nd overall
• Minnesota: 1550, 9th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Vegas: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins
• Minnesota: 4 regulation wins, 1 shootout win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Vegas: 7-3-0
• Minnesota: 5-3-2

Series schedule:

• May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
• May 18: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 3
• May 20: Vegas 5 at Minnesota 2
• May 22: Vegas 4 at Minnesota 0
• May 24: Minnesota at Vegas
• May 26: Vegas at Minnesota (if necessary)
• May 28: Minnesota at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Vegas has a 92.1% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 63.0%
  • In 6 games: 18.1%
  • In 7 games: 10.9%
• Minnesota has a 7.9% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 7.9%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

North Division

Toronto (1st in North, 77 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Series tied 1-1

Chances of winning: Toronto 68%, Montreal 32%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Toronto: 1560, 6th overall
• Montreal: 1467, 21st overall

Head-to-head this year (10 games):

• Toronto: 6 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Montreal: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Toronto: 7-1-2
• Montreal: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

• May 20: Montreal 3 at Toronto 2
• May 22: Montreal 1 at Toronto 5
• May 24: Toronto at Montreal
• May 25: Toronto at Montreal
• May 27: Montreal at Toronto
• May 29: Toronto at Montreal (if necessary)
• May 31: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Toronto has a 67.8% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 22.7%
  • In 6 games: 23.4%
  • In 7 games: 21.6%
• Montreal has a 32.2% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 11.3%
  • In 6 games: 13.4%
  • In 5 games: 7.5%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Edmonton (2nd in North, 72 pts) vs. Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts)

Winnipeg leads series 3-0

Chances of winning: Edmonton 8%, Winnipeg 92%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Edmonton: 1548, 10th overall
• Winnipeg: 1494, 17th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

• Edmonton: 7 regulation wins
• Winnipeg: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Edmonton: 7-3-0
• Winnipeg: 3-7-0

Series schedule:

• May 19: Winnipeg 4 at Edmonton 1
• May 21: Winnipeg 1 at Edmonton 0 (OT)
• May 23: Edmonton 4 at Winnipeg 5 (OT)
• May 24: Edmonton at Winnipeg
• May 26: Winnipeg at Edmonton (if necessary)
• May 28: Edmonton at Winnipeg (if necessary)
• May 30: Winnipeg at Edmonton (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Edmonton has a 8.1% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 7 games: 8.1%
• Winnipeg has a 91.9% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 4.9%
  • In 6 games: 13.5%
  • In 5 games: 18.5%
  • In 4 games: 55.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the first-round playoffs started.

 1       Colorado Avalanche            21.4%
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins           9.6%
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           9.2%
 4       Carolina Hurricanes           9.0%
 5       Vegas Golden Knights          9.0%
 6       Washington Capitals           8.0%
 7       Florida Panthers              6.5%
 8       Edmonton Oilers               6.1%
 9       Boston Bruins                 5.4%
10       Minnesota Wild                4.3%
11       Tampa Bay Lightning           4.1%
12       New York Islanders            2.2%
13       Nashville Predators           1.7%
14       St. Louis Blues               1.6%
15       Winnipeg Jets                 1.3%
16       Montreal Canadiens            0.7%

 

For the first time during this year’s playoffs, no game went into overtime yesterday.  In fact, all four games were pretty lopsided.

In the early game, Tampa Bay defeated Florida 6-2.  That gives Tampa Bay a 3-1 series lead, and we’re now giving Tampa Bay an 86.5% chance of winning the series.

In the second game of the day, the New York Islanders surprised Pittsburgh 4-1.  The series is tied 2-2, but we’ve still got Pittsburgh as the favourite, giving them a 61.7% chance of winning the series.

In the Saturday night Hockey Night In Canada game, Toronto dominated Montreal, winning 5-1.  That ties the series at 1-1, and the McDonald NHL Power Ratings team now gives Toronto a 67.8% chance of winning the series.  To relive childhood memories of watching these two teams play, I was tempted to have a bath between the first and second periods, and go to bed at the 2nd intermission, but I’m a grown-up now and I can stay up to see the end of the game, but since the game wasn’t too exciting, I didn’t watch the end of it anyways.

In the final game of the night, Vegas shut out Minnesota 4-0.  That gives Vegas a 3-1 series lead, and we’ve upped Vegas’ chances of winning the series to 92.1%.

There are two afternoon games today.  In the first tilt, just after lunch, Carolina is in Nashville.  Carolina has a 2-1 series lead, and we’re giving them a 78.9% chance of winning that series.  That game is closely followed by Colorado in St. Louis.  Colorado has a 3-0 lead in that series, and we’re giving them a 63.0% chance of a sweep, and a 98.4% chance overall of winning the series.

In the first of the evening games, Boston returns to Washington to try to close out that series.  Boston has a 3-1 series lead, and we’re giving them an 86.6% chance of winning the series.  The evening finishes off with Edmonton travelling to Winnipeg.  Thanks to COVID, Edmonton will not have to face the famous Winnipeg White Out, but we’re still giving Winnipeg a 76.9% chance of winning their series.

Yesterday’s Games

Central Division, 2 vs. 3

Florida 2 at Tampa Bay 6

• Tampa Bay leads series 3-1
• Tampa Bay now has an 86.5% chance of winning the series, up from 68.0%

Series schedule:

• May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
• May 18: Tampa Bay 3 at Florida 1
• May 20: Florida 6 at Tampa Bay 5 (OT)
• May 22: Florida 2 at Tampa Bay 6
• May 24: Tampa Bay at Florida
• May 26: Florida at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• May 28: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Florida has a 13.5% chance of winning (▼18.5)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0% (▼12.3)
  • In 7 games: 13.5% (▼6.3)
• Tampa Bay has a 86.5% chance of winning (▲18.5)
  • In 7 games: 9.8% (▼4.9)
  • In 6 games: 29.6% (▲2.7)
  • In 5 games: 47.1% (▲20.7)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

East Division, 1 vs. 4

Pittsburgh 1 at New York Islanders 4

• Series tied 2-2
• Pittsburgh now has a 61.7% chance of winning the series, down from 78.6%

Series schedule:

• May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
• May 18: New York Islanders 1 at Pittsburgh 2
• May 20: Pittsburgh 5 at New York Islanders 4
• May 22: Pittsburgh 1 at New York Islanders 4
• May 24: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh
• May 26: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
• May 28: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Pittsburgh has a 61.7% chance of winning (▼16.9)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼35.0)
  • In 6 games: 32.3% (▲7.8)
  • In 7 games: 29.4% (▲10.3)
• NY Islanders has a 38.3% chance of winning (▲16.9)
  • In 7 games: 18.5% (▲6.4)
  • In 6 games: 19.8% (▲10.5)
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

North Division, 1 vs. 4

Montreal 1 at Toronto 5

• Series tied 1-1
• Toronto now has a 67.8% chance of winning the series, up from 54.9%

Series schedule:

• May 20: Montreal 3 at Toronto 2
• May 22: Montreal 1 at Toronto 5
• May 24: Toronto at Montreal
• May 25: Toronto at Montreal
• May 27: Montreal at Toronto
• May 29: Toronto at Montreal (if necessary)
• May 31: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Toronto has a 67.8% chance of winning (▲12.9)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 22.7% (▲7.7)
  • In 6 games: 23.4% (▲4.2)
  • In 7 games: 21.6% (▲0.9)
• Montreal has a 32.2% chance of winning (▼12.9)
  • In 7 games: 11.3% (▲0.5)
  • In 6 games: 13.4% (▼1.8)
  • In 5 games: 7.5% (▼3.5)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼8.2)

West Division, 2 vs. 3

Vegas 4 at Minnesota 0

• Vegas leads series 3-1
• Vegas now has a 92.1% chance of winning the series, up from 74.3%

Series schedule:

• May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
• May 18: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 3
• May 20: Vegas 5 at Minnesota 2
• May 22: Vegas 4 at Minnesota 0
• May 24: Minnesota at Vegas
• May 26: Vegas at Minnesota (if necessary)
• May 28: Minnesota at Vegas (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Vegas has a 92.1% chance of winning (▲17.8)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 63.0% (▲32.1)
  • In 6 games: 18.1% (▼5.5)
  • In 7 games: 10.9% (▼8.9)
• Minnesota has a 7.9% chance of winning (▼17.8)
  • In 7 games: 7.9% (▼6.4)
  • In 6 games: 0.0% (▼11.4)
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Games

Central Division, 1 vs. 4

Carolina at Nashville

• Carolina leads series 2-1
• Carolina has a 78.9% chance of winning the series

West Division, 1 vs. 4

Colorado at St. Louis

• Colorado leads series 3-0
• Colorado has a 98.4% chance of winning the series

East Division, 2 vs. 3

Boston at Washington

• Boston leads series 3-1
• Boston has an 86.6% chance of winning the series

North Division, 2 vs. 3

Edmonton at Winnipeg

• Winnipeg leads series 2-0
• Winnipeg has a 76.9% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Nashville (4th in Central, 64 pts)

Carolina leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Carolina 79%, Nashville 21%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings: 

• Carolina: 1565, 5th overall
• Nashville: 1506, 15th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Carolina: 5 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Nashville: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Carolina: 5-2-3
• Nashville: 7-2-1

Series schedule:

• May 17: Nashville 2 at Carolina 5
• May 19: Nashville 0 at Carolina 3
• May 21: Carolina 4 at Nashville 5 (2OT)
• May 23: Carolina at Nashville
• May 25: Nashville at Carolina
• May 27: Carolina at Nashville (if necessary)
• May 29: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Carolina has a 78.9% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 35.0%
  • In 6 games: 24.8%
  • In 7 games: 19.0%
• Nashville has a 21.1% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 11.8%
  • In 6 games: 9.2%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Florida (2nd in Central, 79 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Tampa Bay leads series 3-1

Chances of winning: Florida 13%, Tampa Bay 87%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Florida: 1553, 8th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1539, 11th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Florida: 5 regulation wins
• Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Florida: 8-2-0
• Tampa Bay: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

• May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
• May 18: Tampa Bay 3 at Florida 1
• May 20: Florida 6 at Tampa Bay 5 (OT)
• May 22: Florida 2 at Tampa Bay 6
• May 24: Tampa Bay at Florida
• May 26: Florida at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• May 28: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Florida has a 13.5% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 7 games: 13.5%
• Tampa Bay has a 86.5% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 9.8%
  • In 6 games: 29.6%
  • In 5 games: 47.1%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

East Division

Pittsburgh (1st in East, 77 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: Pittsburgh 62%, New York Islanders 38%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Pittsburgh: 1575, 2nd overall
• NY Islanders: 1523, 12th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Pittsburgh: 4 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• New York Islanders: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Pittsburgh: 8-2-0
• New York Islanders: 3-4-3

Series schedule:

• May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
• May 18: New York Islanders 1 at Pittsburgh 2
• May 20: Pittsburgh 5 at New York Islanders 4
• May 22: Pittsburgh 1 at New York Islanders 4
• May 24: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh
• May 26: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
• May 28: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Pittsburgh has a 61.7% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 32.3%
  • In 7 games: 29.4%
• NY Islanders has a 38.3% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 18.5%
  • In 6 games: 19.8%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Washington (2nd in East, 77 pts) vs. Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts)

Boston leads series 3-1

Chances of winning: Washington 13%, Boston 87%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Washington: 1572, 4th overall
• Boston: 1557, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Washington: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• Boston: 4 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Washington: 7-2-1
• Boston: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

• May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 17: Boston 4 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 19: Washington 2 at Boston 3 (2OT)
• May 21: Washington 1 at Boston 4
• May 23: Boston at Washington
• May 25: Washington at Boston (if necessary)
• May 27: Boston at Washington (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Washington has a 13.4% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 7 games: 13.4%
• Boston has a 86.6% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 9.9%
  • In 6 games: 29.6%
  • In 5 games: 47.1%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. St. Louis (4th in West, 63 pts)

Colorado leads series 3-0

Chances of winning: Colorado 98%, St. Louis 2%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1616, 1st overall
• St. Louis: 1517, 13th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Colorado: 5 regulation wins
• St. Louis: 3 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Colorado: 8-2-0
• St. Louis: 6-1-3

Series schedule:

• May 17: St. Louis 1 at Colorado 4
• May 19: St. Louis 3 at Colorado 6
• May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 1
• May 23: Colorado at St. Louis
• May 25: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)
• May 27: Colorado at St. Louis (if necessary)
• May 29: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 98.4% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 63.0%
  • In 5 games: 26.3%
  • In 6 games: 6.1%
  • In 7 games: 3.0%
• St. Louis has a 1.6% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 1.6%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Minnesota (3rd in West, 75 pts)

Vegas leads series 3-1

Chances of winning: Vegas 92%, Minnesota 8%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1575, 2nd overall
• Minnesota: 1550, 9th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Vegas: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins
• Minnesota: 4 regulation wins, 1 shootout win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Vegas: 7-3-0
• Minnesota: 5-3-2

Series schedule:

• May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
• May 18: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 3
• May 20: Vegas 5 at Minnesota 2
• May 22: Vegas 4 at Minnesota 0
• May 24: Minnesota at Vegas
• May 26: Vegas at Minnesota (if necessary)
• May 28: Minnesota at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Vegas has a 92.1% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 63.0%
  • In 6 games: 18.1%
  • In 7 games: 10.9%
• Minnesota has a 7.9% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 7.9%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

North Division

Toronto (1st in North, 77 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Series tied 1-1

Chances of winning: Toronto 68%, Montreal 32%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Toronto: 1560, 6th overall
• Montreal: 1467, 21st overall

Head-to-head this year (10 games):

• Toronto: 6 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Montreal: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Toronto: 7-1-2
• Montreal: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

• May 20: Montreal 3 at Toronto 2
• May 22: Montreal 1 at Toronto 5
• May 24: Toronto at Montreal
• May 25: Toronto at Montreal
• May 27: Montreal at Toronto
• May 29: Toronto at Montreal (if necessary)
• May 31: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Toronto has a 67.8% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 22.7%
  • In 6 games: 23.4%
  • In 7 games: 21.6%
• Montreal has a 32.2% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 11.3%
  • In 6 games: 13.4%
  • In 5 games: 7.5%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Edmonton (2nd in North, 72 pts) vs. Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts)

Winnipeg leads series 2-0

Chances of winning: Edmonton 23%, Winnipeg 77%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Edmonton: 1548, 10th overall
• Winnipeg: 1494, 17th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

• Edmonton: 7 regulation wins
• Winnipeg: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Edmonton: 7-3-0
• Winnipeg: 3-7-0

Series schedule:

• May 19: Winnipeg 4 at Edmonton 1
• May 21: Winnipeg 1 at Edmonton 0 (OT)
• May 23: Edmonton at Winnipeg
• May 24: Edmonton at Winnipeg
• May 26: Winnipeg at Edmonton (if necessary)
• May 28: Edmonton at Winnipeg (if necessary)
• May 30: Winnipeg at Edmonton (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Edmonton has a 23.1% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 7.7%
  • In 7 games: 15.4%
• Winnipeg has a 76.9% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 9.4%
  • In 6 games: 18.8%
  • In 5 games: 19.7%
  • In 4 games: 29.1%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the first-round playoffs started.

 1       Colorado Avalanche            21.4%
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins           9.6%
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           9.2%
 4       Carolina Hurricanes           9.0%
 5       Vegas Golden Knights          9.0%
 6       Washington Capitals           8.0%
 7       Florida Panthers              6.5%
 8       Edmonton Oilers               6.1%
 9       Boston Bruins                 5.4%
10       Minnesota Wild                4.3%
11       Tampa Bay Lightning           4.1%
12       New York Islanders            2.2%
13       Nashville Predators           1.7%
14       St. Louis Blues               1.6%
15       Winnipeg Jets                 1.3%
16       Montreal Canadiens            0.7%

 

Another day, two more overtime games!  And neither of those two games involved Washington and Boston!  I guess I shouldn’t be surprised that there are so many overtime games; the McDonald NHL Power Ratings model expects 22.5% of games to be tied at the end of regulation time.  But this makes for very exciting playoff games.

After the first three games between Washington and Boston going to overtime, Boston won yesterday 4 to 1.  They now lead the series 3 games to 1, and head back to Washington.  Even with two games left in Washington and only one in Boston, a 3-1 lead is pretty powerful; we’re giving Boston an 86.6% chance of winning the series.  We’ll see if the next game is as close as the first three.

In the second game of the day, and the only one not shown on Canadian TV, Nashville defeated Carolina 5-4 in double overtime!  Carolina didn’t help themselves, giving Nashville 7 power-play opportunities, including a 5-on-3 and a power play in the 2nd overtime period.  But, it was a close game, neither team going up by more than a goal through the entire game.  Nashville needed the home win; even though Nashville is only down 2-1, we’re still giving Carolina a 78.9% chance of winning the series.

In the second overtime game of the day, Winnipeg beat Edmonton 1-0.  After losing 9 of their last 12 games of the regular season, including a 7 game losing streak, and losing 7 of the 10 regular season games against Edmonton, the Jets have taken a 2-0 lead in this series.  With the teams heading to Winnipeg for the next two games, we’re now giving Winnipeg a 76.9% chance of taking the series.

In the late game, Colorado overpowered St. Louis 5-1.  Colorado is the top-ranked team in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings, and they look to be too much for St. Louis.  They lead the series 3-0, and we’re now giving them a 98.4% chance of winning the series, including a 63.0% chance of a sweep.

There are four more games on tap today.  The big game, of course, is the Hockey Night In Canada game featuring Montreal in Toronto.  Montreal won the first game of the series, but we’re still giving Toronto a 54.9% chance of taking the series.

Yesterday’s Games

East Division, 2 vs. 3

Washington 1 at Boston 4

• Boston leads series 3-1
• Boston now has an 86.6% chance of winning the series, up from 68.5%

Series schedule:

• May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 17: Boston 4 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 19: Washington 2 at Boston 3 (2OT)
• May 21: Washington 1 at Boston 4
• May 23: Boston at Washington
• May 25: Washington at Boston (if necessary)
• May 27: Boston at Washington (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Washington has a 13.4% chance of winning (▼18.1)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0% (▼12.0)
  • In 7 games: 13.4% (▼6.1)
• Boston has a 86.6% chance of winning (▲18.1)
  • In 7 games: 9.9% (▼5.0)
  • In 6 games: 29.6% (▲2.3)
  • In 5 games: 47.1% (▲20.8)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Central Division, 1 vs. 4

Carolina 4 at Nashville 5 (2OT)

• Carolina leads series 2-1
• Carolina now has a 78.9% chance of winning the series, down from 89.2%

Series schedule:

• May 17: Nashville 2 at Carolina 5
• May 19: Nashville 0 at Carolina 3
• May 21: Carolina 4 at Nashville 5 (2OT)
• May 23: Carolina at Nashville
• May 25: Nashville at Carolina
• May 27: Carolina at Nashville (if necessary)
• May 29: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Carolina has a 78.9% chance of winning (▼10.3)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼32.4)
  • In 5 games: 35.0% (▲4.0)
  • In 6 games: 24.8% (▲9.7)
  • In 7 games: 19.0% (▲8.3)
• Nashville has a 21.1% chance of winning (▲10.3)
  • In 7 games: 11.8% (▲5.1)
  • In 6 games: 9.2% (▲5.1)
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

North Division, 2 vs. 3

Winnipeg 1 at Edmonton 0 (OT)

• Winnipeg leads series 2-0
• Winnipeg now has a 76.9% chance of winning the series, up from 54.7%

Series schedule:

• May 19: Winnipeg 4 at Edmonton 1
• May 21: Winnipeg 1 at Edmonton 0 (OT)
• May 23: Edmonton at Winnipeg
• May 24: Edmonton at Winnipeg
• May 26: Winnipeg at Edmonton (if necessary)
• May 28: Edmonton at Winnipeg (if necessary)
• May 30: Winnipeg at Edmonton (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Edmonton has a 23.1% chance of winning (▼22.2)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼10.9)
  • In 6 games: 7.7% (▼7.8)
  • In 7 games: 15.4% (▼3.6)
• Winnipeg has a 76.9% chance of winning (▲22.2)
  • In 7 games: 9.4% (▼2.3)
  • In 6 games: 18.8% (▲1.3)
  • In 5 games: 19.7% (▲5.7)
  • In 4 games: 29.1% (▲17.7)

West Division, 1 vs. 4

Colorado 5 at St. Louis 1

• Colorado leads series 3-0
• Colorado now has a 98.4% chance of winning the series, up from 93.1%

Series schedule:

• May 17: St. Louis 1 at Colorado 4
• May 19: St. Louis 3 at Colorado 6
• May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 1
• May 23: Colorado at St. Louis
• May 25: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)
• May 27: Colorado at St. Louis (if necessary)
• May 29: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Colorado has a 98.4% chance of winning (▲5.3)
  • In 4 games: 63.0% (▲24.6)
  • In 5 games: 26.3% (▼6.0)
  • In 6 games: 6.1% (▼7.7)
  • In 7 games: 3.0% (▼5.6)
• St. Louis has a 1.6% chance of winning (▼5.3)
  • In 7 games: 1.6% (▼2.8)
  • In 6 games: 0.0% (▼2.5)
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Games

Central Division, 2 vs. 3

Florida at Tampa Bay

• Tampa Bay leads series 2-1
• Tampa Bay has a 68.0% chance of winning the series

East Division, 1 vs. 4

Pittsburgh at New York Islanders

• Pittsburgh leads series 2-1
• Pittsburgh has a 78.6% chance of winning the series

North Division, 1 vs. 4

Montreal at Toronto

• Montreal leads series 1-0
• Toronto has a 54.9% chance of winning the series

West Division, 2 vs. 3

Vegas at Minnesota

• Vegas leads series 2-1
• Vegas has a 74.3% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Nashville (4th in Central, 64 pts)

Carolina leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Carolina 79%, Nashville 21%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings: 

• Carolina: 1565, 5th overall
• Nashville: 1506, 15th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Carolina: 5 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Nashville: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Carolina: 5-2-3
• Nashville: 7-2-1

Series schedule:

• May 17: Nashville 2 at Carolina 5
• May 19: Nashville 0 at Carolina 3
• May 21: Carolina 4 at Nashville 5 (2OT)
• May 23: Carolina at Nashville
• May 25: Nashville at Carolina
• May 27: Carolina at Nashville (if necessary)
• May 29: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Carolina has a 78.9% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 35.0%
  • In 6 games: 24.8%
  • In 7 games: 19.0%
• Nashville has a 21.1% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 11.8%
  • In 6 games: 9.2%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Florida (2nd in Central, 79 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Tampa Bay leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Florida 32%, Tampa Bay 68%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Florida: 1553, 8th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1539, 11th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Florida: 5 regulation wins
• Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Florida: 8-2-0
• Tampa Bay: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

• May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
• May 18: Tampa Bay 3 at Florida 1
• May 20: Florida 6 at Tampa Bay 5 (OT)
• May 22: Florida at Tampa Bay
• May 24: Tampa Bay at Florida
• May 26: Florida at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• May 28: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Florida has a 32.0% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 12.3%
  • In 7 games: 19.8%
• Tampa Bay has a 68.0% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.7%
  • In 6 games: 26.9%
  • In 5 games: 26.4%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

East Division

Pittsburgh (1st in East, 77 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Pittsburgh leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Pittsburgh 79%, New York Islanders 21%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Pittsburgh: 1575, 2nd overall
• NY Islanders: 1523, 12th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Pittsburgh: 4 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• New York Islanders: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Pittsburgh: 8-2-0
• New York Islanders: 3-4-3

Series schedule:

• May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
• May 18: New York Islanders 1 at Pittsburgh 2
• May 20: Pittsburgh 5 at New York Islanders 4
• May 22: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
• May 24: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh
• May 26: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders (if necessary)
• May 28: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Pittsburgh has a 78.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 35.0%
  • In 6 games: 24.5%
  • In 7 games: 19.1%
• NY Islanders has a 21.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 12.1%
  • In 6 games: 9.3%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Washington (2nd in East, 77 pts) vs. Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts)

Boston leads series 3-1

Chances of winning: Washington 13%, Boston 87%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Washington: 1572, 4th overall
• Boston: 1557, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Washington: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• Boston: 4 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Washington: 7-2-1
• Boston: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

• May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 17: Boston 4 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 19: Washington 2 at Boston 3 (2OT)
• May 21: Washington 1 at Boston 4
• May 23: Boston at Washington
• May 25: Washington at Boston (if necessary)
• May 27: Boston at Washington (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Washington has a 13.4% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 7 games: 13.4%
• Boston has a 86.6% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 9.9%
  • In 6 games: 29.6%
  • In 5 games: 47.1%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. St. Louis (4th in West, 63 pts)

Colorado leads series 3-0

Chances of winning: Colorado 98%, St. Louis 2%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1616, 1st overall
• St. Louis: 1517, 13th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Colorado: 5 regulation wins
• St. Louis: 3 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Colorado: 8-2-0
• St. Louis: 6-1-3

Series schedule:

• May 17: St. Louis 1 at Colorado 4
• May 19: St. Louis 3 at Colorado 6
• May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 1
• May 23: Colorado at St. Louis
• May 25: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)
• May 27: Colorado at St. Louis (if necessary)
• May 29: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 98.4% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 63.0%
  • In 5 games: 26.3%
  • In 6 games: 6.1%
  • In 7 games: 3.0%
• St. Louis has a 1.6% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 1.6%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Minnesota (3rd in West, 75 pts)

Vegas leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Vegas 74%, Minnesota 26%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1575, 2nd overall
• Minnesota: 1550, 9th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Vegas: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins
• Minnesota: 4 regulation wins, 1 shootout win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Vegas: 7-3-0
• Minnesota: 5-3-2

Series schedule:

• May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
• May 18: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 3
• May 20: Vegas 5 at Minnesota 2
• May 22: Vegas at Minnesota
• May 24: Minnesota at Vegas
• May 26: Vegas at Minnesota (if necessary)
• May 28: Minnesota at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Vegas has a 74.3% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 30.9%
  • In 6 games: 23.6%
  • In 7 games: 19.8%
• Minnesota has a 25.7% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.3%
  • In 6 games: 11.4%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

North Division

Toronto (1st in North, 77 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Montreal leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Toronto 55%, Montreal 45%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Toronto: 1560, 6th overall
• Montreal: 1467, 21st overall

Head-to-head this year (10 games):

• Toronto: 6 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Montreal: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Toronto: 7-1-2
• Montreal: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

• May 20: Montreal 3 at Toronto 2
• May 22: Montreal at Toronto
• May 24: Toronto at Montreal
• May 25: Toronto at Montreal
• May 27: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)
• May 29: Toronto at Montreal (if necessary)
• May 31: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Toronto has a 54.9% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 15.0%
  • In 6 games: 19.2%
  • In 7 games: 20.7%
• Montreal has a 45.1% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 10.8%
  • In 6 games: 15.2%
  • In 5 games: 11.0%
  • In 4 games: 8.2%

Edmonton (2nd in North, 72 pts) vs. Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts)

Winnipeg leads series 2-0

Chances of winning: Edmonton 23%, Winnipeg 77%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Edmonton: 1548, 10th overall
• Winnipeg: 1494, 17th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

• Edmonton: 7 regulation wins
• Winnipeg: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Edmonton: 7-3-0
• Winnipeg: 3-7-0

Series schedule:

• May 19: Winnipeg 4 at Edmonton 1
• May 21: Winnipeg 1 at Edmonton 0 (OT)
• May 23: Edmonton at Winnipeg
• May 24: Edmonton at Winnipeg
• May 26: Winnipeg at Edmonton (if necessary)
• May 28: Edmonton at Winnipeg (if necessary)
• May 30: Winnipeg at Edmonton (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Edmonton has a 23.1% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 7.7%
  • In 7 games: 15.4%
• Winnipeg has a 76.9% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 9.4%
  • In 6 games: 18.8%
  • In 5 games: 19.7%
  • In 4 games: 29.1%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the first-round playoffs started.

 1       Colorado Avalanche            21.4%
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins           9.6%
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           9.2%
 4       Carolina Hurricanes           9.0%
 5       Vegas Golden Knights          9.0%
 6       Washington Capitals           8.0%
 7       Florida Panthers              6.5%
 8       Edmonton Oilers               6.1%
 9       Boston Bruins                 5.4%
10       Minnesota Wild                4.3%
11       Tampa Bay Lightning           4.1%
12       New York Islanders            2.2%
13       Nashville Predators           1.7%
14       St. Louis Blues               1.6%
15       Winnipeg Jets                 1.3%
16       Montreal Canadiens            0.7%

 

More overtime!  In the first game of the day yesterday, Florida came back from a 2-goal deficit in the third to tie the game, then won it in overtime.  Down 2-0 and playing on the road, Florida desperately needed the win, and they got it.  Tampa Bay is still favoured to win the series, but only with a 68.0% chance now, down from 83.6%.

The second game of the day was probably the day’s best.  In a good hard-nosed, physical game, Pittsburgh edged the Islanders 5-4.  At one point in the 3rd period, each team had 5 players in the penalty box!  It wasn’t a dirty game, just very physical — good playoff hockey!  Pittsburgh takes a 2-1 series lead, and now has a 78.6% chance of winning the series.

Ah, Montreal and Toronto!  What Canadian hockey fan (and we’re all hockey fans!) wouldn’t love to see a game between these two great rivals.  And what a game!  Montreal broke a 1-1 tie late in the third on a short-handed goal by Paul Byron, who scored from his knees after getting tripped on a breakaway, a beautiful goal!  Carey Price was spectacular in the net.  Toronto has a really good team (and pretty cheesy mustaches, yuck), but they haven’t been able to beat Montreal in the playoffs since May 2nd, 1967!  Their second matchup comes Saturday night; good old Hockey Night In Canada, Saturday night, Montreal vs. Toronto!!!  We’re still favouring Toronto to win the series (54.9%), but it should continue to be a great series.

In the nightcap, Vegas scored 5 unanswered goals to beat Minnesota 5-2.  I’d say it was a yawner, but that’s only because I was tired and went to bed before the game was over.  We’re now giving Vegas a 74.3% chance of winning the series.

In tonight’s games, Washington visits Boston, down 2-1.  The previous three games in the series have all gone to overtime, so we’re expecting another close game!  Boston has a 68.5% chance of winning the series, so Washington really needs this road win.  Carolina travels to Nashville, up 2-0.  Nashville really needs to turn things around — we’re giving Carolina an 89.2% chance of winning the series.  Winnipeg plays in Edmonton, with a 1-0 lead in that series.  We’re seeing this a close series, giving Winnipeg a slight edge at 54.7%.  And in the late game, top-ranked Colorado plays in St. Louis.  Colorado has a 2-0 lead in the series, and the McDonald NHL Power Rating team gives them a 93.1% chance of winning the series.

Yesterday’s Games

Central Division, 2 vs. 3

Florida 6 at Tampa Bay 5 (OT)

• Tampa Bay leads series 2-1
• Tampa Bay now has a 68.0% chance of winning the series, down from 83.6%

Series schedule:

• May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
• May 18: Tampa Bay 3 at Florida 1
• May 20: Florida 6 at Tampa Bay 5 (OT)
• May 22: Florida at Tampa Bay
• May 24: Tampa Bay at Florida
• May 26: Florida at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• May 28: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Florida has a 32.0% chance of winning (▲15.6)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 12.3% (▲7.3)
  • In 7 games: 19.8% (▲8.4)
• Tampa Bay has a 68.0% chance of winning (▼15.6)
  • In 7 games: 14.7% (▲6.3)
  • In 6 games: 26.9% (▲8.7)
  • In 5 games: 26.4% (▲4.8)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼35.4)

East Division, 1 vs. 4

Pittsburgh 5 at New York Islanders 4

• Pittsburgh leads series 2-1
• Pittsburgh now has a 78.6% chance of winning, up from 59.4%

Series schedule:

• May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
• May 18: New York Islanders 1 at Pittsburgh 2
• May 20: Pittsburgh 5 at New York Islanders 4
• May 22: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
• May 24: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh
• May 26: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders (if necessary)
• May 28: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Pittsburgh has a 78.6% chance of winning (▲19.2)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 35.0% (▲17.2)
  • In 6 games: 24.5% (▲4.1)
  • In 7 games: 19.1% (▼2.0)
• NY Islanders has a 21.4% chance of winning (▼19.2)
  • In 7 games: 12.1% (▼1.1)
  • In 6 games: 9.3% (▼7.7)
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼10.5)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

North Division, 1 vs. 4

Montreal 2 at Toronto 1

• Montreal leads series 1-0
• Toronto now has a 54.9% chance of winning, down from 75.3%

Series schedule:

• May 20: Montreal 3 at Toronto 2
• May 22: Montreal at Toronto
• May 24: Toronto at Montreal
• May 25: Toronto at Montreal
• May 27: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)
• May 29: Toronto at Montreal (if necessary)
• May 31: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Toronto has a 54.9% chance of winning (▼20.4)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼17.4)
  • In 5 games: 15.0% (▼9.7)
  • In 6 games: 19.2% (▲1.5)
  • In 7 games: 20.7% (▲5.3)
• Montreal has a 45.1% chance of winning (▲20.4)
  • In 7 games: 10.8% (▲2.7)
  • In 6 games: 15.2% (▲6.2)
  • In 5 games: 11.0% (▲5.9)
  • In 4 games: 8.2% (▲5.6)

West Division, 2 vs. 3

Vegas 5 at Minnesota 2

• Vegas leads series 2-1
• Vegas now has a 74.3% chance of winning, up from 52.7%

Series schedule:

• May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
• May 18: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 3
• May 20: Vegas 5 at Minnesota 2
• May 22: Vegas at Minnesota
• May 24: Minnesota at Vegas
• May 26: Vegas at Minnesota (if necessary)
• May 28: Minnesota at Vegas (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Vegas has a 74.3% chance of winning (▲21.6)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 30.9% (▲16.5)
  • In 6 games: 23.6% (▲5.6)
  • In 7 games: 19.8% (▼0.4)
• Minnesota has a 25.7% chance of winning (▼21.6)
  • In 7 games: 14.3% (▼0.2)
  • In 6 games: 11.4% (▼8.1)
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼13.4)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Games

East Division, 2 vs. 3

Washington at Boston

• Boston leads series 2-1
• Boston has a 68.5% chance of winning the series

Central Division, 1 vs. 4

Carolina at Nashville

• Carolina leads series 2-0
• Carolina has an 89.2% chance of winning the series

North Division, 2 vs. 3

Winnipeg at Edmonton

• Winnipeg leads series 1-0
• Winnipeg has a 54.7% chance of winning the series

West Division, 1 vs. 4

Colorado at St. Louis

• Colorado leads series 2-0
• Colorado has a 93.1% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Nashville (4th in Central, 64 pts)

Carolina leads series 2-0

Chances of winning: Carolina 89%, Nashville 11%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings: 

• Carolina: 1565, 5th overall
• Nashville: 1506, 15th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Carolina: 5 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Nashville: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Carolina: 5-2-3
• Nashville: 7-2-1

Series schedule:

• May 17: Nashville 2 at Carolina 5
• May 19: Nashville 0 at Carolina 3
• May 21: Carolina at Nashville
• May 23: Carolina at Nashville
• May 25: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)
• May 27: Carolina at Nashville (if necessary)
• May 29: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Carolina has a 89.2% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 32.4%
  • In 5 games: 31.0%
  • In 6 games: 15.1%
  • In 7 games: 10.7%
• Nashville has a 10.8% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 6.7%
  • In 6 games: 4.1%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Florida (2nd in Central, 79 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Tampa Bay leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Florida 32%, Tampa Bay 68%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Florida: 1553, 8th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1539, 11th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Florida: 5 regulation wins
• Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Florida: 8-2-0
• Tampa Bay: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

• May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
• May 18: Tampa Bay 3 at Florida 1
• May 20: Florida 6 at Tampa Bay 5 (OT)
• May 22: Florida at Tampa Bay
• May 24: Tampa Bay at Florida
• May 26: Florida at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• May 28: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Florida has a 32.0% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 12.3%
  • In 7 games: 19.8%
• Tampa Bay has a 68.0% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.7%
  • In 6 games: 26.9%
  • In 5 games: 26.4%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

East Division

Pittsburgh (1st in East, 77 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Pittsburgh leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Pittsburgh 79%, New York Islanders 21%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Pittsburgh: 1575, 2nd overall
• NY Islanders: 1523, 12th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Pittsburgh: 4 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• New York Islanders: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Pittsburgh: 8-2-0
• New York Islanders: 3-4-3

Series schedule:

• May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
• May 18: New York Islanders 1 at Pittsburgh 2
• May 20: Pittsburgh 5 at New York Islanders 4
• May 22: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
• May 24: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh
• May 26: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders (if necessary)
• May 28: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Pittsburgh has a 78.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 35.0%
  • In 6 games: 24.5%
  • In 7 games: 19.1%
• NY Islanders has a 21.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 12.1%
  • In 6 games: 9.3%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Washington (2nd in East, 77 pts) vs. Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts)

Boston leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Washington 31%, Boston 69%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Washington: 1572, 4th overall
• Boston: 1557, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Washington: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• Boston: 4 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Washington: 7-2-1
• Boston: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

• May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 17: Boston 4 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 19: Washington 2 at Boston 3 (2OT)
• May 21: Washington at Boston
• May 23: Boston at Washington
• May 25: Washington at Boston (if necessary)
• May 27: Boston at Washington (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Washington has a 31.5% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 12.0%
  • In 7 games: 19.5%
• Boston has a 68.5% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.9%
  • In 6 games: 27.3%
  • In 5 games: 26.3%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. St. Louis (4th in West, 63 pts)

Colorado leads series 2-0

Chances of winning: Colorado 93%, St. Louis 7%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1616, 1st overall
• St. Louis: 1517, 13th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Colorado: 5 regulation wins
• St. Louis: 3 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Colorado: 8-2-0
• St. Louis: 6-1-3

Series schedule:

• May 17: St. Louis 1 at Colorado 4
• May 19: St. Louis 3 at Colorado 6
• May 21: Colorado at St. Louis
• May 23: Colorado at St. Louis
• May 25: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)
• May 27: Colorado at St. Louis (if necessary)
• May 29: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 93.1% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 38.4%
  • In 5 games: 32.3%
  • In 6 games: 13.8%
  • In 7 games: 8.6%
• St. Louis has a 6.9% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 4.4%
  • In 6 games: 2.5%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Minnesota (3rd in West, 75 pts)

Vegas leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Vegas 74%, Minnesota 26%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1575, 2nd overall
• Minnesota: 1550, 9th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Vegas: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins
• Minnesota: 4 regulation wins, 1 shootout win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Vegas: 7-3-0
• Minnesota: 5-3-2

Series schedule:

• May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
• May 18: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 3
• May 20: Vegas 5 at Minnesota 2
• May 22: Vegas at Minnesota
• May 24: Minnesota at Vegas
• May 26: Vegas at Minnesota (if necessary)
• May 28: Minnesota at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Vegas has a 74.3% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 30.9%
  • In 6 games: 23.6%
  • In 7 games: 19.8%
• Minnesota has a 25.7% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.3%
  • In 6 games: 11.4%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

North Division

Toronto (1st in North, 77 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Montreal leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Toronto 55%, Montreal 45%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Toronto: 1560, 6th overall
• Montreal: 1467, 21st overall

Head-to-head this year (10 games):

• Toronto: 6 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Montreal: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Toronto: 7-1-2
• Montreal: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

• May 20: Montreal 3 at Toronto 2
• May 22: Montreal at Toronto
• May 24: Toronto at Montreal
• May 25: Toronto at Montreal
• May 27: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)
• May 29: Toronto at Montreal (if necessary)
• May 31: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Toronto has a 54.9% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 15.0%
  • In 6 games: 19.2%
  • In 7 games: 20.7%
• Montreal has a 45.1% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 10.8%
  • In 6 games: 15.2%
  • In 5 games: 11.0%
  • In 4 games: 8.2%

Edmonton (2nd in North, 72 pts) vs. Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts)

Winnipeg leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Edmonton 45%, Winnipeg 55%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Edmonton: 1548, 10th overall
• Winnipeg: 1494, 17th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

• Edmonton: 7 regulation wins
• Winnipeg: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Edmonton: 7-3-0
• Winnipeg: 3-7-0

Series schedule:

• May 19: Winnipeg 4 at Edmonton 1
• May 21: Winnipeg at Edmonton
• May 23: Edmonton at Winnipeg
• May 24: Edmonton at Winnipeg
• May 26: Winnipeg at Edmonton
• May 28: Edmonton at Winnipeg
• May 30: Winnipeg at Edmonton

Simulation results:

• Edmonton has a 45.3% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 10.9%
  • In 6 games: 15.5%
  • In 7 games: 19.0%
• Winnipeg has a 54.7% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 11.7%
  • In 6 games: 17.5%
  • In 5 games: 14.0%
  • In 4 games: 11.4%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the first-round playoffs started.

 1       Colorado Avalanche            21.4%
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins           9.6%
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           9.2%
 4       Carolina Hurricanes           9.0%
 5       Vegas Golden Knights          9.0%
 6       Washington Capitals           8.0%
 7       Florida Panthers              6.5%
 8       Edmonton Oilers               6.1%
 9       Boston Bruins                 5.4%
10       Minnesota Wild                4.3%
11       Tampa Bay Lightning           4.1%
12       New York Islanders            2.2%
13       Nashville Predators           1.7%
14       St. Louis Blues               1.6%
15       Winnipeg Jets                 1.3%
16       Montreal Canadiens            0.7%

 

Another overtime playoff game!  Boston and Washington went to overtime again, as they have in all 3 games of their series!  This time, it went into double overtime, with Boston winning it after a miscommunication between Washington goalie Ilya Samsonov and defenseman Justin Schultz gave the Bruins’ Craig Smith an easy goal.  Boston leads that series 2-1, and are now the McDonald NHL Power Ratings favourite to win the series with a 68.5% chance.

In the second game of the night, Carolina defeated Nashville 3-0.  The game was much closer than the score indicated, as Carolina moved ahead 2-0 with a last minute empty-net goal, then scored again before time was out.  Nashville faces a tough battle heading home, as we’re now giving Carolina an 89.2% chance of winning the series.

There was yet another game that was much closer than the score showed, with Winnipeg beating Edmonton 4-1.  Edmonton was down 2-1 with a couple minutes left, and were putting huge pressure on Winnipeg, but after they pulled their goalie, Winnipeg scored a couple empty netters.  That was the first game of the series, and we’re now giving Winnipeg a 54.7% chance of winning the series.

In the night’s final game, Colorado defeated St. Louis 6-3.  Although Colorado dominated, the score was 4-3 when St. Louis pulled their goalie, and Colorado quickly scored a couple empty netters to put the game away.  Nathan MacKinnon got a hat trick in the Colorado victory.  The McDonald NHL Power Ratings team now gives top-ranked Colorado a 93.1% chance of winning the series.

There are four games on the slate again tonight.  First up, Florida visits Tampa Bay, down 2-0 and needing a road victory to keep themselves competitive.  Pittsburgh is in New York to face the Islanders.  That series is tied 1-1, and we’re giving Pittsburgh a slight edge in the series.  The highlight of the night will be Montreal visiting Toronto for the first game of their series.  It will be a tough series for Montreal, but their winning tradition and Toronto’s non-winning tradition will make it interesting.  Still, we’re giving Toronto a 75.3% chance of winning the series.  And in the last game, Vegas travels to Minnesota.  Their series is tied 1-1, and it’s pretty much a coin flip who’s going to win it, as we’re giving Vegas a slight 52.7% / 47.3% edge.

Yesterday’s Games

East Division, 2 vs. 3

Washington 2 at Boston 3 (2OT)

• Boston leads series 2-1
• Boston now has a 68.5% chance of winning the series, up from 49.7%

Series schedule:

• May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 17: Boston 4 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 19: Washington 2 at Boston 3 (2OT)
• May 21: Washington at Boston
• May 23: Boston at Washington
• May 25: Washington at Boston (if necessary)
• May 27: Boston at Washington (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Washington has a 31.5% chance of winning (▼18.8)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼13.5)
  • In 6 games: 12.0% (▼5.1)
  • In 7 games: 19.5% (▼0.2)
• Boston has a 68.5% chance of winning (▲18.8)
  • In 7 games: 14.9% (▲0.1)
  • In 6 games: 27.3% (▲6.6)
  • In 5 games: 26.3% (▲12.1)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Central Division, 1 vs. 4

Nashville 0 at Carolina 3

• Carolina leads series 2-0
• Carolina now has a 89.2% chance of winning the series, up from 78.9%

Series schedule:

• May 17: Nashville 2 at Carolina 5
• May 19: Nashville 0 at Carolina 3
• May 21: Carolina at Nashville
• May 23: Carolina at Nashville
• May 25: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)
• May 27: Carolina at Nashville (if necessary)
• May 29: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Carolina has a 89.2% chance of winning (▲10.3)
  • In 4 games: 32.4% (▲11.3)
  • In 5 games: 31.0% (▲4.6)
  • In 6 games: 15.1% (▼1.9)
  • In 7 games: 10.7% (▼3.7)
• Nashville has a 10.8% chance of winning (▼10.3)
  • In 7 games: 6.7% (▼2.3)
  • In 6 games: 4.1% (▼4.4)
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼3.7)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

North Division, 2 vs. 3

Winnipeg 4 at Edmonton 1

• Winnipeg leads series 1-0
• Winnipeg now has a 54.7% chance of winning, up from 33.7%

Series schedule:

• May 19: Winnipeg 4 at Edmonton 1
• May 21: Winnipeg at Edmonton
• May 23: Edmonton at Winnipeg
• May 24: Edmonton at Winnipeg
• May 26: Winnipeg at Edmonton
• May 28: Edmonton at Winnipeg
• May 30: Winnipeg at Edmonton

New simulation results:

• Edmonton has a 45.3% chance of winning (▼21.0)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼12.9)
  • In 5 games: 10.9% (▼9.9)
  • In 6 games: 15.5% (▼1.0)
  • In 7 games: 19.0% (▲2.9)
• Winnipeg has a 54.7% chance of winning (▲21.0)
  • In 7 games: 11.7% (▲1.7)
  • In 6 games: 17.5% (▲5.6)
  • In 5 games: 14.0% (▲6.5)
  • In 4 games: 11.4% (▲7.1)

West Division, 1 vs. 4

St. Louis 3 at Colorado 6

• Colorado leads series 2-0
• Colorado now has a 93.1% chance of winning, up from 85.8%

Series schedule:

• May 17: St. Louis 1 at Colorado 4
• May 19: St. Louis 3 at Colorado 6
• May 21: Colorado at St. Louis
• May 23: Colorado at St. Louis
• May 25: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)
• May 27: Colorado at St. Louis (if necessary)
• May 29: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Colorado has a 93.1% chance of winning (▲7.3)
  • In 4 games: 38.4% (▲11.4)
  • In 5 games: 32.3% (▲2.5)
  • In 6 games: 13.8% (▼2.9)
  • In 7 games: 8.6% (▼3.8)
• St. Louis has a 6.9% chance of winning (▼7.3)
  • In 7 games: 4.4% (▼2.0)
  • In 6 games: 2.5% (▼3.1)
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼2.2)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Games

Central Division, 2 vs. 3

Florida at Tampa Bay

• Tampa Bay leads series 2-0
• Tampa Bay has a 83.6% chance of winning the series

East Division, 1 vs. 4

Pittsburgh at New York Islanders

• Series tied 1-1
• Pittsburgh has a 59.4% chance of winning the series

North Division, 1 vs. 4

Montreal at Toronto

• Series tied 0-0
• Toronto has a 75.3% chance of winning the series

West Division, 2 vs. 3

Vegas at Minnesota

• Series tied 1-1
• Vegas has a 52.7% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Nashville (4th in Central, 64 pts)

Carolina leads series 2-0

Chances of winning: Carolina 89%, Nashville 11%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings: 

• Carolina: 1565, 5th overall
• Nashville: 1506, 15th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Carolina: 5 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Nashville: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Carolina: 5-2-3
• Nashville: 7-2-1

Series schedule:

• May 17: Nashville 2 at Carolina 5
• May 19: Nashville 0 at Carolina 3
• May 21: Carolina at Nashville
• May 23: Carolina at Nashville
• May 25: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)
• May 27: Carolina at Nashville (if necessary)
• May 29: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Carolina has a 89.2% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 32.4%
  • In 5 games: 31.0%
  • In 6 games: 15.1%
  • In 7 games: 10.7%
• Nashville has a 10.8% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 6.7%
  • In 6 games: 4.1%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Florida (2nd in Central, 79 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Tampa Bay leads series 2-0

Chances of winning: Florida 16%, Tampa Bay 84%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Florida: 1553, 8th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1539, 11th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Florida: 5 regulation wins
• Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Florida: 8-2-0
• Tampa Bay: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

• May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
• May 18: Tampa Bay 3 at Florida 1
• May 20: Florida at Tampa Bay
• May 22: Florida at Tampa Bay
• May 24: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)
• May 26: Florida at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• May 28: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Florida has a 16.4% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 5.0%
  • In 7 games: 11.4%
• Tampa Bay has a 83.6% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 8.4%
  • In 6 games: 18.2%
  • In 5 games: 21.6%
  • In 4 games: 35.4%

East Division

Pittsburgh (1st in East, 77 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Series tied 1-1

Chances of winning: Pittsburgh 59%, New York Islanders 41%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Pittsburgh: 1575, 2nd overall
• NY Islanders: 1523, 12th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Pittsburgh: 4 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• New York Islanders: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Pittsburgh: 8-2-0
• New York Islanders: 3-4-3

Series schedule:

• May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
• May 18: New York Islanders 1 at Pittsburgh 2
• May 20: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
• May 22: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
• May 24: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh
• May 26: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders (if necessary)
• May 28: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Pittsburgh has a 59.4% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 17.8%
  • In 6 games: 20.4%
  • In 7 games: 21.1%
• NY Islanders has a 40.6% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 13.2%
  • In 6 games: 17.0%
  • In 5 games: 10.5%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Washington (2nd in East, 77 pts) vs. Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts)

Boston leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Washington 31%, Boston 69%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Washington: 1572, 4th overall
• Boston: 1557, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Washington: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• Boston: 4 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Washington: 7-2-1
• Boston: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

• May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 17: Boston 4 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 19: Washington 2 at Boston 3 (2OT)
• May 21: Washington at Boston
• May 23: Boston at Washington
• May 25: Washington at Boston (if necessary)
• May 27: Boston at Washington (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Washington has a 31.5% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 12.0%
  • In 7 games: 19.5%
• Boston has a 68.5% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.9%
  • In 6 games: 27.3%
  • In 5 games: 26.3%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. St. Louis (4th in West, 63 pts)

Colorado leads series 2-0

Chances of winning: Colorado 93%, St. Louis 7%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1616, 1st overall
• St. Louis: 1517, 13th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Colorado: 5 regulation wins
• St. Louis: 3 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Colorado: 8-2-0
• St. Louis: 6-1-3

Series schedule:

• May 17: St. Louis 1 at Colorado 4
• May 19: St. Louis 3 at Colorado 6
• May 21: Colorado at St. Louis
• May 23: Colorado at St. Louis
• May 25: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)
• May 27: Colorado at St. Louis (if necessary)
• May 29: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 93.1% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 38.4%
  • In 5 games: 32.3%
  • In 6 games: 13.8%
  • In 7 games: 8.6%
• St. Louis has a 6.9% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 4.4%
  • In 6 games: 2.5%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Minnesota (3rd in West, 75 pts)

Series tied 1-1

Chances of winning: Vegas 53%, Minnesota 47%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1575, 2nd overall
• Minnesota: 1550, 9th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Vegas: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins
• Minnesota: 4 regulation wins, 1 shootout win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Vegas: 7-3-0
• Minnesota: 5-3-2

Series schedule:

• May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
• May 18: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 3
• May 20: Vegas at Minnesota
• May 22: Vegas at Minnesota
• May 24: Minnesota at Vegas
• May 26: Vegas at Minnesota (if necessary)
• May 28: Minnesota at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Vegas has a 52.7% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 14.5%
  • In 6 games: 18.0%
  • In 7 games: 20.2%
• Minnesota has a 47.3% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.5%
  • In 6 games: 19.5%
  • In 5 games: 13.4%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

North Division

Toronto (1st in North, 77 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Chances of winning: Toronto 75%, Montreal 25%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Toronto: 1560, 6th overall
• Montreal: 1467, 21st overall

Head-to-head this year (10 games):

• Toronto: 6 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Montreal: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Toronto: 7-1-2
• Montreal: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

• May 20: Montreal at Toronto
• May 22: Montreal at Toronto
• May 24: Toronto at Montreal
• May 25: Toronto at Montreal
• May 27: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)
• May 29: Toronto at Montreal (if necessary)
• May 31: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Toronto has a 75.3% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 17.4%
  • In 5 games: 24.7%
  • In 6 games: 17.7%
  • In 7 games: 15.4%
• Montreal has a 24.7% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 8.1%
  • In 6 games: 9.0%
  • In 5 games: 5.1%
  • In 4 games: 2.6%

Edmonton (2nd in North, 72 pts) vs. Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts)

Winnipeg leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Edmonton 45%, Winnipeg 55%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Edmonton: 1548, 10th overall
• Winnipeg: 1494, 17th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

• Edmonton: 7 regulation wins
• Winnipeg: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Edmonton: 7-3-0
• Winnipeg: 3-7-0

Series schedule:

• May 19: Winnipeg 4 at Edmonton 1
• May 21: Winnipeg at Edmonton
• May 23: Edmonton at Winnipeg
• May 24: Edmonton at Winnipeg
• May 26: Winnipeg at Edmonton
• May 28: Edmonton at Winnipeg
• May 30: Winnipeg at Edmonton

Simulation results:

• Edmonton has a 45.3% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 10.9%
  • In 6 games: 15.5%
  • In 7 games: 19.0%
• Winnipeg has a 54.7% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 11.7%
  • In 6 games: 17.5%
  • In 5 games: 14.0%
  • In 4 games: 11.4%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the first-round playoffs started.

 1       Colorado Avalanche            21.4%
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins           9.6%
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           9.2%
 4       Carolina Hurricanes           9.0%
 5       Vegas Golden Knights          9.0%
 6       Washington Capitals           8.0%
 7       Florida Panthers              6.5%
 8       Edmonton Oilers               6.1%
 9       Boston Bruins                 5.4%
10       Minnesota Wild                4.3%
11       Tampa Bay Lightning           4.1%
12       New York Islanders            2.2%
13       Nashville Predators           1.7%
14       St. Louis Blues               1.6%
15       Winnipeg Jets                 1.3%
16       Montreal Canadiens            0.7%

 

Well, the regular season has finally come to an end.  This week, there have been two meaningless games, both between Vancouver and Calgary, neither of which made the playoffs.  The Canucks won the first game at home, then the next day, Calgary won in Calgary.  Neither game was very exciting or interesting, but the season is done.  With the split, Calgary lost a rating point and Vancouver gained one, but neither team’s overall position in the rankings changed.

These ratings do not include any of the playoff games that have taken place before the end of the regular season.

The top 5

1. Colorado Avalanche (1616)

Record: 39-13-4, 1st in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: ✔
• Winning the President’s Trophy: ✔
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 21%

Last week: 0-0-0

• End of regular season schedule

Next week:

• End of regular season schedule

2 (tie). Pittsburgh Penguins (1575)

Record: 37-16-3, 1st in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: ✔
• Winning the President’s Trophy: —
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 10%

Last week: 0-0-0

• End of regular season schedule

Next week:

• End of regular season schedule

2 (tie). Vegas Golden Knights (1575)

Record: 40-14-2, 2nd in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: ✔
• Winning the President’s Trophy: —
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9%

Last week: 0-0-0

• End of regular season schedule

Next week:

• End of regular season schedule

4. Washington Capitals (1572)

Record: 36-15-5, 2nd in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: ✔
• Winning the President’s Trophy: —
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8%

Last week: 0-0-0

• End of regular season schedule

Next week:

• End of regular season schedule

5. Carolina Hurricanes (1565)

Record: 36-12-8, 1st in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: ✔
• Winning the President’s Trophy: —
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9%

Last week: 0-0-0

• End of regular season schedule

Next week:

• End of regular season schedule

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from 3 days ago.

Overall Ratings

 1       Colorado Avalanche            1616
 2 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins           1575
 2 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          1575
 4       Washington Capitals           1572
 5       Carolina Hurricanes           1565
 6       Toronto Maple Leafs           1560
 7       Boston Bruins                 1557
 8       Florida Panthers              1553
 9       Minnesota Wild                1550
10       Edmonton Oilers               1548
11       Tampa Bay Lightning           1539
12       New York Islanders            1523
13       St. Louis Blues               1517
14       New York Rangers              1515
15       Nashville Predators           1506
16       Dallas Stars                  1495
17       Winnipeg Jets                 1494
18       Philadelphia Flyers           1479
19       Calgary Flames                1476 (▼1)
20       Ottawa Senators               1469
21       Montreal Canadiens            1467
22       Arizona Coyotes               1464
23       Vancouver Canucks             1448 (▲1)
24       Chicago Blackhawks            1446
25       Los Angeles Kings             1444
26       Detroit Red Wings             1443
27       New Jersey Devils             1441
28       San Jose Sharks               1440
29       Columbus Blue Jackets         1430
30       Anaheim Ducks                 1415
31       Buffalo Sabres                1408

Chances of Winning Division

Central Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           ✔
 2 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            —
 2 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         —
 2 (tie) Dallas Stars                  —
 2 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             —
 2 (tie) Florida Panthers              —
 2 (tie) Nashville Predators           —
 2 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           —

East Division

 1       Pittsburgh Penguins           ✔
 2 (tie) Boston Bruins                 —
 2 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                —
 2 (tie) New York Islanders            —
 2 (tie) New York Rangers              —
 2 (tie) New Jersey Devils             —
 2 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           —
 2 (tie) Washington Capitals           —

West Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            ✔
 2 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 —
 2 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               —
 2 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             —
 2 (tie) Minnesota Wild                —
 2 (tie) San Jose Sharks               —
 2 (tie) St. Louis Blues               —
 2 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          —

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           ✔
 2 (tie) Calgary Flames                —
 2 (tie) Edmonton Oilers               —
 2 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            —
 2 (tie) Ottawa Senators               —
 2 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             —
 2 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 —

Making the Playoffs

Central Division

 1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           ✔
 1 (tie) Florida Panthers              ✔
 1 (tie) Nashville Predators           ✔
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           ✔
 5 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            —
 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         —
 5 (tie) Dallas Stars                  —
 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             —

East Division

 1 (tie) Boston Bruins                 ✔
 1 (tie) New York Islanders            ✔
 1 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins           ✔
 1 (tie) Washington Capitals           ✔
 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                —
 5 (tie) New York Rangers              —
 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils             —
 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           —

West Division

 1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            ✔
 1 (tie) Minnesota Wild                ✔
 1 (tie) St. Louis Blues               ✔
 1 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          ✔
 5 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 —
 5 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               —
 5 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             —
 5 (tie) San Jose Sharks               —

North Division

 1 (tie) Edmonton Oilers               ✔
 1 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            ✔
 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           ✔
 1 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 ✔
 5 (tie) Calgary Flames                —
 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators               —
 5 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             —

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Colorado Avalanche            ✔

Colorado has won the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            21%
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins           10%
 3 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           9%
 3 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           9%
 3 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          9%
 6       Washington Capitals           8%
 7 (tie) Edmonton Oilers               6%
 7 (tie) Florida Panthers              6%
 9       Boston Bruins                 5%
10 (tie) Minnesota Wild                4%
10 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           4%
12 (tie) New York Islanders            2%
12 (tie) Nashville Predators           2%
12 (tie) St. Louis Blues               2%
15 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            1%
15 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 1%
17 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 —
17 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               —
17 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                —
17 (tie) Calgary Flames                —
17 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            —
17 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         —
17 (tie) Dallas Stars                  —
17 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             —
17 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             —
17 (tie) New York Rangers              —
17 (tie) New Jersey Devils             —
17 (tie) Ottawa Senators               —
17 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           —
17 (tie) San Jose Sharks               —
17 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             —

 

There were 3 more close games last night, although none went to overtime.  Pittsburgh beat the Islanders 2-1 to even their series at 1 game apiece.  The series now moves to New York for the next two games, and we’re giving Pittsburgh a 59% chance of winning the series.  Tampa Bay beat Florida 3-1, but it was closer than a 2-goal game, as Tampa Bay scored their 3rd goal with 1:25 left.  The series now moves to Tampa Bay, and with a 2-0 lead in the series, we’re giving the Lightning an 84% chance of winning the series.  In the late game, Vegas beat Minnesota 3-1 behind a standout performance by Golden Knights’ goalie Marc-Andre Fleury.  Again, it was 1 one-goal game until Vegas scored with 53 seconds left.  That series is now even and moves to Minnesota for the next two games, and we’re giving Vegas a 53% chance of winning it.

This afternoon, the regular season finally comes to an end, with Vancouver travelling to Calgary.  They played yesterday, with Vancouver winning in a snoozer 4-2.  But, once this game is done, the North Division can start their playoffs, and tonight Winnipeg travels to Edmonton to start their series.

There are four playoff games on tap tonight.  Washington visits Boston — that series is tied 1-1, and we’re giving Washington the slightest of edges with a 50.4% chance of victory!  Nashville travels to Carolina, and Nashville needs to win to even the series.  We’re currently giving Carolina a 79% chance of winning the series.  In the aforementioned North Division matchup, we’re giving Edmonton a 66% chance of winning the series.  The final game of the night sees St. Louis visiting Colorado.  Colorado, who are the top-ranked team in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings,  leads the series 1-0, and we’re giving them an 86% chance of winning the series.

Yesterday’s Games

East Division, 1 vs. 4

New York Islanders 1 at Pittsburgh 2

• Series tied 1-1
• Pittsburgh now has a 59.4% chance of winning the series, up from 44.8%

Series schedule:

• May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
• May 18: New York Islanders 1 at Pittsburgh 2
• May 20: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
• May 22: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
• May 24: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh
• May 26: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders (if necessary)
• May 28: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Pittsburgh has a 59.4% chance of winning (▲14.6)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 17.8% (▲7.1)
  • In 6 games: 20.4% (▲5.2)
  • In 7 games: 21.1% (▲2.3)
• NY Islanders has a 40.6% chance of winning (▼14.6)
  • In 7 games: 13.2% (▲1.5)
  • In 6 games: 17.0% (▼0.6)
  • In 5 games: 10.5% (▼3.8)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼11.6)

Central Division, 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay 3 at Florida 1

• Tampa Bay leads series 2-0
• Tampa Bay now has a 83.6% chance of winning the series, up from 64.9%

Series schedule:

• May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
• May 18: Tampa Bay 3 at Florida 1
• May 20: Florida at Tampa Bay
• May 22: Florida at Tampa Bay
• May 24: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)
• May 26: Florida at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• May 28: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Florida has a 16.4% chance of winning (▼18.7)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼7.5)
  • In 6 games: 5.0% (▼6.7)
  • In 7 games: 11.4% (▼4.5)
• Tampa Bay has a 83.6% chance of winning (▲18.7)
  • In 7 games: 8.4% (▼3.5)
  • In 6 games: 18.2% (▼1.4)
  • In 5 games: 21.6% (▲4.0)
  • In 4 games: 35.4% (▲19.5)

West Division, 2 vs. 3

Minnesota 1 at Vegas 3

• Series tied 1-1
• Vegas now has a 52.7% chance of winning the series, up from 37.8%

Series schedule:

• May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
• May 18: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 3
• May 20: Vegas at Minnesota
• May 22: Vegas at Minnesota
• May 24: Minnesota at Vegas
• May 26: Vegas at Minnesota (if necessary)
• May 28: Minnesota at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Vegas has a 52.7% chance of winning (▲14.9)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 14.5% (▲6.2)
  • In 6 games: 18.0% (▲5.3)
  • In 7 games: 20.2% (▲3.3)
• Minnesota has a 47.3% chance of winning (▼14.9)
  • In 7 games: 14.5% (▲2.5)
  • In 6 games: 19.5% (▲0.5)
  • In 5 games: 13.4% (▼3.3)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼14.5)

Today’s Games

East Division, 2 vs. 3

Washington at Boston

• Series tied 1-1
• Washington has a 50.4% chance of winning the series

Central Division, 1 vs. 4

Nashville at Carolina

• Carolina leads series 1-0
• Carolina has a 78.9% chance of winning the series

North Division, 2 vs. 3

Winnipeg at Edmonton

• Series tied 0-0
• Edmonton has a 66.3% chance of winning the series

West Division, 1 vs. 4

St. Louis at Colorado

• Colorado leads series 1-0
• Colorado has a 85.8% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Nashville (4th in Central, 64 pts)

Carolina leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Carolina 79%, Nashville 21%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings: 

• Carolina: 1565, 5th overall
• Nashville: 1506, 15th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Carolina: 5 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Nashville: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Carolina: 5-2-3
• Nashville: 7-2-1

Series schedule:

• May 17: Nashville 2 at Carolina 5
• May 19: Nashville at Carolina
• May 21: Carolina at Nashville
• May 23: Carolina at Nashville
• May 25: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)
• May 27: Carolina at Nashville (if necessary)
• May 29: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Carolina has a 78.9% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 21.1%
  • In 5 games: 26.4%
  • In 6 games: 17.0%
  • In 7 games: 14.4%
• Nashville has a 21.1% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 9.0%
  • In 6 games: 8.5%
  • In 5 games: 3.7%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Florida (2nd in Central, 79 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Tampa Bay leads series 2-0

Chances of winning: Florida 16%, Tampa Bay 84%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Florida: 1553, 8th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1539, 11th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Florida: 5 regulation wins
• Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Florida: 8-2-0
• Tampa Bay: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

• May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
• May 18: Tampa Bay 3 at Florida 1
• May 20: Florida at Tampa Bay
• May 22: Florida at Tampa Bay
• May 24: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)
• May 26: Florida at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• May 28: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Florida has a 16.4% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 5.0%
  • In 7 games: 11.4%
• Tampa Bay has a 83.6% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 8.4%
  • In 6 games: 18.2%
  • In 5 games: 21.6%
  • In 4 games: 35.4%

East Division

Pittsburgh (1st in East, 77 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Series tied 1-1

Chances of winning: Pittsburgh 59%, New York Islanders 41%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Pittsburgh: 1575, 2nd overall
• NY Islanders: 1523, 12th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Pittsburgh: 4 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• New York Islanders: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Pittsburgh: 8-2-0
• New York Islanders: 3-4-3

Series schedule:

• May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
• May 18: New York Islanders 1 at Pittsburgh 2
• May 20: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
• May 22: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
• May 24: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh
• May 26: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders (if necessary)
• May 28: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Pittsburgh has a 59.4% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 17.8%
  • In 6 games: 20.4%
  • In 7 games: 21.1%
• NY Islanders has a 40.6% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 13.2%
  • In 6 games: 17.0%
  • In 5 games: 10.5%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Washington (2nd in East, 77 pts) vs. Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts)

Series tied 1-1

Chances of winning: Washington 50%, Boston 50%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Washington: 1572, 4th overall
• Boston: 1557, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Washington: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• Boston: 4 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Washington: 7-2-1
• Boston: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

• May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 17: Boston 4 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 19: Washington at Boston
• May 21: Washington at Boston
• May 23: Boston at Washington
• May 25: Washington at Boston (if necessary)
• May 27: Boston at Washington (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Washington has a 50.4% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 13.5%
  • In 6 games: 17.2%
  • In 7 games: 19.6%
• Boston has a 49.6% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.8%
  • In 6 games: 20.7%
  • In 5 games: 14.2%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. St. Louis (4th in West, 63 pts)

Colorado leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Colorado 86%, St. Louis 14%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1616, 1st overall
• St. Louis: 1517, 13th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Colorado: 5 regulation wins
• St. Louis: 3 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Colorado: 8-2-0
• St. Louis: 6-1-3

Series schedule:

• May 17: St. Louis 1 at Colorado 4
• May 19: St. Louis at Colorado
• May 21: Colorado at St. Louis
• May 23: Colorado at St. Louis
• May 25: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)
• May 27: Colorado at St. Louis (if necessary)
• May 29: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 85.8% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 27.0%
  • In 5 games: 29.8%
  • In 6 games: 16.7%
  • In 7 games: 12.4%
• St. Louis has a 14.2% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 6.4%
  • In 6 games: 5.6%
  • In 5 games: 2.2%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Minnesota (3rd in West, 75 pts)

Series tied 1-1

Chances of winning: Vegas 53%, Minnesota 47%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1575, 2nd overall
• Minnesota: 1550, 9th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Vegas: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins
• Minnesota: 4 regulation wins, 1 shootout win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Vegas: 7-3-0
• Minnesota: 5-3-2

Series schedule:

• May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
• May 18: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 3
• May 20: Vegas at Minnesota
• May 22: Vegas at Minnesota
• May 24: Minnesota at Vegas
• May 26: Vegas at Minnesota (if necessary)
• May 28: Minnesota at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Vegas has a 52.7% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 14.5%
  • In 6 games: 18.0%
  • In 7 games: 20.2%
• Minnesota has a 47.3% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.5%
  • In 6 games: 19.5%
  • In 5 games: 13.4%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

North Division

Toronto (1st in North, 77 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Chances of winning: Toronto 75%, Montreal 25%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Toronto: 1560, 6th overall
• Montreal: 1467, 21st overall

Head-to-head this year (10 games):

• Toronto: 6 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Montreal: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Toronto: 7-1-2
• Montreal: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

• May 20: Montreal at Toronto
• May 22: Montreal at Toronto
• May 24: Toronto at Montreal
• May 25: Toronto at Montreal
• May 27: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)
• May 29: Toronto at Montreal (if necessary)
• May 31: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Toronto has a 75.3% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 17.4%
  • In 5 games: 24.7%
  • In 6 games: 17.7%
  • In 7 games: 15.4%
• Montreal has a 24.7% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 8.1%
  • In 6 games: 9.0%
  • In 5 games: 5.1%
  • In 4 games: 2.6%

Edmonton (2nd in North, 72 pts) vs. Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts)

Chances of winning: Edmonton 69%, Winnipeg 31%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Edmonton: 1548, 10th overall
• Winnipeg: 1494, 17th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

• Edmonton: 7 regulation wins
• Winnipeg: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Edmonton: 7-3-0
• Winnipeg: 3-7-0

Series schedule:

• May 19: Winnipeg at Edmonton
• May 21: Winnipeg at Edmonton
• May 23: Edmonton at Winnipeg
• May 24: Edmonton at Winnipeg
• May 26: Winnipeg at Edmonton
• May 28: Edmonton at Winnipeg
• May 30: Winnipeg at Edmonton

Simulation results:

• Edmonton has a 66.3% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 12.9%
  • In 5 games: 20.8%
  • In 6 games: 16.5%
  • In 7 games: 16.1%
• Winnipeg has a 33.7% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 10.0%
  • In 6 games: 11.9%
  • In 5 games: 7.5%
  • In 4 games: 4.3%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the first-round playoffs started.

 1       Colorado Avalanche            21.4%
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins           9.6%
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           9.2%
 4       Carolina Hurricanes           9.0%
 5       Vegas Golden Knights          9.0%
 6       Washington Capitals           8.0%
 7       Florida Panthers              6.5%
 8       Edmonton Oilers               6.1%
 9       Boston Bruins                 5.4%
10       Minnesota Wild                4.3%
11       Tampa Bay Lightning           4.1%
12       New York Islanders            2.2%
13       Nashville Predators           1.7%
14       St. Louis Blues               1.6%
15       Winnipeg Jets                 1.3%
16       Montreal Canadiens            0.7%

 

Yet another overtime game last night!  There are clearly many closely-matched series in the first round of the playoffs this year.  Last night, it was Boston defeating Washington.  Both of their games have gone into overtime, and the series is now tied at 1.

The other two games, both featuring first-place teams against fourth-place teams, were strong victories for the top teams.  Carolina beat Nashville 5-2, putting them up 1-0 in the series, and Colorado beat St. Louis 4-1, also giving them a 1-0 series lead.

Tonight’s games all feature games where the lower-placed teams lead their series against higher-placed teams.  The Islanders play in Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay plays in Florida, and Minnesota plays in Vegas.  Pittsburgh, Florida, and Vegas all need a win, otherwise they’ll be down 2-0 heading on the road for the next 2 games.

Back in the regular season, there were NO games last night.  I think this was the first time since the season began.  There are two games remaining; Calgary is in Vancouver this afternoon, and tomorrow afternoon they switch stadiums and Vancouver plays in Calgary.  That will wind up the regular season, and the playoffs in the North Division will start later tomorrow night, with Winnipeg facing Edmonton.

Yesterday’s Games

East Division, 2 vs. 3

Boston 4 at Washington 3 (OT)

• Series tied 1-1
• Washington now has a 50.4% chance of winning the series, down from 70.5%

Series schedule:

• May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 17: Boston 4 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 19: Washington at Boston
• May 21: Washington at Boston
• May 23: Boston at Washington
• May 25: Washington at Boston (if necessary)
• May 27: Boston at Washington (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Washington has a 50.4% chance of winning (▼20.1)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼15.6)
  • In 5 games: 13.5% (▼9.5)
  • In 6 games: 17.2% (▲0.9)
  • In 7 games: 19.6% (▲4.0)
• Boston has a 49.6% chance of winning (▲20.1)
  • In 7 games: 14.8% (▲3.0)
  • In 6 games: 20.7% (▲8.6)
  • In 5 games: 14.2% (▲8.5)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Central Division, 1 vs. 4

Nashville 2 at Carolina 5

• Carolina leads series 1-0
• Carolina now has a 78.9% chance of winning the series, up from 67.0%

Series schedule:

• May 17: Nashville2  at Carolina 5
• May 19: Nashville at Carolina
• May 21: Carolina at Nashville
• May 23: Carolina at Nashville
• May 25: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)
• May 27: Carolina at Nashville (if necessary)
• May 29: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Carolina has a 78.9% chance of winning (▲11.9)
  • In 4 games: 21.1% (▲7.6)
  • In 5 games: 26.4% (▲5.5)
  • In 6 games: 17.0% (▲0.5)
  • In 7 games: 14.4% (▼1.7)
• Nashville has a 21.1% chance of winning (▼11.9)
  • In 7 games: 9.0% (▼0.9)
  • In 6 games: 8.5% (▼3.2)
  • In 5 games: 3.7% (▼3.6)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼4.1)

West Division, 1 vs. 4

St. Louis 1 at Colorado 4

• Colorado leads series 1-0
• Colorado now has a 85.9% chance of winning the series, up from 76.6%

Series schedule:

• May 17: St. Louis 1 at Colorado 4
• May 19: St. Louis at Colorado
• May 21: Colorado at St. Louis
• May 23: Colorado at St. Louis
• May 25: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)
• May 27: Colorado at St. Louis (if necessary)
• May 29: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Colorado has a 85.9% chance of winning (▲9.3)
  • In 4 games: 27.0% (▲8.4)
  • In 5 games: 29.8% (▲4.4)
  • In 6 games: 16.7% (▼0.8)
  • In 7 games: 12.4% (▼2.7)
• St. Louis has a 14.1% chance of winning (▼9.3)
  • In 7 games: 6.3% (▼1.3)
  • In 6 games: 5.6% (▼2.9)
  • In 5 games: 2.2% (▼2.6)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼2.4)

Today’s Games

East Division, 1 vs. 4

New York Islanders at Pittsburgh

• Islanders lead series 1-0
• Islanders have a 55.2% chance of winning the series

Central Division, 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay at Florida

• Tampa Bay leads series 1-0
• Tampa Bay has a 65.1% chance of winning the series

West Division, 2 vs. 3

Minnesota at Vegas

• Minnesota leads series 1-0
• Minnesota has a 62.2% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Nashville (4th in Central, 64 pts)

Chances of winning: Carolina 79%, Nashville 21%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings: 

• Carolina: 1565, 5th overall
• Nashville: 1506, 15th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Carolina: 5 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Nashville: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Carolina: 5-2-3
• Nashville: 7-2-1

Series schedule:

• May 17: Nashville2  at Carolina 5
• May 19: Nashville at Carolina
• May 21: Carolina at Nashville
• May 23: Carolina at Nashville
• May 25: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)
• May 27: Carolina at Nashville (if necessary)
• May 29: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Carolina has a 78.9% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 21.1%
  • In 5 games: 26.4%
  • In 6 games: 17.0%
  • In 7 games: 14.4%
• Nashville has a 21.1% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 9.0%
  • In 6 games: 8.5%
  • In 5 games: 3.7%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Florida (2nd in Central, 79 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Chances of winning: Florida 35%, Tampa Bay 65%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Florida: 1553, 8th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1539, 11th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Florida: 5 regulation wins
• Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Florida: 8-2-0
• Tampa Bay: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

• May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
• May 18: Tampa Bay at Florida
• May 20: Florida at Tampa Bay
• May 22: Florida at Tampa Bay
• May 24: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)
• May 26: Florida at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• May 28: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Florida has a 34.9% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 7.5%
  • In 6 games: 11.7%
  • In 7 games: 15.8%
• Tampa Bay has a 65.1% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 11.9%
  • In 6 games: 19.6%
  • In 5 games: 17.6%
  • In 4 games: 16.0%

East Division

Pittsburgh (1st in East, 77 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Chances of winning: Pittsburgh 45%, New York Islanders 55%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Pittsburgh: 1575, 2nd overall
• NY Islanders: 1523, 12th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Pittsburgh: 4 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• New York Islanders: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Pittsburgh: 8-2-0
• New York Islanders: 3-4-3

Series schedule:

• May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
• May 18: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh
• May 20: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
• May 22: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
• May 24: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh (if necessary)
• May 26: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders (if necessary)
• May 28: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Pittsburgh has a 44.8% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 10.7%
  • In 6 games: 15.3%
  • In 7 games: 18.8%
• NY Islanders has a 55.2% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 11.6%
  • In 6 games: 17.6%
  • In 5 games: 14.4%
  • In 4 games: 11.7%

Washington (2nd in East, 77 pts) vs. Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts)

Washington leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Washington 50%, Boston 50%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Washington: 1572, 4th overall
• Boston: 1557, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Washington: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• Boston: 4 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Washington: 7-2-1
• Boston: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

• May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 17: Boston 4 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 19: Washington at Boston
• May 21: Washington at Boston
• May 23: Boston at Washington
• May 25: Washington at Boston (if necessary)
• May 27: Boston at Washington (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Washington has a 50.4% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 13.5%
  • In 6 games: 17.2%
  • In 7 games: 19.6%
• Boston has a 49.6% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.8%
  • In 6 games: 20.7%
  • In 5 games: 14.2%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. St. Louis (4th in West, 63 pts)

Chances of winning: Colorado 77%, St. Louis 23%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1616, 1st overall
• St. Louis: 1517, 13th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Colorado: 5 regulation wins
• St. Louis: 3 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Colorado: 8-2-0
• St. Louis: 6-1-3

Series schedule:

• May 17: St. Louis at Colorado
• May 19: St. Louis at Colorado
• May 21: Colorado at St. Louis
• May 23: Colorado at St. Louis
• May 25: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)
• May 27: Colorado at St. Louis (if necessary)
• May 29: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 76.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 18.6%
  • In 5 games: 25.5%
  • In 6 games: 17.6%
  • In 7 games: 15.0%
• St. Louis has a 23.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 7.7%
  • In 6 games: 8.4%
  • In 5 games: 4.8%
  • In 4 games: 2.5%

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Minnesota (3rd in West, 75 pts)

Chances of winning: Vegas 38%, Minnesota 62%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1575, 2nd overall
• Minnesota: 1550, 9th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Vegas: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins
• Minnesota: 4 regulation wins, 1 shootout win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Vegas: 7-3-0
• Minnesota: 5-3-2

Series schedule:

• May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
• May 18: Minnesota at Vegas
• May 20: Vegas at Minnesota
• May 22: Vegas at Minnesota
• May 24: Minnesota at Vegas (if necessary)
• May 26: Vegas at Minnesota (if necessary)
• May 28: Minnesota at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Vegas has a 37.8% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 8.3%
  • In 6 games: 12.7%
  • In 7 games: 16.9%
• Minnesota has a 62.2% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 12.0%
  • In 6 games: 19.0%
  • In 5 games: 16.7%
  • In 4 games: 14.5%

North Division

Toronto (1st in North, 77 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Chances of winning: Toronto 75%, Montreal 25%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Toronto: 1560, 6th overall
• Montreal: 1467, 21st overall

Head-to-head this year (10 games):

• Toronto: 6 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Montreal: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Toronto: 7-1-2
• Montreal: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

• May 20: Montreal at Toronto
• May 22: Montreal at Toronto
• May 24: Toronto at Montreal
• May 25: Toronto at Montreal
• May 27: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)
• May 29: Toronto at Montreal (if necessary)
• May 31: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Toronto has a 75.3% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 17.4%
  • In 5 games: 24.7%
  • In 6 games: 17.7%
  • In 7 games: 15.4%
• Montreal has a 24.7% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 8.1%
  • In 6 games: 9.0%
  • In 5 games: 5.1%
  • In 4 games: 2.6%

Edmonton (2nd in North, 72 pts) vs. Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts)

Chances of winning: Edmonton 69%, Winnipeg 31%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Edmonton: 1548, 10th overall
• Winnipeg: 1494, 17th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

• Edmonton: 7 regulation wins
• Winnipeg: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Edmonton: 7-3-0
• Winnipeg: 3-7-0

Series schedule:

• May 19: Winnipeg at Edmonton
• May 21: Winnipeg at Edmonton
• May 23: Edmonton at Winnipeg
• May 24: Edmonton at Winnipeg
• May 26: Winnipeg at Edmonton
• May 28: Edmonton at Winnipeg
• May 30: Winnipeg at Edmonton

Simulation results:

• Edmonton has a 66.3% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 12.9%
  • In 5 games: 20.8%
  • In 6 games: 16.5%
  • In 7 games: 16.1%
• Winnipeg has a 33.7% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 10.0%
  • In 6 games: 11.9%
  • In 5 games: 7.5%
  • In 4 games: 4.3%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the first-round playoffs started.

 1       Colorado Avalanche            21.4%
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins           9.6%
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           9.2%
 4       Carolina Hurricanes           9.0%
 5       Vegas Golden Knights          9.0%
 6       Washington Capitals           8.0%
 7       Florida Panthers              6.5%
 8       Edmonton Oilers               6.1%
 9       Boston Bruins                 5.4%
10       Minnesota Wild                4.3%
11       Tampa Bay Lightning           4.1%
12       New York Islanders            2.2%
13       Nashville Predators           1.7%
14       St. Louis Blues               1.6%
15       Winnipeg Jets                 1.3%
16       Montreal Canadiens            0.7%

 

Well, I thought it was pretty exciting when the first game of the playoffs went into overtime.  And then, yesterday, the next two games did as well!  And the final game of the day saw Tampa Bay score with 1:14 left in the game to break a tie!  This bodes well for exciting playoff hockey!!!

And, yesterday, the lower-ranked teams all won the games.  So, as a result, we’ve calculated that each of the lower-ranked teams has a better chance of winning the series than the higher-ranked teams.  But, it’s still early in the playoffs, so it will be interesting to watch how that changes.

Yesterday’s Games

East Division, 1 vs. 4

New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)

• Islanders lead series 1-0
• Islanders now have a 55.2% chance of winning the series, up from 34.1%

Series schedule:

• May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
• May 18: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh
• May 20: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
• May 22: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
• May 24: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh (if necessary)
• May 26: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders (if necessary)
• May 28: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Pittsburgh has a 44.8% chance of winning (▼21.1)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼12.8)
  • In 5 games: 10.7% (▼10.0)
  • In 6 games: 15.3% (▼1.0)
  • In 7 games: 18.8% (▲2.7)
• NY Islanders has a 55.2% chance of winning (▲21.1)
  • In 7 games: 11.6% (▲1.5)
  • In 6 games: 17.6% (▲5.6)
  • In 5 games: 14.4% (▲6.8)
  • In 4 games: 11.7% (▲7.3)

West Division, 2 vs. 3

Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)

• Minnesota leads series 1-0
• Minnesota now has a 62.2% chance of winning the series, up from 41.8%

Series schedule:

• May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
• May 18: Minnesota at Vegas
• May 20: Vegas at Minnesota
• May 22: Vegas at Minnesota
• May 24: Minnesota at Vegas (if necessary)
• May 26: Vegas at Minnesota (if necessary)
• May 28: Minnesota at Vegas (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Vegas has a 37.8% chance of winning (▼20.4)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼9.7)
  • In 5 games: 8.3% (▼9.2)
  • In 6 games: 12.7% (▼2.3)
  • In 7 games: 16.9% (▲0.9)
• Minnesota has a 62.2% chance of winning (▲20.4)
  • In 7 games: 12.0% (▲0.6)
  • In 6 games: 19.0% (▲4.5)
  • In 5 games: 16.7% (▲6.7)
  • In 4 games: 14.5% (▲8.6)

Central Division, 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4

• Tampa Bay leads series 1-0

Series schedule:

• May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
• May 18: Tampa Bay at Florida
• May 20: Florida at Tampa Bay
• May 22: Florida at Tampa Bay
• May 24: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)
• May 26: Florida at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• May 28: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Florida has a 34.9% chance of winning (▼20.3)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼8.9)
  • In 5 games: 7.5% (▼8.9)
  • In 6 games: 11.7% (▼2.5)
  • In 7 games: 15.8%
• Tampa Bay has a 65.1% chance of winning (▲20.3)
  • In 7 games: 11.9%
  • In 6 games: 19.6% (▲4.3)
  • In 5 games: 17.6% (▲6.7)
  • In 4 games: 16.0% (▲9.3)

Today’s Games

East Division, 2 vs. 3

Boston at Washington

• Washington leads series 1-0
• Washington has a 70.5% chance of winning the series

Central Division, 1 vs. 4

Nashville at Carolina

• Series tied 0-0
• Carolina has a 67.2% chance of winning the series

West Division, 1 vs. 4

St. Louis at Colorado

• Series tied 0-0
• Colorado has a 76.6% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Nashville (4th in Central, 64 pts)

Chances of winning: Carolina 67%, Nashville 33%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings: 

• Carolina: 1565, 5th overall
• Nashville: 1506, 15th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Carolina: 5 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Nashville: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Carolina: 5-2-3
• Nashville: 7-2-1

Series schedule:

• May 17: Nashville at Carolina
• May 19: Nashville at Carolina
• May 21: Carolina at Nashville
• May 23: Carolina at Nashville
• May 25: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)
• May 27: Carolina at Nashville (if necessary)
• May 29: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Carolina has a 67.2% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 13.5 %
  • In 5 games: 20.9 %
  • In 6 games: 16.6 %
  • In 7 games: 16.2 %
• Nashville has a 32.8 % chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 9.8 %
  • In 6 games: 11.6 %
  • In 5 games: 7.3 %
  • In 4 games: 4.1 %

Florida (2nd in Central, 79 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Chances of winning: Florida 35%, Tampa Bay 65%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Florida: 1553, 8th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1539, 11th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Florida: 5 regulation wins
• Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Florida: 8-2-0
• Tampa Bay: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

• May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
• May 18: Tampa Bay at Florida
• May 20: Florida at Tampa Bay
• May 22: Florida at Tampa Bay
• May 24: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)
• May 26: Florida at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• May 28: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Florida has a 34.9% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 7.5%
  • In 6 games: 11.7%
  • In 7 games: 15.8%
• Tampa Bay has a 65.1% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 11.9%
  • In 6 games: 19.6%
  • In 5 games: 17.6%
  • In 4 games: 16.0%

East Division

Pittsburgh (1st in East, 77 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Chances of winning: Pittsburgh 45%, New York Islanders 55%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Pittsburgh: 1575, 2nd overall
• NY Islanders: 1523, 12th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Pittsburgh: 4 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• New York Islanders: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Pittsburgh: 8-2-0
• New York Islanders: 3-4-3

Series schedule:

• May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
• May 18: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh
• May 20: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
• May 22: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
• May 24: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh (if necessary)
• May 26: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders (if necessary)
• May 28: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Pittsburgh has a 44.8% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 10.7%
  • In 6 games: 15.3%
  • In 7 games: 18.8%
• NY Islanders has a 55.2% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 11.6%
  • In 6 games: 17.6%
  • In 5 games: 14.4%
  • In 4 games: 11.7%

Washington (2nd in East, 77 pts) vs. Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts)

Washington leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Washington 71%, Boston 29%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Washington: 1572, 4th overall
• Boston: 1557, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Washington: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• Boston: 4 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Washington: 7-2-1
• Boston: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

• May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 17: Boston at Washington
• May 19: Washington at Boston
• May 21: Washington at Boston
• May 23: Boston at Washington (if necessary)
• May 25: Washington at Boston (if necessary)
• May 27: Boston at Washington (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Washington has a 70.5% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 15.6%
  • In 5 games: 23.0%
  • In 6 games: 16.3%
  • In 7 games: 15.6%
• Boston has a 29.5% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 11.8%
  • In 6 games: 12.1%
  • In 5 games: 5.7%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. St. Louis (4th in West, 63 pts)

Chances of winning: Colorado 77%, St. Louis 23%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1616, 1st overall
• St. Louis: 1517, 13th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Colorado: 5 regulation wins
• St. Louis: 3 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Colorado: 8-2-0
• St. Louis: 6-1-3

Series schedule:

• May 17: St. Louis at Colorado
• May 19: St. Louis at Colorado
• May 21: Colorado at St. Louis
• May 23: Colorado at St. Louis
• May 25: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)
• May 27: Colorado at St. Louis (if necessary)
• May 29: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 76.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 18.6%
  • In 5 games: 25.5%
  • In 6 games: 17.6%
  • In 7 games: 15.0%
• St. Louis has a 23.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 7.7%
  • In 6 games: 8.4%
  • In 5 games: 4.8%
  • In 4 games: 2.5%

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Minnesota (3rd in West, 75 pts)

Chances of winning: Vegas 38%, Minnesota 62%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1575, 2nd overall
• Minnesota: 1550, 9th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Vegas: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins
• Minnesota: 4 regulation wins, 1 shootout win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Vegas: 7-3-0
• Minnesota: 5-3-2

Series schedule:

• May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
• May 18: Minnesota at Vegas
• May 20: Vegas at Minnesota
• May 22: Vegas at Minnesota
• May 24: Minnesota at Vegas (if necessary)
• May 26: Vegas at Minnesota (if necessary)
• May 28: Minnesota at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Vegas has a 37.8% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 8.3%
  • In 6 games: 12.7%
  • In 7 games: 16.9%
• Minnesota has a 62.2% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 12.0%
  • In 6 games: 19.0%
  • In 5 games: 16.7%
  • In 4 games: 14.5%

North Division

Toronto (1st in North, 77 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Chances of winning: Toronto 75%, Montreal 25%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Toronto: 1560, 6th overall
• Montreal: 1467, 21st overall

Head-to-head this year (10 games):

• Toronto: 6 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Montreal: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Toronto: 7-1-2
• Montreal: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

• May 20: Montreal at Toronto
• May 22: Montreal at Toronto
• May 24: Toronto at Montreal
• May 25: Toronto at Montreal
• May 27: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)
• May 29: Toronto at Montreal (if necessary)
• May 31: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Toronto has a 75.3% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 17.4%
  • In 5 games: 24.7%
  • In 6 games: 17.7%
  • In 7 games: 15.4%
• Montreal has a 24.7% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 8.1%
  • In 6 games: 9.0%
  • In 5 games: 5.1%
  • In 4 games: 2.6%

Edmonton (2nd in North, 72 pts) vs. Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts)

Chances of winning: Edmonton 69%, Winnipeg 31%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Edmonton: 1548, 10th overall
• Winnipeg: 1494, 17th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

• Edmonton: 7 regulation wins
• Winnipeg: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Edmonton: 7-3-0
• Winnipeg: 3-7-0

Series schedule:

• May 19: Winnipeg at Edmonton
• May 21: Winnipeg at Edmonton
• May 23: Edmonton at Winnipeg
• May 24: Edmonton at Winnipeg
• May 26: Winnipeg at Edmonton
• May 28: Edmonton at Winnipeg
• May 30: Winnipeg at Edmonton

Simulation results:

• Edmonton has a 66.3% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 12.9%
  • In 5 games: 20.8%
  • In 6 games: 16.5%
  • In 7 games: 16.1%
• Winnipeg has a 33.7% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 10.0%
  • In 6 games: 11.9%
  • In 5 games: 7.5%
  • In 4 games: 4.3%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the first-round playoffs started.

 1       Colorado Avalanche            21.4%
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins           9.6%
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           9.2%
 4       Carolina Hurricanes           9.0%
 5       Vegas Golden Knights          9.0%
 6       Washington Capitals           8.0%
 7       Florida Panthers              6.5%
 8       Edmonton Oilers               6.1%
 9       Boston Bruins                 5.4%
10       Minnesota Wild                4.3%
11       Tampa Bay Lightning           4.1%
12       New York Islanders            2.2%
13       Nashville Predators           1.7%
14       St. Louis Blues               1.6%
15       Winnipeg Jets                 1.3%
16       Montreal Canadiens            0.7%

 

Although the regular season still isn’t done, the playoffs have started already, and all the playoff teams have finished their regular season games.  There are only two games left, both between Calgary and Vancouver.  I’ll be releasing one more regular season McDonald NHL Power Ratings summary after those games are done, but will continue with the McDonald NHL Power Ratings Playoff Reports.

The big story this week was Colorado.  They won their last three games to claim the President’s Trophy as the top team in the regular season.  They’re also at the top of our McDonald NHL Power Rankings.  And, they’re our favourites to win the Stanley Cup.  We’re giving them a 21% chance of winning it all, much higher than second-favourite Pittsburgh at 10%.  But, that’s still only a bit better than a 1-in-5 chance; there’s 16 teams in the playoffs, and anything can happen!

The last playoff spot was clinched by Montreal.  We had given them a 98% chance of making the playoffs last week, and after a less-than-stellar 0-0-2 week, they ended up being the lowest-ranked team to make the playoffs, currently ranked 21st — that could change depending on the results of those last two Calgary-Vancouver games.

There was only one change in our top 5 teams, as Washington won their only game of the week and moved up 4 spots to move into 4th in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings.  That pushed Toronto out, dropping them to 6th, as they went 0-1-1 to finish their season.

The highest ranked teams that didn’t make the playoffs were the New York Rangers, who finished ranked 14th but finished well back in 5th place in the East Division, and Dallas, who finished ranked 16th and were 5th in the West Division, 4 points back of 15th-ranked Nashville.

And the worst team this year according to the McDonald NHL Power Rankings?  Buffalo, who finished with a league-worst 15-34-7 record for 37 points.

The top 5

1. Colorado Avalanche (1616, ▲16)

Record: 39-13-4, 1st in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: ✔
• Winning the President’s Trophy: ✔ (▲79)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 21% (▲6)

Last week: 3-0-0

• May 10: Won 2-1 @ Vegas Golden Knights (2nd, 1575)
• May 12: Won 6-0 vs. Los Angeles Kings (25th, 1444)
• May 13: Won 5-1 vs. Los Angeles Kings (25th, 1444)

Next week:

• End of regular season schedule

2 (tie). Pittsburgh Penguins ▲1 (1575)

Record: 37-16-3, 1st in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: ✔
• Winning the President’s Trophy: —
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▲1)

Last week: 0-0-0

• End of regular season schedule

Next week:

• End of regular season schedule

2 (tie). Vegas Golden Knights (1575, ▼2)

Record: 40-14-2, 2nd in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: ✔
• Winning the President’s Trophy: — (▼73)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▼2)

Last week: 1-1-0

• May 10: Lost 2-1 vs. Colorado Avalanche (1st, 1616)
• May 12: Won 6-0 @ San Jose Sharks (28th, 1440)

Next week:

• End of regular season schedule

4. Washington Capitals ▲4 (1572, ▲7)

Record: 36-15-5, 2nd in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: ✔
• Winning the President’s Trophy: —
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲1)

Last week: 1-0-0

• May 11: Won 2-1 vs. Boston Bruins (7th, 1557)

Next week:

• End of regular season schedule

5. Carolina Hurricanes ▼1 (1565, ▼8)

Record: 36-12-8, 1st in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: ✔
• Winning the President’s Trophy: — (▼6)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▼2)

Last week: 0-1-0

• May 10: Lost 5-0 @ Nashville Predators (15th, 1506)

Next week:

• End of regular season schedule

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

Overall Ratings

 1       Colorado Avalanche            1616 (▲16)
 2 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      1575
 2 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          1575 (▼2)
 4       Washington Capitals (▲4)      1572 (▲7)
 5       Carolina Hurricanes (▼1)      1565 (▼8)
 6       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      1560 (▼9)
 7       Boston Bruins (▼1)            1557 (▼9)
 8       Florida Panthers (▲2)         1553 (▲7)
 9       Minnesota Wild (▼3)           1550 (▼16)
10       Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          1548 (▼13)
11       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      1539 (▼7)
12       New York Islanders            1523 (▲2)
13       St. Louis Blues (▲1)          1517 (▲16)
14       New York Rangers (▼1)         1515
15       Nashville Predators           1506 (▲8)
16       Dallas Stars                  1495
17       Winnipeg Jets                 1494 (▲5)
18       Philadelphia Flyers           1479 (▲6)
19       Calgary Flames                1477 (▲6)
20       Ottawa Senators               1469 (▲1)
21       Montreal Canadiens            1467 (▲2)
22       Arizona Coyotes               1464
23       Vancouver Canucks (▲5)        1447 (▲8)
24       Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       1446
25       Los Angeles Kings (▼2)        1444 (▼8)
26       Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        1443
27       New Jersey Devils (▼3)        1441 (▼6)
28       San Jose Sharks (▼3)          1440 (▼6)
29       Columbus Blue Jackets         1430
30       Anaheim Ducks                 1415
31       Buffalo Sabres                1408

Chances of Winning Division

Central Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           ✔
 2 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            —
 2 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         —
 2 (tie) Dallas Stars                  —
 2 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             —
 2 (tie) Florida Panthers              —
 2 (tie) Nashville Predators           —
 2 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           —

East Division

 1       Pittsburgh Penguins           ✔
 2 (tie) Boston Bruins                 —
 2 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                —
 2 (tie) New York Islanders            —
 2 (tie) New York Rangers              —
 2 (tie) New Jersey Devils             —
 2 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           —
 2 (tie) Washington Capitals           —

West Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       ✔ (▲76)
 2 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            —
 2 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲1)          —
 2 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        —
 2 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲1)           —
 2 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1)          —
 2 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲1)          —
 2 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     — (▼76)

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           ✔
 2 (tie) Calgary Flames                —
 2 (tie) Edmonton Oilers               —
 2 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            —
 2 (tie) Ottawa Senators               —
 2 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             —
 2 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 —

Making the Playoffs

Central Division

 1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           ✔
 1 (tie) Florida Panthers              ✔
 1 (tie) Nashville Predators           ✔
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           ✔
 5 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            —
 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         —
 5 (tie) Dallas Stars                  —
 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             —

East Division

 1 (tie) Boston Bruins                 ✔
 1 (tie) New York Islanders            ✔
 1 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins           ✔
 1 (tie) Washington Capitals           ✔
 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                —
 5 (tie) New York Rangers              —
 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils             —
 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           —

West Division

 1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            ✔
 1 (tie) Minnesota Wild                ✔
 1 (tie) St. Louis Blues               ✔
 1 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          ✔
 5 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 —
 5 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               —
 5 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             —
 5 (tie) San Jose Sharks               —

North Division

 1 (tie) Edmonton Oilers               ✔
 1 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲3)       ✔ (▲2)
 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           ✔
 1 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 ✔
 5 (tie) Calgary Flames                — (▼2)
 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1)          —
 5 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        —

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       ✔ (▲79)

Colorado has won the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            21% (▲6)
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲3)      10% (▲1)
 3 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▼1)      9% (▼2)
 3 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      9% (▼2)
 3 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     9% (▼2)
 6       Washington Capitals           8% (▲1)
 7 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          6% (▼1)
 7 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲3)         6% (▲1)
 9       Boston Bruins (▼1)            5% (▼1)
10 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼2)           4% (▼2)
10 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           4% (▼1)
12 (tie) New York Islanders            2%
12 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲1)      2% (▲1)
12 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲1)          2% (▲1)
15 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▼2)       1%
15 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼2)            1%
17 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 —
17 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               —
17 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                —
17 (tie) Calgary Flames                —
17 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            —
17 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         —
17 (tie) Dallas Stars                  —
17 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             —
17 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             —
17 (tie) New York Rangers              —
17 (tie) New Jersey Devils             —
17 (tie) Ottawa Senators               —
17 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           —
17 (tie) San Jose Sharks               —
17 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             —