Shane's Computer Solution Repository

There’s just a little over two weeks until the regular season ends, and I’m disappointed to say that the race for the playoffs is a little boring.  Right now, 10 teams have clinched spots, and another 5 teams are pretty much shoe-ins.  The only interesting race is for the fourth playoff spot in the Central Division, where we’re giving Nashville an 87% chance of making it, versus 13% for Dallas.

In the Central Division, Carolina, Florida, and Tampa Bay have all clinched spots.  We expect Carolina will finish first in the division, giving them an 87% chance.  Tampa Bay could still take over first (10%), but likely not Florida (3%). Three teams remain in contention for the last playoff spot, although we’re giving Chicago less than a 1% chance of making it.

In the East Division, New York Islanders, Pittsburgh, and Washington have all made it to the playoffs, and we’re giving Boston a greater than 99% chance of moving on, although the Rangers mathematically could still make it in.  The race for 1st place is a little more interesting, with Pittsburgh the favourites (67%), followed by Washington (23%), Washington (7%), and the Islanders (4%).

In the West Division, Colorado, Minnesota, and Vegas have clinched, and although there are 4 teams with chances of making the playoffs, we’re expecting it to be St. Louis (97%), with Arizona (3%), Los Angeles (<1%), and San Jose (<1%) having a very slim chance.  Vegas has a 68% chance of winning the division, followed by Colorado (31%) and Minnesota (1%).

In the North Division, only Toronto has clinched a playoff spot, although Edmonton (>99%), Winnipeg (also >99%), and Montreal (96%) should also make it in.  Still having a chance are Calgary (3%) and Vancouver (1%).  And Toronto has all but won the division, as we’re giving them a 97% chance of doing just that, although we’re still giving Edmonton a 3% chance.  And it is Toronto.

The race for the President’s Trophy is down to a three-way race, not that anyone really wants to win it, since the top team rarely seems to win the Stanley Cup.  But anyways, it’s close between Vegas (42%) and Carolina (40%), with Colorado (16%) not ready to be counted out yet.

Our calculated probabilities of winning the Stanley Cup have Colorado the favourites, with a 14% chance, followed by Carolina (12%), Vegas (11%), Toronto (9%), and Pittsburgh (8%).  But then again, Toronto.

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

The top 5

1. Colorado Avalanche (1601, ▼8)

Record: 33-12-4, 2nd in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 16% (▼25)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 14% (▼3)

Last week: 2-2-0

• April 26: Lost 4-1 @ St. Louis Blues (14th, 1502)
• April 28: Lost 5-2 @ Vegas Golden Knights (2nd, 1580)
• April 30: Won 3-0 vs. San Jose Sharks (27th, 1441)
• May 1: Won 4-3 vs. San Jose Sharks (27th, 1441)

Next week:

• May 3: @ San Jose Sharks (27th, 1441)
• May 5: @ San Jose Sharks (27th, 1441)
• May 7: @ Los Angeles Kings (23th, 1446)
• May 8: @ Los Angeles Kings (23th, 1446)

2. Vegas Golden Knights (1580, ▼3)

Record: 36-12-2, 1st in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 42% (▲3)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 11%

Last week: 2-1-0

• April 28: Won 5-2 vs. Colorado Avalanche (1st, 1601)
• April 30: Lost 3-0 @ Arizona Coyotes (19th, 1474)
• May 1: Won in OT 3-2 @ Arizona Coyotes (19th, 1474)

Next week:

• May 3: @ Minnesota Wild (5th, 1568)
• May 5: @ Minnesota Wild (5th, 1568)
• May 7: vs. St. Louis Blues (14th, 1502)
• May 8: vs. St. Louis Blues (14th, 1502)

3. Carolina Hurricanes ▲1 (1578, ▲7)

Record: 34-10-7, 1st in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 40% (▲25)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 12% (▲2)

Last week: 3-0-1

• April 26: Lost in OT 4-3 @ Dallas Stars (17th, 1496)
• April 27: Won 5-1 @ Dallas Stars (17th, 1496)
• April 29: Won 3-1 vs. Detroit Red Wings (28th, 1434)
• May 1: Won in OT 2-1 vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (29th, 1430)

Next week:

• May 3: vs. Chicago Blackhawks (26th, 1442)
• May 4: vs. Chicago Blackhawks (26th, 1442)
• May 6: vs. Chicago Blackhawks (26th, 1442)
• May 8: @ Nashville Predators (15th, 1498)

4. Pittsburgh Penguins ▲1 (1570, ▲1)

Record: 34-15-3, 1st in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8%

Last week: 2-1-0

• April 27: Lost 3-1 vs. Boston Bruins (6th, 1567)
• April 29: Won in OT 5-4 @ Washington Capitals (7th, 1564)
• May 1: Won 3-0 @ Washington Capitals (7th, 1564)

Next week:

• May 3: @ Philadelphia Flyers (21th, 1456)
• May 4: @ Philadelphia Flyers (21th, 1456)
• May 6: vs. Buffalo Sabres (31th, 1406)
• May 8: vs. Buffalo Sabres (31th, 1406)

5. Minnesota Wild ▼2 (1568, ▼14)

Record: 32-14-4, 3rd in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: <1% (▼4)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▼3)

Last week: 1-1-1

• April 28: Lost 4-3 vs. St. Louis Blues (14th, 1502)
• April 29: Lost in OT 5-4 vs. St. Louis Blues (14th, 1502)
• May 1: Won in OT 4-3 vs. St. Louis Blues (14th, 1502)

Next week:

• May 3: vs. Vegas Golden Knights (2nd, 1580)
• May 5: vs. Vegas Golden Knights (2nd, 1580)
• May 7: vs. Anaheim Ducks (30th, 1409)
• May 8: vs. Anaheim Ducks (30th, 1409)

Overall Ratings

 1       Colorado Avalanche            1601 (▼8)
 2       Vegas Golden Knights          1580 (▼3)
 3       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      1578 (▲7)
 4       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      1570 (▲1)
 5       Minnesota Wild (▼2)           1568 (▼14)
 6       Boston Bruins (▲1)            1567 (▲17)
 7       Washington Capitals (▼1)      1564 (▼4)
 8       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1)      1560 (▲17)
 9       Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      1558 (▲16)
10       Edmonton Oilers (▼2)          1556 (▲11)
11       Florida Panthers (▲1)         1541 (▲7)
12       New York Islanders (▲1)       1536 (▲10)
13       New York Rangers (▼2)         1524 (▼12)
14       St. Louis Blues (▲4)          1502 (▲23)
15 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲1)      1498 (▼2)
15 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            1498 (▼22)
17       Dallas Stars (▼2)             1496 (▼12)
18       Montreal Canadiens (▲3)       1481 (▲7)
19       Arizona Coyotes (▼1)          1474 (▼5)
20       Calgary Flames                1472 (▼3)
21       Philadelphia Flyers (▼4)      1456 (▼25)
22       Ottawa Senators (▲4)          1451 (▲15)
23 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        1446 (▼3)
23 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲6)        1446 (▲25)
25       Vancouver Canucks (▼3)        1444 (▼24)
26       Chicago Blackhawks (▼3)       1442 (▼12)
27       San Jose Sharks               1441 (▲7)
28       Detroit Red Wings (▼3)        1434 (▼7)
29       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1)    1430 (▲3)
30       Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            1409 (▲4)
31       Buffalo Sabres (▼1)           1406 (▼12)

Chances of Winning Division

Central Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           87% (▲12)
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           10% (▼4)
 3       Florida Panthers              3% (▼7)
 4 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲2)       —
 4 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2)    —
 4 (tie) Dallas Stars                  —
 4 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲2)        —
 4 (tie) Nashville Predators           —

East Division

 1       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      67% (▲32)
 2       Washington Capitals (▼1)      23% (▼27)
 3       Boston Bruins                 7% (▼2)
 4       New York Islanders            4% (▼2)
 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲2)           —
 5 (tie) New York Rangers              —
 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲2)        —
 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           —

West Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     68% (▲22)
 2       Colorado Avalanche (▼1)       31% (▼17)
 3       Minnesota Wild                1% (▼5)
 4 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 —
 4 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               —
 4 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             —
 4 (tie) San Jose Sharks               —
 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues               —

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           97% (▲12)
 2       Edmonton Oilers               3% (▼8)
 3 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲3)           —
 3 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲1)       —
 3 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲3)          —
 3 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        —
 3 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 — (▼4)

Making the Playoffs

Central Division

 1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           ✔
 1 (tie) Florida Panthers              ✔
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           ✔
 4       Nashville Predators           83% (▲26)
 5       Dallas Stars                  17% (▼22)
 6       Chicago Blackhawks            <1% (▼5)
 7 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    —
 7 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        —

East Division

 1 (tie) New York Islanders (▲2)       ✔ (▲2)
 1 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins           ✔
 1 (tie) Washington Capitals           ✔
 4       Boston Bruins                >99% (▲3)
 5       New York Rangers              <1% (▼5)
 6 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           —
 6 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1)        —
 6 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      —

West Division

 1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            ✔
 1 (tie) Minnesota Wild                ✔
 1 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          ✔
 4       St. Louis Blues               97% (▲45)
 5       Arizona Coyotes               3% (▼37)
 6 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             <1% (▼7)
 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1)          <1% (▼1)
 8       Anaheim Ducks                 —

North Division

 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           ✔
 2 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          >99%
 2 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            >99%
 4       Montreal Canadiens            96% (▲31)
 5       Calgary Flames (▲1)           3% (▼12)
 6       Vancouver Canucks (▼1)        1% (▼20)
 7       Ottawa Senators               —

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     42% (▲3)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      40% (▲25)
 3       Colorado Avalanche (▼2)       16% (▼25)
 4 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      1%
 4 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲3)      1% (▲1)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            14% (▼3)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      12% (▲2)
 3       Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     11%
 4       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲3)      9% (▲3)
 5       Pittsburgh Penguins           8%
 6 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲3)            7% (▲2)
 6 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          7% (▲1)
 6 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲3)      7% (▲2)
 6 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼1)      7% (▼1)
10       Minnesota Wild (▼6)           6% (▼3)
11       Florida Panthers              4%
12       New York Islanders            3%
13       Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            2% (▼1)
14 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            1%
14 (tie) Nashville Predators           1%
14 (tie) St. Louis Blues               1%
17 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲1)          <1%
17 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲1)           <1%
17 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       <1%
17 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼3)             <1% (▼1)
17 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        <1%
17 (tie) New York Rangers (▲1)         <1%
17 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1)          <1%
17 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        <1%
25 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼7)            —
25 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲4)           —
25 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲4)    —
25 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼7)        —
25 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲4)        —
25 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▼7)          —
25 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼7)      —

 

The NHL season is starting to wind down, and we’re starting to see teams clinching playoff spots, or be eliminated from playoff contention.  Last week, Buffalo was the only team without a chance of making the playoffs, but now Columbus and New Jersey have also been added to that list.  And, this week we’ve got the first three teams to clinch playoff spots: Colorado, Vegas, and Minnesota, the teams currently ranked 1, 2, and 3 in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings, and they are all in the West Division!

Colorado had a layoff for part of the last two weeks after three players entered the COVID protocol, but they are back in action now.  Since then, they’ve played twice, both times against St. Louis, and they split those games.  As a result, they dropped 5 rating points from last week, but still have a sizable lead in the ratings, and are still the only team rated above 1600 points.  They are in second place in the division, 4 points behind Vegas but with 2 games in hand.  We’re giving them a 48% chance of winning the division, compared to Vegas’ 46% chance (and Minnesota’s 6%).  Winning the division could be key to making it out of the division in the playoffs, as the top team plays the fourth team, and right now Arizona is in that last playoff spot but are ranked 18th in the league!

Vegas went 3-0-0 this week and stayed 2nd in our rankings, gaining 6 rating points.  They currently have a 9 game winning streak!  One of their wins this week was a shootout victory over 27th-ranked San Jose, and they had two regulation wins, one against San Jose and one against 31st-ranked Anaheim.  A key game coming up this week is against Colorado on Wednesday night; that one should be quite interesting and may be key to whether Colorado can catch Vegas for first place in the division.

Minnesota had a big week, going 4-0-0, gaining 24 rating points to move into 3rd spot.  They beat Arizona twice, and 24th-ranked Los Angeles and 27th-ranked San Jose once each.  They don’t play either of the top two teams this week, instead having 3 games in a row against 18th-ranked St. Louis.

Carolina moved into the top 5, placing 4th after going 2-0-2 this week.  They split a pair with Tampa Bay, with a regulation win and an overtime loss, then split another pair with Florida, again with a regulation win and an overtime loss.

Pittsburgh continued their climb, moving into the 5th spot in our rankings.  They went 4-0-0, but three of their wins were against 29th-ranked New Jersey.  Their other win was over 7th-ranked Boston.  They have a tough week coming up, with another game against Boston, followed by two against 6th-ranked Washington.

The race for the playoffs looks pretty interesting in three of the divisions.  In the East Division, we think things are pretty much wrapped up, with Pittsburgh, Washington, New York Islanders, and Boston all pretty much assured of a playoff spot, although we are giving the New York Rangers an 8% chance of squeaking in.  In the other three divisions, though, although 3 spots are pretty much solidified, the battle for the last spot is interesting.  In the Central Division, Carolina, Florida, and Tampa Bay are pretty much assured a spot, but Nashville (57%) and Dallas (39%) are fighting for that last spot, and even Chicago (5%) has a bit of a chance.  In the West, St. Louis (52%), Arizona (40%), and Los Angeles (7%) have a shot.  And in the Northern Division, we think that Edmonton, Toronto, and Winnipeg all have spots wrapped up, with Montreal (65%), Vancouver (21%) and Calgary (15%) all having reasonable chances at the last spot.

I am concerned a bit about the accuracy of our ratings.  With teams not playing against teams outside of their division, it is possible that Colorado, Vegas, and Minnesota are just so much better than the other teams in their division that they have higher ratings than they normally would.  And, we won’t really know until the semi-finals of the playoffs, as that will be the first time they play a team from outside their division.  But, even then, anything can happen in the playoffs, as Tampa Bay found out a couple seasons ago, when they were by far the top-ranked team, but got swept in the first round of the playoffs by Columbus.

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

The top 5

1. Colorado Avalanche (1609, ▼5)

Record: 31-10-4, 2nd in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 100%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 41% (▼17)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 17% (▼3)

Last week: 1-1-0

• April 22: Won 4-2 @ St. Louis Blues (18th, 1479)
• April 24: Lost 5-3 @ St. Louis Blues (18th, 1479)

Next week:

• April 26: @ St. Louis Blues (18th, 1479)
• April 28: @ Vegas Golden Knights (2nd, 1583)
• April 30: vs. San Jose Sharks (27th, 1434)
• May 1: vs. San Jose Sharks (27th, 1434)

2. Vegas Golden Knights (1583, ▲6)

Record: 34-11-2, 1st in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 100%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 39% (▲12)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 11% (▲1)

Last week: 3-0-0

• April 19: Won in SO 3-2 vs. San Jose Sharks (27th, 1434)
• April 21: Won 5-2 vs. San Jose Sharks (27th, 1434)
• April 24: Won 5-1 @ Anaheim Ducks (31th, 1405)

Next week:

• April 28: vs. Colorado Avalanche (1st, 1609)
• April 30: @ Arizona Coyotes (18th, 1479)
• May 1: @ Arizona Coyotes (18th, 1479)

3. Minnesota Wild ▲1 (1582, ▲24)

Record: 31-13-3, 3rd in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 100%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 4% (▲3)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲3)

Last week: 4-0-0

• April 19: Won 5-2 @ Arizona Coyotes (18th, 1479)
• April 21: Won 4-1 @ Arizona Coyotes (18th, 1479)
• April 23: Won 4-2 @ Los Angeles Kings (24th, 1449)
• April 24: Won 6-3 @ San Jose Sharks (27th, 1434)

Next week:

• April 28: vs. St. Louis Blues (18th, 1479)
• April 29: vs. St. Louis Blues (18th, 1479)
• May 1: vs. St. Louis Blues (18th, 1479)

4. Carolina Hurricanes ▲2 (1571, ▲17)

Record: 31-10-6, 1st in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 15% (▲5)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▲2)

Last week: 2-0-2

• April 19: Lost in OT 3-2 @ Tampa Bay Lightning (10th, 1542)
• April 20: Won 4-1 @ Tampa Bay Lightning (10th, 1542)
• April 22: Won 4-2 @ Florida Panthers (12th, 1534)
• April 24: Lost in OT 4-3 @ Florida Panthers (12th, 1534)

Next week:

• April 26: @ Dallas Stars (15th, 1508)
• April 27: @ Dallas Stars (15th, 1508)
• April 29: vs. Detroit Red Wings (25th, 1441)
• May 1: vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (28th, 1427)

5. Pittsburgh Penguins ▲2 (1569, ▲19)

Record: 32-14-3, 1st in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99% (▲3)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲2)

Last week: 4-0-0

• April 20: Won 7-6 vs. New Jersey Devils (29th, 1421)
• April 22: Won 5-1 vs. New Jersey Devils (29th, 1421)
• April 24: Won 4-2 vs. New Jersey Devils (29th, 1421)
• April 25: Won 1-0 vs. Boston Bruins (7th, 1550)

Next week:

• April 27: vs. Boston Bruins (7th, 1550)
• April 29: @ Washington Capitals (6th, 1568)
• May 1: @ Washington Capitals (6th, 1568)

Overall Ratings

 1       Colorado Avalanche            1609 (▼5)
 2       Vegas Golden Knights          1583 (▲6)
 3       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           1582 (▲24)
 4       Carolina Hurricanes (▲2)      1571 (▲17)
 5       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2)      1569 (▲19)
 6       Washington Capitals (▼3)      1568 (▲8)
 7       Boston Bruins (▼2)            1550 (▼6)
 8       Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          1545 (▼5)
 9       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲3)      1543 (▲9)
10       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      1542 (▼7)
11       New York Rangers (▼1)         1536 (▼5)
12       Florida Panthers (▲1)         1534 (▲2)
13       New York Islanders (▲1)       1526 (▼1)
14       Winnipeg Jets (▼3)            1520 (▼17)
15       Dallas Stars                  1508 (▼6)
16       Nashville Predators           1500 (▲14)
17       Philadelphia Flyers (▲2)      1481 (▲1)
18 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▼1)          1479 (▼5)
18 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲2)          1479 (▲5)
20       Calgary Flames (▲1)           1475 (▲5)
21       Montreal Canadiens (▼3)       1474 (▼9)
22       Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        1468 (▲5)
23       Chicago Blackhawks (▼1)       1454 (▼14)
24       Los Angeles Kings             1449 (▼8)
25       Detroit Red Wings (▲2)        1441 (▲6)
26       Ottawa Senators (▲3)          1436 (▲12)
27       San Jose Sharks (▼2)          1434 (▼6)
28       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼2)    1427 (▼12)
29       New Jersey Devils (▼1)        1421 (▼10)
30       Buffalo Sabres (▼1)           1418 (▼6)
31       Anaheim Ducks                 1405 (▼11)

Chances of Winning Division

Central Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           75% (▲20)
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           14% (▼12)
 3       Florida Panthers              10% (▼8)
 4 (tie) Dallas Stars                  <1%
 4 (tie) Nashville Predators           <1%
 8 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▼4)       —
 8 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼4)    —
 8 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼4)        —

East Division

 1 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      46% (▲22)
 1 (tie) Washington Capitals           46% (▲6)
 3       New York Islanders            5% (▼15)
 4       Boston Bruins                 3% (▼13)
 5 (tie) New York Rangers              <1%
 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1%
 7 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                —
 7 (tie) New Jersey Devils             —

West Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            48% (▼17)
 2       Vegas Golden Knights          46% (▲13)
 3       Minnesota Wild                6% (▲4)
 4 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲4)            —
 4 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               —
 4 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             —
 4 (tie) San Jose Sharks               —
 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues               —

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           85% (▲26)
 2       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          11% (▼7)
 3       Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            4% (▼19)
 4 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
 4 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             <1%
 6 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼2)           —
 6 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1)          —

Making the Playoffs

Central Division

 1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           >99%
 1 (tie) Florida Panthers              >99%
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           >99%
 4       Nashville Predators (▲1)      57% (▲19)
 5       Dallas Stars (▼1)             39% (▼1)
 6       Chicago Blackhawks            5% (▼17)
 7       Detroit Red Wings             <1%
 8       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1)    —

East Division

 1 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      >99% (▲3)
 1 (tie) Washington Capitals           >99% (▲2)
 3       New York Islanders            98% (▲4)
 4       Boston Bruins                 94% (▲3)
 5       New York Rangers              8% (▼12)
 6       Philadelphia Flyers           <1%
 7 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           —
 7 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼1)        —

West Division

 1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            ✔
 1 (tie) Minnesota Wild                ✔
 1 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          ✔
 4       St. Louis Blues (▲1)          52% (▲14)
 5       Arizona Coyotes (▼1)          40% (▼7)
 6       Los Angeles Kings             7% (▼5)
 7       San Jose Sharks               1% (▼2)
 8       Anaheim Ducks                 <1%

North Division

 1 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲2)          >99% (▲1)
 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           >99%
 1 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 >99%
 4       Montreal Canadiens            65% (▼12)
 5       Vancouver Canucks             21% (▲8)
 6       Calgary Flames                15% (▲5)
 7       Ottawa Senators               <1%

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Colorado Avalanche            41% (▼17)
 2       Vegas Golden Knights          39% (▲12)
 3       Carolina Hurricanes           15% (▲5)
 4       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           4% (▲3)
 5 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      1% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲3)      1% (▲1)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            17% (▼3)
 2       Vegas Golden Knights          11% (▲1)
 3       Carolina Hurricanes           10% (▲2)
 4       Minnesota Wild (▲2)           9% (▲3)
 5 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      8% (▲2)
 5 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼1)      8% (▲1)
 7 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          6%
 7 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲3)      6% (▲1)
 9 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼3)            5% (▼1)
 9 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼5)      5% (▼2)
11       Florida Panthers (▼1)         4% (▼1)
12 (tie) New York Islanders (▲1)       3%
12 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼2)            3% (▼2)
14 (tie) Dallas Stars                  1%
14 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            1%
14 (tie) Nashville Predators           1%
14 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲5)          1% (▲1)
18 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            <1%
18 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▼4)          <1% (▼1)
18 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲1)           <1%
18 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       <1%
18 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        <1%
18 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        <1%
18 (tie) New York Rangers (▼4)         <1% (▼1)
18 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1)          <1%
18 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      <1%
18 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1)          <1%
18 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        <1%
29 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲2)           —
29 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼10)   —
29 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼10)       —

 

It’s been an interesting week at both the top and the bottom of the rankings.  Colorado has retained top spot in the rankings, but haven’t played since April 14th, as some of their players have entered the COVID protocol.  They’ve had three games postponed, and they expect to play their next game on April 22nd.  There’s lots of competition for the top 5 rankings, as the third- through ninth-ranked teams are only 11 rating points apart!  Meanwhile, at the bottom end, Buffalo has managed to crawl out of last place in our rankings, all the way up to 29th(!), but are the first team to be eliminated from playoff contention.

Colorado is the top team in our rankings, for the third week in a row.  They went 2-0-0, with wins against 17th-ranked Arizona and 20th-ranked St. Louis before entering the COVID protocol.  They gained 10 rating points, and extended their lead in the ratings.  But, it will be interesting to see if their layoff helps or hurts them.  They have two games this week against St. Louis (a third game against them is postponed), so we’ll want to keep an eye on that.

Vegas had a big week, going 4-0-0 and jumping from 6th to 2nd place in our rankings.  They also picked up 23 rating points!  Although all four of their games were wins in regulation time, they were against 24th-ranked Los Angeles and 31st-ranked Anaheim.  And they’ve got an easy week coming up again, with two games against 25th-ranked San Jose and one more against Anaheim.  They’re in a tough division, with 3 teams in our top 5 (Colorado, Vegas, and Minnesota), so we’ll see how they do when they play better teams.

Washington retained 3rd spot in our rankings, despite going 2-2-0 this week.  They split a pair with 19th-ranked Philadelphia, lost to lowly Buffalo, and closed off the week with a loss to 5th-ranked Boston.  They lost 6 rating points, but still stayed 3rd in the rankings.

Minnesota jumped 4 spots to take 4th place in our rankings.  They went 3-0-0, and picked up 15 rating points.  They beat 17th-ranked Arizona, then beat 25th-ranked San Jose twice.  They’ve got two more games coming up against Arizona, then single games against Los Angeles and San Jose.  It’s interesting that the top 3 West Division teams don’t play each other at all this week!

Rounding out the top 5 is Boston.  They went 4-0-0, with a shootout win against Buffalo, followed by two wins against the 14th-ranked Islanders and one against 3rd-ranked Washington.  They jumped 6 spots in our rankings, and hope to improve further with three straight games against Buffalo, followed by a game against 7th-ranked Pittsburgh.

Other big positive movers this week were the New York Rangers and Buffalo.  The Rangers went 4-0-0 and gained 23 rating points to move to 10th in the rankings.  They saw their chance of making the playoffs improve from 14% to 20%, but it may be too late for them.  Buffalo went 2-1-1 and gained 18 rating points, with a shootout loss to Boston, a win against Washington, and a split with Pittsburgh.  However, as mentioned previously, they have been eliminated from playoff contention.

There were also some big negative movers.  San Jose lost 29 rating points, going 0-4-0, with two losses to last-ranked Anaheim and two losses to 4th-ranked Minnesota.  New Jersey lost 23 rating points, going 0-4-0, with all four games coming against the Rangers.  And Toronto, despite being the most likely team to win the North Division (59%), lost 21 rating points after going 0-2-2.  They are in first place in the North Division standings, but are currently only the third-best team in that division, behind 7th-ranked Edmonton and 11th-ranked Winnipeg.

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

The top 5

1. Colorado Avalanche (1614, ▲10)

Record: 30-9-4, 1st in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 58% (▲20)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 20% (▲3)

Last week: 2-0-0

• April 12: Won 4-2 vs. Arizona Coyotes (17th, 1484)
• April 14: Won 4-3 @ St. Louis Blues (20th, 1474)
• April 16: Postponed vs. Los Angeles Kings (24th, 1457)
• April 18: Postponed vs. Los Angeles Kings (24th, 1457)

Next week:

• April 20: Postponed @ St. Louis Blues (20th, 1474)
• April 22: @ St. Louis Blues (20th, 1474)
• April 24: @ St. Louis Blues (20th, 1474)

2. Vegas Golden Knights ▲4 (1577, ▲23)

Record: 31-11-2, 2nd in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 27% (▲18)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▲3)

Last week: 4-0-0

• April 12: Won 4-2 @ Los Angeles Kings (24th, 1457)
• April 14: Won 6-2 @ Los Angeles Kings (24th, 1457)
• April 16: Won 4-0 @ Anaheim Ducks (31th, 1416)
• April 18: Won 5-2 @ Anaheim Ducks (31th, 1416)

Next week:

• April 19: vs. San Jose Sharks (25th, 1440)
• April 21: vs. San Jose Sharks (25th, 1440)
• April 24: @ Anaheim Ducks (31th, 1416)

3. Washington Capitals (1560, ▼6)

Record: 29-13-4, 1st in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 98% (▼1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: <1% (▼4)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▼2)

Last week: 2-2-0

• April 13: Won 6-1 vs. Philadelphia Flyers (19th, 1480)
• April 15: Lost 5-2 vs. Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1424)
• April 17: Won 6-3 @ Philadelphia Flyers (19th, 1480)
• April 18: Lost 6-3 @ Boston Bruins (5th, 1556)

Next week:

• April 22: @ New York Islanders (14th, 1527)
• April 24: @ New York Islanders (14th, 1527)

4. Minnesota Wild ▲4 (1558, ▲15)

Record: 27-13-3, 3rd in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99% (▲1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 1% (▲1)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▲1)

Last week: 3-0-0

• April 14: Won 5-2 vs. Arizona Coyotes (17th, 1484)
• April 16: Won 3-2 vs. San Jose Sharks (25th, 1440)
• April 17: Won 5-2 vs. San Jose Sharks (25th, 1440)

Next week:

• April 19: @ Arizona Coyotes (17th, 1484)
• April 21: @ Arizona Coyotes (17th, 1484)
• April 23: @ Los Angeles Kings (24th, 1457)
• April 24: @ San Jose Sharks (25th, 1440)

5. Boston Bruins ▲6 (1556, ▲17)

Record: 25-12-6, 4th in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 91% (▲7)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▲2)

Last week: 4-0-0

• April 13: Won in SO 3-2 vs. Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1424)
• April 15: Won 4-1 vs. New York Islanders (14th, 1527)
• April 16: Won 3-0 vs. New York Islanders (14th, 1527)
• April 18: Won 6-3 vs. Washington Capitals (3rd, 1560)

Next week:

• April 20: @ Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1424)
• April 22: @ Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1424)
• April 23: @ Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1424)
• April 25: @ Pittsburgh Penguins (7th, 1550)

Overall Ratings

 1       Colorado Avalanche            1614 (▲10)
 2       Vegas Golden Knights (▲4)     1577 (▲23)
 3       Washington Capitals           1560 (▼6)
 4       Minnesota Wild (▲4)           1558 (▲15)
 5       Boston Bruins (▲6)            1556 (▲17)
 6       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      1554 (▲1)
 7 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲2)          1550 (▲8)
 7 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼3)      1550 (▼6)
 9       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼7)      1549 (▼19)
10       New York Rangers (▲4)         1541 (▲23)
11       Winnipeg Jets                 1537 (▼2)
12       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼7)      1534 (▼21)
13       Florida Panthers              1532 (▲11)
14       New York Islanders (▼4)       1527 (▼13)
15       Dallas Stars                  1514 (▲11)
16       Nashville Predators           1486 (▼4)
17       Arizona Coyotes (▲3)          1484 (▼2)
18       Montreal Canadiens            1483 (▼5)
19       Philadelphia Flyers (▼3)      1480 (▼10)
20       St. Louis Blues (▼1)          1474 (▼13)
21       Calgary Flames (▲3)           1470 (▲6)
22       Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       1468 (▲2)
23       Vancouver Canucks (▲2)        1463 (▲1)
24       Los Angeles Kings (▼3)        1457 (▼13)
25       San Jose Sharks (▼3)          1440 (▼29)
26       Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    1439 (▼12)
27       Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        1435 (▲10)
28       New Jersey Devils (▼2)        1431 (▼23)
29 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲2)           1424 (▲18)
29 (tie) Ottawa Senators               1424 (▲13)
31       Anaheim Ducks (▼1)            1416 (▲9)

Chances of Winning Division

Central Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           55% (▲9)
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      26% (▼20)
 3       Florida Panthers              18% (▲11)
 4 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%
 4 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         <1%
 4 (tie) Dallas Stars                  <1%
 4 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
 4 (tie) Nashville Predators           <1%

East Division

 1       Washington Capitals           40% (▼3)
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      24% (▼2)
 3       New York Islanders (▼1)       20% (▼7)
 4       Boston Bruins                 16% (▲12)
 5 (tie) New York Rangers              <1%
 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1%
 7 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▼2)           —
 7 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼2)        —

West Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            65% (▼8)
 2       Vegas Golden Knights          33% (▲9)
 3       Minnesota Wild                2% (▼1)
 4 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1%
 4 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             <1%
 4 (tie) San Jose Sharks               <1%
 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues               <1%
 8       Anaheim Ducks (▼4)            —

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           59% (▼19)
 2       Winnipeg Jets                 23% (▲6)
 3       Edmonton Oilers               18% (▲14)
 4 (tie) Calgary Flames                <1%
 4 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
 4 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             <1%
 7       Ottawa Senators (▼3)          —

Making the Playoffs

Central Division

 1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           >99%
 1 (tie) Florida Panthers              >99%
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           >99%
 4       Dallas Stars (▲1)             40% (▲13)
 5       Nashville Predators (▼1)      38% (▼15)
 6       Chicago Blackhawks            22% (▲2)
 7 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         <1% (▼1)
 7 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        <1%

East Division

 1       Washington Capitals           98% (▼1)
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1)      97% (▼2)
 3       New York Islanders (▼2)       94% (▼5)
 4       Boston Bruins                 91% (▲7)
 5       New York Rangers              20% (▲6)
 6 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1)        <1%
 6 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1% (▼6)
 8       Buffalo Sabres (▼1)           —

West Division

 1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            >99%
 1 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲2)           >99% (▲1)
 1 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          >99%
 4       Arizona Coyotes (▲1)          47% (▲17)
 5       St. Louis Blues (▼1)          38% (▼5)
 6       Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        12%
 7       San Jose Sharks (▼1)          3% (▼12)
 8       Anaheim Ducks                 <1%

North Division

 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           >99%
 1 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 >99%
 3       Edmonton Oilers               99%
 4       Montreal Canadiens            77% (▼7)
 5       Vancouver Canucks             13% (▲4)
 6       Calgary Flames                10% (▲2)
 7       Ottawa Senators               <1%

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Colorado Avalanche            58% (▲20)
 2       Vegas Golden Knights (▲3)     27% (▲18)
 3       Carolina Hurricanes (▼1)      10% (▼5)
 4       Tampa Bay Lightning           2% (▼12)
 5 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲3)         1%
 5 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲6)           1% (▲1)
 5 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼3)      1% (▼14)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            20% (▲3)
 2       Vegas Golden Knights (▲4)     10% (▲3)
 3       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      8%
 4 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼2)      7% (▼3)
 4 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼1)      7% (▼2)
 6 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲6)            6% (▲2)
 6 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲2)          6% (▲1)
 6 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲2)           6% (▲1)
 6 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins           6% (▼1)
10 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲2)         5% (▲1)
10 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼6)      5% (▼3)
10 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼2)            5%
13       New York Islanders (▼5)       3% (▼2)
14 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲1)          1%
14 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲1)             1%
14 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            1% (▼1)
14 (tie) New York Rangers (▲1)         1%
14 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲1)      1%
19 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            <1%
19 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲1)           <1%
19 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       <1%
19 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    <1%
19 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        <1%
19 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        <1%
19 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1)        <1%
19 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1)          <1%
19 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      <1%
19 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1)          <1%
19 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼4)          <1% (▼1)
19 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        <1%
31       Buffalo Sabres (▼11)          —

 

It’s been another interesting week in the NHL.  Lots of exciting games, some weak teams beating some better teams, and no games from Vancouver due to COVID.  Because of Vancouver’s COVID troubles, the season has been extended again, now to May 16th, with the Canucks playing the last 3 games on the schedule.

Colorado remains in top spot in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings.  They are the first team this year to rise above the 1600 rating mark, gaining 9 points to 1604.  They went 3-1-0, splitting a pair with 8th-ranked Minnesota, then beating 30th-ranked Anaheim twice.  They are also the favourite to win the President’s Trophy, which we’re giving them a 38% chance of doing, and the Stanley Cup, at 17%.  With games next week against St. Louis, Arizona, and Los Angeles (19th, 20th, and 21st!), we expect to see them improve their rating even higher.

Tampa Bay and Washington exchanged spots this week, with Tampa Bay now at number 2 and Washington at 3.  Tampa Bay started the week with a loss to 27th-ranked Columbus, but turned around 2 nights later to beat them, then ended the week with a shutout win over 16th-ranked Nashville.  Washington didn’t have such a good week, going 2-2-0, losing to the Islanders (10th) and Boston (11th), squeaking by the league-worst Sabres 4-3, and finishing the week with a strong 8-1 drubbing of Boston.

Pittsburgh has come out of nowhere to move into the top 5 for the first time this season.  They moved up 4 ranking spots last week, and now sit in 4th.  They had a 3-1-0 record last week, splitting a pair with the 14th-ranked Rangers, then beating 26th-ranked New Jersey twice.  They look to have an easy week next week, playing fading 16th-ranked Philadelphia once and lowly Buffalo twice.

Rounding out the top 5 is Toronto, who return to the top 5 with a big jump from 12th last week.  They went 3-0-0, beating Calgary, Montreal, and Ottawa.  They have been looking strong in the games I’ve watched.

The biggest jump in ratings this week was 11th-ranked Winnipeg, picking up 21 rating points with a win against Ottawa and two against Montreal.  They start next week with two games against 29th-ranked Ottawa, but then face a tough test with games against Toronto and 9th-ranked Edmonton.

The biggest drop in the ratings came from Montreal, losing 22 rating points and dropping to 18th in the rankings.  However, we do still give them an 84% chance of making the playoffs!  They went 1-3-0 this week, beating Edmonton in overtime, but then losing to Toronto once and Winnipeg twice.

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

The top 5

1. Colorado Avalanche (1604, ▲9)

Record: 28-9-4, 1st in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 38% (▲7)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 17% (▲1)

Last week: 3-1-0

• April 5: Won 5-4 @ Minnesota Wild (8th, 1543)
• April 7: Lost 8-3 @ Minnesota Wild (8th, 1543)
• April 9: Won 2-0 @ Anaheim Ducks (30th, 1407)
• April 11: Won 4-1 @ Anaheim Ducks (30th, 1407)

Next week:

• April 12: vs. Arizona Coyotes (20th, 1486)
• April 14: @ St. Louis Blues (19th, 1487)
• April 16: vs. Los Angeles Kings (21th, 1470)
• April 18: vs. Los Angeles Kings (21th, 1470)

2. Tampa Bay Lightning ▲1 (1568, ▲4)

Record: 28-11-2, 2nd in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 14% (▼1)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▲1)

Last week: 2-1-0

• April 6: Lost 4-2 @ Columbus Blue Jackets (27th, 1451)
• April 8: Won 6-4 @ Columbus Blue Jackets (27th, 1451)
• April 10: Won 3-0 @ Nashville Predators (16th, 1490)

Next week:

• April 13: @ Nashville Predators (16th, 1490)
• April 15: vs. Florida Panthers (13th, 1521)
• April 17: vs. Florida Panthers (13th, 1521)

3. Washington Capitals ▼1 (1566, ▼3)

Record: 27-11-4, 1st in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 4% (▼6)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▼1)

Last week: 2-2-0

• April 6: Lost 1-0 @ New York Islanders (10th, 1540)
• April 8: Lost 4-2 vs. Boston Bruins (11th, 1539)
• April 9: Won 4-3 @ Buffalo Sabres (31th, 1406)
• April 11: Won 8-1 @ Boston Bruins (11th, 1539)

Next week:

• April 13: vs. Philadelphia Flyers (16th, 1490)
• April 15: vs. Buffalo Sabres (31th, 1406)
• April 17: @ Philadelphia Flyers (16th, 1490)
• April 18: @ Boston Bruins (11th, 1539)

4. Pittsburgh Penguins ▲4 (1556, ▲14)

Record: 27-13-2, 3rd in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 99% (▲4)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 1%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲2)

Last week: 3-1-0

• April 6: Lost 8-4 @ New York Rangers (14th, 1518)
• April 8: Won 5-2 @ New York Rangers (14th, 1518)
• April 9: Won 6-4 @ New Jersey Devils (26th, 1454)
• April 11: Won 5-2 @ New Jersey Devils (26th, 1454)

Next week:

• April 15: vs. Philadelphia Flyers (16th, 1490)
• April 17: @ Buffalo Sabres (31th, 1406)
• April 18: @ Buffalo Sabres (31th, 1406)

5. Toronto Maple Leafs ▲7 (1555, ▲17)

Record: 28-10-3, 1st in North Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 15% (▲9)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲2)

Last week: 3-0-0

• April 5: Won 5-3 @ Calgary Flames (24th, 1464)
• April 7: Won 3-2 vs. Montreal Canadiens (18th, 1488)
• April 10: Won 6-5 vs. Ottawa Senators (29th, 1411)

Next week:

• April 12: @ Montreal Canadiens (18th, 1488)
• April 13: vs. Calgary Flames (24th, 1464)
• April 15: vs. Winnipeg Jets (11th, 1539)
• April 17: @ Vancouver Canucks (25th, 1462)

Overall Ratings

 1       Colorado Avalanche            1604 (▲9)
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      1568 (▲4)
 3       Washington Capitals (▼1)      1566 (▼3)
 4       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲4)      1556 (▲14)
 5       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲7)      1555 (▲17)
 6       Vegas Golden Knights          1554 (▲10)
 7       Carolina Hurricanes           1553 (▲10)
 8       Minnesota Wild (▼4)           1543 (▼7)
 9       Edmonton Oilers (▲2)          1542 (▲3)
10       New York Islanders (▼5)       1540 (▼5)
11 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1)            1539 (▼1)
11 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲2)            1539 (▲21)
13       Florida Panthers (▼4)         1521 (▼20)
14       New York Rangers (▲1)         1518 (▲9)
15       Dallas Stars (▲3)             1503 (▲9)
16 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲3)      1490 (▼1)
16 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      1490 (▼5)
18       Montreal Canadiens (▼4)       1488 (▼22)
19       St. Louis Blues (▲2)          1487 (▲9)
20       Arizona Coyotes (▼4)          1486 (▼11)
21       Los Angeles Kings (▲2)        1470 (▲2)
22       San Jose Sharks (▼2)          1469 (▼12)
23       Chicago Blackhawks (▲3)       1466 (▲7)
24       Calgary Flames                1464 (▲2)
25       Vancouver Canucks (▼1)        1462
26       New Jersey Devils (▼4)        1454 (▼16)
27       Columbus Blue Jackets         1451 (▼5)
28       Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        1425 (▼4)
29       Ottawa Senators (▼1)          1411 (▼21)
30       Anaheim Ducks                 1407 (▲1)
31       Buffalo Sabres                1406 (▲9)

Chances of Winning Division

Central Division

 1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      46% (▲15)
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           46% (▲7)
 3       Florida Panthers              7% (▼23)
 4 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%
 4 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         <1%
 4 (tie) Dallas Stars                  <1%
 4 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
 4 (tie) Nashville Predators           <1%

East Division

 1       Washington Capitals           43% (▼10)
 2       New York Islanders            27% (▲3)
 3       Pittsburgh Penguins           26% (▲11)
 4       Boston Bruins                 4% (▼4)
 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
 5 (tie) New York Rangers              <1%
 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils             <1%
 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1%

West Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            73% (▲8)
 2       Vegas Golden Knights          24% (▲3)
 3       Minnesota Wild                3% (▼11)
 4 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 <1%
 4 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1%
 4 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             <1%
 4 (tie) San Jose Sharks               <1%
 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues               <1%

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           78% (▲11)
 2       Winnipeg Jets                 17% (▲4)
 3       Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          4% (▼9)
 4 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲1)           <1%
 4 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1% (▼8)
 4 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1)          <1%
 4 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        <1%

Making the Playoffs

Central Division

 1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           >99%
 1 (tie) Florida Panthers              >99%
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           >99%
 4       Nashville Predators           53% (▲5)
 5       Dallas Stars                  27% (▼1)
 6       Chicago Blackhawks            20%
 7       Columbus Blue Jackets         1% (▼2)
 8       Detroit Red Wings             <1%

East Division

 1 (tie) New York Islanders (▲1)       99% (▲3)
 1 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2)      99% (▲4)
 1 (tie) Washington Capitals           99%
 4       Boston Bruins                 84%
 5       New York Rangers              14% (▲1)
 6       Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      6% (▼7)
 7 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           <1%
 7 (tie) New Jersey Devils             <1% (▼1)

West Division

 1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            >99%
 1 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     >99% (▲1)
 3       Minnesota Wild (▼1)           99%
 4       St. Louis Blues (▲2)          43% (▲25)
 5       Arizona Coyotes (▼1)          30% (▼16)
 6       San Jose Sharks (▼1)          15% (▼10)
 7       Los Angeles Kings             12% (▼1)
 8       Anaheim Ducks                 <1%

North Division

 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           >99%
 1 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            >99% (▲2)
 3       Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          99% (▲1)
 4       Montreal Canadiens            84% (▼8)
 5       Vancouver Canucks             9% (▲2)
 6       Calgary Flames                8% (▲3)
 7       Ottawa Senators               <1%

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Colorado Avalanche            38% (▲7)
 2 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      15% (▲3)
 2 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲5)      15% (▲9)
 4       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼2)      14% (▼1)
 5       Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     9% (▲2)
 6       Washington Capitals (▼2)      4% (▼6)
 7       New York Islanders (▲2)       2% (▼1)
 8 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼4)         1% (▼9)
 8 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2)      1%
 8 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲4)            1% (▲1)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            17% (▲1)
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      10% (▲1)
 3       Washington Capitals (▼1)      9% (▼1)
 4 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           8% (▲2)
 4 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           8% (▲2)
 6 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲5)      7% (▲2)
 6 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼2)     7% (▲1)
 8 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼4)          5% (▼1)
 8 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼4)           5% (▼1)
 8 (tie) New York Islanders (▼4)       5% (▼1)
 8 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲5)            5% (▲1)
12 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1)            4% (▼1)
12 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼8)         4% (▼2)
14       Montreal Canadiens            2% (▼1)
15 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               1%
15 (tie) Dallas Stars                  1%
15 (tie) New York Rangers              1%
15 (tie) Nashville Predators           1%
15 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲6)          1% (▲1)
20 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            <1%
20 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           <1%
20 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲1)           <1%
20 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       <1%
20 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    <1%
20 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        <1%
20 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        <1%
20 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1)        <1%
20 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1)          <1%
20 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼5)      <1% (▼1)
20 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼5)          <1% (▼1)
20 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        <1%

 

We have a new team at the top of the rankings this week.  Colorado has taken over top spot from Washington, rising 19 rating points to 1595.  They have quite the lead over Washington now, as the Capitals dropped 9 points down to 1569.  Tampa Bay and Minnesota remain in the top 5, while Vegas has dropped to sixth, and have been replaced in the top 5 by the New York Islanders.

Colorado had a big week, going 4-0-0.  They beat 30th-ranked Anaheim, 16th-ranked Arizona (9-3!), and 21st-ranked St. Louis twice.

Washington had an average week, going 2-2-0.  They started the week with two losses in New York, first to the 15th-ranked Rangers, then to the 5th-ranked Islanders, giving up 8 goals.  They finished the week with two wins over New Jersey, the first one in overtime.

Tampa Bay had a very easy schedule, but only managed a 2-2-0 record.  They split a pair with 27th-ranked Columbus, then also split a pair with 29th-ranked Detroit.

Minnesota went 2-1-1.  They started the week losing twice to 20th-ranked San Jose, once in a shootout.  But then, they turned it around by beating 6th-ranked Vegas twice, with one of those wins also coming in a shootout.

Rounding out the top 5 are the New York Islanders, who went 2-1-0, with a loss to 8th-ranked Pittsburgh, a win against Washington, and a shootout win against 17th-ranked Philadelphia.

San Jose had the best week this week, picking up 27 rating points and moving up from 27th to 20th place in the rankings.  They went 4-0-0, beating 4th-ranked Minnesota twice, with one of those wins coming in a shootout, then beating 23rd-ranked Los Angeles twice.

The playoff teams seem to be firming up.  Looking at the chances of making the playoffs (or not), if a team has greater than a 99% chance, I consider them a sure thing, as they’ve got less than a 1 in 100 chance of not making the playoffs.  If a team has a greater than 90% chance, I consider it pretty likely, although there is still a 1 in 10 chance of them not making the playoffs.  And if a team has less than a 1% chance, I don’t see much chance that they can turn it around and make the playoffs, although there is still a slim chance.  Let’s look at each of the divisions.

In the Central Division, Carolina, Florida, and Tampa Bay are all considered shoe-ins.  There are still 3 other teams that have a reasonable chance of grabbing the last playoff spot, with Nashville most likely at 48%, Dallas at 28%, and Chicago at 9%.  And it looks like a three-way race for the top spot, with Tampa Bay favoured at 39%, but Carolina (31%) and Florida (30%) have almost as good a shot at it.

In the East Division, nobody is a sure thing, although Washington (99%), New York Islanders (96%), and Pittsburgh (95%) are pretty likely.  Boston is expected to get the fourth spot with an 84% chance, but the Rangers and Philadelphia (both at 13%) can’t be counted out yet.  Washington has a 53% chance of winning the division.

In the West Division, Colorado (>99%), Minnesota (99%), and Vegas (also 99%) look to take the top 3 spots.  But it’s close after that.  Arizona has a 46% chance of making the playoffs, followed by San Jose at 25%, St. Louis at 18%, and Los Angeles at 13%.  Only Anaheim is being counted out in that division.

In the North Division, it looks like the playoff teams have been mostly decided.  Toronto is a sure thing, whereas Edmonton (98%), Winnipeg (also 98%), and Montreal (92%) are pretty sure of making the playoffs.  Having an outside shot are still Vancouver at 7% and Calgary at 5%.  Vancouver’s got no chance.  And we’re giving Toronto a 67% chance of winning the division.

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

The top 5

1. Colorado Avalanche ▲2 (1595, ▲19)

Record: 25-8-4, 1st in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99% (▲1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 31% (▲22)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 16% (▲5)

Last week: 4-0-0

• March 29: Won 5-2 vs. Anaheim Ducks (30th, 1406)
• March 31: Won 9-3 vs. Arizona Coyotes (16th, 1497)
• April 2: Won 3-2 vs. St. Louis Blues (21th, 1478)
• April 3: Won 2-1 vs. St. Louis Blues (21th, 1478)

Next week:

• April 5: @ Minnesota Wild (4th, 1550)
• April 7: @ Minnesota Wild (4th, 1550)
• April 9: @ Anaheim Ducks (30th, 1406)
• April 11: @ Anaheim Ducks (30th, 1406)

2. Washington Capitals ▼1 (1569, ▼9)

Record: 25-9-4, 1st in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 10% (▼5)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▼2)

Last week: 2-2-0

• March 30: Lost 5-2 @ New York Rangers (15th, 1509)
• April 1: Lost 8-4 @ New York Islanders (5th, 1545)
• April 2: Won in OT 2-1 @ New Jersey Devils (22th, 1470)
• April 4: Won 5-4 @ New Jersey Devils (22th, 1470)

Next week:

• April 6: @ New York Islanders (5th, 1545)
• April 8: vs. Boston Bruins (10th, 1540)
• April 9: @ Buffalo Sabres (31th, 1397)
• April 11: @ Boston Bruins (10th, 1540)

3. Tampa Bay Lightning ▼1 (1564, ▼13)

Record: 26-10-2, 2nd in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 15% (▼13)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▼3)

Last week: 2-2-0

• March 30: Lost 3-1 vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (27th, 1456)
• April 1: Won 3-2 vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (27th, 1456)
• April 3: Won 2-1 vs. Detroit Red Wings (29th, 1429)
• April 4: Lost 5-1 vs. Detroit Red Wings (29th, 1429)

Next week:

• April 6: @ Columbus Blue Jackets (27th, 1456)
• April 8: @ Columbus Blue Jackets (27th, 1456)
• April 10: @ Nashville Predators (19th, 1491)

4. Minnesota Wild ▲1 (1550)

Record: 23-11-2, 3rd in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 99% (▲2)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 4%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6%

Last week: 2-1-1

• March 29: Lost in SO 4-3 @ San Jose Sharks (20th, 1481)
• March 31: Lost 4-2 @ San Jose Sharks (20th, 1481)
• April 1: Won in SO 3-2 @ Vegas Golden Knights (6th, 1544)
• April 3: Won 2-1 @ Vegas Golden Knights (6th, 1544)

Next week:

• April 5: vs. Colorado Avalanche (1st, 1595)
• April 7: vs. Colorado Avalanche (1st, 1595)
• April 9: @ St. Louis Blues (21th, 1478)
• April 10: @ St. Louis Blues (21th, 1478)

5. New York Islanders ▲1 (1545, ▼2)

Record: 24-10-4, 2nd in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 96% (▲1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 3%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6%

Last week: 2-1-0

• March 29: Lost 2-1 @ Pittsburgh Penguins (8th, 1542)
• April 1: Won 8-4 vs. Washington Capitals (2nd, 1569)
• April 3: Won in SO 3-2 vs. Philadelphia Flyers (17th, 1495)

Next week:

• April 6: vs. Washington Capitals (2nd, 1569)
• April 8: vs. Philadelphia Flyers (17th, 1495)
• April 9: vs. New York Rangers (15th, 1509)
• April 11: vs. New York Rangers (15th, 1509)

Overall Ratings

 1       Colorado Avalanche (▲2)       1595 (▲19)
 2       Washington Capitals (▼1)      1569 (▼9)
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      1564 (▼13)
 4       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           1550
 5       New York Islanders (▲1)       1545 (▼2)
 6       Vegas Golden Knights (▼2)     1544 (▼15)
 7       Carolina Hurricanes (▼1)      1543 (▼4)
 8       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2)      1542 (▲8)
 9       Florida Panthers (▲2)         1541 (▲12)
10       Boston Bruins (▼2)            1540 (▼3)
11       Edmonton Oilers (▼2)          1539 (▼2)
12       Toronto Maple Leafs           1538 (▲16)
13       Winnipeg Jets                 1518 (▼1)
14       Montreal Canadiens            1510 (▲3)
15       New York Rangers              1509 (▲4)
16       Arizona Coyotes (▲1)          1497 (▲1)
17       Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      1495 (▼9)
18       Dallas Stars (▲2)             1494 (▲13)
19       Nashville Predators (▼1)      1491 (▼4)
20       San Jose Sharks (▲7)          1481 (▲27)
21       St. Louis Blues (▼2)          1478 (▼10)
22       New Jersey Devils (▲1)        1470 (▼4)
23       Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        1468 (▼12)
24 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼4)           1462 (▼19)
24 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        1462
26       Chicago Blackhawks (▼2)       1459 (▼5)
27       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1)    1456 (▼4)
28       Ottawa Senators               1432 (▲4)
29       Detroit Red Wings             1429 (▲5)
30       Anaheim Ducks                 1406 (▼10)
31       Buffalo Sabres                1397 (▲15)

Chances of Winning Division

Central Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           39% (▼15)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           31% (▼4)
 3       Florida Panthers              30% (▲19)
 4 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%
 4 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         <1%
 4 (tie) Dallas Stars                  <1%
 4 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
 4 (tie) Nashville Predators           <1%

East Division

 1       Washington Capitals           53% (▼6)
 2       New York Islanders            24% (▲2)
 3       Pittsburgh Penguins           15% (▲5)
 4       Boston Bruins                 8% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
 5 (tie) New York Rangers              <1%
 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils             <1%
 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1%

West Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       65% (▲32)
 2       Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     21% (▼29)
 3       Minnesota Wild                14% (▼3)
 4 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 <1%
 4 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1%
 4 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             <1%
 4 (tie) San Jose Sharks               <1%
 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues               <1%

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           67% (▲22)
 2 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          13% (▼6)
 2 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 13% (▼12)
 4       Montreal Canadiens            8% (▼3)
 5 (tie) Calgary Flames                <1%
 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%
 5 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             <1%

Making the Playoffs

Central Division

 1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           >99%
 1 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲2)         >99% (▲1)
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           >99%
 4       Nashville Predators           48% (▲3)
 5       Dallas Stars (▲1)             28% (▲8)
 6       Chicago Blackhawks (▼1)       20% (▼9)
 7       Columbus Blue Jackets         3% (▼4)
 8       Detroit Red Wings             <1%

East Division

 1       Washington Capitals           99%
 2       New York Islanders            96% (▲1)
 3       Pittsburgh Penguins           95% (▲5)
 4       Boston Bruins                 84% (▲1)
 5 (tie) New York Rangers (▲1)         13% (▲3)
 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           13% (▼8)
 7       New Jersey Devils             1% (▼1)
 8       Buffalo Sabres                <1%

West Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       >99% (▲1)
 2 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲1)           99% (▲2)
 2 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     99% (▼1)
 4       Arizona Coyotes               46% (▲10)
 5       San Jose Sharks (▲2)          25% (▲19)
 6       St. Louis Blues (▼1)          18% (▼14)
 7       Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        13% (▼17)
 8       Anaheim Ducks                 <1%

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           >99% (▲2)
 2 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          98% (▲4)
 2 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 98% (▲1)
 4       Montreal Canadiens            92% (▲9)
 5       Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        7%
 6       Calgary Flames (▼1)           5% (▼15)
 7       Ottawa Senators               <1% (▼1)

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Colorado Avalanche (▲4)       31% (▲22)
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      15% (▼13)
 3       Carolina Hurricanes (▼1)      12% (▼5)
 4 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲3)         10% (▲7)
 4 (tie) Washington Capitals           10% (▼5)
 6       Vegas Golden Knights (▼4)     7% (▼10)
 7       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲2)      6% (▲4)
 8       Minnesota Wild (▼2)           4%
 9       New York Islanders (▼2)       3%
10 (tie) Boston Bruins                 1%
10 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins           1%

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche (▲2)       16% (▲5)
 2       Washington Capitals (▼1)      10% (▼2)
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼2)      9% (▼3)
 4 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      6% (▼1)
 4 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲2)          6%
 4 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲5)         6% (▲1)
 4 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲2)           6%
 4 (tie) New York Islanders (▲2)       6%
 4 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲5)      6% (▲1)
 4 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          6% (▼2)
11 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼2)            5%
11 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      5% (▲1)
13       Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            4%
14       Montreal Canadiens            3%
15 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               1%
15 (tie) Dallas Stars                  1%
15 (tie) New York Rangers              1%
15 (tie) Nashville Predators           1%
15 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           1%
15 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲8)          1% (▲1)
21 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲2)            <1%
21 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲2)           <1%
21 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼6)           <1% (▼1)
21 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲2)       <1%
21 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2)    <1%
21 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲2)        <1%
21 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼6)        <1% (▼1)
21 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲2)        <1%
21 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲2)          <1%
21 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼6)          <1% (▼1)
21 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲2)        <1%

 

For the first time this season, Tampa Bay or Boston are not at the top of our rankings.  That honour goes to Washington, who went 3-0-0 last week and have won 9 of their last 10 games.  Tampa Bay dropped to 2nd, after a four week run at the top, going 1-2-0 this week and a middling 6-4-0 in their last 10.  Rounding out the top 5 are Colorado, Vegas, and Minnesota, all West Division teams!  On the bottom end, Buffalo extended their winless streak to 17 games, and of course are at the bottom of our rankings, now 34 rating points behind second-worst Anaheim.

Washington has had quite the run lately.  Back on February 14, they were ranked 13th and were in 4th place in the East Division.  Since then, they have gone 17-3-1 and now have a 59% chance of winning their division, the best chance of any team in the league.  They are also tied with Tampa Bay for favourites to win the Stanley Cup, both at 12%.  This week, they beat 23rd-ranked New Jersey twice and the 15th ranked Rangers once.  They’ve got four games coming up next week, starting the week facing the Rangers again, followed by the 6th-ranked Islanders, and then two more against New Jersey.

Tampa Bay went 1-2-0 last week, beating 20th-ranked Dallas, but then losing to them 2 days later, and finishing off the week with a loss to 6th-ranked Carolina.  They have an easy week coming up, playing two games against 26th-ranked Columbus, and then two games in two nights against 29th-ranked Detroit.  They’ll need to make the most of those games to regain the ratings lead, and to remain in top spot in the Central Division, as Carolina only trails them by 1 point (with one game in hand!) and Florida two points behind.  We do give them a >99% chance of making the playoffs, though.

Colorado went 2-0-2 this week.  Even though they gained 11 rating points, they still dropped down from 2nd to 3rd in our rankings.  They beat Arizona 5-1, then the next night lost to them 5-4 in a shootout.  Then they split a pair with Vegas, winning 5-1 but losing two days later in overtime 3-2.  Vegas went 2-1-0, winning their only non-Colorado game against St. Louis, 5-1.  Minnesota took a big jump in the ratings, gaining 14 rating points and jumping 4 spots in the rankings, going 3-0-0 this week, with two wins over Anaheim and one win against St. Louis.

The biggest mover this week was Nashville, going 4-0-0 with two wins against Detroit and two wins against Chicago.  Not the best teams in the league (29th and 24th, respectively), but they are teams that Nashville needs to beat to make the playoffs.  They gained 27 ratings points, and saw their chances of making the playoffs improve from 15% to 45%.  They are now sitting in 4th in the Central Division, with the same number of points and games played as Chicago, but they currently hold the last playoff spot by virtue of having more regulation wins.

On the downside, St. Louis dropped 24 rating points and Columbus lost 22.  St. Louis went 0-3-1, with their only point coming in a 3-2 overtime loss to 30th-ranked Anaheim.  Columbus also went 0-3-1, but they did pick up a point in a 4-3 overtime loss to 6th-ranked Carolina.

In other news, Montreal did not play at all this week, having their games postponed because of two players entering COVID protocols.  We’ll see how they do after their layoff this week, playing at home against Edmonton, then having a home-and-home series with Ottawa.  It’ll be interesting to see if their acquisition of Eric Staal helps, although we won’t know for a week as he’s in a 7-day COVID quarantine after entering Canada on Saturday.

One last bit of news: because of schedule changes due to the Montreal game postponements, the last day of the season is now May 11th.  The original schedule called for the season to finish on May 8th.

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

The top 5

1. Washington Capitals ▲2 (1578, ▲15)

Record: 23-7-4, 1st in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 99% (▲4)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 15% (▲8)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 12% (▲3)

Last week: 3-0-0

• March 25: Won 4-3 vs. New Jersey Devils (23rd, 1474)
• March 26: Won 4-0 vs. New Jersey Devils (23rd, 1474)
• March 28: Won 5-4 vs. New York Rangers (15th, 1505)

Next week:

• March 30: @ New York Rangers (15th, 1505)
• April 1: @ New York Islanders (6th, 1547)
• April 2: @ New Jersey Devils (23rd, 1474)
• April 4: @ New Jersey Devils (23rd, 1474)

2. Tampa Bay Lightning ▼1 (1577, ▼11)

Record: 24-8-2, 1st in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 28% (▼20)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 12% (▼2)

Last week: 1-2-0

• March 23: Won 2-1 @ Dallas Stars (20th, 1481)
• March 25: Lost 4-3 @ Dallas Stars (20th, 1481)
• March 27: Lost 4-3 @ Carolina Hurricanes (6th, 1547)

Next week:

• March 30: vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (26th, 1460)
• April 1: vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (26th, 1460)
• April 3: vs. Detroit Red Wings (29th, 1424)
• April 4: vs. Detroit Red Wings (29th, 1424)

3. Colorado Avalanche ▼1 (1576, ▲11)

Record: 21-8-4, 2nd in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 99% (▲3)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 9% (▲2)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 11% (▲2)

Last week: 2-0-2

• March 22: Won 5-1 @ Arizona Coyotes (17th, 1496)
• March 23: Lost in SO 5-4 @ Arizona Coyotes (17th, 1496)
• March 25: Won 5-1 vs. Vegas Golden Knights (4th, 1559)
• March 27: Lost in OT 3-2 vs. Vegas Golden Knights (4th, 1559)

Next week:

• March 29: vs. Anaheim Ducks (30th, 1416)
• March 31: vs. Arizona Coyotes (17th, 1496)
• April 2: vs. St. Louis Blues (19th, 1488)
• April 3: vs. St. Louis Blues (19th, 1488)

4. Vegas Golden Knights (1559, ▲1)

Record: 23-8-1, 1st in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99% (▲2)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 17% (▲2)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8%

Last week: 2-1-0

• March 22: Won 5-1 vs. St. Louis Blues (19th, 1488)
• March 25: Lost 5-1 @ Colorado Avalanche (3rd, 1576)
• March 27: Won in OT 3-2 @ Colorado Avalanche (3rd, 1576)

Next week:

• March 29: vs. Los Angeles Kings (22nd, 1480)
• March 31: vs. Los Angeles Kings (22nd, 1480)
• April 1: vs. Minnesota Wild (5th, 1550)
• April 3: vs. Minnesota Wild (5th, 1550)

5. Minnesota Wild ▲4 (1550, ▲14)

Record: 21-10-1, 3rd in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 97% (▲10)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 4% (▲2)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▲1)

Last week: 3-0-0

• March 22: Won 2-1 vs. Anaheim Ducks (30th, 1416)
• March 24: Won 3-2 vs. Anaheim Ducks (30th, 1416)
• March 25: Won 2-0 vs. St. Louis Blues (19th, 1488)

Next week:

• March 29: @ San Jose Sharks (27th, 1454)
• March 31: @ San Jose Sharks (27th, 1454)
• April 1: @ Vegas Golden Knights (4th, 1559)
• April 3: @ Vegas Golden Knights (4th, 1559)

Overall Ratings

 1       Washington Capitals (▲2)      1578 (▲15)
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      1577 (▼11)
 3       Colorado Avalanche (▼1)       1576 (▲11)
 4       Vegas Golden Knights          1559 (▲1)
 5       Minnesota Wild (▲4)           1550 (▲14)
 6 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲4)      1547 (▲14)
 6 (tie) New York Islanders (▼1)       1547 (▼6)
 8       Boston Bruins (▼2)            1543 (▼7)
 9       Edmonton Oilers (▼2)          1541
10       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2)      1534 (▲15)
11       Florida Panthers (▼3)         1529 (▼8)
12       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      1522 (▼1)
13       Winnipeg Jets (▲4)            1519 (▲16)
14       Montreal Canadiens (▲1)       1507
15       New York Rangers (▲1)         1505 (▲1)
16       Philadelphia Flyers (▼3)      1504 (▼10)
17       Arizona Coyotes (▲3)          1496 (▲6)
18       Nashville Predators (▲6)      1495 (▲27)
19       St. Louis Blues (▼5)          1488 (▼24)
20 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼2)           1481 (▼16)
20 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲1)             1481 (▼5)
22       Los Angeles Kings (▼3)        1480 (▼14)
23       New Jersey Devils (▲2)        1474 (▲9)
24       Chicago Blackhawks (▲2)       1464
25       Vancouver Canucks (▼2)        1462 (▼15)
26       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼4)    1460 (▼22)
27       San Jose Sharks               1454 (▲3)
28       Ottawa Senators (▲2)          1428 (▲18)
29       Detroit Red Wings (▼1)        1424 (▲5)
30       Anaheim Ducks (▼1)            1416 (▲4)
31       Buffalo Sabres                1382 (▼17)

Chances of Winning Division

Central Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           54% (▼17)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           35% (▲20)
 3       Florida Panthers              11% (▼3)
 4 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%
 4 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         <1%
 4 (tie) Dallas Stars                  <1%
 4 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
 4 (tie) Nashville Predators           <1%

East Division

 1       Washington Capitals           59% (▲17)
 2       New York Islanders            22% (▼6)
 3       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      10% (▲3)
 4       Boston Bruins (▼1)            9% (▼10)
 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           <1%
 5 (tie) New York Rangers (▲1)         <1%
 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1)        <1%
 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1% (▼2)

West Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          50% (▼4)
 2       Colorado Avalanche            33% (▲3)
 3       Minnesota Wild                17% (▲5)
 4 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲2)            <1%
 4 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲2)          <1%
 4 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        <1% (▼1)
 4 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲2)          <1%
 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues               <1% (▼3)

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           45% (▲5)
 2       Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            25% (▲7)
 3       Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          19% (▼7)
 4       Montreal Canadiens            11% (▼3)
 5 (tie) Calgary Flames                <1% (▼2)
 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1)          <1%
 5 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        <1%

Making the Playoffs

Central Division

 1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      >99% (▲2)
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           >99%
 3       Florida Panthers (▼1)         99% (▲1)
 4       Nashville Predators (▲3)      45% (▲30)
 5       Chicago Blackhawks (▼1)       29% (▼4)
 6       Dallas Stars (▼1)             20% (▼8)
 7       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1)    7% (▼20)
 8       Detroit Red Wings             <1% (▼1)

East Division

 1       Washington Capitals           99% (▲4)
 2       New York Islanders            95% (▲4)
 3       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      90% (▲17)
 4       Boston Bruins (▼1)            83% (▼1)
 5       Philadelphia Flyers           21% (▼19)
 6       New York Rangers              10% (▼4)
 7       New Jersey Devils             2% (▼1)
 8       Buffalo Sabres                <1%

West Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          >99% (▲2)
 2       Colorado Avalanche            99% (▲3)
 3       Minnesota Wild                97% (▲10)
 4       Arizona Coyotes (▲2)          36% (▲19)
 5       St. Louis Blues (▼1)          32% (▼28)
 6       Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        30% (▼7)
 7       San Jose Sharks               6% (▲1)
 8       Anaheim Ducks                 <1%

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           98% (▲5)
 2       Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            97% (▲14)
 3       Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          94% (▲4)
 4       Montreal Canadiens            83% (▲7)
 5       Calgary Flames                20% (▼19)
 6       Vancouver Canucks             7% (▼11)
 7       Ottawa Senators               1% (▲1)

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           28% (▼20)
 2 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      17% (▲10)
 2 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          17% (▲2)
 4       Washington Capitals (▼1)      15% (▲8)
 5       Colorado Avalanche (▼2)       9% (▲2)
 6       Minnesota Wild (▲2)           4% (▲2)
 7 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼1)         3% (▼3)
 7 (tie) New York Islanders            3%
 9       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1)      2% (▲1)
10 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼2)            1% (▼1)
10 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      1% (▲1)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           12% (▼2)
 1 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲1)      12% (▲3)
 3       Colorado Avalanche (▼1)       11% (▲2)
 4       Vegas Golden Knights          8%
 5       Carolina Hurricanes (▲4)      7% (▲2)
 6 (tie) Edmonton Oilers               6%
 6 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲3)           6% (▲1)
 6 (tie) New York Islanders (▼1)       6% (▼1)
 9 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼3)            5% (▼1)
 9 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼3)         5% (▼1)
 9 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           5%
12 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins           4% (▲1)
12 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 4% (▲1)
14       Montreal Canadiens (▼2)       3%
15 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲2)          1%
15 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲2)           1%
15 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲2)             1%
15 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲2)        1%
15 (tie) New York Rangers (▲2)         1%
15 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲10)     1% (▲1)
15 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      1% (▼1)
15 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼3)          1% (▼2)
23 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲2)            <1%
23 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲2)           <1%
23 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▼6)       <1% (▼1)
23 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼6)    <1% (▼1)
23 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲2)        <1%
23 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲2)        <1%
23 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲2)          <1%
23 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲2)          <1%
23 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼6)        <1% (▼1)

The more things change, the more they stay the same.  We’ve just passed the halfway mark of the season, and there was lots of movement in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings this week, but the top 5 remain the same.  Tampa Bay remains at the top of the rankings, little changed from last week, but Buffalo has taken over the bottom spot, becoming the first team to drop below the 1400 rating mark.  In fact, in our simulations, the Sabres are the only team not to win the Stanley Cup once in 100,000 simulations!

Looking at the top 5, Tampa Bay had a busy week, playing 5 times!  They went 4-1-0, with one of their wins coming in a shootout against Dallas.  Despite the good week, they only gained 4 rating points, as the only top 10 team they played was Florida.  They remain the team with the best chance of making the playoffs (>99%), are the favourites to win the President’s Trophy (48% vs. second favourite Vegas at 15%), and the favourites to win the Stanley Cup.  But, at 14%, that’s definitely not a shoe-in; it’s less than the chances of rolling a die and getting a 6!

Colorado had a good week, moving up 17 rating points to 2nd in the rankings.  They had a perfect 3-0-0 record, with convincing wins over Anaheim (8-4) and Minnesota (5-1 and 6-0).  Although they are in 2nd place in the West Division, three points behind Vegas, we do think they are the stronger team right now.

Washington remained in the 3rd spot, picking up 7 rating points.  They went 3-1 this week, beating the Sabres, Islanders, and Rangers, but finishing the week with a loss to the Rangers.  They have moved into a tie with Colorado as 2nd-favourite team to win the Stanley Cup, at 9%.

Vegas stayed 4th in the rankings.  They gained 9 rating points, going 3-1, with two wins against San Jose and a split with Los Angeles.

The Islanders had the worst week of the top 5, going 1-2-0 and losing 10 rating points and dropped down from 2nd to 5th in the rankings.  They lost to Washington and Philadelphia, but then finished the week with a strong 6-1 win over the Flyers.

The biggest movers this week were Colorado and Nashville, both gaining 17 rating points.  Nashville had a tough schedule, but started the week beating top-ranked Tampa Bay, splitting a pair with 8th-ranked Florida, and finishing with a shootout win over 21st-ranked Dallas.

The biggest downward movers last week included Winnipeg (down 22 points), San Jose (down 17 points), and Buffalo (down 16 points).  Despite still having a chance at the playoffs, our simulations just can’t find any path for Buffalo to win the Stanley Cup.

One interesting game last week was on March 17th between the Flyers and Rangers.  Two days before, Philadelphia won 5-4 in overtime, but the Rangers came storming back to take the next game 9-0!  Those teams play twice next week, so we’ll see how those games turn out.

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

The top 5

1. Tampa Bay Lightning (1588, ▲4)

Record: 23-6-2, 1st in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 48% (▲13)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 14% (▲1)

Last week: 4-1-0

• March 15: Lost 4-1 vs. Nashville Predators (24th, 1468)
• March 16: Won in SO 4-3 @ Dallas Stars (21st, 1486)
• March 18: Won 4-2 vs. Chicago Blackhawks (26th, 1464)
• March 20: Won 4-1 vs. Chicago Blackhawks (26th, 1464)
• March 21: Won 5-3 vs. Florida Panthers (8th, 1537)

Next week:

• March 23: @ Dallas Stars (21st, 1486)
• March 25: @ Dallas Stars (21st, 1486)
• March 27: @ Carolina Hurricanes (10th, 1533)

2. Colorado Avalanche ▲3 (1565, ▲17)

Record: 19-8-2, 2nd in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 96% (▲8)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 7% (▲5)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲3)

Last week: 3-0-0

• March 16: Won 8-4 vs. Anaheim Ducks (29th, 1412)
• March 18: Won 5-1 vs. Minnesota Wild (9th, 1536)
• March 20: Won 6-0 vs. Minnesota Wild (9th, 1536)

Next week:

• March 22: @ Arizona Coyotes (20th, 1490)
• March 23: @ Arizona Coyotes (20th, 1490)
• March 25: vs. Vegas Golden Knights (4th, 1558)
• March 27: vs. Vegas Golden Knights (4th, 1558)

3. Washington Capitals (1563, ▲7)

Record: 20-7-4, 1st in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 95% (▲4)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 7% (▲2)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲2)

Last week: 3-1-0

• March 15: Won 6-0 @ Buffalo Sabres (31st, 1399)
• March 16: Won 3-1 vs. New York Islanders (5th, 1553)
• March 19: Won 2-1 vs. New York Rangers (16th, 1504)
• March 20: Lost 3-1 vs. New York Rangers (16th, 1504)

Next week:

• March 25: vs. New Jersey Devils (25th, 1465)
• March 26: vs. New Jersey Devils (25th, 1465)
• March 28: vs. New York Rangers (16th, 1504)

4. Vegas Golden Knights (1558, ▲9)

Record: 21-7-1, 1st in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 98% (▲2)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 15% (▲4)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲1)

Last week: 3-1-0

• March 15: Won 2-1 vs. San Jose Sharks (27th, 1451)
• March 17: Won 5-4 vs. San Jose Sharks (27th, 1451)
• March 19: Won 4-2 @ Los Angeles Kings (19th, 1494)
• March 21: Lost 3-1 @ Los Angeles Kings (19th, 1494)

Next week:

• March 22: vs. St. Louis Blues (14th, 1512)
• March 25: @ Colorado Avalanche (2nd, 1565)
• March 27: @ Colorado Avalanche (2nd, 1565)

5. New York Islanders ▼3 (1553, ▼10)

Record: 20-8-4, 2nd in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 91% (▼3)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 3% (▼5)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▼2)

Last week: 1-2-0

• March 16: Lost 3-1 @ Washington Capitals (3rd, 1563)
• March 18: Lost 4-3 vs. Philadelphia Flyers (13th, 1514)
• March 20: Won 6-1 vs. Philadelphia Flyers (13th, 1514)

Next week:

• March 22: @ Philadelphia Flyers (13th, 1514)
• March 23: @ Boston Bruins (6th, 1550)
• March 25: @ Boston Bruins (6th, 1550)
• March 27: @ Pittsburgh Penguins (12th, 1519)

Overall Ratings

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           1588 (▲4)
 2       Colorado Avalanche (▲3)       1565 (▲17)
 3       Washington Capitals           1563 (▲7)
 4       Vegas Golden Knights          1558 (▲9)
 5       New York Islanders (▼3)       1553 (▼10)
 6       Boston Bruins (▲1)            1550 (▲6)
 7       Edmonton Oilers (▲3)          1541 (▲13)
 8       Florida Panthers              1537 (▼6)
 9       Minnesota Wild (▼1)           1536 (▼7)
10       Carolina Hurricanes (▼4)      1533 (▼14)
11       Toronto Maple Leafs           1523 (▼3)
12       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      1519 (▼4)
13       Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      1514 (▼4)
14       St. Louis Blues (▲1)          1512
15       Montreal Canadiens (▲1)       1507 (▲7)
16       New York Rangers (▲2)         1504 (▲12)
17       Winnipeg Jets (▼5)            1503 (▼22)
18       Calgary Flames (▼1)           1497 (▲2)
19       Los Angeles Kings (▲2)        1494 (▲8)
20       Arizona Coyotes (▼1)          1490
21       Dallas Stars (▼1)             1486 (▼1)
22       Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    1482 (▲4)
23       Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        1477 (▲2)
24       Nashville Predators (▲3)      1468 (▲17)
25       New Jersey Devils (▲1)        1465 (▲9)
26       Chicago Blackhawks (▼4)       1464 (▼15)
27       San Jose Sharks (▼2)          1451 (▼17)
28       Detroit Red Wings (▲3)        1419 (▲11)
29       Anaheim Ducks (▼1)            1412 (▼10)
30       Ottawa Senators               1410 (▲1)
31       Buffalo Sabres (▼2)           1399 (▼16)

Chances of Winning Division

Central Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           71% (▲19)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           15% (▼13)
 3       Florida Panthers              14% (▼5)
 4 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%
 4 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         <1%
 4 (tie) Dallas Stars                  <1%
 4 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
 4 (tie) Nashville Predators           <1%

East Division

 1       Washington Capitals (▲1)      42% (▲12)
 2       New York Islanders (▼1)       28% (▼13)
 3       Boston Bruins                 19% (▲5)
 4       Pittsburgh Penguins           7% (▼4)
 5       Philadelphia Flyers           2% (▼1)
 6 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
 6 (tie) New York Rangers              <1%
 6 (tie) New Jersey Devils             <1%

West Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          54% (▲6)
 2       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       30% (▲10)
 3       Minnesota Wild (▼1)           12% (▼13)
 4       St. Louis Blues               3% (▼1)
 5       Los Angeles Kings             1%
 6 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            <1%
 6 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲1)          <1%
 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼1)          <1% (▼1)

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           40% (▲2)
 2       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          26% (▲12)
 3       Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            18% (▼19)
 4       Montreal Canadiens            14% (▲6)
 5       Calgary Flames                2% (▼1)
 6 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%
 6 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             <1%

Making the Playoffs

Central Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           >99%
 2 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           98% (▼1)
 2 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲1)         98%
 4       Chicago Blackhawks            33% (▼21)
 5       Dallas Stars                  28% (▼2)
 6       Columbus Blue Jackets         27% (▲13)
 7       Nashville Predators           15% (▲9)
 8       Detroit Red Wings             1%

East Division

 1       Washington Capitals (▲1)      95% (▲4)
 2       New York Islanders (▼1)       91% (▼3)
 3       Boston Bruins                 84% (▲5)
 4       Pittsburgh Penguins           73% (▼5)
 5       Philadelphia Flyers           40% (▼4)
 6       New York Rangers              14% (▲2)
 7       New Jersey Devils             3% (▲1)
 8       Buffalo Sabres                <1%

West Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          98% (▲2)
 2       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       96% (▲8)
 3       Minnesota Wild (▼1)           87% (▼3)
 4       St. Louis Blues               60% (▲4)
 5       Los Angeles Kings             37% (▲7)
 6       Arizona Coyotes               17% (▼3)
 7       San Jose Sharks               5% (▼14)
 8       Anaheim Ducks                 <1% (▼1)

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           93% (▼2)
 2       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          90% (▲6)
 3       Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            83% (▼11)
 4       Montreal Canadiens            76% (▲7)
 5       Calgary Flames                39% (▼7)
 6       Vancouver Canucks             18% (▲6)
 7       Ottawa Senators               <1%

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           48% (▲13)
 2       Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     15% (▲4)
 3 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▼1)      7% (▼10)
 3 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲5)       7% (▲5)
 3 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲3)      7% (▲2)
 6       Florida Panthers (▼2)         6% (▼4)
 7       New York Islanders (▼2)       3% (▼5)
 8 (tie) Boston Bruins                 2%
 8 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼1)           2% (▼1)
10       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼2)      1% (▼1)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           14% (▲1)
 2 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲4)       9% (▲3)
 2 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲1)      9% (▲2)
 4       Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     8% (▲1)
 5       New York Islanders (▼3)       7% (▼2)
 6 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲3)            6% (▲1)
 6 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲3)          6% (▲1)
 6 (tie) Florida Panthers              6%
 9 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▼6)      5% (▼2)
 9 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼3)           5% (▼1)
 9 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           5%
12 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲3)       3% (▲1)
12 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      3%
12 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲1)          3%
12 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼3)            3% (▼2)
16       Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      2%
17 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲1)          1%
17 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼2)           1% (▼1)
17 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       1%
17 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲7)    1% (▲1)
17 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲1)             1%
17 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        1%
17 (tie) New York Rangers (▲1)         1%
17 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲7)        1% (▲1)
25 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼1)            <1%
25 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▼1)           <1%
25 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼1)        <1%
25 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼1)      <1%
25 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼1)        <1%
25 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▼1)          <1%
25 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼7)          <1% (▼1)

 

It was another interesting week in the NHL, although there haven’t been many changes to the McDonald NHL Power Rankings.  Tampa Bay remains the top team, even though they are 2nd in the Central Division.  Carolina, 1st in that division, are 6th in our rankings.  Boston has dropped out of the top 5, moving down to 7th, while Washington has moved back in, showing up in the 3rd spot.

It looked to be an easy week for Tampa Bay, with two games against bottom-ranked Detroit and one against Nashville, but it didn’t go so well for them.  They did beat Nashville, but they lost once to Detroit and won the other game in overtime.  They saw their rating drop 9 points, but they are still the top-ranked team, the favourite to win their division (52% vs. Carolina’s 28%), the President’s Trophy (35% vs. Carolina’s 17%), and the most-likely team to make the playoffs (>99% chance!).

The Islanders moved into 2nd spot in our rankings, going 4-0-0 this week.  They beat New Jersey twice in regulation time and once in a shootout, and also beat Boston in a shootout.  Washington moved into 3rd, going 3-0-0, with two regulation wins over Philadelphia and an overtime win against New Jersey.  Vegas dropped down two spots to 4th, losing twice to Minnesota but beating St. Louis twice, once in overtime.  Rounding out the top 5 is Colorado, who beat Los Angeles twice but split a pair with Arizona, with their win coming in overtime.

The biggest mover this week was Minnesota, who gained 27 rating points and moved up 5 spots in our rankings to 8th with a perfect 4-0-0 record this week, with two wins against Vegas and two against Arizona.  On the downside, Toronto dropped 28 points, losing to 30th-ranked Ottawa and twice to Winnipeg, although they did manage an OT win in Winnipeg.  In fact, Toronto is no longer the top-rated Canadian team, with Edmonton moving into that spot after a 3-1-0 week, beating Ottawa 3 times but losing to Vancouver.  Winnipeg is close behind, just one rating point back of Toronto, after going 2-0-1 in their three games against the Leafs.  Toronto is still the favourite to win the Northern Division, just barely ahead of the Jets with a 38% chance vs. 37% chance for Winnipeg.

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

The top 5

1. Tampa Bay Lightning (1584, ▼9)

Record: 19-5-2, 2nd in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99% (▲1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 35% (▼6)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 13% (▼1)

Last week: 2-1-0

• March 9: Won in OT 4-3 @ Detroit Red Wings (31th, 1408)
• March 11: Lost 6-4 @ Detroit Red Wings (31th, 1408)
• March 13: Won 6-3 vs. Nashville Predators (27th, 1451)

Next week:

• March 15: vs. Nashville Predators (27th, 1451)
• March 16: @ Dallas Stars (20th, 1487)
• March 18: vs. Chicago Blackhawks (22th, 1479)
• March 20: vs. Chicago Blackhawks (22th, 1479)
• March 21: vs. Florida Panthers (8th, 1543)

2. New York Islanders ▲1 (1563, ▲9)

Record: 19-6-4, 1st in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 94% (▲8)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 8% (▲4)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲2)

Last week: 4-0-0

• March 9: Won in SO 2-1 vs. Boston Bruins (7th, 1544)
• March 11: Won 5-3 vs. New Jersey Devils (26th, 1456)
• March 13: Won 3-2 @ New Jersey Devils (26th, 1456)
• March 14: Won in SO 3-2 @ New Jersey Devils (26th, 1456)

Next week:

• March 16: @ Washington Capitals (3rd, 1556)
• March 18: vs. Philadelphia Flyers (14th, 1518)
• March 20: vs. Philadelphia Flyers (14th, 1518)

3. Washington Capitals ▲4 (1556, ▲13)

Record: 17-6-4, 2nd in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 91% (▲11)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 5% (▲3)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲1)

Last week: 3-0-0

• March 9: Won in OT 5-4 vs. New Jersey Devils (26th, 1456)
• March 11: Won 5-3 @ Philadelphia Flyers (14th, 1518)
• March 13: Won 5-4 @ Philadelphia Flyers (14th, 1518)

Next week:

• March 15: @ Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1415)
• March 16: vs. New York Islanders (2nd, 1563)
• March 19: vs. New York Rangers (18th, 1492)
• March 20: vs. New York Rangers (18th, 1492)

4. Vegas Golden Knights ▼2 (1549, ▼6)

Record: 18-6-1, 1st in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 96%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 11% (▼4)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▼1)

Last week: 2-2-0

• March 8: Lost 2-0 @ Minnesota Wild (8th, 1543)
• March 10: Lost 4-3 @ Minnesota Wild (8th, 1543)
• March 12: Won in OT 5-4 @ St. Louis Blues (15th, 1512)
• March 13: Won 5-1 @ St. Louis Blues (15th, 1512)

Next week:

• March 15: vs. San Jose Sharks (25th, 1468)
• March 17: vs. San Jose Sharks (25th, 1468)
• March 19: @ Los Angeles Kings (21th, 1486)
• March 21: @ Los Angeles Kings (21th, 1486)

5. Colorado Avalanche (1548)

Record: 16-8-2, 3rd in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 88% (▲5)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 2%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6%

Last week: 3-1-0

• March 8: Lost 3-2 vs. Arizona Coyotes (19th, 1490)
• March 10: Won in OT 2-1 vs. Arizona Coyotes (19th, 1490)
• March 12: Won 2-0 vs. Los Angeles Kings (21th, 1486)
• March 14: Won 4-1 vs. Los Angeles Kings (21th, 1486)

Next week:

• March 16: vs. Anaheim Ducks (28th, 1422)
• March 18: vs. Minnesota Wild (8th, 1543)
• March 20: vs. Minnesota Wild (8th, 1543)

Overall Ratings

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           1584 (▼9)
 2       New York Islanders (▲1)       1563 (▲9)
 3       Washington Capitals (▲4)      1556 (▲13)
 4       Vegas Golden Knights (▼2)     1549 (▼6)
 5       Colorado Avalanche            1548
 6       Carolina Hurricanes (▲2)      1547 (▲8)
 7       Boston Bruins (▼2)            1544 (▼4)
 8 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲2)         1543 (▲14)
 8 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲5)           1543 (▲27)
10       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          1528 (▲5)
11       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼8)      1526 (▼28)
12       Winnipeg Jets (▲2)            1525 (▲19)
13       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲3)      1523 (▲19)
14       Philadelphia Flyers (▼5)      1518 (▼19)
15       St. Louis Blues (▼3)          1512 (▼9)
16       Montreal Canadiens (▼2)       1500 (▼6)
17       Calgary Flames (▲6)           1495 (▲14)
18       New York Rangers (▼1)         1492 (▼1)
19       Arizona Coyotes               1490
20       Dallas Stars                  1487 (▼1)
21       Los Angeles Kings (▼3)        1486 (▼5)
22       Chicago Blackhawks            1479 (▼3)
23       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼2)    1478 (▼9)
24       Vancouver Canucks             1475
25       San Jose Sharks (▲2)          1468 (▲17)
26       New Jersey Devils (▼1)        1456 (▼7)
27       Nashville Predators (▼1)      1451 (▼6)
28       Anaheim Ducks                 1422 (▼23)
29       Buffalo Sabres                1415 (▼10)
30       Ottawa Senators               1409 (▼4)
31       Detroit Red Wings             1408 (▲8)

Chances of Winning Division

Central Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           52% (▼15)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           28% (▲8)
 3       Florida Panthers              19% (▲7)
 4 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1% (▼1)
 4 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    <1%
 4 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲1)             <1%
 4 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        <1%
 4 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲1)      <1%

East Division

 1       New York Islanders            41% (▲10)
 2       Washington Capitals (▲1)      30% (▲8)
 3       Boston Bruins (▼1)            14% (▼12)
 4       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      11% (▲4)
 5       Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      3% (▼10)
 6 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           <1%
 6 (tie) New York Rangers              <1% (▼1)
 6 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1)        <1%

West Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          48% (▼10)
 2       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           25% (▲15)
 3       Colorado Avalanche (▼1)       20% (▲1)
 4       St. Louis Blues (▼1)          4% (▼6)
 5 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             1% (▼1)
 5 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲2)          1% (▲1)
 7 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 <1%
 7 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▼1)          <1% (▼1)

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           38% (▼29)
 2       Winnipeg Jets                 37% (▲22)
 3       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          14% (▲6)
 4       Montreal Canadiens (▼1)       8% (▼2)
 5       Calgary Flames                3% (▲2)
 6 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%
 6 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             <1%

Making the Playoffs

Central Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           >99% (▲1)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           99% (▲3)
 3       Florida Panthers              98% (▲7)
 4       Chicago Blackhawks            54% (▼2)
 5       Dallas Stars                  30% (▲2)
 6       Columbus Blue Jackets         14% (▼5)
 7       Nashville Predators           6% (▼4)
 8       Detroit Red Wings             1% (▲1)

East Division

 1       New York Islanders            94% (▲8)
 2       Washington Capitals (▲1)      91% (▲11)
 3       Boston Bruins (▼1)            79% (▼4)
 4       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      78% (▲21)
 5       Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      44% (▼23)
 6       New York Rangers              12% (▼7)
 7       New Jersey Devils             2% (▼5)
 8       Buffalo Sabres                <1% (▼1)

West Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          96%
 2       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           90% (▲20)
 3       Colorado Avalanche (▼1)       88% (▲5)
 4       St. Louis Blues (▼1)          56% (▼14)
 5       Los Angeles Kings             30% (▼10)
 6       Arizona Coyotes               20% (▼8)
 7       San Jose Sharks               19% (▲10)
 8       Anaheim Ducks                 1% (▼3)

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           95% (▼4)
 2       Winnipeg Jets                 94% (▲7)
 3       Edmonton Oilers               84% (▲1)
 4       Montreal Canadiens            69% (▼11)
 5       Calgary Flames                46% (▲11)
 6       Vancouver Canucks             12% (▼4)
 7       Ottawa Senators               <1% (▼2)

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           35% (▼6)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes (▲2)      17% (▲7)
 3       Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     11% (▼4)
 4       Florida Panthers (▲1)         10% (▲5)
 5       New York Islanders (▲1)       8% (▲4)
 6       Washington Capitals (▲2)      5% (▲3)
 7       Minnesota Wild (▲3)           3% (▲2)
 8 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1)            2% (▼1)
 8 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            2%
 8 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼5)      2% (▼11)
 8 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲2)            2% (▲1)
12       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲3)      1% (▲1)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           13% (▼1)
 2       New York Islanders (▲2)       9% (▲2)
 3 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲2)      7% (▲1)
 3 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     7% (▼1)
 3 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲2)      7% (▲1)
 6 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼1)       6%
 6 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲3)         6% (▲1)
 6 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲7)           6% (▲3)
 9 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼4)            5% (▼1)
 9 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲2)          5% (▲1)
 9 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼7)      5% (▼3)
 9 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲4)            5% (▲2)
13 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲3)      3% (▲1)
13 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼2)          3% (▼1)
15 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲2)           2% (▲1)
15 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▼2)       2% (▼1)
15 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼6)      2% (▼3)
18 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▼1)          1%
18 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▼1)       1%
18 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼1)             1%
18 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        1%
18 (tie) New York Rangers (▼1)         1%
18 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲7)          1% (▲1)
24 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            <1%
24 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           <1%
24 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼7)    <1% (▼1)
24 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        <1%
24 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲1)      <1%
24 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1)        <1%
24 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1)          <1%
24 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼7)        <1% (▼1)

 

Although we are not yet at the mid-point of the NHL schedule, some of the playoff teams are already being sorted out, according to our ratings.  There are still lots of changes in the ratings and rankings, but trends are starting to become evident.

Tampa Bay continues to be the top-ranked team, and we predict that they have a 99% chance of making the playoffs, a 41% chance of winning the President’s Trophy, and a 14% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.  Although they went 3-0-1 this week, three of those games, including their shootout loss, were against the 22nd-ranked Blackhawks.  They have a pretty easy week coming up, too, with two games against the last-ranked Red Wings and one against the 26th-ranked Predators.

Vegas moved into the top 5, going 4-0-0 this week.  They are favourites to win their division, as we’re giving them a 58% chance of doing that.  The Islanders also went 4-0-0, and moved into the top 5 for the first time this year.  Toronto remains in the top 5, but dropped from 2nd in our rankings to 3rd.  They started the week strong with two convincing wins against the Oilers, but then lost twice in Vancouver.  Boston and Colorado round out the top 5, tied for 5th.  Boston went 1-1-1, and Colorado went 2-1-1.

As I said earlier, the playoff picture is starting to come into focus already.  In the Central Division, Tampa Bay, Carolina, and Florida all have a greater than 90% chance of making the playoffs.  The fourth playoff spot remains a toss-up, with Chicago at 56%, Dallas at 28%, and Columbus at 19% all having reasonable chances.  We give Detroit less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs.

In the East Division, the Islanders (86%), Bruins (83%), and Capitals (80%) are favourites to make the playoffs.  The last playoff spot is close, with the Flyers (67%) and Penguins (57%) being the strongest contenders.  The Rangers can’t be counted out at 19%.

In the West Division, Vegas should make the playoffs — we’re giving them a 96% chance.  Colorado is also likely, at 83%.  Minnesota and St. Louis both have a 70% chance, followed by LA at 40% and Arizona at 28%.

In the North Division, Toronto should be a shoe-in at 99%.  Winnipeg (87%), Edmonton (83%), and Montreal (80%) are the next most likely teams, but being in the first half of the season, things can still change quite a bit.  Calgary still has a 35% chance, and even Vancouver has a shot at 16%, and with their two wins this week against Toronto, they show they could surprise.

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

The top 5

1. Tampa Bay Lightning (1593, ▲11)

Record: 17-4-2, 1st in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 99% (▲2)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 41% (▲13)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 14% (▲2)

Last week: 3-0-1

• March 2: Won 2-0 @ Dallas Stars (20th, 1488)
• March 4: Won in OT 3-2 @ Chicago Blackhawks (22th, 1482)
• March 5: Lost in SO 4-3 @ Chicago Blackhawks (22th, 1482)
• March 7: Won 6-3 @ Chicago Blackhawks (22th, 1482)

Next week:

• March 9: @ Detroit Red Wings (31th, 1400)
• March 11: @ Detroit Red Wings (31th, 1400)
• March 13: vs. Nashville Predators (26th, 1457)

2. Vegas Golden Knights ▲4 (1555, ▲10)

Record: 16-4-1, 1st in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 96% (▲8)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 15% (▲7)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲1)

Last week: 4-0-0

• March 1: Won in OT 5-4 vs. Minnesota Wild (13th, 1516)
• March 3: Won 5-1 vs. Minnesota Wild (13th, 1516)
• March 5: Won in OT 5-4 @ San Jose Sharks (27th, 1451)
• March 6: Won 4-0 @ San Jose Sharks (27th, 1451)

Next week:

• March 8: @ Minnesota Wild (13th, 1516)
• March 10: @ Minnesota Wild (13th, 1516)
• March 12: @ St. Louis Blues (12th, 1521)
• March 13: @ St. Louis Blues (12th, 1521)

3 (tie). New York Islanders ▲5 (1554, ▲20)

Record: 15-6-4, 1st in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 86% (▲15)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 4% (▲2)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲3)

Last week: 4-0-0

• March 2: Won 2-1 @ New Jersey Devils (25th, 1463)
• March 4: Won 5-2 vs. Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1425)
• March 6: Won 5-2 vs. Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1425)
• March 7: Won 5-2 vs. Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1425)

Next week:

• March 9: vs. Boston Bruins (5th, 1548)
• March 11: vs. New Jersey Devils (25th, 1463)
• March 13: @ New Jersey Devils (25th, 1463)
• March 14: @ New Jersey Devils (25th, 1463)

3 (tie). Toronto Maple Leafs ▼1 (1554, ▼2)

Record: 18-6-2, 1st in North Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 99% (▲1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 13% (▼8)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▼1)

Last week: 2-2-0

• March 1: Won 3-0 @ Edmonton Oilers (11th, 1523)
• March 3: Won 6-1 @ Edmonton Oilers (11th, 1523)
• March 4: Lost 3-1 @ Vancouver Canucks (24th, 1475)
• March 6: Lost 4-2 @ Vancouver Canucks (24th, 1475)

Next week:

• March 9: vs. Winnipeg Jets (14th, 1506)
• March 11: vs. Winnipeg Jets (14th, 1506)
• March 13: vs. Winnipeg Jets (14th, 1506)
• March 14: @ Ottawa Senators (30th, 1413)

5 (tie). Boston Bruins (1548, ▼5)

Record: 13-6-3, 3rd in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 83% (▼4)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 3% (▼4)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▼1)

Last week: 1-1-1

• March 3: Lost in SO 2-1 vs. Washington Capitals (7th, 1543)
• March 5: Won 5-1 vs. Washington Capitals (7th, 1543)
• March 7: Lost 1-0 vs. New Jersey Devils (25th, 1463)

Next week:

• March 9: @ New York Islanders (3rd, 1554)
• March 11: vs. New York Rangers (17th, 1493)
• March 13: vs. New York Rangers (17th, 1493)

5 (tie). Colorado Avalanche ▼3 (1548, ▼8)

Record: 13-7-2, 3rd in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 83% (▼3)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 2% (▼3)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▼1)

Last week: 2-1-1

• March 1: Lost 6-2 @ San Jose Sharks (27th, 1451)
• March 3: Won 4-0 @ San Jose Sharks (27th, 1451)
• March 5: Won in OT 3-2 vs. Anaheim Ducks (28th, 1445)
• March 6: Lost in OT 5-4 vs. Anaheim Ducks (28th, 1445)

Next week:

• March 8: vs. Arizona Coyotes (19th, 1490)
• March 10: vs. Arizona Coyotes (19th, 1490)
• March 12: vs. Los Angeles Kings (18th, 1491)
• March 14: vs. Los Angeles Kings (18th, 1491)

Overall Ratings

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           1593 (▲11)
 2       Vegas Golden Knights (▲4)     1555 (▲10)
 3 (tie) New York Islanders (▲5)       1554 (▲20)
 3 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      1554 (▼2)
 5 (tie) Boston Bruins                 1548 (▼5)
 5 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼3)       1548 (▼8)
 7       Washington Capitals           1543 (▲4)
 8       Carolina Hurricanes (▲3)      1539 (▲19)
 9       Philadelphia Flyers (▼5)      1537 (▼18)
10       Florida Panthers              1529 (▲6)
11       Edmonton Oilers (▼2)          1523 (▼9)
12       St. Louis Blues (▲2)          1521 (▲14)
13       Minnesota Wild (▼2)           1516 (▼4)
14 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲3)       1506 (▲11)
14 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            1506 (▼10)
16       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲3)      1504 (▲16)
17       New York Rangers (▲6)         1493 (▲15)
18       Los Angeles Kings (▼3)        1491 (▼9)
19       Arizona Coyotes (▲2)          1490 (▲9)
20       Dallas Stars (▼4)             1488 (▼9)
21       Columbus Blue Jackets         1487 (▲6)
22       Chicago Blackhawks (▼2)       1482 (▼4)
23       Calgary Flames (▼5)           1481 (▼11)
24       Vancouver Canucks (▲3)        1475 (▲22)
25       New Jersey Devils             1463 (▼12)
26       Nashville Predators (▼2)      1457 (▼20)
27       San Jose Sharks (▼1)          1451 (▼3)
28       Anaheim Ducks (▼1)            1445 (▼8)
29       Buffalo Sabres                1425 (▼19)
30       Ottawa Senators               1413
31       Detroit Red Wings             1400 (▼9)

Chances of Winning Division

Central Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           67% (▲6)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      20% (▲6)
 3       Florida Panthers (▼1)         12% (▼6)
 4       Chicago Blackhawks            1% (▼3)
 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2)    <1%
 5 (tie) Dallas Stars                  <1% (▼2)
 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲2)        <1%
 5 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲1)      <1% (▼1)

East Division

 1       New York Islanders (▲3)       31% (▲18)
 2       Boston Bruins (▼1)            26% (▼6)
 3       Washington Capitals           22% (▲3)
 4       Philadelphia Flyers (▼2)      13% (▼17)
 5       Pittsburgh Penguins           7% (▲3)
 6       New York Rangers              1%
 7 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           <1%
 7 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼1)        <1% (▼1)

West Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          58% (▲20)
 2       Colorado Avalanche            19% (▼10)
 3 (tie) Minnesota Wild                10% (▼10)
 3 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲1)          10% (▲4)
 5       Los Angeles Kings             2% (▼3)
 6       Arizona Coyotes               1%
 7 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            <1%
 7 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼1)          <1% (▼1)

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           67% (▲5)
 2       Winnipeg Jets                 15% (▼3)
 3       Montreal Canadiens (▲1)       10% (▲5)
 4       Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          8% (▼5)
 5       Calgary Flames                1% (▼1)
 6 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%
 6 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             <1%

Making the Playoffs

Central Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           99% (▲2)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      96% (▲13)
 3       Florida Panthers (▼1)         91% (▲5)
 4       Chicago Blackhawks            56% (▲1)
 5       Dallas Stars                  28% (▼11)
 6       Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    19% (▲3)
 7       Nashville Predators (▼1)      10% (▼13)
 8       Detroit Red Wings             <1% (▼1)

East Division

 1       New York Islanders (▲3)       86% (▲15)
 2       Boston Bruins (▼1)            83% (▼4)
 3       Washington Capitals           80% (▲3)
 4       Philadelphia Flyers (▼2)      67% (▼18)
 5       Pittsburgh Penguins           57% (▲14)
 6       New York Rangers (▲1)         19% (▲5)
 7       New Jersey Devils (▼1)        7% (▼12)
 8       Buffalo Sabres                1% (▼4)

West Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          96% (▲8)
 2       Colorado Avalanche            83% (▼3)
 3 (tie) Minnesota Wild                70% (▼7)
 3 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲1)          70% (▲19)
 5       Los Angeles Kings             40% (▼10)
 6       Arizona Coyotes               28% (▲4)
 7       San Jose Sharks               9% (▼6)
 8       Anaheim Ducks                 4% (▼4)

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           99% (▲1)
 2       Winnipeg Jets                 87%
 3       Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          83% (▼4)
 4       Montreal Canadiens            80% (▲13)
 5       Calgary Flames                35% (▼15)
 6       Vancouver Canucks             16% (▲9)
 7       Ottawa Senators               2% (▼1)

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           41% (▲13)
 2       Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     15% (▲7)
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      13% (▼8)
 4       Carolina Hurricanes (▲4)      10% (▲6)
 5       Florida Panthers (▲1)         5%
 6       New York Islanders (▲6)       4% (▲2)
 7       Boston Bruins (▼3)            3% (▼4)
 8 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼2)       2% (▼3)
 8 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲1)      2% (▼1)
10 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼1)           1% (▼2)
10 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲4)       1%
10 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼6)      1% (▼6)
10 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲5)          1% (▲1)
10 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            1% (▼2)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           14% (▲2)
 2 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           8% (▼1)
 2 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     8% (▲1)
 4       New York Islanders (▲6)       7% (▲3)
 5 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼2)            6% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲5)      6% (▲2)
 5 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼2)       6% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲2)      6% (▲1)
 9 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼2)         5%
 9 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼6)      5% (▼2)
11 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼4)          4% (▼1)
11 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲3)          4% (▲1)
13 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼3)           3% (▼1)
13 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲2)       3% (▲1)
13 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼3)            3% (▼1)
16       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲4)      2% (▲1)
17 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲3)          1%
17 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼2)           1% (▼1)
17 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▼2)       1% (▼1)
17 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲3)    1%
17 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼2)             1% (▼1)
17 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼2)        1% (▼1)
17 (tie) New York Rangers (▲3)         1%
17 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲9)        1% (▲1)
25 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            <1%
25 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           <1%
25 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        <1%
25 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼5)      <1% (▼1)
25 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼5)        <1% (▼1)
25 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1)          <1%
25 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1)          <1%

 

After a bad week last week, Tampa Bay turned things around and moved back to the top of our ratings.  After going 0-2-0 and dropping down to fourth in the rankings last week, they won all 4 of their games this week and jumped 25 rating points.  Meanwhile, Boston, last week’s number one, went 1-2-0 and dropped down to fifth in the rankings, although they are just 3 rating points out of 2nd.  Colorado and Toronto both remained tied for second in the rankings, both having middling weeks.  Colorado went 2-2-0, and Toronto were 2-1-0, with one of their wins being in overtime.  Philadelphia had a good week, moving back into the top 5 with a 3-0-0 record, although their wins came against the Rangers (ranked 23rd) and two against the Sabres (29th).

Tampa Bay are the favourites to win the Stanley Cup, grabbing the prize in 12% of our simulations.  Toronto, last week’s favourite, have now dropped to 2nd favourite, winning in 9% of the simulations.  Toronto is the most likely to make the playoffs (98%), with Tampa Bay close behind at 97%.  Currently, they are the only two teams to have a greater than 90% chance of making the playoffs, but I’m sure that will change as the season moves along.

Big movers in the ratings this week include Tampa Bay (+25 points), Minnesota (+22), and Washington (+20).  Minnesota went 4-0-0, with one of their wins in OT.  The big win for them was a 6-2 road victory over 2nd ranked Colorado.  They saw their chances of making the playoffs take a big jump, up to 77% (last week it was 51%).  Washington went 3-0-1, but their games were against 19th-ranked Pittsburgh and 25th ranked New Jersey.  They’ll have a big test this week, facing the Bruins twice and the Flyers once.

On the downside, Columbus and New Jersey both dropped 24 points, and Carolina lost 19 points.  Columbus went 0-3-1, and saw their playoff chances drop from 40% to 16%.  New Jersey went 1-3-0, with their only win coming in overtime against 29th ranked Buffalo, although two of their losses were to 7th ranked Washington.  Carolina, ranked number 5 last week, went 1-3-0, although their three losses were to top-ranked Tampa Bay.  Our simulations show that they have a 4% chance of winning the President’s Trophy, down from 13% last week!

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

The top 5

1. Tampa Bay Lightning ▲3 (1582, ▲25)

Record: 14-4-1, 1st in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 97% (▲10)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 28% (▲17)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 12% (▲4)

Last week: 4-0-0

• February 22: Won 4-2 @ Carolina Hurricanes (11th, 1520)
• February 24: Won 3-0 vs. Carolina Hurricanes (11th, 1520)
• February 25: Won 3-1 vs. Carolina Hurricanes (11th, 1520)
• February 27: Won 5-0 vs. Dallas Stars (16th, 1497)

Next week:

• March 2: @ Dallas Stars (16th, 1497)
• March 4: @ Chicago Blackhawks (20th, 1486)
• March 5: @ Chicago Blackhawks (20th, 1486)
• March 7: @ Chicago Blackhawks (20th, 1486)

2 (tie). Colorado Avalanche (1556, ▼4)

Record: 11-6-1, 4th in West Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 86% (▼1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 5% (▼4)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▼2)

Last week: 2-2-0

• February 22: Lost 3-0 vs. Vegas Golden Knights (6th, 1545)
• February 24: Lost 6-2 vs. Minnesota Wild (11th, 1520)
• February 26: Won 3-2 @ Arizona Coyotes (21th, 1481)
• February 27: Won 6-2 @ Arizona Coyotes (21th, 1481)

Next week:

• March 1: @ San Jose Sharks (26th, 1454)
• March 3: @ San Jose Sharks (26th, 1454)
• March 5: vs. Anaheim Ducks (27th, 1453)
• March 6: vs. Anaheim Ducks (27th, 1453)

2 (tie). Toronto Maple Leafs (1556, ▼4)

Record: 16-4-2, 1st in North Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 98%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 21% (▼2)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▼1)

Last week: 2-1-0

• February 22: Lost 3-0 vs. Calgary Flames (18th, 1492)
• February 24: Won in OT 2-1 vs. Calgary Flames (18th, 1492)
• February 27: Won 4-0 @ Edmonton Oilers (9th, 1532)

Next week:

• March 1: @ Edmonton Oilers (9th, 1532)
• March 3: @ Edmonton Oilers (9th, 1532)
• March 4: @ Vancouver Canucks (27th, 1453)
• March 6: @ Vancouver Canucks (27th, 1453)

4. Philadelphia Flyers ▲2 (1555, ▲18)

Record: 11-4-3, 4th in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 85% (▲14)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 7% (▲4)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲2)

Last week: 3-0-0

• February 24: Won 4-3 vs. New York Rangers (23th, 1478)
• February 27: Won 3-0 @ Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1444)
• February 28: Won 3-0 @ Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1444)

Next week:

• March 2: @ Pittsburgh Penguins (19th, 1488)
• March 4: @ Pittsburgh Penguins (19th, 1488)
• March 6: @ Pittsburgh Penguins (19th, 1488)
• March 7: vs. Washington Capitals (7th, 1539)

5. Boston Bruins ▼4 (1553, ▼8)

Record: 12-5-2, 2nd in East Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 87% (▼4)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 7% (▼7)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▼2)

Last week: 1-2-0

• February 25: Lost 7-2 @ New York Islanders (8th, 1534)
• February 26: Lost 6-2 @ New York Rangers (23th, 1478)
• February 28: Won 4-1 @ New York Rangers (23th, 1478)

Next week:

• March 3: vs. Washington Capitals (7th, 1539)
• March 5: vs. Washington Capitals (7th, 1539)
• March 7: vs. New Jersey Devils (25th, 1475)

Overall Ratings

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning (▲3)      1582 (▲25)
 2 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            1556 (▼4)
 2 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           1556 (▼4)
 4       Philadelphia Flyers (▲2)      1555 (▲18)
 5       Boston Bruins (▼4)            1553 (▼8)
 6       Vegas Golden Knights          1545 (▲8)
 7       Washington Capitals (▲3)      1539 (▲20)
 8       New York Islanders (▲3)       1534 (▲17)
 9       Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          1532 (▲6)
10       Florida Panthers (▼1)         1523 (▲2)
11 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▼6)      1520 (▼19)
11 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲7)           1520 (▲22)
13       Winnipeg Jets                 1516 (▲5)
14       St. Louis Blues (▼3)          1507 (▼10)
15       Los Angeles Kings (▲6)        1500 (▲13)
16       Dallas Stars (▼2)             1497 (▼8)
17       Montreal Canadiens (▼1)       1495 (▼6)
18       Calgary Flames (▲5)           1492 (▲11)
19       Pittsburgh Penguins           1488 (▼9)
20       Chicago Blackhawks (▲3)       1486 (▲5)
21 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▼1)          1481 (▼10)
21 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼7)    1481 (▼24)
23       New York Rangers (▼1)         1478 (▼5)
24       Nashville Predators (▲3)      1477 (▲13)
25       New Jersey Devils (▼8)        1475 (▼24)
26       San Jose Sharks (▼1)          1454 (▼15)
27 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            1453 (▼3)
27 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼1)        1453 (▼14)
29       Buffalo Sabres                1444 (▼8)
30       Ottawa Senators               1413 (▲2)
31       Detroit Red Wings             1409 (▲6)

Chances of Winning Division

Central Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      61% (▲30)
 2       Florida Panthers (▲1)         18% (▼3)
 3       Carolina Hurricanes (▼2)      14% (▼21)
 4       Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       4% (▲1)
 5       Dallas Stars (▼1)             2% (▼4)
 6       Nashville Predators (▲1)      1% (▲1)
 7 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼2)    <1% (▼3)
 7 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%

East Division

 1       Boston Bruins                 32% (▼18)
 2       Philadelphia Flyers           30% (▲13)
 3       Washington Capitals           19% (▲9)
 4       New York Islanders            13% (▲5)
 5       Pittsburgh Penguins           4% (▼2)
 6 (tie) New York Rangers (▲1)         1% (▼1)
 6 (tie) New Jersey Devils             1% (▼4)
 8       Buffalo Sabres                <1% (▼1)

West Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     38% (▲9)
 2       Colorado Avalanche (▼1)       29% (▼10)
 3       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           20% (▲12)
 4       St. Louis Blues (▼1)          6% (▼7)
 5       Los Angeles Kings             5% (▲1)
 6 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               1% (▼2)
 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks               1% (▼2)
 8       Anaheim Ducks                 <1% (▼1)

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           62% (▼1)
 2       Winnipeg Jets                 18% (▲5)
 3       Edmonton Oilers               13% (▲1)
 4       Montreal Canadiens            5% (▼4)
 5       Calgary Flames                2%
 6 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%
 6 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             <1%

Making the Playoffs

Central Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      97% (▲10)
 2       Florida Panthers (▲1)         86% (▲7)
 3       Carolina Hurricanes (▼2)      83% (▼6)
 4       Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       55% (▲14)
 5       Dallas Stars (▼1)             39% (▼10)
 6       Nashville Predators (▲1)      23% (▲10)
 7       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1)    16% (▼24)
 8       Detroit Red Wings             1%

East Division

 1       Boston Bruins                 87% (▼4)
 2       Philadelphia Flyers           85% (▲14)
 3       Washington Capitals           77% (▲18)
 4       New York Islanders            71% (▲16)
 5       Pittsburgh Penguins           43% (▼5)
 6       New Jersey Devils             19% (▼23)
 7       New York Rangers              14% (▼8)
 8       Buffalo Sabres                5% (▼7)

West Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     88% (▲7)
 2       Colorado Avalanche (▼1)       86% (▼1)
 3       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           77% (▲26)
 4       St. Louis Blues (▼1)          51% (▼14)
 5       Los Angeles Kings             50% (▲10)
 6       Arizona Coyotes               24% (▼10)
 7       San Jose Sharks               15% (▼14)
 8       Anaheim Ducks                 8% (▼4)

North Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           98%
 2 (tie) Edmonton Oilers               87% (▲4)
 2 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            87% (▲6)
 4       Montreal Canadiens            67% (▼8)
 5       Calgary Flames                50% (▲8)
 6       Vancouver Canucks             7% (▼11)
 7       Ottawa Senators               3%

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning (▲3)      28% (▲17)
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      21% (▼2)
 3       Vegas Golden Knights (▲4)     8% (▲3)
 4 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼2)            7% (▼7)
 4 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲4)      7% (▲4)
 6 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼1)       5% (▼4)
 6 (tie) Florida Panthers              5% (▼2)
 8       Carolina Hurricanes (▼5)      4% (▼9)
 9 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲3)           3% (▲2)
 9 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲3)      3% (▲2)
 9 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 3% (▲1)
12 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼3)          2%
12 (tie) New York Islanders            2% (▲1)
14       Montreal Canadiens (▼5)       1% (▼1)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning (▲3)      12% (▲4)
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      9% (▼1)
 3 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1)            7% (▼2)
 3 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼1)       7% (▼2)
 3 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲4)      7% (▲2)
 3 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲2)     7% (▲1)
 7 (tie) Edmonton Oilers               5%
 7 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲2)         5% (▲1)
 7 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲2)      5% (▲1)
10 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▼5)      4% (▼2)
10 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲6)           4% (▲2)
10 (tie) New York Islanders (▲3)       4% (▲1)
10 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            4%
14       St. Louis Blues (▼5)          3% (▼1)
15 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲7)           2% (▲1)
15 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲7)       2% (▲1)
15 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼2)             2% (▼1)
15 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        2%
15 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▼2)       2% (▼1)
20 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▼4)          1% (▼1)
20 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼4)    1% (▼1)
20 (tie) New York Rangers (▲2)         1%
20 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲2)      1%
20 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼4)        1% (▼1)
20 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼4)      1% (▼1)
26 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲2)            <1%
26 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲2)           <1%
26 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲2)        <1%
26 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲2)          <1%
26 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼4)          <1% (▼1)
26 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼4)        <1% (▼1)