There were two games on the playoff slate today.  In the first game, Tampa Bay hosted Carolina in the 4th game of the Central Division final, with a lead of 2 games to 1.  In a high scoring affair, Tampa Bay won 6-4.  There were 8 goals scored in the 2nd period, 4 for each team!  Tampa Bay led 1-0 after the first, but fell behind 4-2 at one point in the 2nd.  But, they took the lead 5-4 after 2, and scored one more in the 3rd to put the game away.  Tampa Bay now leads the series 3-1, and we’re giving them an 85.9% chance of winning the series.

In the second game of the night, Boston played the New York Islanders in the old barn on Long Island.  Home ice was kind to the Isles as they won 4-1, scoring two empty net goals late in the 3rd period.  1st star of the game was Mathew Barzal, who scored the winning goal and assisted on New York’s first goal, and was also on the receiving end of a slash to the groin by Boston’s David Krejci.  That’s never fun.  But, the East Division final is now tied 2-2, and the teams head back to Boston with the Bruins favoured to win the series with a 59.4% chance of doing so.

Tonight’s games feature Winnipeg visiting Montreal, with Montreal leading the North Division final 2 games to 0, and Vegas hosting Colorado in the sold-out T-Mobile Arena.  Colorado leads the West Division final 2-1.

Yesterday’s Games

Central Division Final

Carolina 4 at Tampa Bay 6

• Tampa Bay leads series 3-1
• Tampa Bay now has an 85.9% chance of winning the series, up from 66.9%

Series schedule:

• May 30: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
• June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
• June 3: Carolina 3 at Tampa Bay 2 (OT)
• June 5: Carolina 4 at Tampa Bay 6
• June 8: Tampa Bay at Carolina
• June 10: Carolina at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 12: Tampa Bay at Carolina (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Carolina has a 14.1% chance of winning (▼19.0)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0% (▼12.8)
  • In 7 games: 14.1% (▼6.2)
• Tampa Bay has a 85.9% chance of winning (▲19.0)
  • In 7 games: 10.2% (▼4.5)
  • In 6 games: 29.7% (▲2.8)
  • In 5 games: 46.0% (▲20.7)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

East Division Final

Boston 1 at New York Islanders 4

• Series tied 2-2
• Boston now has a 59.4% chance of winning the series, down from 76.3%

Series schedule:

• May 29: New York Islanders 2 at Boston 5
• May 31: New York Islanders 4 at Boston 3 (OT)
• June 3: Boston 2 at New York Islanders 1 (OT)
• June 5: Boston 1 at New York Islanders 4
• June 7: New York Islanders at Boston
• June 9: Boston at New York Islanders
• June 11: New York Islanders at Boston (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Boston has a 59.4% chance of winning (▼16.9)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼32.6)
  • In 6 games: 30.6% (▲6.4)
  • In 7 games: 28.7% (▲9.1)
• New York Islanders has a 40.6% chance of winning (▲16.9)
  • In 7 games: 19.1% (▲6.0)
  • In 6 games: 21.6% (▲11.0)
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Games

North Division Final

Winnipeg at Montreal

• Montreal leads series 2-0
• Montreal has an 80.3% chance of winning the series

West Division Final

Colorado at Vegas

• Colorado leads series 2-1
• Colorado has a 79.2% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups – Division Finals

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Tampa Bay leads series 3-1

Chances of winning: Carolina 14%, Tampa Bay 86%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Carolina: 1572, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1554, 6th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Carolina: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Tampa Bay: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last round:

• Carolina: Defeated Nashville in 6 games
• Tampa Bay: Defeated Florida in 6 games

Series schedule:

• May 30: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
• June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
• June 3: Carolina 3 at Tampa Bay 2 (OT)
• June 5: Carolina 4 at Tampa Bay 6
• June 8: Tampa Bay at Carolina
• June 10: Carolina at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 12: Tampa Bay at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Carolina has a 14.1% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 7 games: 14.1%
• Tampa Bay has a 85.9% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 10.2%
  • In 6 games: 29.7%
  • In 5 games: 46.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

East Division

Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: Boston 59%, New York Islanders 41%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Boston: 1582, 2nd overall
• New York Islanders: 1543, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Boston: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• New York Islanders: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win

Last round:

• Boston: Defeated Washington in 5 games
• New York Islanders: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games

Series schedule:

• May 29: New York Islanders 2 at Boston 5
• May 31: New York Islanders 4 at Boston 3 (OT)
• June 3: Boston 2 at New York Islanders 1 (OT)
• June 5: Boston 1 at New York Islanders 4
• June 7: New York Islanders at Boston
• June 9: Boston at New York Islanders
• June 11: New York Islanders at Boston (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Boston has a 59.4% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 30.6%
  • In 7 games: 28.7%
• New York Islanders has a 40.6% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 19.1%
  • In 6 games: 21.6%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts)

Colorado leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Colorado 79%, Vegas 21%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1638, 1st overall
• Vegas: 1578, 3rd overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Colorado: 4 regulation wins
• Vegas: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last round:

• Colorado: Defeated St. Louis in 4 games
• Vegas: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 30: Vegas 1 at Colorado 7
• June 2: Vegas 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
• June 4: Colorado 2 at Vegas 3
• June 6: Colorado at Vegas
• June 8: Vegas at Colorado
• June 10: Colorado at Vegas (if necessary)
• June 12: Vegas at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 79.2% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 34.9%
  • In 6 games: 25.1%
  • In 7 games: 19.2%
• Vegas has a 20.8% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 11.7%
  • In 6 games: 9.1%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

North Division

Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Montreal leads series 2-0

Chances of winning: Winnipeg 20%, Montreal 80%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Winnipeg: 1526, 7th overall
• Montreal: 1489, 8th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

• Winnipeg: 3 regulation wins, 3 overtime wins
• Montreal: 3 regulation wins

Last round:

• Winnipeg: Defeated Edmonton in 4 games
• Montreal: Defeated Toronto in 7 games

Series schedule:

• June 2: Montreal 5 at Winnipeg 3
• June 4: Montreal 1 at Winnipeg 0
• June 6: Winnipeg at Montreal
• June 7: Winnipeg at Montreal
• June 9: Montreal at Winnipeg (if necessary)
• June 11: Winnipeg at Montreal (if necessary)
• June 13 Montreal at Winnipeg (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Winnipeg has a 19.7% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 6.3%
  • In 7 games: 13.4%
• Montreal has a 80.3% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 8.8%
  • In 6 games: 18.4%
  • In 5 games: 20.6%
  • In 4 games: 32.5%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the division finals started.

 1       Colorado Avalanche            36.0%
 2       Boston Bruins                 15.0%
 3       Carolina Hurricanes           13.0%
 4       Vegas Golden Knights          12.5%
 5       Tampa Bay Lightning           8.7%
 6       New York Islanders            6.3%
 7       Winnipeg Jets                 6.2%
 8       Montreal Canadiens            2.3%

 

There were two very close games last night, but neither went to overtime.  In the first game, Montreal held on to defeat Winnipeg 1-0.  Montreal outplayed Winnipeg for the first 50 minutes, but only held a 1-0 lead.  Winnipeg started to feel desperate, and really turned it on for the last 10 minutes, but once again, Carey Price was outstanding and was able to fend off the onslaught.  Montreal now leads the series 2-0, and head home with an 80.3% chance of winning the series.

In the second game, Vegas, down 2-0 in their series, played at home before a sell-out crowd of 17,504, and used that energy to stage a 3rd period comeback to beat Colorado 3-2.  Vegas came out firing, and outshot Colorado 42-20, but were down 2-1 until they tied it up with 5:18 left in the game.  Then, 45 seconds later, they scored again to take the lead, and that score held up for the rest of the game.  Colorado now leads the series 2-1, and have a 79.2% chance of winning the series.

Two games again today.  In the afternoon game, Tampa Bay hosts Carolina with a 2-1 series lead.  Tampa Bay has a 66.9% chance of winning the series.  In the second game, Boston visits the New York Islanders, leading that series 2-1.  We’re giving Boston a 76.3% chance of winning the series.

Yesterday’s Games

North Division Final

Montreal 1 at Winnipeg 0

• Montreal leads series 2-0
• Montreal now has an 80.3% chance of winning the series, up from 59.3%

Series schedule:

• June 2: Montreal 5 at Winnipeg 3
• June 4: Montreal 1 at Winnipeg 0
• June 6: Winnipeg at Montreal
• June 7: Winnipeg at Montreal
• June 9: Montreal at Winnipeg (if necessary)
• June 11: Winnipeg at Montreal (if necessary)
• June 13 Montreal at Winnipeg (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Winnipeg has a 19.7% chance of winning (▼21.0)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼9.3)
  • In 6 games: 6.3% (▼7.4)
  • In 7 games: 13.4% (▼4.3)
• Montreal has a 80.3% chance of winning (▲21.0)
  • In 7 games: 8.8% (▼3.0)
  • In 6 games: 18.4%
  • In 5 games: 20.6% (▲5.1)
  • In 4 games: 32.5% (▲18.9)

West Division Final

Colorado 2 at Vegas 3

• Colorado leads series 2-1
• Colorado now has a 79.2% chance of winning the series, down from 89.3%

Series schedule:

• May 30: Vegas 1 at Colorado 7
• June 2: Vegas 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
• June 4: Colorado 2 at Vegas 3
• June 6: Colorado at Vegas
• June 8: Vegas at Colorado
• June 10: Colorado at Vegas (if necessary)
• June 12: Vegas at Colorado (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Colorado has a 79.2% chance of winning (▼10.1)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼32.5)
  • In 5 games: 34.9% (▲4.0)
  • In 6 games: 25.1% (▲9.9)
  • In 7 games: 19.2% (▲8.4)
• Vegas has a 20.8% chance of winning (▲10.1)
  • In 7 games: 11.7% (▲5.0)
  • In 6 games: 9.1% (▲5.1)
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Games

Central Division Final

Carolina at Tampa Bay

• Tampa Bay leads series 2-1
• Tampa Bay has a 66.9% chance of winning the series

East Division Final

Boston at New York Islanders

• Boston leads series 2-1
• Boston has a 76.3% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups – Division Finals

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Tampa Bay leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Carolina 33%, Tampa Bay 67%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Carolina: 1572, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1554, 6th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Carolina: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Tampa Bay: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last round:

• Carolina: Defeated Nashville in 6 games
• Tampa Bay: Defeated Florida in 6 games

Series schedule:

• May 30: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
• June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
• June 3: Carolina 3 at Tampa Bay 2 (OT)
• June 5: Carolina at Tampa Bay
• June 8: Tampa Bay at Carolina
• June 10: Carolina at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 12: Tampa Bay at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Carolina has a 33.1% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 12.8%
  • In 7 games: 20.3%
• Tampa Bay has a 66.9% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.7%
  • In 6 games: 26.9%
  • In 5 games: 25.3%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

East Division

Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Boston leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Boston 76%, New York Islanders 24%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Boston: 1582, 2nd overall
• New York Islanders: 1543, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Boston: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• New York Islanders: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win

Last round:

• Boston: Defeated Washington in 5 games
• New York Islanders: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games

Series schedule:

• May 29: New York Islanders 2 at Boston 5
• May 31: New York Islanders 4 at Boston 3 (OT)
• June 3: Boston 2 at New York Islanders 1 (OT)
• June 5: Boston at New York Islanders
• June 7: New York Islanders at Boston
• June 9: Boston at New York Islanders (if necessary)
• June 11: New York Islanders at Boston (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Boston has a 76.3% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 32.6%
  • In 6 games: 24.2%
  • In 7 games: 19.6%
• New York Islanders has a 23.7% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 13.1%
  • In 6 games: 10.6%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts)

Colorado leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Colorado 79%, Vegas 21%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1638, 1st overall
• Vegas: 1578, 3rd overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Colorado: 4 regulation wins
• Vegas: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last round:

• Colorado: Defeated St. Louis in 4 games
• Vegas: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 30: Vegas 1 at Colorado 7
• June 2: Vegas 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
• June 4: Colorado 2 at Vegas 3
• June 6: Colorado at Vegas
• June 8: Vegas at Colorado
• June 10: Colorado at Vegas (if necessary)
• June 12: Vegas at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 79.2% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 34.9%
  • In 6 games: 25.1%
  • In 7 games: 19.2%
• Vegas has a 20.8% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 11.7%
  • In 6 games: 9.1%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

North Division

Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Montreal leads series 2-0

Chances of winning: Winnipeg 20%, Montreal 80%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Winnipeg: 1526, 7th overall
• Montreal: 1489, 8th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

• Winnipeg: 3 regulation wins, 3 overtime wins
• Montreal: 3 regulation wins

Last round:

• Winnipeg: Defeated Edmonton in 4 games
• Montreal: Defeated Toronto in 7 games

Series schedule:

• June 2: Montreal 5 at Winnipeg 3
• June 4: Montreal 1 at Winnipeg 0
• June 6: Winnipeg at Montreal
• June 7: Winnipeg at Montreal
• June 9: Montreal at Winnipeg (if necessary)
• June 11: Winnipeg at Montreal (if necessary)
• June 13 Montreal at Winnipeg (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Winnipeg has a 19.7% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 6.3%
  • In 7 games: 13.4%
• Montreal has a 80.3% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 8.8%
  • In 6 games: 18.4%
  • In 5 games: 20.6%
  • In 4 games: 32.5%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the division finals started.

 1       Colorado Avalanche            36.0%
 2       Boston Bruins                 15.0%
 3       Carolina Hurricanes           13.0%
 4       Vegas Golden Knights          12.5%
 5       Tampa Bay Lightning           8.7%
 6       New York Islanders            6.3%
 7       Winnipeg Jets                 6.2%
 8       Montreal Canadiens            2.3%

 

Two games yesterday, both went into overtime, and the visiting team won in both.

In the first game of the day, Boston travelled to Long Island to play the New York Islanders.  Boston dominated the game in the third period, but Semyon Varlamov was strong in net for New York, and Boston only led 1-0 until the Islanders scored with just over 5 minutes to go.  There was no more scoring, despite Boston taking 21 shots in the 3rd period.  But, Brad Marchand scored 3:36 into the overtime period to win it for Boston.  Boston now has a 76.3% chance of winning the series.

In the nightcap, Carolina visited Tampa Bay, down 2-0 in the series.  Desperately needing a win, Carolina took a two goal lead in the 2nd period, but Tampa Bay quickly scored two powerplay goals to even the score at 2.  No one was able to score in the 3rd period, and the game went to overtime, where Jordan Staal deflected a Sebastian Aho shot to win the game for Carolina at 5:57 of overtime.  Aho scored one goal and assisted on Carolina’s other two goals.  Tampa Bay now leads the series 2-1, and we’re giving them a 66.9% chance of winning the series.

In tonight’s games, Montreal is in Winnipeg for the second game of the North Division Final, and Colorado heads to Vegas for the third game of the West Division Final.  Montreal leads their series 1-0, and we’re giving them a 59.3% chance of winning the series.  Colorado, undefeated in the playoffs so far, lead their series 2-0, and we’re calculated that they’ve got an 89.3% chance of winning the series, and a 32.9% chance of a second series sweep.

Yesterday’s Games

East Division Final

Boston 2 at New York Islanders 1 (OT)

• Boston leads series 2-1
• Boston now has a 76.3% chance of winning the series, up from 23.7%

Series schedule:

• May 29: New York Islanders 2 at Boston 5
• May 31: New York Islanders 4 at Boston 3 (OT)
• June 3: Boston 2 at New York Islanders 1 (OT)
• June 5: Boston at New York Islanders
• June 7: New York Islanders at Boston
• June 9: Boston at New York Islanders (if necessary)
• June 11: New York Islanders at Boston (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Boston has a 76.3% chance of winning (▲20.1)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 32.6% (▲16.6)
  • In 6 games: 24.2% (▲4.9)
  • In 7 games: 19.6% (▼1.3)
• New York Islanders has a 23.7% chance of winning (▼20.1)
  • In 7 games: 13.1% (▼0.6)
  • In 6 games: 10.6% (▼7.6)
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼11.9)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Central Division Final

Carolina 3 at Tampa Bay 2 (OT)

• Tampa Bay leads series 2-1
• Tampa Bay now has a 66.9% chance of winning the series, down from 82.7%

Series schedule:

• May 30: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
• June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
• June 3: Carolina 3 at Tampa Bay 2 (OT)
• June 5: Carolina at Tampa Bay
• June 8: Tampa Bay at Carolina
• June 10: Carolina at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 12: Tampa Bay at Carolina (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Carolina has a 33.1% chance of winning (▲15.8)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 12.8% (▲7.4)
  • In 7 games: 20.3% (▲8.4)
• Tampa Bay has a 66.9% chance of winning (▼15.8)
  • In 7 games: 14.7% (▲6.2)
  • In 6 games: 26.9% (▲8.7)
  • In 5 games: 25.3% (▲4.0)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼34.7)

Today’s Games

North Division Final

Montreal at Winnipeg

• Montreal leads series 1-0
• Montreal has a 59.3% chance of winning the series

West Division Final

Colorado at Vegas

• Colorado leads series 2-0
• Colorado has an 89.3% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups – Division Finals

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Tampa Bay leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Carolina 33%, Tampa Bay 67%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Carolina: 1572, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1554, 6th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Carolina: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Tampa Bay: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last round:

• Carolina: Defeated Nashville in 6 games
• Tampa Bay: Defeated Florida in 6 games

Series schedule:

• May 30: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
• June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
• June 3: Carolina 3 at Tampa Bay 2 (OT)
• June 5: Carolina at Tampa Bay
• June 8: Tampa Bay at Carolina
• June 10: Carolina at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 12: Tampa Bay at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Carolina has a 33.1% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 12.8%
  • In 7 games: 20.3%
• Tampa Bay has a 66.9% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.7%
  • In 6 games: 26.9%
  • In 5 games: 25.3%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

East Division

Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Boston leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Boston 76%, New York Islanders 24%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Boston: 1582, 2nd overall
• New York Islanders: 1543, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Boston: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• New York Islanders: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win

Last round:

• Boston: Defeated Washington in 5 games
• New York Islanders: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games

Series schedule:

• May 29: New York Islanders 2 at Boston 5
• May 31: New York Islanders 4 at Boston 3 (OT)
• June 3: Boston 2 at New York Islanders 1 (OT)
• June 5: Boston at New York Islanders
• June 7: New York Islanders at Boston
• June 9: Boston at New York Islanders (if necessary)
• June 11: New York Islanders at Boston (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Boston has a 76.3% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 32.6%
  • In 6 games: 24.2%
  • In 7 games: 19.6%
• New York Islanders has a 23.7% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 13.1%
  • In 6 games: 10.6%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts)

Colorado leads series 2-0

Chances of winning: Colorado 89%, Vegas 11%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1638, 1st overall
• Vegas: 1578, 3rd overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Colorado: 4 regulation wins
• Vegas: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last round:

• Colorado: Defeated St. Louis in 4 games
• Vegas: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 30: Vegas 1 at Colorado 7
• June 2: Vegas 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
• June 4: Colorado at Vegas
• June 6: Colorado at Vegas
• June 8: Vegas at Colorado (if necessary)
• June 10: Colorado at Vegas (if necessary)
• June 12: Vegas at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 89.3% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 32.5%
  • In 5 games: 30.9%
  • In 6 games: 15.2%
  • In 7 games: 10.8%
• Vegas has a 10.7% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 6.7%
  • In 6 games: 4.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

North Division

Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Montreal leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Winnipeg 41%, Montreal 59%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Winnipeg: 1526, 7th overall
• Montreal: 1489, 8th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

• Winnipeg: 3 regulation wins, 3 overtime wins
• Montreal: 3 regulation wins

Last round:

• Winnipeg: Defeated Edmonton in 4 games
• Montreal: Defeated Toronto in 7 games

Series schedule:

• June 2: Montreal 5 at Winnipeg 3
• June 4: Montreal at Winnipeg
• June 6: Winnipeg at Montreal
• June 7: Winnipeg at Montreal
• June 9: Montreat at Winnipeg (if necessary)
• June 11: Winnipeg at Montreal (if necessary)
• June 13 Montreal at Winnipeg (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Winnipeg has a 40.7% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 9.3%
  • In 6 games: 13.7%
  • In 7 games: 17.7%
• Montreal has a 59.3% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 11.8%
  • In 6 games: 18.4%
  • In 5 games: 15.5%
  • In 4 games: 13.6%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the division finals started.

 1       Colorado Avalanche            36.0%
 2       Boston Bruins                 15.0%
 3       Carolina Hurricanes           13.0%
 4       Vegas Golden Knights          12.5%
 5       Tampa Bay Lightning           8.7%
 6       New York Islanders            6.3%
 7       Winnipeg Jets                 6.2%
 8       Montreal Canadiens            2.3%

 

The McDonald NHL Power Ratings Playoff Reports are back!  After a short hiatus, I’m back at my computer and have updated everything.  Note that I’ve also included the final reports from the first round series; that’s only because I haven’t released those before, and they’ll be gone in tomorrow’s report.

We’ve also calculated the chances of each team winning the Stanley Cup.  The results of our simulations are shown at the very bottom of today’s Playoff Report.  They were calculated based on the results of the first-round playoff series.  Colorado continues to be the favourite to win it all, at 36.0%.  We’ve calculated the chances of a Canadian team winning the Cup to be 8.3% (Winnipeg 6.2%, Montreal 2.3%).

Of course, while I was away, Toronto continued their streak of futility, losing yet another playoff series.  After Game 4, when Toronto was leading the series 3-1, we gave them a 95% chance of winning the series.  But, as every Strat-O-Matic player knows, sometimes you roll a 20, so nothing is a sure thing.  I chalk it up to a failure in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings model; we don’t take into account the Curse of Harold Ballard!

But on to last night’s games.  Two exciting games last night, but both ended a little unsatisfying.  In the first game, Montreal travelled to Winnipeg to open the North Division Final.  Montreal was up 4-2 with just a couple of minutes left in the game, so Winnipeg pulled their goalie.  It paid off, as Kyle Connor scored for Winnipeg with 1:42 left in the game to narrow the score to 4-3.  They had plenty of pressure, so it looked to be an exciting finish, but Montreal got the puck and took a long shot which missed the empty net, but Jake Evans reached the puck first and swept it around to give Montreal a 5-3 lead with 57 seconds left.  But, Mark Scheifele, rushing back to try to stop the goal, charged Evans and flattened him after the goal was scored.  It was a vicious hit after the goal, and Scheifele was given a boarding major, a game misconduct, and will likely face a suspension.  Evans appeared to be unconscious after the hit, and was taken off the ice in a stretcher, but seemed to be moving his hands, so we’re hoping he’ll be alright.

In the late game, the second game of the West Division final was played in Colorado, with Colorado having a 1-0 lead over Vegas.  The first game of the series was a blowout, 7-1 for Colorado, but this was a much closer game, with Vegas dominating for much of the game.  The game ended regulation time 2-2, and went into overtime.  There was a rare overtime penalty call 44 seconds in, as Reilly Smith slashed the stick out of the hands of Mikko Rantanen.  Vegas didn’t agree with the call, but whether it was a good penalty or whether Rantanen dropped his stick is hard to say, but the call stood.  On the ensuing powerplay, Rantanen scored to give Colorado the 3-2 victory.

There are two games tonight.  In the first, Boston travels to the Nassau County Coliseum to face the New York Islanders in the second game of the East Division Final.  The series is tied, and we’re giving Boston a 56.2% chance of winning the series.  In the second game, Carolina visits Tampa Bay, down 2-0 in the series.  We’re giving Tampa Bay an 82.7% chance of winning that series.

Yesterday’s Games

North Division Final

Montreal 5 at Winnipeg 3

• Montreal leads series 1-0
• Montreal now has a 59.3% chance of winning the series, up from 38.2%

Series schedule:

• June 2: Montreal 5 at Winnipeg 3
• June 4: Montreal at Winnipeg
• June 6: Winnipeg at Montreal
• June 7: Winnipeg at Montreal
• June 9: Montreat at Winnipeg (if necessary)
• June 11: Winnipeg at Montreal (if necessary)
• June 13 Montreal at Winnipeg (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Winnipeg has a 40.7% chance of winning (▼21.1)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼11.2)
  • In 5 games: 9.3% (▼9.7)
  • In 6 games: 13.7% (▼1.9)
  • In 7 games: 17.7% (▲1.6)
• Montreal has a 59.3% chance of winning (▲21.1)
  • In 7 games: 11.8% (▲0.9)
  • In 6 games: 18.4% (▲5.1)
  • In 5 games: 15.5% (▲6.8)
  • In 4 games: 13.6% (▲8.3)

West Division Final

Vegas 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)

• Colorado leads series 2-0
• Colorado now has an 89.3% chance of winning, up from 79.0%

Series schedule:

• May 30: Vegas 1 at Colorado 7
• June 2: Vegas 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
• June 4: Colorado at Vegas
• June 6: Colorado at Vegas
• June 8: Vegas at Colorado (if necessary)
• June 10: Colorado at Vegas (if necessary)
• June 12: Vegas at Colorado (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Colorado has a 89.3% chance of winning (▲10.3)
  • In 4 games: 32.4% (▲11.3)
  • In 5 games: 30.9% (▲4.6)
  • In 6 games: 15.1% (▼2.0)
  • In 7 games: 10.9% (▼3.6)
• Vegas has a 10.7% chance of winning (▼10.3)
  • In 7 games: 6.7% (▼2.2)
  • In 6 games: 4.0% (▼4.5)
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼3.6)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Games

East Division Final

Boston at New York Islanders

• Series tied 1-1
• Boston has a 56.2% chance of winning the series

Central Division Final

Carolina at Tampa Bay

• Tampa Bay leads series 2-0
• Tampa Bay has an 82.7% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups – Division Finals

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Tampa Bay leads series 2-0

Chances of winning: Carolina 17%, Tampa Bay 83%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Carolina: 1572, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1554, 6th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Carolina: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Tampa Bay: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last round:

• Carolina: Defeated Nashville in 6 games
• Tampa Bay: Defeated Florida in 6 games

Series schedule:

• May 30: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
• June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
• June 3: Carolina at Tampa Bay
• June 5: Carolina at Tampa Bay
• June 8: Tampa Bay at Carolina (if necessary)
• June 10: Carolina at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 12: Tampa Bay at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Carolina has a 17.3% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 5.4%
  • In 7 games: 11.9%
• Tampa Bay has a 82.7% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 8.5%
  • In 6 games: 18.2%
  • In 5 games: 21.3%
  • In 4 games: 34.7%

East Division

Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Series tied 1-1

Chances of winning: Boston 56%, New York Islanders 44%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Boston: 1582, 2nd overall
• New York Islanders: 1543, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Boston: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• New York Islanders: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win

Last round:

• Boston: Defeated Washington in 5 games
• New York Islanders: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games

Series schedule:

• May 29: New York Islanders 2 at Boston 5
• May 31: New York Islanders 4 at Boston 3 (OT)
• June 3: Boston at New York Islanders
• June 5: Boston at New York Islanders
• June 7: New York Islanders at Boston
• June 9: Boston at New York Islanders (if necessary)
• June 11: New York Islanders at Boston (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Boston has a 56.2% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 16.0%
  • In 6 games: 19.3%
  • In 7 games: 20.9%
• New York Islanders has a 43.8% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 13.7%
  • In 6 games: 18.2%
  • In 5 games: 11.9%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts)

Colorado leads series 2-0

Chances of winning: Colorado 89%, Vegas 11%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1638, 1st overall
• Vegas: 1578, 3rd overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Colorado: 4 regulation wins
• Vegas: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last round:

• Colorado: Defeated St. Louis in 4 games
• Vegas: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 30: Vegas 1 at Colorado 7
• June 2: Vegas 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
• June 4: Colorado at Vegas
• June 6: Colorado at Vegas
• June 8: Vegas at Colorado (if necessary)
• June 10: Colorado at Vegas (if necessary)
• June 12: Vegas at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 89.3% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 32.5%
  • In 5 games: 30.9%
  • In 6 games: 15.2%
  • In 7 games: 10.8%
• Vegas has a 10.7% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 6.7%
  • In 6 games: 4.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

North Division

Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Montreal leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Winnipeg 41%, Montreal 59%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Winnipeg: 1526, 7th overall
• Montreal: 1489, 8th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

• Winnipeg: 3 regulation wins, 3 overtime wins
• Montreal: 3 regulation wins

Last round:

• Winnipeg: Defeated Edmonton in 4 games
• Montreal: Defeated Toronto in 7 games

Series schedule:

• June 2: Montreal 5 at Winnipeg 3
• June 4: Montreal at Winnipeg
• June 6: Winnipeg at Montreal
• June 7: Winnipeg at Montreal
• June 9: Montreat at Winnipeg (if necessary)
• June 11: Winnipeg at Montreal (if necessary)
• June 13 Montreal at Winnipeg (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Winnipeg has a 40.7% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 9.3%
  • In 6 games: 13.7%
  • In 7 games: 17.7%
• Montreal has a 59.3% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 11.8%
  • In 6 games: 18.4%
  • In 5 games: 15.5%
  • In 4 games: 13.6%

Playoff Matchups – Round 1

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Nashville (4th in Central, 64 pts)

Carolina wins series 4-2

McDonald NHL Power Ratings: 

• Carolina: 1565, 5th overall
• Nashville: 1506, 15th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Carolina: 5 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Nashville: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Carolina: 5-2-3
• Nashville: 7-2-1

Series schedule:

• May 17: Nashville 2 at Carolina 5
• May 19: Nashville 0 at Carolina 3
• May 21: Carolina 4 at Nashville 5 (2OT)
• May 23: Carolina 3 at Nashville 4 (2OT)
• May 25: Nashville 2 at Carolina 3 (OT)
• May 27: Carolina 4 at Nashville 3 (OT)

Florida (2nd in Central, 79 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Tampa Bay wins series 4-2

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Florida: 1553, 8th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1539, 11th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Florida: 5 regulation wins
• Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Florida: 8-2-0
• Tampa Bay: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

• May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
• May 18: Tampa Bay 3 at Florida 1
• May 20: Florida 6 at Tampa Bay 5 (OT)
• May 22: Florida 2 at Tampa Bay 6
• May 24: Tampa Bay 1 at Florida 4
• May 26: Florida 0 at Tampa Bay 4

East Division

Pittsburgh (1st in East, 77 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

New York Islanders win series 4-2

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Pittsburgh: 1575, 2nd overall
• NY Islanders: 1523, 12th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Pittsburgh: 4 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• New York Islanders: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Pittsburgh: 8-2-0
• New York Islanders: 3-4-3

Series schedule:

• May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
• May 18: New York Islanders 1 at Pittsburgh 2
• May 20: Pittsburgh 5 at New York Islanders 4
• May 22: Pittsburgh 1 at New York Islanders 4
• May 24: New York Islanders 3 at Pittsburgh 2 (2OT)
• May 26: Pittsburgh 3 at New York Islanders 5

Washington (2nd in East, 77 pts) vs. Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts)

Boston wins series 4-1

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Washington: 1572, 4th overall
• Boston: 1557, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Washington: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• Boston: 4 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Washington: 7-2-1
• Boston: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

• May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 17: Boston 4 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 19: Washington 2 at Boston 3 (2OT)
• May 21: Washington 1 at Boston 4
• May 23: Boston 3 at Washington 1

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. St. Louis (4th in West, 63 pts)

Colorado wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1616, 1st overall
• St. Louis: 1517, 13th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Colorado: 5 regulation wins
• St. Louis: 3 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Colorado: 8-2-0
• St. Louis: 6-1-3

Series schedule:

• May 17: St. Louis 1 at Colorado 4
• May 19: St. Louis 3 at Colorado 6
• May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 1
• May 23: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 2

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Minnesota (3rd in West, 75 pts)

Vegas wins series 4-3

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1575, 2nd overall
• Minnesota: 1550, 9th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Vegas: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins
• Minnesota: 4 regulation wins, 1 shootout win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Vegas: 7-3-0
• Minnesota: 5-3-2

Series schedule:

• May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
• May 18: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 3
• May 20: Vegas 5 at Minnesota 2
• May 22: Vegas 4 at Minnesota 0
• May 24: Minnesota 4 at Vegas 2
• May 26: Vegas 0 at Minnesota 3
• May 28: Minnesota 2 at Vegas 6

North Division

Toronto (1st in North, 77 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Montreal wins series 4-3

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Toronto: 1560, 6th overall
• Montreal: 1467, 21st overall

Head-to-head this year (10 games):

• Toronto: 6 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Montreal: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Toronto: 7-1-2
• Montreal: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

• May 20: Montreal 3 at Toronto 2
• May 22: Montreal 1 at Toronto 5
• May 24: Toronto 2 at Montreal 1
• May 25: Toronto 4 at Montreal 0
• May 27: Montreal 4 at Toronto 3 (OT)
• May 29: Toronto 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)
• May 31: Montreal 3 at Toronto 1

Edmonton (2nd in North, 72 pts) vs. Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts)

Winnipeg wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Edmonton: 1548, 10th overall
• Winnipeg: 1494, 17th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

• Edmonton: 7 regulation wins
• Winnipeg: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Edmonton: 7-3-0
• Winnipeg: 3-7-0

Series schedule:

• May 19: Winnipeg 4 at Edmonton 1
• May 21: Winnipeg 1 at Edmonton 0 (OT)
• May 23: Edmonton 4 at Winnipeg 5 (OT)
• May 24: Edmonton 3 at Winnipeg 4 (3OT)

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the division finals started.

 1       Colorado Avalanche            36.0%
 2       Boston Bruins                 15.0%
 3       Carolina Hurricanes           13.0%
 4       Vegas Golden Knights          12.5%
 5       Tampa Bay Lightning           8.7%
 6       New York Islanders            6.3%
 7       Winnipeg Jets                 6.2%
 8       Montreal Canadiens            2.3%

 

Ah, Saturday night, Hockey Night in Canada, Toronto vs. Montreal.  Always a good game!  And tonight was no exception.  Down 3-2 in the series but playing at home before spectators for the first time this season, the Canadiens came out playing hard.  After two periods, the game was still scoreless, but then Montreal scored two power-play goals early in the period to take the lead.  But, facing the prospect of heading to a Game 7, Toronto scored two of their own with less than 5 minutes to play.  The score remained knotted at 2 and headed to overtime.  Toronto put the pressure on Montreal, outshooting them 15-2, but it was Jesperi Kotkaniemi scoring for Montreal at 15:15 of the overtime period.  The teams now head to Toronto on Monday for Game 7.  We still have Toronto as the favourite, with a 65.0% chance of winning the series, which would be their first playoff series win in 17 years.

In the other game, the 2nd round of the playoffs opened with the New York Islanders visiting Boston for the first game of the East Division finals.  Boston outplayed New York, and outshot them 40-22, but the game was tied at 2 after the second period.  But, Boston scored early in the third, and again on David Pastrnak’s 3rd goal of the game 14:10 into the 3rd to make it 4-2.  Boston also scored an empty-netter to finish the scoring for the night.  We’re favouring Boston to win this series, and after this first game victory, we’ve calculated their chances at 75.6%.

There are two games tonight, both opening their series.  In the early game, Tampa Bay visits Carolina to start the Central Division Final.  We’re giving Carolina a narrow 56.4% chance of winning the series.  In the second game, Colorado hosts Vegas to kick off the West Division final.  We expect Colorado, the top-ranked team in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings, to win this series, with them winning 67.3% of the time in our simulations.

I likely won’t be generating these Playoff Reports for the next few days, as I’ll be out of town and away from the computer.  Look for the next report on Wednesday or Thursday!

Yesterday’s Games

North Division, 1 vs. 4

Toronto 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)

• Series tied 3-3
• Toronto now has 65.0% chance of winning the series, down from 85.0%

Series schedule:

• May 20: Montreal 3 at Toronto 2
• May 22: Montreal 1 at Toronto 5
• May 24: Toronto 2 at Montreal 1
• May 25: Toronto 4 at Montreal 0
• May 27: Montreal 4 at Toronto 3 (OT)
• May 29: Toronto 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)
• May 31: Montreal at Toronto

New simulation results:

• Toronto has a 65.0% chance of winning (▼20.0)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0% (▼57.0)
  • In 7 games: 65.0% (▲37.0)
• Montreal has a 35.0% chance of winning (▲20.0)
  • In 7 games: 35.0% (▲20.0)
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

East Division Final

New York Islanders 2 at Boston 5

• Boston leads series 1-0
• Boston now has a 75.6% chance of winning the series, up from 62.3%

Series schedule:

• May 29: New York Islanders 2 at Boston 5
• May 31: New York Islanders at Boston
• TBD: Boston at New York Islanders
• TBD: Boston at New York Islanders
• TBD: New York Islanders at Boston (if necessary)
• TBD: Boston at New York Islanders (if necessary)
• TBD: New York Islanders at Boston (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Boston has a 75.6% chance of winning (▲13.3)
  • In 4 games: 18.3% (▲7.1)
  • In 5 games: 25.2% (▲6.2)
  • In 6 games: 16.9% (▲1.1)
  • In 7 games: 15.2% (▼1.0)
• New York Islanders has a 24.4% chance of winning (▼13.3)
  • In 7 games: 10.1% (▼0.7)
  • In 6 games: 9.9% (▼3.3)
  • In 5 games: 4.4% (▼4.3)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼5.0)

Today’s Games

Central Division Final

Tampa Bay at Carolina

• Series tied 0-0
• Carolina has a 56.4% chance of winning the series

West Division Final

Vegas at Colorado

• Series tied 0-0
• Colorado has a 67.3% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups – Round 1

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Nashville (4th in Central, 64 pts)

Carolina wins series 4-2

McDonald NHL Power Ratings: 

• Carolina: 1565, 5th overall
• Nashville: 1506, 15th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Carolina: 5 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Nashville: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Carolina: 5-2-3
• Nashville: 7-2-1

Series schedule:

• May 17: Nashville 2 at Carolina 5
• May 19: Nashville 0 at Carolina 3
• May 21: Carolina 4 at Nashville 5 (2OT)
• May 23: Carolina 3 at Nashville 4 (2OT)
• May 25: Nashville 2 at Carolina 3 (OT)
• May 27: Carolina 4 at Nashville 3 (OT)

Florida (2nd in Central, 79 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Tampa Bay wins series 4-2

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Florida: 1553, 8th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1539, 11th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Florida: 5 regulation wins
• Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Florida: 8-2-0
• Tampa Bay: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

• May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
• May 18: Tampa Bay 3 at Florida 1
• May 20: Florida 6 at Tampa Bay 5 (OT)
• May 22: Florida 2 at Tampa Bay 6
• May 24: Tampa Bay 1 at Florida 4
• May 26: Florida 0 at Tampa Bay 4

East Division

Pittsburgh (1st in East, 77 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

New York Islanders win series 4-2

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Pittsburgh: 1575, 2nd overall
• NY Islanders: 1523, 12th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Pittsburgh: 4 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• New York Islanders: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Pittsburgh: 8-2-0
• New York Islanders: 3-4-3

Series schedule:

• May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
• May 18: New York Islanders 1 at Pittsburgh 2
• May 20: Pittsburgh 5 at New York Islanders 4
• May 22: Pittsburgh 1 at New York Islanders 4
• May 24: New York Islanders 3 at Pittsburgh 2 (2OT)
• May 26: Pittsburgh 3 at New York Islanders 5

Washington (2nd in East, 77 pts) vs. Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts)

Boston wins series 4-1

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Washington: 1572, 4th overall
• Boston: 1557, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Washington: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• Boston: 4 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Washington: 7-2-1
• Boston: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

• May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 17: Boston 4 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 19: Washington 2 at Boston 3 (2OT)
• May 21: Washington 1 at Boston 4
• May 23: Boston 3 at Washington 1

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. St. Louis (4th in West, 63 pts)

Colorado wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1616, 1st overall
• St. Louis: 1517, 13th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Colorado: 5 regulation wins
• St. Louis: 3 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Colorado: 8-2-0
• St. Louis: 6-1-3

Series schedule:

• May 17: St. Louis 1 at Colorado 4
• May 19: St. Louis 3 at Colorado 6
• May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 1
• May 23: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 2

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Minnesota (3rd in West, 75 pts)

Vegas wins series 4-3

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1575, 2nd overall
• Minnesota: 1550, 9th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Vegas: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins
• Minnesota: 4 regulation wins, 1 shootout win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Vegas: 7-3-0
• Minnesota: 5-3-2

Series schedule:

• May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
• May 18: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 3
• May 20: Vegas 5 at Minnesota 2
• May 22: Vegas 4 at Minnesota 0
• May 24: Minnesota 4 at Vegas 2
• May 26: Vegas 0 at Minnesota 3
• May 28: Minnesota 2 at Vegas 6

North Division

Toronto (1st in North, 77 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Series tied 3-3

Chances of winning: Toronto 65%, Montreal 35%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Toronto: 1560, 6th overall
• Montreal: 1467, 21st overall

Head-to-head this year (10 games):

• Toronto: 6 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Montreal: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Toronto: 7-1-2
• Montreal: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

• May 20: Montreal 3 at Toronto 2
• May 22: Montreal 1 at Toronto 5
• May 24: Toronto 2 at Montreal 1
• May 25: Toronto 4 at Montreal 0
• May 27: Montreal 4 at Toronto 3 (OT)
• May 29: Toronto 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)
• May 31: Montreal at Toronto

Simulation results:

• Toronto has a 65.0% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 7 games: 65.0%
• Montreal has a 35.0% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 35.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Edmonton (2nd in North, 72 pts) vs. Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts)

Winnipeg wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Edmonton: 1548, 10th overall
• Winnipeg: 1494, 17th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

• Edmonton: 7 regulation wins
• Winnipeg: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Edmonton: 7-3-0
• Winnipeg: 3-7-0

Series schedule:

• May 19: Winnipeg 4 at Edmonton 1
• May 21: Winnipeg 1 at Edmonton 0 (OT)
• May 23: Edmonton 4 at Winnipeg 5 (OT)
• May 24: Edmonton 3 at Winnipeg 4 (3OT)

Playoff Matchups – Division Finals

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Series tied 0-0

Chances of winning: Carolina 56%, Tampa Bay 44%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Carolina: 1572, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1554, 6th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Carolina: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Tampa Bay: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last round:

• Carolina: Defeated Nashville in 6 games
• Tampa Bay: Defeated Florida in 6 games

Series schedule:

• May 30: Tampa Bay at Carolina
• TBD: Tampa Bay at Carolina
• TBD: Carolina at Tampa Bay
• TBD: Carolina at Tampa Bay
• TBD: Tampa Bay at Carolina (if necessary)
• TBD: Carolina at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• TBD: Tampa Bay at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Carolina has a 56.4% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 9.1%
  • In 5 games: 16.8%
  • In 6 games: 14.7%
  • In 7 games: 15.9%
• Tampa Bay has a 43.6% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 11.8%
  • In 6 games: 14.9%
  • In 5 games: 10.5%
  • In 4 games: 6.4%

East Division

Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Boston leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Boston 76%, New York Islanders 24%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Boston: 1582, 2nd overall
• New York Islanders: 1543, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Boston: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• New York Islanders: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win

Last round:

• Boston: Defeated Washington in 5 games
• New York Islanders: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games

Series schedule:

• May 29: New York Islanders 2 at Boston 5
• May 31: New York Islanders at Boston
• TBD: Boston at New York Islanders
• TBD: Boston at New York Islanders
• TBD: New York Islanders at Boston (if necessary)
• TBD: Boston at New York Islanders (if necessary)
• TBD: New York Islanders at Boston (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Boston has a 75.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 18.3%
  • In 5 games: 25.2%
  • In 6 games: 16.9%
  • In 7 games: 15.2%
• New York Islanders has a 24.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 10.1%
  • In 6 games: 9.9%
  • In 5 games: 4.4%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts)

Series tied 0-0

Chances of winning: Colorado 67%, Vegas 33%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1638, 1st overall
• Vegas: 1578, 3rd overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Colorado: 4 regulation wins
• Vegas: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last round:

• Colorado: Defeated St. Louis in 4 games
• Vegas: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 30: Vegas at Colorado
• TBD: Vegas at Colorado
• TBD: Colorado at Vegas
• TBD: Colorado at Vegas
• TBD: Vegas at Colorado (if necessary)
• TBD: Colorado at Vegas (if necessary)
• TBD: Vegas at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 67.3% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 13.5%
  • In 5 games: 21.0%
  • In 6 games: 16.7%
  • In 7 games: 16.1%
• Vegas has a 32.7% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 9.8%
  • In 6 games: 11.6%
  • In 5 games: 7.2%
  • In 4 games: 4.1%

North Division

Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts) vs. TBD

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the first-round playoffs started.  They will be recalculated once the first round is completed.

 1       Colorado Avalanche            21.4%
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins           9.6%
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           9.2%
 4       Carolina Hurricanes           9.0%
 5       Vegas Golden Knights          9.0%
 6       Washington Capitals           8.0%
 7       Florida Panthers              6.5%
 8       Edmonton Oilers               6.1%
 9       Boston Bruins                 5.4%
10       Minnesota Wild                4.3%
11       Tampa Bay Lightning           4.1%
12       New York Islanders            2.2%
13       Nashville Predators           1.7%
14       St. Louis Blues               1.6%
15       Winnipeg Jets                 1.3%
16       Montreal Canadiens            0.7%

 

There was just one game tonight in the NHL playoffs: Game 7 of the Vegas / Minnesota series.  Vegas won the game, 6-2, behind Mattias Janmark’s hat trick, one of which was an empty-netter.  The game was tied 2-2 in the 2nd period, but Vegas pulled away with 2 more goals in the 2nd and 2 more in the 3rd to finish off the series.  Vegas will play McDonald NHL Power Ratings top-ranked Colorado in the West Division final.

There are two games tomorrow night.  In the first game, Toronto travels to Montreal with a 3-2 series lead.  Montreal hopes that having a home crowd helps them, as this is the first North Division game to allow fans in the stands.  We’re giving Toronto a 57.0% chance of winning tomorrow, and an 85.0% chance of winning the series.

In the second game of the night, the 2nd round of the playoffs open, with Boston hosting the New York Islanders in the first game of the East Division Final.  We’re favouring Boston in this series, as the gang at McDonald NHL Power Ratings has calculated that they’ve got a 62.3% chance of winning the series.

We haven’t yet published the current team rankings, nor the team chances of winning the Stanley Cup, as we’re waiting for the first round of the playoffs to finish before doing that.  But, we’ve updated our report to include the Playoff Matchups for the Division Finals.  Enjoy!

Yesterday’s Games

West Division, 2 vs. 3

Minnesota 2 at Vegas 6

• Vegas wins series 4-3

Series schedule:

• May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
• May 18: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 3
• May 20: Vegas 5 at Minnesota 2
• May 22: Vegas 4 at Minnesota 0
• May 24: Minnesota 4 at Vegas 2
• May 26: Vegas 0 at Minnesota 3
• May 28: Minnesota 2 at Vegas 6

Today’s Games

North Division, 1 vs. 4

Toronto at Montreal

• Toronto leads series 3-2
• Toronto has an 85.0% chance of winning the series

East Division Final

New York Islanders at Boston

• Series tied 0-0
• Boston has a 62.3% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups – Round 1

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Nashville (4th in Central, 64 pts)

Carolina wins series 4-2

McDonald NHL Power Ratings: 

• Carolina: 1565, 5th overall
• Nashville: 1506, 15th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Carolina: 5 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Nashville: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Carolina: 5-2-3
• Nashville: 7-2-1

Series schedule:

• May 17: Nashville 2 at Carolina 5
• May 19: Nashville 0 at Carolina 3
• May 21: Carolina 4 at Nashville 5 (2OT)
• May 23: Carolina 3 at Nashville 4 (2OT)
• May 25: Nashville 2 at Carolina 3 (OT)
• May 27: Carolina 4 at Nashville 3 (OT)

Florida (2nd in Central, 79 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Tampa Bay wins series 4-2

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Florida: 1553, 8th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1539, 11th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Florida: 5 regulation wins
• Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Florida: 8-2-0
• Tampa Bay: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

• May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
• May 18: Tampa Bay 3 at Florida 1
• May 20: Florida 6 at Tampa Bay 5 (OT)
• May 22: Florida 2 at Tampa Bay 6
• May 24: Tampa Bay 1 at Florida 4
• May 26: Florida 0 at Tampa Bay 4

East Division

Pittsburgh (1st in East, 77 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

New York Islanders win series 4-2

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Pittsburgh: 1575, 2nd overall
• NY Islanders: 1523, 12th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Pittsburgh: 4 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• New York Islanders: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Pittsburgh: 8-2-0
• New York Islanders: 3-4-3

Series schedule:

• May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
• May 18: New York Islanders 1 at Pittsburgh 2
• May 20: Pittsburgh 5 at New York Islanders 4
• May 22: Pittsburgh 1 at New York Islanders 4
• May 24: New York Islanders 3 at Pittsburgh 2 (2OT)
• May 26: Pittsburgh 3 at New York Islanders 5

Washington (2nd in East, 77 pts) vs. Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts)

Boston wins series 4-1

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Washington: 1572, 4th overall
• Boston: 1557, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Washington: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• Boston: 4 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Washington: 7-2-1
• Boston: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

• May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 17: Boston 4 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 19: Washington 2 at Boston 3 (2OT)
• May 21: Washington 1 at Boston 4
• May 23: Boston 3 at Washington 1

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. St. Louis (4th in West, 63 pts)

Colorado wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1616, 1st overall
• St. Louis: 1517, 13th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Colorado: 5 regulation wins
• St. Louis: 3 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Colorado: 8-2-0
• St. Louis: 6-1-3

Series schedule:

• May 17: St. Louis 1 at Colorado 4
• May 19: St. Louis 3 at Colorado 6
• May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 1
• May 23: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 2

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Minnesota (3rd in West, 75 pts)

Vegas wins series 4-3

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1575, 2nd overall
• Minnesota: 1550, 9th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Vegas: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins
• Minnesota: 4 regulation wins, 1 shootout win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Vegas: 7-3-0
• Minnesota: 5-3-2

Series schedule:

• May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
• May 18: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 3
• May 20: Vegas 5 at Minnesota 2
• May 22: Vegas 4 at Minnesota 0
• May 24: Minnesota 4 at Vegas 2
• May 26: Vegas 0 at Minnesota 3
• May 28: Minnesota 2 at Vegas 6

North Division

Toronto (1st in North, 77 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Toronto leads series 3-2

Chances of winning: Toronto 85%, Montreal 15%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Toronto: 1560, 6th overall
• Montreal: 1467, 21st overall

Head-to-head this year (10 games):

• Toronto: 6 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Montreal: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Toronto: 7-1-2
• Montreal: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

• May 20: Montreal 3 at Toronto 2
• May 22: Montreal 1 at Toronto 5
• May 24: Toronto 2 at Montreal 1
• May 25: Toronto 4 at Montreal 0
• May 27: Montreal 4 at Toronto 3 (OT)
• May 29: Toronto at Montreal
• May 31: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Toronto has a 85.0% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 57.0%
  • In 7 games: 28.0%
• Montreal has a 15.0% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 15.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Edmonton (2nd in North, 72 pts) vs. Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts)

Winnipeg wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Edmonton: 1548, 10th overall
• Winnipeg: 1494, 17th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

• Edmonton: 7 regulation wins
• Winnipeg: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Edmonton: 7-3-0
• Winnipeg: 3-7-0

Series schedule:

• May 19: Winnipeg 4 at Edmonton 1
• May 21: Winnipeg 1 at Edmonton 0 (OT)
• May 23: Edmonton 4 at Winnipeg 5 (OT)
• May 24: Edmonton 3 at Winnipeg 4 (3OT)

Playoff Matchups – Division Finals

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Series tied 0-0

Chances of winning: Carolina 56%, Tampa Bay 44%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Carolina: 1572, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1554, 6th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Carolina: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Tampa Bay: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last round:

• Carolina: Defeated Nashville in 6 games
• Tampa Bay: Defeated Florida in 6 games

Series schedule:

• May 30: Tampa Bay at Carolina
• TBD: Tampa Bay at Carolina
• TBD: Carolina at Tampa Bay
• TBD: Carolina at Tampa Bay
• TBD: Tampa Bay at Carolina (if necessary)
• TBD: Carolina at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• TBD: Tampa Bay at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Carolina has a 56.4% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 9.1%
  • In 5 games: 16.8%
  • In 6 games: 14.7%
  • In 7 games: 15.9%
• Tampa Bay has a 43.6% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 11.8%
  • In 6 games: 14.9%
  • In 5 games: 10.5%
  • In 4 games: 6.4%

East Division

Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Series tied 0-0

Chances of winning: Boston 62%, New York Islanders 38%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Boston: 1582, 2nd overall
• New York Islanders: 1543, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Boston: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• New York Islanders: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win

Last round:

• Boston: Defeated Washington in 5 games
• New York Islanders: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games

Series schedule:

• May 29: New York Islanders at Boston
• TBD: New York Islanders at Boston
• TBD: Boston at New York Islanders
• TBD: Boston at New York Islanders
• TBD: New York Islanders at Boston (if necessary)
• TBD: Boston at New York Islanders (if necessary)
• TBD: New York Islanders at Boston (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Boston has a 62.3% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 11.2%
  • In 5 games: 19.0%
  • In 6 games: 15.8%
  • In 7 games: 16.2%
• New York Islanders has a 37.7% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 10.8%
  • In 6 games: 13.2%
  • In 5 games: 8.7%
  • In 4 games: 5.0%

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts)

Series tied 0-0

Chances of winning: Colorado 67%, Vegas 33%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1638, 1st overall
• Vegas: 1578, 3rd overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Colorado: 4 regulation wins
• Vegas: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last round:

• Colorado: Defeated St. Louis in 4 games
• Vegas: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games

Series schedule:

• May 30: Vegas at Colorado
• TBD: Vegas at Colorado
• TBD: Colorado at Vegas
• TBD: Colorado at Vegas
• TBD: Vegas at Colorado (if necessary)
• TBD: Colorado at Vegas (if necessary)
• TBD: Vegas at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 67.3% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 13.5%
  • In 5 games: 21.0%
  • In 6 games: 16.7%
  • In 7 games: 16.1%
• Vegas has a 32.7% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 9.8%
  • In 6 games: 11.6%
  • In 5 games: 7.2%
  • In 4 games: 4.1%

North Division

Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts) vs. TBD

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the first-round playoffs started.  They will be recalculated once the first round is completed.

 1       Colorado Avalanche            21.4%
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins           9.6%
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           9.2%
 4       Carolina Hurricanes           9.0%
 5       Vegas Golden Knights          9.0%
 6       Washington Capitals           8.0%
 7       Florida Panthers              6.5%
 8       Edmonton Oilers               6.1%
 9       Boston Bruins                 5.4%
10       Minnesota Wild                4.3%
11       Tampa Bay Lightning           4.1%
12       New York Islanders            2.2%
13       Nashville Predators           1.7%
14       St. Louis Blues               1.6%
15       Winnipeg Jets                 1.3%
16       Montreal Canadiens            0.7%

 

There were two possible elimination games last night, and both went to overtime.  One team stayed alive, and one team finished off their series.

In the first game of the night, Montreal and Toronto went to overtime after Jake Muzzin scored twice in the 3rd period for Toronto to tie the game up at 3-3 after regulation.  Joel Armia scored twice quickly for Montreal to start the game, and they took a 3-0 lead in the second period, but Toronto came back to send it to overtime.  The game was over quickly, though, as Nick Suzuki scored 59 seconds into overtime to keep Montreal alive.  The teams head to Montreal on Saturday (another Toronto-Montreal Saturday night Hockey Night In Canada game!), with Toronto leading the series 3-2.  As Quebec is starting to ease COVID restrictions, 2500 fans will be allowed in the Bell Centre, the first North Division game to allow fans.

The late game also went into overtime.  Nashville, playing at home down 3-2 in the series, lead the game 3-1 in the second period, but Carolina came back and tied it with a Dougie Hamilton goal with 6:01 left in the 3rd.  Neither team could score in the rest of regulation time, but Carolina finished it 1:16 into overtime as Sebastian Aho scored his second goal of the game.  This victory won the series for Carolina, who will face Tampa Bay in the West Division final.

There is just one game tonight, as Minnesota travels to Vegas for the first Game 7 of this year’s playoffs.  We’re giving Vegas a 58.0% chance of winning it.  The winner will face the McDonald NHL Power Ratings top-ranked team Colorado in the West Division final.

The NHL announced yesterday that the Division finals will start tomorrow, with the New York Islanders visiting Boston.  We will update our chances of winning the Stanley Cup after the conclusion of all first-round series.

Yesterday’s Games

North Division, 1 vs. 4

Montreal 4 at Toronto 3 (OT)

• Toronto leads series 3-2
• Toronto now has a 85.0% chance of winning the series, down from 95.5%

Series schedule:

• May 20: Montreal 3 at Toronto 2
• May 22: Montreal 1 at Toronto 5
• May 24: Toronto 2 at Montreal 1
• May 25: Toronto 4 at Montreal 0
• May 27: Montreal 4 at Toronto 3 (OT)
• May 29: Toronto at Montreal
• May 31: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Toronto has a 85.0% chance of winning (▼10.5)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼70.0)
  • In 6 games: 57.0% (▲39.9)
  • In 7 games: 28.0% (▲19.6)
• Montreal has a 15.0% chance of winning (▲10.5)
  • In 7 games: 15.0% (▲10.5)
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Central Division, 1 vs. 4

Carolina 4 at Nashville 3 (OT)

• Carolina wins series 4-2

Series schedule:

• May 17: Nashville 2 at Carolina 5
• May 19: Nashville 0 at Carolina 3
• May 21: Carolina 4 at Nashville 5 (2OT)
• May 23: Carolina 3 at Nashville 4 (2OT)
• May 25: Nashville 2 at Carolina 3 (OT)
• May 27: Carolina 4 at Nashville 3 (OT)

Today’s Games

West Division, 2 vs. 3

Minnesota at Vegas

• Series tied 3-3
• Vegas has a 58.0% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Nashville (4th in Central, 64 pts)

Carolina wins series 4-2

McDonald NHL Power Ratings: 

• Carolina: 1565, 5th overall
• Nashville: 1506, 15th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Carolina: 5 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Nashville: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Carolina: 5-2-3
• Nashville: 7-2-1

Series schedule:

• May 17: Nashville 2 at Carolina 5
• May 19: Nashville 0 at Carolina 3
• May 21: Carolina 4 at Nashville 5 (2OT)
• May 23: Carolina 3 at Nashville 4 (2OT)
• May 25: Nashville 2 at Carolina 3 (OT)
• May 27: Carolina 4 at Nashville 3 (OT)

Florida (2nd in Central, 79 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Tampa Bay wins series 4-2

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Florida: 1553, 8th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1539, 11th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Florida: 5 regulation wins
• Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Florida: 8-2-0
• Tampa Bay: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

• May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
• May 18: Tampa Bay 3 at Florida 1
• May 20: Florida 6 at Tampa Bay 5 (OT)
• May 22: Florida 2 at Tampa Bay 6
• May 24: Tampa Bay 1 at Florida 4
• May 26: Florida 0 at Tampa Bay 4

East Division

Pittsburgh (1st in East, 77 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

New York Islanders win series 4-2

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Pittsburgh: 1575, 2nd overall
• NY Islanders: 1523, 12th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Pittsburgh: 4 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• New York Islanders: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Pittsburgh: 8-2-0
• New York Islanders: 3-4-3

Series schedule:

• May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
• May 18: New York Islanders 1 at Pittsburgh 2
• May 20: Pittsburgh 5 at New York Islanders 4
• May 22: Pittsburgh 1 at New York Islanders 4
• May 24: New York Islanders 3 at Pittsburgh 2 (2OT)
• May 26: Pittsburgh 3 at New York Islanders 5

Washington (2nd in East, 77 pts) vs. Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts)

Boston wins series 4-1

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Washington: 1572, 4th overall
• Boston: 1557, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Washington: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• Boston: 4 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Washington: 7-2-1
• Boston: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

• May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 17: Boston 4 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 19: Washington 2 at Boston 3 (2OT)
• May 21: Washington 1 at Boston 4
• May 23: Boston 3 at Washington 1

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. St. Louis (4th in West, 63 pts)

Colorado wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1616, 1st overall
• St. Louis: 1517, 13th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Colorado: 5 regulation wins
• St. Louis: 3 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Colorado: 8-2-0
• St. Louis: 6-1-3

Series schedule:

• May 17: St. Louis 1 at Colorado 4
• May 19: St. Louis 3 at Colorado 6
• May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 1
• May 23: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 2

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Minnesota (3rd in West, 75 pts)

Series tied 3-3

Chances of winning: Vegas 58%, Minnesota 42%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1575, 2nd overall
• Minnesota: 1550, 9th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Vegas: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins
• Minnesota: 4 regulation wins, 1 shootout win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Vegas: 7-3-0
• Minnesota: 5-3-2

Series schedule:

• May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
• May 18: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 3
• May 20: Vegas 5 at Minnesota 2
• May 22: Vegas 4 at Minnesota 0
• May 24: Minnesota 4 at Vegas 2
• May 26: Vegas 0 at Minnesota 3
• May 28: Minnesota at Vegas

Simulation results:

• Vegas has a 58.0% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 7 games: 58.0%
• Minnesota has a 42.0% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 42.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

North Division

Toronto (1st in North, 77 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Toronto leads series 3-2

Chances of winning: Toronto 85%, Montreal 15%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Toronto: 1560, 6th overall
• Montreal: 1467, 21st overall

Head-to-head this year (10 games):

• Toronto: 6 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Montreal: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Toronto: 7-1-2
• Montreal: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

• May 20: Montreal 3 at Toronto 2
• May 22: Montreal 1 at Toronto 5
• May 24: Toronto 2 at Montreal 1
• May 25: Toronto 4 at Montreal 0
• May 27: Montreal 4 at Toronto 3 (OT)
• May 29: Toronto at Montreal
• May 31: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Toronto has a 85.0% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 57.0%
  • In 7 games: 28.0%
• Montreal has a 15.0% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 15.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Edmonton (2nd in North, 72 pts) vs. Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts)

Winnipeg wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Edmonton: 1548, 10th overall
• Winnipeg: 1494, 17th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

• Edmonton: 7 regulation wins
• Winnipeg: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Edmonton: 7-3-0
• Winnipeg: 3-7-0

Series schedule:

• May 19: Winnipeg 4 at Edmonton 1
• May 21: Winnipeg 1 at Edmonton 0 (OT)
• May 23: Edmonton 4 at Winnipeg 5 (OT)
• May 24: Edmonton 3 at Winnipeg 4 (3OT)

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the first-round playoffs started.

 1       Colorado Avalanche            21.4%
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins           9.6%
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           9.2%
 4       Carolina Hurricanes           9.0%
 5       Vegas Golden Knights          9.0%
 6       Washington Capitals           8.0%
 7       Florida Panthers              6.5%
 8       Edmonton Oilers               6.1%
 9       Boston Bruins                 5.4%
10       Minnesota Wild                4.3%
11       Tampa Bay Lightning           4.1%
12       New York Islanders            2.2%
13       Nashville Predators           1.7%
14       St. Louis Blues               1.6%
15       Winnipeg Jets                 1.3%
16       Montreal Canadiens            0.7%

 

There were three potential elimination games last night.  In the end, only two teams were eliminated, and the other series is going to Game 7.

In the first game, the New York Islanders defeated Pittsburgh 5-3, and so the Islanders won the series 4 games to 2.  Pittsburgh had finished first in the East Division, and had won 8 of the 10 regular season meetings between these two, but anything can happen in the playoffs!  Down 3-2 in the second period, New York scored 3 goals in 2 minutes and 59 seconds to take the lead.  Pittsburgh wasn’t able to come back after that.  The Islanders will face Boston in the East Division finals.

In the next game, Tampa Bay easily handled Florida 4-0, giving them a 4-2 series win.  The defending Stanley Cup champions will face the winner of the Carolina / Nashville series in the Central Division final.

In the late game, Minnesota shut out Vegas 3-0 to even the series at 3 games apiece.  The game was scoreless until the 3rd period, when Minnesota scored 3 unanswered goals.  The turning point came halfway through the period when, with Minnesota up 1-0, Vegas scored to tie it, but the goal was called back because of goaltender interference.  Vegas challenged, but the call was upheld, and Vegas was given a delay of game penalty for the failed challenge.  Then, Minnesota scored on the ensuing powerplay, and Vegas never came back.  Game 7 of the series goes tomorrow night in Vegas.

Two games tonight, both potentially final games of the series.  Montreal visits Toronto, with Toronto holding a 3-1 series lead and a 95.5% chance of winning the series, 70.0% finishing it tonight.  In the nightcap, Carolina travels to Nashville, with Carolina up 3-2 in the series.  We’re giving the Hurricanes an 82.2% chance of winning the series, and a 53.0% chance of winning tonight’s game.

Yesterday’s Games

East Division, 1 vs. 4

Pittsburgh 3 at New York Islanders 5

• New York Islanders win series 4-2

Series schedule:

• May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
• May 18: New York Islanders 1 at Pittsburgh 2
• May 20: Pittsburgh 5 at New York Islanders 4
• May 22: Pittsburgh 1 at New York Islanders 4
• May 24: New York Islanders 3 at Pittsburgh 2 (2OT)
• May 26: Pittsburgh 3 at New York Islanders 5

Central Division, 2 vs. 3

Florida 0 at Tampa Bay 4

• Tampa Bay wins series 4-2

Series schedule:

• May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
• May 18: Tampa Bay 3 at Florida 1
• May 20: Florida 6 at Tampa Bay 5 (OT)
• May 22: Florida 2 at Tampa Bay 6
• May 24: Tampa Bay 1 at Florida 4
• May 26: Florida 0 at Tampa Bay 4

West Division, 2 vs. 3

Vegas 0 at Minnesota 3

• Series tied 3-3
• Vegas now has a 58.0% chance of winning the series, down from 78.5%

Series schedule:

• May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
• May 18: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 3
• May 20: Vegas 5 at Minnesota 2
• May 22: Vegas 4 at Minnesota 0
• May 24: Minnesota 4 at Vegas 2
• May 26: Vegas 0 at Minnesota 3
• May 28: Minnesota at Vegas

New simulation results:

• Vegas has a 58.0% chance of winning (▼20.5)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0% (▼48.9)
  • In 7 games: 58.0% (▲28.4)
• Minnesota has a 42.0% chance of winning (▲20.5)
  • In 7 games: 42.0% (▲20.5)
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Games

North Division, 1 vs. 4

Montreal at Toronto

• Toronto leads series 3-1
• Toronto has a 95.5% chance of winning the series

Central Division, 1 vs. 4

Carolina at Nashville

• Carolina leads series 3-2
• Carolina has an 82.2% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Nashville (4th in Central, 64 pts)

Carolina leads series 3-2

Chances of winning: Carolina 82%, Nashville 18%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings: 

• Carolina: 1565, 5th overall
• Nashville: 1506, 15th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Carolina: 5 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Nashville: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Carolina: 5-2-3
• Nashville: 7-2-1

Series schedule:

• May 17: Nashville 2 at Carolina 5
• May 19: Nashville 0 at Carolina 3
• May 21: Carolina 4 at Nashville 5 (2OT)
• May 23: Carolina 3 at Nashville 4 (2OT)
• May 25: Nashville 2 at Carolina 3 (OT)
• May 27: Carolina at Nashville
• May 29: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Carolina has a 82.2% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 53.0%
  • In 7 games: 29.2%
• Nashville has a 17.8% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 17.8%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Florida (2nd in Central, 79 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Tampa Bay wins series 4-2

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Florida: 1553, 8th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1539, 11th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Florida: 5 regulation wins
• Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Florida: 8-2-0
• Tampa Bay: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

• May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
• May 18: Tampa Bay 3 at Florida 1
• May 20: Florida 6 at Tampa Bay 5 (OT)
• May 22: Florida 2 at Tampa Bay 6
• May 24: Tampa Bay 1 at Florida 4
• May 26: Florida 0 at Tampa Bay 4

East Division

Pittsburgh (1st in East, 77 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

New York Islanders win series 4-2

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Pittsburgh: 1575, 2nd overall
• NY Islanders: 1523, 12th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Pittsburgh: 4 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• New York Islanders: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Pittsburgh: 8-2-0
• New York Islanders: 3-4-3

Series schedule:

• May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
• May 18: New York Islanders 1 at Pittsburgh 2
• May 20: Pittsburgh 5 at New York Islanders 4
• May 22: Pittsburgh 1 at New York Islanders 4
• May 24: New York Islanders 3 at Pittsburgh 2 (2OT)
• May 26: Pittsburgh 3 at New York Islanders 5

Washington (2nd in East, 77 pts) vs. Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts)

Boston wins series 4-1

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Washington: 1572, 4th overall
• Boston: 1557, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Washington: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• Boston: 4 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Washington: 7-2-1
• Boston: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

• May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 17: Boston 4 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 19: Washington 2 at Boston 3 (2OT)
• May 21: Washington 1 at Boston 4
• May 23: Boston 3 at Washington 1

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. St. Louis (4th in West, 63 pts)

Colorado wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1616, 1st overall
• St. Louis: 1517, 13th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Colorado: 5 regulation wins
• St. Louis: 3 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Colorado: 8-2-0
• St. Louis: 6-1-3

Series schedule:

• May 17: St. Louis 1 at Colorado 4
• May 19: St. Louis 3 at Colorado 6
• May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 1
• May 23: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 2

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Minnesota (3rd in West, 75 pts)

Series tied 3-3

Chances of winning: Vegas 58%, Minnesota 42%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1575, 2nd overall
• Minnesota: 1550, 9th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Vegas: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins
• Minnesota: 4 regulation wins, 1 shootout win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Vegas: 7-3-0
• Minnesota: 5-3-2

Series schedule:

• May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
• May 18: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 3
• May 20: Vegas 5 at Minnesota 2
• May 22: Vegas 4 at Minnesota 0
• May 24: Minnesota 4 at Vegas 2
• May 26: Vegas 0 at Minnesota 3
• May 28: Minnesota at Vegas

Simulation results:

• Vegas has a 58.0% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 7 games: 58.0%
• Minnesota has a 42.0% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 42.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

North Division

Toronto (1st in North, 77 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Toronto leads series 3-1

Chances of winning: Toronto 95%, Montreal 5%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Toronto: 1560, 6th overall
• Montreal: 1467, 21st overall

Head-to-head this year (10 games):

• Toronto: 6 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Montreal: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Toronto: 7-1-2
• Montreal: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

• May 20: Montreal 3 at Toronto 2
• May 22: Montreal 1 at Toronto 5
• May 24: Toronto 2 at Montreal 1
• May 25: Toronto 4 at Montreal 0
• May 27: Montreal at Toronto
• May 29: Toronto at Montreal (if necessary)
• May 31: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Toronto has a 95.5% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 70.0%
  • In 6 games: 17.1%
  • In 7 games: 8.4%
• Montreal has a 4.5% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 4.5%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Edmonton (2nd in North, 72 pts) vs. Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts)

Winnipeg wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Edmonton: 1548, 10th overall
• Winnipeg: 1494, 17th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

• Edmonton: 7 regulation wins
• Winnipeg: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Edmonton: 7-3-0
• Winnipeg: 3-7-0

Series schedule:

• May 19: Winnipeg 4 at Edmonton 1
• May 21: Winnipeg 1 at Edmonton 0 (OT)
• May 23: Edmonton 4 at Winnipeg 5 (OT)
• May 24: Edmonton 3 at Winnipeg 4 (3OT)

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the first-round playoffs started.

 1       Colorado Avalanche            21.4%
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins           9.6%
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           9.2%
 4       Carolina Hurricanes           9.0%
 5       Vegas Golden Knights          9.0%
 6       Washington Capitals           8.0%
 7       Florida Panthers              6.5%
 8       Edmonton Oilers               6.1%
 9       Boston Bruins                 5.4%
10       Minnesota Wild                4.3%
11       Tampa Bay Lightning           4.1%
12       New York Islanders            2.2%
13       Nashville Predators           1.7%
14       St. Louis Blues               1.6%
15       Winnipeg Jets                 1.3%
16       Montreal Canadiens            0.7%

 

It was a quieter night in the NHL playoffs last night, with only two games on tap.  In the North Division, in the back end of a back-to-back pair of games, Toronto defeated hometown Montreal, 4-0.  Standouts for Toronto included former Canadien Alex Galchenyuk, who had two nice assists and an empty net goal, and Jack Campbell, who recorded his first career playoff shutout.  Toronto now leads the series 3-1, and we’re giving them a 95.5% chance of winning the series, and a 70.0% chance of winning it in 5 games.

The other game of the night was more exciting, with Nashville and Carolina going to overtime for the third game in a row.  The last two games both went to double overtime, but this one was over quick, 1:44 into the first overtime period, when Jordan Staal batted the puck out of the air on a rebound from Juuse Saros and bounced it past the netminder.  Carolina now takes a 3-2 lead on the road to Nashville, hoping to close out the series Thursday night.  We’re giving Carolina an 82.2% chance of winning the series, and a 53.0% chance of winning it in Game 6.

Tonight’s games could all eliminate a team from the playoffs.  The New York Islanders are at home to Pittsburgh with a 3-2 series lead. We’re giving the Islanders a 70.2% chance of winning the series, and a 52.0% chance of winning in 6.  The second game has Florida visiting Tampa Bay, with Tampa Bay leading that series 3-2.  Tampa Bay is favoured by the gang at McDonald NHL Power Ratings, with a 74.5% chance of winning the series and a 56.0% chance of finishing it tonight.  And in the final game of the evening, Vegas travels to Minnesota, up 3 games to 2.  Vegas is hoping to finish the series on the road, with a 48.9% chance of winning tonight and a 78.5% chance of winning the series.

Yesterday’s Games

North Division, 1 vs. 4

Toronto 4 at Montreal 0

• Toronto leads series 3-1
• Toronto now has a 95.5% chance of winning the series, up from 83.9%

Series schedule:

• May 20: Montreal 3 at Toronto 2
• May 22: Montreal 1 at Toronto 5
• May 24: Toronto 2 at Montreal 1
• May 25: Toronto 4 at Montreal 0
• May 27: Montreal at Toronto
• May 29: Toronto at Montreal (if necessary)
• May 31: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Toronto has a 95.5% chance of winning (▲11.6)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 70.0% (▲29.4)
  • In 6 games: 17.1% (▼8.7)
  • In 7 games: 8.4% (▼9.2)
• Montreal has a 4.5% chance of winning (▼11.6)
  • In 7 games: 4.5% (▼4.9)
  • In 6 games: 0.0% (▼6.7)
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Central Division, 1 vs. 4

Nashville 2 at Carolina 3 (OT)

• Carolina leads series 3-2
• Carolina now has an 82.2% chance of winning the series, up from 62.3%

Series schedule:

• May 17: Nashville 2 at Carolina 5
• May 19: Nashville 0 at Carolina 3
• May 21: Carolina 4 at Nashville 5 (2OT)
• May 23: Carolina 3 at Nashville 4 (2OT)
• May 25: Nashville 2 at Carolina 3 (OT)
• May 27: Carolina at Nashville
• May 29: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Carolina has a 82.2% chance of winning (▲19.9)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 53.0% (▲20.0)
  • In 7 games: 29.2% (▼0.1)
• Nashville has a 17.8% chance of winning (▼19.9)
  • In 7 games: 17.8% (▼0.2)
  • In 6 games: 0.0% (▼19.7)
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Games

East Division, 1 vs. 4

Pittsburgh at New York Islanders

• New York Islanders lead series 3-2
• New York Islanders have a 70.2% chance of winning the series

Central Division, 2 vs. 3

Florida at Tampa Bay

• Tampa Bay leads series 3-2
• Tampa Bay has a 74.5% chance of winning the series

West Division, 2 vs. 3

Vegas at Minnesota

• Vegas leads series 3-2
• Vegas has a 78.5% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Nashville (4th in Central, 64 pts)

Carolina leads series 3-2

Chances of winning: Carolina 82%, Nashville 18%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings: 

• Carolina: 1565, 5th overall
• Nashville: 1506, 15th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Carolina: 5 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Nashville: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Carolina: 5-2-3
• Nashville: 7-2-1

Series schedule:

• May 17: Nashville 2 at Carolina 5
• May 19: Nashville 0 at Carolina 3
• May 21: Carolina 4 at Nashville 5 (2OT)
• May 23: Carolina 3 at Nashville 4 (2OT)
• May 25: Nashville 2 at Carolina 3 (OT)
• May 27: Carolina at Nashville
• May 29: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Carolina has a 82.2% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 53.0%
  • In 7 games: 29.2%
• Nashville has a 17.8% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 17.8%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Florida (2nd in Central, 79 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Tampa Bay leads series 3-2

Chances of winning: Florida 25%, Tampa Bay 75%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Florida: 1553, 8th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1539, 11th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Florida: 5 regulation wins
• Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Florida: 8-2-0
• Tampa Bay: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

• May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
• May 18: Tampa Bay 3 at Florida 1
• May 20: Florida 6 at Tampa Bay 5 (OT)
• May 22: Florida 2 at Tampa Bay 6
• May 24: Tampa Bay 1 at Florida 4
• May 26: Florida at Tampa Bay
• May 28: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Florida has a 25.5% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 7 games: 25.5%
• Tampa Bay has a 74.5% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 18.5%
  • In 6 games: 56.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

East Division

Pittsburgh (1st in East, 77 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

New York Islanders lead series 3-2

Chances of winning: Pittsburgh 30%, New York Islanders 70%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Pittsburgh: 1575, 2nd overall
• NY Islanders: 1523, 12th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Pittsburgh: 4 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• New York Islanders: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Pittsburgh: 8-2-0
• New York Islanders: 3-4-3

Series schedule:

• May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
• May 18: New York Islanders 1 at Pittsburgh 2
• May 20: Pittsburgh 5 at New York Islanders 4
• May 22: Pittsburgh 1 at New York Islanders 4
• May 24: New York Islanders 3 at Pittsburgh 2 (2OT)
• May 26: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
• May 28: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Pittsburgh has a 29.8% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 7 games: 29.8%
• NY Islanders has a 70.2% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 18.3%
  • In 6 games: 52.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Washington (2nd in East, 77 pts) vs. Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts)

Boston wins series 4-1

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Washington: 1572, 4th overall
• Boston: 1557, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Washington: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• Boston: 4 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Washington: 7-2-1
• Boston: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

• May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 17: Boston 4 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 19: Washington 2 at Boston 3 (2OT)
• May 21: Washington 1 at Boston 4
• May 23: Boston 3 at Washington 1

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. St. Louis (4th in West, 63 pts)

Colorado wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1616, 1st overall
• St. Louis: 1517, 13th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Colorado: 5 regulation wins
• St. Louis: 3 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Colorado: 8-2-0
• St. Louis: 6-1-3

Series schedule:

• May 17: St. Louis 1 at Colorado 4
• May 19: St. Louis 3 at Colorado 6
• May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 1
• May 23: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 2

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Minnesota (3rd in West, 75 pts)

Vegas leads series 3-2

Chances of winning: Vegas 79%, Minnesota 21%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1575, 2nd overall
• Minnesota: 1550, 9th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Vegas: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins
• Minnesota: 4 regulation wins, 1 shootout win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Vegas: 7-3-0
• Minnesota: 5-3-2

Series schedule:

• May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
• May 18: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 3
• May 20: Vegas 5 at Minnesota 2
• May 22: Vegas 4 at Minnesota 0
• May 24: Minnesota 4 at Vegas 2
• May 26: Vegas at Minnesota
• May 28: Minnesota at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Vegas has a 78.5% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 48.9%
  • In 7 games: 29.6%
• Minnesota has a 21.5% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 21.5%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

North Division

Toronto (1st in North, 77 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Toronto leads series 3-1

Chances of winning: Toronto 95%, Montreal 5%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Toronto: 1560, 6th overall
• Montreal: 1467, 21st overall

Head-to-head this year (10 games):

• Toronto: 6 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Montreal: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Toronto: 7-1-2
• Montreal: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

• May 20: Montreal 3 at Toronto 2
• May 22: Montreal 1 at Toronto 5
• May 24: Toronto 2 at Montreal 1
• May 25: Toronto 4 at Montreal 0
• May 27: Montreal at Toronto
• May 29: Toronto at Montreal (if necessary)
• May 31: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Toronto has a 95.5% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 70.0%
  • In 6 games: 17.1%
  • In 7 games: 8.4%
• Montreal has a 4.5% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 4.5%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Edmonton (2nd in North, 72 pts) vs. Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts)

Winnipeg wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Edmonton: 1548, 10th overall
• Winnipeg: 1494, 17th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

• Edmonton: 7 regulation wins
• Winnipeg: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Edmonton: 7-3-0
• Winnipeg: 3-7-0

Series schedule:

• May 19: Winnipeg 4 at Edmonton 1
• May 21: Winnipeg 1 at Edmonton 0 (OT)
• May 23: Edmonton 4 at Winnipeg 5 (OT)
• May 24: Edmonton 3 at Winnipeg 4 (3OT)

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the first-round playoffs started.

 1       Colorado Avalanche            21.4%
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins           9.6%
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           9.2%
 4       Carolina Hurricanes           9.0%
 5       Vegas Golden Knights          9.0%
 6       Washington Capitals           8.0%
 7       Florida Panthers              6.5%
 8       Edmonton Oilers               6.1%
 9       Boston Bruins                 5.4%
10       Minnesota Wild                4.3%
11       Tampa Bay Lightning           4.1%
12       New York Islanders            2.2%
13       Nashville Predators           1.7%
14       St. Louis Blues               1.6%
15       Winnipeg Jets                 1.3%
16       Montreal Canadiens            0.7%

 

5 games.  2 overtime games.  5 overtime periods.  3 teams facing elimination.  1 team eliminated.  It was quite a day yesterday!

In the first game of the day, it took 2 overtime periods for the New York Islanders to beat Pittsburgh, 3-2.  Although Pittsburgh dominated the game, it was the Islanders coming out on top, and they head to Long Island with a 3-2 series lead.  We now give New York a 70% chance of winning that series.

In the second game, Toronto defeated Montreal 2-1.  Once again, Carey Price was amazing in net for Montreal, but he can’t do everything by himself.  Toronto now leads the series 2-1, and we’re giving Toronto an 84% chance of winning the series.

In the next game, Florida, facing elimination, started rookie Spencer Knight in net.  19-year-old Knight had only played in 4 games in the NHL, but played brilliantly, stopping 38 of 39 Tampa Bay shots, and led Florida to a 4-1 victory.  Tampa Bay leads the series 3-2, and with the next game being played in Tampa Bay, we’re giving them a 75% chance of winning the series.

Game 4 was the second North Division game of the night.  After going to overtime just the day before, these two teams went to triple overtime this time!  In the longest game in franchise history, Winnipeg won 4-3 to sweep the series.  They move on to face the winner of the Toronto / Montreal series.

In the final game of the night, Minnesota visited Vegas.  Facing elimination being down 3-1, the Wild held a 3-1 lead after the first period.  The second period was all Vegas, though, as Minnesota only managed 1 shot in the period!  But, Vegas only narrowed the gap to 3-2.  Neither team scored again until the last minute of the game, when Minnesota scored an empty net goal to put the game away.  Vegas now has a 3-2 series lead, and we’re giving them a 79% chance of winning the series.

There are only two games tonight.  In the first, Toronto and Montreal face off for the second night in a row.  And the late game features Nashville at Carolina, with that series tied 2-2.  The home team has won every game in that series, with both games in Nashville going to double overtime.  We’re giving Carolina a 62% chance of winning the series.

Yesterday’s Games

East Division, 1 vs. 4

New York Islanders 3 at Pittsburgh 2 (2OT)

• New York Islanders lead series 3-2
• New York Islanders now have a 70.2% chance of winning the series, up from 38.3%

Series schedule:

• May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
• May 18: New York Islanders 1 at Pittsburgh 2
• May 20: Pittsburgh 5 at New York Islanders 4
• May 22: Pittsburgh 1 at New York Islanders 4
• May 24: New York Islanders 3 at Pittsburgh 2 (2OT)
• May 26: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
• May 28: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Pittsburgh has a 29.8% chance of winning (▼31.9)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0% (▼32.3)
  • In 7 games: 29.8% (▲0.4)
• NY Islanders has a 70.2% chance of winning (▲31.9)
  • In 7 games: 18.3% (▼0.2)
  • In 6 games: 52.0% (▲32.2)
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

North Division, 1 vs. 4

Toronto 2 at Montreal 1

• Toronto leads series 2-1
• Toronto now has a 83.9% chance of winning the series, up from 67.8%

Series schedule:

• May 20: Montreal 3 at Toronto 2
• May 22: Montreal 1 at Toronto 5
• May 24: Toronto 2 at Montreal 1
• May 25: Toronto at Montreal
• May 27: Montreal at Toronto
• May 29: Toronto at Montreal (if necessary)
• May 31: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Toronto has a 83.9% chance of winning (▲16.1)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 40.6% (▲17.9)
  • In 6 games: 25.8% (▲2.4)
  • In 7 games: 17.6% (▼4.0)
• Montreal has a 16.1% chance of winning (▼16.1)
  • In 7 games: 9.4% (▼1.9)
  • In 6 games: 6.7% (▼6.7)
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼7.5)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Central Division, 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay 1 at Florida 4

• Tampa Bay leads series 3-2
• Tampa Bay now has a 74.5% chance of winning the series, down from 86.5%

Series schedule:

• May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
• May 18: Tampa Bay 3 at Florida 1
• May 20: Florida 6 at Tampa Bay 5 (OT)
• May 22: Florida 2 at Tampa Bay 6
• May 24: Tampa Bay 1 at Florida 4
• May 26: Florida at Tampa Bay
• May 28: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Florida has a 25.5% chance of winning (▲12.0)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 7 games: 25.5% (▲12.0)
• Tampa Bay has a 74.5% chance of winning (▼12.0)
  • In 7 games: 18.5% (▲8.7)
  • In 6 games: 56.0% (▲26.4)
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼47.1)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

North Division, 2 vs. 3

Edmonton 3 at Winnipeg 4 (3OT)

• Winnipeg wins series 4-0

Series schedule:

• May 19: Winnipeg 4 at Edmonton 1
• May 21: Winnipeg 1 at Edmonton 0 (OT)
• May 23: Edmonton 4 at Winnipeg 5 (OT)
• May 24: Edmonton 3 at Winnipeg 4 (3OT)

West Division, 2 vs. 3

Minnesota 4 at Vegas 2

• Vegas leads series 3-2
• Vegas now has a 78.5% chance of winning the series, down from 92.1%

Series schedule:

• May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
• May 18: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 3
• May 20: Vegas 5 at Minnesota 2
• May 22: Vegas 4 at Minnesota 0
• May 24: Minnesota 4 at Vegas 2
• May 26: Vegas at Minnesota
• May 28: Minnesota at Vegas (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Vegas has a 78.5% chance of winning (▼13.6)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼63.0)
  • In 6 games: 48.9% (▲30.8)
  • In 7 games: 29.6% (▲18.7)
• Minnesota has a 21.5% chance of winning (▲13.6)
  • In 7 games: 21.5% (▲13.6)
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Games

North Division, 1 vs. 4

Toronto at Montreal

• Toronto leads series 2-1
• Toronto has a 83.9% chance of winning the series

Central Division, 1 vs. 4

Nashville at Carolina

• Series tied 2-2
• Carolina has a 62.3% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Central Division

Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Nashville (4th in Central, 64 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: Carolina 62%, Nashville 38%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings: 

• Carolina: 1565, 5th overall
• Nashville: 1506, 15th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Carolina: 5 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Nashville: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Carolina: 5-2-3
• Nashville: 7-2-1

Series schedule:

• May 17: Nashville 2 at Carolina 5
• May 19: Nashville 0 at Carolina 3
• May 21: Carolina 4 at Nashville 5 (2OT)
• May 23: Carolina 3 at Nashville 4 (2OT)
• May 25: Nashville at Carolina
• May 27: Carolina at Nashville
• May 29: Nashville at Carolina (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Carolina has a 62.3% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 33.0%
  • In 7 games: 29.3%
• Nashville has a 37.7% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 18.0%
  • In 6 games: 19.7%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Florida (2nd in Central, 79 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)

Tampa Bay leads series 3-2

Chances of winning: Florida 25%, Tampa Bay 75%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Florida: 1553, 8th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1539, 11th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Florida: 5 regulation wins
• Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Florida: 8-2-0
• Tampa Bay: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

• May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
• May 18: Tampa Bay 3 at Florida 1
• May 20: Florida 6 at Tampa Bay 5 (OT)
• May 22: Florida 2 at Tampa Bay 6
• May 24: Tampa Bay 1 at Florida 4
• May 26: Florida at Tampa Bay
• May 28: Tampa Bay at Florida (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Florida has a 25.5% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 7 games: 25.5%
• Tampa Bay has a 74.5% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 18.5%
  • In 6 games: 56.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

East Division

Pittsburgh (1st in East, 77 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

New York Islanders lead series 3-2

Chances of winning: Pittsburgh 30%, New York Islanders 70%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Pittsburgh: 1575, 2nd overall
• NY Islanders: 1523, 12th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Pittsburgh: 4 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• New York Islanders: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Pittsburgh: 8-2-0
• New York Islanders: 3-4-3

Series schedule:

• May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
• May 18: New York Islanders 1 at Pittsburgh 2
• May 20: Pittsburgh 5 at New York Islanders 4
• May 22: Pittsburgh 1 at New York Islanders 4
• May 24: New York Islanders 3 at Pittsburgh 2 (2OT)
• May 26: Pittsburgh at New York Islanders
• May 28: New York Islanders at Pittsburgh (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Pittsburgh has a 29.8% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 7 games: 29.8%
• NY Islanders has a 70.2% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 18.3%
  • In 6 games: 52.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Washington (2nd in East, 77 pts) vs. Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts)

Boston wins series 4-1

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Washington: 1572, 4th overall
• Boston: 1557, 7th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Washington: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• Boston: 4 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Washington: 7-2-1
• Boston: 6-3-1

Series schedule:

• May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 17: Boston 4 at Washington 3 (OT)
• May 19: Washington 2 at Boston 3 (2OT)
• May 21: Washington 1 at Boston 4
• May 23: Boston 3 at Washington 1

West Division

Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. St. Louis (4th in West, 63 pts)

Colorado wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1616, 1st overall
• St. Louis: 1517, 13th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Colorado: 5 regulation wins
• St. Louis: 3 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Colorado: 8-2-0
• St. Louis: 6-1-3

Series schedule:

• May 17: St. Louis 1 at Colorado 4
• May 19: St. Louis 3 at Colorado 6
• May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 1
• May 23: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 2

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Minnesota (3rd in West, 75 pts)

Vegas leads series 3-2

Chances of winning: Vegas 79%, Minnesota 21%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Vegas: 1575, 2nd overall
• Minnesota: 1550, 9th overall

Head-to-head this year (8 games):

• Vegas: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins
• Minnesota: 4 regulation wins, 1 shootout win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Vegas: 7-3-0
• Minnesota: 5-3-2

Series schedule:

• May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
• May 18: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 3
• May 20: Vegas 5 at Minnesota 2
• May 22: Vegas 4 at Minnesota 0
• May 24: Minnesota 4 at Vegas 2
• May 26: Vegas at Minnesota
• May 28: Minnesota at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Vegas has a 78.5% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 48.9%
  • In 7 games: 29.6%
• Minnesota has a 21.5% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 21.5%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

North Division

Toronto (1st in North, 77 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Toronto leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Toronto 84%, Montreal 16%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Toronto: 1560, 6th overall
• Montreal: 1467, 21st overall

Head-to-head this year (10 games):

• Toronto: 6 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
• Montreal: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win

Last 10 regular season games:

• Toronto: 7-1-2
• Montreal: 4-4-2

Series schedule:

• May 20: Montreal 3 at Toronto 2
• May 22: Montreal 1 at Toronto 5
• May 24: Toronto 2 at Montreal 1
• May 25: Toronto at Montreal
• May 27: Montreal at Toronto
• May 29: Toronto at Montreal (if necessary)
• May 31: Montreal at Toronto (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Toronto has a 83.9% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 40.6%
  • In 6 games: 25.8%
  • In 7 games: 17.6%
• Montreal has a 16.1% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 9.4%
  • In 6 games: 6.7%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Edmonton (2nd in North, 72 pts) vs. Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts)

Winnipeg wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Edmonton: 1548, 10th overall
• Winnipeg: 1494, 17th overall

Head-to-head this year (9 games):

• Edmonton: 7 regulation wins
• Winnipeg: 2 regulation wins

Last 10 regular season games:

• Edmonton: 7-3-0
• Winnipeg: 3-7-0

Series schedule:

• May 19: Winnipeg 4 at Edmonton 1
• May 21: Winnipeg 1 at Edmonton 0 (OT)
• May 23: Edmonton 4 at Winnipeg 5 (OT)
• May 24: Edmonton 3 at Winnipeg 4 (3OT)

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the first-round playoffs started.

 1       Colorado Avalanche            21.4%
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins           9.6%
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           9.2%
 4       Carolina Hurricanes           9.0%
 5       Vegas Golden Knights          9.0%
 6       Washington Capitals           8.0%
 7       Florida Panthers              6.5%
 8       Edmonton Oilers               6.1%
 9       Boston Bruins                 5.4%
10       Minnesota Wild                4.3%
11       Tampa Bay Lightning           4.1%
12       New York Islanders            2.2%
13       Nashville Predators           1.7%
14       St. Louis Blues               1.6%
15       Winnipeg Jets                 1.3%
16       Montreal Canadiens            0.7%