I’ve been away from my computer for a few weeks, so I’m a little behind on my CFL Power Ratings. But, in the interests of maintaining consistency, I’m catching up with all the reports. Anyways, here goes…
It was a busy Thanksgiving weekend for football in the CFL, with 5 games played — in a 9 team league! In fact, British Columbia even had a bye week! Both Ottawa and Toronto played twice, but spaced out with playing each other on Wednesday, then playing other teams on Monday.
In the Wednesday night game, Toronto scored 27 points in the third quarter to easily defeat Ottawa 35-16. Although that improved their record to only 5-3, Toronto is 4-0 at home this year. Ottawa led 9-8 at the half, but Toronto’s strong third quarter, which included a couple of pick-sixes by their defense, put the game away for the home team. Ottawa rookie quarterback went 23-for-41 for 334 yards, but was intercepted three times.
Friday’s game saw first-place in the West Winnipeg host last-place in the West Edmonton. The result was as expected, as Winnipeg dominated Edmonton 30-3. Winnipeg is now 8-1, having won their last 6 games in a row, and are 5-0 at home. Winnipeg scored 3 safeties in the game, and were led on offense by Andrew Harris, who rushed for 150 yards and two touchdowns.
Saturday’s game had Saskatchewan looking for revenge, as they hosted Calgary after losing a close game in Calgary last week. They were disappointed, as Calgary defeated Saskatchewan 22-19 on a 44-yard field goal as time expired. Calgary scored their only touchdown of the game on their very first play from scrimmage, a 71 yard pass. All the rest of their scoring came on Rene Paredes’ 5 field goals. Saskatchewan also scored only one touchdown. Bo Levi Mitchell passed for 296 yards and Ka’Deem Carey rushed for another 109 in the winning effort.
There were two games on Thanksgiving Monday. In the first, Montreal scored a touchdown with 42 seconds left in the contest to defeat Ottawa 20-16. Montreal’s quarterback, Vernon Adams Jr., was injured with just over two minutes left, but backup Matthew Shiltz came in and completed Adams’ drive to give Montreal the victory. Ottawa sacked Adams six times in the game, but Cameron Artis-Payne’s ground game, 122 yards on 21 carries in his first CFL start, carried the Alouettes to victory.
The last game of the weekend, played while most of the country was eating turkey or napping, saw Toronto defeat Hamilton 24-23. Both quarterbacks had big games, with Toronto’s Mclead Bethel-Thompson passing for 388 yards and two touchdowns and Hamilton’s Jeremiah Masoli passing for 361 yards and his own pair of touchdowns. Toronto scored 19 points in the fourth quarter, to Hamilton’s 10, including the game-winning 51 yard field goal from Boris Bede.
Week 10 Results
Ottawa 16 at Toronto 35
Edmonton 3 at Winnipeg 30
Calgary 22 at Saskatchewan 19
Ottawa 16 at Montreal 20
Toronto 24 at Hamilton 23
McDonald CFL Power Ratings
With their two wins in the week, Toronto made a big move up in the McDonald CFL Power Rankings, now ranking 3rd. Winnipeg continues to lead the rankings, with Saskatchewan far behind in second. Despite staying in second place, Saskatchewan has lost 29 points in the last two weeks, following back-to-back losses to Calgary. The race for second place in the West has become a lot closer, with Calgary only a game back of Saskatchewan. Interesting to note, 5 teams are above a 1500 rating, the first time that has happened this season. Ottawa continues to trail in the rankings.
| Ranking | Team | Rating | Record |
| 1 | Winnipeg | 1604 (▲7) | 8-1, 1st West |
| 2 | Saskatchewan | 1526 (▼16) | 5-4, 2nd West |
| 3 | Toronto (▲2) | 1517 (▲24) | 6-3, 1st East |
| 4 | Calgary | 1515 (▲16) | 4-5, T-3rd West |
| 5 | Hamilton (▼2) | 1511 (▼15) | 4-5, T-2nd East |
| 6 | Montreal | 1496 (▲9) | 4-4, T-2nd East |
| 7 | British Columbia | 1482 | 4-4, T-3rd West |
| 8 | Edmonton | 1455 (▼6) | 2-6, 5th West |
| 9 | Ottawa | 1417 (▼17) | 2-7, 4th East |
Grey Cup Predictions
Winnipeg remains the favourite to win the Grey Cup. They win in 39% of our simulations. Toronto is now the most likely team from the East to win, with a 19% chance. In fact, the second, third, and fourth most likely teams to win all come from the East. Calgary has been moving up in the rankings, but we still only give them a 6% chance of winning it all. It’s tough playing in the same division as Winnipeg! Overall, we’re giving Western teams a 58% chance of winning the Grey Cup.
| Grey Cup Ranking | Team | Rating | Win Grey Cup |
| 1 | Winnipeg | 1604 | 39% (▲3) |
| 2 (▲1) | Toronto | 1517 | 19% (▲6) |
| 3 (▼1) | Hamilton | 1511 | 12% (▼8) |
| 4 (▲1) | Montreal | 1496 | 10% (▲2) |
| 5 (▼1) | Saskatchewan | 1526 | 9% (▼3) |
| 6 (▲1) | Calgary | 1515 | 6% (▲2) |
| 7 (▼1) | British Columbia | 1482 | 4% |
| 8 (▲1) | Edmonton | 1455 | 1% |
| 9 (▼1) | Ottawa | 1417 | <1% (▼2) |
Our Full Predictions
Winnipeg has clinched a playoff spot, while it is now impossible for Edmonton to win the West Division.
| Team | Rating | Make Playoffs | Host Playoff Game | Win Division | Make Division Final | Make Grey Cup | Win Grey Cup |
| Winnipeg 8-1, 1st in West |
1604 | ✔ | >99% | 99% | 99% | 65% | 39% |
| Toronto 6-3, 1st in East |
1517 | 99% | 91% | 71% | 86% | 47% | 19% |
| Hamilton 4-5, T-2nd in East |
1511 | 85% | 57% | 14% | 52% | 25% | 12% |
| Montreal 4-4, T-2nd in East |
1496 | 85% | 50% | 15% | 49% | 23% | 10% |
| Saskatchewan 5-4, 2nd in West |
1526 | 86% | 51% | <1% | 46% | 17% | 9% |
| Calgary 4-5, T-3rd in West |
1515 | 62% | 28% | 1% | 32% | 12% | 6% |
| British Columbia 4-4, T-3rd in West |
1482 | 64% | 20% | <1% | 28% | 9% | 4% |
| Edmonton 2-6, 5th in West |
1455 | 12% | 2% | — | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| Ottawa 2-7, 4th in East |
1417 | 6% | 2% | <1% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
Week 11 Game Predictions
Friday: Winnipeg (63%) at Edmonton (36%)
Saturday: Montreal (53%) at Ottawa (46%)
Saturday: Calgary (48%) at British Columbia (51%)
