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It was another interesting week in the NHL, with a number of games being postponed due to COVID, mostly affecting games in Canada.  With the hospitals overflowing in Ontario and British Columbia, the provincial governments have put gathering restrictions in place, limiting attendance at hockey games to 50% of capacity.  Needing the ticket revenue, the NHL has postponed most of those games, hoping to reschedule those games when the restrictions have ended.  But, they’re running out of schedule to fit those games in, so we may be seeing games back in Canada soon.  Interestingly enough, Winnipeg was talking about moving some of their games to Saskatoon, where there are no capacity restrictions in place, but have decided to stay in Winnipeg.

As a result of the game postponements, there were no Hockey Night In Canada games in Canada on Saturday night!  There were four scheduled, two early games and two late games, but none of them went ahead.  Unfortunately, I had other plans that night, so I didn’t get a chance to see which games CBC showed instead.

There wasn’t a lot of movement in the Top 5 teams this week.  Colorado continues to be our top-ranked team, although they now share that spot with Carolina.  Colorado won all three of their games this week, although two of those games were in overtime.  Although they are in 3rd spot in the Central Division, and I don’t know when, if ever, they were in first this year, they are only 4 points behind first-place Nashville and 3 points behind St. Louis, but they do have 5 games in hand, as they’ve only played 31 games and the top two teams have each played 36.

Carolina has moved into a tie for the top spot in our rankings, despite going 1-0-1 this week, with one postponed game.  They are our most-likely team to make the playoffs, as we’re giving them a 99% chance, and our top contender for the President’s Trophy, at 26%.

Toronto remains in 3rd spot after going 1-0-1, with two postponed games.  They beat 15th-ranked Edmonton at home, then lost to top-ranked Colorado in overtime.  Our models give them a 98% chance of making the playoffs and a 9% chance of winning the Stanley Cup, but anyone who follows hockey knows that their Stanley Cup chances are 0%, thanks to the Curse of Harold Ballard!  Their strong showing so far this season is just setting their fans up to break their hearts, something I know about well, being a Roughrider fan!

The Rangers moved into the top 5 this week, up from 6th to 4th, in a tie with Pittsburgh in our rankings.  They went 2-1-0 this week, and picked up 6 McDonald NHL Power Rating points in the process.  Pittsburgh, meanwhile, moved up a spot from 5th to 4th, also going 2-1-0.  They pushed Washington out of the top 5, down to 6th, as they went 0-1-1 with a postponed game.

One of the measures I use to determine whether a team is likely to make the playoffs is the 90% rule — if our models give them at least a 90% chance of making the playoffs, they are pretty much guaranteed to make it.  Of course, that means there’s still a 1 in 10 chance of them not making it, and with 16 playoff spots, 1 or 2 teams that have a 90% chance won’t make it, but it does give a pretty good indication.  Using the 90% rule, there are currently 7 teams in the Eastern Conference that are almost shoe-ins for the playoffs, despite the season not being half over yet:

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           99%
 2 (tie) Florida Panthers              98%
 2 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           98%
 4       New York Rangers              96%
 5 (tie) Washington Capitals           94%
 5 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           94%
 7       Pittsburgh Penguins           92%

The next two teams are Boston, with a 79% chance of making the playoffs, and the Islanders, with a 19% chance.

Meanwhile, things aren’t so clear-cut in the Western Conference, as the only two teams currently above the 90% line are Colorado (97%) and Nashville (91%).

Nashville?  91%?  Really???  Yes! They had a 3-0-0 week, which earned them 21 McDonald NHL Power Rating points, and moved them up 5 spots in our rankings to 8th.  It also put them in top spot in the Central Division, one point ahead of St. Louis.  They have now won their last 4 games, so they are looking strong!

The worst performing team this week was Calgary, who dropped 17 rating points after losing all three of their games this week.  That poor showing moved them down 2 spots in our rankings to 14th.  In Calgary’s defense, all their games were on the road against strong teams: Florida (ranked 7th), Tampa Bay (10th), and Carolina (1st).  They did lose quite badly, though, being outscored on the week 16-6.

The top 5

1 (tie). Carolina Hurricanes ▲1 (1592, ▲4)

Record: 24-7-2, 1st in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 99% (▲1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 26%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 10%

Last week: 1-0-1

• January 3: Postponed @ Toronto Maple Leafs (3rd, 1584)
• January 7: Won 6-3 vs. Calgary Flames (14th, 1518)
• January 8: Lost in OT 4-3 vs. Florida Panthers (7th, 1565)

Next week:

• January 11: @ Philadelphia Flyers (23th, 1464)
• January 13: vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (25th, 1440)
• January 15: vs. Vancouver Canucks (21th, 1476)

1 (tie). Colorado Avalanche (1592, ▲2)

Record: 21-8-2, 3rd in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 97% (▲2)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 15% (▲4)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 11%

Last week: 3-0-0

• January 4: Won in OT 4-3 @ Chicago Blackhawks (26th, 1439)
• January 6: Won 7-1 vs. Winnipeg Jets (16th, 1500)
• January 8: Won in OT 5-4 vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (3rd, 1584)

Next week:

• January 10: vs. Seattle Kraken (29th, 1432)
• January 11: @ Nashville Predators (8th, 1552)
• January 14: vs. Arizona Coyotes (32th, 1395)
• January 15: @ Arizona Coyotes (32th, 1395)

3. Toronto Maple Leafs (1584, ▲6)

Record: 22-8-3, 3rd in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 98% (▲2)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 14% (▲1)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲1)

Last week: 1-0-1

• January 3: Postponed vs. Carolina Hurricanes (1st, 1592)
• January 5: Won 4-2 vs. Edmonton Oilers (15th, 1508)
• January 6: Postponed @ Montreal Canadiens (31th, 1399)
• January 8: Lost in OT 5-4 @ Colorado Avalanche (1st, 1592)

Next week:

• January 11: @ Vegas Golden Knights (12th, 1543)
• January 12: @ Arizona Coyotes (32th, 1395)
• January 15: @ St. Louis Blues (9th, 1550)

4 (tie). New York Rangers ▲2 (1567, ▲6)

Record: 23-9-4, 2nd in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 96% (▲2)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 7% (▼1)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6%

Last week: 2-1-0

• January 3: Won 4-1 vs. Edmonton Oilers (15th, 1508)
• January 6: Lost 5-1 @ Vegas Golden Knights (12th, 1543)
• January 8: Won 4-1 @ Anaheim Ducks (20th, 1479)

Next week:

• January 10: @ Los Angeles Kings (17th, 1495)
• January 13: @ San Jose Sharks (22th, 1465)
• January 15: @ Philadelphia Flyers (23th, 1464)

4 (tie). Pittsburgh Penguins ▲1 (1567, ▲4)

Record: 20-9-5, 4th in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 92% (▲4)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 4%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6%

Last week: 2-1-0

• January 5: Won 5-3 vs. St. Louis Blues (9th, 1550)
• January 6: Won 6-2 @ Philadelphia Flyers (23th, 1464)
• January 8: Lost 3-2 @ Dallas Stars (18th, 1493)

Next week:

• January 11: @ Anaheim Ducks (20th, 1479)
• January 13: @ Los Angeles Kings (17th, 1495)
• January 15: @ San Jose Sharks (22th, 1465)

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

Overall Ratings

 1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      1592 (▲4)
 1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            1592 (▲2)
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           1584 (▲6)
 4 (tie) New York Rangers (▲2)         1567 (▲6)
 4 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      1567 (▲4)
 6       Washington Capitals (▼2)      1566 (▼7)
 7       Florida Panthers              1565 (▲6)
 8       Nashville Predators (▲5)      1552 (▲21)
 9       St. Louis Blues               1550 (▲8)
10       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      1545 (▲3)
11       Boston Bruins                 1544 (▲5)
12       Vegas Golden Knights (▼4)     1543 (▼13)
13       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           1535 (▲9)
14       Calgary Flames (▼2)           1518 (▼17)
15       Edmonton Oilers               1508 (▼11)
16       Winnipeg Jets                 1500 (▲1)
17       Los Angeles Kings             1495 (▼1)
18       Dallas Stars (▲1)             1493 (▲3)
19       New York Islanders (▼1)       1491
20       Anaheim Ducks                 1479 (▼1)
21       Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        1476
22       San Jose Sharks (▲1)          1465 (▲2)
23       Philadelphia Flyers (▼2)      1464 (▼14)
24       Detroit Red Wings             1449 (▲2)
25       Columbus Blue Jackets         1440 (▼6)
26 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲2)       1439 (▲6)
26 (tie) New Jersey Devils             1439 (▼5)
28       Ottawa Senators (▼1)          1437
29       Seattle Kraken                1432
30       Buffalo Sabres                1412 (▼7)
31       Montreal Canadiens            1399
32       Arizona Coyotes               1395 (▼3)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           52% (▲5)
 2       New York Rangers (▲1)         22% (▲3)
 3       Washington Capitals (▼1)      14% (▼7)
 4       Pittsburgh Penguins           12%
 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         <1%
 5 (tie) New York Islanders            <1%
 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils             <1%
 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1%

Atlantic Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs           39%
 2       Florida Panthers              38% (▲4)
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning           17% (▼2)
 4       Boston Bruins                 6% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
 5 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            50%
 2       Nashville Predators (▲1)      19% (▲5)
 3       St. Louis Blues (▼1)          15% (▼3)
 4       Minnesota Wild                13%
 5 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲1)             1% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 1% (▼2)
 7 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1%
 7 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          37%
 2       Calgary Flames (▼1)           28% (▼9)
 3       Edmonton Oilers               12% (▼1)
 4       Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            9% (▲4)
 5       Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        8% (▲2)
 6       San Jose Sharks               4% (▲2)
 7       Vancouver Canucks (▼1)        3% (▲1)
 8       Seattle Kraken                <1%

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           99% (▲1)
 2       New York Rangers (▲1)         96% (▲2)
 3       Washington Capitals (▼1)      94% (▼1)
 4       Pittsburgh Penguins           92% (▲4)
 5       New York Islanders            19%
 6 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    9% (▼4)
 6 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           9% (▼9)
 8       New Jersey Devils             3% (▼3)

Atlantic Division

 1 (tie) Florida Panthers              98% (▲2)
 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           98% (▲2)
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning           94% (▲2)
 4       Boston Bruins                 79% (▲5)
 5       Detroit Red Wings             8% (▼1)
 6       Ottawa Senators               2%
 7       Buffalo Sabres                1%
 8       Montreal Canadiens            <1%

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            97% (▲2)
 2       Nashville Predators (▲1)      91% (▲11)
 3       St. Louis Blues (▼1)          89% (▲3)
 4       Minnesota Wild                85% (▲8)
 5       Dallas Stars (▲1)             42% (▲2)
 6       Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            41% (▼3)
 7       Chicago Blackhawks            3%
 8       Arizona Coyotes               <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          83% (▼5)
 2       Calgary Flames                74% (▼12)
 3       Edmonton Oilers               52% (▼12)
 4       Anaheim Ducks                 47% (▲2)
 5       Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        44% (▼1)
 6       San Jose Sharks               27% (▲3)
 7       Vancouver Canucks             23% (▲1)
 8       Seattle Kraken                1%

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           26%
 2       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       15% (▲4)
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      14% (▲1)
 4       Florida Panthers (▼1)         13% (▲2)
 5       New York Rangers (▲1)         7% (▼1)
 6       Washington Capitals (▼1)      5% (▼4)
 7 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      4%
 7 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           4% (▼1)
 9       Nashville Predators (▲3)      3% (▲2)
10 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲2)           2% (▲1)
10 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲1)          2%
12 (tie) Boston Bruins                 1%
12 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼3)           1% (▼2)
12 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼3)     1% (▼2)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            11%
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           10%
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           9% (▲1)
 4       Florida Panthers (▲1)         7% (▲1)
 5 (tie) New York Rangers              6%
 5 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲7)      6% (▲2)
 5 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins           6%
 5 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼2)      6% (▼2)
 9 (tie) St. Louis Blues               5%
 9 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           5%
 9 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼4)     5% (▼1)
12 (tie) Boston Bruins                 4%
12 (tie) Minnesota Wild                4%
14       Calgary Flames (▼5)           3% (▼2)
15 (tie) Edmonton Oilers               2% (▼1)
15 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        2%
15 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            2%
18 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 1%
18 (tie) Dallas Stars                  1%
18 (tie) New York Islanders            1%
18 (tie) San Jose Sharks               1%
18 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             1%
23 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲1)          <1%
23 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           <1%
23 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       <1%
23 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    <1%
23 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        <1%
23 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲1)       <1%
23 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1)        <1%
23 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1)          <1%
23 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼5)      <1% (▼1)
23 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲1)           <1%

 

Happy New Year!

It was another uncertain week in the NHL, with lots of games cancelled due to COVID.  There was also the Christmas break in there, which got extended due to COVID.  And, the NHL has announced that the NHL players won’t be taking part in the Olympics, so the Olympic break is no longer necessary.  We’re still waiting for the schedule makers to come up with the new schedule, and the NHL has given no information as to when that will be released.  With the COVID uncertainties, I can understand why that hasn’t happened yet!

With so few games played this week, there weren’t many big changes to the ratings.  The top 4 remain the same, with Colorado on top, just two rating points ahead of #2 Carolina.  Toronto is still ranked third, followed by Washington in fourth.  New to the top 5 this week is Pittsburgh, who moved up two spots to fifth.

The biggest upward mover this week was Florida, who gained 18 rating points, and moved up from 9th-ranked to 7th, based on their 3-0-0 record this week.  Luckily for them, their game against number 2 Carolina was postponed.  Their big win of the week was on Dec. 30th, when they blew out Tampa Bay 9-3.

The biggest downward mover was that same Tampa Bay team, who went 1-2-1 this week.  Their sole win this week came in overtime against 31st-ranked Montreal.

It’s hard to say what’s going to happen this week, with many more games expected to be postponed due to COVID.  We’ll just have to wait and see!

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

The top 5

1. Colorado Avalanche (1590, ▲5)

Record: 18-8-2, 4th in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 95% (▲1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 11%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 11% (▲1)

Last week: 1-0-0

• December 27: Postponed @ Vegas Golden Knights (8th, 1556)
• December 29: Postponed vs. Dallas Stars (19th, 1490)
• December 31: Postponed @ Dallas Stars (19th, 1490)
• January 2: Won 4-2 vs. Anaheim Ducks (20th, 1480)

Next week:

• January 4: @ Chicago Blackhawks (28th, 1433)
• January 6: vs. Winnipeg Jets (16th, 1499)
• January 8: vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (3rd, 1578)

2. Carolina Hurricanes (1588, ▲9)

Record: 23-7-1, 2nd in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 98% (▲1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 26% (▲5)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▲1)

Last week: 2-0-0

• December 27: Postponed vs. Florida Panthers (7th, 1559)
• December 30: Won 4-0 vs. Montreal Canadiens (31th, 1399)
• January 1: Won 7-4 @ Columbus Blue Jackets (25th, 1446)

Next week:

• January 3: @ Toronto Maple Leafs (3rd, 1578)
• January 7: vs. Calgary Flames (12th, 1535)
• January 8: vs. Florida Panthers (7th, 1559)

3. Toronto Maple Leafs (1578, ▲4)

Record: 21-8-2, 3rd in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 96%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 13%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8%

Last week: 1-0-0

• December 27: Postponed @ Columbus Blue Jackets (25th, 1446)
• December 29: Postponed vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (5th, 1563)
• January 1: Won 6-0 vs. Ottawa Senators (27th, 1437)

Next week:

• January 3: vs. Carolina Hurricanes (2nd, 1588)
• January 5: vs. Edmonton Oilers (15th, 1519)
• January 6: @ Montreal Canadiens (31th, 1399)
• January 8: @ Colorado Avalanche (1st, 1590)

4. Washington Capitals (1573, ▲9)

Record: 20-6-8, 1st in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 95% (▲3)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 9% (▲1)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲1)

Last week: 2-0-1

• December 27: Postponed vs. Ottawa Senators (27th, 1437)
• December 29: Won 5-3 vs. Nashville Predators (13th, 1531)
• December 31: Won 3-1 @ Detroit Red Wings (24th, 1447)
• January 2: Lost in OT 4-3 vs. New Jersey Devils (26th, 1444)

Next week:

• January 4: @ Montreal Canadiens (31th, 1399)
• January 7: @ St. Louis Blues (9th, 1542)
• January 8: @ Minnesota Wild (14th, 1526)

5. Pittsburgh Penguins ▲2 (1563, ▲5)

Record: 18-8-5, 4th in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 88% (▲2)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 4%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6%

Last week: 1-0-0

• December 27: Postponed @ Boston Bruins (11th, 1539)
• December 29: Postponed @ Toronto Maple Leafs (3rd, 1578)
• December 31: Postponed @ Ottawa Senators (27th, 1437)
• January 2: Won 8-5 vs. San Jose Sharks (23th, 1463)

Next week:

• January 5: vs. St. Louis Blues (9th, 1542)
• January 6: @ Philadelphia Flyers (21th, 1478)
• January 8: @ Dallas Stars (19th, 1490)

Overall Ratings

 1       Colorado Avalanche            1590 (▲5)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           1588 (▲9)
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           1578 (▲4)
 4       Washington Capitals           1573 (▲9)
 5       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2)      1563 (▲5)
 6       New York Rangers              1561 (▲1)
 7       Florida Panthers (▲2)         1559 (▲18)
 8       Vegas Golden Knights          1556 (▲10)
 9 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲4)          1542 (▲15)
 9 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼4)      1542 (▼19)
11       Boston Bruins (▼1)            1539 (▲4)
12       Calgary Flames (▲3)           1535 (▲13)
13       Nashville Predators (▼1)      1531 (▼2)
14       Minnesota Wild (▼3)           1526 (▼8)
15       Edmonton Oilers (▼2)          1519 (▼8)
16       Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            1499 (▲2)
17       Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        1496 (▼2)
18       New York Islanders (▲2)       1491 (▲5)
19       Dallas Stars                  1490
20       Anaheim Ducks (▼2)            1480 (▼11)
21       Philadelphia Flyers           1478 (▼5)
22       Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        1476 (▲10)
23       San Jose Sharks (▼1)          1463 (▼8)
24       Detroit Red Wings             1447 (▼13)
25       Columbus Blue Jackets         1446 (▼5)
26       New Jersey Devils (▲3)        1444 (▲12)
27       Ottawa Senators (▲1)          1437 (▼4)
28       Chicago Blackhawks (▼1)       1433 (▼11)
29       Seattle Kraken (▼3)           1432 (▼15)
30       Buffalo Sabres                1419 (▼10)
31       Montreal Canadiens            1399 (▼3)
32       Arizona Coyotes               1398 (▲2)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           47% (▲4)
 2       Washington Capitals (▲1)      21% (▲1)
 3       New York Rangers (▼1)         19% (▼4)
 4       Pittsburgh Penguins           12% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         <1%
 5 (tie) New York Islanders            <1%
 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils             <1%
 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1%

Atlantic Division

 1       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1)      39% (▲3)
 2       Florida Panthers (▲1)         34% (▲14)
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼2)      19% (▼19)
 4       Boston Bruins                 7% (▲1)
 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
 5 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            50% (▲5)
 2       St. Louis Blues (▲2)          18% (▲6)
 3       Nashville Predators           14% (▼3)
 4       Minnesota Wild (▼2)           13% (▼8)
 5       Winnipeg Jets                 3% (▲1)
 6       Dallas Stars (▼1)             2%
 7 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1%
 7 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%

Pacific Division

 1 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲1)           37% (▲10)
 1 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          37% (▲7)
 3       Edmonton Oilers               13% (▼9)
 4       Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        6%
 5       Anaheim Ducks (▼1)            5% (▼7)
 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks               2% (▼1)
 6 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        2% (▲1)
 8       Seattle Kraken                <1%

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           98% (▲1)
 2       Washington Capitals (▲1)      95% (▲3)
 3       New York Rangers (▼1)         94% (▲1)
 4       Pittsburgh Penguins           88% (▲2)
 5       New York Islanders (▲2)       19% (▲4)
 6       Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      18% (▼5)
 7       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1)    13% (▼4)
 8       New Jersey Devils             6% (▲3)

Atlantic Division

 1 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲2)         96% (▲7)
 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           96%
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼2)      92% (▼4)
 4       Boston Bruins                 74% (▲6)
 5       Detroit Red Wings             9% (▼11)
 6       Ottawa Senators               2% (▼1)
 7       Buffalo Sabres (▼1)           1% (▼2)
 8       Montreal Canadiens            <1%

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            95% (▲1)
 2       St. Louis Blues (▲2)          86% (▲10)
 3       Nashville Predators           80% (▼1)
 4       Minnesota Wild (▼2)           77% (▼7)
 5       Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            44% (▲5)
 6       Dallas Stars (▼1)             40%
 7       Chicago Blackhawks            3% (▼3)
 8       Arizona Coyotes               <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          88% (▲6)
 2       Calgary Flames                86% (▲9)
 3       Edmonton Oilers               64% (▼9)
 4 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 45% (▼14)
 4 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        45% (▲1)
 6       San Jose Sharks               24% (▼1)
 7       Vancouver Canucks             22% (▲6)
 8       Seattle Kraken                1% (▼3)

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           26% (▲5)
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1)      13%
 3 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       11%
 3 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲4)         11% (▲5)
 5       Washington Capitals (▲1)      9% (▲1)
 6       New York Rangers (▼1)         8% (▼1)
 7       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼5)      5% (▼9)
 8       Pittsburgh Penguins           4%
 9 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲2)           3% (▲1)
 9 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲2)     3% (▲1)
11       St. Louis Blues (▲2)          2% (▲1)
12 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲1)            1%
12 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼3)           1% (▼2)
12 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼3)      1% (▼2)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            11% (▲1)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           10% (▲1)
 3 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           8%
 3 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲1)      8% (▲1)
 5 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲4)         6% (▲1)
 5 (tie) New York Rangers (▲1)         6%
 5 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      6%
 5 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     6%
 9 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲2)           5% (▲1)
 9 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲2)          5% (▲1)
 9 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼5)      5% (▼2)
12 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1)            4%
12 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼3)           4% (▼1)
12 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼1)      4%
15       Edmonton Oilers (▼4)          3% (▼1)
16 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             2%
16 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 2%
18 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼2)            1% (▼1)
18 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼2)             1% (▼1)
18 (tie) New York Islanders (▲2)       1%
18 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲2)      1%
18 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲2)          1%
18 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲2)        1%
24 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲1)          <1%
24 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           <1%
24 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       <1%
24 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    <1%
24 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼4)        <1% (▼1)
24 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲1)       <1%
24 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1)        <1%
24 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1)          <1%
24 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲1)           <1%

 

Well, it finally happened — COVID hit the NHL this week.  Ottawa had 10 players and one coach test positive this week, and as a result, all of their games were postponed.  The virus didn’t spread to any other teams, so that’s a good thing.  Also, all of the positive tests were in people who were fully vaccinated, so the chances of someone getting seriously ill are pretty low.  But still, it just goes to show you that a 90% efficacy rate doesn’t mean 100% protection; this virus can spread like wildfire, even among fully vaccinated groups, so we all still need to be vigilant.

There was very little change among the top 5 this week.  All 5 teams from last week are still the top 5 teams this week, with a minor reshuffling in the positions, as Edmonton dropped from 3rd to 5th, and as a result, Florida and Colorado both moved up a position, to 3rd and 4th, respectively.

Carolina continues to be our top-ranked team.  They have a 14-2-0 record, and sit atop the Metropolitan Division.  They went 3-0-0 this week on the road, and are looking unstoppable.  We’re giving them a 96% chance of making the playoffs, even this early in the season, and they are our favourites to win both the President’s Trophy (30%!) and the Stanley Cup (11%).  They have three more games on the road, then return home next Sunday to play a key game against #2 Washington.

Washington is in second spot in our rankings again this week, despite not having a very good week.  They went 2-1-1 on a West Coast trip, with their overtime loss coming against Anaheim (19th) and their outright loss coming against lowly Seattle (31st!).  They did have two shutouts, though, against Los Angeles (23rd) and San Jose (22nd).  They have a tough week coming up, with their first game against 29th-ranked Montreal, but followed by games against 3rd-ranked Florida, then top-ranked Carolina.

Florida moved up a spot to 3rd in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings.  They won all three of their games this week, and sit in top spot in the Atlantic Division.  We’re giving them a 95% chance of making the playoffs.  They’ll have a test this week when they play 2nd-ranked Washington on the road on Friday.

Colorado moved up one spot in the rankings, from 5th to 4th.  They had a quiet and easy week, playing only two games, and those being wins against 30th-ranked Vancouver and 31st-ranked Seattle.  They are ranked 4th in our Ratings, but are in 5th place in the Central Division with an 8-5-1 record.  They were the top-ranked team at the end of the regular season last year, so we expect better of them, but they’ll need to improve their record to hold their ranking.  We’re only giving them an 82% chance of making the playoffs, but that is up 10% from last week.

Rounding out the top 5 is Edmonton, who dropped from 3rd last week.  They went 2-1-0 this week, losing in Winnipeg 5-2 then following it up with a 2-1 shootout win at home against those same 14th-ranked Jets.  Their final game of the week was a 5-2 victory over 26th-ranked Chicago.  We’re giving them a 91% chance of making the playoffs, but surprisingly, they are only in 2nd place in the Pacific Division!

Top spot in the Pacific Division belongs to Calgary, who had the biggest move in our rankings this week.  They went 3-0-1 this week, with all four games being on the road.  Two of their victories were shutouts!  Based on this week’s performance, we’ve moved them up to 7th in our rankings, up from 14th, and awarded them 25 additional McDonald NHL Power Ratings ranking points.

The worst performer of the week was the New York Islanders.  They lost all four of their games this week, and now are in last place in the Metropolitan Division with a 5-8-2 record.  They did have a tough week, facing Tampa Bay (ranked 11th), Florida (3rd), Calgary (7th), and Toronto (6th).  We’ve reduced their chances of making the playoffs, from 53% all the way down to 27%.  We’ve reduced their rating by a whopping 29 points.

There’s good news for Canadian fans (but not Canadiens fans).  3 of the top 7 teams are from Canada, with Edmonton in 5th, Toronto in 6th, and Calgary in 7th.  Sadly, Ottawa (27th), Montreal (29th) and Vancouver (30th) aren’t holding up their end.  But the other Canadian team, Winnipeg, is in the top half, at 14th.  Let’s keep hoping for a Canadian team to bring home our Stanley Cup!

The Top 5

1. Carolina Hurricanes (1593, ▲20)

Record: 14-2-0, 1st in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 96% (▲6)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 30% (▲11)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 11% (▲3)

Last week: 3-0-0

• November 16: Won 4-2 @ Vegas Golden Knights (9th, 1538)
• November 18: Won 2-1 @ Anaheim Ducks (19th, 1484)
• November 20: Won 5-4 @ Los Angeles Kings (23th, 1470)

Next week:

• November 22: @ San Jose Sharks (22th, 1475)
• November 24: @ Seattle Kraken (31th, 1432)
• November 26: @ Philadelphia Flyers (16th, 1506)
• November 28: vs. Washington Capitals (2nd, 1573)

2. Washington Capitals (1573, ▲2)

Record: 11-3-5, 2nd in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 87% (▲2)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 9% (▼2)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8%

Last week: 2-1-1

• November 16: Lost in OT 3-2 @ Anaheim Ducks (19th, 1484)
• November 17: Won 2-0 @ Los Angeles Kings (23th, 1470)
• November 20: Won 4-0 @ San Jose Sharks (22th, 1475)
• November 21: Lost 5-2 @ Seattle Kraken (31th, 1432)

Next week:

• November 24: vs. Montreal Canadiens (29th, 1437)
• November 26: vs. Florida Panthers (3rd, 1572)
• November 28: @ Carolina Hurricanes (1st, 1593)

3. Florida Panthers ▲1 (1572, ▲17)

Record: 13-2-3, 1st in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 95% (▲7)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 17% (▲5)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲2)

Last week: 3-0-0

• November 16: Won 6-1 vs. New York Islanders (18th, 1495)
• November 18: Won 4-1 vs. New Jersey Devils (20th, 1482)
• November 20: Won 5-4 vs. Minnesota Wild (12th, 1523)

Next week:

• November 24: vs. Philadelphia Flyers (16th, 1506)
• November 26: @ Washington Capitals (2nd, 1573)
• November 27: vs. Seattle Kraken (31th, 1432)

4. Colorado Avalanche ▲1 (1558, ▲12)

Record: 8-5-1, 5th in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 82% (▲10)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 4% (▲1)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲1)

Last week: 2-0-0

• November 17: Won 4-2 @ Vancouver Canucks (30th, 1436)
• November 19: Won 7-3 @ Seattle Kraken (31th, 1432)

Next week:

• November 22: vs. Ottawa Senators (27th, 1447)
• November 24: vs. Anaheim Ducks (19th, 1484)
• November 26: @ Dallas Stars (21th, 1477)
• November 27: vs. Nashville Predators (17th, 1498)

5. Edmonton Oilers ▼2 (1552, ▼4)

Record: 13-4-0, 2nd in Pacific Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 91% (▲2)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 9% (▼3)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7%

Last week: 2-1-0

• November 16: Lost 5-2 @ Winnipeg Jets (14th, 1513)
• November 18: Won in SO 2-1 vs. Winnipeg Jets (14th, 1513)
• November 20: Won 5-2 vs. Chicago Blackhawks (26th, 1451)

Next week:

• November 23: @ Dallas Stars (21th, 1477)
• November 24: @ Arizona Coyotes (32th, 1429)
• November 27: @ Vegas Golden Knights (9th, 1538)

 

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

Overall Ratings

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           1593 (▲20)
 2       Washington Capitals           1573 (▲2)
 3       Florida Panthers (▲1)         1572 (▲17)
 4       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       1558 (▲12)
 5       Edmonton Oilers (▼2)          1552 (▼4)
 6       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲2)      1547 (▲12)
 7       Calgary Flames (▲7)           1545 (▲25)
 8       New York Rangers (▼1)         1540 (▲3)
 9       Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     1538 (▲3)
10       Boston Bruins (▼4)            1537 (▼1)
11       Tampa Bay Lightning           1525 (▼4)
12       Minnesota Wild (▼2)           1523 (▼8)
13       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲5)      1516 (▲6)
14 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼2)          1513 (▼12)
14 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲2)            1513 (▲1)
16       Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      1506 (▼9)
17       Nashville Predators (▼1)      1498 (▼14)
18       New York Islanders (▼5)       1495 (▼29)
19       Anaheim Ducks                 1484 (▼5)
20       New Jersey Devils (▲2)        1482 (▲5)
21       Dallas Stars (▲3)             1477 (▲9)
22       San Jose Sharks (▼1)          1475 (▼3)
23       Los Angeles Kings (▼3)        1470 (▼15)
24       Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    1461 (▲2)
25       Detroit Red Wings (▼2)        1454 (▼19)
26       Chicago Blackhawks (▲4)       1451 (▲11)
27       Ottawa Senators (▼1)          1447
28       Buffalo Sabres (▼1)           1444 (▼2)
29       Montreal Canadiens            1437 (▼4)
30       Vancouver Canucks (▼2)        1436 (▼6)
31       Seattle Kraken                1432 (▼4)
32       Arizona Coyotes               1429 (▲13)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           56% (▲17)
 2       Washington Capitals           22% (▼5)
 3       New York Rangers              12% (▼2)
 4 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      3% (▼3)
 4 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2)      3%
 6       New Jersey Devils (▲1)        2%
 7 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    1%
 7 (tie) New York Islanders (▼3)       1% (▼6)

Atlantic Division

 1       Florida Panthers              53% (▲12)
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs           20% (▲1)
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning           13% (▼4)
 4       Boston Bruins (▼1)            12% (▼5)
 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           1%
 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             1% (▼3)
 7 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
 7 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       32% (▲12)
 2       Minnesota Wild (▼1)           21% (▼6)
 3       Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            18% (▲2)
 4       St. Louis Blues (▼1)          14% (▼5)
 5       Nashville Predators           9% (▼6)
 6       Dallas Stars                  4% (▲1)
 7       Chicago Blackhawks            1%
 8       Arizona Coyotes               <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Edmonton Oilers               39% (▼5)
 2       Calgary Flames                33% (▲15)
 3       Vegas Golden Knights          16% (▼1)
 4       Anaheim Ducks                 7% (▼2)
 5 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             3% (▼4)
 5 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1)          3% (▼2)
 7 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲1)           <1%
 7 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             <1% (▼1)

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           96% (▲6)
 2       Washington Capitals           87% (▲2)
 3       New York Rangers              76% (▲5)
 4       Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      48% (▼4)
 5       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      45% (▲7)
 6       New Jersey Devils (▲1)        36% (▲4)
 7 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    27% (▲3)
 7 (tie) New York Islanders (▼3)       27% (▼26)

Atlantic Division

 1       Florida Panthers              95% (▲7)
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs           81% (▲10)
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning           71% (▲3)
 4       Boston Bruins (▼1)            69% (▲1)
 5       Detroit Red Wings             16% (▼16)
 6       Buffalo Sabres                14% (▼3)
 7       Ottawa Senators               7%
 8       Montreal Canadiens            3% (▼2)

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche (▲2)       82% (▲10)
 2       Minnesota Wild (▼1)           74% (▼5)
 3       Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            69% (▲1)
 4       St. Louis Blues (▼2)          64% (▼9)
 5       Nashville Predators           54% (▼12)
 6       Dallas Stars                  37% (▲8)
 7       Chicago Blackhawks            15% (▲5)
 8       Arizona Coyotes               4% (▲2)

Pacific Division

 1       Edmonton Oilers               91% (▲2)
 2       Calgary Flames                89% (▲16)
 3       Vegas Golden Knights          76% (▲5)
 4       Anaheim Ducks                 57%
 5       San Jose Sharks (▲1)          37% (▼3)
 6       Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        35% (▼14)
 7       Vancouver Canucks             9% (▼4)
 8       Seattle Kraken                7% (▼1)

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           30% (▲11)
 2       Florida Panthers              17% (▲5)
 3 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          9% (▼3)
 3 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲1)      9% (▼2)
 5       Calgary Flames (▲4)           6% (▲3)
 6 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲3)       4% (▲1)
 6 (tie) New York Rangers (▼1)         4% (▼1)
 6 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1)      4%
 9       Tampa Bay Lightning           3%
10 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼3)            2% (▼2)
10 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼5)           2% (▼3)
10 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     2% (▼1)
10 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            2% (▼1)
14 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲4)            1%
14 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲1)      1% (▼1)
14 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      1% (▼1)
14 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲4)      1%
14 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼5)          1% (▼2)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           11% (▲3)
 2 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲2)         8% (▲2)
 2 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼1)      8%
 4 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            7% (▲1)
 4 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          7%
 6       Calgary Flames (▲4)           6% (▲2)
 7 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      5%
 7 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     5%
 9 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼3)            4% (▼1)
 9 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼3)           4% (▼1)
 9 (tie) New York Rangers (▲1)         4%
 9 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      4%
13 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼3)          3% (▼1)
13 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼3)            3% (▼1)
15 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲3)            2%
15 (tie) Nashville Predators           2% (▼1)
15 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           2% (▼1)
15 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲3)      2%
19 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲8)       1% (▲1)
19 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲3)    1%
19 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲3)             1%
19 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲3)        1%
19 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        1% (▼1)
19 (tie) New York Islanders (▼4)       1% (▼2)
19 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲3)        1%
19 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼1)          1% (▼1)
27 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1%
27 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▼5)           <1% (▼1)
27 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
27 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%
27 (tie) Seattle Kraken                <1%
27 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             <1%

 

There was little movement in the top 5 in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings this week, with only one team moving in, and minor shuffling occurring.  Carolina remains the top ranked team, Washington has moved up two spots to 2nd, leaving Edmonton in 3rd and pushing Florida to 4th.  New to the top 5 this week is Colorado, as they re-enter at 5th, while St. Louis dropped out of the top 5, and fell all the way to 12th.

Colorado is currently sitting atop the Metropolitan Division with an 11-2-0 record.  This week, they won twice (once in overtime) but lost a close 2-1 game to Philadelphia.  Their rating has dropped slightly, but not enough to move them out of top spot.

Washington had a huge week this week, going 4-0-0, although all their wins were against teams in the bottom half of our rankings.  They defeated Buffalo (27th), Detroit (23rd), Columbus (25th), and Pittsburgh (18th).  Still, the four wins were good enough to give them a 25 point jump in our ratings, just two rating points behind Carolina.  Washington trails Carolina in the Metropolitan Division; both have 22 points, but Washington has played two more games than Carolina, and Carolina has more wins (11 vs. 9).  Washington has another four-game week this week, again against bottom-half teams: Anaheim (19th), Los Angeles (20th), San Jose (21st), and Seattle (31st).

Edmonton, leading the Pacific Division with a 11-3-0 record, had a middling week, with two wins and 2 losses.  Surprisingly, they lost to two bottom-half teams: Detroit (23rd) and Buffalo (27th), but beat two top-half teams, Boston (6th) and St. Louis (12th).  This performance left them unchanged at 3rd in our rankings, with a decrease of just 1 rating point.

Florida, ranked 2nd last week, went winless, with 2 losses and 2 overtime losses.  Previously, they had only lost one game all year, an overtime loss!  This performance dropped them 17 rating points in this week’s ratings, and moved them down to 4th spot.  With their 10-2-3 record, they still lead the Atlantic Division, two points ahead of 8th-ranked Toronto.

Colorado, despite sporting a 6-5-1 record and currently sitting in 5th spot in the Central Division, moved into 5th overall in our rankings.  They had a relatively easy week, beating Vancouver (ranked 28th) and San Jose (21st).  They’ve got another easy week coming up, playing on the road against Vancouver and Seattle (31st).

The biggest upward-mover in our ratings this week was Washington, with that 4-0-0 week.  Also having big weeks were Los Angeles and Vegas.  Los Angeles went 3-0-1, including a big 5-1 win over 8th-ranked Toronto on the road.  That week gained them 19 rating points, moving them up 4 spots in our rankings to 20th.  Vegas went 3-0-0; that earned them 17 rating points, moving them up from 16th in our rankings all the way up to a tie for 8th with Toronto!

The biggest downward-movers were Seattle, Arizona, and previously-discussed Florida.  Expansion team Seattle lost all 3 of their games this week, losing 20 rating points and moving them from a 28th ranking down to 31st.  We’re now giving them only an 8% chance of making the playoffs.  Arizona also had an 0-3-0 week, losing 18 rating points.  This has moved them down to last spot in our rankings.  They currently have a 1-13-1 record, and we’re only giving them a 2% chance of making the playoffs.

The Top 5

1. Carolina Hurricanes (1573, ▼4)

Record: 11-2-0, 1st in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 90% (▲1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 19% (▲1)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▼1)

Last week: 2-1-0

• November 9: Won in OT 2-1 @ Tampa Bay Lightning (11th, 1529)
• November 12: Lost 2-1 vs. Philadelphia Flyers (15th, 1515)
• November 13: Won 3-2 vs. St. Louis Blues (12th, 1525)

Next week:

• November 16: @ Vegas Golden Knights (8th, 1535)
• November 18: @ Anaheim Ducks (19th, 1489)
• November 20: @ Los Angeles Kings (20th, 1485)

2. Washington Capitals ▲2 (1571, ▲25)

Record: 9-2-4, 2nd in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 85% (▲19)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 11% (▲7)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲3)

Last week: 4-0-0

• November 8: Won 5-3 vs. Buffalo Sabres (27th, 1446)
• November 11: Won 2-0 @ Detroit Red Wings (23th, 1473)
• November 12: Won 4-3 @ Columbus Blue Jackets (25th, 1459)
• November 14: Won 6-1 vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (18th, 1510)

Next week:

• November 16: @ Anaheim Ducks (19th, 1489)
• November 17: @ Los Angeles Kings (20th, 1485)
• November 20: @ San Jose Sharks (21st, 1478)
• November 21: @ Seattle Kraken (31st, 1436)

3. Edmonton Oilers (1556, ▼1)

Record: 11-3-0, 1st in Pacific Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 89% (▼2)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 12% (▼1)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▼1)

Last week: 2-2-0

• November 9: Lost 4-2 @ Detroit Red Wings (23rd, 1473)
• November 11: Won 5-3 @ Boston Bruins (6th, 1538)
• November 12: Lost 3-2 @ Buffalo Sabres (27th, 1446)
• November 14: Won 5-4 @ St. Louis Blues (12th, 1525)

Next week:

• November 16: @ Winnipeg Jets (16th, 1512)
• November 18: vs. Winnipeg Jets (16th, 1512)
• November 20: vs. Chicago Blackhawks (30th, 1440)

4. Florida Panthers ▼2 (1555, ▼17)

Record: 10-2-3, 1st in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 88% (▼5)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 12% (▼10)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▼3)

Last week: 0-2-2

• November 8: Lost 4-3 @ New York Rangers (7th, 1537)
• November 9: Lost 7-3 @ New Jersey Devils (22th, 1477)
• November 11: Lost in SO 3-2 @ Pittsburgh Penguins (18th, 1510)
• November 13: Lost in OT 3-2 @ Tampa Bay Lightning (11th, 1529)

Next week:

• November 16: vs. New York Islanders (13th, 1524)
• November 18: vs. New Jersey Devils (22nd, 1477)
• November 20: vs. Minnesota Wild (10th, 1531)

5. Colorado Avalanche ▲1 (1546, ▲10)

Record: 6-5-1, 5th in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 72% (▲6)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 3% (▲1)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▲1)

Last week: 2-0-0

• November 11: Won 7-1 vs. Vancouver Canucks (28th, 1442)
• November 13: Won 6-2 vs. San Jose Sharks (21st, 1478)

Next week:

• November 17: @ Vancouver Canucks (28th, 1442)
• November 19: @ Seattle Kraken (31st, 1436)

 

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

Overall Ratings

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           1573 (▼4)
 2       Washington Capitals (▲2)      1571 (▲25)
 3       Edmonton Oilers               1556 (▼1)
 4       Florida Panthers (▼2)         1555 (▼17)
 5       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       1546 (▲10)
 6       Boston Bruins (▲5)            1538 (▲10)
 7       New York Rangers (▲7)         1537 (▲13)
 8 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           1535 (▲4)
 8 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲8)     1535 (▲17)
10       Minnesota Wild (▲2)           1531 (▲6)
11       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼2)      1529
12       St. Louis Blues (▼7)          1525 (▼15)
13       New York Islanders (▼6)       1524 (▼8)
14       Calgary Flames (▼5)           1520 (▼9)
15       Philadelphia Flyers           1515 (▼6)
16 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲2)      1512 (▲14)
16 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            1512 (▲5)
18       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼6)      1510 (▼15)
19       Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            1489 (▲14)
20       Los Angeles Kings (▲4)        1485 (▲19)
21       San Jose Sharks (▼2)          1478 (▼2)
22       New Jersey Devils (▲3)        1477 (▲12)
23       Detroit Red Wings (▼2)        1473
24       Dallas Stars (▼1)             1468
25       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼4)    1459 (▼14)
26       Ottawa Senators               1447 (▼12)
27       Buffalo Sabres (▲2)           1446 (▼3)
28       Vancouver Canucks (▼1)        1442 (▼16)
29       Montreal Canadiens (▲1)       1441 (▲4)
30       Chicago Blackhawks (▲2)       1440 (▲8)
31       Seattle Kraken (▼3)           1436 (▼20)
32       Arizona Coyotes (▼1)          1416 (▼18)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           39% (▼4)
 2       Washington Capitals           27% (▲13)
 3       New York Rangers (▲2)         14% (▲5)
 4       New York Islanders (▼1)       7% (▼4)
 5       Philadelphia Flyers (▼2)      6% (▼5)
 6       Pittsburgh Penguins           3% (▼4)
 7       New Jersey Devils (▲1)        2%
 8       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1)    1% (▼3)

Atlantic Division

 1       Florida Panthers              41% (▼17)
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs           19% (▲6)
 3 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲1)            17% (▲6)
 3 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      17% (▲4)
 5       Detroit Red Wings             4% (▲1)
 6       Buffalo Sabres                1% (▼1)
 7 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲1)       <1%
 7 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1% (▼1)

Central Division

 1       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           27% (▲2)
 2       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       20% (▲5)
 3       St. Louis Blues (▼2)          19% (▼14)
 4       Winnipeg Jets                 16% (▲2)
 5       Nashville Predators           15% (▲6)
 6       Dallas Stars                  3% (▼1)
 7       Chicago Blackhawks            1% (▲1)
 8       Arizona Coyotes (▼1)          <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Edmonton Oilers               44% (▼3)
 2       Calgary Flames                18% (▼8)
 3       Vegas Golden Knights          17% (▲8)
 4       Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            9% (▲4)
 5       Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        7% (▲4)
 6       San Jose Sharks (▼2)          5% (▼1)
 7       Vancouver Canucks             1% (▼1)
 8       Seattle Kraken                <1% (▼1)

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           90% (▲1)
 2       Washington Capitals           85% (▲19)
 3       New York Rangers (▲2)         71% (▲13)
 4       New York Islanders (▼1)       53% (▼7)
 5       Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      52% (▼7)
 6       Pittsburgh Penguins           38% (▼13)
 7       New Jersey Devils (▲1)        32% (▲6)
 8       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1)    24% (▼12)

Atlantic Division

 1       Florida Panthers              88% (▼5)
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1)      71% (▲6)
 3 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲1)            68% (▲8)
 3 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      68% (▲2)
 5       Detroit Red Wings             32% (▲2)
 6       Buffalo Sabres                17% (▼4)
 7       Ottawa Senators               7% (▼7)
 8       Montreal Canadiens            5% (▼1)

Central Division

 1       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           79% (▲1)
 2       St. Louis Blues (▼1)          73% (▼10)
 3       Colorado Avalanche            72% (▲6)
 4       Winnipeg Jets                 68% (▲5)
 5       Nashville Predators           66% (▲12)
 6       Dallas Stars                  29% (▼4)
 7       Chicago Blackhawks            10% (▲1)
 8       Arizona Coyotes               2% (▼6)

Pacific Division

 1       Edmonton Oilers               89% (▼2)
 2       Calgary Flames                73% (▼9)
 3       Vegas Golden Knights          71% (▲12)
 4       Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            57% (▲13)
 5       Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        49% (▲15)
 6       San Jose Sharks (▼2)          40% (▼7)
 7       Vancouver Canucks             13% (▼15)
 8       Seattle Kraken                8% (▼14)

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      19% (▲1)
 2 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          12% (▼1)
 2 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼1)         12% (▼10)
 4       Washington Capitals (▲2)      11% (▲7)
 5 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲1)           5% (▲1)
 5 (tie) New York Rangers (▲7)         5% (▲3)
 7 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲5)            4% (▲2)
 7 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1)      4% (▲1)
 9 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼5)           3% (▼3)
 9 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲3)       3% (▲1)
 9 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼5)          3% (▼3)
 9 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      3%
 9 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲8)     3% (▲2)
 9 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲3)            3% (▲1)
15 (tie) New York Islanders (▼7)       2% (▼1)
15 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲2)      2% (▲1)
15 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼7)      2% (▼1)
18 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲3)            1% (▲1)
18 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲3)        1% (▲1)
18 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲3)        1% (▲1)
18 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼6)      1% (▼1)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           8% (▼1)
 1 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲4)      8% (▲3)
 3       Edmonton Oilers               7% (▼1)
 4 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       6% (▲1)
 4 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼3)         6% (▼3)
 6 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲3)            5% (▲1)
 6 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼1)           5%
 6 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲3)      5% (▲1)
 6 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲3)     5% (▲1)
10 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼5)           4% (▼1)
10 (tie) New York Rangers (▲4)         4% (▲1)
10 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼6)          4% (▼2)
10 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      4%
10 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲4)            4% (▲1)
15 (tie) New York Islanders (▼6)       3% (▼1)
15 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼1)      3%
15 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      3%
18 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            2%
18 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲3)        2% (▲1)
18 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼4)      2% (▼1)
18 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1)          2%
22 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▼1)           1%
22 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1)    1%
22 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼1)             1%
22 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼1)        1%
22 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼1)        1%
27 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲3)          <1%
27 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲3)       <1%
27 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲3)       <1%
27 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▼6)          <1% (▼1)
27 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▼6)           <1% (▼1)
27 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼6)        <1% (▼1)

 

The NHL is in full swing now, and the McDonald NHL Power Ratings team is very confident in our predictions, as our ratings aren’t seeing the wild swings that they were having as the models calibrated themselves to this year’s teams.  Of course, as the season progresses, the ratings will continue to change to reflect current performance, but we’re liking what we’re seeing in our models now.

Carolina continues to be the top ranked team, although they did suffer their first loss of the season this week.  The premier game of the week was on Friday night, with #1 Carolina facing #2 Florida in Florida, and the Panthers thoroughly defeated the Hurricanes 5-2.  With the win, Florida closed the gap on Carolina, but not enough to take first place in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings.  Florida is the only team not to be defeated in regulation time this year, and are now our favourites to win the President’s Trophy, and are tied with Carolina at having the best chance of winning the Stanley Cup.

Out west, Edmonton continues to impress, as they’ve moved into 3rd place in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings.  They have an identical 9-1-0 record as Carolina, and went 3-0 this week.  We’re currently giving them the best chance of any Canadian team to win the Stanley Cup, at 8%.  Connor McDavid scored a highlight reel goal on Thursday against the New York Rangers, and Leon Draisaitl leads the league in goals with 10 (tied with Washington’s Alex Ovechkin) and points with 23, one point ahead of McDavid.

Washington had a bad week, losing all three of their games this week, although one was an overtime loss to 2nd-ranked Florida.  Although it’s still early in the year, we’re now giving them only a 66% chance of making the playoffs, as they’re currently sitting in 5th place in the Metropolitan Division.  They are leading the league in overtime losses with 4 (out of 11 games), so they could quite easily turn things around.

Sneaking into the top 5 is St. Louis, who moved past Colorado, last week’s #4 team.  Although the Blues had an unimpressive week, 1-1-1 against average teams, they are 7-2-1 this season to sit in second place in the Central Division.  Minnesota, who leads that division, is only ranked 12th in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings.

Big upward movers this week were Anaheim and Tampa Bay.  Anaheim, ranked 29th last week, went 3-0-0, including a 4-1 win over St. Louis last night.  That performance saw them shoot up 9 spots to 20th in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings, and a jump of 21 rating points.  Defending two-time Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay also had a good week, with 2 wins, 3-2 over the 4th-ranked Washington Capitals and 5-3 over the lowly 26th-ranked Ottawa Senators, and an overtime loss to 8th-ranked Toronto.  They gained 16 rating points and moved from 15th in our rankings all the way up to 9th.

The biggest downward moves were by the aforementioned Washington Capitals, down 16 points on the week, and the Ottawa Senators, down 20 points and 6 ranking positions to 26th.  They went 0-3-1 this week, including a 5-1 loss to bottom-ranked Chicago.

The Top 5

1. Carolina Hurricanes (1577, ▼2)

Record: 9-1-0, 1st in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 89% (▼1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 18% (▼3)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9%

Last week: 1-1-0

• November 3: Won 4-3 @ Chicago Blackhawks (32th, 1432)
• November 6: Lost 5-2 @ Florida Panthers (2nd, 1572)

Next week:

• November 9: @ Tampa Bay Lightning (9th, 1529)
• November 12: vs. Philadelphia Flyers (15th, 1521)
• November 13: vs. St. Louis Blues (5th, 1540)

2. Florida Panthers (1572, ▲6)

Record: 10-0-1, 1st in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

Making the playoffs: 93% (▲3)

• Winning the President’s Trophy: 22% (▲5)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲1)

Last week: 2-0-0

• November 4: Won in OT 5-4 vs. Washington Capitals (4th, 1546)
• November 6: Won 5-2 vs. Carolina Hurricanes (1st, 1577)

Next week:

• November 8: @ New York Rangers (14th, 1524)
• November 9: @ New Jersey Devils (25th, 1465)
• November 11: @ Pittsburgh Penguins (12th, 1525)
• November 13: @ Tampa Bay Lightning (9th, 1529)

3. Edmonton Oilers ▲1 (1557, ▲10)

Record: 9-1-0, 1st in Pacific Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 91% (▲6)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 13% (▲5)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲2)

Last week: 3-0-0

• November 1: Won 5-2 vs. Seattle Kraken (28th, 1456)
• November 3: Won 5-2 vs. Nashville Predators (18th, 1498)
• November 5: Won in OT 6-5 vs. New York Rangers (14th, 1524)

Next week:

• November 9: @ Detroit Red Wings (21th, 1473)
• November 11: @ Boston Bruins (11th, 1528)
• November 12: @ Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1449)
• November 14: @ St. Louis Blues (5th, 1540)

4. Washington Capitals ▼1 (1546, ▼16)

Record: 5-2-4, 5th in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 66% (▼13)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 4% (▼6)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 5% (▼2)

Last week: 0-2-1

• November 1: Lost 3-2 @ Tampa Bay Lightning (9th, 1529)
• November 4: Lost in OT 5-4 @ Florida Panthers (2nd, 1572)
• November 6: Lost 2-1 vs. Philadelphia Flyers (15th, 1521)

Next week:

• November 8: vs. Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1449)
• November 11: @ Detroit Red Wings (21th, 1473)
• November 12: @ Columbus Blue Jackets (21th, 1473)
• November 14: vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (12th, 1525)

5. St. Louis Blues ▲1 (1540, ▼2)

Record: 7-2-1, 2nd in Central Division

Chances of: 

Making the playoffs: 83% (▼1)

• Winning the President’s Trophy: 6% (▼2)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6%

Last week: 1-1-1

• November 3: Lost in SO 3-2 @ Los Angeles Kings (24th, 1466)
• November 4: Won 5-3 @ San Jose Sharks (19th, 1480)
• November 7: Lost 4-1 @ Anaheim Ducks (20th, 1475)

Next week:

• November 9: @ Winnipeg Jets (17th, 1507)
• November 11: vs. Nashville Predators (18th, 1498)
• November 13: @ Carolina Hurricanes (1st, 1577)
• November 14: vs. Edmonton Oilers (3rd, 1557)

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

Overall Ratings

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           1577 (▼2)
 2       Florida Panthers              1572 (▲6)
 3       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          1557 (▲10)
 4       Washington Capitals (▼1)      1546 (▼16)
 5       St. Louis Blues (▲1)          1540 (▼2)
 6       Colorado Avalanche (▼2)       1536 (▼11)
 7       New York Islanders (▲4)       1532 (▲8)
 8       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲5)      1531 (▲13)
 9 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲1)           1529 (▲4)
 9 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲6)      1529 (▲16)
11       Boston Bruins (▼3)            1528 (▼2)
12 (tie) Minnesota Wild                1525 (▲6)
12 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼3)      1525 (▼2)
14       New York Rangers (▼7)         1524 (▼7)
15       Philadelphia Flyers (▲2)      1521 (▲15)
16       Vegas Golden Knights (▼3)     1518
17       Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            1507 (▼5)
18       Nashville Predators           1498 (▲2)
19       San Jose Sharks               1480 (▼2)
20       Anaheim Ducks (▲9)            1475 (▲21)
21 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲5)    1473 (▲11)
21 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             1473 (▼3)
23       Dallas Stars (▼1)             1468 (▼3)
24       Los Angeles Kings             1466
25       New Jersey Devils (▼2)        1465 (▼5)
26       Ottawa Senators (▼6)          1459 (▼20)
27       Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        1458
28       Seattle Kraken (▼1)           1456 (▼5)
29       Buffalo Sabres (▼4)           1449 (▼14)
30       Montreal Canadiens            1437 (▼7)
31       Arizona Coyotes               1434 (▼4)
32       Chicago Blackhawks            1432 (▼1)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           43% (▲1)
 2       Washington Capitals           14% (▼8)
 3 (tie) New York Islanders (▲1)       11% (▲3)
 3 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲2)      11% (▲5)
 5       New York Rangers (▼2)         9% (▼3)
 6       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1)      7% (▲1)
 7       Columbus Blue Jackets         4% (▲2)
 8       New Jersey Devils (▼1)        2%

Atlantic Division

 1       Florida Panthers              58% (▲6)
 2 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      13% (▲3)
 2 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲2)      13% (▲4)
 4       Boston Bruins (▼2)            11% (▼4)
 5       Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        3% (▼1)
 6       Buffalo Sabres (▼1)           2% (▼3)
 7       Ottawa Senators (▼1)          1% (▼3)
 8       Montreal Canadiens            <1% (▼1)

Central Division

 1       St. Louis Blues               33% (▼1)
 2       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           25% (▲9)
 3       Colorado Avalanche (▼1)       15% (▼6)
 4       Winnipeg Jets                 14%
 5       Nashville Predators           9% (▲1)
 6       Dallas Stars                  4%
 7 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1% (▼1)
 7 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Edmonton Oilers               47% (▲9)
 2       Calgary Flames                26% (▼3)
 3       Vegas Golden Knights          9% (▼4)
 4       San Jose Sharks               6% (▼3)
 5       Anaheim Ducks                 5% (▲2)
 6       Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        3%
 7       Vancouver Canucks (▼2)        2% (▼1)
 8       Seattle Kraken (▼3)           1% (▼2)

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           89% (▼1)
 2       Washington Capitals           66% (▼13)
 3       New York Islanders (▲1)       60% (▲5)
 4       Philadelphia Flyers (▲2)      59% (▲12)
 5       New York Rangers (▼2)         58% (▼7)
 6       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1)      51% (▲1)
 7       Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    36% (▲9)
 8       New Jersey Devils (▼1)        26% (▼3)

Atlantic Division

 1       Florida Panthers              93% (▲3)
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      66% (▲14)
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1)      65% (▲15)
 4       Boston Bruins (▼2)            60% (▼1)
 5       Detroit Red Wings             30% (▼3)
 6       Buffalo Sabres (▼1)           21% (▼12)
 7       Ottawa Senators               14% (▼16)
 8       Montreal Canadiens            6% (▼3)

Central Division

 1       St. Louis Blues               83% (▼1)
 2       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           78% (▲9)
 3       Colorado Avalanche (▼1)       66% (▼9)
 4       Winnipeg Jets                 63% (▼2)
 5       Nashville Predators           54% (▲3)
 6       Dallas Stars                  33% (▼4)
 7       Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       9% (▼1)
 8       Arizona Coyotes (▼1)          8% (▼3)

Pacific Division

 1       Edmonton Oilers               91% (▲6)
 2       Calgary Flames                82% (▲2)
 3       Vegas Golden Knights          59% (▼3)
 4       San Jose Sharks               47% (▼5)
 5       Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            44% (▲15)
 6       Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        34% (▲3)
 7       Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        28%
 8       Seattle Kraken (▼2)           22% (▼7)

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Florida Panthers (▲1)         22% (▲5)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes (▼1)      18% (▼3)
 3       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          13% (▲5)
 4 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲2)           6%
 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues               6% (▼2)
 6 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲3)           4% (▲1)
 6 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼3)      4% (▼6)
 8 (tie) New York Islanders (▲1)       3%
 8 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲4)      3% (▲1)
 8 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲4)      3% (▲1)
 8 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲9)      3% (▲2)
12 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼3)            2% (▼1)
12 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼5)       2% (▼2)
12 (tie) New York Rangers (▼5)         2% (▼2)
12 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins           2%
12 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 2%
17 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲6)    1% (▲1)
17 (tie) Nashville Predators           1%
17 (tie) San Jose Sharks               1%
17 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼5)     1% (▼1)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           9%
 1 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲1)         9% (▲1)
 3       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          8% (▲2)
 4       St. Louis Blues               6%
 5 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲2)           5%
 5 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼1)       5% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲3)           5% (▲1)
 5 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼2)      5% (▼2)
 9 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1)            4%
 9 (tie) New York Islanders (▲4)       4% (▲1)
 9 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲4)      4% (▲1)
 9 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲4)      4% (▲1)
 9 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     4%
14 (tie) New York Rangers (▼6)         3% (▼1)
14 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼1)      3%
14 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      3%
14 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1)      3%
14 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼6)            3% (▼1)
19 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲2)            2% (▲1)
19 (tie) San Jose Sharks               2%
21 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                1%
21 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         1%
21 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼2)             1% (▼1)
21 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             1%
21 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             1%
21 (tie) New Jersey Devils             1%
21 (tie) Ottawa Senators               1%
21 (tie) Seattle Kraken                1%
21 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             1%
30 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1%
30 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%
30 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%

 

We’re three weeks into the NHL season now, and most of the uncertainty we’ve introduced into our models has worked its way out of the system, and the models are now pretty well calibrated.  We’re still seeing some big changes, but no more than we would normally expect to see in a week, so things seem pretty stable.  Of course, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty because it’s so early in the season, but we feel that our ratings are pretty accurate as to how the teams are currently playing, and as the season progresses, we’ll see more and more accurate calculations.

Carolina remains the top team in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings, and it’s not a surprise, as they are the only undefeated team in the league, with a current record of 8-0-0.  That’s an amazing start!  As a result, despite them only having played about 10% of their schedule, we’re already giving them a 90% chance of making the playoffs, and a 21% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.  They are also the favourites to win the Stanley Cup, but at 9% probability, that’s far from a sure thing!  They won all four of their games this week, although two of those games were against last-ranked Chicago and second-last-ranked Arizona.  But still, 8 wins to start the season is pretty impressive!

Florida is ranked number 2, as they were last week.  They’ve had as impressive a start as Carolina, having won their first eight games.  In their ninth, though, they lost in a shootout to 8th-ranked Boston.  Their numbers aren’t far behind Carolina’s, with a 90% chance of making the playoffs (same as Carolina), a 17% chance of winning the President’s Trophy (vs. 21%), and an 8% probability of winning the Stanley Cup (vs. 9%).  They have a tough week coming up which will be a good indication of whether they’re as good as we think they are, as they play number 3 Washington on Thursday and number 1 Carolina on Saturday.  That Saturday game should be a good one!

Washington is ranked number 3, up one spot from last week.  They had two wins and an overtime loss.  They haven’t lost in regulation time yet this year, but do have three overtime losses, blemishing their otherwise spotless record at 5-0-3.

Moving back into the top 5 is Colorado, taking the number 4 spot.  They are 4-4-0 this year, good for only 5th position in the Central Division, but they seem to be starting to come into form.

Rounding out the top 5 is Edmonton, who are tied with Colorado for the number 4 spot.  They lost their first game of the year to Philadelphia, but followed that up with a win over Vancouver.  Despite their great start with a 6-1-0 record, they are only 2nd in the Pacific Division.

The reason Edmonton is only 2nd in the Pacific is because Calgary is also having a great start.  They are 6-1-1 for a one point lead over Edmonton, and had 4 wins this week.  They had the biggest move this week, picking up 33 rating points and moving up 8 spots in our rankings, to number 10.  It might be a great year for Alberta teams!

The biggest downward movement this week was Pittsburgh.  They had been number 2 last week, but after losing three games and being outscored 13-3 this week, we’ve dropped their rating by 33 points, moving them to number 9 in the rankings.  We’ll keep an eye on them to see if they can turn things around.

The Top 5

1. Carolina Hurricanes (1579, ▲20)

Record: 8-0-0, 1st in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 90% (▲11)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 21% (▲10)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲2)

Last week: 4-0-0

• October 25: Won 4-1 vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (13th, 1518)
• October 28: Won 3-0 vs. Boston Bruins (8th, 1530)
• October 29: Won 6-3 vs. Chicago Blackhawks (32th, 1433)
• October 31: Won 2-1 vs. Arizona Coyotes (31th, 1438)

Next week:

• November 3: @ Chicago Blackhawks (32th, 1433)
• November 6: @ Florida Panthers (2nd, 1566)

2. Florida Panthers (1566, ▲10)

Record: 8-0-1, 1st in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 90% (▲8)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 17% (▲5)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲1)

Last week: 3-0-1

• October 25: Won 5-3 vs. Arizona Coyotes (31th, 1438)
• October 27: Won 4-1 vs. Boston Bruins (8th, 1530)
• October 29: Won in OT 3-2 @ Detroit Red Wings (21th, 1476)
• October 30: Lost in SO 3-2 @ Boston Bruins (8th, 1530)

Next week:

• November 4: vs. Washington Capitals (3rd, 1562)
• November 6: vs. Carolina Hurricanes (1st, 1579)

3. Washington Capitals ▲1 (1562, ▲8)

Record: 5-0-3, 2nd in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 79% (▲6)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 10% (▲2)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲1)

Last week: 2-0-1

• October 25: Won 7-5 @ Ottawa Senators (20th, 1479)
• October 27: Lost in OT 3-2 vs. Detroit Red Wings (21th, 1476)
• October 29: Won 2-0 vs. Arizona Coyotes (31th, 1438)

Next week:

• November 1: @ Tampa Bay Lightning (15th, 1513)
• November 4: @ Florida Panthers (2nd, 1566)
• November 6: vs. Philadelphia Flyers (17th, 1506)

4 (tie). Colorado Avalanche ▲3 (1547, ▲6)

Record: 4-4-0, 5th in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 75% (▲5)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 4%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▲1)

Last week: 2-1-0

• October 26: Lost 3-1 vs. Vegas Golden Knights (13th, 1518)
• October 28: Won 4-3 @ St. Louis Blues (6th, 1542)
• October 30: Won 4-1 vs. Minnesota Wild (12th, 1519)

Next week:

• November 3: vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (26th, 1462)
• November 6: @ Columbus Blue Jackets (26th, 1462)

4 (tie). Edmonton Oilers ▲1 (1547, ▼2)

Record: 6-1-0, 2nd in Pacific Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 85% (▼1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 8% (▼2)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▼1)

Last week: 1-1-0

• October 27: Lost 5-3 vs. Philadelphia Flyers (17th, 1506)
• October 30: Won 2-1 @ Vancouver Canucks (28th, 1458)

Next week:

• November 1: vs. Seattle Kraken (27th, 1461)
• November 3: vs. Nashville Predators (18th, 1496)
• November 5: vs. New York Rangers (7th, 1531)

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

Overall Ratings

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           1579 (▲20)
 2       Florida Panthers              1566 (▲10)
 3       Washington Capitals (▲1)      1562 (▲8)
 4 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲3)       1547 (▲6)
 4 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          1547 (▼2)
 6       St. Louis Blues (▲1)          1542 (▲1)
 7       New York Rangers (▲2)         1531 (▲4)
 8       Boston Bruins (▼2)            1530 (▼12)
 9       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼7)      1527 (▼29)
10       Calgary Flames (▲8)           1525 (▲33)
11       New York Islanders            1524
12       Minnesota Wild (▼2)           1519 (▼7)
13 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      1518 (▼1)
13 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          1518 (▲7)
15       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      1513 (▲7)
16       Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            1512 (▲14)
17       Philadelphia Flyers           1506 (▲10)
18       Nashville Predators (▲1)      1496 (▲7)
19       San Jose Sharks (▼4)          1482 (▼16)
20       Ottawa Senators (▲3)          1479 (▲2)
21       Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        1476 (▼2)
22       Dallas Stars (▼2)             1471 (▼16)
23       New Jersey Devils (▲1)        1470 (▲1)
24       Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        1466 (▲2)
25       Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           1463 (▲1)
26       Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    1462 (▲2)
27       Seattle Kraken (▲3)           1461 (▲8)
28       Vancouver Canucks (▼7)        1458 (▼22)
29       Anaheim Ducks (▲2)            1454 (▲2)
30       Montreal Canadiens (▼2)       1444 (▼12)
31       Arizona Coyotes (▼3)          1438 (▼18)
32       Chicago Blackhawks            1433 (▼8)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           42% (▲16)
 2       Washington Capitals (▲1)      22% (▲2)
 3       New York Rangers (▲1)         12% (▼1)
 4       New York Islanders (▲1)       8% (▼2)
 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      6% (▲1)
 5 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼3)      6% (▼15)
 7 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    2%
 7 (tie) New Jersey Devils             2% (▼1)

Atlantic Division

 1       Florida Panthers              52% (▲12)
 2       Boston Bruins                 15% (▼9)
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      10% (▲1)
 4       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      9% (▼1)
 5       Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           5%
 6 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼1)        4% (▼2)
 6 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1)          4%
 8       Montreal Canadiens            1% (▼1)

Central Division

 1       St. Louis Blues               34% (▲1)
 2       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       21% (▲3)
 3       Minnesota Wild (▼1)           16% (▼6)
 4       Winnipeg Jets                 14% (▲5)
 5       Nashville Predators (▲1)      8% (▲2)
 6       Dallas Stars (▼2)             4% (▼5)
 7       Arizona Coyotes               1% (▼1)
 8       Chicago Blackhawks            <1% (▼1)

Pacific Division

 1       Edmonton Oilers               38% (▼5)
 2       Calgary Flames (▲1)           29% (▲17)
 3       Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     13% (▲4)
 4       San Jose Sharks (▼2)          9% (▼8)
 5 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            3% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        3% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲3)           3%
 5 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼1)        3% (▼6)

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           90% (▲11)
 2       Washington Capitals (▲1)      79% (▲6)
 3       New York Rangers (▲1)         65% (▲3)
 4       New York Islanders (▲1)       55% (▼1)
 5       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼3)      50% (▼24)
 6       Philadelphia Flyers           47% (▲7)
 7       New Jersey Devils             29% (▼2)
 8       Columbus Blue Jackets         27% (▲2)

Atlantic Division

 1       Florida Panthers              90% (▲8)
 2       Boston Bruins                 61% (▼9)
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      52% (▲5)
 4       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      50%
 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           33% (▲2)
 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             33% (▼2)
 7       Ottawa Senators               30%
 8       Montreal Canadiens            9% (▼7)

Central Division

 1       St. Louis Blues               84% (▲2)
 2       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       75% (▲5)
 3       Minnesota Wild (▼1)           69% (▼5)
 4       Winnipeg Jets                 65% (▲13)
 5       Nashville Predators (▲1)      51% (▲9)
 6       Dallas Stars (▼2)             37% (▼15)
 7       Arizona Coyotes               11% (▼12)
 8       Chicago Blackhawks            10% (▼6)

Pacific Division

 1       Edmonton Oilers               85% (▼1)
 2       Calgary Flames (▲1)           80% (▲25)
 3       Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     62% (▲12)
 4       San Jose Sharks (▼2)          52% (▼12)
 5       Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        31% (▼1)
 6 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            29% (▼1)
 6 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲2)           29% (▲4)
 8       Vancouver Canucks (▼3)        28% (▼20)

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      21% (▲10)
 2       Florida Panthers (▼1)         17% (▲5)
 3       Washington Capitals (▲3)      10% (▲2)
 4 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          8% (▼2)
 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues               8% (▼1)
 6       Calgary Flames (▲7)           6% (▲4)
 7 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲2)       4%
 7 (tie) New York Rangers (▲2)         4%
 9 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼2)            3% (▼3)
 9 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼1)           3% (▼2)
 9 (tie) New York Islanders (▲2)       3%
12 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲4)      2% (▲1)
12 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼8)      2% (▼7)
12 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      2%
12 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲4)     2% (▲1)
12 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲4)            2% (▲1)
17 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▼1)           1%
17 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼1)        1%
17 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼1)      1%
17 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼1)        1%
17 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼6)          1% (▼2)
17 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼4)      1% (▼1)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           9% (▲2)
 2       Florida Panthers (▼1)         8% (▲1)
 3       Washington Capitals (▲1)      7% (▲1)
 4 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲3)       6% (▲1)
 4 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼3)          6% (▼1)
 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues               6%
 7       Calgary Flames (▲5)           5% (▲2)
 8 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1)            4% (▼1)
 8 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼1)           4% (▼1)
 8 (tie) New York Rangers (▲2)         4%
 8 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲4)     4% (▲1)
 8 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲4)            4% (▲1)
13 (tie) New York Islanders (▼3)       3% (▼1)
13 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲5)      3% (▲1)
13 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲5)      3% (▲1)
13 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼9)      3% (▼3)
13 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      3%
13 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      3%
19 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼1)             2%
19 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼7)          2% (▼1)
21 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲2)            1%
21 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲2)           1%
21 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2)    1%
21 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼3)        1% (▼1)
21 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲2)        1%
21 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲2)        1%
21 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲2)          1%
21 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲2)           1%
21 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼3)        1% (▼1)
30 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▼7)          <1% (▼1)
30 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▼7)       <1% (▼1)
30 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▼7)       <1% (▼1)