Shane's Computer Solution Repository

I was just on a trans-atlantic cruise, and the ship I was on had no Internet, so I’ve been Internet-less for the last 16 days.  I’ve also been hockey coverage-less, as the boat’s TV channels didn’t cover hockey, although it did have lots of Australian Rules Football, soccer, and American college basketball.  Anyways, I’m back on dry land, but am quite far behind on my hockey reports.  So, I’ going to add in the weekly reports I had missed, but without my usual witty commentary.

Anyways, here goes the first missed weekly report.

The top 5

1. Colorado Avalanche (1611, ▼6)

Record: 42-13-5, 1st in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 35% (▼10)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 16% (▼1)

Last week: 2-2-0

• March 7: Won 5-4 @ New York Islanders (20th, 1495)
• March 8: Lost 5-3 @ New Jersey Devils (28th, 1418)
• March 10: Lost 2-0 @ Carolina Hurricanes (2nd, 1595)
• March 13: Won 3-0 vs. Calgary Flames (5th, 1574)

Next week:

• March 15: @ Los Angeles Kings (13th, 1524)
• March 18: @ San Jose Sharks (22nd, 1452)

2. Carolina Hurricanes (1595, ▲3)

Record: 41-13-5, 1st in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 31% (▲6)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 11% (▲1)

Last week: 2-1-0

• March 10: Won 2-0 vs. Colorado Avalanche (1st, 1611)
• March 12: Won 3-1 vs. Philadelphia Flyers (29th, 1415)
• March 13: Lost 4-2 @ Pittsburgh Penguins (4th, 1580)

Next week:

• March 17: @ Toronto Maple Leafs (10th, 1557)
• March 18: vs. Washington Capitals (12th, 1528)
• March 20: vs. New York Rangers (7th, 1567)

3. Florida Panthers ▲4 (1586, ▲17)

Record: 40-13-6, 1st in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 25% (▲15)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲3)

Last week: 3-0-1

• March 7: Won 6-1 @ Buffalo Sabres (26th, 1425)
• March 8: Won 4-3 @ Pittsburgh Penguins (4th, 1580)
• March 10: Won 6-3 vs. Philadelphia Flyers (29th, 1415)
• March 13: Lost in SO 3-2 @ Los Angeles Kings (13th, 1524)

Next week:

• March 15: @ San Jose Sharks (22nd, 1452)
• March 17: @ Vegas Golden Knights (18th, 1503)
• March 18: @ Anaheim Ducks (23rd, 1447)

4. Pittsburgh Penguins (1580, ▲5)

Record: 36-15-9, 2nd in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 1%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲1)

Last week: 2-1-0

• March 8: Lost 4-3 vs. Florida Panthers (3rd, 1586)
• March 11: Won 5-2 vs. Vegas Golden Knights (18th, 1503)
• March 13: Won 4-2 vs. Carolina Hurricanes (2nd, 1595)

Next week:

• March 15: @ Nashville Predators (11th, 1530)
• March 17: @ St. Louis Blues (9th, 1559)
• March 19: @ Arizona Coyotes (27th, 1422)

5. Calgary Flames ▲1 (1574)

Record: 36-16-7, 1st in Pacific Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99% (▲1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 1% (▼1)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲1)

Last week: 3-2-0

• March 7: Won 3-1 vs. Edmonton Oilers (15th, 1518)
• March 8: Lost 5-4 vs. Washington Capitals (12th, 1528)
• March 10: Won 4-1 vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (6th, 1570)
• March 12: Won 3-0 vs. Detroit Red Wings (29th, 1415)
• March 13: Lost 3-0 @ Colorado Avalanche (1st, 1611)

Next week:

• March 16: vs. New Jersey Devils (28th, 1418)
• March 18: vs. Buffalo Sabres (26th, 1425)
• March 19: @ Vancouver Canucks (16th, 1512)

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

Overall Ratings

 1       Colorado Avalanche            1611 (▼6)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           1595 (▲3)
 3       Florida Panthers (▲4)         1586 (▲17)
 4       Pittsburgh Penguins           1580 (▲5)
 5       Calgary Flames (▲1)           1574
 6       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼3)      1570 (▼16)
 7       New York Rangers (▼3)         1567 (▼8)
 8       Boston Bruins (▲1)            1566 (▲7)
 9       St. Louis Blues (▲1)          1559 (▲2)
10       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼2)      1557 (▼5)
11       Nashville Predators (▲3)      1530 (▲13)
12       Washington Capitals (▲4)      1528 (▲12)
13       Los Angeles Kings (▼2)        1524 (▼11)
14       Minnesota Wild (▼1)           1521 (▼4)
15       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          1518 (▲2)
16       Vancouver Canucks             1512 (▼4)
17       Winnipeg Jets (▲2)            1506 (▲11)
18 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼4)             1503 (▼14)
18 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼7)     1503 (▼32)
20       New York Islanders            1495 (▲13)
21       Columbus Blue Jackets         1470 (▼3)
22       San Jose Sharks (▲1)          1452 (▲12)
23       Anaheim Ducks (▼1)            1447 (▼18)
24       Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       1439 (▲13)
25       Ottawa Senators (▼1)          1436
26       Buffalo Sabres (▲4)           1425 (▲14)
27       Arizona Coyotes (▲2)          1422 (▲9)
28       New Jersey Devils (▼1)        1418 (▲4)
29 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼4)        1415 (▼11)
29 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼2)      1415 (▲1)
31       Montreal Canadiens            1398 (▼4)
32       Seattle Kraken                1397

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           83% (▲9)
 2       New York Rangers              9% (▼8)
 3       Pittsburgh Penguins           8%
 4 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         <1%
 4 (tie) New York Islanders            <1%
 4 (tie) New Jersey Devils             <1%
 4 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1%
 4 (tie) Washington Capitals           <1%

Atlantic Division

 1       Florida Panthers (▲1)         72% (▲32)
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      18% (▼28)
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           7% (▼4)
 4       Boston Bruins                 3%
 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
 5 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            97%
 2       St. Louis Blues               2%
 3 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲1)          <1%
 3 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       <1%
 3 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲1)             <1%
 3 (tie) Minnesota Wild                <1% (▼1)
 3 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲1)      <1%
 3 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Calgary Flames                91% (▲7)
 2       Los Angeles Kings             7% (▼2)
 3       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          2%
 4 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            <1%
 4 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1)          <1%
 4 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲1)           <1%
 4 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        <1%
 4 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     <1% (▼5)

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           >99%
 1 (tie) New York Rangers              >99%
 1 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins           >99%
 4       Washington Capitals           94% (▲7)
 5       Columbus Blue Jackets         4% (▼6)
 6       New York Islanders            3%
 7 (tie) New Jersey Devils             <1%
 7 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1%

Atlantic Division

 1 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲3)            >99% (▲1)
 1 (tie) Florida Panthers              >99%
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           >99%
 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           >99%
 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
 5 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            >99%
 2       St. Louis Blues               98% (▲2)
 3       Nashville Predators (▲2)      90% (▲16)
 4       Minnesota Wild (▼1)           89% (▲4)
 5       Dallas Stars (▼1)             70% (▼10)
 6       Winnipeg Jets                 16% (▲8)
 7 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1%
 7 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Calgary Flames                >99% (▲1)
 2       Los Angeles Kings             90% (▲5)
 3       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          67% (▲17)
 4       Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     41% (▼37)
 5       Vancouver Canucks             33% (▲1)
 6       San Jose Sharks (▲1)          4% (▲3)
 7       Anaheim Ducks (▼1)            2% (▼9)
 8       Seattle Kraken                <1%

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Colorado Avalanche            35% (▼10)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           31% (▲6)
 3       Florida Panthers (▲1)         25% (▲15)
 4       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      4% (▼9)
 5 (tie) Calgary Flames                1% (▼1)
 5 (tie) New York Rangers              1% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2)      1%
 5 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲2)      1%

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            16% (▼1)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           11% (▲1)
 3 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲1)           9% (▲1)
 3 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲4)         9% (▲3)
 5       Pittsburgh Penguins           8% (▲1)
 6       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼3)      7% (▼2)
 7 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲1)            6% (▲1)
 7 (tie) New York Rangers (▼2)         6% (▼1)
 7 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲1)          6% (▲1)
10       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼2)      5%
11 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             3%
11 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲3)      3% (▲1)
11 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲3)      3% (▲1)
14 (tie) Dallas Stars                  2%
14 (tie) Edmonton Oilers               2%
14 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼3)           2% (▼1)
17 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        1%
17 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼6)     1% (▼2)
17 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲2)            1% (▲1)
20 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼1)            <1%
20 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▼1)          <1%
20 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▼1)           <1%
20 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▼1)       <1%
20 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1)    <1%
20 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼1)        <1%
20 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▼1)       <1%
20 (tie) New York Islanders (▼1)       <1%
20 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼1)        <1%
20 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▼1)          <1%
20 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      <1%
20 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼1)          <1%
20 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▼1)           <1%

 

Two teams re-entered the McDonald NHL Power Rankings this week, and so of course two teams dropped out, but there was no change in our top 3.

The top-ranked team continues to be Colorado.  They had a weak week, going 1-1-1 and dropping 9 rating points, but second-ranked Carolina also had a weak week (I like that!), despite going 2-1-1, so Colorado remains at the top.  Colorado started off the week with a home victory over the 20th-ranked New York Islanders, but then lost away against 29th-ranked Arizona (29th-ranked Arizona!!!), then an overtime loss at home to 6th-ranked Calgary.  After those two losses, we’ve dropped our estimate of their chances of winning the President’s Trophy down from 45%, a decrease of 7%.  We’ve also revised their chances of winning the Stanley Cup, from 19% last week down to 17% this week.

Carolina started the week with two losses, an overtime loss to 25th-ranked Detroit and a regulation shutout from 16th-ranked Washington.  They turned it around with an overtime win against 4th-ranked Pittsburgh and a regulation win against 32nd-ranked Seattle.  But, because of the two losses, and needing overtime in their Pittsburgh win, we’ve decreased their rating points by 10, still good enough for 2nd in our rankings.

Tampa Bay was ranked 3rd last week, and they retain that ranking this week, but they’re moving closer to the top 2!  They are currently only 6 rating points behind Carolina after going 3-1-0 this week.  They had wins against 24th-ranked Ottawa and 25th-ranked Detroit and Chicago (they’re both tied in 25th), but lost to 4th-ranked Pittsburgh.  Still, the 3 wins were enough for them to pick up 4 rating points and move them a little closer to 2nd in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings.

Pittsburgh only had two games this week, but both on the road against tough teams!  They beat 3rd-ranked Tampa Bay, then 2nd-ranked Carolina needed overtime to beat them.  Despite going 1-0-1 this week, we still awarded them 10 rating points, which moved them from 7th in our rankings back up to 4th.

The New York Rangers round out our top 5, tied with Pittsburgh in 4th.  They went 3-0-0 this week, defeating 10th-ranked St. Louis, 27th-ranked New Jersey, and 19th-ranked Winnipeg.  Their unblemished week earned them 18 rating points, moving them all the way from 9th in our ratings last week up to a tie for 4th with Pittsburgh.

Toronto had a long run in the top 5, but after a poor week, they’ve dropped out, all the way down to 8th.  They started with a road win against 16th-ranked Washington, but then lost their next two, to 30th-ranked Buffalo and 16th-ranked Vancouver, resulting in a drop of 15 rating points.  They have a chance to turn it around next week, facing 21st-ranked Columbus, 32nd-ranked Seattle, 29th-ranked Arizona, and 30th-ranked Buffalo.

The other team dropping out of the top 5 was St. Louis, who went winless this week in 3 road games, and dropped from 5th all the way down to 10th in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings.  Their losses came to the 4th-ranked Rangers, the 20th-ranked Islanders, and 27th-ranked New Jersey, this last one in overtime.

The best performing team in our rankings this week was 29th-ranked Arizona!  They won both their games at home this week, defeating top-ranked Colorado (!!!!!) and 24th-ranked Ottawa.  We awarded them 19 rating points for those two victories, which was enough to push them up two spots from 31st in our rankings.  Still, we’re giving them a less than 1% chance of making the playoffs.

The worst performing team was Ottawa.  They had four road games, and they lost them all in regulation time.  Those losses came to Tampa Bay (ranked 3rd), Florida (7th), Arizona (29th), and Vegas (11th).  Obviously, a road trip to warmer climes did not agree with them. 

And there was a change at the bottom of the rankings!  After being lowest-ranked for weeks on end, Montreal has climbed up to 31st!  They had the pleasure of a Western Canadian road trip, playing Winnipeg, Calgary, and Edmonton.  They started with a loss to 19th-ranked Winnipeg, but then beat 6th-ranked Calgary in overtime and 16th-ranked Edmonton in regulation.  This earned them 10 rating points, which pushed them back over that 1400 mark, up to 1402, and past Seattle.

Seattle now sits in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings cellar.  They went 1-2-0 this week, beating 14th-ranked Nashville at home, then losing to 16th-ranked Washington and 2nd-ranked Carolina.  Despite one win and two losses, we awarded them 1 additional rating point, but that wasn’t enough to keep them from being passed by the Canadiens.

The top 5

1. Colorado Avalanche (1617, ▼9)

Record: 40-11-5, 1st in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 45% (▼7)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 17% (▼2)

Last week: 1-1-1

• March 1: Won 5-3 vs. New York Islanders (20th, 1482)
• March 3: Lost 2-1 @ Arizona Coyotes (29th, 1413)
• March 5: Lost in OT 4-3 vs. Calgary Flames (6th, 1574)

Next week:

• March 7: @ New York Islanders (20th, 1482)
• March 8: @ New Jersey Devils (27th, 1414)
• March 10: @ Carolina Hurricanes (2nd, 1592)
• March 13: vs. Calgary Flames (6th, 1574)

2. Carolina Hurricanes (1592, ▼10)

Record: 39-12-5, 1st in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 25% (▼3)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▼2)

Last week: 2-1-1

• March 1: Lost in OT 4-3 @ Detroit Red Wings (25th, 1426)
• March 3: Lost 4-0 @ Washington Capitals (16th, 1516)
• March 4: Won in OT 3-2 vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (4th, 1575)
• March 6: Won 3-2 vs. Seattle Kraken (32nd, 1397)

Next week:

• March 10: vs. Colorado Avalanche (1st, 1617)
• March 12: vs. Philadelphia Flyers (27th, 1414)
• March 13: @ Pittsburgh Penguins (4th, 1575)

3. Tampa Bay Lightning (1586, ▲4)

Record: 37-12-6, 1st in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 13% (▲4)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲1)

Last week: 3-1-0

• March 1: Won 5-2 vs. Ottawa Senators (24th, 1436)
• March 3: Lost 5-1 vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (4th, 1575)
• March 4: Won 3-1 vs. Detroit Red Wings (25th, 1426)
• March 6: Won 6-3 @ Chicago Blackhawks (25th, 1426)

Next week:

• March 8: @ Winnipeg Jets (19th, 1495)
• March 10: @ Calgary Flames (6th, 1574)
• March 12: @ Edmonton Oilers (16th, 1516)
• March 13: @ Vancouver Canucks (16th, 1516)

4 (tie). New York Rangers ▲5 (1575, ▲18)

Record: 36-15-5, 2nd in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99% (▲1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 2% (▲1)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲2)

Last week: 3-0-0

• March 2: Won 5-3 vs. St. Louis Blues (10th, 1557)
• March 4: Won 3-1 vs. New Jersey Devils (27th, 1414)
• March 6: Won 4-1 @ Winnipeg Jets (19th, 1495)

Next week:

• March 8: @ Minnesota Wild (13th, 1525)
• March 10: @ St. Louis Blues (10th, 1557)
• March 12: @ Dallas Stars (14th, 1517)

4 (tie). Pittsburgh Penguins ▲3 (1575, ▲10)

Record: 34-14-9, 3rd in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99% (▲1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 1%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲1)

Last week: 1-0-1

• March 3: Won 5-1 @ Tampa Bay Lightning (3rd, 1586)
• March 4: Lost in OT 3-2 @ Carolina Hurricanes (2nd, 1592)

Next week:

• March 8: vs. Florida Panthers (7th, 1569)
• March 11: vs. Vegas Golden Knights (11th, 1535)
• March 13: vs. Carolina Hurricanes (2nd, 1592)

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

Overall Ratings

 1       Colorado Avalanche            1617 (▼9)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           1592 (▼10)
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning           1586 (▲4)
 4 (tie) New York Rangers (▲5)         1575 (▲18)
 4 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲3)      1575 (▲10)
 6       Calgary Flames                1574 (▲6)
 7       Florida Panthers (▲1)         1569 (▲9)
 8       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼4)      1562 (▼15)
 9       Boston Bruins (▲1)            1559 (▲6)
10       St. Louis Blues (▼5)          1557 (▼18)
11 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        1535 (▼9)
11 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲2)     1535 (▲9)
13       Minnesota Wild (▼2)           1525 (▼20)
14 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲4)             1517 (▲18)
14 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲1)      1517 (▼2)
16 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼2)          1516 (▼6)
16 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        1516 (▲9)
16 (tie) Washington Capitals           1516 (▲7)
19       Winnipeg Jets                 1495 (▼3)
20       New York Islanders            1482 (▼3)
21       Columbus Blue Jackets         1473 (▲7)
22       Anaheim Ducks                 1465 (▲1)
23       San Jose Sharks (▲1)          1440 (▼11)
24       Ottawa Senators (▼1)          1436 (▼22)
25 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            1426 (▼11)
25 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        1426 (▼5)
27 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1)        1414 (▲1)
27 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           1414 (▼5)
29       Arizona Coyotes (▲2)          1413 (▲19)
30       Buffalo Sabres (▼1)           1411 (▲15)
31       Montreal Canadiens (▲1)       1402 (▲10)
32       Seattle Kraken (▼3)           1397 (▲1)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           74% (▼11)
 2       New York Rangers              17% (▲9)
 3       Pittsburgh Penguins           8% (▲1)
 4 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         <1%
 4 (tie) New York Islanders            <1%
 4 (tie) New Jersey Devils             <1%
 4 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1%
 4 (tie) Washington Capitals           <1%

Atlantic Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           46% (▲4)
 2       Florida Panthers              40% (▲10)
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           11% (▼15)
 4       Boston Bruins                 3% (▲1)
 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
 5 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            97% (▲4)
 2       St. Louis Blues               2% (▼3)
 3       Minnesota Wild                1% (▼1)
 4 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1%
 4 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%
 4 (tie) Dallas Stars                  <1%
 4 (tie) Nashville Predators           <1%
 4 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Calgary Flames                84% (▲12)
 2       Los Angeles Kings             9% (▼8)
 3       Vegas Golden Knights          5% (▼1)
 4       Edmonton Oilers               2% (▼2)
 5 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            <1%
 5 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1)          <1%
 5 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲1)           <1%
 5 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             <1% (▼1)

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           >99%
 1 (tie) New York Rangers (▲1)         >99% (▲1)
 1 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      >99% (▲1)
 4       Washington Capitals           87% (▲4)
 5       Columbus Blue Jackets         10% (▼1)
 6       New York Islanders            3% (▼4)
 7 (tie) New Jersey Devils             <1%
 7 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1%

Atlantic Division

 1 (tie) Florida Panthers              >99%
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           >99%
 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           >99%
 4       Boston Bruins                 99% (▲1)
 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲2)           <1%
 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲2)       <1%
 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1% (▼1)

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            >99%
 2       St. Louis Blues               96% (▼3)
 3       Minnesota Wild                85% (▼9)
 4       Dallas Stars (▲1)             80% (▲23)
 5       Nashville Predators (▼1)      74% (▼2)
 6       Winnipeg Jets                 8% (▼5)
 7 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1%
 7 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Calgary Flames                99%
 2       Los Angeles Kings             85% (▼3)
 3       Vegas Golden Knights          78% (▲9)
 4       Edmonton Oilers               50% (▼10)
 5       Vancouver Canucks             32% (▲5)
 6       Anaheim Ducks                 11% (▼1)
 7       San Jose Sharks               1% (▼4)
 8       Seattle Kraken                <1%

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Colorado Avalanche            45% (▼7)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           25% (▼3)
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning           13% (▲4)
 4       Florida Panthers              10% (▲5)
 5 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲1)           2% (▲1)
 5 (tie) New York Rangers (▲1)         2% (▲1)
 7 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1)      1%
 7 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼2)      1% (▼3)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            17% (▼2)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           10% (▼2)
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning           9% (▲1)
 4       Calgary Flames                8% (▲1)
 5 (tie) New York Rangers (▲3)         7% (▲2)
 5 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2)      7% (▲1)
 7       Florida Panthers (▲1)         6% (▲1)
 8 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲2)            5% (▲1)
 8 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼4)          5% (▼2)
 8 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼4)      5% (▼2)
11 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        3% (▼1)
11 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼1)           3% (▼1)
11 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲2)     3% (▲1)
14 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲3)             2% (▲1)
14 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          2%
14 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼1)      2%
14 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼1)      2%
18       Vancouver Canucks (▼1)        1%
19 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 <1%
19 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1%
19 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
19 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%
19 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         <1%
19 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
19 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
19 (tie) New York Islanders            <1%
19 (tie) New Jersey Devils             <1%
19 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%
19 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1%
19 (tie) San Jose Sharks               <1%
19 (tie) Seattle Kraken                <1%
19 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 <1%

 

We have a new team in the Top 5 of the McDonald NHL Power Ratings this week!  St. Louis had a strong week, going 3-0-0, and in the process picked up 15 rating points and jumped from 10th in last week’s rankings to 5th this week.  They didn’t play strong teams, 27th-ranked Philadelphia, 29th-ranked Buffalo, and 25th-ranked Chicago, but they did win all three games, with two of them on the road.  They are 2nd in the Central Division now, and we’re now giving them a 99% chance of making the playoffs, and a 7% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.

Colorado remains the top-ranked team in the league, as they went 3-1-0 this week.  They started the week off with a loss in Boston to the 10th-ranked Bruins, but followed it up with wins against 26th-ranked Detroit, 19th-ranked Winnipeg, and 13th-ranked Vegas.  They lead the Central Division, actually the entire league, and we’re now giving them a better than even chance of winning the President’s Trophy, with a 52% chance, up from 41% last week.  They continue to be the favourites to win the Stanley Cup, now up to 19% from 16% last week.

Once again, Carolina is the second ranked team in our Power Ratings.  They picked up 6 rating points this week to cross that 1600 rating point mark, and are our 2nd pick for both the President’s Trophy (28%) and Stanley Cup (12%).  They won all three of their games this week, with an overtime win against 27th-ranked Philadelphia, a shutout against 21st-ranked Columbus, and a tight 4-3 victory over 14th-ranked Edmonton.

Two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay is ranked third this week, moving up two spots after going 2-0-0, with victories over 14th-ranked Edmonton and 15th-ranked Nashville.  That second game of the week was played outdoors in Nashville on Saturday evening in front of a crowd of 68,619 fans at Nissan Stadium.  The temperature was 4 degrees, so it was a beautiful night for hockey!

Toronto remains in 4th spot in our rankings, despite having gone 2-1-1 this week.  They started the week off with a classic Canadiens vs. Leafs game, but coming out short in a 5-2 decision to lowest-ranked Montreal.  They followed that up with an overtime loss to 21st-ranked Columbus, but then turned it around and won their last two games of the week against 11th-ranked Minnesota and 26th-ranked Detroit.  The game against Detroit ended up 10-7!  Toronto led 7-2 going into the 3rd period, but gave up a quick 4 goals to make it 7-6, but then shut the door with 3 unanswered goals to end the game.  Mitch Marner scored 4 goals for the Leafs.

Dropping out of the top 5 was Florida, who had the worst week in the league, going 0-3-0 with all their games this week being at home.  They lost to 15th-ranked Nashville, 21st-ranked Columbus, and 14th-ranked Edmonton, and as a result, our team of experts have taken away a whopping 30 rating points!  We’re still giving them a greater than 99% chance of making the playoffs, but we’ve dropped their chances of winning the President’s Trophy from 26% all the way down to 5%.  They do still lead the Atlantic Division, but only one point up on Tampa Bay, with Tampa Bay having played two less games than the Panthers.

Another notable team this week was Calgary.  They went 2-1-0 this week, and moved up from 8th to 6th in our rankings, but what was most notable was that they had a 10 game winning streak!  That came to an end in a 7-1 loss to the Canucks in Vancouver, but they started another winning streak their next game, defeating Minnesota.

A couple other outstanding teams this week were Vancouver and Los Angeles, both going 3-0-0 to vastly improve their rating points.  Vancouver beat 29th-ranked Seattle, 6th-ranked Calgary, and the 9th-ranked New York Rangers, gaining 23 rating points and moving from 19th to 17th in the rankings.  Their chances of making the playoffs jumped from 12% all the way up to 27%; still a ways to go, but definitely doable.  Los Angeles didn’t have as hard opponents, as they beat 31st-ranked Arizona, 22nd-ranked Anaheim, and 20th-ranked New York Islanders.  This earned them 18 rating points, moving them up one spot in our rankings to 12th.  We’re now giving them an 88% chance of making the playoffs, up from 72% last week.

And the biggest surprise of the week was worst-in-the-league Montreal!  They won all three of their games this week, including a 5-2 victory over 4th-ranked Toronto.  They also beat 29th-ranked Buffalo and 23rd-ranked Ottawa.  This gained them 29 rating points, but they’re still ranked last in the league, and we’re giving them less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs, but if they keep winning games, you never know!  Well, I think we do know, but they can dream.

The top 5

1. Colorado Avalanche (1626, ▲7)

Record: 39-10-4, 1st in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 52% (▲11)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 19% (▲3)

Last week: 3-1-0

• February 21: Lost 5-1 @ Boston Bruins (10th, 1553)
• February 23: Won 5-2 @ Detroit Red Wings (26th, 1431)
• February 25: Won 6-3 vs. Winnipeg Jets (19th, 1498)
• February 26: Won 3-2 @ Vegas Golden Knights (13th, 1526)

Next week:

• March 1: vs. New York Islanders (20th, 1485)
• March 3: @ Arizona Coyotes (31st, 1394)
• March 5: vs. Calgary Flames (6th, 1568)

2. Carolina Hurricanes (1602, ▲6)

Record: 37-11-4, 1st in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 28% (▲12)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 12% (▲1)

Last week: 3-0-0

• February 21: Won in OT 4-3 @ Philadelphia Flyers (27th, 1419)
• February 25: Won 4-0 vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (21st, 1466)
• February 27: Won 2-1 vs. Edmonton Oilers (14th, 1522)

Next week:

• March 1: @ Detroit Red Wings (26th, 1431)
• March 3: @ Washington Capitals (16th, 1509)
• March 4: vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (7th, 1565)
• March 6: vs. Seattle Kraken (29th, 1396)

3. Tampa Bay Lightning ▲2 (1582, ▲13)

Record: 34-11-6, 2nd in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 9% (▲4)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲2)

Last week: 2-0-0

• February 23: Won 5-3 vs. Edmonton Oilers (14th, 1522)
• February 26: Won 3-2 @ Nashville Predators (15th, 1519)

Next week:

• March 1: vs. Ottawa Senators (23rd, 1458)
• March 3: vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (7th, 1565)
• March 4: vs. Detroit Red Wings (26th, 1431)
• March 6: @ Chicago Blackhawks (25th, 1437)

4. Toronto Maple Leafs (1577)

Record: 34-14-4, 3rd in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 4% (▼1)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7%

Last week: 2-1-1

• February 21: Lost 5-2 @ Montreal Canadiens (32nd, 1392)
• February 22: Lost in OT 4-3 @ Columbus Blue Jackets (21st, 1466)
• February 24: Won 3-1 vs. Minnesota Wild (11th, 1545)
• February 26: Won 10-7 @ Detroit Red Wings (26th, 1431)

Next week:

• February 28: @ Washington Capitals (16th, 1509)
• March 2: vs. Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1396)
• March 5: vs. Vancouver Canucks (17th, 1507)

5. St. Louis Blues ▲5 (1575, ▲15)

Record: 32-14-6, 2nd in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 99% (▲3)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 1% (▲1)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲2)

Last week: 3-0-0

• February 22: Won 4-1 @ Philadelphia Flyers (27th, 1419)
• February 25: Won 5-3 vs. Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1396)
• February 27: Won 4-0 @ Chicago Blackhawks (25th, 1437)

Next week:

• March 2: @ New York Rangers (9th, 1557)
• March 5: @ New York Islanders (20th, 1485)
• March 6: @ New Jersey Devils (28th, 1413)

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

Overall Ratings

 1       Colorado Avalanche            1626 (▲7)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           1602 (▲6)
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning (▲2)      1582 (▲13)
 4       Toronto Maple Leafs           1577
 5       St. Louis Blues (▲5)          1575 (▲15)
 6       Calgary Flames (▲2)           1568 (▲3)
 7       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2)      1565 (▲2)
 8       Florida Panthers (▼5)         1560 (▼30)
 9       New York Rangers (▼3)         1557 (▼11)
10       Boston Bruins (▲2)            1553 (▲12)
11       Minnesota Wild (▼4)           1545 (▼21)
12       Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        1544 (▲18)
13       Vegas Golden Knights (▼2)     1526 (▼16)
14       Edmonton Oilers               1522 (▼2)
15       Nashville Predators (▲1)      1519 (▲2)
16       Washington Capitals (▼2)      1509 (▼15)
17       Vancouver Canucks (▲2)        1507 (▲23)
18       Dallas Stars                  1499 (▲5)
19       Winnipeg Jets (▼2)            1498 (▼2)
20       New York Islanders (▲1)       1485 (▲10)
21       Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    1466 (▲2)
22       Anaheim Ducks (▼2)            1464 (▼16)
23       Ottawa Senators               1458 (▼1)
24       San Jose Sharks               1451 (▲1)
25       Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       1437
26       Detroit Red Wings (▼1)        1431 (▼11)
27       Philadelphia Flyers           1419 (▲7)
28       New Jersey Devils (▲2)        1413 (▲5)
29 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▼2)           1396 (▼16)
29 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▼2)           1396 (▼16)
31       Arizona Coyotes               1394 (▼2)
32       Montreal Canadiens            1392 (▲29)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           85% (▲17)
 2       New York Rangers              8% (▼13)
 3       Pittsburgh Penguins           7% (▼3)
 4 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    <1%
 4 (tie) New York Islanders (▲1)       <1%
 4 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1)        <1%
 4 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      <1%
 4 (tie) Washington Capitals           <1% (▼1)

Atlantic Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning (▲2)      42% (▲25)
 2       Florida Panthers (▼1)         30% (▼33)
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      26% (▲7)
 4       Boston Bruins                 2% (▲1)
 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
 5 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            93% (▲8)
 2       St. Louis Blues (▲1)          5% (▲1)
 3       Minnesota Wild (▼1)           2% (▼9)
 4 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1%
 4 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%
 4 (tie) Dallas Stars                  <1%
 4 (tie) Nashville Predators           <1%
 4 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Calgary Flames                72% (▲4)
 2       Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        17% (▲9)
 3       Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     6% (▼10)
 4       Edmonton Oilers               4% (▼3)
 5       Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        1% (▲1)
 6 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼1)            <1% (▼1)
 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks               <1%
 6 (tie) Seattle Kraken                <1%

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           >99%
 2 (tie) New York Rangers (▼1)         99% (▼1)
 2 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      99%
 4       Washington Capitals           83% (▼8)
 5       Columbus Blue Jackets         11% (▲1)
 6       New York Islanders            7% (▲2)
 7 (tie) New Jersey Devils             <1%
 7 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1%

Atlantic Division

 1 (tie) Florida Panthers              >99%
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           >99%
 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           >99%
 4       Boston Bruins                 98% (▲6)
 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             1% (▼2)
 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1)          1%
 7 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
 7 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            >99%
 2       St. Louis Blues (▲1)          99% (▲3)
 3       Minnesota Wild (▼1)           94% (▼5)
 4       Nashville Predators           76% (▲5)
 5       Dallas Stars                  57% (▲10)
 6       Winnipeg Jets                 13% (▼9)
 7 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1%
 7 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Calgary Flames                99% (▲1)
 2       Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        88% (▲16)
 3       Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     69% (▼16)
 4       Edmonton Oilers               60% (▼7)
 5       Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        27% (▲15)
 6       Anaheim Ducks (▼1)            12% (▼13)
 7       San Jose Sharks               5% (▼1)
 8       Seattle Kraken                <1%

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Colorado Avalanche            52% (▲11)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      28% (▲12)
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      9% (▲4)
 4       Florida Panthers (▼2)         5% (▼21)
 5       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      4% (▼1)
 6 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲2)           1%
 6 (tie) New York Rangers              1% (▼1)
 6 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2)      1%
 6 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲4)          1% (▲1)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            19% (▲3)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           12% (▲1)
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning (▲3)      8% (▲2)
 4 (tie) Calgary Flames                7%
 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲6)          7% (▲2)
 4 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           7%
 7       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1)      6%
 8 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼5)         5% (▼4)
 8 (tie) New York Rangers (▼2)         5% (▼1)
10 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲2)            4% (▲1)
10 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲2)        4% (▲1)
10 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼4)           4% (▼2)
13 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          2% (▼1)
13 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲3)      2%
13 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼2)     2% (▼2)
13 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼1)      2% (▼1)
17 (tie) Dallas Stars                  1%
17 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲3)        1% (▲1)
19 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼2)            <1% (▼1)
19 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲1)          <1%
19 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           <1%
19 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       <1%
19 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    <1%
19 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        <1%
19 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲1)       <1%
19 (tie) New York Islanders (▲1)       <1%
19 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1)        <1%
19 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1)          <1%
19 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      <1%
19 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1)          <1%
19 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲1)           <1%
19 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼2)            <1% (▼1)

 

I hate getting these Monday morning reports out later in the week, but unfortunately, sometimes life intervenes.  Anyways, better late than never, I guess!

There was only one team change in the top 5 this week, with Pittsburgh having a disastrous week, worst in the league, and dropping from 3rd all the way to down to 9th!  Their only win of the week was an overtime win against 27th-ranked Philadelphia.  Besides that game, they had a tough schedule, with losses to 4th-ranked Toronto and 2nd-ranked Carolina.  But, if you’re going to be in the top 5, you need to be able to win the occasional game against the top-5 teams!

Colorado remains in 1st.  They went 2-1-0 this week, losing at home to 18th-ranked Dallas but winning two road games against 11th-ranked Vegas and 27th-ranked Buffalo.  This left them with the same number of rating points at 1619, and they’re still the only team rated over 1600.  They did see their chances of winning the President’s Trophy drop from 48% to 41%, and their chance of winning the Stanley Cup drop from 17% to 16%, but they’re still seen as the most likely to succeed.

Carolina remains in 2nd spot in our rankings, but they’ve closed the gap after a 2-0-1 week. They lost in overtime to 3rd-ranked Florida, then beat both 16th-ranked Nashville and 9th-ranked Pittsburgh.

With Pittsburgh’s bad week, Florida moved up from 4th into 3rd.  They went 3-0-0 this week, beating 2nd-ranked Carolina in overtime, and 7th-ranked Minnesota and 26th-ranked Chicago in regulation time.

Also moving up due to Pittsburgh’s drop was Toronto.  They went 2-1-0, beating 27th-ranked Seattle and 9th-ranked Pittsburgh, but lost their last game of the week to 10th-ranked St. Louis.

Rounding out the top 5 is Tampa Bay, who moved up from 8th to regain a spot in the top 5.  They had a quiet week, with only a single game.  They won it, on the road, against 30th-ranked New Jersey.  It seems like a big move for a single win over a crappy team, but that’s just an indication of how close teams 5 through 10 are ranked, with #5 Tampa Bay sitting at 1569 rating points, and #10 St. Louis having 1560 points.

Edmonton had the best week in our ratings.  They had a very busy week, playing 5 games, 4 of which they won, with 3 of those victories coming on the road.  With the strong showing, we’ve calculated that their chances of making the playoffs have jumped from 43% all the way up to 67%, a huge jump in a single week!  They’ve got a tough week coming up, though, with games against Tampa Bay, Florida, and Carolina, all top 5 teams.

Just down Highway 2, Calgary also had a good week, winning all three of their games and extending their winning streak to 9 games!  The games were against weaker teams, though, beating 22nd-ranked Columbus, 20th-ranked Anaheim, and 27th-ranked Seattle.As a result, we only awarded them an additional 14 rating points, still good enough to move them up to 8th.

The top 5

1. Colorado Avalanche (1619)

Record: 36-9-4, 1st in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 41% (▼7)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 16% (▼1)

Last week: 2-1-0

• February 15: Lost 4-1 vs. Dallas Stars (18th, 1494)
• February 16: Won 2-0 @ Vegas Golden Knights (11th, 1542)
• February 19: Won 5-3 @ Buffalo Sabres (27th, 1412)

Next week:

• February 21: @ Boston Bruins (12th, 1541)
• February 23: @ Detroit Red Wings (25th, 1442)
• February 25: vs. Winnipeg Jets (17th, 1500)
• February 26: @ Vegas Golden Knights (11th, 1542)

2. Carolina Hurricanes (1596, ▲12)

Record: 34-11-4, 1st in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 16% (▲3)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 11% (▲2)

Last week: 2-0-1

• February 16: Lost in OT 3-2 vs. Florida Panthers (3rd, 1590)
• February 18: Won 5-3 vs. Nashville Predators (16th, 1517)
• February 20: Won 4-3 @ Pittsburgh Penguins (9th, 1563)

Next week:

• February 21: @ Philadelphia Flyers (27th, 1412)
• February 25: vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (22nd, 1464)
• February 27: vs. Edmonton Oilers (14th, 1524)

3. Florida Panthers ▲1 (1590, ▲14)

Record: 35-10-5, 1st in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 26% (▲12)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲1)

Last week: 3-0-0

• February 16: Won in OT 3-2 @ Carolina Hurricanes (2nd, 1596)
• February 18: Won 6-2 @ Minnesota Wild (7th, 1566)
• February 20: Won 5-2 @ Chicago Blackhawks (26th, 1437)

Next week:

• February 22: vs. Nashville Predators (16th, 1517)
• February 24: vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (22nd, 1464)
• February 26: vs. Edmonton Oilers (14th, 1524)

4. Toronto Maple Leafs ▲1 (1577, ▲3)

Record: 32-13-3, 3rd in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 5% (▼1)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7%

Last week: 2-1-0

• February 14: Won 6-2 @ Seattle Kraken (27th, 1412)
• February 17: Won 4-1 vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (9th, 1563)
• February 19: Lost 6-3 vs. St. Louis Blues (10th, 1560)

Next week:

• February 21: @ Montreal Canadiens (32nd, 1363)
• February 22: @ Columbus Blue Jackets (22nd, 1464)
• February 24: vs. Minnesota Wild (7th, 1566)
• February 26: @ Detroit Red Wings (25th, 1442)

5. Tampa Bay Lightning ▲3 (1569, ▲5)

Record: 32-11-6, 2nd in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 5%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6%

Last week: 1-0-0

• February 15: Won 6-3 @ New Jersey Devils (30th, 1408)

Next week:

• February 23: vs. Edmonton Oilers (14th, 1524)
• February 26: @ Nashville Predators (16th, 1517)

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

Overall Ratings

 1       Colorado Avalanche            1619
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           1596 (▲12)
 3       Florida Panthers (▲1)         1590 (▲14)
 4       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1)      1577 (▲3)
 5       Tampa Bay Lightning (▲3)      1569 (▲5)
 6       New York Rangers (▲1)         1568 (▲2)
 7       Minnesota Wild (▼1)           1566 (▼4)
 8       Calgary Flames (▲1)           1565 (▲14)
 9       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼6)      1563 (▼19)
10       St. Louis Blues (▲1)          1560 (▲12)
11       Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     1542 (▼1)
12       Boston Bruins (▼2)            1541 (▼8)
13       Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        1526 (▼2)
14 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲3)          1524 (▲23)
14 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲1)      1524 (▲15)
16       Nashville Predators (▼3)      1517 (▼14)
17       Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            1500 (▼5)
18       Dallas Stars (▲1)             1494 (▲2)
19       Vancouver Canucks (▼1)        1484 (▼9)
20       Anaheim Ducks                 1480 (▼2)
21       New York Islanders            1475 (▼3)
22       Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2)    1464 (▲9)
23       Ottawa Senators               1459 (▼3)
24       San Jose Sharks (▼2)          1450 (▼15)
25       Detroit Red Wings             1442 (▼1)
26       Chicago Blackhawks            1437 (▼3)
27 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           1412 (▼10)
27 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲2)      1412 (▼2)
27 (tie) Seattle Kraken                1412 (▼14)
30       New Jersey Devils             1408 (▼5)
31       Arizona Coyotes               1396 (▲3)
32       Montreal Canadiens            1363 (▲6)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           68% (▲13)
 2       New York Rangers (▲1)         21% (▲1)
 3       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1)      10% (▼14)
 4       Washington Capitals           1%
 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         <1%
 5 (tie) New York Islanders            <1%
 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils             <1%
 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1%

Atlantic Division

 1       Florida Panthers              63% (▲15)
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs           19% (▼9)
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning           17% (▼6)
 4       Boston Bruins                 1% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
 5 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            85% (▲3)
 2       Minnesota Wild                11% (▼4)
 3       St. Louis Blues               4% (▲2)
 4 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲1)          <1%
 4 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       <1%
 4 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲1)             <1%
 4 (tie) Nashville Predators           <1% (▼1)
 4 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Calgary Flames                68% (▲14)
 2       Vegas Golden Knights          16% (▼10)
 3       Los Angeles Kings             8% (▼4)
 4       Edmonton Oilers               7% (▲3)
 5       Anaheim Ducks                 1% (▼1)
 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks               <1% (▼1)
 6 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲2)           <1%
 6 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             <1% (▼1)

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           >99%
 1 (tie) New York Rangers (▲2)         >99% (▲1)
 3       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼2)      99% (▼1)
 4       Washington Capitals           91% (▲8)
 5       Columbus Blue Jackets         10%
 6       New York Islanders            5% (▼4)
 7 (tie) New Jersey Devils             <1%
 7 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1%

Atlantic Division

 1 (tie) Florida Panthers              >99%
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           >99%
 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           >99%
 4       Boston Bruins                 92% (▼1)
 5       Detroit Red Wings             3% (▼1)
 6       Ottawa Senators               1% (▼1)
 7 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
 7 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            >99%
 2       Minnesota Wild                99%
 3       St. Louis Blues               96% (▲5)
 4       Nashville Predators           71% (▼12)
 5       Dallas Stars                  47% (▲6)
 6       Winnipeg Jets                 22% (▼8)
 7 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1%
 7 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Calgary Flames                98% (▲4)
 2       Vegas Golden Knights          85%
 3       Los Angeles Kings             72% (▲3)
 4       Edmonton Oilers               67% (▲24)
 5       Anaheim Ducks                 25% (▼8)
 6       Vancouver Canucks             12% (▼5)
 7       San Jose Sharks               6% (▼9)
 8       Seattle Kraken                <1%

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Colorado Avalanche            41% (▼7)
 2       Florida Panthers              26% (▲12)
 3       Carolina Hurricanes           16% (▲3)
 4 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲2)      5%
 4 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           5% (▼1)
 6 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼2)           2% (▼4)
 6 (tie) New York Rangers (▲2)         2%
 8 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲1)           1%
 8 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1)      1% (▼2)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            16% (▼1)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           11% (▲2)
 3       Florida Panthers (▲1)         9% (▲1)
 4 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲5)           7% (▲2)
 4 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1)      7%
 6 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼1)           6% (▼1)
 6 (tie) New York Rangers (▲1)         6%
 6 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼4)      6% (▼3)
 6 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      6%
10       St. Louis Blues               5% (▲1)
11       Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     4%
12 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼2)            3% (▼1)
12 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲3)          3% (▲1)
12 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        3%
12 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲3)      3% (▲1)
16       Nashville Predators (▼3)      2% (▼1)
17 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 1%
17 (tie) Dallas Stars                  1%
17 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 1%
20 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲1)          <1%
20 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           <1%
20 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       <1%
20 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    <1%
20 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        <1%
20 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲1)       <1%
20 (tie) New York Islanders (▲1)       <1%
20 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1)        <1%
20 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1)          <1%
20 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      <1%
20 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1)          <1%
20 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲1)           <1%
20 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼3)        <1% (▼1)

 

Happy Valentine’s Day!  Nothing says “I love you” like a fresh McDonald NHL Power Ratings report!

Surprisingly, there was quite a bit of movement in the rankings this week, although not much in the top 5.  Colorado remains the top-ranked team.  They had a good week going 2-0-0, beating 8th-ranked Tampa Bay at home and 19th-ranked Dallas on the road.  With those two wins, they increased their rating points by 12, up to a season-high 1619.  We now give Colorado a 48% chance of winning the President’s Trophy, up 16% from last week, and a 17% chance of winning the Stanley Cup, up 3% from last week.

Last week, Carolina sat in 2nd spot in our rankings, tied with Toronto.  For one day this week, Toronto creeped ahead of them after beating them in overtime, but both teams had bad weeks, with Toronto having a worse week, and so Carolina has stayed in 2nd place in our rankings.  With a 1-2-1 week, Carolina lost 8 rating points, but still managed to stay ahead of everyone else but Colorado.

Pittsburgh had a big week, going 3-0-0, with all three wins coming on the road.  They defeated 10th-ranked Boston, 23rd-ranked Ottawa, and 30th-ranked New Jersey, and in the process picked up 19 rating points.  That was enough to jump them from 8th all the way up to 3rd in our rankings!

Florida had the week off this week, and despite all the changes around them, they managed to stay in 4th spot.

Rounding out the top 5 is Toronto, who beat Carolina in overtime, but then lost their remaining two games in the week, both on the road.  9th-ranked Calgary and 18th-ranked Vancouver were the victors over Toronto.  Toronto lost 18 rating points this week, which is the second worst performance of the week.

The top upward-moving teams this week were Pittsburgh (19 points) and Calgary (20 points).  Calgary won all three of their games this week, all at home.  Their victories came over 12th-ranked Vegas, 5th-ranked Toronto, and 18th-ranked Vancouver.  With the three wins, they jumped in our rankings from 13th place all the way up to 9th.

The worst performing team this week was the lowest-ranked team in the league, Montreal.  After a disastrous week of losing all four of their games, to 30th-ranked New Jersey, 15th-ranked Washington, 24th-ranked Columbus, and 28th-ranked Buffalo, they lost a whopping 28 rating points, dropping down to 1357 rating points, the lowest any team has been this year.  Unsurprisingly, coach Dominique Ducharme was fired this week.

The top 5

1. Colorado Avalanche (1619, ▲12)

Record: 34-8-4, 1st in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 48% (▲16)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 17% (▲3)

Last week: 2-0-0

• February 10: Won 3-2 vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (8th, 1564)
• February 13: Won 4-0 @ Dallas Stars (19th, 1492)

Next week:

• February 15: vs. Dallas Stars (19th, 1492)
• February 16: @ Vegas Golden Knights (12th, 1543)
• February 19: @ Buffalo Sabres (28th, 1422)

2. Carolina Hurricanes (1584, ▼8)

Record: 32-11-3, 2nd in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 13% (▼9)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▼1)

Last week: 1-2-1

• February 7: Lost in OT 4-3 @ Toronto Maple Leafs (5th, 1574)
• February 8: Lost 4-3 @ Ottawa Senators (23rd, 1462)
• February 10: Won 6-0 @ Boston Bruins (10th, 1549)
• February 12: Lost 3-2 @ Minnesota Wild (6th, 1570)

Next week:

• February 16: vs. Florida Panthers (4th, 1576)
• February 18: vs. Nashville Predators (13th, 1531)
• February 20: @ Pittsburgh Penguins (3rd, 1582)

3. Pittsburgh Penguins ▲5 (1582, ▲19)

Record: 30-11-8, 1st in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99% (▲2)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 3% (▲2)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲3)

Last week: 3-0-0

• February 8: Won 4-2 @ Boston Bruins (10th, 1549)
• February 10: Won 2-0 @ Ottawa Senators (23rd, 1462)
• February 13: Won 4-2 @ New Jersey Devils (30th, 1413)

Next week:

• February 15: vs. Philadelphia Flyers (29th, 1414)
• February 17: @ Toronto Maple Leafs (5th, 1574)
• February 20: vs. Carolina Hurricanes (2nd, 1584)

4. Florida Panthers (1576)

Record: 32-10-5, 1st in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 14% (▲1)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲1)

Last week: 0-0-0

• No games scheduled

Next week:

• February 16: @ Carolina Hurricanes (2nd, 1584)
• February 18: @ Minnesota Wild (6th, 1570)
• February 20: @ Chicago Blackhawks (26th, 1440)

5. Toronto Maple Leafs ▼3 (1574, ▼18)

Record: 30-12-3, 3rd in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 6% (▼8)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▼2)

Last week: 1-2-0

• February 7: Won in OT 4-3 vs. Carolina Hurricanes (2nd, 1584)
• February 10: Lost 5-2 @ Calgary Flames (9th, 1551)
• February 12: Lost 3-2 @ Vancouver Canucks (18th, 1493)

Next week:

• February 14: @ Seattle Kraken (27th, 1426)
• February 17: vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (3rd, 1582)
• February 19: vs. St. Louis Blues (11th, 1548)

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

Overall Ratings

 1       Colorado Avalanche            1619 (▲12)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           1584 (▼8)
 3       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲5)      1582 (▲19)
 4       Florida Panthers              1576
 5       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼3)      1574 (▼18)
 6       Minnesota Wild (▼1)           1570 (▼1)
 7       New York Rangers (▼1)         1566
 8       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      1564 (▼1)
 9       Calgary Flames (▲4)           1551 (▲20)
10       Boston Bruins (▼1)            1549 (▼9)
11       St. Louis Blues (▼1)          1548 (▼6)
12       Vegas Golden Knights          1543 (▲1)
13       Nashville Predators (▼2)      1531 (▼17)
14       Los Angeles Kings             1528
15       Washington Capitals           1509 (▼14)
16       Winnipeg Jets (▲4)            1505 (▲18)
17       Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          1501 (▼12)
18       Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        1493 (▲5)
19       Dallas Stars (▼1)             1492 (▲1)
20       Anaheim Ducks (▼3)            1482 (▼10)
21       New York Islanders            1478 (▼2)
22       San Jose Sharks               1465
23       Ottawa Senators               1462 (▲13)
24       Columbus Blue Jackets         1455 (▲17)
25       Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        1443 (▲14)
26       Chicago Blackhawks (▼1)       1440 (▲5)
27       Seattle Kraken (▲1)           1426 (▲1)
28       Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           1422 (▲7)
29       Philadelphia Flyers (▼2)      1414 (▼14)
30       New Jersey Devils             1413 (▲8)
31       Arizona Coyotes               1393 (▼1)
32       Montreal Canadiens            1357 (▼28)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           55% (▼13)
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      24% (▲13)
 3       New York Rangers (▼1)         20% (▲1)
 4       Washington Capitals           1% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         <1%
 5 (tie) New York Islanders            <1%
 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils             <1%
 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1%

Atlantic Division

 1       Florida Panthers              48% (▲9)
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs           28% (▼10)
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning           23% (▲3)
 4       Boston Bruins                 2% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
 5 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            82% (▲11)
 2       Minnesota Wild                15% (▼6)
 3       St. Louis Blues               2% (▼2)
 4       Nashville Predators (▼1)      1% (▼3)
 5 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1%
 5 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%
 5 (tie) Dallas Stars                  <1%
 5 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Calgary Flames                54% (▲21)
 2       Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     26% (▼7)
 3       Los Angeles Kings             12% (▼3)
 4       Edmonton Oilers               4% (▼7)
 5       Anaheim Ducks                 2% (▼3)
 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks               1%
 6 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             1%
 8       Seattle Kraken                <1%

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           >99%
 1 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2)      >99% (▲2)
 3       New York Rangers (▼1)         99%
 4       Washington Capitals           83% (▼7)
 5       Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    10% (▲7)
 6       New York Islanders (▼1)       9% (▼1)
 7 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1)        <1%
 7 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1% (▼1)

Atlantic Division

 1 (tie) Florida Panthers              >99%
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           >99%
 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           >99%
 4       Boston Bruins                 93% (▼3)
 5       Detroit Red Wings             4% (▲2)
 6       Ottawa Senators               2% (▲1)
 7 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
 7 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            >99%
 2       Minnesota Wild                99% (▲1)
 3       St. Louis Blues               91% (▼2)
 4       Nashville Predators           83% (▼9)
 5       Dallas Stars                  41% (▲5)
 6       Winnipeg Jets                 30% (▲13)
 7 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1%
 7 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Calgary Flames (▲1)           94% (▲12)
 2       Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     85% (▲1)
 3       Los Angeles Kings             69% (▲1)
 4       Edmonton Oilers               43% (▼13)
 5       Anaheim Ducks                 33% (▼9)
 6       Vancouver Canucks             17% (▲2)
 7       San Jose Sharks (▼1)          15%
 8       Seattle Kraken                <1%

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Colorado Avalanche            48% (▲16)
 2       Florida Panthers (▲2)         14% (▲1)
 3       Carolina Hurricanes (▼1)      13% (▼9)
 4 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲1)           6% (▼1)
 4 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      6% (▼8)
 6       Tampa Bay Lightning           5% (▼1)
 7       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      3% (▲2)
 8       New York Rangers (▼1)         2%
 9       Calgary Flames (▲3)           1% (▲1)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            17% (▲3)
 2 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           9% (▼1)
 2 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲4)      9% (▲3)
 4       Florida Panthers              8% (▲1)
 5 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼1)           7%
 5 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼2)      7% (▼2)
 7 (tie) New York Rangers (▼1)         6%
 7 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      6%
 9       Calgary Flames (▲3)           5% (▲1)
10 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1)            4% (▼1)
10 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼1)          4% (▼1)
10 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲2)     4%
13 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        3%
13 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼4)      3% (▼2)
15 (tie) Edmonton Oilers               2%
15 (tie) Washington Capitals           2%
17 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 1%
17 (tie) Dallas Stars                  1%
17 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             1%
17 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 1%
21 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1%
21 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
21 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%
21 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         <1%
21 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
21 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
21 (tie) New York Islanders            <1%
21 (tie) New Jersey Devils             <1%
21 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%
21 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1%
21 (tie) San Jose Sharks               <1%
21 (tie) Seattle Kraken                <1%

 

It was a relatively quiet week in the NHL this week, as the tail end of the week had the All-Star Break.  Because of the small number of games, there weren’t a lot of changes in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings or Rankings.

Colorado remains in the top spot, with their only game this week being a 3-2 overtime loss to 31st-ranked Arizona.  As a result of that loss, they saw their chances of winning the President’s Trophy drop by 6%, down to 32%, still tops in the league.

Carolina remains in second spot, although they now share that position with Toronto.  Colorado didn’t have any games at all this week, so their rating didn’t change at all.  Toronto, meanwhile, had a back-to-back, home-and-home series with 30th-ranked New Jersey.  Toronto swept both games, including a 7-1 road victory, and picked up 8 rating points.  Toronto is creeping up in the President’s Trophy watch, with the boys in the back room now giving them a 14% chance of winning it, up from 9% last week.

Florida remains in fourth in our rankings after splitting a pair of road games, a win over 24th-ranked Columbus and a loss to the 6th-ranked New York Rangers.  Minnesota moved back into the top 5, with a shutout road victory over 25th-ranked Chicago in their single game this week.

Tampa Bay’s stay in the top 5 lasted just one week.  Although their only game this week was a 3-2 overtime victory at home against 22nd-ranked San Jose, we dropped their rating by three points, enough to drop them down to 7th.

This week’s big upward mover was Calgary.  They won both of their games on the road, a comeback 4-3 victory over 18th-ranked Dallas and a 4-2 win over 31st-ranked Arizona.  Those two wins earned them 14 ranking points, good enough to move them up to spots to 13th in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings.

The big downward mover was Chicago.  They lost both of their games this week, both at home with a 3-1 loss to 19th-ranked Vancouver and a 5-0 shutout loss to 5th-ranked Minnesota.

The top 5

1. Colorado Avalanche (1607, ▼5)

Record: 32-8-4, 1st in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 32% (▼6)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 14% (▼1)

Last week: 0-0-1

• February 1: Lost in SO 3-2 vs. Arizona Coyotes (31th, 1394)

Next week:

• February 10: vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (7th, 1565)
• February 13: @ Dallas Stars (18th, 1491)

2 (tie). Carolina Hurricanes (1592)

Record: 31-9-2, 1st in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 22%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▼1)

Last week: 0-0-0

• No games scheduled

Next week:

• February 7: @ Toronto Maple Leafs (2nd, 1592)
• February 8: @ Ottawa Senators (23th, 1449)
• February 10: @ Boston Bruins (9th, 1558)
• February 12: @ Minnesota Wild (5th, 1571)

2 (tie). Toronto Maple Leafs ▲1 (1592, ▲8)

Record: 29-10-3, 3rd in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 14% (▲5)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲1)

Last week: 2-0-0

• January 31: Won 6-4 vs. New Jersey Devils (30th, 1405)
• February 1: Won 7-1 @ New Jersey Devils (30th, 1405)

Next week:

• February 7: vs. Carolina Hurricanes (2nd, 1592)
• February 10: @ Calgary Flames (13th, 1531)
• February 12: @ Vancouver Canucks (19th, 1488)

4. Florida Panthers (1576, ▼1)

Record: 32-10-5, 1st in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 13% (▼2)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▼1)

Last week: 1-1-0

• January 31: Won 8-4 @ Columbus Blue Jackets (24th, 1438)
• February 1: Lost 5-2 @ New York Rangers (6th, 1566)

Next week:

• No games scheduled

5. Minnesota Wild ▲1 (1571, ▲6)

Record: 28-10-3, 3rd in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 98%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 5% (▼2)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7%

Last week: 1-0-0

• February 2: Won 5-0 @ Chicago Blackhawks (25th, 1435)

Next week:

• February 8: @ Winnipeg Jets (20th, 1487)
• February 12: vs. Carolina Hurricanes (2nd, 1592)

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

Overall Ratings

 1       Colorado Avalanche            1607 (▼5)
 2 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           1592
 2 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1)      1592 (▲8)
 4       Florida Panthers              1576 (▼1)
 5       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           1571 (▲6)
 6       New York Rangers (▲2)         1566 (▲7)
 7       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼2)      1565 (▼3)
 8       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1)      1563 (▼1)
 9       Boston Bruins                 1558 (▲4)
10       St. Louis Blues (▼1)          1554
11       Nashville Predators           1548 (▲6)
12       Vegas Golden Knights          1542 (▲4)
13       Calgary Flames (▲2)           1531 (▲14)
14       Los Angeles Kings             1528 (▲6)
15       Washington Capitals (▼2)      1523 (▼8)
16       Edmonton Oilers               1513 (▲9)
17       Anaheim Ducks (▲2)            1492
18       Dallas Stars (▼1)             1491 (▼8)
19       Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        1488 (▲2)
20       Winnipeg Jets (▼2)            1487 (▼8)
21       New York Islanders            1480 (▼4)
22       San Jose Sharks               1465 (▲3)
23       Ottawa Senators               1449 (▼6)
24       Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    1438 (▼6)
25       Chicago Blackhawks (▼1)       1435 (▼13)
26       Detroit Red Wings             1429 (▼6)
27       Philadelphia Flyers           1428 (▲8)
28       Seattle Kraken                1425 (▲6)
29       Buffalo Sabres (▼1)           1415 (▼4)
30       New Jersey Devils             1405 (▼8)
31       Arizona Coyotes               1394 (▼1)
32       Montreal Canadiens            1385

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           68% (▼2)
 2       New York Rangers              19% (▲4)
 3       Pittsburgh Penguins           11% (▼2)
 4       Washington Capitals           2% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         <1%
 5 (tie) New York Islanders            <1%
 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils             <1%
 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1%

Atlantic Division

 1       Florida Panthers              39% (▼7)
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs           38% (▲8)
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning           20% (▼1)
 4       Boston Bruins                 3%
 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
 5 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            71% (▼6)
 2       Minnesota Wild                21% (▲5)
 3 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲1)      4% (▲1)
 3 (tie) St. Louis Blues               4%
 5 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1%
 5 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%
 5 (tie) Dallas Stars                  <1%
 5 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 <1%

Pacific Division

 1 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲1)           33% (▲7)
 1 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          33% (▼3)
 3       Los Angeles Kings             15% (▼1)
 4       Edmonton Oilers               11%
 5       Anaheim Ducks                 5% (▼3)
 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks               1% (▼1)
 6 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             1% (▼1)
 8       Seattle Kraken                <1%

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           >99%
 2       New York Rangers              99% (▲1)
 3       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1)      98%
 4       Washington Capitals           90%
 5       New York Islanders            10% (▼2)
 6       Columbus Blue Jackets         3% (▼2)
 7       Philadelphia Flyers           1% (▲1)
 8       New Jersey Devils (▼1)        <1%

Atlantic Division

 1 (tie) Florida Panthers              >99%
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           >99%
 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           >99%
 4       Boston Bruins                 96% (▲3)
 5       Detroit Red Wings             2%
 6       Ottawa Senators (▼1)          1% (▼1)
 7 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
 7 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            >99%
 2       Minnesota Wild                98%
 3       St. Louis Blues               93%
 4       Nashville Predators           92% (▲2)
 5       Dallas Stars                  36% (▼10)
 6       Winnipeg Jets                 17% (▼8)
 7 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲1)          <1%
 7 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1% (▼2)

Pacific Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          84% (▲2)
 2       Calgary Flames                82% (▲10)
 3       Los Angeles Kings             68% (▲5)
 4       Edmonton Oilers               56% (▲6)
 5       Anaheim Ducks                 42% (▼5)
 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1)          15% (▼1)
 6 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             15% (▼2)
 8       Seattle Kraken                <1%

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Colorado Avalanche            32% (▼6)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           22%
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1)      14% (▲5)
 4       Florida Panthers (▼1)         13% (▼2)
 5       Minnesota Wild                7% (▲2)
 6       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      6% (▲1)
 7       New York Rangers              2% (▲1)
 8 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲2)            1% (▲1)
 8 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲2)      1% (▲1)
 8 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1)      1%
 8 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼1)          1%

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            14% (▼1)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           10% (▼1)
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           9% (▲1)
 4 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼1)         7% (▼1)
 4 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲1)           7%
 6 (tie) New York Rangers (▲2)         6% (▲1)
 6 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins           6%
 6 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           6%
 9 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1)            5%
 9 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲2)      5% (▲1)
 9 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼1)          5%
12 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲1)           4% (▲1)
12 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     4%
14       Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        3%
15 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          2%
15 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼2)      2% (▼1)
17 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 1%
17 (tie) Dallas Stars                  1%
17 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             1%
17 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 1%
21 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1%
21 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
21 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%
21 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         <1%
21 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
21 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
21 (tie) New York Islanders            <1%
21 (tie) New Jersey Devils             <1%
21 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%
21 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1%
21 (tie) San Jose Sharks               <1%
21 (tie) Seattle Kraken                <1%

 

We’re now past the halfway point of the NHL season, and will be heading into the All-Star Break this week.  There’s been a little more change in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings Top 5 than what we’re used to, but not much more.  Surprisingly, being only halfway through the season, according to our simulations, it looks like we’ve got most of our playoff teams identified!

Colorado remains at the top of our rankings; in fact, after going 4-0-0 this week, they picked up 10 rating points and now have the highest rating of any team this season.  They are currently first in their division, and we’re giving them a 77% chance of winning the Central.  They have a greater than 99% chance of making the playoffs, a 38% chance of winning the President’s Trophy, and a 15% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.  They are looking strong!

Carolina stays in second spot in our Rankings.  Despite going 4-0-0 this week, they only picked up 2 rating points.  All four of their games were decided by one goal, with one game going into overtime and another going to a shootout.  Still, we’re giving them a greater than 99% chance of making the playoffs, a 70% chance of winning the Metropolitan Division, a 22% chance of winning the President’s Trophy, and an 11% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.

Toronto continues to hold down the third spot in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings.  They only played twice this week, winning both of their games, with one of the games going into overtime.  Despite being third in the Atlantic Division, we’re still giving them a 30% chance of winning the division.  We’re also giving them a greater than 99% chance of making the playoffs, a 9% chance of winning the President’s Trophy, and a 0% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.  Hah, just kidding on that last one — I should really stop dumping on the Leafs.  We’re actually giving them an 8% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.

Florida moved back into the top 5 this week, currently sitting in 4th in our rankings.  They won all three of their games this week, one in overtime, picked up 10 rating points, and jumped from 6th to 4th in our rankings.  They lead the Atlantic Division, and are our favourites to win the division with a 46% chance, up from 35% last week!  They’ve got a greater than 99% chance of making the playoffs, a 15% chance of winning the President’s Trophy, and an 8% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.

Rounding out the top 5 is last year’s Stanley Cup champions, the Tampa Bay Lightning.  They went 1-0-1 last week, picking up just 3 rating points, but that was good enough to move them into the top 5.  We’re giving them a greater than 99% chance of making the playoffs, a 5% chance of winning the President’s Trophy, and a 6% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.

The reason Tampa Bay moved into the top 5 was because last week’s #4 and 5 teams, Pittsburgh and the New York Rangers, had pretty poor weeks.  Pittsburgh lost 15 rating points and dropped to 7th, as they went 1-1-2, with their sole regulation win coming against 31st-ranked Arizona.  The Rangers went 2-2-0, but our algorithms calculated a 17 rating point drop for them, pushing them down into 8th.  Moving ahead of Pittsburgh and the Rangers was Minnesota, who went 3-0-0, including a road win over the aforementioned Rangers, giving them a 20 point boost and moving them up from 10th to 6th in our rankings.

The big upward mover this week was Anaheim.  They went 3-0-1 this week, with their overtime loss coming on the road against 3rd-ranked Toronto.  This performance netted them 28 rating points, moving them up to 1492, just a little short of an average rating.  They did see their chances of making the playoffs jump from 32% to 47%.

This week’s worst performer was Montreal.  The lowly Canadiens lost all 4 of this week’s game dropping their rating down below the “pretty crappy” mark of 1400 to 1385, a 24 point drop in the week.  They were our first team this season to not make the playoffs in our set of 100,00 season simulations.  From advancing to the Stanley Cup Finals last year down to last in the league this year is pretty disappointing.  Who knows what a difference having Carey Price this year would have been?  Apparently, it would have been a big difference.

The top 5

1. Colorado Avalanche (1612, ▲10)

Record: 32-8-3, 1st in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 38% (▲9)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 15% (▲2)

Last week: 4-0-0

• January 24: Won 2-0 vs. Chicago Blackhawks (24th, 1448)
• January 26: Won in OT 4-3 vs. Boston Bruins (9th, 1554)
• January 28: Won 6-4 @ Chicago Blackhawks (24th, 1448)
• January 30: Won 4-1 vs. Buffalo Sabres (28th, 1419)

Next week:

• February 1: vs. Arizona Coyotes (31th, 1395)

2. Carolina Hurricanes (1592, ▲3)

Record: 31-9-2, 1st in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99% (▲1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 22% (▲4)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 11% (▲1)

Last week: 4-0-0

• January 25: Won in OT 4-3 vs. Vegas Golden Knights (12th, 1538)
• January 27: Won in SO 3-2 @ Ottawa Senators (23th, 1455)
• January 29: Won 2-1 vs. New Jersey Devils (30th, 1413)
• January 30: Won 2-1 vs. San Jose Sharks (22th, 1462)

Next week:

• No games scheduled (All-Star Break)

3. Toronto Maple Leafs (1584, ▲2)

Record: 27-10-3, 3rd in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99% (▲2)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 9% (▼1)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8%

Last week: 2-0-0

• January 26: Won in SO 4-3 vs. Anaheim Ducks (19th, 1492)
• January 29: Won 7-4 @ Detroit Red Wings (26th, 1435)

Next week:

• January 31: vs. New Jersey Devils (30th, 1413)
• February 1: @ New Jersey Devils (30th, 1413)

4. Florida Panthers ▲2 (1577, ▲10)

Record: 31-9-5, 1st in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99% (▲1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 15% (▲3)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲1)

Last week: 3-0-0

• January 25: Won 5-3 @ Winnipeg Jets (18th, 1495)
• January 27: Won 4-1 vs. Vegas Golden Knights (12th, 1538)
• January 29: Won in OT 5-4 vs. San Jose Sharks (22th, 1462)

Next week:

• January 31: @ Columbus Blue Jackets (25th, 1444)
• February 1: @ New York Rangers (8th, 1559)

5. Tampa Bay Lightning ▲3 (1568, ▲3)

Record: 29-10-6, 2nd in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99% (▲1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 5% (▼3)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6%

Last week: 1-0-1

• January 27: Won 3-2 vs. New Jersey Devils (30th, 1413)
• January 29: Lost in SO 3-2 vs. Vegas Golden Knights (12th, 1538)

Next week:

• February 1: vs. San Jose Sharks (22th, 1462)

• No games scheduled (All Star Break)

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

Overall Ratings

 1       Colorado Avalanche            1612 (▲10)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           1592 (▲3)
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           1584 (▲2)
 4       Florida Panthers (▲2)         1577 (▲10)
 5       Tampa Bay Lightning (▲3)      1568 (▲3)
 6       Minnesota Wild (▲4)           1565 (▲20)
 7       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼3)      1564 (▼15)
 8       New York Rangers (▼3)         1559 (▼17)
 9 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1)            1554 (▼11)
 9 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼2)          1554 (▼12)
11       Nashville Predators (▲1)      1542 (▲6)
12       Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     1538 (▲6)
13       Washington Capitals (▼2)      1531 (▼11)
14       Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        1522 (▲19)
15       Calgary Flames (▼1)           1517 (▲8)
16       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          1504 (▲6)
17       Dallas Stars (▲2)             1499 (▲14)
18       Winnipeg Jets (▼2)            1495 (▼6)
19       Anaheim Ducks (▲2)            1492 (▲28)
20       Vancouver Canucks             1486 (▲10)
21       New York Islanders (▼3)       1484 (▼10)
22       San Jose Sharks (▲1)          1462 (▲9)
23       Ottawa Senators (▼1)          1455
24       Chicago Blackhawks            1448 (▼1)
25       Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    1444 (▲10)
26       Detroit Red Wings (▼1)        1435 (▼9)
27       Philadelphia Flyers           1420 (▼11)
28 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲2)           1419 (▼1)
28 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲1)           1419 (▼6)
30       New Jersey Devils (▼2)        1413 (▼14)
31       Arizona Coyotes               1395 (▼16)
32       Montreal Canadiens            1385 (▼24)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           70% (▲23)
 2       New York Rangers              15% (▼10)
 3       Pittsburgh Penguins           13% (▼10)
 4       Washington Capitals           3% (▼3)
 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         <1%
 5 (tie) New York Islanders            <1%
 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils             <1%
 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1%

Atlantic Division

 1       Florida Panthers              46% (▲11)
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs           30%
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning           21% (▼4)
 4       Boston Bruins                 3% (▼7)
 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
 5 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            77% (▲9)
 2       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           16% (▲3)
 3       St. Louis Blues (▼1)          4% (▼10)
 4       Nashville Predators           3% (▼2)
 5 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1%
 5 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%
 5 (tie) Dallas Stars                  <1%
 5 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          36% (▼4)
 2       Calgary Flames                26%
 3       Los Angeles Kings             16% (▲2)
 4       Edmonton Oilers               11% (▲1)
 5       Anaheim Ducks                 8% (▲4)
 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks               2% (▼1)
 6 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        2%
 8       Seattle Kraken                <1%

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           >99% (▲1)
 2 (tie) New York Rangers              98%
 2 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins           98%
 4       Washington Capitals           90%
 5       New York Islanders            12% (▼4)
 6       Columbus Blue Jackets         5% (▲2)
 7 (tie) New Jersey Devils             <1% (▼1)
 7 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      <1%

Atlantic Division

 1 (tie) Florida Panthers              >99% (▲1)
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           >99% (▲1)
 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲2)      >99% (▲2)
 4       Boston Bruins                 93% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             2% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1)          2%
 7 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
 7 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            >99%
 2       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           98% (▲4)
 3       St. Louis Blues (▼1)          93% (▼4)
 4       Nashville Predators           90%
 5       Dallas Stars                  46% (▲6)
 6       Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            25% (▼15)
 7       Chicago Blackhawks            2% (▼2)
 8       Arizona Coyotes               <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          82% (▼1)
 2       Calgary Flames                72% (▲1)
 3       Los Angeles Kings             63% (▲5)
 4       Edmonton Oilers               50% (▲3)
 5       Anaheim Ducks                 47% (▲15)
 6       Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        17% (▼4)
 7       San Jose Sharks (▼1)          16% (▼6)
 8       Seattle Kraken                <1%

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Colorado Avalanche            38% (▲9)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           22% (▲4)
 3       Florida Panthers              15% (▲3)
 4       Toronto Maple Leafs           9% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲3)           5% (▲2)
 5 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           5% (▼3)
 7 (tie) New York Rangers (▼1)         1% (▼5)
 7 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1)      1% (▼5)
 7 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲1)          1% (▼2)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            15% (▲2)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           11% (▲1)
 3 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲2)         8% (▲1)
 3 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           8%
 5       Minnesota Wild (▲5)           7% (▲2)
 6 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼3)      6% (▼2)
 6 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲2)      6%
 8 (tie) Boston Bruins                 5% (▼1)
 8 (tie) New York Rangers (▼3)         5% (▼2)
 8 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼3)          5% (▼2)
11 (tie) Nashville Predators           4%
11 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          4%
13 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲1)           3%
13 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲2)        3% (▲1)
13 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼2)      3% (▼1)
16       Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          2%
17 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 1%
17 (tie) Dallas Stars                  1%
17 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             1%
17 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 1%
21 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲2)          <1%
21 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲2)           <1%
21 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲2)       <1%
21 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2)    <1%
21 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲2)        <1%
21 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲2)       <1%
21 (tie) New York Islanders (▼4)       <1% (▼1)
21 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲2)        <1%
21 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲2)          <1%
21 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲2)      <1%
21 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼4)          <1% (▼1)
21 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲2)           <1%

 

It turns out that it’s very hard to get coverage of hockey when you’re on a cruise ship in the Caribbean!  And, the internet on this ship is pretty bad, so I can’t VPN back home to watch any games.  So, I’ve been hockey-less for a little over a week now.  But, I am able to watch the Under-19 Men’s Cricket World Cup on ESPN!  Unfortunately, that’s small consolation.

But, I did get to watch NFL football this weekend!  What a great set of games!  This may have been the best weekend of NFL games in history.  3 games ended with 3 point differences, and the one that didn’t went into overtime, in what may have been the greatest football game I have ever seen!  None of my teams are still in it (none even made the playoffs), but I am cheering for Kansas City a bit, as Patrick Mahomes’ dad used to play for the Mets, and he’s one of the coaches at Fantasy Camp.  He hasn’t been at any of the camps I’ve been to, but I hope to meet him some day!

Speaking of baseball, on Sunday I noticed quite a few people on the cruise ship wearing Cardinals jerseys, T-shirts, and caps.  Like, a lot.  So, I wondered what was up, and I googled “St. Louis Cardinals cruise”, and it turns out that there’s a Cardinals cruise every year, and it’s going on on this boat!  There are four Cardinals alumni on the ship: John Tudor, Ray Lankford, Brian Jordan, and Danny Cox.  I’m not a huge Cardinals fan, but I’d probably recognize John Tudor if I ran into him.  Anyways, more information is available at https://www.mlb.com/cardinals/fans/cardinals-cruise.

But, on to hockey!  The NHL has released the updated schedule, and games are going on as usual now.  With players no longer going to the Olympics, the league is playing through their original break, and will still finish the schedule by the original end date, April 29th.  We are almost halfway through the regular season, so let’s hope COVID stays away enough to get the season done.

As seems to be the usual case lately, there’s been little change to the top 5 teams in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings again this week.  Colorado remains on top, followed closely by Carolina and Toronto.  Pittsburgh returns to the top 5, pushing Florida out, but the New York Rangers remain in the top 5.

Colorado had a 4-0-0 week, with two wins in regulation, one in overtime, and one in a shootout.  They are back over the 1600 rating point line, weighing in now at 1602 points, up 5 from last week.  In our simulations, they make the playoffs over 99% of the time, so it looks like they’re pretty much a shoe-in for the playoffs.  They are also our favourites to win the President’s Trophy, up 11% to 29% this week, and our top pick for the Stanley Cup, up 1% to 13%.

Carolina went 2-1-0 this week, picking up 4 rating points to sit at 1589.  Although they are currently 3rd in the Metropolitan Division, we’re giving them a 99% chance of making the playoffs, an 18% chance of winning the President’s Trophy, and a 10% chance of winning the Cup.

Toronto had a quiet week, with only two games, both in New York.  They lost to the 5th-ranked Rangers, but beat the 18th-ranked Islanders.  Despite splitting games against lower-ranked teams, because they were road games, we didn’t feel it was necessary to change their rating one way or the other.  They’ve got another quiet week coming up, with only 2 games on the schedule.

Pittsburgh had a good week, going 4-0-0, with 3 regulation wins and 1 shootout win.  This was good enough for them to pick up 15 rating points, pushing them back into the top 5, currently ranked 4th.  They are 2nd in the Metropolitan Division, with a 98% chance of making the playoffs.

Rounding out the top 5 are the New York Rangers, who sit in 1st in the Metropolitan Division.  They went 2-1-0 this week, beating 3rd-ranked Toronto but losing to 2nd-ranked Carolina, and they finished up the week with an easy 7-3 victory over 31st-ranked Arizona.

That Metropolitan Division is looking like a tough division, with 3 of our top 5 teams coming from there.  The Rangers, ranked 5th, are in 1st place in the division, with 58 points in 42 games; 4th-ranked Pittsburgh is in 2nd place, with 57 points in 41 games; and 2nd-ranked Carolina is in 3rd, with 56 points in 38 games.  It should be an interesting division for the rest of the season!

Florida had a bad week.  They were ranked 4th last week, but after going 2-2-0 this week with one of their wins coming in a shootout, they dropped 12 rating points down to 6th in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings.  They are still 1st in the Atlantic Division, and have a 99% chance of making the playoffs, but need to be playing better.

One of the standards I use for telling how good a team is doing is the 90% rule; if a team has a 90% chance of making the playoffs, I expect them to be pretty much in.  Right now, there are 8 teams in the Eastern Conference at or above that 90% mark, so it looks like the playoff teams are set in the East, despite the season not being quite half over!  The teams are:

 Carolina Hurricanes           99%
 Florida Panthers              99%
 Tampa Bay Lightning           99%
 New York Rangers              98%
 Pittsburgh Penguins           98%
 Toronto Maple Leafs           98%
 Boston Bruins                 94%
 Washington Capitals           90%

It’s a little different in the Western Conference.  In the Central Division, four teams are above that 90% mark, but there are none in the Pacific Division.  Those four shoe-in teams are:

 Colorado Avalanche            >99%
 St. Louis Blues               97%
 Minnesota Wild                94%
 Nashville Predators           90%

Besides these four, there are 9 teams battling it out for the remaining four playoff spots:

 Vegas Golden Knights          83%
 Calgary Flames                71%
 Los Angeles Kings             58%
 Edmonton Oilers               47%
 Dallas Stars                  40%
 Winnipeg Jets                 40%
 Anaheim Ducks                 32%
 San Jose Sharks               22%
 Vancouver Canucks             21%

Realistically, I don’t think Chicago (4% chance of making the playoffs), Arizona (<1%), and Seattle (also <1%) have any chance at all.  I’ll be keeping an eye on all these playoff races, even though it’s only almost halfway through the season.

The big movers this week were St. Louis (up) and Philadelphia (down).  St. Louis went 3-0-0, with two of those wins coming on the road.  They have been quietly moving up the rankings, and we’ve now got them ranked 7th, up 3 spots from last week.  They also picked up 20 rating points, and now sit with 1566 McDonald NHL Power Ratings points.  We’re giving them a 99% chance of making the playoffs, a 3% chance of winning the President’s Trophy (up from 1% last week), and a 7% chance of winning the Stanley Cup (up from 5%).

It was a bad week for Philadelphia, as they went 0-3-1.  They lost twice to the 18th-ranked Islanders, once in overtime, and also lost to 26th-ranked Columbus and 30th-ranked Buffalo.  With this week’s poor performance, they lost 22 rating points and now sit in 27th spot in our rankings.  We’re now giving them less than a 1% chance of making the playoffs.

I hate ending this report on a sad note, but I will.  Clark Gillies, a key member of the early 1980s Islanders teams that won 4 straight Stanley Cups, died this week at 67.  He was born in Moose Jaw and played junior hockey for the Regina Pats.  Former teammates and regular people who met him were universal in their praise for him.  I was an Islanders fan back then, and it’s always sad to hear of the loss of someone you cheered for.

The top 5

1. Colorado Avalanche (1602, ▲5)

Record: 28-8-3, 1st in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: >99% (▲1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 29% (▲11)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 13% (▲1)

Last week: 4-0-0

• January 17: Won in SO 4-3 vs. Minnesota Wild (10th, 1545)
• January 19: Won 2-0 @ Anaheim Ducks (21th, 1464)
• January 20: Won 4-1 @ Los Angeles Kings (15th, 1503)
• January 22: Won in OT 3-2 vs. Montreal Canadiens (32th, 1409)

Next week:

• January 24: vs. Chicago Blackhawks (24th, 1449)
• January 26: vs. Boston Bruins (8th, 1565)
• January 28: @ Chicago Blackhawks (24th, 1449)
• January 30: vs. Buffalo Sabres (30th, 1420)

2. Carolina Hurricanes (1589, ▲4)

Record: 27-9-2, 3rd in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 18%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▲1)

Last week: 2-1-0

• January 18: Won 7-1 @ Boston Bruins (8th, 1565)
• January 21: Won 6-3 vs. New York Rangers (5th, 1576)
• January 22: Lost 7-4 @ New Jersey Devils (28th, 1427)

Next week:

• January 25: vs. Vegas Golden Knights (13th, 1532)
• January 27: @ Ottawa Senators (22th, 1455)
• January 29: vs. New Jersey Devils (28th, 1427)
• January 30: vs. San Jose Sharks (23th, 1453)

3. Toronto Maple Leafs (1582)

Record: 25-10-3, 3rd in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 98%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 10% (▼3)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8%

Last week: 1-1-0

• January 19: Lost 6-3 @ New York Rangers (5th, 1576)
• January 22: Won 3-1 @ New York Islanders (18th, 1494)

Next week:

• January 26: vs. Anaheim Ducks (21th, 1464)
• January 29: @ Detroit Red Wings (25th, 1444)

4. Pittsburgh Penguins ▲2 (1579, ▲15)

Record: 26-10-5, 2nd in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 98% (▲6)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 6% (▲3)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲2)

Last week: 4-0-0

• January 17: Won 5-3 @ Vegas Golden Knights (13th, 1532)
• January 20: Won 6-4 vs. Ottawa Senators (22th, 1455)
• January 21: Won 5-2 @ Columbus Blue Jackets (26th, 1434)
• January 23: Won in SO 3-2 vs. Winnipeg Jets (16th, 1501)

Next week:

• January 25: vs. Arizona Coyotes (31th, 1411)
• January 27: vs. Seattle Kraken (29th, 1425)
• January 28: vs. Detroit Red Wings (25th, 1444)
• January 30: vs. Los Angeles Kings (15th, 1503)

5. New York Rangers (1576, ▲5)

Record: 27-11-4, 1st in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 98% (▲1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 6% (▼1)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7%

Last week: 2-1-0

• January 19: Won 6-3 vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (3rd, 1582)
• January 21: Lost 6-3 @ Carolina Hurricanes (2nd, 1589)
• January 22: Won 7-3 vs. Arizona Coyotes (31th, 1411)

Next week:

• January 24: vs. Los Angeles Kings (15th, 1503)
• January 27: @ Columbus Blue Jackets (26th, 1434)
• January 28: vs. Minnesota Wild (10th, 1545)
• January 30: vs. Seattle Kraken (29th, 1425)

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

Overall Ratings

 1       Colorado Avalanche            1602 (▲5)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           1589 (▲4)
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           1582
 4       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2)      1579 (▲15)
 5       New York Rangers              1576 (▲5)
 6       Florida Panthers (▼2)         1567 (▼12)
 7       St. Louis Blues (▲3)          1566 (▲20)
 8 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1)            1565 (▲4)
 8 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      1565 (▲4)
10       Minnesota Wild (▲3)           1545 (▲5)
11       Washington Capitals (▼2)      1542 (▼12)
12       Nashville Predators           1536 (▼6)
13       Vegas Golden Knights (▼2)     1532 (▼11)
14       Calgary Flames (▲1)           1509 (▲1)
15       Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        1503 (▼14)
16       Winnipeg Jets                 1501 (▼6)
17       Edmonton Oilers               1498
18       New York Islanders            1494 (▲4)
19       Dallas Stars                  1485 (▼3)
20       Vancouver Canucks             1476 (▲4)
21       Anaheim Ducks                 1464 (▲3)
22       Ottawa Senators (▲1)          1455 (▼2)
23       San Jose Sharks (▼1)          1453 (▼6)
24       Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       1449 (▼3)
25       Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        1444 (▼5)
26       Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    1434 (▼5)
27       Philadelphia Flyers (▼3)      1431 (▼22)
28       New Jersey Devils             1427 (▼6)
29       Seattle Kraken                1425 (▲12)
30       Buffalo Sabres                1420 (▲9)
31       Arizona Coyotes               1411 (▲6)
32       Montreal Canadiens            1409 (▲12)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           47% (▼2)
 2       New York Rangers              25% (▼2)
 3       Pittsburgh Penguins           23% (▲9)
 4       Washington Capitals           6% (▼4)
 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         <1%
 5 (tie) New York Islanders            <1%
 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils             <1%
 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1%

Atlantic Division

 1       Florida Panthers              35% (▼9)
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs           30% (▲2)
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning           25% (▲5)
 4       Boston Bruins                 10% (▲2)
 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
 5 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            68% (▲8)
 2       St. Louis Blues (▲2)          14% (▲3)
 3       Minnesota Wild (▼1)           13% (▼2)
 4       Nashville Predators (▼1)      5% (▼7)
 5 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲2)          <1%
 5 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲2)       <1%
 5 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲1)             <1% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 <1% (▼2)

Pacific Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          40%
 2       Calgary Flames                26% (▲4)
 3       Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        14% (▼8)
 4       Edmonton Oilers               10% (▲2)
 5       Anaheim Ducks                 4% (▲1)
 6       San Jose Sharks (▼1)          3%
 7       Vancouver Canucks             2%
 8       Seattle Kraken                <1%

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           99%
 2 (tie) New York Rangers              98% (▲1)
 2 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      98% (▲6)
 4       Washington Capitals           90%
 5       New York Islanders            16% (▲1)
 6       Columbus Blue Jackets         3% (▼2)
 7       New Jersey Devils (▲1)        1% (▼1)
 8       Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      <1% (▼3)

Atlantic Division

 1 (tie) Florida Panthers              99%
 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      99% (▲1)
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      98%
 4       Boston Bruins                 94% (▲3)
 5       Detroit Red Wings             3% (▼2)
 6       Ottawa Senators               2% (▼1)
 7 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
 7 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            >99% (▲1)
 2       St. Louis Blues (▲1)          97% (▲8)
 3       Minnesota Wild                94% (▲5)
 4       Nashville Predators (▼2)      90%
 5 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲1)             40% (▲3)
 5 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 40% (▼10)
 7       Chicago Blackhawks            4% (▼2)
 8       Arizona Coyotes               <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          83% (▼2)
 2       Calgary Flames (▲1)           71% (▲3)
 3       Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        58% (▼13)
 4       Edmonton Oilers               47% (▲3)
 5       Anaheim Ducks                 32% (▲5)
 6       San Jose Sharks               22% (▼4)
 7       Vancouver Canucks             21% (▲3)
 8       Seattle Kraken                <1%

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       29% (▲11)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           18%
 3       Florida Panthers (▼2)         12% (▼10)
 4       Toronto Maple Leafs           10% (▼3)
 5       Tampa Bay Lightning           8%
 6 (tie) New York Rangers              6% (▼1)
 6 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      6% (▲3)
 8 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1)            3%
 8 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼1)           3%
 8 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲4)          3% (▲2)
11 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼1)      1% (▼1)
11 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼1)      1% (▼1)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            13% (▲1)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           10% (▲1)
 3 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲3)      8% (▲2)
 3 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           8%
 5 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼2)         7% (▼1)
 5 (tie) New York Rangers              7%
 5 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲4)          7% (▲2)
 8 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼2)            6%
 8 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼2)      6%
10       Minnesota Wild (▼1)           5%
11 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼2)      4% (▼1)
11 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼2)     4% (▼1)
11 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼2)      4% (▼1)
14       Calgary Flames                3%
15 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          2%
15 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        2% (▼1)
17 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            1%
17 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲1)             1%
17 (tie) New York Islanders (▲1)       1%
17 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1)          1%
17 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        1%
17 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            1% (▼1)
23 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1%
23 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
23 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%
23 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         <1%
23 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
23 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
23 (tie) New Jersey Devils             <1%
23 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%
23 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1%
23 (tie) Seattle Kraken                <1%

 

There was a slight bit of movement in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings this week, but not much.  Colorado remains in top spot, but Carolina dropped from a tie for 1st down into 2nd.  Toronto remains in third, and Florida has entered the top 5 in fourth spot.  Florida pushed the Rangers down to 5th, and forced Pittsburgh back out of the top 5, who are now at 6th.

Despite being ranked at the top of our ratings for much of the season, Colorado hasn’t been in first place in the Central Division, until now.  They’ve finally taken over 1st, and remain our highest ranked team.  They went 3-0-1 this week, but only gained 5 rating points, as their victories came against Seattle, ranked 29th, and two against Arizona, ranked 31st.  Their only game against a top-half club came in a 5-4 overtime loss to 12th ranked Nashville.  But, we’re giving them a 99% chance of making the playoffs, an 18% chance of winning the President’s Trophy, and they are our favourite to win the Stanley Cup, at 12%.

Carolina dropped down to second in our rankings, after going 1-1-0 this week.  They got thumped by 27th-ranked Columbus, 6-0, but came back with a 4-1 win over 20th-ranked Vancouver.  Their game against Philadelphia was postponed due to COVID.  Despite their uneven week, we’re still giving them a 99% chance of making the playoffs.

Toronto remains 3rd in our rankings.  They had two wins against tough teams this week, beating 11th-ranked Vegas in a shootout and 10th-ranked St. Louis in a high-scoring 6-5 game.  But, then they lost 2-1 to lowly Arizona (31st).  We’ve calculated that they have a 98% chance of making the playoffs.  Our models calculate that they have an 8% chance of winning the Stanley Cup, but our team of experts has overruled our model and determined that they have a 0% chance, due to the Harold Ballard curse.  We don’t think they’ll win the Stanley Cup until they exhume Ballard’s body and rebury it in some corner in Sweden, with a pocketful of unbroken eggs.  But, that won’t ever happen, because Sweden doesn’t deserve that!

Florida, 1st in the Atlantic Division, moved into our Top 5 after a very strong week, going 3-0 and outscoring their opposition by a combined 21-5.  Their wins came against 20th-ranked Vancouver (5-2), 19th-ranked Dallas (7-1), and 27th-ranked Columbus (9-2).  They have a 99% chance of making the playoffs, and are now our favourites to win the President’s Trophy, with our models showing them winning that in 22% of our simulations, up from 13% last week!

Rounding out the top 5 this week are the New York Rangers.  They lead the Metropolitan Division, and had a 2-1-0 record on the road this week, losing to 14th-ranked Los Angeles before defeating San Jose (22nd) and Philadelphia (24th).  They have a tough week coming up, facing top 5 teams Toronto and Carolina, then facing 31st-ranked giant killers Arizona.

The top upward-movers this week were Los Angeles and Ottawa.  Los Angeles went 3-0-0 this week, gaining 22 rating points and moving up 3 spots in our rankings to 14th.  They beat the 5th-ranked Rangers and 6th-ranked Pittsburgh at home before travelling to Seattle to beat the 29th-ranked Kraken.  Ottawa only had two games this week, both on the road, and they beat 15th-ranked Edmonton and 17th-ranked Calgary.  But, this was enough to gain them 20 McDonald NHL Power Ratings rating points, and moved them up the ladder from 28th to 23rd.  But, we’re still only giving them a 3% chance of making the playoffs, up from 2% last week, so they’ve got a lot more winning to do before the season is done!

The big downward-movers this week were Seattle and Anaheim.  The Kraken lost all 4 of their games this week, and dropped 19 rating points.  They still remain ranked 29th overall, though.  Anaheim lost all 3 of their games, and our simulations now show them only having a 27% chance of making the playoffs, down from 47% last week!

On a side note, I just took a look at the schedule.  There are currently 98 games that have been postponed and need to be rescheduled.  The earliest postponed game was originally scheduled for November 18th, and the latest is January 18th.  Those schedule makers better get busy and get things updated if we’re going to have a full season of hockey!  The Leafs are probably starting to get itchy for their golf tee times!

The top 5

1. Colorado Avalanche (1597, ▲5)

Record: 24-8-3, 1st in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 99% (▲2)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 18% (▲3)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 12% (▲1)

Last week: 3-0-1

• January 10: Won 4-3 vs. Seattle Kraken (29th, 1413)
• January 11: Lost in OT 5-4 @ Nashville Predators (12th, 1542)
• January 14: Won in SO 4-3 vs. Arizona Coyotes (31th, 1405)
• January 15: Won 5-0 @ Arizona Coyotes (31th, 1405)

Next week:

• January 17: vs. Minnesota Wild (13th, 1540)
• January 19: @ Anaheim Ducks (21th, 1461)
• January 20: @ Los Angeles Kings (14th, 1517)
• January 22: vs. Montreal Canadiens (32th, 1397)

2. Carolina Hurricanes ▼1 (1585, ▼7)

Record: 25-8-2, 2nd in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 18% (▼8)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▼1)

Last week: 1-1-0

• January 11: Postponed @ Philadelphia Flyers (24th, 1453)
• January 13: Lost 6-0 vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (27th, 1439)
• January 15: Won 4-1 vs. Vancouver Canucks (20th, 1472)

Next week:

• January 18: @ Boston Bruins (7th, 1561)
• January 21: vs. New York Rangers (5th, 1571)
• January 22: @ New Jersey Devils (28th, 1433)

3. Toronto Maple Leafs (1582, ▼2)

Record: 24-9-3, 3rd in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 98%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 13% (▼1)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▼1)

Last week: 2-1-0

• January 11: Won in SO 4-3 @ Vegas Golden Knights (11th, 1543)
• January 12: Lost 2-1 @ Arizona Coyotes (31th, 1405)
• January 15: Won 6-5 @ St. Louis Blues (10th, 1546)

Next week:

• January 17: Postponed vs. New Jersey Devils (28th, 1433)
• January 19: @ New York Rangers (5th, 1571)
• January 22: @ New York Islanders (18th, 1490)

4. Florida Panthers ▲3 (1579, ▲14)

Record: 26-7-5, 1st in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 99% (▲1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 22% (▲9)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲1)

Last week: 3-0-0

• January 11: Won 5-2 vs. Vancouver Canucks (20th, 1472)
• January 14: Won 7-1 vs. Dallas Stars (19th, 1488)
• January 15: Won 9-2 vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (27th, 1439)

Next week:

• January 18: @ Calgary Flames (15th, 1508)
• January 20: @ Edmonton Oilers (17th, 1498)
• January 21: @ Vancouver Canucks (20th, 1472)
• January 23: @ Seattle Kraken (29th, 1413)

5. New York Rangers ▼1 (1571, ▲4)

Record: 25-10-4, 1st in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 97% (▲1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 7%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲1)

Last week: 2-1-0

• January 10: Lost 3-1 @ Los Angeles Kings (14th, 1517)
• January 13: Won 3-0 @ San Jose Sharks (22th, 1459)
• January 15: Won 3-2 @ Philadelphia Flyers (24th, 1453)

Next week:

• January 19: vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (3rd, 1582)
• January 21: @ Carolina Hurricanes (2nd, 1585)
• January 22: vs. Arizona Coyotes (31th, 1405)

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

Overall Ratings

 1       Colorado Avalanche            1597 (▲5)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes (▼1)      1585 (▼7)
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           1582 (▼2)
 4       Florida Panthers (▲3)         1579 (▲14)
 5       New York Rangers (▼1)         1571 (▲4)
 6       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼2)      1564 (▼3)
 7 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲4)            1561 (▲17)
 7 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲3)      1561 (▲16)
 9       Washington Capitals (▼3)      1554 (▼12)
10       St. Louis Blues (▼1)          1546 (▼4)
11       Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     1543
12       Nashville Predators (▼4)      1542 (▼10)
13       Minnesota Wild                1540 (▲5)
14       Los Angeles Kings (▲3)        1517 (▲22)
15       Calgary Flames (▼1)           1508 (▼10)
16       Winnipeg Jets                 1507 (▲7)
17       Edmonton Oilers (▼2)          1498 (▼10)
18       New York Islanders (▲1)       1490 (▼1)
19       Dallas Stars (▼1)             1488 (▼5)
20       Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        1472 (▼4)
21       Anaheim Ducks (▼1)            1461 (▼18)
22       San Jose Sharks               1459 (▼6)
23       Ottawa Senators (▲5)          1457 (▲20)
24       Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      1453 (▼11)
25       Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       1452 (▲13)
26       Detroit Red Wings (▼2)        1449
27       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼2)    1439 (▼1)
28       New Jersey Devils (▼2)        1433 (▼6)
29       Seattle Kraken                1413 (▼19)
30       Buffalo Sabres                1411 (▼1)
31       Arizona Coyotes (▲1)          1405 (▲10)
32       Montreal Canadiens (▼1)       1397 (▼2)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           49% (▼3)
 2       New York Rangers              27% (▲5)
 3       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      14% (▲2)
 4       Washington Capitals (▼1)      10% (▼4)
 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         <1%
 5 (tie) New York Islanders            <1%
 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils             <1%
 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1%

Atlantic Division

 1       Florida Panthers (▲1)         44% (▲6)
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      28% (▼11)
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning           20% (▲3)
 4       Boston Bruins                 8% (▲2)
 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
 5 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            60% (▲10)
 2       Minnesota Wild (▲2)           15% (▲2)
 3       Nashville Predators (▼1)      12% (▼7)
 4       St. Louis Blues (▼1)          11% (▼4)
 5       Winnipeg Jets                 2% (▲1)
 6       Dallas Stars (▼1)             1%
 7 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1%
 7 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          40% (▲3)
 2 (tie) Calgary Flames                22% (▼6)
 2 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲3)        22% (▲14)
 4       Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          8% (▼4)
 5 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼1)            3% (▼6)
 5 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1)          3% (▼1)
 7       Vancouver Canucks             2% (▼1)
 8       Seattle Kraken                <1%

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           99%
 2       New York Rangers              97% (▲1)
 3       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      92%
 4       Washington Capitals (▼1)      90% (▼4)
 5       New York Islanders            15% (▼4)
 6       Columbus Blue Jackets         5% (▼4)
 7       Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      3% (▼6)
 8       New Jersey Devils             2% (▼1)

Atlantic Division

 1       Florida Panthers              99% (▲1)
 2 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      98% (▲4)
 2 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      98%
 4       Boston Bruins                 91% (▲12)
 5       Detroit Red Wings             5% (▼3)
 6       Ottawa Senators               3% (▲1)
 7 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1% (▼1)
 7 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲1)       <1%

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            99% (▲2)
 2       Nashville Predators           90% (▼1)
 3 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲1)           89% (▲4)
 3 (tie) St. Louis Blues               89%
 5       Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            50% (▲9)
 6       Dallas Stars (▼1)             37% (▼5)
 7       Chicago Blackhawks            6% (▲3)
 8       Arizona Coyotes               <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          85% (▲2)
 2       Los Angeles Kings (▲3)        71% (▲27)
 3       Calgary Flames (▼1)           68% (▼6)
 4       Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          44% (▼8)
 5       Anaheim Ducks (▼1)            27% (▼20)
 6       San Jose Sharks               26% (▼1)
 7       Vancouver Canucks             18% (▼5)
 8       Seattle Kraken                <1% (▼1)

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Florida Panthers (▲3)         22% (▲9)
 2 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▼1)      18% (▼8)
 2 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            18% (▲3)
 4       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      13% (▼1)
 5       Tampa Bay Lightning (▲2)      8% (▲4)
 6       New York Rangers (▼1)         7%
 7 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲5)            3% (▲2)
 7 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲3)           3% (▲1)
 7 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins           3% (▼1)
10 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼1)      2% (▼1)
10 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼4)      2% (▼3)
12 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼2)          1% (▼1)
12 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          1%

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            12% (▲1)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           9% (▼1)
 3 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲1)         8% (▲1)
 3 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           8% (▼1)
 5       New York Rangers              7% (▲1)
 6 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲6)            6% (▲2)
 6 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1)      6%
 6 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲3)      6% (▲1)
 9 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲3)           5% (▲1)
 9 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼4)      5% (▼1)
 9 (tie) St. Louis Blues               5%
 9 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          5%
 9 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼4)      5% (▼1)
14 (tie) Calgary Flames                3%
14 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        3% (▲1)
16 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          2%
16 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            2%
18 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 1%
18 (tie) Dallas Stars                  1%
18 (tie) New York Islanders            1%
18 (tie) San Jose Sharks               1%
18 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             1%
23 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1%
23 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                <1%
23 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%
23 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         <1%
23 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             <1%
23 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
23 (tie) New Jersey Devils             <1%
23 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%
23 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           <1%
23 (tie) Seattle Kraken                <1%