McDonald CFL Power Ratings – Week 15

There’s only one week left in the CFL regular season, and playoff spots are mostly sorted out.  We know all of the playoff teams and where most of the games will be played; the only remaining question is who will finish 2nd and 3rd in the East, as Hamilton and Montreal are currently tied for 2nd spot with 7-6 records.  Also, there will be no cross-over this year!

In the West, Winnipeg will finish in first place, Saskatchewan in second, and Calgary third.  In the East, Toronto has clinched first, but we’re waiting for the results of this week to see who gets second.  Montreal is playing bottom-ranked Ottawa in Montreal on Friday, and Hamilton is hosting 2nd-ranked Saskatchewan on Saturday.  If both Montreal and Hamilton win, or they both lose, they end up with tied records (either 8-6 or 7-7), but Hamilton would be awarded second place based on the net aggregate points in the two games they played against each other.  Hamilton had beat Montreal 27-10 in Week 4, and Montreal won 23-20 in Week 9, so the aggregate points would be 47-30 in favour of Hamilton.

But let’s look at what happened this week!  There were four games, two on Friday and two on Saturday.  In the first game on Friday, Hamilton travelled to Toronto to face the first-place Argonauts.  Toronto easily defeated Hamilton, 31-12, and now have a 6-0 record at home.  That’s a good sign for the Argos, as they will host the East Final.  The victory clinched first place for Toronto.  Toronto quarterback McLeod Bethel-Thompson passed for 250 yards and a touchdown; his Hamilton counterpart, Jeremiah Masoli, passed for 326 yards but was intercepted twice.

In Friday’s late game, British Columbia hosted Calgary.  Needing a win to stay in the hunt for 2nd place in the West, which would let them host the West Semi-Final, Calgary didn’t disappoint their fans, as they defeated British Columbia 33-23.  The BC loss eliminated the Lions from playoff contention, and guaranteed Calgary a spot in the West Final.  Calgary quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell looks to be rounding into form after his injury earlier in the season, as he passed for 264 yards and three touchdowns.  In the losing cause, Lion’s QB Michel Reilly passed for 340 yards and one touchdown.

In Saturday’s early game, Winnipeg travelled to Montreal.  The Blue Bombers, the top-ranked team in the CFL, are guaranteed of winning the West Division, and so they rested a number of their starters, including quarterback Zach Collaros.  As a result, Montreal defeated Winnipeg 28-14, snapping the Bombers win streak at 9 games and putting the Alouettes in a 2nd-place tie with Hamilton in the East.  Montreal quarterback Trevor Harris passed for three touchdowns; Winnipeg 2nd-stringer Sean McGuire threw four interceptions in his first career CFL start.  With little to worry about with the passing game, Montreal was able to hold league-leading rusher William Stanback to only 65 yards.

In the final game of the week, last-place in the West Edmonton visited Mosaic Stadium to play 2nd-ranked Saskatchewan.  In a game sure to place concern in the heart of Rider fans, Saskatchewan eked out a 29-24 win over Edmonton.  The win clinched second place for the Riders, who will host the West Semi-Final in two weeks’ time.  Saskatchewan receiver Duke Williams had a big game, catching 8 passes for 146 yards and a touchdown; the other receivers combined for 99 yards.

There will be 5 games played in the final week of the season, as Edmonton will visit Hamilton on Tuesday to make up for their earlier postponed game due to COVID.  The key games will be Ottawa at Montreal on Friday and Saskatchewan at Hamilton on Saturday; these are the only games that will affect the playoff positions.

Week 15 Results

Hamilton 12  at Toronto 31
Calgary 33  at British Columbia 23
Winnipeg 14  at Montreal 28
Edmonton 24  at Saskatchewan 29

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

Despite their loss to Montreal, Winnipeg retains top spot in the McDonald CFL Power Rankings, with Saskatchewan remaining ranked second.  With their loss to Toronto, Hamilton drops from 3rd to 5th, and Calgary and Toronto have moved up into a tie for 3rd in the rankings.

Ranking Team Rating Record
1 Winnipeg 1611 (▼15) 11-2, 1st West
2 Saskatchewan 1570 (▲6) 9-4, 2nd West
T-3 (▲2) Calgary 1536  (▲12) 7-6, 3rd West
T-3 (▲1) Toronto 1536 (▲11) 9-4, 1st East
5 (▼2) Hamilton 1527 (▼11) 7-6, T-2nd East
6 Montreal 1514 (▲15) 7-6, T-2nd East
7 British Columbia 1435 (▼11) 4-9, 4th West
8 Edmonton 1418 (▼6) 2-10, 5th West
9 Ottawa 1379 2-11, 4th East

Grey Cup Predictions

Once again, Winnipeg is our favourite to win the Grey Cup, although we’ve dropped their chances from 40% to 37%.  Toronto made a big jump, going from 18% chance to 24%, and are now the favourites in the East to win it all.  British Columbia was eliminated from the playoffs, so of course no longer have a chance of winning it.

Grey Cup Ranking Team Rating Win Grey Cup
1 Winnipeg 1611 37% (▼3)
2 (▲1) Toronto 1536 24% (▲6)
3 (▲1) Saskatchewan 1570 13% (▲1)
4 (▼2) Hamilton 1527 11% (▼7)
5 Montreal 1514 8% (▲2)
6 Calgary 1536 7% (▲2)
7 (tie) British Columbia 1435 — (▼1)
7 (tie) Edmonton 1424 —
7 (tie) Ottawa 1379 —

Our Full Predictions

All the playoff teams have been determined, but it’s still not decided who will finish second in the East and consequently host the East Semi-Final.  We’re giving Hamilton a 63% chance of finishing second.  Right now, our most likely scenario is Winnipeg playing Toronto in the Grey Cup, as each team only needs to win their respective Division Final to reach the big game.  But, victories in the Final are far from assured!  It will be interesting as we move into the playoffs in two weeks.

Team Rating Make Playoffs Host Playoff Game Win Division Make Division Final Make Grey Cup Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg
11-2,
1st in West		 1611 ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ 63% 37%
Toronto
9-4,
1st in East		 1536 ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ 57% 24%
Saskatchewan
9-4,
2nd in West		 1570 ✔ ✔ — 62% 24% 13%
Hamilton
7-6,
T-2nd in East		 1527 ✔ 63% — 54% 23% 11%
Montreal
7-6,
T-2nd in East		 1514 ✔ 37% — 46% 19% 8%
Calgary
7-6,
3rd in West		 1536 ✔ — — 38% 13% 7%
British Columbia
4-9,
4th in West		 1435 — — — — — —
Edmonton
2-10,
5th in West		 1418 — — — — — —
Ottawa
2-11,
4th in East		 1379 — — — — — —

Week 16 Game Predictions

Tuesday: Edmonton (28%) at Toronto (71%)
Friday: Ottawa (26%) at Montreal (73%)
Friday: Edmonton (40%) at British Columbia (59%)
Saturday: Saskatchewan (49%) at Hamilton (50%)
Saturday: Winnipeg (53%) at Calgary (46%)

 

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – November 7, 2021

Hockey playerThe NHL is in full swing now, and the McDonald NHL Power Ratings team is very confident in our predictions, as our ratings aren’t seeing the wild swings that they were having as the models calibrated themselves to this year’s teams.  Of course, as the season progresses, the ratings will continue to change to reflect current performance, but we’re liking what we’re seeing in our models now.

Carolina continues to be the top ranked team, although they did suffer their first loss of the season this week.  The premier game of the week was on Friday night, with #1 Carolina facing #2 Florida in Florida, and the Panthers thoroughly defeated the Hurricanes 5-2.  With the win, Florida closed the gap on Carolina, but not enough to take first place in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings.  Florida is the only team not to be defeated in regulation time this year, and are now our favourites to win the President’s Trophy, and are tied with Carolina at having the best chance of winning the Stanley Cup.

Out west, Edmonton continues to impress, as they’ve moved into 3rd place in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings.  They have an identical 9-1-0 record as Carolina, and went 3-0 this week.  We’re currently giving them the best chance of any Canadian team to win the Stanley Cup, at 8%.  Connor McDavid scored a highlight reel goal on Thursday against the New York Rangers, and Leon Draisaitl leads the league in goals with 10 (tied with Washington’s Alex Ovechkin) and points with 23, one point ahead of McDavid.

Washington had a bad week, losing all three of their games this week, although one was an overtime loss to 2nd-ranked Florida.  Although it’s still early in the year, we’re now giving them only a 66% chance of making the playoffs, as they’re currently sitting in 5th place in the Metropolitan Division.  They are leading the league in overtime losses with 4 (out of 11 games), so they could quite easily turn things around.

Sneaking into the top 5 is St. Louis, who moved past Colorado, last week’s #4 team.  Although the Blues had an unimpressive week, 1-1-1 against average teams, they are 7-2-1 this season to sit in second place in the Central Division.  Minnesota, who leads that division, is only ranked 12th in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings.

Big upward movers this week were Anaheim and Tampa Bay.  Anaheim, ranked 29th last week, went 3-0-0, including a 4-1 win over St. Louis last night.  That performance saw them shoot up 9 spots to 20th in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings, and a jump of 21 rating points.  Defending two-time Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay also had a good week, with 2 wins, 3-2 over the 4th-ranked Washington Capitals and 5-3 over the lowly 26th-ranked Ottawa Senators, and an overtime loss to 8th-ranked Toronto.  They gained 16 rating points and moved from 15th in our rankings all the way up to 9th.

The biggest downward moves were by the aforementioned Washington Capitals, down 16 points on the week, and the Ottawa Senators, down 20 points and 6 ranking positions to 26th.  They went 0-3-1 this week, including a 5-1 loss to bottom-ranked Chicago.

The Top 5

1. Carolina Hurricanes (1577, ▼2)

Record: 9-1-0, 1st in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 89% (▼1)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 18% (▼3)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 9%

Last week: 1-1-0

  • November 3: Won 4-3 @ Chicago Blackhawks (32th, 1432)
  • November 6: Lost 5-2 @ Florida Panthers (2nd, 1572)

Next week:

  • November 9: @ Tampa Bay Lightning (9th, 1529)
  • November 12: vs. Philadelphia Flyers (15th, 1521)
  • November 13: vs. St. Louis Blues (5th, 1540)

2. Florida Panthers (1572, ▲6)

Record: 10-0-1, 1st in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

Making the playoffs: 93% (▲3)

  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 22% (▲5)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲1)

Last week: 2-0-0

  • November 4: Won in OT 5-4 vs. Washington Capitals (4th, 1546)
  • November 6: Won 5-2 vs. Carolina Hurricanes (1st, 1577)

Next week:

  • November 8: @ New York Rangers (14th, 1524)
  • November 9: @ New Jersey Devils (25th, 1465)
  • November 11: @ Pittsburgh Penguins (12th, 1525)
  • November 13: @ Tampa Bay Lightning (9th, 1529)

3. Edmonton Oilers ▲1 (1557, ▲10)

Record: 9-1-0, 1st in Pacific Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 91% (▲6)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 13% (▲5)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲2)

Last week: 3-0-0

  • November 1: Won 5-2 vs. Seattle Kraken (28th, 1456)
  • November 3: Won 5-2 vs. Nashville Predators (18th, 1498)
  • November 5: Won in OT 6-5 vs. New York Rangers (14th, 1524)

Next week:

  • November 9: @ Detroit Red Wings (21th, 1473)
  • November 11: @ Boston Bruins (11th, 1528)
  • November 12: @ Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1449)
  • November 14: @ St. Louis Blues (5th, 1540)

4. Washington Capitals ▼1 (1546, ▼16)

Record: 5-2-4, 5th in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 66% (▼13)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 4% (▼6)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 5% (▼2)

Last week: 0-2-1

  • November 1: Lost 3-2 @ Tampa Bay Lightning (9th, 1529)
  • November 4: Lost in OT 5-4 @ Florida Panthers (2nd, 1572)
  • November 6: Lost 2-1 vs. Philadelphia Flyers (15th, 1521)

Next week:

  • November 8: vs. Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1449)
  • November 11: @ Detroit Red Wings (21th, 1473)
  • November 12: @ Columbus Blue Jackets (21th, 1473)
  • November 14: vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (12th, 1525)

5. St. Louis Blues ▲1 (1540, ▼2)

Record: 7-2-1, 2nd in Central Division

Chances of: 

Making the playoffs: 83% (▼1)

  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 6% (▼2)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 6%

Last week: 1-1-1

  • November 3: Lost in SO 3-2 @ Los Angeles Kings (24th, 1466)
  • November 4: Won 5-3 @ San Jose Sharks (19th, 1480)
  • November 7: Lost 4-1 @ Anaheim Ducks (20th, 1475)

Next week:

  • November 9: @ Winnipeg Jets (17th, 1507)
  • November 11: vs. Nashville Predators (18th, 1498)
  • November 13: @ Carolina Hurricanes (1st, 1577)
  • November 14: vs. Edmonton Oilers (3rd, 1557)

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

Overall Ratings

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           1577 (▼2)
 2       Florida Panthers              1572 (▲6)
 3       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          1557 (▲10)
 4       Washington Capitals (▼1)      1546 (▼16)
 5       St. Louis Blues (▲1)          1540 (▼2)
 6       Colorado Avalanche (▼2)       1536 (▼11)
 7       New York Islanders (▲4)       1532 (▲8)
 8       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲5)      1531 (▲13)
 9 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲1)           1529 (▲4)
 9 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲6)      1529 (▲16)
11       Boston Bruins (▼3)            1528 (▼2)
12 (tie) Minnesota Wild                1525 (▲6)
12 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼3)      1525 (▼2)
14       New York Rangers (▼7)         1524 (▼7)
15       Philadelphia Flyers (▲2)      1521 (▲15)
16       Vegas Golden Knights (▼3)     1518
17       Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            1507 (▼5)
18       Nashville Predators           1498 (▲2)
19       San Jose Sharks               1480 (▼2)
20       Anaheim Ducks (▲9)            1475 (▲21)
21 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲5)    1473 (▲11)
21 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             1473 (▼3)
23       Dallas Stars (▼1)             1468 (▼3)
24       Los Angeles Kings             1466
25       New Jersey Devils (▼2)        1465 (▼5)
26       Ottawa Senators (▼6)          1459 (▼20)
27       Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        1458
28       Seattle Kraken (▼1)           1456 (▼5)
29       Buffalo Sabres (▼4)           1449 (▼14)
30       Montreal Canadiens            1437 (▼7)
31       Arizona Coyotes               1434 (▼4)
32       Chicago Blackhawks            1432 (▼1)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           43% (▲1)
 2       Washington Capitals           14% (▼8)
 3 (tie) New York Islanders (▲1)       11% (▲3)
 3 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲2)      11% (▲5)
 5       New York Rangers (▼2)         9% (▼3)
 6       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1)      7% (▲1)
 7       Columbus Blue Jackets         4% (▲2)
 8       New Jersey Devils (▼1)        2%

Atlantic Division

 1       Florida Panthers              58% (▲6)
 2 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      13% (▲3)
 2 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲2)      13% (▲4)
 4       Boston Bruins (▼2)            11% (▼4)
 5       Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        3% (▼1)
 6       Buffalo Sabres (▼1)           2% (▼3)
 7       Ottawa Senators (▼1)          1% (▼3)
 8       Montreal Canadiens            <1% (▼1)

Central Division

 1       St. Louis Blues               33% (▼1)
 2       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           25% (▲9)
 3       Colorado Avalanche (▼1)       15% (▼6)
 4       Winnipeg Jets                 14%
 5       Nashville Predators           9% (▲1)
 6       Dallas Stars                  4%
 7 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1% (▼1)
 7 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Edmonton Oilers               47% (▲9)
 2       Calgary Flames                26% (▼3)
 3       Vegas Golden Knights          9% (▼4)
 4       San Jose Sharks               6% (▼3)
 5       Anaheim Ducks                 5% (▲2)
 6       Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        3%
 7       Vancouver Canucks (▼2)        2% (▼1)
 8       Seattle Kraken (▼3)           1% (▼2)

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           89% (▼1)
 2       Washington Capitals           66% (▼13)
 3       New York Islanders (▲1)       60% (▲5)
 4       Philadelphia Flyers (▲2)      59% (▲12)
 5       New York Rangers (▼2)         58% (▼7)
 6       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1)      51% (▲1)
 7       Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    36% (▲9)
 8       New Jersey Devils (▼1)        26% (▼3)

Atlantic Division

 1       Florida Panthers              93% (▲3)
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      66% (▲14)
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1)      65% (▲15)
 4       Boston Bruins (▼2)            60% (▼1)
 5       Detroit Red Wings             30% (▼3)
 6       Buffalo Sabres (▼1)           21% (▼12)
 7       Ottawa Senators               14% (▼16)
 8       Montreal Canadiens            6% (▼3)

Central Division

 1       St. Louis Blues               83% (▼1)
 2       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           78% (▲9)
 3       Colorado Avalanche (▼1)       66% (▼9)
 4       Winnipeg Jets                 63% (▼2)
 5       Nashville Predators           54% (▲3)
 6       Dallas Stars                  33% (▼4)
 7       Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       9% (▼1)
 8       Arizona Coyotes (▼1)          8% (▼3)

Pacific Division

 1       Edmonton Oilers               91% (▲6)
 2       Calgary Flames                82% (▲2)
 3       Vegas Golden Knights          59% (▼3)
 4       San Jose Sharks               47% (▼5)
 5       Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            44% (▲15)
 6       Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        34% (▲3)
 7       Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        28%
 8       Seattle Kraken (▼2)           22% (▼7)

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Florida Panthers (▲1)         22% (▲5)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes (▼1)      18% (▼3)
 3       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          13% (▲5)
 4 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲2)           6%
 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues               6% (▼2)
 6 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲3)           4% (▲1)
 6 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼3)      4% (▼6)
 8 (tie) New York Islanders (▲1)       3%
 8 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲4)      3% (▲1)
 8 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲4)      3% (▲1)
 8 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲9)      3% (▲2)
12 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼3)            2% (▼1)
12 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼5)       2% (▼2)
12 (tie) New York Rangers (▼5)         2% (▼2)
12 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins           2%
12 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 2%
17 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲6)    1% (▲1)
17 (tie) Nashville Predators           1%
17 (tie) San Jose Sharks               1%
17 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼5)     1% (▼1)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           9%
 1 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲1)         9% (▲1)
 3       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          8% (▲2)
 4       St. Louis Blues               6%
 5 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲2)           5%
 5 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼1)       5% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲3)           5% (▲1)
 5 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼2)      5% (▼2)
 9 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1)            4%
 9 (tie) New York Islanders (▲4)       4% (▲1)
 9 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲4)      4% (▲1)
 9 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲4)      4% (▲1)
 9 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     4%
14 (tie) New York Rangers (▼6)         3% (▼1)
14 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼1)      3%
14 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      3%
14 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1)      3%
14 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼6)            3% (▼1)
19 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲2)            2% (▲1)
19 (tie) San Jose Sharks               2%
21 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                1%
21 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         1%
21 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼2)             1% (▼1)
21 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             1%
21 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             1%
21 (tie) New Jersey Devils             1%
21 (tie) Ottawa Senators               1%
21 (tie) Seattle Kraken                1%
21 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             1%
30 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1%
30 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%
30 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%

 

McDonald CFL Power Ratings – Week 14

CFL logoThere’s only two weeks left in the CFL regular season, but there’s still a lot up in the air heading towards the playoffs.  In the West, Winnipeg has first place locked up, Saskatchewan has clinched a playoff spot, and Edmonton has been eliminated from the playoffs, but it’s still not clear whether Calgary or British Columbia will get the last playoff spot.  In fact, Calgary still has a chance of finishing second and getting themselves a home playoff game.  In the East, Ottawa has been eliminated, and Montreal can’t win the division, but the other playoff positions are still up for grabs.

There were two games on Friday and two on Saturday this week.  In the first Friday game, British Columbia travelled to Hamilton.  The Ticats defeated the Lions, 26-18.  British Columbia scored a field goal on the first possession of the game, after a drive that used up half of the first quarter.  But Hamilton came back and also kicked a field goal on their first possession, and never trailed after that.  Hamilton quarterback Jeremiah Masoli passed for 258 yards, passing the 15,000 yard career mark and becoming only the fourth Hamilton player to do so.  In a losing cause, BC quarterback Michael Reilly went 33-for-43 for 330 yards, but it wasn’t enough.  It was BC’s sixth straight loss.

On Friday’s second game, Saskatchewan travelled to Edmonton for a late evening November ballgame on the Prairies.  But, surprisingly, it was a beautiful night for football, with the temperature above zero at the start of the game and a very light wind.  Saskatchewan beat Edmonton 19-17, their third straight road win.  With the loss, the Elks finished their home season with an unblemished 0-7 record, the first time in their history that they haven’t won a game at home.  Saskatchewan led 16-3 after the 3rd quarter, and Edmonton made it close, but Elk QB Taylor Cornelius, who ended the game with 322 passing yards, couldn’t finish the comeback.  Saskatchewan, despite being ranked 2nd in the McDonald CFL Power Rankings, only scored one touchdown against the 8th-ranked Elks.  Perhaps the most exciting play of the game for the Riders was when they scored a rouge late in the 2nd quarter after a 53 yard punt into the end zone couldn’t be run out by Edmonton.  Saskatchewan was flagged for a 5 yard no yards call, but rather than not giving up the point and taking possession of the ball deep in their own end, Edmonton chose to decline the penalty and give up the single point.  And that WAS Saskatchewan’s most exciting play of the game, in the eyes of this observer.

In Saturday’s first game, Toronto defeated the hapless Ottawa RedBlacks 23-20.  Despite the close score, rookie Ottawa quarterback Devlin Hodges went 8 for 22 for a total of 90 yards, but in his part, Argo quarterback McLeod Bethel-Thompson threw 3 interceptions.  Ottawa must be looking forward to the end of the season, and hope to be more hapful next year.  Making the score close was Ottawa’s exciting kick returner DeVonte Dedmon, who returned 3 kickoffs for 126 yards, including a 100 yard touchdown return, and two punts for 30 yards, one of which went for 24 yards. He’s an exciting player to watch!

The final game of the weekend saw Montreal travel to Winnipeg to take on the top-ranked Blue Bombers.  The home team didn’t disappoint their fans, as Winnipeg won 31-21 over Montreal.  It was Winnipeg’s 9th straight win, and they finished their home season at 7-0.  Winnipeg quarterback Zach Collaros threw for 280 yards and two touchdowns, and Bomber running back William Stanback rushed for 106 yards, a 6.6 yards per carry average.  The game was tied 21-21 after three quarters, showing that Winnipeg can be beaten, but they shut down the Als in the fourth quarter to take the win.

On a sad note, CFL Hall of Famer Angelo Mosca died this week after a lengthy battle with Alzheimer’s disease.  He was a feared defensive lineman who won 5 Grey Cups and eventually became a professional wrestler.  His best known fight, though, may have been at a 2011 CFL Alumni gathering, when he and Joe Kapp, former BC Lions quarterback, battled over a perceived dirty hit in the 1963 Grey Cup game.  You can watch the fight on YouTube.

Week 14 Results

British Columbia 18  at Hamilton 26
Saskatchewan 19  at Edmonton 17
Toronto 23  at Ottawa 20
Montreal 21  at Winnipeg 31

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

There was very little change in the rankings this week.  With Calgary idle and Toronto beating Ottawa, Toronto has moved past Calgary into 4th place in the McDonald CFL Power Rankings.  Winnipeg remains on top, far ahead of second place Saskatchewan.  Despite Toronto leading the East, we still have Hamilton as the Eastern team.  Montreal has now dropped below the magical 1500 mark.

Ranking Team Rating Record
1 Winnipeg 1626 (▲7) 11-1, 1st West
2 Saskatchewan 1564 (▲10) 8-4, 2nd West
3 Hamilton 1538 (▲8) 7-5, 2nd East
4 (▲1) Toronto 1525 (▲10) 8-4, 1st East
5 (▼1) Calgary 1524 6-6, 3rd West
6 Montreal 1499 (▼7) 6-6, 3rd East
7 British Columbia 1446 (▼8) 4-8, 4th West
8 Edmonton 1424 (▼10) 2-9, 5th West
9 Ottawa 1379 (▼10) 2-11, 4th East

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg remains the favourite to win the Grey Cup, with them winning in 40% of our simulations.  Why only 40%, when they are clearly the strongest team in the CFL?  Well, they do have to win the games on the field, not just on paper.  As could be seen with their game this week against Montreal, they are vulnerable.

Grey Cup Ranking Team Rating Win Grey Cup
1 Winnipeg 1626 40% (▲1)
2 Hamilton 1538 18% (▲1)
3 Toronto 1525 18% (▲1)
4 Saskatchewan 1564 12% (▲1)
5 Montreal 1499 6% (▼3)
6 Calgary 1524 5% (▼1)
7 British Columbia 1446 1%
8 (tie) Edmonton 1424 — (▼1)
8 (tie) Ottawa 1379 —

Our Full Predictions

Edmonton has now been eliminated from the playoffs, and Montreal can’t win the East.  British Columbia still has a chance to make the playoffs, but can’t finish higher than 3rd in the West.  Calgary could still finish second in the West, but they need to win their last two games and Saskatchewan needs to lose their last two.

Team Rating Make Playoffs Host Playoff Game Win Division Make Division Final Make Grey Cup Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg
11-1
1st in West		 1626 ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ 66% 40%
Hamilton
7-5
2nd in East		 1538 ✔ 92% 31% 72% 37% 18%
Toronto
8-4
1st in East		 1525 ✔ 96% 69% 87% 46% 18%
Saskatchewan
8-4
2nd in West		 1564 ✔ 97% — 63% 22% 12%
Montreal
6-6
3rd in East		 1499 ✔ 12% — 41% 16% 6%
Calgary
6-6
3rd in West		 1524 84% 3% — 32% 11% 5%
British Columbia
4-8
4th in West		 1446 16% — — 5% 1% 1%
Edmonton
2-9
5th in West		 1424 — — — — — —
Ottawa
2-11
4th in East		 1379 — — — — — —

Week 15 Game Predictions

Friday: Hamilton (45%) at Toronto (54%)
Friday: Calgary (53%) at British Columbia (46%)
Saturday: Winnipeg (60%) at Montreal (39%)
Saturday: Edmonton (25%) at Saskatchewan (74%)

 

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – October 31, 2021

Hockey playerWe’re three weeks into the NHL season now, and most of the uncertainty we’ve introduced into our models has worked its way out of the system, and the models are now pretty well calibrated.  We’re still seeing some big changes, but no more than we would normally expect to see in a week, so things seem pretty stable.  Of course, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty because it’s so early in the season, but we feel that our ratings are pretty accurate as to how the teams are currently playing, and as the season progresses, we’ll see more and more accurate calculations.

Carolina remains the top team in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings, and it’s not a surprise, as they are the only undefeated team in the league, with a current record of 8-0-0.  That’s an amazing start!  As a result, despite them only having played about 10% of their schedule, we’re already giving them a 90% chance of making the playoffs, and a 21% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.  They are also the favourites to win the Stanley Cup, but at 9% probability, that’s far from a sure thing!  They won all four of their games this week, although two of those games were against last-ranked Chicago and second-last-ranked Arizona.  But still, 8 wins to start the season is pretty impressive!

Florida is ranked number 2, as they were last week.  They’ve had as impressive a start as Carolina, having won their first eight games.  In their ninth, though, they lost in a shootout to 8th-ranked Boston.  Their numbers aren’t far behind Carolina’s, with a 90% chance of making the playoffs (same as Carolina), a 17% chance of winning the President’s Trophy (vs. 21%), and an 8% probability of winning the Stanley Cup (vs. 9%).  They have a tough week coming up which will be a good indication of whether they’re as good as we think they are, as they play number 3 Washington on Thursday and number 1 Carolina on Saturday.  That Saturday game should be a good one!

Washington is ranked number 3, up one spot from last week.  They had two wins and an overtime loss.  They haven’t lost in regulation time yet this year, but do have three overtime losses, blemishing their otherwise spotless record at 5-0-3.

Moving back into the top 5 is Colorado, taking the number 4 spot.  They are 4-4-0 this year, good for only 5th position in the Central Division, but they seem to be starting to come into form.

Rounding out the top 5 is Edmonton, who are tied with Colorado for the number 4 spot.  They lost their first game of the year to Philadelphia, but followed that up with a win over Vancouver.  Despite their great start with a 6-1-0 record, they are only 2nd in the Pacific Division.

The reason Edmonton is only 2nd in the Pacific is because Calgary is also having a great start.  They are 6-1-1 for a one point lead over Edmonton, and had 4 wins this week.  They had the biggest move this week, picking up 33 rating points and moving up 8 spots in our rankings, to number 10.  It might be a great year for Alberta teams!

The biggest downward movement this week was Pittsburgh.  They had been number 2 last week, but after losing three games and being outscored 13-3 this week, we’ve dropped their rating by 33 points, moving them to number 9 in the rankings.  We’ll keep an eye on them to see if they can turn things around.

The Top 5

1. Carolina Hurricanes (1579, ▲20)

Record: 8-0-0, 1st in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 90% (▲11)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 21% (▲10)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲2)

Last week: 4-0-0

  • October 25: Won 4-1 vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (13th, 1518)
  • October 28: Won 3-0 vs. Boston Bruins (8th, 1530)
  • October 29: Won 6-3 vs. Chicago Blackhawks (32th, 1433)
  • October 31: Won 2-1 vs. Arizona Coyotes (31th, 1438)

Next week:

  • November 3: @ Chicago Blackhawks (32th, 1433)
  • November 6: @ Florida Panthers (2nd, 1566)

2. Florida Panthers (1566, ▲10)

Record: 8-0-1, 1st in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 90% (▲8)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 17% (▲5)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲1)

Last week: 3-0-1

  • October 25: Won 5-3 vs. Arizona Coyotes (31th, 1438)
  • October 27: Won 4-1 vs. Boston Bruins (8th, 1530)
  • October 29: Won in OT 3-2 @ Detroit Red Wings (21th, 1476)
  • October 30: Lost in SO 3-2 @ Boston Bruins (8th, 1530)

Next week:

  • November 4: vs. Washington Capitals (3rd, 1562)
  • November 6: vs. Carolina Hurricanes (1st, 1579)

3. Washington Capitals ▲1 (1562, ▲8)

Record: 5-0-3, 2nd in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 79% (▲6)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 10% (▲2)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲1)

Last week: 2-0-1

  • October 25: Won 7-5 @ Ottawa Senators (20th, 1479)
  • October 27: Lost in OT 3-2 vs. Detroit Red Wings (21th, 1476)
  • October 29: Won 2-0 vs. Arizona Coyotes (31th, 1438)

Next week:

  • November 1: @ Tampa Bay Lightning (15th, 1513)
  • November 4: @ Florida Panthers (2nd, 1566)
  • November 6: vs. Philadelphia Flyers (17th, 1506)

4 (tie). Colorado Avalanche ▲3 (1547, ▲6)

Record: 4-4-0, 5th in Central Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 75% (▲5)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 4%
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▲1)

Last week: 2-1-0

  • October 26: Lost 3-1 vs. Vegas Golden Knights (13th, 1518)
  • October 28: Won 4-3 @ St. Louis Blues (6th, 1542)
  • October 30: Won 4-1 vs. Minnesota Wild (12th, 1519)

Next week:

  • November 3: vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (26th, 1462)
  • November 6: @ Columbus Blue Jackets (26th, 1462)

4 (tie). Edmonton Oilers ▲1 (1547, ▼2)

Record: 6-1-0, 2nd in Pacific Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 85% (▼1)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 8% (▼2)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▼1)

Last week: 1-1-0

  • October 27: Lost 5-3 vs. Philadelphia Flyers (17th, 1506)
  • October 30: Won 2-1 @ Vancouver Canucks (28th, 1458)

Next week:

  • November 1: vs. Seattle Kraken (27th, 1461)
  • November 3: vs. Nashville Predators (18th, 1496)
  • November 5: vs. New York Rangers (7th, 1531)

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

Overall Ratings

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           1579 (▲20)
 2       Florida Panthers              1566 (▲10)
 3       Washington Capitals (▲1)      1562 (▲8)
 4 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲3)       1547 (▲6)
 4 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          1547 (▼2)
 6       St. Louis Blues (▲1)          1542 (▲1)
 7       New York Rangers (▲2)         1531 (▲4)
 8       Boston Bruins (▼2)            1530 (▼12)
 9       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼7)      1527 (▼29)
10       Calgary Flames (▲8)           1525 (▲33)
11       New York Islanders            1524
12       Minnesota Wild (▼2)           1519 (▼7)
13 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      1518 (▼1)
13 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          1518 (▲7)
15       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      1513 (▲7)
16       Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            1512 (▲14)
17       Philadelphia Flyers           1506 (▲10)
18       Nashville Predators (▲1)      1496 (▲7)
19       San Jose Sharks (▼4)          1482 (▼16)
20       Ottawa Senators (▲3)          1479 (▲2)
21       Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        1476 (▼2)
22       Dallas Stars (▼2)             1471 (▼16)
23       New Jersey Devils (▲1)        1470 (▲1)
24       Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        1466 (▲2)
25       Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           1463 (▲1)
26       Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    1462 (▲2)
27       Seattle Kraken (▲3)           1461 (▲8)
28       Vancouver Canucks (▼7)        1458 (▼22)
29       Anaheim Ducks (▲2)            1454 (▲2)
30       Montreal Canadiens (▼2)       1444 (▼12)
31       Arizona Coyotes (▼3)          1438 (▼18)
32       Chicago Blackhawks            1433 (▼8)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           42% (▲16)
 2       Washington Capitals (▲1)      22% (▲2)
 3       New York Rangers (▲1)         12% (▼1)
 4       New York Islanders (▲1)       8% (▼2)
 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      6% (▲1)
 5 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼3)      6% (▼15)
 7 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    2%
 7 (tie) New Jersey Devils             2% (▼1)

Atlantic Division

 1       Florida Panthers              52% (▲12)
 2       Boston Bruins                 15% (▼9)
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      10% (▲1)
 4       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      9% (▼1)
 5       Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           5%
 6 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼1)        4% (▼2)
 6 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1)          4%
 8       Montreal Canadiens            1% (▼1)

Central Division

 1       St. Louis Blues               34% (▲1)
 2       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       21% (▲3)
 3       Minnesota Wild (▼1)           16% (▼6)
 4       Winnipeg Jets                 14% (▲5)
 5       Nashville Predators (▲1)      8% (▲2)
 6       Dallas Stars (▼2)             4% (▼5)
 7       Arizona Coyotes               1% (▼1)
 8       Chicago Blackhawks            <1% (▼1)

Pacific Division

 1       Edmonton Oilers               38% (▼5)
 2       Calgary Flames (▲1)           29% (▲17)
 3       Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     13% (▲4)
 4       San Jose Sharks (▼2)          9% (▼8)
 5 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            3% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        3% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲3)           3%
 5 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼1)        3% (▼6)

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           90% (▲11)
 2       Washington Capitals (▲1)      79% (▲6)
 3       New York Rangers (▲1)         65% (▲3)
 4       New York Islanders (▲1)       55% (▼1)
 5       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼3)      50% (▼24)
 6       Philadelphia Flyers           47% (▲7)
 7       New Jersey Devils             29% (▼2)
 8       Columbus Blue Jackets         27% (▲2)

Atlantic Division

 1       Florida Panthers              90% (▲8)
 2       Boston Bruins                 61% (▼9)
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      52% (▲5)
 4       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      50%
 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           33% (▲2)
 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             33% (▼2)
 7       Ottawa Senators               30%
 8       Montreal Canadiens            9% (▼7)

Central Division

 1       St. Louis Blues               84% (▲2)
 2       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       75% (▲5)
 3       Minnesota Wild (▼1)           69% (▼5)
 4       Winnipeg Jets                 65% (▲13)
 5       Nashville Predators (▲1)      51% (▲9)
 6       Dallas Stars (▼2)             37% (▼15)
 7       Arizona Coyotes               11% (▼12)
 8       Chicago Blackhawks            10% (▼6)

Pacific Division

 1       Edmonton Oilers               85% (▼1)
 2       Calgary Flames (▲1)           80% (▲25)
 3       Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     62% (▲12)
 4       San Jose Sharks (▼2)          52% (▼12)
 5       Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        31% (▼1)
 6 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            29% (▼1)
 6 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲2)           29% (▲4)
 8       Vancouver Canucks (▼3)        28% (▼20)

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      21% (▲10)
 2       Florida Panthers (▼1)         17% (▲5)
 3       Washington Capitals (▲3)      10% (▲2)
 4 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          8% (▼2)
 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues               8% (▼1)
 6       Calgary Flames (▲7)           6% (▲4)
 7 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲2)       4%
 7 (tie) New York Rangers (▲2)         4%
 9 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼2)            3% (▼3)
 9 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼1)           3% (▼2)
 9 (tie) New York Islanders (▲2)       3%
12 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲4)      2% (▲1)
12 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼8)      2% (▼7)
12 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      2%
12 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲4)     2% (▲1)
12 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲4)            2% (▲1)
17 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▼1)           1%
17 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼1)        1%
17 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼1)      1%
17 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼1)        1%
17 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼6)          1% (▼2)
17 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼4)      1% (▼1)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           9% (▲2)
 2       Florida Panthers (▼1)         8% (▲1)
 3       Washington Capitals (▲1)      7% (▲1)
 4 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲3)       6% (▲1)
 4 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼3)          6% (▼1)
 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues               6%
 7       Calgary Flames (▲5)           5% (▲2)
 8 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1)            4% (▼1)
 8 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼1)           4% (▼1)
 8 (tie) New York Rangers (▲2)         4%
 8 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲4)     4% (▲1)
 8 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲4)            4% (▲1)
13 (tie) New York Islanders (▼3)       3% (▼1)
13 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲5)      3% (▲1)
13 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲5)      3% (▲1)
13 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼9)      3% (▼3)
13 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      3%
13 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      3%
19 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼1)             2%
19 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼7)          2% (▼1)
21 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲2)            1%
21 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲2)           1%
21 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2)    1%
21 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼3)        1% (▼1)
21 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲2)        1%
21 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲2)        1%
21 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲2)          1%
21 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲2)           1%
21 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼3)        1% (▼1)
30 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▼7)          <1% (▼1)
30 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▼7)       <1% (▼1)
30 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▼7)       <1% (▼1)

 

McDonald CFL Power Ratings – Week 13

CFL logoWhile preparing last week’s McDonald CFL Power Ratings report, I thought, “you know, other than Winnipeg, the teams this year just aren’t that good, and the games really haven’t been that exciting.”  During the week, I ran across a couple articles that were able to make that point much better than me.  Regina Leader-Post’s Rob Vanstone, a guy around my age, a fellow Mets fan, and someone who has played Strat-O-Matic Football, summed it up beautifully in the article “All is not swell in the once-exciting CFL.”  I’ve gotta meet this guy some time.  Meanwhile, over at 3DownNation, Joel Gasson rightly wrote that “The CFL has an entertainment problem and there’s no easy solution.”  But anyways, on to this week’s games.

There were four games again this weekend, two on Friday and two on Saturday.  In the first game Friday, up-and-coming Calgary travelled to Ottawa to face the bottom-ranked RedBlacks.  Calgary was coming off a loss to Saskatchewan last week, and looked to resume their run for the playoffs.  Despite being behind 10-3 after the first quarter, Calgary prevailed over Ottawa 26-13.  For the winning side, running back Ka’Deem Carey rushed for 103 yards and one touchdown, and quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell threw for 242 yards, enough to give him 30,000 career passing yards in the CFL.  The Calgary defense also sacked the Ottawa quarterback five times.  Calgary has now won four of their last five games.

In the late game, Hamilton thumped Edmonton 39-23.  Hamilton led 27-4 at the half, in which quarterback Jeremiah Masoli passed for 287 yards and three touchdowns.  In just the first half!!!  Masoli ended up with a total of 357 passing yards for the game.  Hamilton running back Don Jackson ran for 120 yards.  For the Elks, Taylor Cornelius passed for 251 yards and Dakota Prukop, who carried the ball eight times for a total of 9 yards, scored two rushing touchdowns in a losing effort.

Saturday’s first game saw British Columbia visit Toronto.  On a stormy day, Toronto outlasted BC 31-29 in overtime.  With 5:30 left in the game, Toronto led 23-21, with BC 3rd and 4 from the Toronto 37.  Attempting a 50 yard field goal, BC’s Jimmy Camacho missed, but the ball went through the end zone for a rouge (perhaps football’s most exciting play), cutting the Toronto lead to 1.  There followed a 3-and-out for Toronto, then a 3-and-out for BC, and another 3-and-out for Toronto.  On the next possession, BC moved the ball down to Toronto 42, where Camacho again tried another 50 yard field goal.  This time, it was blocked, and Toronto took over the ball on their own 13 with 45 seconds left and a one point lead.  Attempting to run out the clock, they were only able to run it down to 18 seconds before having to punt.  BC returned the punt to the Toronto 37 with 7 seconds left.  They were able to complete a pass to the 30 with 3 seconds left, at which point Camacho attempted a 37 yard field goal.  He missed again, the ball sailed through the end zone for a rouge, and the game went to overtime.  In overtime, Toronto scored a touchdown on their possession and followed it up with a two-point convert.  On BC’s possession, they also scored a touchdown, but failed the two-point convert attempt, and Toronto ended up with the win.

In the last game of the weekend, I’m not sure if it was an impressive defensive showing by both teams, or a game of sputtering offenses, but Saskatchewan beat Montreal 19-14.  At the half, Saskatchewan led 7-3, having scored on their last possession of the half.  After 4 more field goals and a rouge, the game progressed to a 16-7 Saskatchewan lead.  Montreal finally found the endzone with 1:27 left in the game to cut the lead to 2, but after yet another Rider field goal, Montreal wasn’t able to score again.  In the win, Saskatchewan’s defense recorded five sacks, while Montreal got six of their own.

Week 13 Results

Calgary 26  at Ottawa 13
Hamilton 39  at Edmonton 23
British Columbia 29  at Toronto 31
Saskatchewan 19  at Montreal 14

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

There weren’t a lot of changes in the McDonald CFL Power Rankings this week.  Winnipeg and Saskatchewan remain the top two teams, and British Columbia, Edmonton, and Ottawa are the bottom three.  With Montreal’s loss to Saskatchewan, they have dropped from 3rd all the way down to 6th, and as a result, Hamilton, Calgary, and Toronto, all winners this week, have moved up one spot each.

Ranking Team Rating Record
1 Winnipeg 1619 10-1, 1st West
2 Saskatchewan 1554 (▲14) 7-4, 2nd West
3 (▲1) Hamilton 1530 (▲12) 6-5, T-2nd East
4 (▲1) Calgary 1524 (▲10) 6-6, 3rd West
5 (▲1) Toronto 1515 (▲9) 7-4, 1st East
6 (▼3) Montreal 1506 (▼13) 6-5, T-2nd East
7 British Columbia 1454 (▼9) 4-7, 4th West
8 Edmonton 1434 (▼12) 2-8, 5th West
9 Ottawa 1389 (▼10) 2-10, 4th East

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg, by far the best team in the league this year, continue to be the favourites to win the Grey Cup.  Having clinched first place in the West, they advance straight to the West Final.  A win there puts them in the Grey Cup.  Hamilton, who will host the Grey Cup this year, are now second favourite to win it all, at 17%, which is the same as Toronto, but when you get down to percentage points, we put Hamilton ahead (17.2% vs. 16.9%).  Saskatchewan improved their chances slightly with their win over Montreal, but will need to win in the Western Semi-Final, then beat Winnipeg in the Western Final to reach the big game.  Although Edmonton hasn’t been eliminated from the playoffs yet, their chances of making it are very slim, and we’ve calculated that they have a 0.006% chance of winning the Grey Cup!

Grey Cup Ranking Team Rating Win Grey Cup
1 Winnipeg 1619 39% (▼2)
2 (▲2) Hamilton 1530 17% (▲3)
3 Toronto 1515 17% (▲3)
4 (▲1) Saskatchewan 1554 11% (▲1)
5 (▼3) Montreal 1506 9% (▼6)
6 Calgary 1524 6% (▲1)
7 British Columbia 1454 1% (▼1)
8 Edmonton 1434 <1%
9 Ottawa 1389 —

Our Full Predictions

This week, both Toronto and Saskatchewan clinched playoff spots.  Hamilton and Montreal are very likely to also make the playoffs in the East (99% chance for each).  It will be likely that Calgary will also make the playoffs, at 78%, with British Columbia at only a 24% likelihood.  Edmonton’s chances are extremely slim, but they haven’t been eliminated yet.  That could come if they lose to Saskatchewan this week.

Team Rating Make Playoffs Host Playoff Game Win Division Make Division Final Make Grey Cup Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg
10-1,
1st in West		 1619 ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ 66% 39%
Hamilton
6-5,
T-2nd in East		 1530 99% 73% 29% 67% 35% 17%
Toronto
7-4,
1st in East		 1515 ✔ 86% 63% 81% 43% 17%
Saskatchewan
7-4,
2nd in West		 1554 ✔ 89% — 60% 21% 11%
Montreal
6-5,
T-2nd in East		 1506 99% 40% 9% 51% 22% 9%
Calgary
6-6,
3rd in West		 1524 78% 11% — 33% 11% 6%
British Columbia
4-7,
4th in West		 1454 24% — — 8% 2% 1%
Edmonton
2-8,
5th in West		 1434 <1% — — <1% <1% <1%
Ottawa
2-10,
4th in East		 1389 — — — — — —

Week 14 Game Predictions

Friday: British Columbia (33%) at Hamilton (66%)
Friday: Saskatchewan (59%) at Edmonton (40%)
Saturday: Toronto (60%) at Ottawa (39%)
Saturday: Montreal (28%) at Winnipeg (71%)

 

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – October 24, 2021

Hockey playerWe’re two weeks into the season now, and we’re still seeing lots of changes in the ratings, as our models continue to calibrate themselves.  We’ve got a new top team, and two new teams in the top 5.

Carolina has now taken over top spot in our rankings.  They had two wins, both against weaker teams (Montreal ranked 28th, and Columbus ranked 27th), but now have a 4-0-0 record.  Next week will be a test for them, as they start the week with games against Toronto (ranked 12th) and Boston (6th).

Pittsburgh remains in second place in our rankings, but now they’ve got company, as Florida made a big move to move into the second place tie.  Pittsburgh went 1-0-1, with a big 7-1 win over Toronto and a shootout loss to Dallas.  They now have a 3-0-2 record.  Florida had a strong week with 3 wins, beating Tampa Bay, Colorado, and Philadelphia.  They are now 5-0-0, and are currently our favourites to win the President’s Trophy, with them taking it in 12% of our simulations.

Washington stays in fourth place in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings, after going 2-0-1 this week.  They beat Colorado and New Jersey, and lost in overtime to Calgary.

New to the top 5 is Edmonton.  They won all three of their games this week, defeating lowly Anaheim (31st) and Arizona (28th), but also beat Vegas (13th).  They are also 5-0-0, and are currently the most-likely Canadian team to win the Stanley Cup, winning it all in 7% of our simulations, which is the same as both Carolina and Florida.

Other big movers this week included the New York Islanders, up 23 rating points to 11th after going 3-0-1, and St. Louis, up 22 points to 7th after notching 3 wins this week.  On the downside, Vegas dropped 25 points and Chicago dropped 24.  Chicago is now the lowest-ranked team in the league.

The Top 5

1. Carolina Hurricanes ▲2 (1559, ▲12)

Record: 4-0-0, 2nd in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 79% (▲8)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 11% (▲2)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲1)

Last week: 2-0-0

  • October 21: Won 4-1 @ Montreal Canadiens (28th, 1456)
  • October 23: Won 5-1 @ Columbus Blue Jackets (27th, 1460)

Next week:

  • October 25: vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (12th, 1519)
  • October 28: vs. Boston Bruins (6th, 1542)
  • October 29: vs. Chicago Blackhawks (32nd, 1441)
  • October 31: vs. Arizona Coyotes (28th, 1456)

2 (tie). Florida Panthers ▲6 (1556, ▲22)

Record: 5-0-0, 1st in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 82% (▲15)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 12% (▲6)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲2)

Last week: 3-0-0

  • October 19: Won 4-1 @ Tampa Bay Lightning (14th, 1506)
  • October 21: Won 4-1 vs. Colorado Avalanche (7th, 1541)
  • October 23: Won 4-2 @ Philadelphia Flyers (17th, 1496)

Next week:

  • October 25: vs. Arizona Coyotes (28th, 1456)
  • October 27: vs. Boston Bruins (6th, 1542)
  • October 29: @ Detroit Red Wings (22nd, 1478)
  • October 30: @ Boston Bruins (6th, 1542)

2 (tie). Pittsburgh Penguins (1556, ▲4)

Record: 3-0-2, 3rd in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 74% (▲1)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 9%
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 6%

Last week: 1-0-1

  • October 19: Lost in SO 2-1 vs. Dallas Stars (20th, 1487)
  • October 23: Won 7-1 vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (12th, 1519)

Next week:

  • October 26: vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (14th, 1506)
  • October 28: vs. Calgary Flames (18th, 1492)
  • October 30: vs. New Jersey Devils (24th, 1469)

4. Washington Capitals (1554, ▲12)

Record: 3-0-2, 4th in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 73% (▲7)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 8% (▲2)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▲1)

Last week: 2-0-1

  • October 19: Won 6-3 vs. Colorado Avalanche (7th, 1541)
  • October 21: Won 4-1 @ New Jersey Devils (24th, 1469)
  • October 23: Lost in OT 4-3 vs. Calgary Flames (18th, 1492)

Next week:

  • October 25: @ Ottawa Senators (23rd, 1477)
  • October 27: vs. Detroit Red Wings (22nd, 1478)
  • October 29: vs. Arizona Coyotes (28th, 1456)

5. Edmonton Oilers ▲5 (1549, ▲20)

Record: 5-0-0, 1st in Pacific Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 86% (▲14)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 10% (▲4)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲2)

Last week: 3-0-0

  • October 19: Won 6-5 vs. Anaheim Ducks (31st, 1452)
  • October 21: Won 5-1 @ Arizona Coyotes (28th, 1456)
  • October 22: Won 5-3 @ Vegas Golden Knights (13th, 1511)

Next week:

  • October 27: vs. Philadelphia Flyers (17th, 1496)
  • October 30: @ Vancouver Canucks (21st, 1480)

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

Overall Ratings

 1       Carolina Hurricanes (▲2)      1559 (▲12)
 2 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲7)         1556 (▲22)
 2 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins           1556 (▲4)
 4       Washington Capitals           1554 (▲12)
 5       Edmonton Oilers (▲5)          1549 (▲20)
 6       Boston Bruins                 1542 (▲6)
 7 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼6)       1541 (▼14)
 7 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲4)          1541 (▲22)
 9       New York Rangers (▲4)         1527 (▲17)
10       Minnesota Wild (▼5)           1526 (▼14)
11       New York Islanders (▲3)       1524 (▲23)
12       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼4)      1519 (▼16)
13       Vegas Golden Knights (▼7)     1511 (▼25)
14       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼2)      1506 (▼8)
15 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲7)          1498 (▲20)
15 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲4)            1498 (▲14)
17       Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      1496 (▲7)
18       Calgary Flames (▲2)           1492 (▲9)
19       Nashville Predators (▼2)      1489 (▲1)
20       Dallas Stars (▼2)             1487 (▲1)
21       Vancouver Canucks (▲6)        1480 (▲9)
22       Detroit Red Wings (▼1)        1478 (▼1)
23       Ottawa Senators (▼8)          1477 (▼17)
24       New Jersey Devils (▲4)        1469 (▼1)
25       Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        1464 (▼10)
26       Buffalo Sabres (▲5)           1462 (▲1)
27       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1)    1460 (▼12)
28 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▼5)          1456 (▼21)
28 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲2)       1456 (▼7)
30       Seattle Kraken (▼6)           1453 (▼21)
31       Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            1452 (▼7)
32       Chicago Blackhawks (▼3)       1441 (▼24)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      26% (▲2)
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1)      21% (▼4)
 3       Washington Capitals           20% (▲1)
 4       New York Rangers              13% (▲4)
 5       New York Islanders            10% (▲4)
 6       Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      5% (▼1)
 7       New Jersey Devils (▲1)        3% (▼2)
 8       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼3)    2% (▼4)

Atlantic Division

 1       Florida Panthers              40% (▲18)
 2       Boston Bruins                 24% (▲3)
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           10% (▼9)
 4       Tampa Bay Lightning           9% (▼5)
 5       Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        6% (▼1)
 6       Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           5%
 7       Ottawa Senators (▼2)          4% (▼5)
 8       Montreal Canadiens            2% (▼1)

Central Division

 1       St. Louis Blues (▲2)          33% (▲15)
 2       Minnesota Wild (▼1)           22% (▼5)
 3       Colorado Avalanche (▼2)       18% (▼9)
 4 (tie) Dallas Stars                  9% (▲2)
 4 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            9% (▲3)
 6       Nashville Predators (▼1)      6%
 7       Arizona Coyotes (▼2)          2% (▼4)
 8       Chicago Blackhawks            1% (▼3)

Pacific Division

 1       Edmonton Oilers               43% (▲16)
 2       San Jose Sharks (▲1)          17% (▲7)
 3       Calgary Flames (▲1)           12% (▲3)
 4 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲3)        9% (▲2)
 4 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼2)     9% (▼15)
 6 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲2)            4% (▼2)
 6 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        4% (▼4)
 8       Seattle Kraken (▼3)           3% (▼5)

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      79% (▲7)
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1)      74% (▲1)
 3       Washington Capitals           73% (▲6)
 4       New York Rangers              62% (▲13)
 5       New York Islanders            56% (▲16)
 6       Philadelphia Flyers           40% (▲1)
 7       New Jersey Devils (▲1)        31% (▼2)
 8       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1)    25% (▼12)

Atlantic Division

 1       Florida Panthers              82% (▲15)
 2       Boston Bruins                 70% (▲4)
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           50% (▼14)
 4       Tampa Bay Lightning           47% (▼8)
 5       Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        35% (▼3)
 6       Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           31% (▼2)
 7       Ottawa Senators (▼2)          30% (▼15)
 8       Montreal Canadiens            16% (▼6)

Central Division

 1       St. Louis Blues (▲2)          82% (▲16)
 2       Minnesota Wild (▼1)           74% (▼2)
 3       Colorado Avalanche (▼2)       70% (▼6)
 4 (tie) Dallas Stars                  52% (▲8)
 4 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲2)            52% (▲13)
 6       Nashville Predators (▼1)      42% (▲2)
 7       Arizona Coyotes (▼1)          23% (▼16)
 8       Chicago Blackhawks            16% (▼15)

Pacific Division

 1       Edmonton Oilers               86% (▲14)
 2       San Jose Sharks (▲1)          64% (▲17)
 3       Calgary Flames (▲1)           55% (▲11)
 4       Vegas Golden Knights (▼2)     50% (▼20)
 5       Vancouver Canucks (▲2)        48% (▲8)
 6       Los Angeles Kings             32% (▼9)
 7       Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            30% (▼5)
 8       Seattle Kraken (▼3)           25% (▼17)

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Florida Panthers (▲3)         12% (▲5)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           11% (▲3)
 3       Edmonton Oilers (▲3)          10% (▲4)
 4 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼3)      9%
 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲5)          9% (▲4)
 6       Washington Capitals           8% (▲2)
 7       Boston Bruins (▼1)            6%
 8       Minnesota Wild (▼6)           5% (▼3)
 9 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼5)       4% (▼3)
 9 (tie) New York Rangers (▲3)         4% (▲1)
11 (tie) New York Islanders (▲3)       3% (▲1)
11 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲3)          3% (▲1)
13 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲5)           2% (▲1)
13 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      2% (▼1)
13 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼4)      2% (▼3)
16 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲2)           1%
16 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2)    1%
16 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲2)             1%
16 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲2)        1%
16 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲2)      1%
16 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲2)        1%
16 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▼2)          1% (▼1)
16 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼2)      1% (▼1)
16 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲2)        1%
16 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼7)     1% (▼4)
16 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲2)            1%

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      7% (▲1)
 1 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲4)          7% (▲2)
 1 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲4)         7% (▲2)
 4 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼2)      6%
 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲7)          6% (▲2)
 4 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲1)      6% (▲1)
 7 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼2)            5%
 7 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼6)       5% (▼2)
 7 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼5)           5% (▼1)
10 (tie) New York Islanders (▲4)       4% (▲2)
10 (tie) New York Rangers (▲2)         4% (▲1)
12 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲2)           3% (▲1)
12 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲2)          3% (▲1)
12 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           3%
12 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼7)      3% (▼2)
12 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼7)     3% (▼2)
12 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲2)            3% (▲1)
18 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼4)             2%
18 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼4)        2%
18 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼4)      2%
18 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼4)      2%
18 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼4)        2%
23 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲6)            1%
23 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▼9)          1% (▼1)
23 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲6)           1%
23 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲6)       1%
23 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼9)    1% (▼1)
23 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼9)        1% (▼1)
23 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲6)       1%
23 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼9)        1% (▼1)
23 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▼9)          1% (▼1)
23 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▼9)           1% (▼1)

 

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – October 17, 2021

Hockey playerThe NHL season has started!  The first game of the season was last Tuesday, and saw Pittsburgh defeat the defending Stanley Cup champions Tampa Bay.  That day also saw the newest team in the league, the Seattle Kraken, play their first game — they lost, 4-3, to Vegas.  The next night saw the classic Canadian match-up, with Toronto beating Montreal 2-1.  As usual, this meant Toronto continued to be first overall in the NHL — we’ll see how long that lasts!

We introduced uncertainty into our McDonald NHL Power Ratings models, and as a result, there have been a lot of changes to the ratings as the models calibrate themselves.  We expect things to settle down with accurate ratings after the teams have played about 10 games, so that should be in a couple of weeks.

Despite the uncertainty, our top 5 rated teams almost stayed the same as last week.  Colorado retains the number one ranking, having a win and a loss this week, and Pittsburgh stays in the second spot, after having two wins and one overtime loss.  Carolina has now moved into third spot, up two from last week, with two wins.  Washington, who was ranked fourth in the preseason, is still in fourth, having one win and one OTL.  Rounding out the top 5 is Minnesota, who won both of their games this week, and moved up from 9th spot in our preseason rankings.  Dropping out of the top 5 was Vegas, who were tied with Pittsburgh at number two last week, but have dropped four spots to 6th, putting them in a tie with Boston.  Vegas had a win and a loss last week.

How about the two Stanley Cup finalists from last year?  Tampa Bay, last year’s champions, are currently ranked 12th, after losing their opener to Pittsburgh, but winning their next two in overtime against Detroit and Washington.  The runner up, Montreal, is ranked 30th out of 32 teams, having started the season with three straight losses.  Despite the uncertainty in our models, we’re still only giving Montreal a 22% chance of making the playoffs.

The Top 5

1. Colorado Avalanche (1555, ▼4)

Record: 1-1-0, 3rd in Central Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 76%
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 7% (▼3)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 7%

Last week: 1-1-0

  • October 13: Won 4-2 vs. Chicago Blackhawks (29th, 1465)
  • October 16: Lost 5-3 vs. St. Louis Blues (11th, 1519)

Next week:

  • October 19: @ Washington Capitals (4th, 1542)
  • October 21: @ Florida Panthers (9th, 1534)
  • October 23: @ Tampa Bay Lightning (12th, 1514)

2. Pittsburgh Penguins (1552, ▲13)

Record: 2-0-1, 1st in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 73% (▲7)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 9% (▲3)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▲1)

Last week: 2-0-1

  • October 12: Won 6-2 @ Tampa Bay Lightning (12th, 1514)
  • October 14: Lost in OT 5-4 @ Florida Panthers (9th, 1534)
  • October 16: Won 5-2 vs. Chicago Blackhawks (29th, 1465)

Next week:

  • October 19: vs. Dallas Stars (18th, 1486)
  • October 23: vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (8th, 1535)

3. Carolina Hurricanes ▲2 (1547, ▲13)

Record: 2-0-0, 3rd in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 72% (▲9)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 8% (▲2)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▲1)

Last week: 2-0-0

  • October 14: Won 6-3 vs. New York Islanders (14th, 1501)
  • October 16: Won 3-2 @ Nashville Predators (17th, 1488)

Next week:

  • October 21: @ Montreal Canadiens (30th, 1463)
  • October 23: @ Columbus Blue Jackets (26th, 1472)

4. Washington Capitals (1542, ▲5)

Record: 1-0-1, 4th in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 67% (▲2)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 6%
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 5%

Last week: 1-0-1

  • October 13: Won 5-1 vs. New York Rangers (13th, 1510)
  • October 16: Lost in OT 2-1 vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (12th, 1514)

Next week:

  • October 19: vs. Colorado Avalanche (1st, 1555)
  • October 21: @ New Jersey Devils (28th, 1470)
  • October 23: vs. Calgary Flames (20th, 1483)

5. Minnesota Wild ▲4 (1540, ▲14)

Record: 2-0-0, 1st in Central Division

Chances of: 

  • Making the playoffs: 76% (▲13)
  • Winning the President’s Trophy: 8% (▲3)
  • Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▲2)

Last week: 2-0-0

  • October 15: Won 2-1 @ Anaheim Ducks (32nd, 1459)
  • October 16: Won 3-2 @ Los Angeles Kings (24th, 1474)

Next week:

  • October 19: vs. Winnipeg Jets (19th, 1484)
  • October 23: vs. Anaheim Ducks (32nd, 1459)
  • October 24: vs. Nashville Predators (17th, 1488)

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from our preseason report.

Overall Ratings

 1       Colorado Avalanche            1555 (▼4)
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins           1552 (▲13)
 3       Carolina Hurricanes (▲2)      1547 (▲13)
 4       Washington Capitals           1542 (▲5)
 5       Minnesota Wild (▲4)           1540 (▲14)
 6 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲1)            1536 (▲6)
 6 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼4)     1536 (▼3)
 8       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼2)      1535 (▲4)
 9       Florida Panthers (▼1)         1534 (▲6)
10       Edmonton Oilers               1529 (▲4)
11       St. Louis Blues (▲2)          1519 (▲9)
12       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      1514 (▼7)
13       New York Rangers (▲1)         1510 (▲1)
14       New York Islanders (▼2)       1501 (▼12)
15       Ottawa Senators (▲5)          1494 (▲9)
16       Philadelphia Flyers (▲2)      1489 (▼1)
17       Nashville Predators (▼2)      1488 (▼16)
18       Dallas Stars (▼2)             1486 (▼12)
19       Winnipeg Jets (▼3)            1484 (▼14)
20       Calgary Flames (▼1)           1483 (▼6)
21       Detroit Red Wings (▲5)        1479 (▲7)
22       San Jose Sharks (▲5)          1478 (▲7)
23       Arizona Coyotes (▼1)          1477 (▼6)
24 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        1474 (▲1)
24 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲5)           1474 (▲5)
26       Columbus Blue Jackets (▲4)    1472 (▲6)
27       Vancouver Canucks (▼4)        1471 (▼4)
28       New Jersey Devils (▼1)        1470 (▼1)
29       Chicago Blackhawks (▼5)       1465 (▼9)
30       Montreal Canadiens (▼9)       1463 (▼21)
31       Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           1461 (▲6)
32       Anaheim Ducks (▼1)            1459 (▲1)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Pittsburgh Penguins           25% (▲5)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      24% (▲6)
 3       Washington Capitals (▼1)      19%
 4       New York Rangers (▲1)         9% (▼3)
 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2)    6% (▲1)
 5 (tie) New York Islanders (▼1)       6% (▼7)
 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      6% (▼2)
 8       New Jersey Devils (▼1)        5%

Atlantic Division

 1       Florida Panthers (▲2)         22% (▲4)
 2       Boston Bruins (▼1)            21% (▲2)
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼2)      19%
 4       Tampa Bay Lightning           14% (▼2)
 5       Ottawa Senators               9% (▲1)
 6       Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        7% (▲1)
 7       Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           5% (▲1)
 8       Montreal Canadiens (▼3)       3% (▼5)

Central Division

 1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            27% (▼1)
 1 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲1)           27% (▲10)
 3       St. Louis Blues               18% (▲6)
 4       Dallas Stars (▲1)             7% (▼3)
 5 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲2)          6% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼1)      6% (▼5)
 5 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 6% (▼4)
 8       Chicago Blackhawks            4% (▼2)

Pacific Division

 1       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          27% (▲5)
 2       Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     24% (▼3)
 3       San Jose Sharks (▲3)          10% (▲2)
 4       Calgary Flames (▼1)           9% (▼3)
 5 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        8% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲1)           8%
 7       Vancouver Canucks (▼3)        7% (▼2)
 8       Anaheim Ducks                 6%

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1       Pittsburgh Penguins           73% (▲7)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      72% (▲9)
 3       Washington Capitals (▼1)      67% (▲2)
 4       New York Rangers (▲1)         49% (▼3)
 5       New York Islanders (▼1)       40% (▼15)
 6       Philadelphia Flyers           39% (▼3)
 7       Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    37% (▲5)
 8       New Jersey Devils (▼1)        33% (▼1)

Atlantic Division

 1       Florida Panthers (▲2)         67% (▲6)
 2       Boston Bruins (▼1)            66% (▲3)
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼2)      64% (▲1)
 4       Tampa Bay Lightning           55% (▼3)
 5       Ottawa Senators               45% (▲4)
 6       Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        38% (▲2)
 7       Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           33% (▲5)
 8       Montreal Canadiens (▼3)       22% (▼19)

Central Division

 1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            76%
 1 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲1)           76% (▲13)
 3       St. Louis Blues               66% (▲11)
 4       Dallas Stars (▲1)             44% (▼5)
 5       Nashville Predators (▼1)      40% (▼12)
 6 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲1)          39% (▼3)
 6 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            39% (▼10)
 8       Chicago Blackhawks            31% (▼7)

Pacific Division

 1       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          72% (▲7)
 2       Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     70%
 3       San Jose Sharks (▲3)          47% (▲8)
 4       Calgary Flames (▼1)           44% (▼4)
 5       Seattle Kraken (▲2)           42% (▲4)
 6       Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        41% (▲1)
 7       Vancouver Canucks (▼3)        40% (▼1)
 8       Anaheim Ducks                 35% (▲1)

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      9% (▲3)
 2 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           8% (▲2)
 2 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲4)           8% (▲3)
 4 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼3)       7% (▼3)
 4 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲2)         7% (▲2)
 6 (tie) Boston Bruins                 6% (▲1)
 6 (tie) Edmonton Oilers               6% (▲1)
 6 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼4)      6%
 9 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲4)          5% (▲2)
 9 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼3)      5%
 9 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼7)     5% (▼1)
12 (tie) New York Rangers (▲1)         3%
12 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      3% (▼1)
14 (tie) New York Islanders (▼3)       2% (▼2)
14 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲2)          2%
14 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲2)      2%
14 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲9)          2% (▲1)
18 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲5)            1%
18 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▼2)          1% (▼1)
18 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲5)           1%
18 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼2)           1% (▼1)
18 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲5)       1%
18 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲5)    1%
18 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼2)             1% (▼1)
18 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲5)        1%
18 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲5)        1%
18 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼5)      1% (▼2)
18 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲5)        1%
18 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲5)           1%
18 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲5)        1%
18 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼2)            1% (▼1)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            7%
 2 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      6% (▲1)
 2 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲7)           6% (▲2)
 2 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      6% (▲1)
 5 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼2)            5%
 5 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼2)          5%
 5 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲4)         5% (▲1)
 5 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼2)      5%
 5 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼3)     5% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼2)      5%
11       St. Louis Blues (▲1)          4% (▲1)
12 (tie) New York Rangers              3%
12 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼3)      3% (▼1)
14 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲4)          2%
14 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲4)           2%
14 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲16)   2% (▲1)
14 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼2)             2% (▼1)
14 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲4)        2%
14 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲4)        2%
14 (tie) New York Islanders (▼2)       2% (▼1)
14 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼2)      2% (▼1)
14 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲4)        2%
14 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲4)          2%
14 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲4)      2%
14 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲4)          2%
14 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲4)           2%
14 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲4)        2%
14 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼2)            2% (▼1)
29 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            1%
29 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           1%
29 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▼11)      1% (▼1)
29 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▼11)      1% (▼1)

 

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – Preseason Report

Hockey playerAh, the NHL season is about to start!  The team at McDonald NHL Power Ratings has updated our models and run our simulations, and we’ve come up with our predictions for the upcoming season.

Be aware that things have changed from last year — players have moved, retired, or come into the league, there’s a brand new team, the division alignments are back to how they were before last year’s COVID-shortened season.  As a result, we’ve added uncertainty into our models; that results in the initial ratings being lower than they might otherwise be, but they’ll eventually sort themselves out.  Our experience has been that after the first 10 games, our ratings have adjusted to the new reality.

Our rankings might seem a little surprising — last year’s Stanley Cup winning Tampa Bay Lightning are ranked 11th, and we’re only giving them a 4% chance of repeating for the third time.  We’ll see if they’ll prove us wrong!  The other Cup finals team, Montreal, is ranked 21st, and we’re giving them just a 2% chance of winning the Cup.  In fact, we’re only giving them a 41% chance of even making the playoffs!  They did just barely squeak in last year, and then had an incredible run behind their star goaltender, Carey Price.  But, we’ll see what happens.

The most-likely Canadian teams to win the Cup are the Toronto Maple Leafs and Edmonton Oilers, both at 5%.  We really should update our models to automatically give the Leafs no chance of winning, but maybe this is the year….

Our favourites to win the Stanley Cup this year are the Colorado Avalanche.  We’re currently giving them a 7% chance of winning, closely followed by Vegas with 6%.  The teams at the bottom are ABC — Anaheim, Buffalo, and Columbus (1% chance each of winning).  We’re even giving the new team, the Seattle Kraken, a better chance of winning, at 2%

Anyways, here’s the rankings and ratings.

Overall Ratings

 1       Colorado Avalanche            1559
 2 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins           1539
 2 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          1539
 4       Washington Capitals           1537
 5       Carolina Hurricanes           1534
 6       Toronto Maple Leafs           1531
 7       Boston Bruins                 1530
 8       Florida Panthers              1528
 9       Minnesota Wild                1526
10       Edmonton Oilers               1525
11       Tampa Bay Lightning           1521
12       New York Islanders            1513
13       St. Louis Blues               1510
14       New York Rangers              1509
15       Nashville Predators           1504
16 (tie) Dallas Stars                  1498
16 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 1498
18       Philadelphia Flyers           1490
19       Calgary Flames                1489
20       Ottawa Senators               1485
21       Montreal Canadiens            1484
22       Arizona Coyotes               1483
23       Vancouver Canucks             1475
24       Chicago Blackhawks            1474
25       Los Angeles Kings             1473
26       Detroit Red Wings             1472
27 (tie) New Jersey Devils             1471
27 (tie) San Jose Sharks               1471
29       Seattle Kraken                1469
30       Columbus Blue Jackets         1466
31       Anaheim Ducks                 1458
32       Buffalo Sabres                1455

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Pittsburgh Penguins           20%
 2       Washington Capitals           19%
 3       Carolina Hurricanes           18%
 4       New York Islanders            13%
 5       New York Rangers              12%
 6       Philadelphia Flyers           8%
 7 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         5%
 7 (tie) New Jersey Devils             5%

Atlantic Division

 1 (tie) Boston Bruins                 19%
 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           19%
 3       Florida Panthers              18%
 4       Tampa Bay Lightning           16%
 5 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            8%
 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators               8%
 7       Detroit Red Wings             6%
 8       Buffalo Sabres                4%

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            28%
 2       Minnesota Wild                17%
 3       St. Louis Blues               12%
 4       Nashville Predators           11%
 5 (tie) Dallas Stars                  10%
 5 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 10%
 7       Arizona Coyotes               7%
 8       Chicago Blackhawks            6%

Pacific Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          27%
 2       Edmonton Oilers               22%
 3       Calgary Flames                12%
 4 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             9%
 4 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             9%
 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks               8%
 6 (tie) Seattle Kraken                8%
 8       Anaheim Ducks                 6%

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1       Pittsburgh Penguins           66%
 2       Washington Capitals           65%
 3       Carolina Hurricanes           63%
 4       New York Islanders            55%
 5       New York Rangers              52%
 6       Philadelphia Flyers           42%
 7       New Jersey Devils             34%
 8       Columbus Blue Jackets         32%

Atlantic Division

 1 (tie) Boston Bruins                 63%
 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           63%
 3       Florida Panthers              61%
 4       Tampa Bay Lightning           58%
 5 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            41%
 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators               41%
 7       Detroit Red Wings             36%
 8       Buffalo Sabres                28%

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            76%
 2       Minnesota Wild                63%
 3       St. Louis Blues               55%
 4       Nashville Predators           52%
 5 (tie) Dallas Stars                  49%
 5 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 49%
 7       Arizona Coyotes               42%
 8       Chicago Blackhawks            38%

Pacific Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          70%
 2       Edmonton Oilers               65%
 3       Calgary Flames                48%
 4       Vancouver Canucks             41%
 5       Los Angeles Kings             40%
 6       San Jose Sharks               39%
 7       Seattle Kraken                38%
 8       Anaheim Ducks                 34%

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Colorado Avalanche            10%
 2 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           6%
 2 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins           6%
 2 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          6%
 2 (tie) Washington Capitals           6%
 6 (tie) Boston Bruins                 5%
 6 (tie) Edmonton Oilers               5%
 6 (tie) Florida Panthers              5%
 6 (tie) Minnesota Wild                5%
 6 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           5%
11 (tie) New York Islanders            4%
11 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           4%
13 (tie) New York Rangers              3%
13 (tie) Nashville Predators           3%
13 (tie) St. Louis Blues               3%
16 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               2%
16 (tie) Calgary Flames                2%
16 (tie) Dallas Stars                  2%
16 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            2%
16 (tie) Ottawa Senators               2%
16 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           2%
16 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 2%
23 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 1%
23 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                1%
23 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            1%
23 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         1%
23 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             1%
23 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             1%
23 (tie) New Jersey Devils             1%
23 (tie) San Jose Sharks               1%
23 (tie) Seattle Kraken                1%
23 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             1%

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            7%
 2       Vegas Golden Knights          6%
 3 (tie) Boston Bruins                 5%
 3 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           5%
 3 (tie) Edmonton Oilers               5%
 3 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins           5%
 3 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           5%
 3 (tie) Washington Capitals           5%
 9 (tie) Florida Panthers              4%
 9 (tie) Minnesota Wild                4%
 9 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           4%
12 (tie) Dallas Stars                  3%
12 (tie) New York Islanders            3%
12 (tie) New York Rangers              3%
12 (tie) Nashville Predators           3%
12 (tie) St. Louis Blues               3%
12 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 3%
18 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               2%
18 (tie) Calgary Flames                2%
18 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            2%
18 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             2%
18 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             2%
18 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            2%
18 (tie) New Jersey Devils             2%
18 (tie) Ottawa Senators               2%
18 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           2%
18 (tie) San Jose Sharks               2%
18 (tie) Seattle Kraken                2%
18 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             2%
30 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 1%
30 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                1%
30 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         1%

 

McDonald CFL Power Ratings – Week 12

CFL logoThis week saw a return to a typical 4 game weekend.  The first game was Friday night, featuring the top two teams in the East, Toronto (1st place with a 6-3 record) visiting Montreal (2nd place with a 5-4 record).  Both teams were riding 3 game winning streaks coming into this game, but it was Montreal prevailing with a convincing 37-16 over Toronto.  The star of the game was Alouettes’ running back William Stanback, who rushed for 203 yards and one touchdown.  Although Toronto quarterback McLeod Bethel-Thompson was 24-for-38 for 268 yards, he didn’t throw any touchdowns and was picked off four times.  The teams are now tied atop the East with identical 6-4 records.

On a triple-header Saturday, there were two blowouts and one close game.  In the first game of the day, Hamilton hosted bottom-dwelling Ottawa, and they weren’t good hosts, as Hamilton thumped Ottawa 32-3.  Hamilton quarterback Jeremiah Masoli threw for 320 yards and two touchdowns, while backup quarterback Dane Evans, used in short-yardage situations, added a couple more rushing touchdowns.  The game was 0-0 after one quarter, but Hamilton got rolling from there.

The second game of the day resulted in the second blowout of the day, as Winnipeg also were lousy hosts, destroying British Columbia 45-0.  With the win, Winnipeg clinches first place in the West Division.  The Blue Bombers took the lead 15-0 after the first quarter with two touchdowns and a rouge (arguably the most exciting play in Canadian football), and added another rouge in the second quarter.  And on the last play of the game, not satisfied with a 44-0 lead, they added yet another rouge to finish off the scoring!  Quarterback Zach Collaros threw for three touchdowns in the victory.

The third game of the day featured two teams seemingly headed in opposite directions.  Home team Calgary were on a 3 game winning streak, while Saskatchewan had lost their last 2 games, both to Calgary.  But, both of those Saskatchewan / Calgary games were close, with the Stampeders winning on the last play of the game in the previous one, and the Riders getting picked off on the last play of the game while trying to take the lead the week before that.  This was another close on, as Saskatchewan defeated Calgary 20-17.  Rider quarterback Cody Fajardo completed 21 of 26 passes, including two second-half touchdowns, to lead them to victory.  In a losing cause, Stampeders quarterback Bo Levi Mitchell passed Henry Burris as the all-time Calgary completions leader, completing 21 passes for 311 yards.  With these two teams the most likely to face each other in the Western Semi-Final, it should make for an exciting game!

Week 12 Results

Toronto 16  at Montreal 37
Ottawa 3  at Hamilton 32
British Columbia 0  at Winnipeg 45
Saskatchewan 20  at Calgary 17

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

Winnipeg, who clinched first place in the West Division this week, remains at the top of our rankings.  With their road win over Calgary, Saskatchewan has moved back into 2nd spot.  With Montreal’s win over Toronto, Montreal moved into 3rd, while Toronto dropped back down to 6th.  Note, though, that Montreal, Hamilton, and Calgary are separated by only 5 rating points, so really, it’s a little too close to say who is actually the better team among those three.  Ottawa has dropped below the 1400 mark, which marks a really bad team.  Let’s hope they can turn things around.

Ranking Team Rating Record
1 Winnipeg 1619 (▲6) 10-1, 1st West
2 (▲1) Saskatchewan 1540 (▲14) 6-4, 2nd West
3 (▲3) Montreal 1519 (▲11) 6-4, T-1st East
4 (▲1) Hamilton 1518 (▲7) 5-5, 3rd East
5 (▼3) Calgary 1514 (▼14) 5-6, 3rd West
6 (▼2) Toronto 1506 (▼11) 6-4, T-1st East
7 British Columbia 1463 (▼6) 4-6, 4th West
8 Edmonton 1446 2-7, 5th West
9 Ottawa 1399 (▼7) 2-9, 4th East

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg remains the favourite to win the Grey Cup, at 41% probability!  With their win over Toronto, Montreal now moves up into 2nd with a 15% chance, dropping Toronto to 3rd (14%).  Ottawa has been eliminated from the playoffs.  Despite being ranked 2nd in the McDonald CFL Power Ratings, Saskatchewan only has a 10% chance of winning; that’s the problem of being in the same division as the powerful Blue Bombers.  But, anything can happen in the playoffs!

Grey Cup Ranking Team Rating Win Grey Cup
1 Winnipeg 1619 41% (▲1)
2 (▲1) Montreal 1519 15% (▲3)
3 (▼1) Toronto 1506 14% (▼4)
4 Hamilton 1518 14% (▲2)
5 Saskatchewan 1540 10% (▲2)
6 Calgary 1514 5% (▼3)
7 British Columbia 1463 2%
8 Edmonton 1446 <1%
9 Ottawa 1399 —

Our Full Predictions

Winnipeg has clinched the West Division, while Ottawa has been eliminated from the playoffs.  Why haven’t the other three Eastern teams clinched playoff spots?  It’s because Western teams still have a chance to make the cross-over, although it’s a slim chance.

Team Rating Make Playoffs Host Playoff Game Win Division Make Division Final Make Grey Cup Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg

10-1, 1st in West

 1619 ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ 67% 41%
Montreal

6-4, T-1st in East

 1519 >99% 75% 35% 69% 35% 15%
Toronto

6-4, T-1st in East

 1506 99% 77% 45% 71% 36% 14%
Hamilton

5-5, 3rd in East

 1518 93% 48% 20% 56% 28% 14%
Saskatchewan

6-4, 2nd in West

 1540 97% 80% — 57% 19% 10%
Calgary

5-6, 3rd in West

 1514 65% 16% — 29% 10% 5%
British Columbia

4-6, 4th in West

 1463 40% 2% — 14% 4% 2%
Edmonton

2-7, 5th in West

 1446 5% 1% — 2% 1% <1%
Ottawa

2-9, 4th in East

 1399 — — — — — —

Week 13 Game Predictions

Friday: Calgary (58%) at Ottawa (41%)
Friday: Hamilton (52%) at Edmonton (47%)
Saturday: British Columbia (37%) at Toronto (62%)
Saturday: Saskatchewan (46%) at Montreal (53%)

McDonald CFL Power Ratings – Week 11

CFL logoIt was a little slower week in the CFL, with only three games, as opposed to last week’s 5 games.  In Friday night’s game, the West’s top team, Winnipeg, visited last-in-the-West Edmonton.  In a closer game than expected, Winnipeg beat Edmonton 26-16.  The game was tied at 16 after three quarters, but Winnipeg put another touchdown and a field goal on the board, while their defense shut out Edmonton — Winnipeg hasn’t given up a touchdown in the fourth quarter yet this season!  Winnipeg is now 9-1, their best start since 1960.

There were two games on Saturday.  In the first, Montreal defeated lowly Ottawa 27-16.  Matthew Shiltz, Montreal’s quarterback, threw for 281 yards in his first start of the season.  Montreal’s defense recorded 10 (yes, 10!!!) sacks in the game.  With the score at 25-13 in Montreal’s favour at the half, there were only 5 more points scored in the second half, three on a field goal for Ottawa in the 3rd quarter, and 2 for Montreal on a safety in the fourth.

In the last game of the week, Calgary powered past British Columbia, 39-10.  This was Calgary’s third straight win, and moved them into 2nd place in the West, tied with Saskatchewan, although the Riders do have a game in hand.  British Columbia has lost three straight, all at home, and have now dropped out of a playoff spot.  Things don’t look much better for them coming up, as they head to Winnipeg next week, while Calgary will host Saskatchewan; that will be Saskatchewan’s third game in a row against Calgary, as they had a bye this week.

Week 11 Results

Winnipeg 26  at Edmonton 16
Montreal 27  at Ottawa 16
Calgary 39  at British Columbia 10

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

Winnipeg remains on top of the McDonald CFL Power Rankings, with a season-high rating of 1613, far ahead of any other team.  But, this is the CFL, and anything can happen!  With their win, Calgary moved up to 2nd spot, pushing Saskatchewan down into 3rd, although they are only 2 rating points ahead of the Riders.  With Montreal’s win, there are now 6 teams with higher than a 1500 rating.  Ottawa continues to dwell in the cellar.

Ranking Team Rating Record
1 Winnipeg 1613 (▲9) 9-1, 1st West
2 (▲2) Calgary 1528 (▲13) 5-5, T-2nd West
3 (▼1) Saskatchewan 1526 5-4, T-2nd West
4 (▼1) Toronto 1517 6-3, 1st East
5 Hamilton 1511 4-5, 3rd East
6 Montreal 1508 (▲12) 5-4, 2nd East
7 British Columbia 1469 (▼13) 4-5, 4th West
8 Edmonton 1446 (▼9) 2-7, 5th West
9 Ottawa 1406 (▼11) 2-8, 4th East

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg is just so much better than any other team in the league this year.  Based on that, we’re now giving them a 40% chance of winning the Grey Cup.  Toronto continues to be the top team in the East, but with only an 18% chance of winning.  Edmonton and Ottawa now have less than a 1% chance of winning, but they’re not completely eliminated yet!

Grey Cup Ranking Team Rating Win Grey Cup
1 Winnipeg 1613 40% (▲1)
2 Toronto 1517 18% (▲1)
3 (▲1) Montreal 1508 12% (▲2)
4 (▼1) Hamilton 1511 12%
5 Saskatchewan 1526 8% (▼1)
6 Calgary 1528 8% (▲2)
7 British Columbia 1469 2% (▼2)
8 Edmonton 1446 <1% (▼1)
9 Ottawa 1406 <1%

Our Full Predictions

According to our calculations, Winnipeg is guaranteed at least 2nd place in the West, so they will definitely be hosting a playoff game.  In fact, we’re giving them a greater than 99% chance of winning the Western Division!  British Columbia, Edmonton, and Ottawa are unable to win their divisions, but they all still have a chance of making the playoffs, although we’re only giving Ottawa a 1% chance of that happening.

Team Rating Make Playoffs Host Playoff Game Win Division Make Division Final Make Grey Cup Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg
9-1,
1st in West		 1613 ✔ ✔ >99% >99% 66% 40%
Toronto
6-3,
1st in East		 1517 99% 89% 67% 83% 45% 18%
Montreal
5-4,
2nd in East		 1508 95% 63% 21% 58% 28% 12%
Hamilton
4-5
3rd in East		 1511 84% 48% 12% 50% 23% 12%
Saskatchewan
5-4,
T-2nd in West		 1526 89% 47% <1% 46% 16% 8%
Calgary
5-5,
T-2nd in West		 1528 82% 45% <1% 43% 15% 8%
British Columbia
4-5,
4th in West		 1469 43% 8% — 17% 6% 2%
Edmonton
2-7,
5th in West		 1446 7% 1% — 3% 1% <1%
Ottawa
2-8,
4th in East		 1406 1% <1% — <1% <1% <1%

Week 12 Game Predictions

Friday: Toronto (44%) at Montreal (55%)
Saturday: Ottawa (29%) at Hamilton (70%)
Saturday: British Columbia (25%) at Winnipeg (74%)
Saturday: Saskatchewan (43%) at Calgary (56%)