Category: predictions

Well, it finally happened — COVID hit the NHL this week.  Ottawa had 10 players and one coach test positive this week, and as a result, all of their games were postponed.  The virus didn’t spread to any other teams, so that’s a good thing.  Also, all of the positive tests were in people who were fully vaccinated, so the chances of someone getting seriously ill are pretty low.  But still, it just goes to show you that a 90% efficacy rate doesn’t mean 100% protection; this virus can spread like wildfire, even among fully vaccinated groups, so we all still need to be vigilant.

There was very little change among the top 5 this week.  All 5 teams from last week are still the top 5 teams this week, with a minor reshuffling in the positions, as Edmonton dropped from 3rd to 5th, and as a result, Florida and Colorado both moved up a position, to 3rd and 4th, respectively.

Carolina continues to be our top-ranked team.  They have a 14-2-0 record, and sit atop the Metropolitan Division.  They went 3-0-0 this week on the road, and are looking unstoppable.  We’re giving them a 96% chance of making the playoffs, even this early in the season, and they are our favourites to win both the President’s Trophy (30%!) and the Stanley Cup (11%).  They have three more games on the road, then return home next Sunday to play a key game against #2 Washington.

Washington is in second spot in our rankings again this week, despite not having a very good week.  They went 2-1-1 on a West Coast trip, with their overtime loss coming against Anaheim (19th) and their outright loss coming against lowly Seattle (31st!).  They did have two shutouts, though, against Los Angeles (23rd) and San Jose (22nd).  They have a tough week coming up, with their first game against 29th-ranked Montreal, but followed by games against 3rd-ranked Florida, then top-ranked Carolina.

Florida moved up a spot to 3rd in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings.  They won all three of their games this week, and sit in top spot in the Atlantic Division.  We’re giving them a 95% chance of making the playoffs.  They’ll have a test this week when they play 2nd-ranked Washington on the road on Friday.

Colorado moved up one spot in the rankings, from 5th to 4th.  They had a quiet and easy week, playing only two games, and those being wins against 30th-ranked Vancouver and 31st-ranked Seattle.  They are ranked 4th in our Ratings, but are in 5th place in the Central Division with an 8-5-1 record.  They were the top-ranked team at the end of the regular season last year, so we expect better of them, but they’ll need to improve their record to hold their ranking.  We’re only giving them an 82% chance of making the playoffs, but that is up 10% from last week.

Rounding out the top 5 is Edmonton, who dropped from 3rd last week.  They went 2-1-0 this week, losing in Winnipeg 5-2 then following it up with a 2-1 shootout win at home against those same 14th-ranked Jets.  Their final game of the week was a 5-2 victory over 26th-ranked Chicago.  We’re giving them a 91% chance of making the playoffs, but surprisingly, they are only in 2nd place in the Pacific Division!

Top spot in the Pacific Division belongs to Calgary, who had the biggest move in our rankings this week.  They went 3-0-1 this week, with all four games being on the road.  Two of their victories were shutouts!  Based on this week’s performance, we’ve moved them up to 7th in our rankings, up from 14th, and awarded them 25 additional McDonald NHL Power Ratings ranking points.

The worst performer of the week was the New York Islanders.  They lost all four of their games this week, and now are in last place in the Metropolitan Division with a 5-8-2 record.  They did have a tough week, facing Tampa Bay (ranked 11th), Florida (3rd), Calgary (7th), and Toronto (6th).  We’ve reduced their chances of making the playoffs, from 53% all the way down to 27%.  We’ve reduced their rating by a whopping 29 points.

There’s good news for Canadian fans (but not Canadiens fans).  3 of the top 7 teams are from Canada, with Edmonton in 5th, Toronto in 6th, and Calgary in 7th.  Sadly, Ottawa (27th), Montreal (29th) and Vancouver (30th) aren’t holding up their end.  But the other Canadian team, Winnipeg, is in the top half, at 14th.  Let’s keep hoping for a Canadian team to bring home our Stanley Cup!

The Top 5

1. Carolina Hurricanes (1593, ▲20)

Record: 14-2-0, 1st in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 96% (▲6)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 30% (▲11)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 11% (▲3)

Last week: 3-0-0

• November 16: Won 4-2 @ Vegas Golden Knights (9th, 1538)
• November 18: Won 2-1 @ Anaheim Ducks (19th, 1484)
• November 20: Won 5-4 @ Los Angeles Kings (23th, 1470)

Next week:

• November 22: @ San Jose Sharks (22th, 1475)
• November 24: @ Seattle Kraken (31th, 1432)
• November 26: @ Philadelphia Flyers (16th, 1506)
• November 28: vs. Washington Capitals (2nd, 1573)

2. Washington Capitals (1573, ▲2)

Record: 11-3-5, 2nd in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 87% (▲2)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 9% (▼2)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8%

Last week: 2-1-1

• November 16: Lost in OT 3-2 @ Anaheim Ducks (19th, 1484)
• November 17: Won 2-0 @ Los Angeles Kings (23th, 1470)
• November 20: Won 4-0 @ San Jose Sharks (22th, 1475)
• November 21: Lost 5-2 @ Seattle Kraken (31th, 1432)

Next week:

• November 24: vs. Montreal Canadiens (29th, 1437)
• November 26: vs. Florida Panthers (3rd, 1572)
• November 28: @ Carolina Hurricanes (1st, 1593)

3. Florida Panthers ▲1 (1572, ▲17)

Record: 13-2-3, 1st in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 95% (▲7)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 17% (▲5)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲2)

Last week: 3-0-0

• November 16: Won 6-1 vs. New York Islanders (18th, 1495)
• November 18: Won 4-1 vs. New Jersey Devils (20th, 1482)
• November 20: Won 5-4 vs. Minnesota Wild (12th, 1523)

Next week:

• November 24: vs. Philadelphia Flyers (16th, 1506)
• November 26: @ Washington Capitals (2nd, 1573)
• November 27: vs. Seattle Kraken (31th, 1432)

4. Colorado Avalanche ▲1 (1558, ▲12)

Record: 8-5-1, 5th in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 82% (▲10)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 4% (▲1)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲1)

Last week: 2-0-0

• November 17: Won 4-2 @ Vancouver Canucks (30th, 1436)
• November 19: Won 7-3 @ Seattle Kraken (31th, 1432)

Next week:

• November 22: vs. Ottawa Senators (27th, 1447)
• November 24: vs. Anaheim Ducks (19th, 1484)
• November 26: @ Dallas Stars (21th, 1477)
• November 27: vs. Nashville Predators (17th, 1498)

5. Edmonton Oilers ▼2 (1552, ▼4)

Record: 13-4-0, 2nd in Pacific Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 91% (▲2)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 9% (▼3)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7%

Last week: 2-1-0

• November 16: Lost 5-2 @ Winnipeg Jets (14th, 1513)
• November 18: Won in SO 2-1 vs. Winnipeg Jets (14th, 1513)
• November 20: Won 5-2 vs. Chicago Blackhawks (26th, 1451)

Next week:

• November 23: @ Dallas Stars (21th, 1477)
• November 24: @ Arizona Coyotes (32th, 1429)
• November 27: @ Vegas Golden Knights (9th, 1538)

 

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

Overall Ratings

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           1593 (▲20)
 2       Washington Capitals           1573 (▲2)
 3       Florida Panthers (▲1)         1572 (▲17)
 4       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       1558 (▲12)
 5       Edmonton Oilers (▼2)          1552 (▼4)
 6       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲2)      1547 (▲12)
 7       Calgary Flames (▲7)           1545 (▲25)
 8       New York Rangers (▼1)         1540 (▲3)
 9       Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     1538 (▲3)
10       Boston Bruins (▼4)            1537 (▼1)
11       Tampa Bay Lightning           1525 (▼4)
12       Minnesota Wild (▼2)           1523 (▼8)
13       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲5)      1516 (▲6)
14 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼2)          1513 (▼12)
14 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲2)            1513 (▲1)
16       Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      1506 (▼9)
17       Nashville Predators (▼1)      1498 (▼14)
18       New York Islanders (▼5)       1495 (▼29)
19       Anaheim Ducks                 1484 (▼5)
20       New Jersey Devils (▲2)        1482 (▲5)
21       Dallas Stars (▲3)             1477 (▲9)
22       San Jose Sharks (▼1)          1475 (▼3)
23       Los Angeles Kings (▼3)        1470 (▼15)
24       Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    1461 (▲2)
25       Detroit Red Wings (▼2)        1454 (▼19)
26       Chicago Blackhawks (▲4)       1451 (▲11)
27       Ottawa Senators (▼1)          1447
28       Buffalo Sabres (▼1)           1444 (▼2)
29       Montreal Canadiens            1437 (▼4)
30       Vancouver Canucks (▼2)        1436 (▼6)
31       Seattle Kraken                1432 (▼4)
32       Arizona Coyotes               1429 (▲13)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           56% (▲17)
 2       Washington Capitals           22% (▼5)
 3       New York Rangers              12% (▼2)
 4 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      3% (▼3)
 4 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2)      3%
 6       New Jersey Devils (▲1)        2%
 7 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    1%
 7 (tie) New York Islanders (▼3)       1% (▼6)

Atlantic Division

 1       Florida Panthers              53% (▲12)
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs           20% (▲1)
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning           13% (▼4)
 4       Boston Bruins (▼1)            12% (▼5)
 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           1%
 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             1% (▼3)
 7 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
 7 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       32% (▲12)
 2       Minnesota Wild (▼1)           21% (▼6)
 3       Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            18% (▲2)
 4       St. Louis Blues (▼1)          14% (▼5)
 5       Nashville Predators           9% (▼6)
 6       Dallas Stars                  4% (▲1)
 7       Chicago Blackhawks            1%
 8       Arizona Coyotes               <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Edmonton Oilers               39% (▼5)
 2       Calgary Flames                33% (▲15)
 3       Vegas Golden Knights          16% (▼1)
 4       Anaheim Ducks                 7% (▼2)
 5 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             3% (▼4)
 5 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1)          3% (▼2)
 7 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲1)           <1%
 7 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             <1% (▼1)

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           96% (▲6)
 2       Washington Capitals           87% (▲2)
 3       New York Rangers              76% (▲5)
 4       Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      48% (▼4)
 5       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      45% (▲7)
 6       New Jersey Devils (▲1)        36% (▲4)
 7 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    27% (▲3)
 7 (tie) New York Islanders (▼3)       27% (▼26)

Atlantic Division

 1       Florida Panthers              95% (▲7)
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs           81% (▲10)
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning           71% (▲3)
 4       Boston Bruins (▼1)            69% (▲1)
 5       Detroit Red Wings             16% (▼16)
 6       Buffalo Sabres                14% (▼3)
 7       Ottawa Senators               7%
 8       Montreal Canadiens            3% (▼2)

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche (▲2)       82% (▲10)
 2       Minnesota Wild (▼1)           74% (▼5)
 3       Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            69% (▲1)
 4       St. Louis Blues (▼2)          64% (▼9)
 5       Nashville Predators           54% (▼12)
 6       Dallas Stars                  37% (▲8)
 7       Chicago Blackhawks            15% (▲5)
 8       Arizona Coyotes               4% (▲2)

Pacific Division

 1       Edmonton Oilers               91% (▲2)
 2       Calgary Flames                89% (▲16)
 3       Vegas Golden Knights          76% (▲5)
 4       Anaheim Ducks                 57%
 5       San Jose Sharks (▲1)          37% (▼3)
 6       Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        35% (▼14)
 7       Vancouver Canucks             9% (▼4)
 8       Seattle Kraken                7% (▼1)

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           30% (▲11)
 2       Florida Panthers              17% (▲5)
 3 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          9% (▼3)
 3 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲1)      9% (▼2)
 5       Calgary Flames (▲4)           6% (▲3)
 6 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲3)       4% (▲1)
 6 (tie) New York Rangers (▼1)         4% (▼1)
 6 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1)      4%
 9       Tampa Bay Lightning           3%
10 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼3)            2% (▼2)
10 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼5)           2% (▼3)
10 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     2% (▼1)
10 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            2% (▼1)
14 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲4)            1%
14 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲1)      1% (▼1)
14 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      1% (▼1)
14 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲4)      1%
14 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼5)          1% (▼2)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           11% (▲3)
 2 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲2)         8% (▲2)
 2 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼1)      8%
 4 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            7% (▲1)
 4 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          7%
 6       Calgary Flames (▲4)           6% (▲2)
 7 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      5%
 7 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     5%
 9 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼3)            4% (▼1)
 9 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼3)           4% (▼1)
 9 (tie) New York Rangers (▲1)         4%
 9 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      4%
13 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼3)          3% (▼1)
13 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼3)            3% (▼1)
15 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲3)            2%
15 (tie) Nashville Predators           2% (▼1)
15 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           2% (▼1)
15 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲3)      2%
19 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲8)       1% (▲1)
19 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲3)    1%
19 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲3)             1%
19 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲3)        1%
19 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        1% (▼1)
19 (tie) New York Islanders (▼4)       1% (▼2)
19 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲3)        1%
19 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼1)          1% (▼1)
27 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1%
27 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▼5)           <1% (▼1)
27 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%
27 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1%
27 (tie) Seattle Kraken                <1%
27 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             <1%

 

There was little movement in the top 5 in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings this week, with only one team moving in, and minor shuffling occurring.  Carolina remains the top ranked team, Washington has moved up two spots to 2nd, leaving Edmonton in 3rd and pushing Florida to 4th.  New to the top 5 this week is Colorado, as they re-enter at 5th, while St. Louis dropped out of the top 5, and fell all the way to 12th.

Colorado is currently sitting atop the Metropolitan Division with an 11-2-0 record.  This week, they won twice (once in overtime) but lost a close 2-1 game to Philadelphia.  Their rating has dropped slightly, but not enough to move them out of top spot.

Washington had a huge week this week, going 4-0-0, although all their wins were against teams in the bottom half of our rankings.  They defeated Buffalo (27th), Detroit (23rd), Columbus (25th), and Pittsburgh (18th).  Still, the four wins were good enough to give them a 25 point jump in our ratings, just two rating points behind Carolina.  Washington trails Carolina in the Metropolitan Division; both have 22 points, but Washington has played two more games than Carolina, and Carolina has more wins (11 vs. 9).  Washington has another four-game week this week, again against bottom-half teams: Anaheim (19th), Los Angeles (20th), San Jose (21st), and Seattle (31st).

Edmonton, leading the Pacific Division with a 11-3-0 record, had a middling week, with two wins and 2 losses.  Surprisingly, they lost to two bottom-half teams: Detroit (23rd) and Buffalo (27th), but beat two top-half teams, Boston (6th) and St. Louis (12th).  This performance left them unchanged at 3rd in our rankings, with a decrease of just 1 rating point.

Florida, ranked 2nd last week, went winless, with 2 losses and 2 overtime losses.  Previously, they had only lost one game all year, an overtime loss!  This performance dropped them 17 rating points in this week’s ratings, and moved them down to 4th spot.  With their 10-2-3 record, they still lead the Atlantic Division, two points ahead of 8th-ranked Toronto.

Colorado, despite sporting a 6-5-1 record and currently sitting in 5th spot in the Central Division, moved into 5th overall in our rankings.  They had a relatively easy week, beating Vancouver (ranked 28th) and San Jose (21st).  They’ve got another easy week coming up, playing on the road against Vancouver and Seattle (31st).

The biggest upward-mover in our ratings this week was Washington, with that 4-0-0 week.  Also having big weeks were Los Angeles and Vegas.  Los Angeles went 3-0-1, including a big 5-1 win over 8th-ranked Toronto on the road.  That week gained them 19 rating points, moving them up 4 spots in our rankings to 20th.  Vegas went 3-0-0; that earned them 17 rating points, moving them up from 16th in our rankings all the way up to a tie for 8th with Toronto!

The biggest downward-movers were Seattle, Arizona, and previously-discussed Florida.  Expansion team Seattle lost all 3 of their games this week, losing 20 rating points and moving them from a 28th ranking down to 31st.  We’re now giving them only an 8% chance of making the playoffs.  Arizona also had an 0-3-0 week, losing 18 rating points.  This has moved them down to last spot in our rankings.  They currently have a 1-13-1 record, and we’re only giving them a 2% chance of making the playoffs.

The Top 5

1. Carolina Hurricanes (1573, ▼4)

Record: 11-2-0, 1st in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 90% (▲1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 19% (▲1)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▼1)

Last week: 2-1-0

• November 9: Won in OT 2-1 @ Tampa Bay Lightning (11th, 1529)
• November 12: Lost 2-1 vs. Philadelphia Flyers (15th, 1515)
• November 13: Won 3-2 vs. St. Louis Blues (12th, 1525)

Next week:

• November 16: @ Vegas Golden Knights (8th, 1535)
• November 18: @ Anaheim Ducks (19th, 1489)
• November 20: @ Los Angeles Kings (20th, 1485)

2. Washington Capitals ▲2 (1571, ▲25)

Record: 9-2-4, 2nd in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 85% (▲19)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 11% (▲7)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲3)

Last week: 4-0-0

• November 8: Won 5-3 vs. Buffalo Sabres (27th, 1446)
• November 11: Won 2-0 @ Detroit Red Wings (23th, 1473)
• November 12: Won 4-3 @ Columbus Blue Jackets (25th, 1459)
• November 14: Won 6-1 vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (18th, 1510)

Next week:

• November 16: @ Anaheim Ducks (19th, 1489)
• November 17: @ Los Angeles Kings (20th, 1485)
• November 20: @ San Jose Sharks (21st, 1478)
• November 21: @ Seattle Kraken (31st, 1436)

3. Edmonton Oilers (1556, ▼1)

Record: 11-3-0, 1st in Pacific Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 89% (▼2)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 12% (▼1)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▼1)

Last week: 2-2-0

• November 9: Lost 4-2 @ Detroit Red Wings (23rd, 1473)
• November 11: Won 5-3 @ Boston Bruins (6th, 1538)
• November 12: Lost 3-2 @ Buffalo Sabres (27th, 1446)
• November 14: Won 5-4 @ St. Louis Blues (12th, 1525)

Next week:

• November 16: @ Winnipeg Jets (16th, 1512)
• November 18: vs. Winnipeg Jets (16th, 1512)
• November 20: vs. Chicago Blackhawks (30th, 1440)

4. Florida Panthers ▼2 (1555, ▼17)

Record: 10-2-3, 1st in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 88% (▼5)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 12% (▼10)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▼3)

Last week: 0-2-2

• November 8: Lost 4-3 @ New York Rangers (7th, 1537)
• November 9: Lost 7-3 @ New Jersey Devils (22th, 1477)
• November 11: Lost in SO 3-2 @ Pittsburgh Penguins (18th, 1510)
• November 13: Lost in OT 3-2 @ Tampa Bay Lightning (11th, 1529)

Next week:

• November 16: vs. New York Islanders (13th, 1524)
• November 18: vs. New Jersey Devils (22nd, 1477)
• November 20: vs. Minnesota Wild (10th, 1531)

5. Colorado Avalanche ▲1 (1546, ▲10)

Record: 6-5-1, 5th in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 72% (▲6)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 3% (▲1)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▲1)

Last week: 2-0-0

• November 11: Won 7-1 vs. Vancouver Canucks (28th, 1442)
• November 13: Won 6-2 vs. San Jose Sharks (21st, 1478)

Next week:

• November 17: @ Vancouver Canucks (28th, 1442)
• November 19: @ Seattle Kraken (31st, 1436)

 

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

Overall Ratings

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           1573 (▼4)
 2       Washington Capitals (▲2)      1571 (▲25)
 3       Edmonton Oilers               1556 (▼1)
 4       Florida Panthers (▼2)         1555 (▼17)
 5       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       1546 (▲10)
 6       Boston Bruins (▲5)            1538 (▲10)
 7       New York Rangers (▲7)         1537 (▲13)
 8 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           1535 (▲4)
 8 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲8)     1535 (▲17)
10       Minnesota Wild (▲2)           1531 (▲6)
11       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼2)      1529
12       St. Louis Blues (▼7)          1525 (▼15)
13       New York Islanders (▼6)       1524 (▼8)
14       Calgary Flames (▼5)           1520 (▼9)
15       Philadelphia Flyers           1515 (▼6)
16 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲2)      1512 (▲14)
16 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            1512 (▲5)
18       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼6)      1510 (▼15)
19       Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            1489 (▲14)
20       Los Angeles Kings (▲4)        1485 (▲19)
21       San Jose Sharks (▼2)          1478 (▼2)
22       New Jersey Devils (▲3)        1477 (▲12)
23       Detroit Red Wings (▼2)        1473
24       Dallas Stars (▼1)             1468
25       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼4)    1459 (▼14)
26       Ottawa Senators               1447 (▼12)
27       Buffalo Sabres (▲2)           1446 (▼3)
28       Vancouver Canucks (▼1)        1442 (▼16)
29       Montreal Canadiens (▲1)       1441 (▲4)
30       Chicago Blackhawks (▲2)       1440 (▲8)
31       Seattle Kraken (▼3)           1436 (▼20)
32       Arizona Coyotes (▼1)          1416 (▼18)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           39% (▼4)
 2       Washington Capitals           27% (▲13)
 3       New York Rangers (▲2)         14% (▲5)
 4       New York Islanders (▼1)       7% (▼4)
 5       Philadelphia Flyers (▼2)      6% (▼5)
 6       Pittsburgh Penguins           3% (▼4)
 7       New Jersey Devils (▲1)        2%
 8       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1)    1% (▼3)

Atlantic Division

 1       Florida Panthers              41% (▼17)
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs           19% (▲6)
 3 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲1)            17% (▲6)
 3 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      17% (▲4)
 5       Detroit Red Wings             4% (▲1)
 6       Buffalo Sabres                1% (▼1)
 7 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲1)       <1%
 7 (tie) Ottawa Senators               <1% (▼1)

Central Division

 1       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           27% (▲2)
 2       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       20% (▲5)
 3       St. Louis Blues (▼2)          19% (▼14)
 4       Winnipeg Jets                 16% (▲2)
 5       Nashville Predators           15% (▲6)
 6       Dallas Stars                  3% (▼1)
 7       Chicago Blackhawks            1% (▲1)
 8       Arizona Coyotes (▼1)          <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Edmonton Oilers               44% (▼3)
 2       Calgary Flames                18% (▼8)
 3       Vegas Golden Knights          17% (▲8)
 4       Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            9% (▲4)
 5       Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        7% (▲4)
 6       San Jose Sharks (▼2)          5% (▼1)
 7       Vancouver Canucks             1% (▼1)
 8       Seattle Kraken                <1% (▼1)

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           90% (▲1)
 2       Washington Capitals           85% (▲19)
 3       New York Rangers (▲2)         71% (▲13)
 4       New York Islanders (▼1)       53% (▼7)
 5       Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      52% (▼7)
 6       Pittsburgh Penguins           38% (▼13)
 7       New Jersey Devils (▲1)        32% (▲6)
 8       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1)    24% (▼12)

Atlantic Division

 1       Florida Panthers              88% (▼5)
 2       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1)      71% (▲6)
 3 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲1)            68% (▲8)
 3 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      68% (▲2)
 5       Detroit Red Wings             32% (▲2)
 6       Buffalo Sabres                17% (▼4)
 7       Ottawa Senators               7% (▼7)
 8       Montreal Canadiens            5% (▼1)

Central Division

 1       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           79% (▲1)
 2       St. Louis Blues (▼1)          73% (▼10)
 3       Colorado Avalanche            72% (▲6)
 4       Winnipeg Jets                 68% (▲5)
 5       Nashville Predators           66% (▲12)
 6       Dallas Stars                  29% (▼4)
 7       Chicago Blackhawks            10% (▲1)
 8       Arizona Coyotes               2% (▼6)

Pacific Division

 1       Edmonton Oilers               89% (▼2)
 2       Calgary Flames                73% (▼9)
 3       Vegas Golden Knights          71% (▲12)
 4       Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            57% (▲13)
 5       Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        49% (▲15)
 6       San Jose Sharks (▼2)          40% (▼7)
 7       Vancouver Canucks             13% (▼15)
 8       Seattle Kraken                8% (▼14)

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      19% (▲1)
 2 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          12% (▼1)
 2 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼1)         12% (▼10)
 4       Washington Capitals (▲2)      11% (▲7)
 5 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲1)           5% (▲1)
 5 (tie) New York Rangers (▲7)         5% (▲3)
 7 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲5)            4% (▲2)
 7 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1)      4% (▲1)
 9 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼5)           3% (▼3)
 9 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲3)       3% (▲1)
 9 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼5)          3% (▼3)
 9 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      3%
 9 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲8)     3% (▲2)
 9 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲3)            3% (▲1)
15 (tie) New York Islanders (▼7)       2% (▼1)
15 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲2)      2% (▲1)
15 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼7)      2% (▼1)
18 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲3)            1% (▲1)
18 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲3)        1% (▲1)
18 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲3)        1% (▲1)
18 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼6)      1% (▼1)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           8% (▼1)
 1 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲4)      8% (▲3)
 3       Edmonton Oilers               7% (▼1)
 4 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       6% (▲1)
 4 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼3)         6% (▼3)
 6 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲3)            5% (▲1)
 6 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼1)           5%
 6 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲3)      5% (▲1)
 6 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲3)     5% (▲1)
10 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼5)           4% (▼1)
10 (tie) New York Rangers (▲4)         4% (▲1)
10 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼6)          4% (▼2)
10 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      4%
10 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲4)            4% (▲1)
15 (tie) New York Islanders (▼6)       3% (▼1)
15 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼1)      3%
15 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      3%
18 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            2%
18 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲3)        2% (▲1)
18 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼4)      2% (▼1)
18 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1)          2%
22 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▼1)           1%
22 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1)    1%
22 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼1)             1%
22 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼1)        1%
22 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼1)        1%
27 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲3)          <1%
27 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲3)       <1%
27 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲3)       <1%
27 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▼6)          <1% (▼1)
27 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▼6)           <1% (▼1)
27 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼6)        <1% (▼1)

 

The NHL is in full swing now, and the McDonald NHL Power Ratings team is very confident in our predictions, as our ratings aren’t seeing the wild swings that they were having as the models calibrated themselves to this year’s teams.  Of course, as the season progresses, the ratings will continue to change to reflect current performance, but we’re liking what we’re seeing in our models now.

Carolina continues to be the top ranked team, although they did suffer their first loss of the season this week.  The premier game of the week was on Friday night, with #1 Carolina facing #2 Florida in Florida, and the Panthers thoroughly defeated the Hurricanes 5-2.  With the win, Florida closed the gap on Carolina, but not enough to take first place in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings.  Florida is the only team not to be defeated in regulation time this year, and are now our favourites to win the President’s Trophy, and are tied with Carolina at having the best chance of winning the Stanley Cup.

Out west, Edmonton continues to impress, as they’ve moved into 3rd place in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings.  They have an identical 9-1-0 record as Carolina, and went 3-0 this week.  We’re currently giving them the best chance of any Canadian team to win the Stanley Cup, at 8%.  Connor McDavid scored a highlight reel goal on Thursday against the New York Rangers, and Leon Draisaitl leads the league in goals with 10 (tied with Washington’s Alex Ovechkin) and points with 23, one point ahead of McDavid.

Washington had a bad week, losing all three of their games this week, although one was an overtime loss to 2nd-ranked Florida.  Although it’s still early in the year, we’re now giving them only a 66% chance of making the playoffs, as they’re currently sitting in 5th place in the Metropolitan Division.  They are leading the league in overtime losses with 4 (out of 11 games), so they could quite easily turn things around.

Sneaking into the top 5 is St. Louis, who moved past Colorado, last week’s #4 team.  Although the Blues had an unimpressive week, 1-1-1 against average teams, they are 7-2-1 this season to sit in second place in the Central Division.  Minnesota, who leads that division, is only ranked 12th in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings.

Big upward movers this week were Anaheim and Tampa Bay.  Anaheim, ranked 29th last week, went 3-0-0, including a 4-1 win over St. Louis last night.  That performance saw them shoot up 9 spots to 20th in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings, and a jump of 21 rating points.  Defending two-time Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay also had a good week, with 2 wins, 3-2 over the 4th-ranked Washington Capitals and 5-3 over the lowly 26th-ranked Ottawa Senators, and an overtime loss to 8th-ranked Toronto.  They gained 16 rating points and moved from 15th in our rankings all the way up to 9th.

The biggest downward moves were by the aforementioned Washington Capitals, down 16 points on the week, and the Ottawa Senators, down 20 points and 6 ranking positions to 26th.  They went 0-3-1 this week, including a 5-1 loss to bottom-ranked Chicago.

The Top 5

1. Carolina Hurricanes (1577, ▼2)

Record: 9-1-0, 1st in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 89% (▼1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 18% (▼3)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9%

Last week: 1-1-0

• November 3: Won 4-3 @ Chicago Blackhawks (32th, 1432)
• November 6: Lost 5-2 @ Florida Panthers (2nd, 1572)

Next week:

• November 9: @ Tampa Bay Lightning (9th, 1529)
• November 12: vs. Philadelphia Flyers (15th, 1521)
• November 13: vs. St. Louis Blues (5th, 1540)

2. Florida Panthers (1572, ▲6)

Record: 10-0-1, 1st in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

Making the playoffs: 93% (▲3)

• Winning the President’s Trophy: 22% (▲5)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲1)

Last week: 2-0-0

• November 4: Won in OT 5-4 vs. Washington Capitals (4th, 1546)
• November 6: Won 5-2 vs. Carolina Hurricanes (1st, 1577)

Next week:

• November 8: @ New York Rangers (14th, 1524)
• November 9: @ New Jersey Devils (25th, 1465)
• November 11: @ Pittsburgh Penguins (12th, 1525)
• November 13: @ Tampa Bay Lightning (9th, 1529)

3. Edmonton Oilers ▲1 (1557, ▲10)

Record: 9-1-0, 1st in Pacific Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 91% (▲6)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 13% (▲5)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲2)

Last week: 3-0-0

• November 1: Won 5-2 vs. Seattle Kraken (28th, 1456)
• November 3: Won 5-2 vs. Nashville Predators (18th, 1498)
• November 5: Won in OT 6-5 vs. New York Rangers (14th, 1524)

Next week:

• November 9: @ Detroit Red Wings (21th, 1473)
• November 11: @ Boston Bruins (11th, 1528)
• November 12: @ Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1449)
• November 14: @ St. Louis Blues (5th, 1540)

4. Washington Capitals ▼1 (1546, ▼16)

Record: 5-2-4, 5th in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 66% (▼13)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 4% (▼6)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 5% (▼2)

Last week: 0-2-1

• November 1: Lost 3-2 @ Tampa Bay Lightning (9th, 1529)
• November 4: Lost in OT 5-4 @ Florida Panthers (2nd, 1572)
• November 6: Lost 2-1 vs. Philadelphia Flyers (15th, 1521)

Next week:

• November 8: vs. Buffalo Sabres (29th, 1449)
• November 11: @ Detroit Red Wings (21th, 1473)
• November 12: @ Columbus Blue Jackets (21th, 1473)
• November 14: vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (12th, 1525)

5. St. Louis Blues ▲1 (1540, ▼2)

Record: 7-2-1, 2nd in Central Division

Chances of: 

Making the playoffs: 83% (▼1)

• Winning the President’s Trophy: 6% (▼2)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6%

Last week: 1-1-1

• November 3: Lost in SO 3-2 @ Los Angeles Kings (24th, 1466)
• November 4: Won 5-3 @ San Jose Sharks (19th, 1480)
• November 7: Lost 4-1 @ Anaheim Ducks (20th, 1475)

Next week:

• November 9: @ Winnipeg Jets (17th, 1507)
• November 11: vs. Nashville Predators (18th, 1498)
• November 13: @ Carolina Hurricanes (1st, 1577)
• November 14: vs. Edmonton Oilers (3rd, 1557)

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

Overall Ratings

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           1577 (▼2)
 2       Florida Panthers              1572 (▲6)
 3       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          1557 (▲10)
 4       Washington Capitals (▼1)      1546 (▼16)
 5       St. Louis Blues (▲1)          1540 (▼2)
 6       Colorado Avalanche (▼2)       1536 (▼11)
 7       New York Islanders (▲4)       1532 (▲8)
 8       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲5)      1531 (▲13)
 9 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲1)           1529 (▲4)
 9 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲6)      1529 (▲16)
11       Boston Bruins (▼3)            1528 (▼2)
12 (tie) Minnesota Wild                1525 (▲6)
12 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼3)      1525 (▼2)
14       New York Rangers (▼7)         1524 (▼7)
15       Philadelphia Flyers (▲2)      1521 (▲15)
16       Vegas Golden Knights (▼3)     1518
17       Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            1507 (▼5)
18       Nashville Predators           1498 (▲2)
19       San Jose Sharks               1480 (▼2)
20       Anaheim Ducks (▲9)            1475 (▲21)
21 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲5)    1473 (▲11)
21 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             1473 (▼3)
23       Dallas Stars (▼1)             1468 (▼3)
24       Los Angeles Kings             1466
25       New Jersey Devils (▼2)        1465 (▼5)
26       Ottawa Senators (▼6)          1459 (▼20)
27       Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        1458
28       Seattle Kraken (▼1)           1456 (▼5)
29       Buffalo Sabres (▼4)           1449 (▼14)
30       Montreal Canadiens            1437 (▼7)
31       Arizona Coyotes               1434 (▼4)
32       Chicago Blackhawks            1432 (▼1)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           43% (▲1)
 2       Washington Capitals           14% (▼8)
 3 (tie) New York Islanders (▲1)       11% (▲3)
 3 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲2)      11% (▲5)
 5       New York Rangers (▼2)         9% (▼3)
 6       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1)      7% (▲1)
 7       Columbus Blue Jackets         4% (▲2)
 8       New Jersey Devils (▼1)        2%

Atlantic Division

 1       Florida Panthers              58% (▲6)
 2 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      13% (▲3)
 2 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲2)      13% (▲4)
 4       Boston Bruins (▼2)            11% (▼4)
 5       Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        3% (▼1)
 6       Buffalo Sabres (▼1)           2% (▼3)
 7       Ottawa Senators (▼1)          1% (▼3)
 8       Montreal Canadiens            <1% (▼1)

Central Division

 1       St. Louis Blues               33% (▼1)
 2       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           25% (▲9)
 3       Colorado Avalanche (▼1)       15% (▼6)
 4       Winnipeg Jets                 14%
 5       Nashville Predators           9% (▲1)
 6       Dallas Stars                  4%
 7 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1% (▼1)
 7 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Edmonton Oilers               47% (▲9)
 2       Calgary Flames                26% (▼3)
 3       Vegas Golden Knights          9% (▼4)
 4       San Jose Sharks               6% (▼3)
 5       Anaheim Ducks                 5% (▲2)
 6       Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        3%
 7       Vancouver Canucks (▼2)        2% (▼1)
 8       Seattle Kraken (▼3)           1% (▼2)

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           89% (▼1)
 2       Washington Capitals           66% (▼13)
 3       New York Islanders (▲1)       60% (▲5)
 4       Philadelphia Flyers (▲2)      59% (▲12)
 5       New York Rangers (▼2)         58% (▼7)
 6       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1)      51% (▲1)
 7       Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    36% (▲9)
 8       New Jersey Devils (▼1)        26% (▼3)

Atlantic Division

 1       Florida Panthers              93% (▲3)
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      66% (▲14)
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1)      65% (▲15)
 4       Boston Bruins (▼2)            60% (▼1)
 5       Detroit Red Wings             30% (▼3)
 6       Buffalo Sabres (▼1)           21% (▼12)
 7       Ottawa Senators               14% (▼16)
 8       Montreal Canadiens            6% (▼3)

Central Division

 1       St. Louis Blues               83% (▼1)
 2       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           78% (▲9)
 3       Colorado Avalanche (▼1)       66% (▼9)
 4       Winnipeg Jets                 63% (▼2)
 5       Nashville Predators           54% (▲3)
 6       Dallas Stars                  33% (▼4)
 7       Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       9% (▼1)
 8       Arizona Coyotes (▼1)          8% (▼3)

Pacific Division

 1       Edmonton Oilers               91% (▲6)
 2       Calgary Flames                82% (▲2)
 3       Vegas Golden Knights          59% (▼3)
 4       San Jose Sharks               47% (▼5)
 5       Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            44% (▲15)
 6       Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        34% (▲3)
 7       Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        28%
 8       Seattle Kraken (▼2)           22% (▼7)

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Florida Panthers (▲1)         22% (▲5)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes (▼1)      18% (▼3)
 3       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          13% (▲5)
 4 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲2)           6%
 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues               6% (▼2)
 6 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲3)           4% (▲1)
 6 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼3)      4% (▼6)
 8 (tie) New York Islanders (▲1)       3%
 8 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲4)      3% (▲1)
 8 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲4)      3% (▲1)
 8 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲9)      3% (▲2)
12 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼3)            2% (▼1)
12 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼5)       2% (▼2)
12 (tie) New York Rangers (▼5)         2% (▼2)
12 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins           2%
12 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 2%
17 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲6)    1% (▲1)
17 (tie) Nashville Predators           1%
17 (tie) San Jose Sharks               1%
17 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼5)     1% (▼1)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           9%
 1 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲1)         9% (▲1)
 3       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          8% (▲2)
 4       St. Louis Blues               6%
 5 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲2)           5%
 5 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼1)       5% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲3)           5% (▲1)
 5 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼2)      5% (▼2)
 9 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1)            4%
 9 (tie) New York Islanders (▲4)       4% (▲1)
 9 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲4)      4% (▲1)
 9 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲4)      4% (▲1)
 9 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     4%
14 (tie) New York Rangers (▼6)         3% (▼1)
14 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼1)      3%
14 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      3%
14 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1)      3%
14 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼6)            3% (▼1)
19 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲2)            2% (▲1)
19 (tie) San Jose Sharks               2%
21 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                1%
21 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         1%
21 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼2)             1% (▼1)
21 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             1%
21 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             1%
21 (tie) New Jersey Devils             1%
21 (tie) Ottawa Senators               1%
21 (tie) Seattle Kraken                1%
21 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             1%
30 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               <1%
30 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%
30 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            <1%

 

We’re three weeks into the NHL season now, and most of the uncertainty we’ve introduced into our models has worked its way out of the system, and the models are now pretty well calibrated.  We’re still seeing some big changes, but no more than we would normally expect to see in a week, so things seem pretty stable.  Of course, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty because it’s so early in the season, but we feel that our ratings are pretty accurate as to how the teams are currently playing, and as the season progresses, we’ll see more and more accurate calculations.

Carolina remains the top team in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings, and it’s not a surprise, as they are the only undefeated team in the league, with a current record of 8-0-0.  That’s an amazing start!  As a result, despite them only having played about 10% of their schedule, we’re already giving them a 90% chance of making the playoffs, and a 21% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.  They are also the favourites to win the Stanley Cup, but at 9% probability, that’s far from a sure thing!  They won all four of their games this week, although two of those games were against last-ranked Chicago and second-last-ranked Arizona.  But still, 8 wins to start the season is pretty impressive!

Florida is ranked number 2, as they were last week.  They’ve had as impressive a start as Carolina, having won their first eight games.  In their ninth, though, they lost in a shootout to 8th-ranked Boston.  Their numbers aren’t far behind Carolina’s, with a 90% chance of making the playoffs (same as Carolina), a 17% chance of winning the President’s Trophy (vs. 21%), and an 8% probability of winning the Stanley Cup (vs. 9%).  They have a tough week coming up which will be a good indication of whether they’re as good as we think they are, as they play number 3 Washington on Thursday and number 1 Carolina on Saturday.  That Saturday game should be a good one!

Washington is ranked number 3, up one spot from last week.  They had two wins and an overtime loss.  They haven’t lost in regulation time yet this year, but do have three overtime losses, blemishing their otherwise spotless record at 5-0-3.

Moving back into the top 5 is Colorado, taking the number 4 spot.  They are 4-4-0 this year, good for only 5th position in the Central Division, but they seem to be starting to come into form.

Rounding out the top 5 is Edmonton, who are tied with Colorado for the number 4 spot.  They lost their first game of the year to Philadelphia, but followed that up with a win over Vancouver.  Despite their great start with a 6-1-0 record, they are only 2nd in the Pacific Division.

The reason Edmonton is only 2nd in the Pacific is because Calgary is also having a great start.  They are 6-1-1 for a one point lead over Edmonton, and had 4 wins this week.  They had the biggest move this week, picking up 33 rating points and moving up 8 spots in our rankings, to number 10.  It might be a great year for Alberta teams!

The biggest downward movement this week was Pittsburgh.  They had been number 2 last week, but after losing three games and being outscored 13-3 this week, we’ve dropped their rating by 33 points, moving them to number 9 in the rankings.  We’ll keep an eye on them to see if they can turn things around.

The Top 5

1. Carolina Hurricanes (1579, ▲20)

Record: 8-0-0, 1st in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 90% (▲11)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 21% (▲10)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲2)

Last week: 4-0-0

• October 25: Won 4-1 vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (13th, 1518)
• October 28: Won 3-0 vs. Boston Bruins (8th, 1530)
• October 29: Won 6-3 vs. Chicago Blackhawks (32th, 1433)
• October 31: Won 2-1 vs. Arizona Coyotes (31th, 1438)

Next week:

• November 3: @ Chicago Blackhawks (32th, 1433)
• November 6: @ Florida Panthers (2nd, 1566)

2. Florida Panthers (1566, ▲10)

Record: 8-0-1, 1st in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 90% (▲8)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 17% (▲5)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲1)

Last week: 3-0-1

• October 25: Won 5-3 vs. Arizona Coyotes (31th, 1438)
• October 27: Won 4-1 vs. Boston Bruins (8th, 1530)
• October 29: Won in OT 3-2 @ Detroit Red Wings (21th, 1476)
• October 30: Lost in SO 3-2 @ Boston Bruins (8th, 1530)

Next week:

• November 4: vs. Washington Capitals (3rd, 1562)
• November 6: vs. Carolina Hurricanes (1st, 1579)

3. Washington Capitals ▲1 (1562, ▲8)

Record: 5-0-3, 2nd in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 79% (▲6)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 10% (▲2)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲1)

Last week: 2-0-1

• October 25: Won 7-5 @ Ottawa Senators (20th, 1479)
• October 27: Lost in OT 3-2 vs. Detroit Red Wings (21th, 1476)
• October 29: Won 2-0 vs. Arizona Coyotes (31th, 1438)

Next week:

• November 1: @ Tampa Bay Lightning (15th, 1513)
• November 4: @ Florida Panthers (2nd, 1566)
• November 6: vs. Philadelphia Flyers (17th, 1506)

4 (tie). Colorado Avalanche ▲3 (1547, ▲6)

Record: 4-4-0, 5th in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 75% (▲5)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 4%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▲1)

Last week: 2-1-0

• October 26: Lost 3-1 vs. Vegas Golden Knights (13th, 1518)
• October 28: Won 4-3 @ St. Louis Blues (6th, 1542)
• October 30: Won 4-1 vs. Minnesota Wild (12th, 1519)

Next week:

• November 3: vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (26th, 1462)
• November 6: @ Columbus Blue Jackets (26th, 1462)

4 (tie). Edmonton Oilers ▲1 (1547, ▼2)

Record: 6-1-0, 2nd in Pacific Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 85% (▼1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 8% (▼2)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▼1)

Last week: 1-1-0

• October 27: Lost 5-3 vs. Philadelphia Flyers (17th, 1506)
• October 30: Won 2-1 @ Vancouver Canucks (28th, 1458)

Next week:

• November 1: vs. Seattle Kraken (27th, 1461)
• November 3: vs. Nashville Predators (18th, 1496)
• November 5: vs. New York Rangers (7th, 1531)

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

Overall Ratings

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           1579 (▲20)
 2       Florida Panthers              1566 (▲10)
 3       Washington Capitals (▲1)      1562 (▲8)
 4 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲3)       1547 (▲6)
 4 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          1547 (▼2)
 6       St. Louis Blues (▲1)          1542 (▲1)
 7       New York Rangers (▲2)         1531 (▲4)
 8       Boston Bruins (▼2)            1530 (▼12)
 9       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼7)      1527 (▼29)
10       Calgary Flames (▲8)           1525 (▲33)
11       New York Islanders            1524
12       Minnesota Wild (▼2)           1519 (▼7)
13 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      1518 (▼1)
13 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          1518 (▲7)
15       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      1513 (▲7)
16       Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            1512 (▲14)
17       Philadelphia Flyers           1506 (▲10)
18       Nashville Predators (▲1)      1496 (▲7)
19       San Jose Sharks (▼4)          1482 (▼16)
20       Ottawa Senators (▲3)          1479 (▲2)
21       Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        1476 (▼2)
22       Dallas Stars (▼2)             1471 (▼16)
23       New Jersey Devils (▲1)        1470 (▲1)
24       Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        1466 (▲2)
25       Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           1463 (▲1)
26       Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    1462 (▲2)
27       Seattle Kraken (▲3)           1461 (▲8)
28       Vancouver Canucks (▼7)        1458 (▼22)
29       Anaheim Ducks (▲2)            1454 (▲2)
30       Montreal Canadiens (▼2)       1444 (▼12)
31       Arizona Coyotes (▼3)          1438 (▼18)
32       Chicago Blackhawks            1433 (▼8)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           42% (▲16)
 2       Washington Capitals (▲1)      22% (▲2)
 3       New York Rangers (▲1)         12% (▼1)
 4       New York Islanders (▲1)       8% (▼2)
 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      6% (▲1)
 5 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼3)      6% (▼15)
 7 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    2%
 7 (tie) New Jersey Devils             2% (▼1)

Atlantic Division

 1       Florida Panthers              52% (▲12)
 2       Boston Bruins                 15% (▼9)
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      10% (▲1)
 4       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      9% (▼1)
 5       Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           5%
 6 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼1)        4% (▼2)
 6 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1)          4%
 8       Montreal Canadiens            1% (▼1)

Central Division

 1       St. Louis Blues               34% (▲1)
 2       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       21% (▲3)
 3       Minnesota Wild (▼1)           16% (▼6)
 4       Winnipeg Jets                 14% (▲5)
 5       Nashville Predators (▲1)      8% (▲2)
 6       Dallas Stars (▼2)             4% (▼5)
 7       Arizona Coyotes               1% (▼1)
 8       Chicago Blackhawks            <1% (▼1)

Pacific Division

 1       Edmonton Oilers               38% (▼5)
 2       Calgary Flames (▲1)           29% (▲17)
 3       Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     13% (▲4)
 4       San Jose Sharks (▼2)          9% (▼8)
 5 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            3% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        3% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲3)           3%
 5 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼1)        3% (▼6)

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           90% (▲11)
 2       Washington Capitals (▲1)      79% (▲6)
 3       New York Rangers (▲1)         65% (▲3)
 4       New York Islanders (▲1)       55% (▼1)
 5       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼3)      50% (▼24)
 6       Philadelphia Flyers           47% (▲7)
 7       New Jersey Devils             29% (▼2)
 8       Columbus Blue Jackets         27% (▲2)

Atlantic Division

 1       Florida Panthers              90% (▲8)
 2       Boston Bruins                 61% (▼9)
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      52% (▲5)
 4       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      50%
 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           33% (▲2)
 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             33% (▼2)
 7       Ottawa Senators               30%
 8       Montreal Canadiens            9% (▼7)

Central Division

 1       St. Louis Blues               84% (▲2)
 2       Colorado Avalanche (▲1)       75% (▲5)
 3       Minnesota Wild (▼1)           69% (▼5)
 4       Winnipeg Jets                 65% (▲13)
 5       Nashville Predators (▲1)      51% (▲9)
 6       Dallas Stars (▼2)             37% (▼15)
 7       Arizona Coyotes               11% (▼12)
 8       Chicago Blackhawks            10% (▼6)

Pacific Division

 1       Edmonton Oilers               85% (▼1)
 2       Calgary Flames (▲1)           80% (▲25)
 3       Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     62% (▲12)
 4       San Jose Sharks (▼2)          52% (▼12)
 5       Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        31% (▼1)
 6 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            29% (▼1)
 6 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲2)           29% (▲4)
 8       Vancouver Canucks (▼3)        28% (▼20)

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      21% (▲10)
 2       Florida Panthers (▼1)         17% (▲5)
 3       Washington Capitals (▲3)      10% (▲2)
 4 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼1)          8% (▼2)
 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues               8% (▼1)
 6       Calgary Flames (▲7)           6% (▲4)
 7 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲2)       4%
 7 (tie) New York Rangers (▲2)         4%
 9 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼2)            3% (▼3)
 9 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼1)           3% (▼2)
 9 (tie) New York Islanders (▲2)       3%
12 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲4)      2% (▲1)
12 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼8)      2% (▼7)
12 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      2%
12 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲4)     2% (▲1)
12 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲4)            2% (▲1)
17 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▼1)           1%
17 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼1)        1%
17 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼1)      1%
17 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼1)        1%
17 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼6)          1% (▼2)
17 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼4)      1% (▼1)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           9% (▲2)
 2       Florida Panthers (▼1)         8% (▲1)
 3       Washington Capitals (▲1)      7% (▲1)
 4 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲3)       6% (▲1)
 4 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼3)          6% (▼1)
 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues               6%
 7       Calgary Flames (▲5)           5% (▲2)
 8 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼1)            4% (▼1)
 8 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼1)           4% (▼1)
 8 (tie) New York Rangers (▲2)         4%
 8 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲4)     4% (▲1)
 8 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲4)            4% (▲1)
13 (tie) New York Islanders (▼3)       3% (▼1)
13 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲5)      3% (▲1)
13 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲5)      3% (▲1)
13 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼9)      3% (▼3)
13 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      3%
13 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1)      3%
19 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼1)             2%
19 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼7)          2% (▼1)
21 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲2)            1%
21 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲2)           1%
21 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2)    1%
21 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼3)        1% (▼1)
21 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲2)        1%
21 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲2)        1%
21 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲2)          1%
21 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲2)           1%
21 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼3)        1% (▼1)
30 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▼7)          <1% (▼1)
30 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▼7)       <1% (▼1)
30 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▼7)       <1% (▼1)

 

We’re two weeks into the season now, and we’re still seeing lots of changes in the ratings, as our models continue to calibrate themselves.  We’ve got a new top team, and two new teams in the top 5.

Carolina has now taken over top spot in our rankings.  They had two wins, both against weaker teams (Montreal ranked 28th, and Columbus ranked 27th), but now have a 4-0-0 record.  Next week will be a test for them, as they start the week with games against Toronto (ranked 12th) and Boston (6th).

Pittsburgh remains in second place in our rankings, but now they’ve got company, as Florida made a big move to move into the second place tie.  Pittsburgh went 1-0-1, with a big 7-1 win over Toronto and a shootout loss to Dallas.  They now have a 3-0-2 record.  Florida had a strong week with 3 wins, beating Tampa Bay, Colorado, and Philadelphia.  They are now 5-0-0, and are currently our favourites to win the President’s Trophy, with them taking it in 12% of our simulations.

Washington stays in fourth place in the McDonald NHL Power Rankings, after going 2-0-1 this week.  They beat Colorado and New Jersey, and lost in overtime to Calgary.

New to the top 5 is Edmonton.  They won all three of their games this week, defeating lowly Anaheim (31st) and Arizona (28th), but also beat Vegas (13th).  They are also 5-0-0, and are currently the most-likely Canadian team to win the Stanley Cup, winning it all in 7% of our simulations, which is the same as both Carolina and Florida.

Other big movers this week included the New York Islanders, up 23 rating points to 11th after going 3-0-1, and St. Louis, up 22 points to 7th after notching 3 wins this week.  On the downside, Vegas dropped 25 points and Chicago dropped 24.  Chicago is now the lowest-ranked team in the league.

The Top 5

1. Carolina Hurricanes ▲2 (1559, ▲12)

Record: 4-0-0, 2nd in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 79% (▲8)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 11% (▲2)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲1)

Last week: 2-0-0

• October 21: Won 4-1 @ Montreal Canadiens (28th, 1456)
• October 23: Won 5-1 @ Columbus Blue Jackets (27th, 1460)

Next week:

• October 25: vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (12th, 1519)
• October 28: vs. Boston Bruins (6th, 1542)
• October 29: vs. Chicago Blackhawks (32nd, 1441)
• October 31: vs. Arizona Coyotes (28th, 1456)

2 (tie). Florida Panthers ▲6 (1556, ▲22)

Record: 5-0-0, 1st in Atlantic Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 82% (▲15)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 12% (▲6)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲2)

Last week: 3-0-0

• October 19: Won 4-1 @ Tampa Bay Lightning (14th, 1506)
• October 21: Won 4-1 vs. Colorado Avalanche (7th, 1541)
• October 23: Won 4-2 @ Philadelphia Flyers (17th, 1496)

Next week:

• October 25: vs. Arizona Coyotes (28th, 1456)
• October 27: vs. Boston Bruins (6th, 1542)
• October 29: @ Detroit Red Wings (22nd, 1478)
• October 30: @ Boston Bruins (6th, 1542)

2 (tie). Pittsburgh Penguins (1556, ▲4)

Record: 3-0-2, 3rd in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 74% (▲1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 9%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6%

Last week: 1-0-1

• October 19: Lost in SO 2-1 vs. Dallas Stars (20th, 1487)
• October 23: Won 7-1 vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (12th, 1519)

Next week:

• October 26: vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (14th, 1506)
• October 28: vs. Calgary Flames (18th, 1492)
• October 30: vs. New Jersey Devils (24th, 1469)

4. Washington Capitals (1554, ▲12)

Record: 3-0-2, 4th in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 73% (▲7)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 8% (▲2)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▲1)

Last week: 2-0-1

• October 19: Won 6-3 vs. Colorado Avalanche (7th, 1541)
• October 21: Won 4-1 @ New Jersey Devils (24th, 1469)
• October 23: Lost in OT 4-3 vs. Calgary Flames (18th, 1492)

Next week:

• October 25: @ Ottawa Senators (23rd, 1477)
• October 27: vs. Detroit Red Wings (22nd, 1478)
• October 29: vs. Arizona Coyotes (28th, 1456)

5. Edmonton Oilers ▲5 (1549, ▲20)

Record: 5-0-0, 1st in Pacific Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 86% (▲14)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 10% (▲4)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲2)

Last week: 3-0-0

• October 19: Won 6-5 vs. Anaheim Ducks (31st, 1452)
• October 21: Won 5-1 @ Arizona Coyotes (28th, 1456)
• October 22: Won 5-3 @ Vegas Golden Knights (13th, 1511)

Next week:

• October 27: vs. Philadelphia Flyers (17th, 1496)
• October 30: @ Vancouver Canucks (21st, 1480)

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

Overall Ratings

 1       Carolina Hurricanes (▲2)      1559 (▲12)
 2 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲7)         1556 (▲22)
 2 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins           1556 (▲4)
 4       Washington Capitals           1554 (▲12)
 5       Edmonton Oilers (▲5)          1549 (▲20)
 6       Boston Bruins                 1542 (▲6)
 7 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼6)       1541 (▼14)
 7 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲4)          1541 (▲22)
 9       New York Rangers (▲4)         1527 (▲17)
10       Minnesota Wild (▼5)           1526 (▼14)
11       New York Islanders (▲3)       1524 (▲23)
12       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼4)      1519 (▼16)
13       Vegas Golden Knights (▼7)     1511 (▼25)
14       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼2)      1506 (▼8)
15 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲7)          1498 (▲20)
15 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲4)            1498 (▲14)
17       Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      1496 (▲7)
18       Calgary Flames (▲2)           1492 (▲9)
19       Nashville Predators (▼2)      1489 (▲1)
20       Dallas Stars (▼2)             1487 (▲1)
21       Vancouver Canucks (▲6)        1480 (▲9)
22       Detroit Red Wings (▼1)        1478 (▼1)
23       Ottawa Senators (▼8)          1477 (▼17)
24       New Jersey Devils (▲4)        1469 (▼1)
25       Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        1464 (▼10)
26       Buffalo Sabres (▲5)           1462 (▲1)
27       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1)    1460 (▼12)
28 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▼5)          1456 (▼21)
28 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲2)       1456 (▼7)
30       Seattle Kraken (▼6)           1453 (▼21)
31       Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            1452 (▼7)
32       Chicago Blackhawks (▼3)       1441 (▼24)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      26% (▲2)
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1)      21% (▼4)
 3       Washington Capitals           20% (▲1)
 4       New York Rangers              13% (▲4)
 5       New York Islanders            10% (▲4)
 6       Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      5% (▼1)
 7       New Jersey Devils (▲1)        3% (▼2)
 8       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼3)    2% (▼4)

Atlantic Division

 1       Florida Panthers              40% (▲18)
 2       Boston Bruins                 24% (▲3)
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           10% (▼9)
 4       Tampa Bay Lightning           9% (▼5)
 5       Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        6% (▼1)
 6       Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           5%
 7       Ottawa Senators (▼2)          4% (▼5)
 8       Montreal Canadiens            2% (▼1)

Central Division

 1       St. Louis Blues (▲2)          33% (▲15)
 2       Minnesota Wild (▼1)           22% (▼5)
 3       Colorado Avalanche (▼2)       18% (▼9)
 4 (tie) Dallas Stars                  9% (▲2)
 4 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            9% (▲3)
 6       Nashville Predators (▼1)      6%
 7       Arizona Coyotes (▼2)          2% (▼4)
 8       Chicago Blackhawks            1% (▼3)

Pacific Division

 1       Edmonton Oilers               43% (▲16)
 2       San Jose Sharks (▲1)          17% (▲7)
 3       Calgary Flames (▲1)           12% (▲3)
 4 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲3)        9% (▲2)
 4 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼2)     9% (▼15)
 6 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲2)            4% (▼2)
 6 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        4% (▼4)
 8       Seattle Kraken (▼3)           3% (▼5)

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      79% (▲7)
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1)      74% (▲1)
 3       Washington Capitals           73% (▲6)
 4       New York Rangers              62% (▲13)
 5       New York Islanders            56% (▲16)
 6       Philadelphia Flyers           40% (▲1)
 7       New Jersey Devils (▲1)        31% (▼2)
 8       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1)    25% (▼12)

Atlantic Division

 1       Florida Panthers              82% (▲15)
 2       Boston Bruins                 70% (▲4)
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs           50% (▼14)
 4       Tampa Bay Lightning           47% (▼8)
 5       Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        35% (▼3)
 6       Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           31% (▼2)
 7       Ottawa Senators (▼2)          30% (▼15)
 8       Montreal Canadiens            16% (▼6)

Central Division

 1       St. Louis Blues (▲2)          82% (▲16)
 2       Minnesota Wild (▼1)           74% (▼2)
 3       Colorado Avalanche (▼2)       70% (▼6)
 4 (tie) Dallas Stars                  52% (▲8)
 4 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲2)            52% (▲13)
 6       Nashville Predators (▼1)      42% (▲2)
 7       Arizona Coyotes (▼1)          23% (▼16)
 8       Chicago Blackhawks            16% (▼15)

Pacific Division

 1       Edmonton Oilers               86% (▲14)
 2       San Jose Sharks (▲1)          64% (▲17)
 3       Calgary Flames (▲1)           55% (▲11)
 4       Vegas Golden Knights (▼2)     50% (▼20)
 5       Vancouver Canucks (▲2)        48% (▲8)
 6       Los Angeles Kings             32% (▼9)
 7       Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            30% (▼5)
 8       Seattle Kraken (▼3)           25% (▼17)

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Florida Panthers (▲3)         12% (▲5)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes           11% (▲3)
 3       Edmonton Oilers (▲3)          10% (▲4)
 4 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼3)      9%
 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲5)          9% (▲4)
 6       Washington Capitals           8% (▲2)
 7       Boston Bruins (▼1)            6%
 8       Minnesota Wild (▼6)           5% (▼3)
 9 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼5)       4% (▼3)
 9 (tie) New York Rangers (▲3)         4% (▲1)
11 (tie) New York Islanders (▲3)       3% (▲1)
11 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲3)          3% (▲1)
13 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲5)           2% (▲1)
13 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      2% (▼1)
13 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼4)      2% (▼3)
16 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲2)           1%
16 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2)    1%
16 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲2)             1%
16 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲2)        1%
16 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲2)      1%
16 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲2)        1%
16 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▼2)          1% (▼1)
16 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼2)      1% (▼1)
16 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲2)        1%
16 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼7)     1% (▼4)
16 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲2)            1%

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      7% (▲1)
 1 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲4)          7% (▲2)
 1 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲4)         7% (▲2)
 4 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼2)      6%
 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲7)          6% (▲2)
 4 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲1)      6% (▲1)
 7 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼2)            5%
 7 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼6)       5% (▼2)
 7 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼5)           5% (▼1)
10 (tie) New York Islanders (▲4)       4% (▲2)
10 (tie) New York Rangers (▲2)         4% (▲1)
12 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲2)           3% (▲1)
12 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲2)          3% (▲1)
12 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           3%
12 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼7)      3% (▼2)
12 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼7)     3% (▼2)
12 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲2)            3% (▲1)
18 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼4)             2%
18 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼4)        2%
18 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼4)      2%
18 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼4)      2%
18 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼4)        2%
23 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲6)            1%
23 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▼9)          1% (▼1)
23 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲6)           1%
23 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲6)       1%
23 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼9)    1% (▼1)
23 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼9)        1% (▼1)
23 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲6)       1%
23 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼9)        1% (▼1)
23 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▼9)          1% (▼1)
23 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▼9)           1% (▼1)

 

The NHL season has started!  The first game of the season was last Tuesday, and saw Pittsburgh defeat the defending Stanley Cup champions Tampa Bay.  That day also saw the newest team in the league, the Seattle Kraken, play their first game — they lost, 4-3, to Vegas.  The next night saw the classic Canadian match-up, with Toronto beating Montreal 2-1.  As usual, this meant Toronto continued to be first overall in the NHL — we’ll see how long that lasts!

We introduced uncertainty into our McDonald NHL Power Ratings models, and as a result, there have been a lot of changes to the ratings as the models calibrate themselves.  We expect things to settle down with accurate ratings after the teams have played about 10 games, so that should be in a couple of weeks.

Despite the uncertainty, our top 5 rated teams almost stayed the same as last week.  Colorado retains the number one ranking, having a win and a loss this week, and Pittsburgh stays in the second spot, after having two wins and one overtime loss.  Carolina has now moved into third spot, up two from last week, with two wins.  Washington, who was ranked fourth in the preseason, is still in fourth, having one win and one OTL.  Rounding out the top 5 is Minnesota, who won both of their games this week, and moved up from 9th spot in our preseason rankings.  Dropping out of the top 5 was Vegas, who were tied with Pittsburgh at number two last week, but have dropped four spots to 6th, putting them in a tie with Boston.  Vegas had a win and a loss last week.

How about the two Stanley Cup finalists from last year?  Tampa Bay, last year’s champions, are currently ranked 12th, after losing their opener to Pittsburgh, but winning their next two in overtime against Detroit and Washington.  The runner up, Montreal, is ranked 30th out of 32 teams, having started the season with three straight losses.  Despite the uncertainty in our models, we’re still only giving Montreal a 22% chance of making the playoffs.

The Top 5

1. Colorado Avalanche (1555, ▼4)

Record: 1-1-0, 3rd in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 76%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 7% (▼3)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7%

Last week: 1-1-0

• October 13: Won 4-2 vs. Chicago Blackhawks (29th, 1465)
• October 16: Lost 5-3 vs. St. Louis Blues (11th, 1519)

Next week:

• October 19: @ Washington Capitals (4th, 1542)
• October 21: @ Florida Panthers (9th, 1534)
• October 23: @ Tampa Bay Lightning (12th, 1514)

2. Pittsburgh Penguins (1552, ▲13)

Record: 2-0-1, 1st in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 73% (▲7)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 9% (▲3)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▲1)

Last week: 2-0-1

• October 12: Won 6-2 @ Tampa Bay Lightning (12th, 1514)
• October 14: Lost in OT 5-4 @ Florida Panthers (9th, 1534)
• October 16: Won 5-2 vs. Chicago Blackhawks (29th, 1465)

Next week:

• October 19: vs. Dallas Stars (18th, 1486)
• October 23: vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (8th, 1535)

3. Carolina Hurricanes ▲2 (1547, ▲13)

Record: 2-0-0, 3rd in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 72% (▲9)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 8% (▲2)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▲1)

Last week: 2-0-0

• October 14: Won 6-3 vs. New York Islanders (14th, 1501)
• October 16: Won 3-2 @ Nashville Predators (17th, 1488)

Next week:

• October 21: @ Montreal Canadiens (30th, 1463)
• October 23: @ Columbus Blue Jackets (26th, 1472)

4. Washington Capitals (1542, ▲5)

Record: 1-0-1, 4th in Metropolitan Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 67% (▲2)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 6%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 5%

Last week: 1-0-1

• October 13: Won 5-1 vs. New York Rangers (13th, 1510)
• October 16: Lost in OT 2-1 vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (12th, 1514)

Next week:

• October 19: vs. Colorado Avalanche (1st, 1555)
• October 21: @ New Jersey Devils (28th, 1470)
• October 23: vs. Calgary Flames (20th, 1483)

5. Minnesota Wild ▲4 (1540, ▲14)

Record: 2-0-0, 1st in Central Division

Chances of: 

• Making the playoffs: 76% (▲13)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 8% (▲3)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▲2)

Last week: 2-0-0

• October 15: Won 2-1 @ Anaheim Ducks (32nd, 1459)
• October 16: Won 3-2 @ Los Angeles Kings (24th, 1474)

Next week:

• October 19: vs. Winnipeg Jets (19th, 1484)
• October 23: vs. Anaheim Ducks (32nd, 1459)
• October 24: vs. Nashville Predators (17th, 1488)

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from our preseason report.

Overall Ratings

 1       Colorado Avalanche            1555 (▼4)
 2       Pittsburgh Penguins           1552 (▲13)
 3       Carolina Hurricanes (▲2)      1547 (▲13)
 4       Washington Capitals           1542 (▲5)
 5       Minnesota Wild (▲4)           1540 (▲14)
 6 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲1)            1536 (▲6)
 6 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼4)     1536 (▼3)
 8       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼2)      1535 (▲4)
 9       Florida Panthers (▼1)         1534 (▲6)
10       Edmonton Oilers               1529 (▲4)
11       St. Louis Blues (▲2)          1519 (▲9)
12       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      1514 (▼7)
13       New York Rangers (▲1)         1510 (▲1)
14       New York Islanders (▼2)       1501 (▼12)
15       Ottawa Senators (▲5)          1494 (▲9)
16       Philadelphia Flyers (▲2)      1489 (▼1)
17       Nashville Predators (▼2)      1488 (▼16)
18       Dallas Stars (▼2)             1486 (▼12)
19       Winnipeg Jets (▼3)            1484 (▼14)
20       Calgary Flames (▼1)           1483 (▼6)
21       Detroit Red Wings (▲5)        1479 (▲7)
22       San Jose Sharks (▲5)          1478 (▲7)
23       Arizona Coyotes (▼1)          1477 (▼6)
24 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        1474 (▲1)
24 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲5)           1474 (▲5)
26       Columbus Blue Jackets (▲4)    1472 (▲6)
27       Vancouver Canucks (▼4)        1471 (▼4)
28       New Jersey Devils (▼1)        1470 (▼1)
29       Chicago Blackhawks (▼5)       1465 (▼9)
30       Montreal Canadiens (▼9)       1463 (▼21)
31       Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           1461 (▲6)
32       Anaheim Ducks (▼1)            1459 (▲1)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Pittsburgh Penguins           25% (▲5)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      24% (▲6)
 3       Washington Capitals (▼1)      19%
 4       New York Rangers (▲1)         9% (▼3)
 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2)    6% (▲1)
 5 (tie) New York Islanders (▼1)       6% (▼7)
 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      6% (▼2)
 8       New Jersey Devils (▼1)        5%

Atlantic Division

 1       Florida Panthers (▲2)         22% (▲4)
 2       Boston Bruins (▼1)            21% (▲2)
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼2)      19%
 4       Tampa Bay Lightning           14% (▼2)
 5       Ottawa Senators               9% (▲1)
 6       Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        7% (▲1)
 7       Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           5% (▲1)
 8       Montreal Canadiens (▼3)       3% (▼5)

Central Division

 1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            27% (▼1)
 1 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲1)           27% (▲10)
 3       St. Louis Blues               18% (▲6)
 4       Dallas Stars (▲1)             7% (▼3)
 5 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲2)          6% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼1)      6% (▼5)
 5 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 6% (▼4)
 8       Chicago Blackhawks            4% (▼2)

Pacific Division

 1       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          27% (▲5)
 2       Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     24% (▼3)
 3       San Jose Sharks (▲3)          10% (▲2)
 4       Calgary Flames (▼1)           9% (▼3)
 5 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        8% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲1)           8%
 7       Vancouver Canucks (▼3)        7% (▼2)
 8       Anaheim Ducks                 6%

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1       Pittsburgh Penguins           73% (▲7)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      72% (▲9)
 3       Washington Capitals (▼1)      67% (▲2)
 4       New York Rangers (▲1)         49% (▼3)
 5       New York Islanders (▼1)       40% (▼15)
 6       Philadelphia Flyers           39% (▼3)
 7       Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1)    37% (▲5)
 8       New Jersey Devils (▼1)        33% (▼1)

Atlantic Division

 1       Florida Panthers (▲2)         67% (▲6)
 2       Boston Bruins (▼1)            66% (▲3)
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼2)      64% (▲1)
 4       Tampa Bay Lightning           55% (▼3)
 5       Ottawa Senators               45% (▲4)
 6       Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        38% (▲2)
 7       Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           33% (▲5)
 8       Montreal Canadiens (▼3)       22% (▼19)

Central Division

 1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            76%
 1 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲1)           76% (▲13)
 3       St. Louis Blues               66% (▲11)
 4       Dallas Stars (▲1)             44% (▼5)
 5       Nashville Predators (▼1)      40% (▼12)
 6 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲1)          39% (▼3)
 6 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            39% (▼10)
 8       Chicago Blackhawks            31% (▼7)

Pacific Division

 1       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          72% (▲7)
 2       Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     70%
 3       San Jose Sharks (▲3)          47% (▲8)
 4       Calgary Flames (▼1)           44% (▼4)
 5       Seattle Kraken (▲2)           42% (▲4)
 6       Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        41% (▲1)
 7       Vancouver Canucks (▼3)        40% (▼1)
 8       Anaheim Ducks                 35% (▲1)

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      9% (▲3)
 2 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           8% (▲2)
 2 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲4)           8% (▲3)
 4 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼3)       7% (▼3)
 4 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲2)         7% (▲2)
 6 (tie) Boston Bruins                 6% (▲1)
 6 (tie) Edmonton Oilers               6% (▲1)
 6 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼4)      6%
 9 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲4)          5% (▲2)
 9 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼3)      5%
 9 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼7)     5% (▼1)
12 (tie) New York Rangers (▲1)         3%
12 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      3% (▼1)
14 (tie) New York Islanders (▼3)       2% (▼2)
14 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲2)          2%
14 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲2)      2%
14 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲9)          2% (▲1)
18 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲5)            1%
18 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▼2)          1% (▼1)
18 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲5)           1%
18 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼2)           1% (▼1)
18 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲5)       1%
18 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲5)    1%
18 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼2)             1% (▼1)
18 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲5)        1%
18 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲5)        1%
18 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼5)      1% (▼2)
18 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲5)        1%
18 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲5)           1%
18 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲5)        1%
18 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼2)            1% (▼1)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            7%
 2 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      6% (▲1)
 2 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲7)           6% (▲2)
 2 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      6% (▲1)
 5 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼2)            5%
 5 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼2)          5%
 5 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲4)         5% (▲1)
 5 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼2)      5%
 5 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼3)     5% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼2)      5%
11       St. Louis Blues (▲1)          4% (▲1)
12 (tie) New York Rangers              3%
12 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼3)      3% (▼1)
14 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲4)          2%
14 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲4)           2%
14 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲16)   2% (▲1)
14 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼2)             2% (▼1)
14 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲4)        2%
14 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲4)        2%
14 (tie) New York Islanders (▼2)       2% (▼1)
14 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼2)      2% (▼1)
14 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲4)        2%
14 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲4)          2%
14 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲4)      2%
14 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲4)          2%
14 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲4)           2%
14 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲4)        2%
14 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼2)            2% (▼1)
29 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            1%
29 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1)           1%
29 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▼11)      1% (▼1)
29 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▼11)      1% (▼1)

 

Ah, the NHL season is about to start!  The team at McDonald NHL Power Ratings has updated our models and run our simulations, and we’ve come up with our predictions for the upcoming season.

Be aware that things have changed from last year — players have moved, retired, or come into the league, there’s a brand new team, the division alignments are back to how they were before last year’s COVID-shortened season.  As a result, we’ve added uncertainty into our models; that results in the initial ratings being lower than they might otherwise be, but they’ll eventually sort themselves out.  Our experience has been that after the first 10 games, our ratings have adjusted to the new reality.

Our rankings might seem a little surprising — last year’s Stanley Cup winning Tampa Bay Lightning are ranked 11th, and we’re only giving them a 4% chance of repeating for the third time.  We’ll see if they’ll prove us wrong!  The other Cup finals team, Montreal, is ranked 21st, and we’re giving them just a 2% chance of winning the Cup.  In fact, we’re only giving them a 41% chance of even making the playoffs!  They did just barely squeak in last year, and then had an incredible run behind their star goaltender, Carey Price.  But, we’ll see what happens.

The most-likely Canadian teams to win the Cup are the Toronto Maple Leafs and Edmonton Oilers, both at 5%.  We really should update our models to automatically give the Leafs no chance of winning, but maybe this is the year….

Our favourites to win the Stanley Cup this year are the Colorado Avalanche.  We’re currently giving them a 7% chance of winning, closely followed by Vegas with 6%.  The teams at the bottom are ABC — Anaheim, Buffalo, and Columbus (1% chance each of winning).  We’re even giving the new team, the Seattle Kraken, a better chance of winning, at 2%

Anyways, here’s the rankings and ratings.

Overall Ratings

 1       Colorado Avalanche            1559
 2 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins           1539
 2 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          1539
 4       Washington Capitals           1537
 5       Carolina Hurricanes           1534
 6       Toronto Maple Leafs           1531
 7       Boston Bruins                 1530
 8       Florida Panthers              1528
 9       Minnesota Wild                1526
10       Edmonton Oilers               1525
11       Tampa Bay Lightning           1521
12       New York Islanders            1513
13       St. Louis Blues               1510
14       New York Rangers              1509
15       Nashville Predators           1504
16 (tie) Dallas Stars                  1498
16 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 1498
18       Philadelphia Flyers           1490
19       Calgary Flames                1489
20       Ottawa Senators               1485
21       Montreal Canadiens            1484
22       Arizona Coyotes               1483
23       Vancouver Canucks             1475
24       Chicago Blackhawks            1474
25       Los Angeles Kings             1473
26       Detroit Red Wings             1472
27 (tie) New Jersey Devils             1471
27 (tie) San Jose Sharks               1471
29       Seattle Kraken                1469
30       Columbus Blue Jackets         1466
31       Anaheim Ducks                 1458
32       Buffalo Sabres                1455

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Pittsburgh Penguins           20%
 2       Washington Capitals           19%
 3       Carolina Hurricanes           18%
 4       New York Islanders            13%
 5       New York Rangers              12%
 6       Philadelphia Flyers           8%
 7 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         5%
 7 (tie) New Jersey Devils             5%

Atlantic Division

 1 (tie) Boston Bruins                 19%
 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           19%
 3       Florida Panthers              18%
 4       Tampa Bay Lightning           16%
 5 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            8%
 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators               8%
 7       Detroit Red Wings             6%
 8       Buffalo Sabres                4%

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            28%
 2       Minnesota Wild                17%
 3       St. Louis Blues               12%
 4       Nashville Predators           11%
 5 (tie) Dallas Stars                  10%
 5 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 10%
 7       Arizona Coyotes               7%
 8       Chicago Blackhawks            6%

Pacific Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          27%
 2       Edmonton Oilers               22%
 3       Calgary Flames                12%
 4 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             9%
 4 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             9%
 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks               8%
 6 (tie) Seattle Kraken                8%
 8       Anaheim Ducks                 6%

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1       Pittsburgh Penguins           66%
 2       Washington Capitals           65%
 3       Carolina Hurricanes           63%
 4       New York Islanders            55%
 5       New York Rangers              52%
 6       Philadelphia Flyers           42%
 7       New Jersey Devils             34%
 8       Columbus Blue Jackets         32%

Atlantic Division

 1 (tie) Boston Bruins                 63%
 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           63%
 3       Florida Panthers              61%
 4       Tampa Bay Lightning           58%
 5 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            41%
 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators               41%
 7       Detroit Red Wings             36%
 8       Buffalo Sabres                28%

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            76%
 2       Minnesota Wild                63%
 3       St. Louis Blues               55%
 4       Nashville Predators           52%
 5 (tie) Dallas Stars                  49%
 5 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 49%
 7       Arizona Coyotes               42%
 8       Chicago Blackhawks            38%

Pacific Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          70%
 2       Edmonton Oilers               65%
 3       Calgary Flames                48%
 4       Vancouver Canucks             41%
 5       Los Angeles Kings             40%
 6       San Jose Sharks               39%
 7       Seattle Kraken                38%
 8       Anaheim Ducks                 34%

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Colorado Avalanche            10%
 2 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           6%
 2 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins           6%
 2 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          6%
 2 (tie) Washington Capitals           6%
 6 (tie) Boston Bruins                 5%
 6 (tie) Edmonton Oilers               5%
 6 (tie) Florida Panthers              5%
 6 (tie) Minnesota Wild                5%
 6 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           5%
11 (tie) New York Islanders            4%
11 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           4%
13 (tie) New York Rangers              3%
13 (tie) Nashville Predators           3%
13 (tie) St. Louis Blues               3%
16 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               2%
16 (tie) Calgary Flames                2%
16 (tie) Dallas Stars                  2%
16 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            2%
16 (tie) Ottawa Senators               2%
16 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           2%
16 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 2%
23 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 1%
23 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                1%
23 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            1%
23 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         1%
23 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             1%
23 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             1%
23 (tie) New Jersey Devils             1%
23 (tie) San Jose Sharks               1%
23 (tie) Seattle Kraken                1%
23 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             1%

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            7%
 2       Vegas Golden Knights          6%
 3 (tie) Boston Bruins                 5%
 3 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           5%
 3 (tie) Edmonton Oilers               5%
 3 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins           5%
 3 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs           5%
 3 (tie) Washington Capitals           5%
 9 (tie) Florida Panthers              4%
 9 (tie) Minnesota Wild                4%
 9 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning           4%
12 (tie) Dallas Stars                  3%
12 (tie) New York Islanders            3%
12 (tie) New York Rangers              3%
12 (tie) Nashville Predators           3%
12 (tie) St. Louis Blues               3%
12 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 3%
18 (tie) Arizona Coyotes               2%
18 (tie) Calgary Flames                2%
18 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            2%
18 (tie) Detroit Red Wings             2%
18 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             2%
18 (tie) Montreal Canadiens            2%
18 (tie) New Jersey Devils             2%
18 (tie) Ottawa Senators               2%
18 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           2%
18 (tie) San Jose Sharks               2%
18 (tie) Seattle Kraken                2%
18 (tie) Vancouver Canucks             2%
30 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 1%
30 (tie) Buffalo Sabres                1%
30 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         1%