Two more Game 4s last night, but neither of those series could end in a sweep, as they were both 2-1.
In the first game, Carolina visited New York to play the Rangers. Ever the bad hosts, the Rangers won the game 4-1 to tie the series at 2 games apiece. In all four games of the series, the home team has won. In fact, Carolina has lost all 5 of their road games these playoffs, but won all of their home games! Andrew Copp led the Rangers with a goal and two assists. With the win, New York now has a 42.9% chance of winning the series. That doesn’t seem like much, but it’s up 17.1 percentage points from before the game!
In the second game, the Battle of Alberta continued in Edmonton. After falling behind 3-0, Calgary battled back and tied the game halfway through the third period, with the third goal coming on a 132 foot shot from their own blue line that fooled Oilers goalie Mike Smith. But, Edmonton scored again five minutes later to take a 4-3 lead, and iced it with an empty netter. Edmonton was led by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Evander Kane, who both scored twice, and Leon Draisaitl, who assisted on three goals. Draisaitl is the first player in NHL history to have at least three points in four straight playoff games. Connor McDavid, who had two assists, has scored at least two points in seven games, which ties him for the second-longest multipoint streak in NHL history; Darryl Sittler for Toronto in 1977 and Tony Currie for St. Louis in 1981 also had a seven game streak. Wayne Gretzky holds the record for longest such streak, with eight games in 1983.
With the win, Edmonton leads the series 3-1 as the teams head to Calgary for Game 5. We’ve calculated that Edmonton has an 86.5% chance of winning the series, up from 67.9% after Game 3. They have a 47.0% chance of winning it in the next game.
There’s only one game on the slate tonight, as St. Louis plays in Colorado. Colorado leads that series 3-1, and we’re giving them a 92.3% chance of winning the series, with a 63.0% chance of winning it tonight.
Yesterday’s Games
Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts)
Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 4
- Series tied 2-2
- Carolina now has a 57.1% chance of winning the series, down from 74.2%
Series schedule:
- May 18: NY Rangers 1 at Carolina 2 (OT)
- May 20: NY Rangers 0 at Carolina 2
- May 22: Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 3
- May 24: Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 4
- May 26: NY Rangers at Carolina
- May 28: Carolina at NY Rangers
- May 30: NY Rangers at Carolina (if necessary)
New simulation results:
- Carolina has a 57.1% chance of winning (▼17.1)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0% (▼30.8)
- In 6 games: 28.9% (▲5.2)
- In 7 games: 28.2% (▲8.5)
- NY Rangers has a 42.9% chance of winning (▲17.1)
- In 7 games: 20.5% (▲6.2)
- In 6 games: 22.5% (▲11.0)
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)
Calgary 3 at Edmonton 5
- Edmonton leads series 3-1
- Edmonton now has a 86.5% chance of winning the series, up from 67.9%
Series schedule:
- May 18: Edmonton 6 at Calgary 9
- May 20: Edmonton 5 at Calgary 3
- May 22: Calgary 1 at Edmonton 4
- May 24: Calgary 3 at Edmonton 5
- May 26: Edmonton at Calgary
- May 28: Calgary at Edmonton (if necessary)
- May 30: Edmonton at Calgary (if necessary)
New simulation results:
- Calgary has a 13.5% chance of winning (▼18.6)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 0.0% (▼12.2)
- In 7 games: 13.5% (▼6.3)
- Edmonton has a 86.5% chance of winning (▲18.6)
- In 7 games: 9.7% (▼5.0)
- In 6 games: 29.7% (▲2.8)
- In 5 games: 47.0% (▲20.7)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Today’s Games
Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)
St. Louis at Colorado
- Colorado leads series 3-1
- Colorado has a 92.3% chance of winning the series
Playoff Matchups
Eastern Conference
Florida (1st in Atlantic, 122 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)
Tampa Bay wins series 4-0
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Florida: 1591, 4th overall
- Tampa Bay: 1574, 7th overall
Head-to-head this year (4 games):
- Florida: 2 regulation wins
- Tampa Bay: 1 regulation win, 1 overtime win
Last round:
- Florida: defeated Washington (1530, 14th) in 6 games
- Tampa Bay: defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
Series schedule:
- May 17: Tampa Bay 4 at Florida 1
- May 19: Tampa Bay 2 at Florida 1
- May 22: Florida 1 at Tampa Bay 5
- May 23: Florida 0 at Tampa Bay 2
Carolina (1st in Metropolitan, 116 pts) vs. NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts)
Series tied 2-2
Chances of winning: Carolina 57.1%, NY Rangers 42.9%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Carolina: 1595, tied for 2nd overall
- NY Rangers: 1568, 8th overall
Head-to-head this year (4 games):
- Carolina: 3 regulation wins
- NY Rangers: 1 regulation win
Last round:
- Carolina: defeated Boston (1559, 11th) in 7 games
- NY Rangers: defeated Pittsburgh (1540, 12th) in 7 games
Series schedule:
- May 18: NY Rangers 1 at Carolina 2 (OT)
- May 20: NY Rangers 0 at Carolina 2
- May 22: Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 3
- May 24: Carolina 1 at NY Rangers 4
- May 26: NY Rangers at Carolina
- May 28: Carolina at NY Rangers
- May 30: NY Rangers at Carolina (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Carolina has a 57.1% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 28.9%
- In 7 games: 28.2%
- NY Rangers has a 42.9% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 20.5%
- In 6 games: 22.5%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Western Conference
Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. St. Louis (3rd in Central, 109 pts)
Colorado leads series 3-1
Chances of winning: Colorado 92.3%, St. Louis 7.7%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Colorado: 1623, 1st overall
- St. Louis: 1595, tied for 2nd overall
Head-to-head this year (3 games):
- Colorado: 2 regulation wins
- St. Louis: 1 regulation win
Last round:
- Colorado: defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
- St. Louis: defeated Minnesota (1575, 7th) in 6 games
Series schedule:
- May 17: St. Louis 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
- May 19: St. Louis 4 at Colorado 1
- May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 2
- May 23: Colorado 6 at St. Louis 3
- May 25: St. Louis at Colorado
- May 27: Colorado at St. Louis (if necessary)
- May 29: St. Louis at Colorado (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Colorado has a 92.3% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 63.0%
- In 6 games: 18.1%
- In 7 games: 11.2%
- St. Louis has a 7.7% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 7.7%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Calgary (1st in Pacific, 111 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)
Edmonton leads series 3-1
Chances of winning: Calgary 13.5%, Edmonton 86.5%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Calgary: 1582, 6th overall
- Edmonton: 1564, 9th overall
Head-to-head this year (4 games):
- Calgary: 2 regulation wins
- Edmonton: 2 regulation wins
Last round:
- Calgary: defeated Dallas (1509, 18th) in 7 games
- Edmonton: defeated Los Angeles (1534, 13th) in 7 games
Series schedule:
- May 18: Edmonton 6 at Calgary 9
- May 20: Edmonton 5 at Calgary 3
- May 22: Calgary 1 at Edmonton 4
- May 24: Calgary 3 at Edmonton 5
- May 26: Edmonton at Calgary
- May 28: Calgary at Edmonton (if necessary)
- May 30: Edmonton at Calgary (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Calgary has a 13.5% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 7 games: 13.5%
- Edmonton has a 86.5% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 9.7%
- In 6 games: 29.7%
- In 5 games: 47.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Chances of winning the Stanley Cup
1 Colorado Avalanche 22.6% 2 Carolina Hurricanes 15.1% 3 Florida Panthers 14.6% 4 St. Louis Blues 11.7% 5 Calgary Flames 11.6% 6 Tampa Bay Lightning 9.2% 7 New York Rangers 7.8% 8 Edmonton Oilers 7.2%
These chances were calculated at the end of the first round of the playoffs.