Category: predictions

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – Playoff Report, June 19, 2022

Hockey playerLast night, Colorado showed why they are the top-ranked team in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings, as they handed Tampa Bay a 7-0 drubbing in the second game of the Stanley Cup Finals.  The Avalanche scored early, taking a 1-0 lead only 2:54 into the game, and they kept the pressure on, outshooting the Lightning 15-1 in the first 10 minutes of the game.  They led 3-0 after the first, and scored twice in both the 2nd and 3rd period.  Valeri Nichushkin and Cale Makar both scored twice for Colorado, and Mikko Rantanen had three assists.  Darcy Kuemper only needed to stop 16 shots to get the shutout, as Colorado outshot Tampa Bay 30-16, although I guess both teams got 15 shots in the last 50 minutes of the game!

Colorado now leads the series 2-0.  We’ve calculated that they now have an 87.8% chance of winning the series, including a 30.2% chance of a sweep.  Games 3 and 4 go in Tampa Bay on Monday and Wednesday nights.

Yesterday’s Game

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Tampa Bay 0 at Colorado 7

  • Colorado leads series 2-0
  • Colorado now has a 87.8% chance of winning the series, up from 76.7%

Series schedule:

  • June 15: Tampa Bay 3 at Colorado 4 (OT)
  • June 18: Tampa Bay 0 at Colorado 7
  • June 20: Colorado at Tampa Bay
  • June 22: Colorado at Tampa Bay
  • June 24: Tampa Bay at Colorado (if necessary)
  • June 26: Colorado at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
  • June 28: Tampa Bay at Colorado (if necessary)

New simulation results:

  • Colorado has a 87.8% chance of winning (▲11.1)
    • In 4 games: 30.2% (▲11.2)
    • In 5 games: 30.9% (▲5.1)
    • In 6 games: 15.4% (▼1.6)
    • In 7 games: 11.3% (▼3.5)
  • Tampa Bay has a 12.2% chance of winning (▼11.1)
    • In 7 games: 7.6% (▼2.1)
    • In 6 games: 4.6% (▼4.8)
    • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼4.1)
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Monday’s Games

Colorado at Tampa Bay

  • Colorado leads series 2-0
  • Colorado has a 87.8% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Stanley Cup Finals

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Colorado leads series 2-0

Chances of winning: Colorado 87.8%, Tampa Bay 12.2%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Colorado: 1660, 1st overall
  • Tampa Bay: 1616, 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (2 games):

  • Colorado: 1 regulation win, 1 shootout win
  • Tampa Bay: 0 wins

Previous rounds:

  • Colorado:
    • defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
    • defeated St. Louis (1595, T-2nd) in 6 games
    • defeated Edmonton (1589, 3rd) in 4 games
  • Tampa Bay:
    • defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
    • defeated Florida (1591, 4th) in 4 games
    • defeated NY Rangers (1581, 4th) in 6 games

Series schedule:

  • June 15: Tampa Bay 3 at Colorado 4 (OT)
  • June 18: Tampa Bay 0 at Colorado 7
  • June 20: Colorado at Tampa Bay
  • June 22: Colorado at Tampa Bay
  • June 24: Tampa Bay at Colorado (if necessary)
  • June 26: Colorado at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
  • June 28: Tampa Bay at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Colorado has a 87.8% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 30.2%
    • In 5 games: 30.9%
    • In 6 games: 15.4%
    • In 7 games: 11.3%
  • Tampa Bay has a 12.2% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 7.6%
    • In 6 games: 4.6%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            63.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           36.3%

These chances were calculated before the final round of the playoffs.

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – Playoff Report, June 16, 2022

Hockey playerAfter what seems like forever, the Stanley Cup Finals have finally started!  And the first game was worth the wait!!!

Tampa Bay travelled to Colorado to open the series.  Tampa Bay is the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion, while Colorado has been the top-ranked team, and the favourite to win the Stanley Cup, in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings for most of the season.  But, despite being ranked #1 AND playing at home, Colorado was put to the test by the Lightning.  The Avalanche held a 3-1 lead after the first period, and it looked like they might be walking away with the game, but Tampa Bay came back with two goals in the second to tie it up at 3 heading into the third.  After neither team scored in the third period, the game headed to overtime, where Andre Burakovsky scored 1:23 into the extra frame to give the Avalanche the hard-fought 4-3 victory.

With the victory, the McDonald NHL Power Ratings team has now calculated that the Avalanche have a 76.7% chance of winning the Stanley Cup, up from 63.7% before the series started.  Game 2 goes Saturday night in Colorado.

Yesterday’s Game

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Tampa Bay 3 at Colorado 4 (OT)

  • Colorado leads series 1-0
  • Colorado now has a 76.7% chance of winning the series, up from 63.7%

Series schedule:

  • June 15: Tampa Bay 3 at Colorado 4 (OT)
  • June 18: Tampa Bay at Colorado
  • June 20: Colorado at Tampa Bay
  • June 22: Colorado at Tampa Bay
  • June 24: Tampa Bay at Colorado (if necessary)
  • June 26: Colorado at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
  • June 28: Tampa Bay at Colorado (if necessary)

New simulation results:

  • Colorado has a 76.7% chance of winning (▲13.0)
    • In 4 games: 19.0% (▲7.2)
    • In 5 games: 25.8% (▲6.0)
    • In 6 games: 17.0% (▲1.0)
    • In 7 games: 14.8% (▼1.3)
  • Tampa Bay has a 23.3% chance of winning (▼13.0)
    • In 7 games: 9.7% (▼0.9)
    • In 6 games: 9.4% (▼3.3)
    • In 5 games: 4.1% (▼4.1)
    • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼4.9)

Saturday’s Game

Tampa Bay at Colorado

  • Colorado leads series 1-0
  • Colorado has a 76.7% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Stanley Cup Finals

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Colorado leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Colorado 76.7%, Tampa Bay 23.3%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Colorado: 1660, 1st overall
  • Tampa Bay: 1616, 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (2 games):

  • Colorado: 1 regulation win, 1 shootout win
  • Tampa Bay: 0 wins

Previous rounds:

  • Colorado:
    • defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
    • defeated St. Louis (1595, T-2nd) in 6 games
    • defeated Edmonton (1589, 3rd) in 4 games
  • Tampa Bay:
    • defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
    • defeated Florida (1591, 4th) in 4 games
    • defeated NY Rangers (1581, 4th) in 6 games

Series schedule:

  • June 15: Tampa Bay 3 at Colorado 4 (OT)
  • June 18: Tampa Bay at Colorado
  • June 20: Colorado at Tampa Bay
  • June 22: Colorado at Tampa Bay
  • June 24: Tampa Bay at Colorado (if necessary)
  • June 26: Colorado at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
  • June 28: Tampa Bay at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Colorado has a 76.7% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 19.0%
    • In 5 games: 25.8%
    • In 6 games: 17.0%
    • In 7 games: 14.8%
  • Tampa Bay has a 23.3% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 9.7%
    • In 6 games: 9.4%
    • In 5 games: 4.1%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            63.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           36.3%

These chances were calculated before the final round of the playoffs.

McDonald CFL Power Ratings – Week 1

CFL logoThe CFL regular season has started!!!  It was a good week for the home team, as all 4 games ended with home victories.  As might be expected, the Eastern Division doesn’t look real good, as the first place team is Toronto, with an unblemished 0-0-0 record.  Okay, maybe that’s not fair, as all four games this week were held in the West, but we like to poke fun at the traditionally weaker Eastern Division.

In the season opener on Thursday night, Montreal played Calgary in Calgary.  It was an exciting game, with the scored tied at 27 with 45 seconds left, when Rene Paredes kicked the game-winning field goal to give Calgary the 30-27 victory.  Stampeders running back Ka’Deem Carey was the standout player of the game, scoring two touchdowns and racking up 90 all-purpose yards.  Montreal’s Eugene Lewis was the leading receiver, pulling in 4 passes for 112 yards, including a 55-yarder.  Unfortunately for the Alouettes, their star running back William Stanback was injured in the second quarter and didn’t return — that might have been the difference in the game.

Friday night, the Ottawa RedBlacks travelled to Winnipeg to face the two-time defending champion Blue Bombers.  In the second exciting game of the weekend, Winnipeg pulled out a come-from-behind victory when kicker Marc Liegghio put through a 25-yard field goal, giving Winnipeg a 19-17 victory.  Quarterback Zach Collaros led Winnipeg with an 18-for-26, 188 yard, 1 touchdown performance, before being pulled late in the fourth quarter after taking a hit to the head. Backup QB Dru Brown came in and put together the game-winning drive for the Bombers.  In a losing cause, new RedBlacks quarterback Jeremiah Masoli put in an impressive performance, going 24-for-34 throwing for 380 yards and a touchdown.

The game all CFL fans were waiting for started a double-header on Saturday, as Hamilton visited Mosaic Stadium to face the Saskatchewan Roughriders.  What, aren’t all CFL fans Rider fans?  Maybe it just seems like it.  Anyways, the game was a low-scoring affair for three and a half quarters, with neither team scoring a touchdown until Hamilton scored with 7:10 left in the game to narrow Saskatchewan’s lead to 15-13.  And then Saskatchewan exploded, scoring two touchdowns 20 seconds apart (separated by a Rider interception) to give the home team the 30-13 victory.  Kicker Brett Lauther led the Rider scoring, going 5-for-5 in his field goal attempts, while quarterback Cody Fajardo went 22-for-32 for 311 yards, as well as being the game’s leading rusher with 42 yards.

In Saturday’s nightcap, Chris Jones’ coaching/GM career with the Edmonton Elks looked like how it ended when he held the dual role with Saskatchewan, as his much-vaunted defense held the BC Lions to 59 points in a resounding 59-15 thumping by British Columbia.  New BC quarterback Nathan Rourke went 26-for-29 (wait a minute, let me check that — yes, 26 for 29!) for 282 yards and three touchdowns, while also running for 78 yards and scoring two touchdowns himself.  Lions running back James Butler also had a good night, rushing for 108 yards and scoring 4 touchdowns, 2 on the ground and 2 receiving TDs.

It was an exciting first week of the season!  The McDonald CFL Power Ratings team are looking forward to next week!

Week 1 Results

Montreal 27 at Calgary 30
Ottawa 17 at Winnipeg 19
Hamilton 13 at Saskatchewan 30Edmonton 15 at British Columbia 59

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

Here’s the McDonald CFL Power Ratings after the first week.  Remember, we’ve adjusted these ratings to account for the early season uncertainty, but still, we’ve got two-time defending CFL champion Winnipeg as the top team.  Despite losing in the final seconds to last year’s champion, we have Ottawa as the lowest-ranked team, even after Edmonton’s drubbing by British Columbia.  But, we’re not super confident in these ratings; it usually takes about 4 games before that uncertainty gets worked out of the rating system.  Anyways, here’s this week’s ratings.

Ranking Team Rating Record
1 Winnipeg 1557 (▲8) 1-0, T-1st West
2 Saskatchewan 1540 (▲11) 1-0, T-1st West
3 Calgary 1535 (▲10) 1-0, T-1st West
4 (tie) (▲1) Toronto 1509 0-0, 1st East
4 (tie) Hamilton 1509 (▼11) 0-1, T-2nd East
6 Montreal 1488 (▼10) 0-1, T-2nd East
7 British Columbia 1483 (▲10) 1-0, T-1st West
8 Edmonton 1452 (▼10) 0-1, 5th West
9 Ottawa 1441 (▼8) 0-1, T-2nd East

Grey Cup Predictions

There is very little change in our Grey Cup predictions, as would be expected this early in the season.  Winnipeg is still the favourite to win, now with a 20% chance of winning it.  After their first game drubbing, Edmonton has dropped down to just a 2% Grey Cup-winning probability.  Overall, there’s a 61% chance of a Western team winning, which is helped by the Grey Cup being held in Regina this year.

Grey Cup Ranking Team Rating Win Grey Cup
1 Winnipeg 1557 20% (▲1)
2 Saskatchewan 1540 17% (▲1)
3 Calgary 1535 15% (▲1)
4 Hamilton 1509 11% (▼1)
5 (tie) Montreal 1488 10% (▼1)
5 (tie) Toronto 1509 10% (▼1)
7 (tie) Ottawa 1441 7%
7 (tie) (▲1) British Columbia 1483 7% (▲1)
9 Edmonton 1452 2% (▼3)

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.  There’s not much to add beyond what was said earlier.

Team Rating Make Playoffs Host Playoff Game Win Division Make Division Final Make Grey Cup Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg

1-0, T-1st in West

 1557 85% 57% 32% 57% 32% 20%
Saskatchewan

1-0, T-1st in West

 1540 82% 51% 26% 51% 26% 17%
Calgary

1-0, T-1st in West

 1535 80% 50% 25% 50% 25% 15%
Hamilton

0-1, T-2nd in East

 1509 69% 56% 29% 56% 27% 11%
Montreal

0-1, T-2nd in East

 1488 64% 50% 23% 50% 27% 10%
Toronto

0-0, 1st in East

 1509 74% 62% 35% 62% 26% 10%
Ottawa

0-1, T-2nd in East

 1441 45% 32% 12% 32% 19% 7%
British Columbia

1-0, T-1st in West

 1483 63% 29% 12% 29% 12% 7%
Edmonton

0-1, 5th in West

 1452 38% 13% 5% 13% 5% 2%

Week 2 Game Predictions

Thursday: Montreal (40%) at Toronto (60%)
Friday: Winnipeg (59%) at Ottawa (41%)
Saturday: Calgary (47%) at Hamilton (53%)
Saturday: Saskatchewan (55%) at Edmonton (45%)

 

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – Playoff Report, June 12, 2022

Hockey playerAnd then there were 2.  The Eastern Conference Final of the Stanley Cup playoffs have completed, and we now know who’s playing in the Finals.

Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Final was played last night, with two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay playing at home against the New York Rangers.  Tampa Bay held a 3-2 lead in the series.  In yet another tight game, the Lightning defeated the Rangers 2-1.  Neither team scored in the first period, and it wasn’t until 10:43 of the second that Steven Stamkos scored to give the Lightning a 1-0 lead, and that’s how the second period ended.  The Rangers fought back, though, and finally evened the score at 13:07 of the third period.  But, 21 seconds later, Stamkos scored again to put the Lightning back up 2-1, and that’s the way it ended, giving Tampa Bay the 4-2 series victory and a berth in the Finals.

So, Colorado faces Tampa Bay in the Stanley Cup Finals, with the series starting on Wednesday.  Colorado has been the top-ranked team in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings for most of the season, but Tampa Bay is the two-time defending champion.  In the season series, the two teams only faced each other twice, with Colorado winning both games, although one had to go to a shootout before it was decided.  After looking at the performances of the two teams in the Conference Finals, our team of hockey experts and mathematical wizards have crunched the numbers, and are predicting a Colorado victory, giving them a 63.7% / 36.3% edge over Tampa Bay.

No games until Wednesday!  What’s the CBC going to do to fill their schedule?  We’re hoping that they have a Beachcombers marathon each night that hockey isn’t on.

Yesterday’s Game

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

NY Rangers 1 at Tampa Bay 2

  • Tampa Bay wins series 4-2

Series schedule:

  • June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 6
  • June 3: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 3
  • June 5: NY Rangers 2 at Tampa Bay 3
  • June 7: NY Rangers 1 at Tampa Bay 4
  • June 9: Tampa Bay 3 at NY Rangers 1
  • June 11: NY Rangers 1 at Tampa Bay 2

Wednesday’s Game

Tampa Bay at Colorado

  • Series tied 0-0
  • Colorado has a 63.7% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference Finals

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Tampa Bay wins series 4-2

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • NY Rangers: 1581, 4th overall
  • Tampa Bay: 1603, 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

  • NY Rangers: 2 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
  • Tampa Bay: 0 wins

Previous rounds:

  • NY Rangers:
    • defeated Pittsburgh (1540, 12th) in 7 games
    • defeated Carolina (1595, T-2nd) in 7 games
  • Tampa Bay:
    • defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
    • defeated Florida (1591, 4th) in 4 games

Series schedule:

  • June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 6
  • June 3: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 3
  • June 5: NY Rangers 2 at Tampa Bay 3
  • June 7: NY Rangers 1 at Tampa Bay 4
  • June 9: Tampa Bay 3 at NY Rangers 1
  • June 11: NY Rangers 1 at Tampa Bay 2

Western Conference Finals

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Colorado wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Colorado: 1635, 1st overall
  • Edmonton: 1589, 3rd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

  • Colorado: 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
  • Edmonton: 1 regulation win

Previous rounds:

  • Colorado:
    • defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
    • defeated St. Louis (1595, T-2nd) in 6 games
  • Edmonton:
    • defeated Los Angeles (1534, 13th) in 7 games
    • defeated Calgary (1582, 6th) in 5 games

Series schedule:

  • May 31: Edmonton 6 at Colorado 8
  • June 2: Edmonton 0 at Colorado 4
  • June 4: Colorado 4 at Edmonton 2
  • June 6: Colorado 6 at Edmonton 5 (OT)

Stanley Cup Finals

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Series tied 0-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Colorado: 1660, 1st overall
  • Tampa Bay: 1616, 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (2 games):

  • Colorado: 1 regulation win, 1 shootout win
  • Tampa Bay: 0 wins

Previous rounds:

  • Colorado:
    • defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
    • defeated St. Louis (1595, T-2nd) in 6 games
    • defeated Edmonton (1589, 3rd) in 4 games
  • Tampa Bay:
    • defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
    • defeated Florida (1591, 4th) in 4 games
    • defeated NY Rangers (1581, 4th) in 6 games

Series schedule:

  • June 15: Tampa Bay at Colorado
  • June 18: Tampa Bay at Colorado
  • June 20: Colorado at Tampa Bay
  • June 22: Colorado at Tampa Bay
  • June 24: Tampa Bay at Colorado (if necessary)
  • June 26: Colorado at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
  • June 28: Tampa Bay at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Colorado has a 63.7% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 11.8%
    • In 5 games: 19.8%
    • In 6 games: 16.0%
    • In 7 games: 16.1%
  • Tampa Bay has a 36.3% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 10.6%
    • In 6 games: 12.7%
    • In 5 games: 8.2%
    • In 4 games: 4.9%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            63.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           36.3%

These chances were calculated before the Stanley Cup Finals started.

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – Playoff Report, June 10, 2022

Hockey playerGame 5 of the Eastern Conference Final went last night, with the New York Rangers and Tampa Bay Lightning tied at 2 games apiece.  The first four games were all won by the home team, and as the game was played in New York, the Rangers hoped that that trend would continue.  But, alas, it was not to be, as the Lightning won the game 3-1.  In a tight, low-scoring affair, the teams were knotted at 0-0 halfway through the second period.  The Rangers scored first, when Ryan Lindgren scored at 10:29 of the second frame, but Mikhail Sergachev tied it up 7 minutes later.  That’s the way the score remained until 1:50 left in the game, when Sergachev flipped a wrister from the blue line that bounced off of Ondrej Palat’s knee and snuck behind a screened Igor Shesterkin.  The Lightning finished off the scoring with an empty-netter in the final minute to take the game 3-1.

With the victory, the Lightning grab a 3-2 lead in the series, and the teams head south for Game 6 in Tampa Bay.  We’ve calculated that Tampa Bay now has a 79.4% chance of winning the series, an increase of 28% from before Game 5.  Colorado continues to wait for the victor of this series to face in the Stanley Cup Finals.

Yesterday’s Game

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Tampa Bay 3 at NY Rangers 1

  • Tampa Bay leads series 3-2
  • Tampa Bay now has a 79.4% chance of winning the series, up from 51.4%

Series schedule:

  • June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 6
  • June 3: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 3
  • June 5: NY Rangers 2 at Tampa Bay 3
  • June 7: NY Rangers 1 at Tampa Bay 4
  • June 9: Tampa Bay 3 at NY Rangers 1
  • June 11: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
  • June 14: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)

New simulation results:

  • NY Rangers has a 20.6% chance of winning (▼28.0)
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 6 games: 0.0% (▼22.9)
    • In 7 games: 20.6% (▼5.1)
  • Tampa Bay has a 79.4% chance of winning (▲28.0)
    • In 7 games: 18.3% (▼4.5)
    • In 6 games: 61.1% (▲32.4)
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Saturday’s Game

NY Rangers at Tampa Bay

  • Tampa Bay leads series 3-2
  • Tampa Bay has a 79.4% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference Finals

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Tampa Bay leads series 3-2

Chances of winning: NY Rangers 20.6%, Tampa Bay 79.4%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • NY Rangers: 1581, 4th overall
  • Tampa Bay: 1603, 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

  • NY Rangers: 2 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
  • Tampa Bay: 0 wins

Previous rounds:

  • NY Rangers:
    • defeated Pittsburgh (1540, 12th) in 7 games
    • defeated Carolina (1595, T-2nd) in 7 games
  • Tampa Bay:
    • defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
    • defeated Florida (1591, 4th) in 4 games

Series schedule:

  • June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 6
  • June 3: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 3
  • June 5: NY Rangers 2 at Tampa Bay 3
  • June 7: NY Rangers 1 at Tampa Bay 4
  • June 9: Tampa Bay 3 at NY Rangers 1
  • June 11: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
  • June 14: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • NY Rangers has a 20.6% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 6 games: 0.0%
    • In 7 games: 20.6%
  • Tampa Bay has a 79.4% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 18.3%
    • In 6 games: 61.1%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Western Conference Finals

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Colorado wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Colorado: 1635, 1st overall
  • Edmonton: 1589, 3rd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

  • Colorado: 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
  • Edmonton: 1 regulation win

Previous rounds:

  • Colorado:
    • defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
    • defeated St. Louis (1595, T-2nd) in 6 games
  • Edmonton:
    • defeated Los Angeles (1534, 13th) in 7 games
    • defeated Calgary (1582, 6th) in 5 games

Series schedule:

  • May 31: Edmonton 6 at Colorado 8
  • June 2: Edmonton 0 at Colorado 4
  • June 4: Colorado 4 at Edmonton 2
  • June 6: Colorado 6 at Edmonton 5 (OT)

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            39.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           24.7%
 3       New York Rangers              18.2%
 4       Edmonton Oilers               17.4%

These chances were calculated at the end of the second round of the playoffs.

McDonald CFL Power Ratings Preseason Report

Experts predict Winnipeg wins 3rd straight Grey Cup

CFL logoAs the NHL playoffs begin winding down, the McDonald Power Ratings team can only think of one thing — the CFL is starting soon!!!  We’ve done our usual evaluation of teams, looked at the transactions, honed our predictions based on each team’s schedule, and run all of our simulations.  We’ve got our predictions for this year, and here’s a summary of what we’re expecting.

Initial Ratings

Let’s start with a warning about our doubts with our initial ratings.  Last year was an odd year, as COVID reduced the length of the schedule from 18 to 14 games, and there was some schedule rescheduling as a result of teams being affected by COVID.  In an effort to increase scoring, the league honchos have tweaked the rules, most notably moving the hash marks closer to the centre of the field in the misplaced belief that it will open up the game.  As a result, we have adjusted our ratings to account for this uncertainty.  We always adjust our initial ratings to decrease the ratings for the better than average teams and increase the ratings for the worse than average teams, but we’ve adjusted by a larger amount than normal this year.  As the first few games are played, the ratings will be adjusted appropriately, but for now, here’s our initial ratings to give an indication of how we think the season will go.

Ranking Team Rating 2021 Record 2021 Playoffs
1 Winnipeg 1549 11-3, 1st West Won Grey Cup
2 Saskatchewan 1529 9-5, 2nd West Lost West Final
3 Calgary 1525 8-6, 3rd West Lost West Semi
4 Hamilton 1520 8-6, 2nd East Lost Grey Cup
5 Toronto 1509 9-5, 1st East Lost East Final
6 Montreal 1498 7-7, 3rd East Lost East Semi
7 British Columbia 1473 5-9, 4th West —
8 Edmonton 1462 3-11, 5th West —
9 Ottawa 1449 3-11, 4th East —

What about those rule changes???

As we mentioned above, the CFL felt that, because scoring was down, they needed to change the rules to allow more offensive scoring.  You can read a good article about all of the rule changes here.  We’ve surveyed the entire McDonald Power Ratings team, and they are unanimous in thinking that the rule changes are dumb.  If teams want more scoring, they can try more inventive play calling.  Most teams seem to follow the same formula: 1st down, run the ball up the middle; 2nd down, pass for a first down (or just short of a first down); 3rd down, punt.  That makes for pretty boring games.  Well, in the CFL’s favour, they didn’t decide to add a fourth down.

Our biggest disappointment with the rule changes is once again making all no-yards penalties be 15 yards.  For some reason, players from the States never seem to understand that you’ve got to give the punt returner 5 yards.  We expect we’ll see a return to the standard strategy of letting the ball bounce, wait for the kicking team to infringe on the 5 yard zone, then pick up the ball and get an automatic 15 yard return.  We’ve seen it before, we’ll see it again.

What’s the McDonald Power Ratings team formula for increased excitement and, as a result, increased attendance at the games?  Always have the visiting team be the Saskatchewan Roughriders, because all us watermelon heads that have spread throughout the country will pack the stands and cheer wildly!

Grey Cup Predictions

OK, on to our predictions.  After adjusting our ratings and running our simulations, here’s what we’re expecting.

Grey Cup Ranking Team Rating Win Grey Cup
1 Winnipeg 1549 19%
2 Saskatchewan 1529 16%
3 Calgary 1525 14%
4 Hamilton 1520 12%
5 (tie) Toronto 1509 11%
5 (tie) Montreal 1498 11%
7 Ottawa 1449 7%
8 British Columbia 1473 6%
9 Edmonton 1462 5%

Winnipeg has won the last two Grey Cups, and they are our favourite to win it again this year.  They clearly dominated the league last year, and by the looks of things, they’re the strongest team again this year.  Saskatchewan looked good last year as well, and as the Grey Cup will be held in Regina this year, that gives the Riders a boost in their chances, as long as they can make it to the Grey Cup!  We think that Hamilton is the strongest team in the East, and are our top choice from the East.  We think that Edmonton is the least likely to win the Grey Cup, and for any non-fans of Elks GM and head coach Chris Jones, you won’t be surprised.

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions for the season.

Team Rating Make Playoffs Host Playoff Game Win Division Make Division Final Make Grey Cup Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg 1549 80% 56% 32% 56% 32% 19%
Saskatchewan 1529 75% 47% 24% 47% 24% 16%
Calgary 1525 74% 47% 23% 47% 23% 14%
Hamilton 1520 75% 59% 32% 59% 27% 12%
Toronto 1509 72% 56% 29% 56% 26% 11%
Montreal 1498 69% 52% 25% 52% 27% 11%
Ottawa 1449 50% 33% 13% 33% 20% 7%
British Columbia 1473 54% 27% 11% 27% 11% 6%
Edmonton 1462 50% 24% 10% 24% 10% 5%

Week 1 Game Predictions

Thursday: Montreal (39%) at Calgary (61%)
Friday: Ottawa (30%) at Winnipeg (70%)
Saturday: Hamilton (42%) at Saskatchewan (58%)
Saturday: Edmonton (41%) at British Columbia (59%)

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – Playoff Report, June 8, 2022

Hockey playerLast night, it was Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Final, with the New York Rangers playing the Lightning in Tampa Bay.  New York had a 2-1 lead, and with Game 5 heading back to New York, two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay needed a win.  And they came through!  Tampa Bay scored early, going up 1-0 2:38 into the game, and held that lead through the 1st period.  In the second period, Tampa Bay scored the only goal, and went into the 3rd period leading 2-0.  They scored again 5 minutes into the 3rd to take a 3-0 lead, but the Rangers managed to score a powerplay goal with 3 and a half minutes left, but that was all they could manage.  The Lightning scored an empty netter with 9 seconds left to take the game 4-1.

With the Tampa Bay win, the series is now tied 2 games apiece.  The McDonald NHL Power Ratings team is now giving the Lightning a slight edge to win the series, with a 51.4% chance, despite 2 of the next 3 games being held in New York, and all games so far in the series have been won by the home team.

There is no game tonight, as Colorado won the Western Conference Final in 4 games.  The next game goes tomorrow night, with Tampa Bay playing in New York.

Yesterday’s Game

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

NY Rangers 1 at Tampa Bay 4

  • Series tied 2-2
  • Tampa Bay now has a 51.4% chance of winning the series, up from 34.3%

Series schedule:

  • June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 6
  • June 3: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 3
  • June 5: NY Rangers 2 at Tampa Bay 3
  • June 7: NY Rangers 1 at Tampa Bay 4
  • June 9: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers
  • June 11: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
  • June 14: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)

New simulation results:

  • NY Rangers has a 48.6% chance of winning (▼17.1)
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼24.4)
    • In 6 games: 22.9% (▲1.9)
    • In 7 games: 25.7% (▲5.4)
  • Tampa Bay has a 51.4% chance of winning (▲17.1)
    • In 7 games: 22.8% (▲4.9)
    • In 6 games: 28.7% (▲12.3)
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Thursday’s Game

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Tampa Bay at NY Rangers

  • Series tied 2-2
  • Tampa Bay has a 51.4% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference Finals

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: NY Rangers 48.6%, Tampa Bay 51.4%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • NY Rangers: 1581, 4th overall
  • Tampa Bay: 1603, 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

  • NY Rangers: 2 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
  • Tampa Bay: 0 wins

Previous rounds:

  • NY Rangers:
    • defeated Pittsburgh (1540, 12th) in 7 games
    • defeated Carolina (1595, T-2nd) in 7 games
  • Tampa Bay:
    • defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
    • defeated Florida (1591, 4th) in 4 games

Series schedule:

  • June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 6
  • June 3: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 3
  • June 5: NY Rangers 2 at Tampa Bay 3
  • June 7: NY Rangers 1 at Tampa Bay 4
  • June 9: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers
  • June 11: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
  • June 14: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • NY Rangers has a 48.6% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 6 games: 22.9%
    • In 7 games: 25.7%
  • Tampa Bay has a 51.4% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 22.8%
    • In 6 games: 28.7%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Western Conference Finals

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Colorado wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Colorado: 1635, 1st overall
  • Edmonton: 1589, 3rd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

  • Colorado: 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
  • Edmonton: 1 regulation win

Previous rounds:

  • Colorado:
    • defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
    • defeated St. Louis (1595, T-2nd) in 6 games
  • Edmonton:
    • defeated Los Angeles (1534, 13th) in 7 games
    • defeated Calgary (1582, 6th) in 5 games

Series schedule:

  • May 31: Edmonton 6 at Colorado 8
  • June 2: Edmonton 0 at Colorado 4
  • June 4: Colorado 4 at Edmonton 2
  • June 6: Colorado 6 at Edmonton 5 (OT)

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            39.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           24.7%
 3       New York Rangers              18.2%
 4       Edmonton Oilers               17.4%

These chances were calculated at the end of the second round of the playoffs.

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – Playoff Report, June 7, 2022

Hockey playerWhat a game!  Game 4 of the Western Conference Final went last night, with Colorado playing in Edmonton.  Colorado led the series 3-0, but both teams were playing like they were on the edge of elimination!  Colorado led 1-0 after the first period, but Edmonton tied it up early in the second period, and it stayed tied at 1 until there were 3 minutes left in the second period, and then things exploded!  Edmonton scored twice at the tail end of the period and led 3-1 going into the final frame.  The fireworks continued as Colorado scored 31 seconds into the 3rd period to narrow the lead to 3-2, but then Edmonton scored again to move up 4-2 after 4 minutes.  Then, Colorado exploded for 3 more goals to take a 5-4 lead with 5 minutes left, but Edmonton came storming back and tied it back up with three and a half minutes left.  That’s the way regulation time ended, 5-5, after 6 goals were scored in the 3rd period, and 8 goals in the last 23 minutes!  Overtime didn’t last long, as Artturi Lehkonen scored 1:19 in to win the game, and the series, for Colorado.

Cale Makar led the Avalanche, scoring once and assisting on four other Colorado goals!  Not to be outdone (not by much, anyways), Leon Draisaitl had four assists for Edmonton.  Backup goalie Pavel Francouz got the start, and the win, for Colorado.  With the sweep, Colorado now moves on to the final, awaiting the winner of the Eastern Conference Final, which will go at least 5 games.  Unfortunately, there is now no chance that a Canadian team will win the Stanley Cup again this year.  Thanks, Toronto!

And tonight’s game is Game 4 of that Eastern Conference Final.  The New York Rangers play in Tampa Bay, with a 2-1 series lead.  We have calculated that New York now has a 65.7% chance of winning that series.

Yesterday’s Game

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Colorado 6 at Edmonton 5 (OT)

  • Colorado wins series 4-0

Series schedule:

  • May 31: Edmonton 6 at Colorado 8
  • June 2: Edmonton 0 at Colorado 4
  • June 4: Colorado 4 at Edmonton 2
  • June 6: Colorado 6 at Edmonton 5 (OT)

Today’s Game

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

NY Rangers at Tampa Bay

  • NY Rangers leads series 2-1
  • NY Rangers has a 65.7% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference Finals

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

NY Rangers leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: NY Rangers 65.7%, Tampa Bay 34.3%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • NY Rangers: 1581, 4th overall
  • Tampa Bay: 1603, 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

  • NY Rangers: 2 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
  • Tampa Bay: 0 wins

Previous rounds:

  • NY Rangers:
    • defeated Pittsburgh (1540, 12th) in 7 games
    • defeated Carolina (1595, T-2nd) in 7 games
  • Tampa Bay:
    • defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
    • defeated Florida (1591, 4th) in 4 games

Series schedule:

  • June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 6
  • June 3: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 3
  • June 5: NY Rangers 2 at Tampa Bay 3
  • June 7: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
  • June 9: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers
  • June 11: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
  • June 14: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • NY Rangers has a 65.7% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 24.4%
    • In 6 games: 21.0%
    • In 7 games: 20.3%
  • Tampa Bay has a 34.3% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 17.9%
    • In 6 games: 16.4%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Western Conference Finals

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Colorado wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Colorado: 1635, 1st overall
  • Edmonton: 1589, 3rd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

  • Colorado: 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
  • Edmonton: 1 regulation win

Previous rounds:

  • Colorado:
    • defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
    • defeated St. Louis (1595, T-2nd) in 6 games
  • Edmonton:
    • defeated Los Angeles (1534, 13th) in 7 games
    • defeated Calgary (1582, 6th) in 5 games

Series schedule:

  • May 31: Edmonton 6 at Colorado 8
  • June 2: Edmonton 0 at Colorado 4
  • June 4: Colorado 4 at Edmonton 2
  • June 6: Colorado 6 at Edmonton 5 (OT)

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            39.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           24.7%
 3       New York Rangers              18.2%
 4       Edmonton Oilers               17.4%

These chances were calculated at the end of the second round of the playoffs.

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – Playoff Report, June 6, 2022

Hockey playerIn last night’s game, the New York Rangers travelled to Tampa Bay to face the Lightning, with the Rangers holding a 2-0 series lead.  In a close close game, Tampa Bay came back from being down 2-0 to take the victory with a 3-2 final score when Ondrej Palat scored the go-ahead goal with 42 seconds left in the game.  Tampa Bay peppered Ranger goalie Igor Shesterkin with 52 shots, outshooting New York 19-6 in the third period when they outscored them 2-0.  With the victory, the Lightning trail the Rangers 2-1 in the series, and we’ve calculated that the Rangers are still the favourites to win the series, now with a 65.7% chance of winning it, down from 78.4% after Game 2.

Tonight, Edmonton hosts Colorado, with Colorado hoping to sweep the series, as they currently hold a 3-0 lead.  We’re giving Colorado a 97.0% chance of winning the series, and a 56.0% chance of finishing off the series tonight.

Yesterday’s Game

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

NY Rangers 2 at Tampa Bay 3

  • NY Rangers leads series 2-1
  • NY Rangers now has a 65.7% chance of winning the series, down from 78.4%

Series schedule:

  • June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 6
  • June 3: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 3
  • June 5: NY Rangers 2 at Tampa Bay 3
  • June 7: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
  • June 9: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers
  • June 11: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
  • June 14: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)

New simulation results:

  • NY Rangers has a 65.7% chance of winning (▼12.7)
    • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼21.1)
    • In 5 games: 24.4% (▼2.7)
    • In 6 games: 21.0% (▲5.1)
    • In 7 games: 20.3% (▲6.1)
  • Tampa Bay has a 34.3% chance of winning (▲12.7)
    • In 7 games: 17.9% (▲5.3)
    • In 6 games: 16.4% (▲7.4)
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Game

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Colorado at Edmonton

  • Colorado leads series 3-0
  • Colorado has a 97.0% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference Finals

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

NY Rangers leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: NY Rangers 65.7%, Tampa Bay 34.3%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • NY Rangers: 1581, 4th overall
  • Tampa Bay: 1603, 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

  • NY Rangers: 2 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
  • Tampa Bay: 0 wins

Previous rounds:

  • NY Rangers:
    • defeated Pittsburgh (1540, 12th) in 7 games
    • defeated Carolina (1595, T-2nd) in 7 games
  • Tampa Bay:
    • defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
    • defeated Florida (1591, 4th) in 4 games

Series schedule:

  • June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 6
  • June 3: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 3
  • June 5: NY Rangers 2 at Tampa Bay 3
  • June 7: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
  • June 9: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers
  • June 11: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
  • June 14: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • NY Rangers has a 65.7% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 24.4%
    • In 6 games: 21.0%
    • In 7 games: 20.3%
  • Tampa Bay has a 34.3% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 17.9%
    • In 6 games: 16.4%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Western Conference Finals

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Colorado leads series 3-0

Chances of winning: Colorado 97.0%, Edmonton 3.0%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Colorado: 1635, 1st overall
  • Edmonton: 1589, 3rd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

  • Colorado: 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
  • Edmonton: 1 regulation win

Previous rounds:

  • Colorado:
    • defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
    • defeated St. Louis (1595, T-2nd) in 6 games
  • Edmonton:
    • defeated Los Angeles (1534, 13th) in 7 games
    • defeated Calgary (1582, 6th) in 5 games

Series schedule:

  • May 31: Edmonton 6 at Colorado 8
  • June 2: Edmonton 0 at Colorado 4
  • June 4: Colorado 4 at Edmonton 2
  • June 6: Colorado at Edmonton
  • June 8: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)
  • June 10: Colorado at Edmonton (if necessary)
  • June 12: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Colorado has a 97.0% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 56.0%
    • In 5 games: 28.6%
    • In 6 games: 7.9%
    • In 7 games: 4.6%
  • Edmonton has a 3.0% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 3.0%
    • In 6 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            39.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           24.7%
 3       New York Rangers              18.2%
 4       Edmonton Oilers               17.4%

These chances were calculated at the end of the second round of the playoffs.

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – Playoff Report, June 5, 2022

Hockey playerIn a tight game, the Colorado Avalanche defeated the Edmonton Oilers in Edmonton by a score of 4-2.  The Oilers took the lead when Connor McDavid scored on the very first shot of the game, 38 seconds in.  The Avalanche tied it up before the end of the first period, and held a 2-1 lead after two periods.  The Oilers tied it up on a Ryan McLeod goal at 7:34 of the third, before J.T. Compher put the Avs back in front 5 minutes later.  The Oilers couldn’t come back, and the Avs finished the game with an empty netter.

The win gives the Avalanche a 3-0 series lead.  We’ve calculated that they now have a 97.0% chance of winning the series, and a 56.0% chance of sweeping it with a victory on Monday.  The Oilers have been playing well, but they’ll need to win the next 4 against the top-rated team in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings, and although possible (3% chance), it’s not very likely to happen.

There’s an afternoon game today as Tampa Bay hosts the New York Rangers.  The Rangers hold a 2-0 lead in the series, and Tampa Bay needs help from the home advantage to get back into the series.  We’re giving the Rangers a 78.4% chance of winning the series.

Yesterday’s Game

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Colorado 4 at Edmonton 2

  • Colorado leads series 3-0
  • Colorado now has a 97.0% chance of winning the series, up from 87.9%

Series schedule:

  • May 31: Edmonton 6 at Colorado 8
  • June 2: Edmonton 0 at Colorado 4
  • June 4: Colorado 4 at Edmonton 2
  • June 6: Colorado at Edmonton
  • June 8: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)
  • June 10: Colorado at Edmonton (if necessary)
  • June 12: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)

New simulation results:

  • Colorado has a 97.0% chance of winning (▲9.1)
    • In 4 games: 56.0% (▲25.7)
    • In 5 games: 28.6% (▼2.4)
    • In 6 games: 7.9% (▼7.5)
    • In 7 games: 4.6% (▼6.7)
  • Edmonton has a 3.0% chance of winning (▼9.1)
    • In 7 games: 3.0% (▼4.5)
    • In 6 games: 0.0% (▼4.6)
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Game

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

NY Rangers at Tampa Bay

  • NY Rangers leads series 2-0
  • NY Rangers has a 78.4% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference Finals

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

NY Rangers leads series 2-0

Chances of winning: NY Rangers 78.4%, Tampa Bay 21.6%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • NY Rangers: 1581, 4th overall
  • Tampa Bay: 1603, 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

  • NY Rangers: 2 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
  • Tampa Bay: 0 wins

Previous rounds:

  • NY Rangers:
    • defeated Pittsburgh (1540, 12th) in 7 games
    • defeated Carolina (1595, T-2nd) in 7 games
  • Tampa Bay:
    • defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
    • defeated Florida (1591, 4th) in 4 games

Series schedule:

  • June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 6
  • June 3: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 3
  • June 5: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
  • June 7: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
  • June 9: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)
  • June 11: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
  • June 14: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • NY Rangers has a 78.4% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 21.1%
    • In 5 games: 27.1%
    • In 6 games: 15.9%
    • In 7 games: 14.2%
  • Tampa Bay has a 21.6% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 12.6%
    • In 6 games: 9.0%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Western Conference Finals

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Colorado leads series 3-0

Chances of winning: Colorado 97.0%, Edmonton 3.0%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Colorado: 1635, 1st overall
  • Edmonton: 1589, 3rd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

  • Colorado: 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
  • Edmonton: 1 regulation win

Previous rounds:

  • Colorado:
    • defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
    • defeated St. Louis (1595, T-2nd) in 6 games
  • Edmonton:
    • defeated Los Angeles (1534, 13th) in 7 games
    • defeated Calgary (1582, 6th) in 5 games

Series schedule:

  • May 31: Edmonton 6 at Colorado 8
  • June 2: Edmonton 0 at Colorado 4
  • June 4: Colorado 4 at Edmonton 2
  • June 6: Colorado at Edmonton
  • June 8: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)
  • June 10: Colorado at Edmonton (if necessary)
  • June 12: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Colorado has a 97.0% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 56.0%
    • In 5 games: 28.6%
    • In 6 games: 7.9%
    • In 7 games: 4.6%
  • Edmonton has a 3.0% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 3.0%
    • In 6 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            39.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           24.7%
 3       New York Rangers              18.2%
 4       Edmonton Oilers               17.4%

These chances were calculated at the end of the second round of the playoffs.