The McDonald NHL Power Ratings Playoff Reports are back! After a short hiatus, I’m back at my computer and have updated everything. Note that I’ve also included the final reports from the first round series; that’s only because I haven’t released those before, and they’ll be gone in tomorrow’s report.
We’ve also calculated the chances of each team winning the Stanley Cup. The results of our simulations are shown at the very bottom of today’s Playoff Report. They were calculated based on the results of the first-round playoff series. Colorado continues to be the favourite to win it all, at 36.0%. We’ve calculated the chances of a Canadian team winning the Cup to be 8.3% (Winnipeg 6.2%, Montreal 2.3%).
Of course, while I was away, Toronto continued their streak of futility, losing yet another playoff series. After Game 4, when Toronto was leading the series 3-1, we gave them a 95% chance of winning the series. But, as every Strat-O-Matic player knows, sometimes you roll a 20, so nothing is a sure thing. I chalk it up to a failure in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings model; we don’t take into account the Curse of Harold Ballard!
But on to last night’s games. Two exciting games last night, but both ended a little unsatisfying. In the first game, Montreal travelled to Winnipeg to open the North Division Final. Montreal was up 4-2 with just a couple of minutes left in the game, so Winnipeg pulled their goalie. It paid off, as Kyle Connor scored for Winnipeg with 1:42 left in the game to narrow the score to 4-3. They had plenty of pressure, so it looked to be an exciting finish, but Montreal got the puck and took a long shot which missed the empty net, but Jake Evans reached the puck first and swept it around to give Montreal a 5-3 lead with 57 seconds left. But, Mark Scheifele, rushing back to try to stop the goal, charged Evans and flattened him after the goal was scored. It was a vicious hit after the goal, and Scheifele was given a boarding major, a game misconduct, and will likely face a suspension. Evans appeared to be unconscious after the hit, and was taken off the ice in a stretcher, but seemed to be moving his hands, so we’re hoping he’ll be alright.
In the late game, the second game of the West Division final was played in Colorado, with Colorado having a 1-0 lead over Vegas. The first game of the series was a blowout, 7-1 for Colorado, but this was a much closer game, with Vegas dominating for much of the game. The game ended regulation time 2-2, and went into overtime. There was a rare overtime penalty call 44 seconds in, as Reilly Smith slashed the stick out of the hands of Mikko Rantanen. Vegas didn’t agree with the call, but whether it was a good penalty or whether Rantanen dropped his stick is hard to say, but the call stood. On the ensuing powerplay, Rantanen scored to give Colorado the 3-2 victory.
There are two games tonight. In the first, Boston travels to the Nassau County Coliseum to face the New York Islanders in the second game of the East Division Final. The series is tied, and we’re giving Boston a 56.2% chance of winning the series. In the second game, Carolina visits Tampa Bay, down 2-0 in the series. We’re giving Tampa Bay an 82.7% chance of winning that series.
Yesterday’s Games
North Division Final
Montreal 5 at Winnipeg 3
- Montreal leads series 1-0
- Montreal now has a 59.3% chance of winning the series, up from 38.2%
Series schedule:
- June 2: Montreal 5 at Winnipeg 3
- June 4: Montreal at Winnipeg
- June 6: Winnipeg at Montreal
- June 7: Winnipeg at Montreal
- June 9: Montreat at Winnipeg (if necessary)
- June 11: Winnipeg at Montreal (if necessary)
- June 13 Montreal at Winnipeg (if necessary)
New simulation results:
- Winnipeg has a 40.7% chance of winning (▼21.1)
- In 4 games: 0.0% (▼11.2)
- In 5 games: 9.3% (▼9.7)
- In 6 games: 13.7% (▼1.9)
- In 7 games: 17.7% (▲1.6)
- Montreal has a 59.3% chance of winning (▲21.1)
- In 7 games: 11.8% (▲0.9)
- In 6 games: 18.4% (▲5.1)
- In 5 games: 15.5% (▲6.8)
- In 4 games: 13.6% (▲8.3)
West Division Final
Vegas 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
- Colorado leads series 2-0
- Colorado now has an 89.3% chance of winning, up from 79.0%
Series schedule:
- May 30: Vegas 1 at Colorado 7
- June 2: Vegas 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
- June 4: Colorado at Vegas
- June 6: Colorado at Vegas
- June 8: Vegas at Colorado (if necessary)
- June 10: Colorado at Vegas (if necessary)
- June 12: Vegas at Colorado (if necessary)
New simulation results:
- Colorado has a 89.3% chance of winning (▲10.3)
- In 4 games: 32.4% (▲11.3)
- In 5 games: 30.9% (▲4.6)
- In 6 games: 15.1% (▼2.0)
- In 7 games: 10.9% (▼3.6)
- Vegas has a 10.7% chance of winning (▼10.3)
- In 7 games: 6.7% (▼2.2)
- In 6 games: 4.0% (▼4.5)
- In 5 games: 0.0% (▼3.6)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Today’s Games
East Division Final
Boston at New York Islanders
- Series tied 1-1
- Boston has a 56.2% chance of winning the series
Central Division Final
Carolina at Tampa Bay
- Tampa Bay leads series 2-0
- Tampa Bay has an 82.7% chance of winning the series
Playoff Matchups – Division Finals
Central Division
Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)
Tampa Bay leads series 2-0
Chances of winning: Carolina 17%, Tampa Bay 83%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Carolina: 1572, 4th overall
- Tampa Bay: 1554, 6th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Carolina: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
- Tampa Bay: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
Last round:
- Carolina: Defeated Nashville in 6 games
- Tampa Bay: Defeated Florida in 6 games
Series schedule:
- May 30: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
- June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at Carolina 1
- June 3: Carolina at Tampa Bay
- June 5: Carolina at Tampa Bay
- June 8: Tampa Bay at Carolina (if necessary)
- June 10: Carolina at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
- June 12: Tampa Bay at Carolina (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Carolina has a 17.3% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 6 games: 5.4%
- In 7 games: 11.9%
- Tampa Bay has a 82.7% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 8.5%
- In 6 games: 18.2%
- In 5 games: 21.3%
- In 4 games: 34.7%
East Division
Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)
Series tied 1-1
Chances of winning: Boston 56%, New York Islanders 44%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Boston: 1582, 2nd overall
- New York Islanders: 1543, 7th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Boston: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
- New York Islanders: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
Last round:
- Boston: Defeated Washington in 5 games
- New York Islanders: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games
Series schedule:
- May 29: New York Islanders 2 at Boston 5
- May 31: New York Islanders 4 at Boston 3 (OT)
- June 3: Boston at New York Islanders
- June 5: Boston at New York Islanders
- June 7: New York Islanders at Boston
- June 9: Boston at New York Islanders (if necessary)
- June 11: New York Islanders at Boston (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Boston has a 56.2% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 16.0%
- In 6 games: 19.3%
- In 7 games: 20.9%
- New York Islanders has a 43.8% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 13.7%
- In 6 games: 18.2%
- In 5 games: 11.9%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
West Division
Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts)
Colorado leads series 2-0
Chances of winning: Colorado 89%, Vegas 11%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Colorado: 1638, 1st overall
- Vegas: 1578, 3rd overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Colorado: 4 regulation wins
- Vegas: 3 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
Last round:
- Colorado: Defeated St. Louis in 4 games
- Vegas: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games
Series schedule:
- May 30: Vegas 1 at Colorado 7
- June 2: Vegas 2 at Colorado 3 (OT)
- June 4: Colorado at Vegas
- June 6: Colorado at Vegas
- June 8: Vegas at Colorado (if necessary)
- June 10: Colorado at Vegas (if necessary)
- June 12: Vegas at Colorado (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Colorado has a 89.3% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 32.5%
- In 5 games: 30.9%
- In 6 games: 15.2%
- In 7 games: 10.8%
- Vegas has a 10.7% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 6.7%
- In 6 games: 4.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
North Division
Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)
Montreal leads series 1-0
Chances of winning: Winnipeg 41%, Montreal 59%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Winnipeg: 1526, 7th overall
- Montreal: 1489, 8th overall
Head-to-head this year (9 games):
- Winnipeg: 3 regulation wins, 3 overtime wins
- Montreal: 3 regulation wins
Last round:
- Winnipeg: Defeated Edmonton in 4 games
- Montreal: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
Series schedule:
- June 2: Montreal 5 at Winnipeg 3
- June 4: Montreal at Winnipeg
- June 6: Winnipeg at Montreal
- June 7: Winnipeg at Montreal
- June 9: Montreat at Winnipeg (if necessary)
- June 11: Winnipeg at Montreal (if necessary)
- June 13 Montreal at Winnipeg (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Winnipeg has a 40.7% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 9.3%
- In 6 games: 13.7%
- In 7 games: 17.7%
- Montreal has a 59.3% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 11.8%
- In 6 games: 18.4%
- In 5 games: 15.5%
- In 4 games: 13.6%
Playoff Matchups – Round 1
Central Division
Carolina (1st in Central, 80 pts) vs. Nashville (4th in Central, 64 pts)
Carolina wins series 4-2
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Carolina: 1565, 5th overall
- Nashville: 1506, 15th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Carolina: 5 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
- Nashville: 2 regulation wins
Last 10 regular season games:
- Carolina: 5-2-3
- Nashville: 7-2-1
Series schedule:
- May 17: Nashville 2 at Carolina 5
- May 19: Nashville 0 at Carolina 3
- May 21: Carolina 4 at Nashville 5 (2OT)
- May 23: Carolina 3 at Nashville 4 (2OT)
- May 25: Nashville 2 at Carolina 3 (OT)
- May 27: Carolina 4 at Nashville 3 (OT)
Florida (2nd in Central, 79 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts)
Tampa Bay wins series 4-2
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Florida: 1553, 8th overall
- Tampa Bay: 1539, 11th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Florida: 5 regulation wins
- Tampa Bay: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
Last 10 regular season games:
- Florida: 8-2-0
- Tampa Bay: 6-3-1
Series schedule:
- May 16: Tampa Bay 5 at Florida 4
- May 18: Tampa Bay 3 at Florida 1
- May 20: Florida 6 at Tampa Bay 5 (OT)
- May 22: Florida 2 at Tampa Bay 6
- May 24: Tampa Bay 1 at Florida 4
- May 26: Florida 0 at Tampa Bay 4
East Division
Pittsburgh (1st in East, 77 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)
New York Islanders win series 4-2
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Pittsburgh: 1575, 2nd overall
- NY Islanders: 1523, 12th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Pittsburgh: 4 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
- New York Islanders: 2 regulation wins
Last 10 regular season games:
- Pittsburgh: 8-2-0
- New York Islanders: 3-4-3
Series schedule:
- May 16: New York Islanders 4 at Pittsburgh 3 (OT)
- May 18: New York Islanders 1 at Pittsburgh 2
- May 20: Pittsburgh 5 at New York Islanders 4
- May 22: Pittsburgh 1 at New York Islanders 4
- May 24: New York Islanders 3 at Pittsburgh 2 (2OT)
- May 26: Pittsburgh 3 at New York Islanders 5
Washington (2nd in East, 77 pts) vs. Boston (3rd in East, 73 pts)
Boston wins series 4-1
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Washington: 1572, 4th overall
- Boston: 1557, 7th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Washington: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
- Boston: 4 regulation wins
Last 10 regular season games:
- Washington: 7-2-1
- Boston: 6-3-1
Series schedule:
- May 15: Boston 2 at Washington 3 (OT)
- May 17: Boston 4 at Washington 3 (OT)
- May 19: Washington 2 at Boston 3 (2OT)
- May 21: Washington 1 at Boston 4
- May 23: Boston 3 at Washington 1
West Division
Colorado (1st in West, 82 pts) vs. St. Louis (4th in West, 63 pts)
Colorado wins series 4-0
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Colorado: 1616, 1st overall
- St. Louis: 1517, 13th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Colorado: 5 regulation wins
- St. Louis: 3 regulation wins
Last 10 regular season games:
- Colorado: 8-2-0
- St. Louis: 6-1-3
Series schedule:
- May 17: St. Louis 1 at Colorado 4
- May 19: St. Louis 3 at Colorado 6
- May 21: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 1
- May 23: Colorado 5 at St. Louis 2
Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Minnesota (3rd in West, 75 pts)
Vegas wins series 4-3
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Vegas: 1575, 2nd overall
- Minnesota: 1550, 9th overall
Head-to-head this year (8 games):
- Vegas: 1 regulation win, 2 overtime wins
- Minnesota: 4 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
Last 10 regular season games:
- Vegas: 7-3-0
- Minnesota: 5-3-2
Series schedule:
- May 16: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 0 (OT)
- May 18: Minnesota 1 at Vegas 3
- May 20: Vegas 5 at Minnesota 2
- May 22: Vegas 4 at Minnesota 0
- May 24: Minnesota 4 at Vegas 2
- May 26: Vegas 0 at Minnesota 3
- May 28: Minnesota 2 at Vegas 6
North Division
Toronto (1st in North, 77 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)
Montreal wins series 4-3
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Toronto: 1560, 6th overall
- Montreal: 1467, 21st overall
Head-to-head this year (10 games):
- Toronto: 6 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
- Montreal: 2 regulation wins, 1 overtime win
Last 10 regular season games:
- Toronto: 7-1-2
- Montreal: 4-4-2
Series schedule:
- May 20: Montreal 3 at Toronto 2
- May 22: Montreal 1 at Toronto 5
- May 24: Toronto 2 at Montreal 1
- May 25: Toronto 4 at Montreal 0
- May 27: Montreal 4 at Toronto 3 (OT)
- May 29: Toronto 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)
- May 31: Montreal 3 at Toronto 1
Edmonton (2nd in North, 72 pts) vs. Winnipeg (3rd in North, 63 pts)
Winnipeg wins series 4-0
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Edmonton: 1548, 10th overall
- Winnipeg: 1494, 17th overall
Head-to-head this year (9 games):
- Edmonton: 7 regulation wins
- Winnipeg: 2 regulation wins
Last 10 regular season games:
- Edmonton: 7-3-0
- Winnipeg: 3-7-0
Series schedule:
- May 19: Winnipeg 4 at Edmonton 1
- May 21: Winnipeg 1 at Edmonton 0 (OT)
- May 23: Edmonton 4 at Winnipeg 5 (OT)
- May 24: Edmonton 3 at Winnipeg 4 (3OT)
Chances of winning the Stanley Cup
These chances were calculated before the division finals started.
1 Colorado Avalanche 36.0%
2 Boston Bruins 15.0%
3 Carolina Hurricanes 13.0%
4 Vegas Golden Knights 12.5%
5 Tampa Bay Lightning 8.7%
6 New York Islanders 6.3%
7 Winnipeg Jets 6.2%
8 Montreal Canadiens 2.3%
Today’s McDonald NHL Power Ratings Playoff Report is brought to you by the number 1: one game last night, one series finished, one team moves on, one team goes home, and there’s one series left to be decided in the Division finals!