Author: Shane

LISTEN UP, HOCKEY FANATICS! The NHL ice is melting under the heat of a mid-December war path! We’ve got juggernauts extending their dominance and former kings falling into the abyss. This isn’t just a game; it’s a high-speed collision course for the Cup!

Here is your weekly war report for the period ending December 21, 2025:

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THE ELITE FIVE: THE MOUNTAINTOP

• Colorado (1st, 1635) The Avalanche are essentially playing a different sport! They pounded Seattle and Utah this week before an absolute statement win—destroying Minnesota 5-1 on Sunday. They are sitting on a 21% chance to hoist the Cup, and with a playoff probability of over 99%, the rest of the league is just fighting for second place!

• Dallas (2nd, 1594) Total. Offensive. Annihilation. The Stars didn’t just win this week; they committed larceny. An 8-3 blowout of Anaheim followed by a 5-1 thrashing of Toronto? This team is deep, dangerous, and holds an 11% chance to win it all.

• Washington (3, +1, 1547) The Capitals survive a rocky week to climb a rung! Despite a shutout loss to the Wild, they managed to stifle Toronto 4-0. They’re clinging to a 79% playoff chance, but they better find some consistency before the Metropolitan sharks start circling.

• Minnesota (4, +2, 1540) A week of polar opposites! They looked like gods in a 5-0 shutout of Washington and a 5-2 win over Edmonton, but they got a reality check from the Avs to end the week. Still, they jumped 2 spots and boast a massive 93% playoff probability.

• Vegas (4, -1, 1540) The Golden Knights are bleeding! They dropped a shootout to New Jersey, got doubled up by Calgary, and surrendered 4 goals to Edmonton. They fall to a tie for 4th, and their playoff odds have slipped to 86%.

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THE VELOCITY REPORT

BIGGEST RISERS

• Buffalo (17, +8, 1492): The Sabres are on a TEAR! Eight spots in one week? They took down Philly, the Isles, and New Jersey. Their playoff hopes have spiked to 37%. Don’t look now, but the Sabres are relevant!

• Ottawa (12, +6, 1511): The Sens are surging! They crushed Pittsburgh and Chicago, moving up 6 spots. They now have a 55% chance to make the dance.

• St. Louis (13, +5, 1505): A 5-spot jump after a massive 6-2 win over Florida. They’re still long shots with 30% playoff odds, but they’re showing life!

BIGGEST FALLERS

• Pittsburgh (21, -10, 1488): A total collapse! Ten spots gone in seven days. Getting shut out by Montreal and Ottawa? Brutal. Their playoff odds plummeted to 38%.

• NY Islanders (15, -5, 1497): Falling like a stone. They lost to Detroit, Vancouver, and Buffalo. A 56% playoff chance feels shaky right now.

• NY Rangers (26, -5, 1471): The Broadway Blues are real. They fell 5 spots and are staring at a grim 26% chance to see the postseason.

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DIVISION DOGFIGHTS

Atlantic Division

It is a bloodbath in the Atlantic! Detroit (10, +2, 1517) has clawed into the top spot with a 20% chance to win the division. But watch out—Montreal (13, +2, 1505) is right on their heels at 15%, and Tampa Bay (6, -1, 1535) is still the heavy favorite to actually win it at 26% despite a minor dip!

Metropolitan Division

Carolina (7, 1525) is the undisputed king of the Metro with a 41% chance to take the crown. Washington (3, +1, 1547) is trying to keep pace at 26%, but they lost ground this week. Philadelphia (19, +4, 1489) is the sleeper, moving up to a 9% divisional win probability!

Central Division

Welcome to the Colorado Invitational. The Avalanche have an 80% stranglehold on this division. Dallas is the only team within shouting distance at 18%. Everyone else? You’re just playing for a Wild Card spot. Winnipeg, St. Louis, and Chicago all have less than a 1% chance to win the Central.

Pacific Division

The most chaotic race in hockey! Vegas collapsed this week, seeing their division win odds tank from 55% to 37%. That opened the door for Edmonton (9, +4, 1524), who saw their odds jump to 20%, and Los Angeles (7, +1, 1525), now sitting at 21%. Anaheim (22, -1, 1487) rounds out the top four at 16%.

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

The top 5

1. Colorado Avalanche (1635, ▲16)

Record: 26-2-7, 1st in Central Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 78% (▲8)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 21% (▲3)

Last week: 3-0-0

• December 16: Won 5-3 @ Seattle Kraken (31st, 1446)
• December 19: Won 3-2 vs. Winnipeg Jets (19th, 1489)
• December 21: Won 5-1 @ Minnesota Wild (4th, 1540)

Next week:

• December 23: vs. Utah Mammoth (25th, 1476)
• December 27: @ Vegas Golden Knights (4th, 1540)

2. Dallas Stars (1594, ▲23)

Record: 25-7-5, 2nd in Central Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: >99% (▲2)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 17% (▲6)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 11% (▲2)

Last week: 4-0-0

• December 15: Won 4-1 vs. Los Angeles Kings (7th, 1525)
• December 18: Won 5-3 @ San Jose Sharks (32nd, 1431)
• December 19: Won 8-3 @ Anaheim Ducks (22nd, 1487)
• December 21: Won 5-1 vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (18th, 1491)

Next week:

• December 23: @ Detroit Red Wings (10th, 1517)
• December 27: vs. Chicago Blackhawks (30th, 1448)

3. Washington Capitals ▲1 (1547, ▼10)

Record: 19-12-5, 2nd in Metropolitan Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 79% (▼5)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 1% (▼2)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▼1)

Last week: 1-2-1

• December 16: Lost 5-0 @ Minnesota Wild (4th, 1540)
• December 18: Won 4-0 vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (18th, 1491)
• December 20: Lost 5-2 vs. Detroit Red Wings (10th, 1517)
• December 21: Lost in OT 3-2 @ Detroit Red Wings (10th, 1517)

Next week:

• December 23: vs. New York Rangers (26th, 1471)
• December 27: @ New Jersey Devils (24th, 1477)

4 (tie). Minnesota Wild ▲3 (1540, ▲13)

Record: 22-10-5, 3rd in Central Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 93% (▲7)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 1% (▼1)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 4%

Last week: 3-1-0

• December 16: Won 5-0 vs. Washington Capitals (3rd, 1547)
• December 18: Won 5-2 @ Columbus Blue Jackets (29th, 1454)
• December 20: Won 5-2 vs. Edmonton Oilers (9th, 1524)
• December 21: Lost 5-1 vs. Colorado Avalanche (1st, 1635)

Next week:

• December 23: vs. Nashville Predators (28th, 1463)
• December 27: @ Winnipeg Jets (19th, 1489)

4 (tie). Vegas Golden Knights ▼1 (1540, ▼18)

Record: 16-8-10, 2nd in Pacific Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 86% (▼7)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 1% (▼4)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 5% (▼3)

Last week: 0-2-1

• December 17: Lost in SO 2-1 vs. New Jersey Devils (24th, 1477)
• December 20: Lost 6-3 @ Calgary Flames (15th, 1497)
• December 21: Lost 4-3 @ Edmonton Oilers (9th, 1524)

Next week:

• December 23: vs. San Jose Sharks (32nd, 1431)
• December 27: vs. Colorado Avalanche (1st, 1635)

Overall Ratings

 1       Colorado Avalanche            1635 (▲16)
 2       Dallas Stars                  1594 (▲23)
 3       Washington Capitals (▲1)      1547 (▼10)
 4 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲3)           1540 (▲13)
 4 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     1540 (▼18)
 6       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      1535 (▼11)
 7 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      1525 (▲1)
 7 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        1525 (▼4)
 9       Edmonton Oilers (▲3)          1524 (▲17)
10       Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        1517 (▲7)
11       Florida Panthers (▲2)         1512 (▲6)
12       Ottawa Senators (▲8)          1511 (▲22)
13 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲2)       1505 (▲5)
13 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲4)          1505 (▲6)
15 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲4)           1497 (▲6)
15 (tie) New York Islanders (▼6)       1497 (▼15)
17       Buffalo Sabres (▲7)           1492 (▲14)
18       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼4)      1491 (▼13)
19 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲3)      1489 (▲3)
19 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼4)            1489 (▼11)
21       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼11)     1488 (▼23)
22       Anaheim Ducks (▲2)            1487 (▲9)
23       Boston Bruins (▼2)            1478 (▼10)
24       New Jersey Devils (▲2)        1477 (▲4)
25       Utah Mammoth (▼2)             1476 (▼8)
26       New York Rangers (▼8)         1471 (▼25)
27       Vancouver Canucks (▲2)        1469 (▲19)
28       Nashville Predators (▲3)      1463 (▲17)
29       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼2)    1454 (▼13)
30       Chicago Blackhawks (▼2)       1448 (▼18)
31       Seattle Kraken (▼1)           1446 (▼3)
32       San Jose Sharks               1431 (▼6)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           41% (▲9)
 2       Washington Capitals           26% (▼4)
 3       New York Islanders            10% (▼5)
 4       Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      9% (▲3)
 5       New Jersey Devils (▲2)        6% (▲3)
 6       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼2)      5% (▼4)
 7       New York Rangers (▼1)         2% (▼2)
 8       Columbus Blue Jackets         1%

Atlantic Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           26% (▼13)
 2       Detroit Red Wings             20% (▲6)
 3       Montreal Canadiens            15% (▲2)
 4 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲1)         13% (▲4)
 4 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲3)          13% (▲9)
 6       Buffalo Sabres (▲2)           6% (▲3)
 7       Boston Bruins (▼3)            5% (▼5)
 8       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼2)      2% (▼4)

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            80% (▼1)
 2       Dallas Stars                  18% (▲3)
 3       Minnesota Wild                2% (▼1)
 4 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%
 4 (tie) Nashville Predators           <1%
 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues               <1%
 4 (tie) Utah Mammoth                  <1%
 4 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          37% (▼17)
 2       Los Angeles Kings             21%
 3       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          20% (▲11)
 4       Anaheim Ducks (▼1)            16% (▲5)
 5 (tie) Calgary Flames                2% (▲1)
 5 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲3)        2% (▲2)
 7 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼2)          1%
 7 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▼2)           1%

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           87% (▲3)
 2       Washington Capitals (▼1)      79% (▼5)
 3       New York Islanders            56% (▼13)
 4       Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      53% (▲6)
 5       New Jersey Devils (▲2)        43% (▲10)
 6       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼2)      38% (▼18)
 7       New York Rangers (▼1)         26% (▼14)
 8       Columbus Blue Jackets         12% (▼5)

Atlantic Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           73% (▼8)
 2       Detroit Red Wings             68% (▲11)
 3       Montreal Canadiens            59% (▲5)
 4 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲1)         55% (▲11)
 4 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲3)          55% (▲25)
 6       Buffalo Sabres (▲2)           37% (▲15)
 7       Boston Bruins (▼3)            36% (▼12)
 8       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼2)      22% (▼15)

Central Division

 1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche            >99%
 1 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲1)             >99% (▲2)
 3       Minnesota Wild                93% (▲7)
 4       Utah Mammoth (▲1)             32% (▼6)
 5       St. Louis Blues (▲1)          30% (▲2)
 6       Winnipeg Jets (▼2)            25% (▼14)
 7       Nashville Predators (▲1)      20% (▲8)
 8       Chicago Blackhawks (▼1)       11% (▼14)

Pacific Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          86% (▼7)
 2       Edmonton Oilers (▲2)          75% (▲15)
 3       Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        74% (▼5)
 4       Anaheim Ducks (▼1)            70% (▲6)
 5       Calgary Flames (▲1)           27% (▲3)
 6       Vancouver Canucks (▲2)        22% (▲12)
 7       San Jose Sharks (▼2)          18% (▼7)
 8       Seattle Kraken (▼1)           16% (▼5)

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Colorado Avalanche            78% (▲8)
 2       Dallas Stars                  17% (▲6)
 3 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      1% (▼2)
 3 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲3)           1% (▼1)
 3 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          1% (▼4)
 3 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲1)      1% (▼2)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            21% (▲3)
 2       Dallas Stars                  11% (▲2)
 3       Washington Capitals (▲1)      6% (▼1)
 4 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲2)      5%
 4 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      5% (▼1)
 4 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼1)     5% (▼3)
 7 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲2)        4% (▲1)
 7 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲2)          4% (▲1)
 7 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             4%
 7 (tie) Minnesota Wild                4%
11 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲3)         3% (▲1)
11 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▼2)       3%
11 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲3)          3% (▲1)
14 (tie) Anaheim Ducks                 2%
14 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲8)           2% (▲1)
14 (tie) New York Islanders (▼5)       2% (▼1)
14 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           2%
14 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼5)      2% (▼1)
19 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼5)            1% (▼1)
19 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲3)           1%
19 (tie) New York Rangers (▼5)         1% (▼1)
19 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲12)     1% (▲1)
19 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲3)        1%
19 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲3)          1%
19 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼5)      1% (▼1)
19 (tie) Utah Mammoth (▲3)             1%
19 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲12)       1% (▲1)
19 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼5)            1% (▼1)
29 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▼7)       <1% (▼1)
29 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼7)    <1% (▼1)
29 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼7)          <1% (▼1)
29 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▼7)           <1% (▼1)

 

The calendar flips to mid-December, and the NHL has gone from a pleasant skate to a full-blown BATTLE ROYALE! We saw two blockbuster trades this week, but it’s the on-ice carnage that’s rewriting the power rankings. Teams are collapsing under the pressure, while others are making their move. If you’re not climbing, you’re dying!

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🏆 THE ELITE FIVE: THE UNYIELDING KINGS

These are the teams who understand that the price of greatness is eternal vigilance. They crush.

1. Colorado (1st, 1619) The top seed is locked in, rating up another 5 points. Their Playoff Odds are still >99% and Cup Odds jumped 2% to 18%. Yes, Nashville snagged a shootout point, but the Avs finished the week by stomping the Preds in regulation. This team is a machine, built for spring and beyond. Their Central Division crown is virtually guaranteed with an 81% chance.

2. Dallas (2nd, 1571) Uh oh. The Stars hit turbulence, dropping 11 rating points after getting shut out by a surging Florida team. The Cup Odds dipped -1% to 9%. Their 98% playoff probability is safe for now, but they cannot afford to slide as the Wild (7th) suddenly go supernova. They are losing their grip on the Central, where their Division Win chance has plummeted -11% to 15%. Wake up, Dallas!

3. Vegas (3rd, +1, 1558) The Golden Knights are back in the top tier! A +1 rank jump and +6 rating points prove the dynasty has fire left in the tank. They took down the Flyers in OT and handled the Blue Jackets. Their Playoff Odds jumped 5% to 93%, and their Cup Odds are up 1% to 8%. They now dominate the Pacific race with a 54% probability.

4. Washington (4th, -1, 1557) A terrible week. Dropped 10 rating points and saw their Playoff Odds take a painful -5% hit, now sitting at 84%. A shootout loss to Carolina and a brutal 5-1 loss to Winnipeg is not the performance of a contender. The Hurricanes (8th) are now breathing down their necks in the Metropolitan. The window is closing; the Caps need to find their killer instinct fast.

5. Tampa Bay (5th, +1, 1546) The Lightning are back! An explosive +15 rating surge and a huge +9% jump in Playoff Odds to 81%. A massive 8-4 demolition of New Jersey was the highlight. Despite losing a shootout to the Islanders, they solidified their status as an Atlantic power. Their Cup Odds are now 6%. Never, ever count out the Bolts.

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🚀 BIGGEST RISERS: LIFT OFF!

MINNESOTA WILD (7th, +5, 1527): MONSTER MOVES! The Wild are the story of the week, vaulting 5 spots with a +20 rating surge and a +17% spike in Playoff Odds to 86%! A HUGE trade for Quinn Hughes and wins against Seattle and a crushing 5-2 victory over division rival Dallas signals they are all-in. They are now officially a Wild Card lock and a major threat in the West.

FLORIDA PANTHERS (13th, +6, 1506): The Panthers woke up, jumping 6 spots! They crushed Dallas with a 4-0 shutout and beat Utah. A +13 rating increase and an +8% Playoff Odds jump to 44% puts them firmly in the Atlantic playoff conversation. Watch out, Toronto!

BUFFALO SABRES (24th, +5, 1478): A huge surge for the Sabres, who gained +18 rating points and saw their Playoff Odds soar by +10% to 22%! They beat Edmonton in OT and took down Vancouver and Seattle. If they can keep this pace, they might surprise some teams in the East.

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📉 BIGGEST FALLERS: THE FREE FALL

COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS (27th, -5, 1467): They are absolutely TOAST! A league-worst -21 rating crash and a horrific -20% collapse in Playoff Odds, now at just 17%. Getting crushed 6-3 by Ottawa is the final nail. They have a 1% chance to win the Metro. Get ready for the draft lottery.

TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS (14th, -5, 1504): Panic is setting in. The Leafs dropped 5 spots with a -12 rating plunge and saw their Playoff Odds drop -15% to 37%. An OT loss to San Jose and a 6-3 regulation loss to Edmonton is an embarrassment. Their Division Win chance is only 6%. This team is officially on the hot seat.

PITTSBURGH PENGUINS (10th, -3, 1511): Another veteran team in crisis. The Pens lost 3 spots, -14 rating points, and saw their Playoff Odds drop -14% to 56%. Blown leads and multiple overtime losses, including a shocking 6-5 OT loss to San Jose, are bleeding points. Their Division Win Odds are now only 9%.

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💥 DIVISION DOGFIGHTS: BLOOD IN THE WATER

Central Division (The Avalanche Abyss)

• The Colorado Avalanche (1st) maintain total control with a Division Win Odds of 81%, gaining 9% over the previous week. While Dallas stumbles, the Avs’ grasp on the title tightens.

• The Dallas Stars (2nd) saw their chances suffer a major setback, dropping a painful -11% in Win Odds to 15%. A tough week means they are falling out of contention for the top seed.

• The Minnesota Wild (7th, +5), following their massive rise, are starting to appear on the radar. Their Win Odds climbed 2% to a small, but meaningful, 3%. The Wild are making the Central a three-team race for the playoffs, even if the title is out of reach.

Metropolitan Division (The Carolina Surge)

• The Carolina Hurricanes (8th) are the new divisional favorite! Their Win Odds skyrocketed by +15% (from 17% to 32%), thanks to two shootout wins against Washington and Philadelphia. They are the hottest team in the Metro.

• The Washington Capitals (4th, -1) saw their Win Odds tumble -10% to 30%. They are now clinging to the top spot by a thread.

• The NY Islanders (9th, +4) are a sneaky threat! Their Win Odds increased +7% to 15% after taking down Tampa Bay and Anaheim.

Atlantic Division (The Tampa Trap)

• The Tampa Bay Lightning (5th, +1) seized the lead, with their Win Odds jumping +9% to 39%. Their offensive firepower is unmatched in the division.

• The Detroit Red Wings (11th, +4) remain a threat at 14%, but the Montreal Canadiens (15th, +5) are right behind them at 13%. This is a three-way battle for the Atlantic crown.

• The Toronto Maple Leafs (14th, -5) are in free-fall, losing -8% in Win Odds, dropping them to a dismal 6%. They are a Wild Card team at best right now.

Pacific Division (Vegas’s Reign)

• The Vegas Golden Knights (3rd, +1) are running away with it. Their Win Odds soared +12% to a dominant 54%.

• The Los Angeles Kings (6th, -1) dropped -5% in Win Odds to 21%.

• The Anaheim Ducks (24th, -3) are fading, dropping -6% to 11%.

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Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

The top 5

1. Colorado Avalanche (1619, ▲5)

Record: 23-2-7, 1st in Central Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 70% (▲10)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 18% (▲2)

Last week: 2-0-1

• December 9: Lost in SO 4-3 @ Nashville Predators (31st, 1446)
• December 11: Won 6-2 vs. Florida Panthers (13th, 1506)
• December 13: Won 4-2 vs. Nashville Predators (31st, 1446)

Next week:

• December 16: @ Seattle Kraken (30th, 1449)
• December 19: vs. Winnipeg Jets (15th, 1500)
• December 21: @ Minnesota Wild (7th, 1527)

2. Dallas Stars (1571, ▼11)

Record: 21-7-5, 2nd in Central Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 98%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 11% (▼9)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▼1)

Last week: 1-2-0

• December 9: Won 4-3 @ Winnipeg Jets (15th, 1500)
• December 11: Lost 5-2 @ Minnesota Wild (7th, 1527)
• December 13: Lost 4-0 vs. Florida Panthers (13th, 1506)

Next week:

• December 15: vs. Los Angeles Kings (6th, 1529)
• December 18: @ San Jose Sharks (32nd, 1437)
• December 19: @ Anaheim Ducks (24th, 1478)
• December 21: vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (14th, 1504)

3. Vegas Golden Knights ▲1 (1558, ▲6)

Record: 16-6-9, 1st in Pacific Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 93% (▲5)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 5% (▲2)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲1)

Last week: 2-0-1

• December 9: Lost in SO 5-4 @ New York Islanders (9th, 1512)
• December 11: Won in OT 3-2 @ Philadelphia Flyers (22nd, 1486)
• December 13: Won 3-2 @ Columbus Blue Jackets (27th, 1467)

Next week:

• December 17: vs. New Jersey Devils (26th, 1473)
• December 20: @ Calgary Flames (19th, 1491)
• December 21: @ Edmonton Oilers (12th, 1507)

4. Washington Capitals ▼1 (1557, ▼10)

Record: 18-10-4, 3rd in Metropolitan Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 84% (▼5)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 3% (▼3)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▼2)

Last week: 0-1-1

• December 11: Lost in SO 3-2 vs. Carolina Hurricanes (8th, 1524)
• December 13: Lost 5-1 @ Winnipeg Jets (15th, 1500)

Next week:

• December 16: @ Minnesota Wild (7th, 1527)
• December 18: vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (14th, 1504)
• December 20: vs. Detroit Red Wings (11th, 1510)
• December 21: @ Detroit Red Wings (11th, 1510)

5. Tampa Bay Lightning (1546, ▲8)

Record: 18-11-3, 1st in Atlantic Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 81% (▲3)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 2%
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▲1)

Last week: 2-1-1

• December 8: Lost 2-0 @ Toronto Maple Leafs (14th, 1504)
• December 9: Won 6-1 @ Montreal Canadiens (15th, 1500)
• December 11: Won 8-4 @ New Jersey Devils (26th, 1473)
• December 13: Lost in SO 3-2 @ New York Islanders (9th, 1512)

Next week:

• December 15: vs. Florida Panthers (13th, 1506)
• December 18: vs. Los Angeles Kings (6th, 1529)
• December 20: vs. Carolina Hurricanes (8th, 1524)

Overall Ratings

 1       Colorado Avalanche            1619 (▲5)
 2       Dallas Stars                  1571 (▼11)
 3       Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     1558 (▲6)
 4       Washington Capitals (▼1)      1557 (▼10)
 5       Tampa Bay Lightning           1546 (▲8)
 6       Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        1529 (▲5)
 7       Minnesota Wild (▲8)           1527 (▲28)
 8       Carolina Hurricanes           1524 (▲6)
 9       New York Islanders (▲3)       1512 (▲6)
10       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼4)      1511 (▼14)
11       Detroit Red Wings (▲6)        1510 (▲17)
12       Edmonton Oilers (▲2)          1507 (▲7)
13       Florida Panthers (▲4)         1506 (▲13)
14       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼4)      1504 (▼5)
15 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲6)       1500 (▲10)
15 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼4)            1500 (▼8)
17       St. Louis Blues (▼8)          1499 (▼11)
18       New York Rangers (▼5)         1496 (▼8)
19       Calgary Flames (▲1)           1491
20       Ottawa Senators (▼4)          1489 (▼7)
21       Boston Bruins (▲4)            1488 (▲12)
22       Philadelphia Flyers (▲2)      1486 (▲9)
23       Utah Mammoth (▼6)             1484 (▼9)
24 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼2)            1478 (▼11)
24 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲5)           1478 (▲12)
26       New Jersey Devils             1473
27       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼4)    1467 (▼21)
28       Chicago Blackhawks (▼2)       1466 (▼7)
29       Vancouver Canucks (▲1)        1450 (▼6)
30       Seattle Kraken (▼2)           1449 (▼21)
31       Nashville Predators           1446 (▲8)
32       San Jose Sharks (▼1)          1437 (▼1)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      32% (▲15)
 2       Washington Capitals (▼1)      30% (▼10)
 3       New York Islanders (▲1)       15% (▲7)
 4       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼2)      9% (▼8)
 5       Philadelphia Flyers           6% (▲1)
 6       New York Rangers (▼1)         4% (▼1)
 7       New Jersey Devils (▲1)        3%
 8       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1)    1% (▼3)

Atlantic Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           39%
 2       Detroit Red Wings (▲2)        14% (▲4)
 3       Montreal Canadiens (▼1)       13%
 4       Boston Bruins (▲2)            10% (▲2)
 5       Florida Panthers (▲2)         9% (▲2)
 6       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼3)      6% (▼5)
 7       Ottawa Senators (▼2)          4% (▼5)
 8       Buffalo Sabres                3% (▲1)

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            81% (▲10)
 2       Dallas Stars                  15% (▼11)
 3       Minnesota Wild                3% (▲2)
 4 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1%
 4 (tie) Nashville Predators           <1%
 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues               <1%
 4 (tie) Utah Mammoth                  <1%
 4 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 <1%

Pacific Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          54% (▲10)
 2       Los Angeles Kings             21%
 3       Anaheim Ducks                 11% (▼7)
 4       Edmonton Oilers               9%
 5 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲1)           1% (▼1)
 5 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1)          1% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Seattle Kraken                1% (▼4)
 8       Vancouver Canucks             <1% (▼1)

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      84% (▲13)
 1 (tie) Washington Capitals           84% (▼5)
 3       New York Islanders (▲1)       69% (▲13)
 4       Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1)      56% (▼14)
 5       Philadelphia Flyers (▲1)      47% (▲6)
 6       New York Rangers (▼1)         40% (▼6)
 7       New Jersey Devils (▲1)        33% (▼2)
 8       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1)    17% (▼20)

Atlantic Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           81% (▲3)
 2       Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        57% (▲12)
 3       Montreal Canadiens (▼1)       54% (▲4)
 4       Boston Bruins (▲1)            48% (▲7)
 5       Florida Panthers (▲2)         44% (▲7)
 6       Toronto Maple Leafs (▼3)      37% (▼8)
 7       Ottawa Senators (▼2)          30% (▼11)
 8       Buffalo Sabres                22% (▲6)

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            >99%
 2       Dallas Stars                  98%
 3       Minnesota Wild                86% (▲25)
 4       Winnipeg Jets                 39% (▼7)
 5       Utah Mammoth                  38% (▼4)
 6       St. Louis Blues               28% (▼9)
 7       Chicago Blackhawks            25% (▼6)
 8       Nashville Predators           12% (▲4)

Pacific Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          93% (▲5)
 2       Los Angeles Kings             79% (▲6)
 3       Anaheim Ducks                 64% (▼6)
 4       Edmonton Oilers               60% (▲8)
 5       San Jose Sharks (▲1)          25% (▲4)
 6       Calgary Flames                24% (▲3)
 7       Seattle Kraken (▼2)           21% (▼16)
 8       Vancouver Canucks             10% (▼4)

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Colorado Avalanche            70% (▲10)
 2       Dallas Stars                  11% (▼9)
 3       Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     5% (▲2)
 4 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲1)      3% (▲1)
 4 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼1)      3% (▼3)
 6 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲2)           2% (▲1)
 6 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1)      2%
 8 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             1%
 8 (tie) New York Islanders (▲3)       1% (▲1)
 8 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼3)      1% (▼1)

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            18% (▲2)
 2       Dallas Stars                  9% (▼1)
 3       Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     8% (▲1)
 4       Washington Capitals (▼1)      7% (▼2)
 5       Tampa Bay Lightning           6% (▲1)
 6       Carolina Hurricanes           5% (▲1)
 7 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        4%
 7 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲4)           4% (▲2)
 9 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲2)        3% (▲1)
 9 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲2)          3% (▲1)
 9 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲2)       3% (▲1)
 9 (tie) New York Islanders            3%
 9 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼3)      3% (▼1)
14 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼3)            2%
14 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼3)            2%
14 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼3)         2%
14 (tie) New York Rangers (▼3)         2%
14 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▼3)          2%
14 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼3)      2%
14 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼5)      2% (▼1)
14 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼3)            2%
22 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲3)           1%
22 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲3)           1%
22 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲3)       1%
22 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼11)    1% (▼1)
22 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲3)        1%
22 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲9)          1% (▲1)
22 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲3)           1%
22 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼11)         1% (▼1)
22 (tie) Utah Mammoth (▼11)            1% (▼1)
31 (tie) Nashville Predators           <1%
31 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼6)        <1% (▼1)

 

🚨 Power Surge! The NHL Hits Cruising Altitude in December 🚨

We’ve officially hit the one-third mark of the regular season, and the battle for supremacy on the ice is heating up! The McDonald NHL Power Ratings still feature the same five titans at the top, but the week’s action has brought shake-ups, spectacular rises, and a truly dizzying plunge!

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The Unshakeable Elite

The Colorado Avalanche (1st, 1614) remain the undisputed kings of the league, holding steady at the top after a solid 3-1-0 week. Their only blemish? A stunning 6-3 regulation loss to the surging New York Islanders, marking just their second regulation defeat of the year—a rare, humbling stumble. But the Avs quickly righted the ship, taking down Vancouver and Philadelphia, and grabbing an overtime victory against the Rangers. Their path to the President’s Trophy looks clear, with their probability climbing to a dominant 60%!

Charging hard behind them are the Dallas Stars (2nd, 1582, ▲8), who had a fantastic 3-0-1 showing, snatching a cool 8 rating points. After an opening overtime defeat to the Rangers, the Stars locked it down, posting two regulation wins (including a shutout against New Jersey!) and sealing the week with a clutch shootout win over the now-red-hot Penguins. Their Stanley Cup probability is now in double digits at 10%, making them a clear Western Conference force.

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Metropolitan Mayhem: The Capital Gains

The Washington Capitals (3rd, ▲1, 1567) are making a serious push, climbing one spot after banking an impressive 18 rating points with a 3-0-1 week. The Caps were all business in regulation against top-ten Los Angeles and struggling San Jose and Columbus. Their one hiccup—a shootout loss to the gritty Anaheim Ducks—is a minor note in an otherwise brilliant run that has catapulted their playoff odds to 89%! They are becoming legitimate contenders, with their Cup chances rising by 3 percentage points to 9%.

The Vegas Golden Knights (4th, ▲1, 1552) also moved up, sweeping their three-game week! They dominated New Jersey with a shutout, squeaked by Chicago in a shootout, and bested the Rangers in overtime. The Golden Knights are trending up, with a playoff chance of 88% and a Cup probability of 7%.

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The Freefall and the Frenzy

The biggest story of the week is the Tampa Bay Lightning (5th, 1538, ▼2), who suffered a catastrophic 0-3-0 week, hemorrhaging a massive 26 rating points and sliding out of the top three. Swept by the Islanders and falling to the Penguins, the Bolts’ outlook is suddenly grim, with their chances across the board taking a huge hit—their playoff probability is down 13% to 78%, and their Cup hopes are down 3% to a nervous 5%.

But while Tampa Bay struggled, others thrived! The Pittsburgh Penguins (6th, ▲4, 1525) and the New York Islanders (12th, ▲8, 1506) were the week’s top performers, each grabbing 19 rating points!

• The Islanders are on a tear, not only handing the Avs a rare regulation loss but also humbling Tampa Bay twice, resulting in a dramatic eight-spot leap into the top half of the league!

• The Penguins have also surged, moving from 10th to 6th after a 2-0-1 week that saw them take down the Flyers and the faltering Lightning.

On the flip side, the New Jersey Devils (26th, ▼12, 1473) had an absolute nightmare, losing all four games in regulation and shedding an eye-watering 30 rating points! They crashed 12 spots in the rankings, and their playoff chances have plummeted by 33% to a meager 35%! The alarm bells are ringing LOUDLY in Newark!

The stage is set for an electrifying week ahead as the league’s heavyweights continue their slugfest!

Here’s the rankings and ratings.  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

The top 5

1. Colorado Avalanche (1614)

Record: 21-2-6, 1st in Central Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: >99%
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 60% (▲4)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 16%

Last week: 3-1-0

• December 2: Won 3-1 vs. Vancouver Canucks (30th, 1456)
• December 4: Lost 6-3 @ New York Islanders (12th, 1506)
• December 6: Won in OT 3-2 @ New York Rangers (13th, 1504)
• December 7: Won 3-2 @ Philadelphia Flyers (24th, 1477)

Next week:

• December 9: @ Nashville Predators (31st, 1438)
• December 11: vs. Florida Panthers (17th, 1493)
• December 13: vs. Nashville Predators (31st, 1438)

2. Dallas Stars (1582, ▲8)

Record: 20-5-5, 2nd in Central Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 98% (▲2)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 20% (▲5)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▲1)

Last week: 3-0-1

• December 2: Lost in OT 3-2 @ New York Rangers (13th, 1504)
• December 3: Won 3-0 @ New Jersey Devils (26th, 1473)
• December 5: Won 4-1 vs. San Jose Sharks (31st, 1438)
• December 7: Won in SO 3-2 vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (6th, 1525)

Next week:

• December 9: @ Winnipeg Jets (11th, 1508)
• December 11: @ Minnesota Wild (15th, 1499)
• December 13: vs. Florida Panthers (17th, 1493)

3. Washington Capitals ▲1 (1567, ▲18)

Record: 18-9-3, 1st in Metropolitan Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 89% (▲11)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 6% (▲3)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲3)

Last week: 3-0-1

• December 2: Won 3-1 @ Los Angeles Kings (7th, 1524)
• December 3: Won 7-1 @ San Jose Sharks (31st, 1438)
• December 5: Lost in SO 4-3 @ Anaheim Ducks (22nd, 1489)
• December 7: Won 2-0 vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (23rd, 1488)

Next week:

• December 11: vs. Carolina Hurricanes (8th, 1518)
• December 13: @ Winnipeg Jets (11th, 1508)

4. Vegas Golden Knights ▲1 (1552, ▲5)

Record: 14-6-8, 2nd in Pacific Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 88% (▲8)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 3% (▲1)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲1)

Last week: 3-0-0

• December 2: Won in SO 4-3 vs. Chicago Blackhawks (26th, 1473)
• December 5: Won 3-0 @ New Jersey Devils (26th, 1473)
• December 7: Won in OT 3-2 @ New York Rangers (13th, 1504)

Next week:

• December 9: @ New York Islanders (12th, 1506)
• December 11: @ Philadelphia Flyers (24th, 1477)
• December 13: @ Columbus Blue Jackets (23rd, 1488)

5. Tampa Bay Lightning ▼2 (1538, ▼26)

Record: 16-10-2, 1st in Atlantic Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 78% (▼13)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 2% (▼6)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 5% (▼3)

Last week: 0-3-0

• December 2: Lost 2-1 @ New York Islanders (12th, 1506)
• December 4: Lost 4-3 vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (6th, 1525)
• December 6: Lost 2-0 vs. New York Islanders (12th, 1506)

Next week:

• December 8: @ Toronto Maple Leafs (10th, 1509)
• December 9: @ Montreal Canadiens (21st, 1490)
• December 11: @ New Jersey Devils (26th, 1473)
• December 13: @ New York Islanders (12th, 1506)

Overall Ratings

 1       Colorado Avalanche            1614
 2       Dallas Stars                  1582 (▲8)
 3       Washington Capitals (▲1)      1567 (▲18)
 4       Vegas Golden Knights (▲1)     1552 (▲5)
 5       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼2)      1538 (▼26)
 6       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲4)      1525 (▲19)
 7       Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        1524 (▼11)
 8       Carolina Hurricanes (▼1)      1518 (▼14)
 9       St. Louis Blues               1510 (▲1)
10       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲8)      1509 (▲17)
11       Winnipeg Jets (▼3)            1508 (▼8)
12       New York Islanders (▲8)       1506 (▲19)
13       New York Rangers (▲4)         1504 (▲11)
14       Edmonton Oilers (▲2)          1500 (▲6)
15       Minnesota Wild (▼5)           1499 (▼7)
16       Ottawa Senators (▼6)          1496 (▼10)
17 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲9)        1493 (▲15)
17 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼2)         1493 (▼5)
17 (tie) Utah Mammoth (▲2)             1493 (▲2)
20       Calgary Flames (▲2)           1491 (▲7)
21       Montreal Canadiens (▼11)      1490 (▼16)
22       Anaheim Ducks (▲3)            1489 (▲8)
23       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1)    1488 (▲4)
24       Philadelphia Flyers (▼2)      1477 (▼7)
25       Boston Bruins (▲4)            1476 (▲9)
26 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1)       1473 (▼2)
26 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼12)       1473 (▼30)
28       Seattle Kraken (▼7)           1470 (▼15)
29       Buffalo Sabres (▼1)           1466 (▼5)
30       Vancouver Canucks             1456 (▼3)
31 (tie) Nashville Predators           1438 (▲5)
31 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1)          1438 (▲8)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Washington Capitals (▲1)      40% (▲16)
 2 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▼1)      17% (▼13)
 2 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2)      17% (▲7)
 4       New York Islanders (▲2)       8% (▲4)
 5 (tie) New York Rangers (▲3)         5% (▲2)
 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers           5% (▼4)
 7       Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1)    4%
 8       New Jersey Devils (▼5)        3% (▼13)

Atlantic Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           39% (▼19)
 2       Montreal Canadiens            13% (▼1)
 3       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲2)      11% (▲7)
 4       Detroit Red Wings (▲1)        10% (▲6)
 5       Ottawa Senators (▼2)          9%
 6       Boston Bruins (▼1)            8% (▲4)
 7       Florida Panthers (▼3)         7% (▲2)
 8       Buffalo Sabres                2%

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            71% (▼2)
 2       Dallas Stars                  26% (▲4)
 3       Minnesota Wild                1% (▼1)
 4 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲2)       <1%
 4 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲2)      <1%
 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲2)          <1%
 4 (tie) Utah Mammoth                  <1% (▼1)
 4 (tie) Winnipeg Jets                 <1% (▼1)

Pacific Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          44% (▲12)
 2       Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        21% (▼11)
 3       Anaheim Ducks                 18% (▲5)
 4       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          9% (▲1)
 5       Seattle Kraken (▼1)           5% (▼5)
 6 (tie) Calgary Flames                2%
 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1)          2% (▲1)
 8       Vancouver Canucks (▼1)        1%

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1       Washington Capitals (▲1)      89% (▲11)
 2       Carolina Hurricanes (▼1)      71% (▼10)
 3       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      70% (▲15)
 4       New York Islanders (▲2)       56% (▲17)
 5       New York Rangers (▲2)         46% (▲12)
 6       Philadelphia Flyers (▼1)      41% (▼10)
 7       Columbus Blue Jackets         37% (▲3)
 8       New Jersey Devils (▼5)        35% (▼33)

Atlantic Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           78% (▼13)
 2       Montreal Canadiens            50% (▼10)
 3 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲3)        45% (▲13)
 3 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲4)      45% (▲14)
 5 (tie) Boston Bruins                 41% (▲7)
 5 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▼2)          41% (▼10)
 7       Florida Panthers (▼3)         37% (▼2)
 8       Buffalo Sabres                16% (▼5)

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            >99%
 2       Dallas Stars                  98% (▲2)
 3       Minnesota Wild                61% (▼5)
 4       Winnipeg Jets                 46% (▼8)
 5       Utah Mammoth                  42% (▲1)
 6       St. Louis Blues               37% (▲1)
 7       Chicago Blackhawks            31% (▼3)
 8       Nashville Predators           8% (▲2)

Pacific Division

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          88% (▲8)
 2       Los Angeles Kings (▼1)        73% (▼7)
 3       Anaheim Ducks                 70% (▲11)
 4       Edmonton Oilers (▲1)          52% (▲6)
 5       Seattle Kraken (▼1)           37% (▼13)
 6 (tie) Calgary Flames                21% (▲3)
 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks               21% (▲3)
 8       Vancouver Canucks             14% (▼3)

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Colorado Avalanche            60% (▲4)
 2       Dallas Stars                  20% (▲5)
 3       Washington Capitals (▲2)      6% (▲3)
 4       Vegas Golden Knights (▲2)     3% (▲1)
 5 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▼1)      2% (▼2)
 5 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲4)      2% (▲1)
 5 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼2)      2% (▼6)
 8 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1)            1%
 8 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼2)        1% (▼1)
 8 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲1)           1%

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            16%
 2       Dallas Stars                  10% (▲1)
 3       Washington Capitals (▲1)      9% (▲3)
 4       Vegas Golden Knights          7% (▲1)
 5       Tampa Bay Lightning (▼2)      5% (▼3)
 6 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes           4% (▼1)
 6 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             4% (▼1)
 6 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2)      4% (▲1)
 9 (tie) New York Islanders (▲5)       3% (▲1)
 9 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲5)      3% (▲1)
11 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲3)            2%
11 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲13)           2% (▲1)
11 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲13)    2% (▲1)
11 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲13)       2% (▲1)
11 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲3)          2%
11 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲3)         2%
11 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼3)           2% (▼1)
11 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▼3)       2% (▼1)
11 (tie) New York Rangers (▲3)         2%
11 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▼3)          2% (▼1)
11 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲3)      2%
11 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲3)          2%
11 (tie) Utah Mammoth (▲3)             2%
11 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼3)            2% (▼1)
25 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▼1)           1%
25 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼1)           1%
25 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▼1)       1%
25 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼17)       1% (▼2)
25 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▼11)          1% (▼1)
25 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼1)        1%
31 (tie) Nashville Predators           <1%
31 (tie) San Jose Sharks               <1%

 

Hey Shane, what’s this???

Welcome to this season’s first McDonald NHL Power Ratings report.  I plan on putting out a report every Monday morning, but we’ll see how it goes.  I’ve automated some of the report generation this season, so that speeds it up a bit, and it helps me to keep track of what’s going on around the league.  I’ve been out of the country for the first bit of the season, so I haven’t generated a report yet, and I’ll be heading out again in January, but I’ll take the laptop along and try to keep it updated.

Anyways, how’s this work?  I use a simple ELO Rating system; for those of you interested, I use a K-factor of 15, and I assign ratings for the teams at the start of the season based on their regular season performance the previous season, then update the ratings after every game.  Using these ratings, I’m able to calculate an expected win probability for a game between two teams, giving the home team an advantage of 40 rating points.  Then, I simulate the rest of the schedule using these probabilities, repeat 100,000 times, and keep track of various results.  Based on these 100,000 simulated seasons, I calculate the chances of each team making the playoffs, winning their division, winning the President’s Trophy (top team in the league), and winning their playoff series, finishing with the Stanley Cup final.

My ELO ratings are based on an average rating of 1500; any team with a rating above 1500 is above average, and teams below 1500 are below average.  When I calculate new ratings based on games, I count overtime and shootout results as ties, as the results of these games seem pretty much a coin flip.  I also expect about 15% of games to end in overtime, and an additional 7.5% of games to end in shootouts.  Historically, these numbers have been pretty accurate.

So much for the explanations.  How’s things looking this week?

Well, the top-ranked team in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings is Colorado.  They have had an absolutely amazing start to the season, only having lost one game in regulation time.  They are currently sitting first in the Central Division, and I’ve given them a rating of 1614, up 7 points from last week, based on their 2-0-1 record this past week.  In my simulations, they make the playoffs over 99% of the time, and they finish the season with the top record a whopping 56% of the time!  Based on their season so far, I figure they’ve got the best chance of winning the Stanley Cup, having won it 16% of the time in my simulations.

Ranked number 2 this week is Dallas, moving up one ranking spot from last week.  They went 4-0-0 this past week, garnering them an additional 25 rating points!  They’re sitting 2nd in the Central Division, and I’m giving them a 96% chance of making the playoffs (up 12% from last week), and a 9% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.

Tampa Bay also had a great 4-0-0 week, and that resulted in them picking up another 24 rating points, moving them up into 3rd in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings.  They’ve got an 8% chance of winning the Cup.

4th in the rankings is another 4-0-0 team, the Washington Capitals.  They picked up 25 rating points, moving up from 7th in our rankings last week to 4th, despite currently only being in 3rd place in the Metropolitan Division.

Rounding out the top 5 is Vegas, who had a pretty bad week, going 1-2-1, with their only win coming against bottom-ranked San Jose.  This dropped them from 2nd in last week’s rankings, and they are currently sitting 3rd in the Pacific Division.

The three big upward-movers this week were Dallas, Tampa Bay, and Washington.  On the flip side, the worst performing team was Detroit.  They lost all 4 of their games last week, one of those in a shootout, and as a result, lost 23 rating points and dropped down 11 spots in the rankings to 26th.

Anyways, here’s the rankings and ratings — enjoy!  Changes shown are from last week’s report.

The top 5

1. Colorado Avalanche (1614, ▲7)

Record: 18-1-6, 1st in Central Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: >99% (▲1)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 56% (▲2)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 16% (▲1)

Last week: 2-0-1

• November 26: Won 6-0 vs. San Jose Sharks (32nd, 1430)
• November 28: Lost in SO 3-2 @ Minnesota Wild (10th, 1506)
• November 29: Won 7-2 vs. Montreal Canadiens (10th, 1506)

Next week:

• December 2: vs. Vancouver Canucks (30th, 1459)
• December 4: @ New York Islanders (20th, 1487)
• December 6: @ New York Rangers (17th, 1493)
• December 7: @ Philadelphia Flyers (22nd, 1484)

2. Dallas Stars ▲1 (1574, ▲25)

Record: 17-5-4, 2nd in Central Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 96% (▲12)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 15% (▲8)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲3)

Last week: 4-0-0

• November 25: Won 8-3 @ Edmonton Oilers (16th, 1494)
• November 26: Won 3-2 @ Seattle Kraken (21st, 1485)
• November 28: Won 4-3 vs. Utah Mammoth (19th, 1491)
• November 30: Won 6-1 vs. Ottawa Senators (10th, 1506)

Next week:

• December 2: @ New York Rangers (17th, 1493)
• December 3: @ New Jersey Devils (14th, 1503)
• December 5: vs. San Jose Sharks (32nd, 1430)
• December 7: vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (10th, 1506)

3. Tampa Bay Lightning ▲1 (1564, ▲24)

Record: 16-7-2, 1st in Atlantic Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 91% (▲15)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 8% (▲4)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲2)

Last week: 4-0-0

• November 24: Won 3-0 vs. Philadelphia Flyers (22nd, 1484)
• November 26: Won 5-1 vs. Calgary Flames (22nd, 1484)
• November 28: Won 6-3 @ Detroit Red Wings (26th, 1478)
• November 29: Won 4-1 @ New York Rangers (17th, 1493)

Next week:

• December 2: @ New York Islanders (20th, 1487)
• December 4: vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (10th, 1506)
• December 6: vs. New York Islanders (20th, 1487)

4. Washington Capitals ▲3 (1549, ▲25)

Record: 15-9-2, 3rd in Metropolitan Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 78% (▲22)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 3% (▲2)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▲2)

Last week: 4-0-0

• November 24: Won 5-1 vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (22nd, 1484)
• November 26: Won 4-3 vs. Winnipeg Jets (8th, 1516)
• November 28: Won 4-2 vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (18th, 1492)
• November 30: Won 4-1 @ New York Islanders (20th, 1487)

Next week:

• December 2: @ Los Angeles Kings (6th, 1535)
• December 3: @ San Jose Sharks (32nd, 1430)
• December 5: @ Anaheim Ducks (25th, 1481)
• December 7: vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (22nd, 1484)

5. Vegas Golden Knights ▼3 (1547, ▼14)

Record: 11-6-8, 3rd in Pacific Division

Chances of:

• Making the playoffs: 80% (▼6)
• Winning the President’s Trophy: 2% (▼5)
• Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▼2)

Last week: 1-2-1

• November 24: Lost 5-1 @ Utah Mammoth (19th, 1491)
• November 26: Lost in SO 4-3 vs. Ottawa Senators (10th, 1506)
• November 28: Lost 4-1 vs. Montreal Canadiens (10th, 1506)
• November 29: Won 4-3 vs. San Jose Sharks (32nd, 1430)

Next week:

• December 2: vs. Chicago Blackhawks (27th, 1475)
• December 5: @ New Jersey Devils (14th, 1503)
• December 7: @ New York Rangers (17th, 1493)

Overall Ratings

 1       Colorado Avalanche            1614 (▲7)
 2       Dallas Stars (▲1)             1574 (▲25)
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1)      1564 (▲24)
 4       Washington Capitals (▲3)      1549 (▲25)
 5       Vegas Golden Knights (▼3)     1547 (▼14)
 6       Los Angeles Kings             1535 (▲3)
 7       Carolina Hurricanes (▼2)      1532 (▼5)
 8       Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            1516 (▼5)
 9       St. Louis Blues (▲6)          1509 (▲8)
10 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲2)           1506 (▼1)
10 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲10)      1506 (▲13)
10 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▼2)          1506 (▼17)
10 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins           1506 (▼3)
14       New Jersey Devils (▲4)        1503 (▲5)
15       Florida Panthers (▼5)         1498 (▼11)
16       Edmonton Oilers (▲5)          1494 (▲2)
17       New York Rangers (▲10)        1493 (▲17)
18       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲5)      1492 (▲4)
19       Utah Mammoth (▼6)             1491 (▼13)
20       New York Islanders (▼7)       1487 (▼17)
21       Seattle Kraken (▼6)           1485 (▼16)
22 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲3)           1484 (▲6)
22 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         1484 (▼7)
22 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲6)      1484 (▲14)
25       Anaheim Ducks (▼6)            1481 (▼16)
26       Detroit Red Wings (▼11)       1478 (▼23)
27       Chicago Blackhawks (▼1)       1475 (▼2)
28       Buffalo Sabres (▼4)           1471 (▼12)
29       Boston Bruins                 1467
30       Vancouver Canucks             1459 (▲5)
31       Nashville Predators (▲1)      1433 (▲5)
32       San Jose Sharks (▼1)          1430 (▼1)

Chances of Winning Division

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           30% (▼5)
 2       Washington Capitals (▲3)      24% (▲13)
 3       New Jersey Devils (▼1)        16% (▲2)
 4       Pittsburgh Penguins           10% (▼2)
 5       Philadelphia Flyers (▲2)      9% (▲3)
 6 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets         4% (▼3)
 6 (tie) New York Islanders (▼3)       4% (▼9)
 8       New York Rangers              3% (▲1)

Atlantic Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           58% (▲27)
 2       Montreal Canadiens (▲2)       14% (▲3)
 3       Ottawa Senators (▼1)          9% (▼12)
 4       Florida Panthers              5% (▼6)
 5 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲1)            4% (▼1)
 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼2)        4% (▼10)
 5 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲3)      4% (▲1)
 8       Buffalo Sabres (▼1)           2% (▼2)

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            73% (▼2)
 2       Dallas Stars                  22% (▲9)
 3       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           2% (▼1)
 4 (tie) Utah Mammoth (▲1)             1% (▼1)
 4 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            1% (▼3)
 6 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks            <1% (▼1)
 6 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲2)      <1%
 6 (tie) St. Louis Blues               <1% (▼1)

Pacific Division

 1 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        32% (▲12)
 1 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          32% (▼7)
 3       Anaheim Ducks                 13% (▼5)
 4       Seattle Kraken                10% (▼4)
 5       Edmonton Oilers               8% (▲2)
 6       Calgary Flames                2% (▲1)
 7 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼1)          1%
 7 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼1)        1%

Making the Playoffs

Metropolitan Division

 1       Carolina Hurricanes           81% (▼1)
 2       Washington Capitals (▲2)      78% (▲22)
 3       New Jersey Devils (▼1)        68% (▲7)
 4       Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      55%
 5       Philadelphia Flyers (▲2)      51% (▲13)
 6       New York Islanders (▼3)       39% (▼20)
 7 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1)    34% (▼9)
 7 (tie) New York Rangers (▲1)         34% (▲10)

Atlantic Division

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           91% (▲15)
 2       Montreal Canadiens (▲2)       60% (▲11)
 3       Ottawa Senators (▼1)          51% (▼15)
 4       Florida Panthers              39% (▼10)
 5       Boston Bruins (▲1)            34% (▲2)
 6       Detroit Red Wings (▼3)        32% (▼24)
 7       Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1)      31% (▲5)
 8       Buffalo Sabres (▼1)           21% (▼8)

Central Division

 1       Colorado Avalanche            >99% (▲1)
 2       Dallas Stars                  96% (▲12)
 3       Minnesota Wild (▲1)           66% (▲8)
 4       Winnipeg Jets (▼1)            54% (▼5)
 5       Utah Mammoth                  41% (▼12)
 6       St. Louis Blues (▲1)          36% (▲6)
 7       Chicago Blackhawks (▼1)       34% (▼2)
 8       Nashville Predators           6% (▲1)

Pacific Division

 1 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1)        80% (▲9)
 1 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights          80% (▼6)
 3       Anaheim Ducks                 59% (▼9)
 4       Seattle Kraken                50% (▼13)
 5       Edmonton Oilers               46% (▲4)
 6 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲1)           18% (▲3)
 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks               18% (▼1)
 8       Vancouver Canucks             17% (▲3)

Winning the President’s Trophy

 1       Colorado Avalanche            56% (▲2)
 2       Dallas Stars                  15% (▲8)
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning (▲2)      8% (▲4)
 4       Carolina Hurricanes           4% (▼2)
 5       Washington Capitals (▲6)      3% (▲2)
 6 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             2%
 6 (tie) New Jersey Devils             2%
 6 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼4)     2% (▼5)
 9 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼3)            1% (▼1)
 9 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲2)           1%
 9 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲2)       1%
 9 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲12)     1% (▲1)
 9 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2)      1%
 9 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲2)            1%

Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.

Winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            16% (▲1)
 2       Dallas Stars (▲1)             9% (▲3)
 3       Tampa Bay Lightning           8% (▲2)
 4 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼2)     6% (▼2)
 4 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲2)      6% (▲2)
 6 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▼3)      5% (▼1)
 6 (tie) Los Angeles Kings             5% (▲1)
 8 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲1)           3%
 8 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲11)      3% (▲1)
 8 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1)        3%
 8 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▼2)          3% (▼1)
 8 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1)      3%
 8 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲1)            3%
14 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼5)            2% (▼1)
14 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲5)          2%
14 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼5)         2% (▼1)
14 (tie) New York Islanders (▼5)       2% (▼1)
14 (tie) New York Rangers (▲12)        2% (▲1)
14 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲5)      2%
14 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▼5)           2% (▼1)
14 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲5)          2%
14 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲5)      2%
14 (tie) Utah Mammoth (▼5)             2% (▼1)
24 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲2)            1%
24 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▼5)           1% (▼1)
24 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲2)           1%
24 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲2)       1%
24 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼5)    1% (▼1)
24 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼15)       1% (▼2)
24 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲2)        1%
31 (tie) Nashville Predators           <1%
31 (tie) San Jose Sharks               <1%