Author: Shane

McDonald CFL Power Ratings – Week 1

CFL logoAh, the CFL is back!  Week 1 provided a number of interesting games, and we see our ratings start to move.  We expect that after about 6 games, they’ll be pretty accurate, but for now, there’s still uncertainty built in.  That will continue to shake out over the next few weeks.

Thursday’s opening game featured a rematch of the 2019 Grey Cup (there was no Grey Cup in 2020, nor season, due to the COVID-19 pandemic), with Hamilton visiting Winnipeg.  Hamilton scored a touchdown on their first possession, but didn’t score again all game, as Winnipeg prevailed 19-6.

In the Friday night game, Saskatchewan hosted British Columbia.  Saskatchewan scored touchdowns on their first 3 possessions to take a 21-0 lead, and led by as much as 31-0 in the first half.  But the second half was a completely different game, with BC outscoring the Riders 29-2 the rest of the way, but Saskatchewan held on to win 33-29.  The star of the game had to be Saskatchewan punter Jon Ryan, a native of Regina and Super Bowl winner with the Seattle Seahawks, who scored two rouges (arguably the most exciting play in Canadian football!) on punts of 67 and 77 yards!  Also of note, BC placekicker Tarkeru Yamasaki became the first Japanese-born player to score a point in the CFL.  Interestingly enough, BC’s other kicker, punter Jake Ford, was born in Australia and played Aussie Rules football and rugby growing up.

There were two games on Saturday.  In the early game, Toronto stunned Calgary 23-20.  The Argos scored 11 points in the fourth quarter to come back, and picked off a Stampeder pass with 31 seconds left in the game to quench any hope of a Calgary comeback.

In Saturday’s nightcap, the newly-named Edmonton Elks hosted Ottawa.  In a tight defensive game, Ottawa scored 10 points in the fourth quarter to win 16-12.  On the final play of the game, the Elks scrimmaged from Ottawa’s 17-yard line and completed a pass for 16 yards, being stopped one yard short of the victory.

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

Winnipeg retains their number 1 ranking, while Saskatchewan has moved past Hamilton for 2nd spot.  British Columbia dropped two spots to be the lowest ranked team this week.

Ranking Team Rating Record
1 Winnipeg 1545 (▲11) 1-0, T-1st West
2 (▲1) Saskatchewan 1539 (▲9) 1-0, T-1st West
3 (▼1) Hamilton 1521 (▼11) 0-1, 4th East
4 Calgary 1510 (▼16) 0-1, T-3rd West
5 (▲1) Montreal 1493 0-0, 3rd East
6 (▼1) Edmonton 1483 (▼15) 0-1, T-3rd West
7 (▲1) Toronto 1481 (▲17) 1-0, T-1st East
8 (▲1) Ottawa 1476 (▲16) 1-0, T-1st East
9 (▼2) British Columbia 1468 (▼9) 0-1, T-3rd West

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg is now the most likely team to win the Grey Cup, with an 18% chance.  We’re giving a 54% chance of a Western division team winning the league championship, versus a 46% chance of an Eastern team.

Grey Cup Ranking Team Rating Win Grey Cup
1 (▲3) Winnipeg 1545 18% (▲9)
2 (▲1) Saskatchewan 1539 16% (▲6)
3 (▼2) Hamilton 1521 16% (▼9)
4 (▼2) Montreal 1493 11% (▼2)
5 (▲3) Toronto 1481 10% (▲1)
6 Ottawa 1476 10% (▲1)
7 (▼2) Calgary 1510 9%
8 (▼1) Edmonton 1483 6% (▼3)
9 British Columbia 1468 5% (▼3)

Our Full Predictions

Team Rating Make Playoffs Host Playoff Game Win Division Make Division Final Make Grey Cup Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg
(1-0)
T-1st West		 1545 84% 63% 37% 62% 33% 18%
Saskatchewan
(1-0)
T-1st in West		 1539 81% 58% 32% 58% 30% 16%
Hamilton
(0-1)
4th in East		 1521 71% 52% 26% 51% 28% 16%
Montreal
(0-0)
3rd in East		 1493 66% 47% 23% 45% 23% 11%
Toronto
(1-0)
T-1st in East		 1481 71% 50% 25% 47% 23% 10%
Ottawa
(1-0)
T-1st in East		 1476 72% 52% 26% 48% 23% 10%
Calgary
(0-1)
T-3rd in West		 1510 59% 33% 14% 36% 17% 9%
Edmonton
(0-1)
T-3rd in West		 1483 48% 24% 9% 27% 12% 6%
British Columbia
(0-1)
T-3rd in West		 1468 48% 22% 8% 25% 10% 5%

Week 2 Game Predictions

British Columbia (37%) at Calgary (62%)
Toronto (34%) at Winnipeg (65%)
Montreal (44%) at Edmonton (55%)
Hamilton (40%) at Saskatchewan (59%)

McDonald CFL Power Ratings Preseason Report

CFL logoThe McDonald Power Ratings team is back after a short hiatus.  We took a break after the NHL playoffs concluded, but now we’re back as the CFL season is about to start.  Here’s a brief look at our CFL predictions for this year.

Initial Ratings

Let’s start with a warning about our doubts with our initial ratings.  There was no CFL season last year, there have been lots of personnel changes in the league, and this season’s schedule has been shortened to 14 games from 18, so we don’t have a lot of confidence in our initial predictions.  As a result, we have adjusted our ratings to account for this uncertainty.  We always adjust our initial ratings to decrease the ratings for the better than average teams and increase the ratings for the worse than average teams, but we’ve adjusted by a larger amount than normal this year.  As the first few games are played, the ratings will be adjusted appropriately, but for now, here’s our initial ratings to give an indication of how we think the season will go.

Ranking

 Team Rating 2019 Record

2019 Playoffs

1

 Winnipeg 1534 11-7, 3rd West Won Grey Cup

2

 Hamilton 1532 15-3, 1st East Lost Grey Cup

3

 Saskatchewan 1530 13-5, 1st West Lost West Final

4

 Calgary 1526 12-6, 2nd West Lost West Semi
5 Edmonton 1498 8-10, 4th West

Lost East Final
6 Montreal 1493 10-8, 2nd East

Lost East Semi
7 British Columbia 1477 5-13, 5th West

—

8

 Toronto 1464

4-14, 3rd East

—
9 Ottawa 1460 3-15, 4th East

—

Grey Cup Predictions

But how about the chances of winning the Grey Cup?  There’s a surprise here!

Grey Cup Ranking

 Team Rating Win Grey Cup
1 Hamilton 1532

25%

2

 Montreal 1493 13%
3 Saskatchewan 1530

10%

4

 Winnipeg 1534 9%
5 Calgary 1526

9%

6

 Ottawa 1460 9%
7 Edmonton 1498

9%

8

 Toronto 1464 9%
9 British Columbia 1477

8%

Clearly, it’s an advantage to play in the Eastern division!  Last year, Hamilton had the best regular season record in the league, and made it all the way to the Grey Cup.  By playing in the weak Eastern division, and 3 of the 4 teams in that division making the playoffs (barring a cross-over, of course), they’ve got a pretty good chance of advancing to the Grey Cup.  And if you make it there, you’ve got roughly a 50-50 chance of winning.  But, the Grey Cup is being held in Hamilton this year, so that would give them the home field advantage, so we’re giving them a 25% chance of winning it all!

Our Full Predictions

Team

 Rating Make Playoffs Host Playoff Game Win Division Make Division Final Make Grey Cup

Win Grey Cup

Hamilton

 1532 80% 67% 40% 53% 40% 25%
Montreal 1493 69% 54% 26% 42% 27%

13%

Saskatchewan

 1530 72% 44% 23% 50% 20% 10%
Winnipeg 1534 74% 48% 25% 52% 20%

9%

Calgary

 1526 72% 45% 24% 51% 19% 9%
Ottawa 1460 58% 41% 18% 35% 19%

9%

Edmonton

 1498 62% 34% 16% 44% 19% 9%
Toronto 1464 56% 39% 17% 34% 18%

9%

British Columbia

 1477 55% 28% 12% 40% 19%

8%

Week 1 Game Predictions

Hamilton (43%) at Winnipeg (56%)
British Columbia (36%) at Saskatchewan (63%)
Toronto (34%) at Calgary (65%)
Ottawa (38%) at Edmonton (61%)

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – Playoff Report, July 8, 2021

Hockey playerIn a tight, tight game last night, Tampa Bay prevailed over Montreal 1-0 to win the Stanley Cup!  Tampa Bay won the series 4 games to 1, and successfully defended their Stanley Cup championship from last year.  The only goal of the game was scored by Ross Colton, 13:27 into the second period.  Both Carey Price and Andrei Vasilevskiy looked solid in net, but Montreal couldn’t get the puck past Vasilevskiy, who recorded his fifth shutout of the playoffs, earning himself the Conn Smythe Trophy as the playoff MVP.

That’s it for the McDonald NHL Power Ratings for this year — we’ll see you in August when we release our first McDonald CFL Power Ratings, as the CFL is set to kick off their shortened season on August 5th!

Yesterday’s Game

Stanley Cup Final

Montreal 0 at Tampa Bay 1

  • Tampa Bay wins series 4-1

Series schedule:

  • Monday, June 28: Montreal 1 at Tampa Bay 5
  • Wednesday, June 30: Montreal 1 at Tampa Bay 3
  • Friday, July 2: Tampa Bay 6 at Montreal 3
  • Monday, July 5: Tampa Bay 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)
  • Wednesday, July 7: Montreal 0 at Tampa Bay 1

Playoff Matchup – Stanley Cup Finals

Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Tampa Bay wins series 4-1

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Tampa Bay: 1581
  • Montreal: 1544

Playoffs so far:

  • Tampa Bay:
    • First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
    • Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
    • Semi-Final: Defeated New York Islanders in 7 games
  • Montreal:
    • First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
    • Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games
    • Semi-Final: Defeated Vegas in 6 games

Series schedule:

  • Monday, June 28: Montreal 1 at Tampa Bay 5
  • Wednesday, June 30: Montreal 1 at Tampa Bay 3
  • Friday, July 2: Tampa Bay 6 at Montreal 3
  • Monday, July 5: Tampa Bay 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)
  • Wednesday, July 7: Montreal 0 at Tampa Bay 1

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – Playoff Report, July 6, 2021

Hockey playerFacing elimination at home, the Montreal Canadiens lived to play another game after defeating Tampa Bay 3-2 in overtime last night.  Montreal took the lead 1-0 in the first period, and held that lead until late in the second when Tampa Bay scored.  It was a tight game, but Alex Romanov scored for Montreal at 8:48 of the third period to take the lead.  Romanov scored 7 seconds into his first shift of the Stanley Cup Finals!  Tampa Bay turned on the pressure at that point, and finally managed to beat Carey Price with 6:12 left in the third period.  Tampa Bay continued heavy pressure, dominating play, and then the Canadien’s Shea Weber took a 4 minute minor penalty for a high stick that drew blood with 1:01 left on the clock.  Montreal’s penalty killers, and Carey Price, did their job to hold off Tampa Bay for the rest of the period and the first three minutes of overtime to kill off the penalty.  Finally, Josh Anderson made a masterful defensive play to break out, and made a diving shot off a Cole Caufield rebound to lead the Canadiens to an overtime victory!

Tampa Bay leads the series 3 games to 1.  Despite the loss, we’re still giving Tampa Bay a 92.6% chance of winning the series, and a 64.0% chance of finishing it off in Game 5 in Tampa Bay on Wednesday.

Yesterday’s Game

Stanley Cup Final

Tampa Bay 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)

  • Tampa Bay leads series 3-1
  • Tampa Bay now has an 92.6% chance of winning the Stanley Cup, up from 96.7%

Series schedule:

  • Monday, June 28: Montreal 1 at Tampa Bay 5
  • Wednesday, June 30: Montreal 1 at Tampa Bay 3
  • Friday, July 2: Tampa Bay 6 at Montreal 3
  • Monday, July 5: Tampa Bay 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)
  • Wednesday, July 7: Montreal at Tampa Bay
  • Friday, July 9: Tampa Bay at Montreal (if necessary)
  • Sunday, July 11: Montreal at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

New simulation results:

  • Tampa Bay has a 92.6% chance of winning (▼4.1)
    • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼55.0)
    • In 5 games: 64.0% (▲35.2)
    • In 6 games: 18.0% (▲9.9)
    • In 7 games: 10.6% (▲5.8)
  • Montreal has a 7.4% chance of winning (▲4.1)
    • In 7 games: 7.4% (▲9.7)
    • In 6 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Wednesday’s Game

Stanley Cup Final

Montreal at Tampa Bay

  • Tampa Bay leads series 3-1
  • Tampa Bay has an 92.6% chance of winning the Stanley Cup

Playoff Matchup – Stanley Cup Finals

Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Tampa Bay leads series 3-1

Chances of winning: Tampa Bay 93%, Montreal 7%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Tampa Bay: 1581
  • Montreal: 1544

Playoffs so far:

  • Tampa Bay:
    • First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
    • Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
    • Semi-Final: Defeated New York Islanders in 7 games
  • Montreal:
    • First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
    • Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games
    • Semi-Final: Defeated Vegas in 6 games

Series schedule:

  • Monday, June 28: Montreal 1 at Tampa Bay 5
  • Wednesday, June 30: Montreal 1 at Tampa Bay 3
  • Friday, July 2: Tampa Bay 6 at Montreal 3
  • Monday, July 5: Tampa Bay 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)
  • Wednesday, July 7: Montreal at Tampa Bay
  • Friday, July 9: Tampa Bay at Montreal (if necessary)
  • Sunday, July 11: Montreal at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Tampa Bay has a 92.6% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 64.0%
    • In 6 games: 18.0%
    • In 7 games: 10.6%
  • Montreal has a 7.4% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 7.4%
    • In 6 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – Playoff Report, July 3, 2021

Hockey playerIt seems strange writing up an NHL Playoff Report in July, but I might only get to do it once more, after Tampa Bay soundly defeated Montreal 6-3 in last night’s Stanley Cup Final game.  The victory gives Tampa Bay a 3-0 lead in the series, and we’ve calculated that they’ve now got a 96.7% chance of hoisting Lord Stanley’s Cup (that sounds kind of bad!).

Tampa Bay put the pressure on early, jumping out to a 2-0 lead after three minutes and 27 seconds.  Montreal closed within one halfway through the period, and there was no more scoring in the first frame.  Once again in the second, Tampa Bay came out strong, scoring twice more in the first three and a half minutes to grab a 4-1 lead.  Montreal scored with two minutes left in the second to make it 4-2, and that’s how the period ended.  In the third, it was a tighter game, with Tampa Bay scoring with 4:41 left to make it 5-2, and Montreal scored 39 seconds later to make the game a little more interesting.  But, with the Montreal goalie pulled, Tampa Bay finished off the scoring with 3:12 left.

In an interesting side note, thanks to COVID, Victor Hedman of Tampa Bay becomes the first NHL player to have scored a goal in all twelve months of the calendar!

The teams have the weekend off, with the series resuming on Monday in Montreal.  With a victory, Tampa Bay can become the second back-to-back winner of the Stanley Cup this century (Pittsburgh is the other, having won it in both 2016 and 2017).  Despite the game being in Montreal, we’re giving Tampa Bay a 55% chance of the sweep.

Yesterday’s Game

Stanley Cup Final

Tampa Bay 6 at Montreal 3

  • Tampa Bay leads series 3-0
  • Tampa Bay now has an 96.7% chance of winning the Stanley Cup, up from 87.0%

Series schedule:

  • Monday, June 28: Montreal 1 at Tampa Bay 5
  • Wednesday, June 30: Montreal 1 at Tampa Bay 3
  • Friday, July 2: Tampa Bay 6 at Montreal 3
  • Monday, July 5: Tampa Bay at Montreal
  • Wednesday, July 7: Montreal at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
  • Friday, July 9: Tampa Bay at Montreal (if necessary)
  • Sunday, July 11: Montreal at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

New simulation results:

  • Tampa Bay has a 96.7% chance of winning (▲9.7)
    • In 4 games: 55.0% (▲25.8)
    • In 5 games: 28.8% (▼1.7)
    • In 6 games: 8.1% (▼7.4)
    • In 7 games: 4.8% (▼6.9)
  • Montreal has a 3.3% chance of winning (▼9.7)
    • In 7 games: 3.3% (▼4.8)
    • In 6 games: 0.0% (▼5.0)
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Monday’s Game

Stanley Cup Final

Tampa Bay at Montreal

  • Tampa Bay leads series 3-0
  • Tampa Bay has an 96.7% chance of winning the Stanley Cup

Playoff Matchup – Stanley Cup Finals

Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Tampa Bay leads series 3-0

Chances of winning: Tampa Bay 97%, Montreal 3%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Tampa Bay: 1581
  • Montreal: 1544

Playoffs so far:

  • Tampa Bay:
    • First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
    • Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
    • Semi-Final: Defeated New York Islanders in 7 games
  • Montreal:
    • First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
    • Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games
    • Semi-Final: Defeated Vegas in 6 games

Series schedule:

  • Monday, June 28: Montreal 1 at Tampa Bay 5
  • Wednesday, June 30: Montreal 1 at Tampa Bay 3
  • Friday, July 2: Tampa Bay 6 at Montreal 3
  • Monday, July 5: Tampa Bay at Montreal
  • Wednesday, July 7: Montreal at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
  • Friday, July 9: Tampa Bay at Montreal (if necessary)
  • Sunday, July 11: Montreal at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Tampa Bay has a 96.7% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 55.0%
    • In 5 games: 28.8%
    • In 6 games: 8.1%
    • In 7 games: 4.8%
  • Montreal has a 3.3% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 3.3%
    • In 6 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – Playoff Report, July 1, 2021

Hockey playerMontreal came out strong in last night’s game, looking like a much better team than in Game 1, but still lost to Tampa Bay 3-1.  Montreal outshot Tampa Bay 43-23, but haven’t been able to solve the puzzle of Lightning goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy.  The first period ended scoreless, and Tampa Bay opened the scoring 6 minutes into the second period.  Montreal tied it up at the halfway mark of the period, but Tampa Bay again took the lead with 0.3 seconds left in the period!  Tampa Bay scored an insurance goal after Montreal’s bad giveaway behind their own net with 4:18 left, and that was all the scoring.  Tampa Bay now leads the series 2-0, with Montreal unable to score more than 1 goal in either game so far.  With the win, we’re now giving Tampa Bay an 87.0% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.

The teams now head to Montreal for Game 3 on Friday.

Yesterday’s Game

Stanley Cup Final

Montreal 1 at Tampa Bay 3

  • Tampa Bay leads series 2-0
  • Tampa Bay now has an 87.0% chance of winning the Stanley Cup, up from 75.5%

Series schedule:

  • Monday, June 28: Montreal 1 at Tampa Bay 5
  • Wednesday, June 30: Montreal 1 at Tampa Bay 3
  • Friday, July 2: Tampa Bay at Montreal
  • Monday, July 5: Tampa Bay at Montreal
  • Wednesday, July 7: Montreal at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
  • Friday, July 9: Tampa Bay at Montreal (if necessary)
  • Sunday, July 11: Montreal at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

New simulation results:

  • Tampa Bay has a 87.0% chance of winning (▲11.5)
    • In 4 games: 29.2% (▲10.9)
    • In 5 games: 30.5% (▲5.2)
    • In 6 games: 15.5% (▼1.3)
    • In 7 games: 11.7% (▼3.4)
  • Montreal has a 13.0% chance of winning (▼11.5)
    • In 7 games: 8.1% (▼2.1)
    • In 6 games: 5.0% (▼4.9)
    • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼4.4)
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Friday’s Game

Stanley Cup Final

Tampa Bay at Montreal

  • Tampa Bay leads series 2-0
  • Tampa Bay has an 87.0% chance of winning the Stanley Cup

Playoff Matchup – Stanley Cup Finals

Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Tampa Bay leads series 2-0

Chances of winning: Tampa Bay 87%, Montreal 13%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Tampa Bay: 1581
  • Montreal: 1544

Playoffs so far:

  • Tampa Bay:
    • First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
    • Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
    • Semi-Final: Defeated New York Islanders in 7 games
  • Montreal:
    • First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
    • Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games
    • Semi-Final: Defeated Vegas in 6 games

Series schedule:

  • Monday, June 28: Montreal 1 at Tampa Bay 5
  • Wednesday, June 30: Montreal 1 at Tampa Bay 3
  • Friday, July 2: Tampa Bay at Montreal
  • Monday, July 5: Tampa Bay at Montreal
  • Wednesday, July 7: Montreal at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
  • Friday, July 9: Tampa Bay at Montreal (if necessary)
  • Sunday, July 11: Montreal at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Tampa Bay has a 87.0% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 29.2%
    • In 5 games: 30.5%
    • In 6 games: 15.5%
    • In 7 games: 11.7%
  • Montreal has a 13.0% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 8.1%
    • In 6 games: 5.0%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – Playoff Report, June 29, 2021

Hockey playerIn a game that was much closer than the final score indicated, Tampa Bay defeated Montreal 5-1 to take a 1-0 lead in the Stanley Cup Final.  Tampa Bay took advantage of a Montreal turnover 6:19 into the first period to take the lead, and extended that lead to 2-0 in the second period after another Montreal turnover.  Montreal fought back, though, and narrowed the gap with a goal late in the second period.  But, after the Canadien’s Ben Chiarot tipped the puck into his own net early in the third, the wheels fell off for Montreal.  Tampa Bay put the game out of reach midway through the third to make it 4-1, and finished up the scoring on a late power play goal.

With the win, Tampa Bay, already the favourite, has increased their chances of winning the Stanley Cup.  The McDonald NHL Power Ratings team now gives Tampa Bay a 75.5% chance of winning the Final, up from 61.9%.  That means, in our 1,000,000 simulations, Tampa Bay won roughly ¾ of the time.  But that also means that Montreal won ¼ of the time, so they can’t be counted out yet!  Remember, they won their first round series against Toronto after being down 3 games to 1, when we calculated that Toronto had a 95% chance of winning the series.

Game 2 of the Stanley Cup Final goes tomorrow night in Tampa Bay.

Yesterday’s Game

Stanley Cup Final

Montreal 1 at Tampa Bay 5

  • Tampa Bay leads series 1-0
  • Tampa Bay now has a 75.5% chance of winning the Stanley Cup, up from 61.9%

Series schedule:

  • Monday, June 28: Montreal 1 at Tampa Bay 5
  • Wednesday, June 30: Montreal at Tampa Bay
  • Friday, July 2: Tampa Bay at Montreal
  • Monday, July 5: Tampa Bay at Montreal
  • Wednesday, July 7: Montreal at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
  • Friday, July 9: Tampa Bay at Montreal (if necessary)
  • Sunday, July 11: Montreal at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

New simulation results:

  • Tampa Bay has a 75.5% chance of winning (▲13.6)
    • In 4 games: 18.3% (▲7.1)
    • In 5 games: 25.3% (▲6.3)
    • In 6 games: 16.8% (▲1.2)
    • In 7 games: 15.1% (▼1.0)
  • Montreal has a 24.5% chance of winning (▼13.6)
    • In 7 games: 10.2% (▼0.6)
    • In 6 games: 9.9% (▼3.3)
    • In 5 games: 4.4% (▼4.4)
    • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼5.3)

Wednesday’s Game

Stanley Cup Final

Montreal at Tampa Bay

  • Tampa Bay leads series 1-0
  • Tampa Bay has a 75.5% chance of winning the Stanley Cup

Playoff Matchup – Stanley Cup Finals

Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Tampa Bay leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Tampa Bay 75%, Montreal 25%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Tampa Bay: 1581
  • Montreal: 1544

Playoffs so far:

  • Tampa Bay:
    • First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
    • Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
    • Semi-Final: Defeated New York Islanders in 7 games
  • Montreal:
    • First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
    • Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games
    • Semi-Final: Defeated Vegas in 6 games

Series schedule:

  • Monday, June 28: Montreal 1 at Tampa Bay 5
  • Wednesday, June 30: Montreal at Tampa Bay
  • Friday, July 2: Tampa Bay at Montreal
  • Monday, July 5: Tampa Bay at Montreal
  • Wednesday, July 7: Montreal at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
  • Friday, July 9: Tampa Bay at Montreal (if necessary)
  • Sunday, July 11: Montreal at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Tampa Bay has a 75.5% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 18.3%
    • In 5 games: 25.3%
    • In 6 games: 16.8%
    • In 7 games: 15.1%
  • Montreal has a 24.5% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 10.2%
    • In 6 games: 9.9%
    • In 5 games: 4.4%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – Playoff Report, June 26, 2021

Hockey playerIn a hard-fought game yesterday, Tampa Bay prevailed over the New York Islanders 1-0 to win their Semi-Final 4 games to 3.  Tampa Bay played very tough defense, and goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped everything that got through to him.  Tampa Bay outshot New York 31-18, although Tampa Bay did block 21 of the Islanders’ shot attempts.  The only goal of the game came on a short-handed goal by Yanni Gourde early in the second period.

Tampa Bay now advances to the Stanley Cup Final, facing underdog Montreal, who beat top-ranked Vegas in 6 games.  With the updated McDonald NHL Power Ratings, we’re now giving Tampa Bay a rating of 1581, up 4 from before the last round, and Montreal a rating of 1544, up a huge 24 points due to their upset of Vegas.  Plugging the latest results into our models, we’re giving the defending Stanley Cup champions Tampa Bay the edge, with a 61.9% chance of hoisting Lord Stanley’s mug.  But that means Montreal still has a 38.1% chance of winning it themselves, and they’ve proven in these playoffs that they can’t be counted out!

Our next McDonald NHL Power Ratings Playoff Report will come out on Tuesday, after Game 1 of the Finals.

Yesterday’s Game

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

New York Islanders 0 at Tampa Bay 1

  • Tampa Bay wins series 4-3

Series schedule:

  • June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
  • June 15: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4
  • June 17: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 1
  • June 19: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3
  • June 21: New York Islanders 0 at Tampa Bay 8
  • June 23: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3 (OT)
  • June 25: New York Islanders 0 at Tampa Bay 1

Monday’s Game

Stanley Cup Final

Montreal at Tampa Bay

  • Series tied 0-0
  • Tampa Bay has a 61.9% chance of winning the Stanley Cup

Playoff Matchups – Semi-Finals

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Montreal wins series 4-2

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Vegas: 1600, 1st overall
  • Montreal: 1520, 4th overall

Playoffs so far:

  • Vegas:
    • First round: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games
    • Division final: Defeated Colorado in 6 games
  • Montreal:
    • First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
    • Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games

Series schedule:

  • June 14: Montreal 1 at Vegas 4
  • June 16: Montreal 3 at Vegas 2
  • June 18: Vegas 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)
  • June 20: Vegas 2 at Montreal 1 (OT)
  • June 22: Montreal 4 at Vegas 1
  • June 24: Vegas 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Tampa Bay wins series 4-3

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Tampa Bay: 1577, 2nd overall
  • New York Islanders: 1562, 3rd overall

Playoffs so far:

  • Tampa Bay:
    • First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
    • Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
  • New York Islanders:
    • First round: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games
    • Division final: Defeated Boston in 6 games

Series schedule:

  • June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
  • June 15: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4
  • June 17: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 1
  • June 19: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3
  • June 21: New York Islanders 0 at Tampa Bay 8
  • June 23: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3 (OT)
  • June 25: New York Islanders 0 at Tampa Bay 1

Playoff Matchup – Stanley Cup Finals

Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Series tied 0-0

Chances of winning: Tampa Bay 62%, Montreal 38%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Tampa Bay: 1581 (▲4)
  • Montreal: 1544 (▲24)

Playoffs so far:

  • Tampa Bay:
    • First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
    • Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
    • Semi-Final: Defeated New York Islanders in 7 games
  • Montreal:
    • First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
    • Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games
    • Semi-Final: Defeated Vegas in 6 games

Series schedule:

  • Monday, June 28: Montreal at Tampa Bay
  • Wednesday, June 30: Montreal at Tampa Bay
  • Friday, July 2: Tampa Bay at Montreal
  • Monday, July 5: Tampa Bay at Montreal
  • Wednesday, July 7: Montreal at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
  • Friday, July 9: Tampa Bay at Montreal (if necessary)
  • Sunday, July 11: Montreal at Tampa Bay (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Tampa Bay has a 61.9% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 11.2%
    • In 5 games: 19.0%
    • In 6 games: 15.6%
    • In 7 games: 16.1%
  • Montreal has a 38.1% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 10.8%
    • In 6 games: 13.2%
    • In 5 games: 8.8%
    • In 4 games: 5.3%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the Stanley Cup Finals started.

 1       Tampa Bay Lightning           61.9%
 2       Montreal Canadiens            38.1%

 

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – Playoff Report, June 25, 2021

Hockey playerFor the first time since 2011, a Canadian team is in the Stanley Cup Finals!  Montreal came up big at home yesterday, defeating Vegas 3-2 in overtime to win their Semi-Final 4 games to 2.  The first period ended tied 1-1, but Montreal took the lead 2-1 in the second period.  Early in the third period, Vegas tied it up, and despite taking control of the game, Vegas couldn’t score again as the game headed to overtime tied 2-2.  Then, Artturi Lehkonen scored 1:39 into overtime to win it for Montreal.  All 3 games played in Montreal went to overtime, and Montreal is 5-1 in overtime games in the playoffs, with their only loss coming to Vegas in Game 4 of this series.  Montreal will now play the winner of tonight’s game in the Stanley Cup Finals.

In tonight’s game, the New York Islanders visit Tampa Bay to take on the defending Stanley Cup champions in Game 7 of their series.  We’ve calculated that, being the home team, Tampa Bay has the advantage, with a 57.0% chance of winning the game and the series.

Yesterday’s Game

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Vegas 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)

  • Montreal wins series 4-2

Series schedule:

  • June 14: Montreal 1 at Vegas 4
  • June 16: Montreal 3 at Vegas 2
  • June 18: Vegas 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)
  • June 20: Vegas 2 at Montreal 1 (OT)
  • June 22: Montreal 4 at Vegas 1
  • June 24: Vegas 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)

Today’s Game

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

New York Islanders at Tampa Bay

  • Series tied 3-3
  • Tampa Bay has a 57.0% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matches – Semi-Finals

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Montreal wins series 4-2

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Vegas: 1600, 1st overall
  • Montreal: 1520, 4th overall

Playoffs so far:

  • Vegas:
    • First round: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games
    • Division final: Defeated Colorado in 6 games
  • Montreal:
    • First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
    • Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games

Series schedule:

  • June 14: Montreal 1 at Vegas 4
  • June 16: Montreal 3 at Vegas 2
  • June 18: Vegas 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)
  • June 20: Vegas 2 at Montreal 1 (OT)
  • June 22: Montreal 4 at Vegas 1
  • June 24: Vegas 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Series tied 3-3

Chances of winning: Tampa Bay 57%, New York Islanders 43%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Tampa Bay: 1577, 2nd overall
  • New York Islanders: 1562, 3rd overall

Playoffs so far:

  • Tampa Bay:
    • First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
    • Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
  • New York Islanders:
    • First round: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games
    • Division final: Defeated Boston in 6 games

Series schedule:

  • June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
  • June 15: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4
  • June 17: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 1
  • June 19: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3
  • June 21: New York Islanders 0 at Tampa Bay 8
  • June 23: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3 (OT)
  • June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay

Simulation results:

  • Tampa Bay has a 57.0% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 6 games: 0.0%
    • In 7 games: 57.0%
  • New York Islanders has a 43.0% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 43.0%
    • In 6 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the semi-finals started.  We will recalculate once the semi-finals have concluded.

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          41.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           27.6%
 3       New York Islanders            20.6%
 4       Montreal Canadiens            10.1%

 

McDonald NHL Power Ratings – Playoff Report, June 24, 2021

Hockey playerBack when I was a kid, I used to watch the show “Howie Meeker’s Hockey School” on CBC on Saturday afternoon.  It was just a show filmed at Howie Meeker’s hockey school (what a surprise!).  There were two things he drummed into those kids’ heads: “Keep two hands on your stick!” and “Never pass the puck in front of your own net!”  45 years later, I can still remember those two things.  Unfortunately for Tampa Bay, they forgot the latter, passing the puck in front of their own net, in overtime yet, turning it over, and losing the game 3-2 to the New York Islanders.

Tampa Bay took the lead in the first on Brayden Point’s goal.  He has now scored in nine consecutive games in the playoffs, one shy of the all-time record held by Reggie Leach of the hated 1976 Philadelphia Flyers, the Broad Street Bullies.  Tampa Bay extended the lead to 2-0, but the Islanders clawed back, making it 2-1 at the end of the second, and tying it up with 8:44 left in the third.  That was all the scoring in regulation time.  In overtime, Tampa Bay made their big mistake and Anthony Beauvillier took advantage only 1:08 into overtime to win it for New York.  The series is now tied 3-3, and the teams head back to Tampa Bay for the decisive Game 7.  We’re giving Tampa Bay a 57.0% chance of winning the game and advancing to the Stanley Cup final.

In tonight’s game, Montreal has a chance to finish off their series, as they host Vegas leading 3 games to 2.  We’re giving Montreal a 67.4% chance of winning the series, but only a 49.0% chance of winning it tonight.

Yesterday’s Game

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3 (OT)

  • Series tied 3-3
  • Tampa Bay now has a 57.0% chance of winning the series, down from 77.6%

Series schedule:

  • June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
  • June 15: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4
  • June 17: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 1
  • June 19: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3
  • June 21: New York Islanders 0 at Tampa Bay 8
  • June 23: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3 (OT)
  • June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay

New simulation results:

  • Tampa Bay has a 57.0% chance of winning (▼20.6)
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 6 games: 0.0% (▼48.0)
    • In 7 games: 57.0% (▲27.4)
  • New York Islanders has a 43.0% chance of winning (▲20.6)
    • In 7 games: 43.0% (▲20.6)
    • In 6 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Game

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Montreal at Vegas

  • Montreal leads series 3-2
  • Montreal has a 67.4% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matches – Semi-Finals

Semi-Final – 1 vs. 4

Vegas (2nd in West, 82 pts) vs. Montreal (4th in North, 59 pts)

Montreal leads series 3-2

Chances of winning: Vegas 33%, Montreal 67%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Vegas: 1600, 1st overall
  • Montreal: 1520, 4th overall

Playoffs so far:

  • Vegas:
    • First round: Defeated Minnesota in 7 games
    • Division final: Defeated Colorado in 6 games
  • Montreal:
    • First round: Defeated Toronto in 7 games
    • Division final: Defeated Winnipeg in 4 games

Series schedule:

  • June 14: Montreal 1 at Vegas 4
  • June 16: Montreal 3 at Vegas 2
  • June 18: Vegas 2 at Montreal 3 (OT)
  • June 20: Vegas 2 at Montreal 1 (OT)
  • June 22: Montreal 4 at Vegas 1
  • June 24: Vegas at Montreal
  • June 26: Montreal at Vegas (if necessary)

Simulation results:

  • Vegas has a 32.6% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 6 games: 0.0%
    • In 7 games: 32.6%
  • Montreal has a 67.4% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 18.3%
    • In 6 games: 49.0%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Semi-Final – 2 vs. 3

Tampa Bay (3rd in Central, 75 pts) vs. New York Islanders (4th in East, 71 pts)

Series tied 3-3

Chances of winning: Tampa Bay 57%, New York Islanders 43%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

  • Tampa Bay: 1577, 2nd overall
  • New York Islanders: 1562, 3rd overall

Playoffs so far:

  • Tampa Bay:
    • First round: Defeated Florida in 6 games
    • Division final: Defeated Carolina in 5 games
  • New York Islanders:
    • First round: Defeated Pittsburgh in 6 games
    • Division final: Defeated Boston in 6 games

Series schedule:

  • June 13: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 1
  • June 15: New York Islanders 2 at Tampa Bay 4
  • June 17: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 1
  • June 19: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3
  • June 21: New York Islanders 0 at Tampa Bay 8
  • June 23: Tampa Bay 2 at New York Islanders 3 (OT)
  • June 25: New York Islanders at Tampa Bay

Simulation results:

  • Tampa Bay has a 57.0% chance of winning
    • In 4 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 6 games: 0.0%
    • In 7 games: 57.0%
  • New York Islanders has a 43.0% chance of winning
    • In 7 games: 43.0%
    • In 6 games: 0.0%
    • In 5 games: 0.0%
    • In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

These chances were calculated before the semi-finals started.

 1       Vegas Golden Knights          41.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           27.6%
 3       New York Islanders            20.6%
 4       Montreal Canadiens            10.1%