What a week of hockey! As we wrap up the first full week of March, the playoff picture is sharpening, and a few teams are making loud statements at just the right time. We’ve seen high-scoring thrillers, major divisional shifts, and a new heavyweight contender officially crashing the top two.
The Top 5 Heavyweights
1. Colorado (1, 1613)
The Avalanche remain the gold standard. They padded their rating this week with a gutsy 3–2 shootout win over Minnesota, essentially locking up their postseason plans with playoff odds at >99%.
2. Buffalo (2, +2, 1596)
The hottest team in the league. Buffalo went a perfect 4–0 this week, capped off by an unbelievable 8–7 victory over Tampa Bay. They’ve seen a massive surge in their divisional win odds, now sitting at 51%, and look like a true threat with a 13% chance to hoist the Cup.
3. Dallas (3, 1576)
The Stars are the model of consistency. They took care of business against Chicago and Vancouver, maintaining their rank and keeping their playoff odds at >99%.
4. Carolina (4, +1, 1570)
The Hurricanes continue to blow through the Metropolitan. Even with a late-week stumble against Calgary, their overall body of work has pushed their division-winning probability to a commanding 90%.
5. Tampa Bay (5, -3, 1565)
It was a week to forget for the Bolts. Dropping three out of four games—including that high-octane loss to Buffalo—has seen them slide out of the top two. While they are still a safe bet for the playoffs at 99%, they’ve lost their grip on the Atlantic lead.
Biggest Risers
• St. Louis (20, +7, 1485): The Blues are singing a happy tune after a flawless 3–0 week. By taking down Seattle, San Jose, and Anaheim, they’ve climbed seven spots. While their playoff hopes remain slim at 3%, this momentum is a pride-builder for the franchise.
• Utah (12, +5, 1520): Utah is officially on a tear. A perfect week, including a shutout against Philadelphia, has catapulted them five spots up the rankings. More importantly, their playoff odds jumped by 19% this week, now sitting at a very comfortable 93%.
Biggest Fallers
• Toronto (25, -5, 1471): A difficult stretch for the Buds. They failed to find the win column this week, dropping games to New Jersey, the Rangers, and Tampa Bay. Their playoff chances have effectively evaporated, now sitting at less than 1%.
• Vegas (15, -3, 1494): The Golden Knights are stumbling at the wrong time. Losses to Buffalo and Edmonton have caused a 10% drop in their playoff security, though they still hold an 81% chance to make the dance.
Division Dogfights
• Atlantic: We have a new leader! Buffalo’s spectacular week saw their division win odds skyrocket from 15% to 51%, leapfrogging Tampa Bay, who saw their odds crater by 32%.
• Metropolitan: Carolina has turned this into a one-horse race. Their division win odds hit 90% this week, while Pittsburgh’s slide has them sitting at just a 7% chance to reclaim the top spot.
• Central: This remains the Colorado show. With a 94% chance to win the division, the Avalanche are just waiting for the regular season to end. Dallas is the only other team with a mathematical pulse at 5%.
• Pacific: This is the wildest race in the league. Anaheim holds the edge at 37%, but Vegas (27%), Edmonton (16%), and Seattle (9%) are all within striking distance. San Jose also remains a dark horse here with a 9% chance to steal the crown.
Streaks and Postseason Impact
The story of the week is undoubtedly Buffalo’s four-game win streak. By sweeping their schedule, they didn’t just move up the rankings; they completely reshaped the Atlantic Division. Their Cup odds nearly doubled, rising from 8% to 13%.
Meanwhile, Utah’s three-game win streak has almost entirely punched their ticket to the postseason. Starting the week with a 74% chance, their perfect run has pushed them to 93%, making them one of the most dangerous “risers” heading into late March. Conversely, Seattle’s recent struggles have been costly; their playoff odds plummeted by 23% this week, leaving them in a precarious 52% “coin-flip” scenario for the final weeks.
Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.
The top 5
1. Colorado Avalanche (1613, ▲10)
Record: 43-10-9, 1st in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 92% (▲16)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 20% (▲2)
Last week: 4-0-0
- March 2: Won 4-2 @ Los Angeles Kings (24th, 1472)
- March 3: Won 5-1 @ Anaheim Ducks (27th, 1469)
- March 6: Won in SO 5-4 @ Dallas Stars (3rd, 1576)
- March 8: Won in SO 3-2 vs. Minnesota Wild (6th, 1546)
Next week:
- March 10: vs. Edmonton Oilers (17th, 1490)
- March 12: @ Seattle Kraken (19th, 1488)
- March 14: @ Winnipeg Jets (17th, 1490)
2. Buffalo Sabres ▲2 (1596, ▲24)
Record: 39-19-6, 1st in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99% (▲5)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 1% (▲1)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 13% (▲5)
Last week: 4-0-0
- March 3: Won 3-2 vs. Vegas Golden Knights (15th, 1494)
- March 5: Won 5-1 @ Pittsburgh Penguins (9th, 1533)
- March 7: Won 3-2 vs. Nashville Predators (21st, 1479)
- March 8: Won 8-7 vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (5th, 1565)
Next week:
- March 10: vs. San Jose Sharks (28th, 1460)
- March 12: vs. Washington Capitals (16th, 1493)
- March 14: vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (25th, 1471)
3. Dallas Stars ▲2 (1576, ▲7)
Record: 39-14-10, 2nd in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 5% (▼2)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 10%
Last week: 3-0-1
- March 2: Won 6-1 @ Vancouver Canucks (32nd, 1392)
- March 3: Won 6-1 @ Calgary Flames (26th, 1470)
- March 6: Lost in SO 5-4 vs. Colorado Avalanche (1st, 1613)
- March 8: Won in OT 4-3 vs. Chicago Blackhawks (30th, 1434)
Next week:
- March 10: vs. Vegas Golden Knights (15th, 1494)
- March 12: vs. Edmonton Oilers (17th, 1490)
- March 14: vs. Detroit Red Wings (12th, 1520)
4. Carolina Hurricanes ▼1 (1570, ▼6)
Record: 40-17-6, 1st in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 1% (▼7)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▼1)
Last week: 2-2-0
- March 2: Lost 2-1 @ Seattle Kraken (19th, 1488)
- March 4: Won 6-4 @ Vancouver Canucks (32nd, 1392)
- March 6: Won 6-3 @ Edmonton Oilers (17th, 1490)
- March 7: Lost 5-4 @ Calgary Flames (26th, 1470)
Next week:
- March 10: vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (9th, 1533)
- March 12: vs. St. Louis Blues (20th, 1485)
- March 14: @ Tampa Bay Lightning (5th, 1565)
5. Tampa Bay Lightning ▼3 (1565, ▼17)
Record: 39-19-4, 2nd in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 99% (▼1)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: <1% (▼8)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▼3)
Last week: 1-3-0
- March 3: Lost 5-1 @ Minnesota Wild (6th, 1546)
- March 5: Lost 4-1 @ Winnipeg Jets (17th, 1490)
- March 7: Won 5-2 @ Toronto Maple Leafs (25th, 1471)
- March 8: Lost 8-7 @ Buffalo Sabres (2nd, 1596)
Next week:
- March 10: vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (11th, 1524)
- March 12: vs. Detroit Red Wings (12th, 1520)
- March 14: vs. Carolina Hurricanes (4th, 1570)
Overall Ratings
1 Colorado Avalanche 1613 (▲10) 2 Buffalo Sabres (▲2) 1596 (▲24) 3 Dallas Stars (▲2) 1576 (▲7) 4 Carolina Hurricanes (▼1) 1570 (▼6) 5 Tampa Bay Lightning (▼3) 1565 (▼17) 6 Minnesota Wild (▲2) 1546 (▲18) 7 Montreal Canadiens 1541 (▼2) 8 Ottawa Senators (▲2) 1538 (▲15) 9 Pittsburgh Penguins (▼3) 1533 (▼18) 10 Boston Bruins (▼1) 1530 (▲6) 11 Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2) 1524 (▲10) 12 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼1) 1520 (▲5) 12 (tie) Utah Mammoth (▲4) 1520 (▲17) 14 New York Islanders 1495 (▼14) 15 Vegas Golden Knights (▼4) 1494 (▼21) 16 Washington Capitals (▼1) 1493 (▼14) 17 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲2) 1490 (▲3) 17 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲3) 1490 (▲4) 19 Seattle Kraken (▼2) 1488 (▼9) 20 St. Louis Blues (▲7) 1485 (▲18) 21 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼3) 1479 (▼11) 21 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1) 1479 (▼5) 23 Florida Panthers 1475 (▼4) 24 Los Angeles Kings 1472 (▼6) 25 Toronto Maple Leafs (▼5) 1471 (▼15) 26 Calgary Flames 1470 (▼4) 27 Anaheim Ducks (▼2) 1469 (▼6) 28 San Jose Sharks 1460 (▲8) 29 New Jersey Devils 1445 (▲7) 30 Chicago Blackhawks (▼1) 1434 (▼4) 31 New York Rangers 1422 (▲3) 32 Vancouver Canucks 1392 (▲4)
Chances of Winning Division
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes 90% (▲6) 2 Pittsburgh Penguins 7% (▼5) 3 New York Islanders 2% (▼2) 4 Columbus Blue Jackets 1% (▲1) 5 (tie) New York Rangers (▼1) <1% 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼1) <1% 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼1) <1% 5 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼1) <1%
Atlantic Division
1 Buffalo Sabres (▲1) 51% (▲36) 2 Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1) 37% (▼33) 3 Montreal Canadiens 7% (▼3) 4 Detroit Red Wings 3% 5 Boston Bruins 1% (▼1) 6 (tie) Florida Panthers <1% 6 (tie) Ottawa Senators <1% 6 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs <1%
Central Division
1 Colorado Avalanche 94% (▲6) 2 Dallas Stars 5% (▼6) 3 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1) <1% 3 (tie) Minnesota Wild <1% (▼1) 3 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲1) <1% 3 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲1) <1% 3 (tie) Utah Mammoth (▲1) <1% 3 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲1) <1%
Pacific Division
1 Anaheim Ducks (▲1) 37% (▲7) 2 Vegas Golden Knights (▼1) 27% (▼15) 3 Edmonton Oilers (▲1) 16% (▲8) 4 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1) 9% (▲5) 4 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▼1) 9% (▼3) 6 Los Angeles Kings 2% (▼1) 7 (tie) Calgary Flames <1% 7 (tie) Vancouver Canucks <1%
Making the Playoffs
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes >99% 2 Pittsburgh Penguins 83% (▼8) 3 New York Islanders 68% (▼11) 4 Columbus Blue Jackets 54% (▲20) 5 Philadelphia Flyers (▲1) 13% 6 Washington Capitals (▼1) 7% (▼15) 7 New Jersey Devils 1% 8 New York Rangers <1%
Atlantic Division
1 Buffalo Sabres (▲1) >99% (▲5) 2 Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1) 99% (▼1) 3 Montreal Canadiens 89% (▼2) 4 Detroit Red Wings 79% (▲2) 5 Boston Bruins 66% (▲3) 6 Ottawa Senators 40% (▲13) 7 Florida Panthers 1% (▼3) 8 Toronto Maple Leafs <1% (▼3)
Central Division
1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche >99% 1 (tie) Dallas Stars >99% 1 (tie) Minnesota Wild >99% 4 Utah Mammoth 93% (▲20) 5 Nashville Predators 23% (▼18) 6 Winnipeg Jets 16% (▲9) 7 St. Louis Blues 3% (▲2) 8 Chicago Blackhawks (▼1) <1% (▼1)
Pacific Division
1 Anaheim Ducks (▲1) 86% (▲1) 2 Vegas Golden Knights (▼1) 81% (▼9) 3 Edmonton Oilers (▲1) 69% (▲13) 4 Seattle Kraken (▼1) 52% (▼11) 5 San Jose Sharks 48% (▲8) 6 Los Angeles Kings 28% (▼11) 7 Calgary Flames 2% (▼2) 8 Vancouver Canucks <1%
Winning the President’s Trophy
1 Colorado Avalanche 92% (▲16) 2 Dallas Stars (▲2) 5% (▼2) 3 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲3) 1% (▲1) 3 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▼1) 1% (▼7)
Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.
Winning the Stanley Cup
1 Colorado Avalanche 20% (▲2) 2 Buffalo Sabres (▲3) 13% (▲5) 3 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▼1) 10% (▼1) 3 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲1) 10% 5 Tampa Bay Lightning (▼3) 8% (▼3) 6 Minnesota Wild (▲2) 5% (▲1) 7 (tie) Montreal Canadiens 4% (▼1) 7 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1) 4% (▼2) 7 (tie) Utah Mammoth (▲4) 4% (▲2) 10 (tie) Boston Bruins 3% 10 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1) 3% (▲1) 10 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1) 3% (▲1) 13 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼2) 2% 13 (tie) New York Islanders (▼2) 2% 13 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲5) 2% (▲1) 13 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▼2) 2% 13 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼5) 2% (▼2) 18 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼7) 1% (▼1) 18 (tie) Los Angeles Kings 1% 18 (tie) Nashville Predators 1% 18 (tie) San Jose Sharks 1% 18 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲5) 1% (▲1) 23 (tie) Calgary Flames <1% 23 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks <1% 23 (tie) Florida Panthers <1% 23 (tie) New York Rangers <1% 23 (tie) New Jersey Devils <1% 23 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers <1% 23 (tie) St. Louis Blues <1% 23 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs <1% 23 (tie) Vancouver Canucks <1% 23 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼5) <1% (▼1)