It has been a bit of a somber week for us north of the border. After the high-octane thrill of seeing NHL stars back on the Olympic stage in Milan, coming home with two silver medals feels like a polite Canadian tragedy. Watching both our men’s and women’s squads push the Americans to overtime in the gold medal games, only to have Jack Hughes and Megan Keller provide the heartbreak, is a tough pill to swallow—especially with Sidney Crosby watching the men’s final from the sidelines due to that late-tournament injury. But with the Olympic torch extinguished, the focus shifts back to the grind of the NHL season, and the data shows that the post-Olympic fatigue is already starting to shake up the standings.
The Top 5
1. Colorado (1st, 1603)
The Avalanche remain the undisputed juggernauts of the league. Despite a head-to-head loss to Minnesota this week, their underlying metrics are so strong that they still hold an 18% chance to hoist the Cup. When Nathan MacKinnon is playing at this level, they are nearly impossible to dethrone from the top spot.
2. Tampa Bay (2nd, 1582)
It was a rocky week for the Bolts, highlighted by a lopsided 6-2 loss to Buffalo. While they still sit comfortably at #2, their grip on the Atlantic Division has loosened, with their division win odds sliding to 70%. Still, with a Cup win probability of 11%, nobody is counting out the veterans in Florida.
3. Carolina (3rd, +1, 1576)
The Hurricanes are surging. A massive 5-4 win over Tampa Bay helped propel them up the rankings this week. They are the most dominant force in the Metropolitan right now, boasting an 84% chance to finish as division champions.
4. Buffalo (4th, +1, 1572)
Is it finally happening in Buffalo? The Sabres were the story of the week, taking down both Tampa Bay and Florida. Their playoff odds have skyrocketed to 95%, and for the first time in over a decade, the “City of Good Neighbors” is looking like a legitimate Cup contender with an 8% chance at the title.
5. Dallas (5th, -2, 1569)
The Stars took a bit of a tumble after a loss to Seattle, but they remain a statistical powerhouse. Even with the slight drop in rank, they still hold a 10% chance to win the Cup, second only to Colorado in the West.
Biggest Risers
Nashville (18th, +6, 1490): The Predators are howling again! A massive six-spot jump this week has reignited their playoff hopes, which now sit at 41%.
Ottawa (10th, +3, 1523): The Sens have cracked the Top 10. Despite a close OT loss to Detroit, they rallied to beat Toronto 5-2, proving they belong in the conversation.
NY Islanders (14th, +3, 1509): The Isles had a perfect week of grit, securing OT wins against Montreal and Columbus before beating Florida. Their playoff odds jumped a staggering 20 points to 79%.
Biggest Fallers
Toronto (20th, -5, 1486): It was a week to forget in the 6ix. After getting dismantled by Florida, Tampa, and Ottawa, the Leafs’ playoff odds have cratered to a dismal 3%.
Los Angeles (24th, -4, 1478): An 8-1 drubbing at the hands of Edmonton was the low point of a week that saw the Kings slide further away from a guaranteed Pacific spot.
Columbus (13th, -3, 1514): A tough week of OT losses has seen the Blue Jackets’ playoff security take a major hit, dropping 18 points to 34%.
Division Dogfights
Atlantic
Tampa Bay is still the favorite, but Buffalo’s recent hot streak has made this a legitimate race. The Sabres now have a 15% chance to steal the division crown. Meanwhile, Montreal and Detroit are essentially neck-and-neck for the third spot, both sitting at 91% and 77% playoff odds respectively.
Central
Colorado owns this division with an 88% win probability. The real fight is for the runner-up spot between Dallas and Minnesota. The Wild had a mixed week, beating Colorado but losing to St. Louis, keeping them at a 1% division win chance but a near-lock for the playoffs at >99%.
Metropolitan
Carolina has essentially checked out from the pack with an 84% chance to win the Metro. The drama here is the Islanders’ late-season push; their three-win week has them looking like a lock for the postseason, leaving Washington (22% playoff odds) and Columbus (34%) to fight for the scraps.
Pacific
This is the wildest race in the league! Vegas’s lead is shrinking (now 42% to win the division) as Anaheim makes a monumental charge. The Ducks’ win odds for the Pacific jumped from 13% to 30% this week. With Edmonton (56% playoff odds) and Seattle (63%) struggling for consistency, the Ducks are suddenly the hottest team on the West Coast.
Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.
The top 5
1. Colorado Avalanche (1603, ▼1)
Record: 39-10-9, 1st in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 76% (▲4)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 18%
Last week: 2-1-0
- February 25: Won 4-2 @ Utah Mammoth (16th, 1503)
- February 26: Lost 5-2 vs. Minnesota Wild (8th, 1528)
- February 28: Won 3-1 vs. Chicago Blackhawks (29th, 1438)
Next week:
- March 2: @ Los Angeles Kings (24th, 1478)
- March 3: @ Anaheim Ducks (25th, 1475)
- March 6: @ Dallas Stars (5th, 1569)
- March 8: vs. Minnesota Wild (8th, 1528)
2. Tampa Bay Lightning (1582, ▼11)
Record: 38-16-4, 1st in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 8% (▼9)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 11% (▼3)
Last week: 1-2-0
- February 25: Won 4-2 vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (20th, 1486)
- February 26: Lost 5-4 @ Carolina Hurricanes (3rd, 1576)
- February 28: Lost 6-2 vs. Buffalo Sabres (4th, 1572)
Next week:
- March 3: @ Minnesota Wild (8th, 1528)
- March 5: @ Winnipeg Jets (20th, 1486)
- March 7: @ Toronto Maple Leafs (20th, 1486)
- March 8: @ Buffalo Sabres (4th, 1572)
3. Carolina Hurricanes ▲1 (1576, ▲13)
Record: 38-15-6, 1st in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99% (▲1)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 8% (▲4)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 11% (▲2)
Last week: 2-0-0
- February 26: Won 5-4 vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (2nd, 1582)
- February 28: Won 5-2 vs. Detroit Red Wings (11th, 1515)
Next week:
- March 2: @ Seattle Kraken (17th, 1497)
- March 4: @ Vancouver Canucks (32nd, 1388)
- March 6: @ Edmonton Oilers (19th, 1487)
- March 7: @ Calgary Flames (26th, 1474)
4. Buffalo Sabres ▲1 (1572, ▲22)
Record: 35-19-6, 2nd in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 95% (▲12)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲3)
Last week: 3-0-0
- February 25: Won 2-1 @ New Jersey Devils (29th, 1438)
- February 27: Won 3-2 @ Florida Panthers (23rd, 1479)
- February 28: Won 6-2 @ Tampa Bay Lightning (2nd, 1582)
Next week:
- March 3: vs. Vegas Golden Knights (11th, 1515)
- March 5: @ Pittsburgh Penguins (6th, 1551)
- March 7: vs. Nashville Predators (18th, 1490)
- March 8: vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (2nd, 1582)
5. Dallas Stars ▼2 (1569, ▲2)
Record: 36-14-9, 2nd in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 7% (▲2)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▲1)
Last week: 2-0-0
- February 25: Won 4-1 vs. Seattle Kraken (17th, 1497)
- February 28: Won in OT 3-2 vs. Nashville Predators (18th, 1490)
Next week:
- March 2: @ Vancouver Canucks (32nd, 1388)
- March 3: @ Calgary Flames (26th, 1474)
- March 6: vs. Colorado Avalanche (1st, 1603)
- March 8: vs. Chicago Blackhawks (29th, 1438)
Overall Ratings
1 Colorado Avalanche 1603 (▼1) 2 Tampa Bay Lightning 1582 (▼11) 3 Carolina Hurricanes (▲1) 1576 (▲13) 4 Buffalo Sabres (▲1) 1572 (▲22) 5 Dallas Stars (▼2) 1569 (▲2) 6 Pittsburgh Penguins 1551 (▲9) 7 Montreal Canadiens 1543 (▲4) 8 Minnesota Wild 1528 (▼7) 9 Boston Bruins 1524 (▼1) 10 Ottawa Senators (▲3) 1523 (▲7) 11 (tie) Detroit Red Wings 1515 (▼5) 11 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights 1515 (▼5) 13 Columbus Blue Jackets (▼3) 1514 (▼8) 14 New York Islanders (▲3) 1509 (▲9) 15 Washington Capitals (▲2) 1507 (▲7) 16 Utah Mammoth (▼2) 1503 (▼8) 17 Seattle Kraken (▼1) 1497 (▼7) 18 Nashville Predators (▲6) 1490 (▲9) 19 Edmonton Oilers 1487 (▼7) 20 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼5) 1486 (▼20) 20 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲1) 1486 22 Philadelphia Flyers (▲1) 1484 (▲2) 23 Florida Panthers (▼1) 1479 (▼6) 24 Los Angeles Kings (▼4) 1478 (▼9) 25 Anaheim Ducks (▲1) 1475 (▲5) 26 Calgary Flames (▼1) 1474 (▲2) 27 St. Louis Blues 1467 (▲9) 28 San Jose Sharks 1452 29 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1) 1438 (▲1) 29 (tie) New Jersey Devils 1438 (▼2) 31 New York Rangers 1419 (▲2) 32 Vancouver Canucks 1388 (▼4)
Chances of Winning Division
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes 84% (▲5) 2 Pittsburgh Penguins 12% (▼3) 3 New York Islanders 4% (▲1) 4 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1) <1% (▼3) 4 (tie) New York Rangers (▲1) <1% 4 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1) <1% 4 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1) <1% 4 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲1) <1%
Atlantic Division
1 Tampa Bay Lightning 70% (▼14) 2 Buffalo Sabres (▲1) 15% (▲10) 3 Montreal Canadiens (▼1) 10% (▲3) 4 Detroit Red Wings 3% 5 Boston Bruins 2% 6 (tie) Florida Panthers <1% 6 (tie) Ottawa Senators <1% 6 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs <1%
Central Division
1 Colorado Avalanche 88% 2 Dallas Stars 11% (▲3) 3 Minnesota Wild 1% (▼2) 4 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks <1% 4 (tie) Nashville Predators <1% 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues <1% 4 (tie) Utah Mammoth <1% 4 (tie) Winnipeg Jets <1%
Pacific Division
1 Vegas Golden Knights 42% (▼6) 2 Anaheim Ducks (▲1) 30% (▲17) 3 Seattle Kraken (▼1) 12% (▼5) 4 Edmonton Oilers 8% (▼4) 5 San Jose Sharks (▲1) 4% (▲1) 6 Los Angeles Kings (▼1) 3% (▼4) 7 (tie) Calgary Flames <1% 7 (tie) Vancouver Canucks <1%
Making the Playoffs
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes >99% (▲1) 2 Pittsburgh Penguins 91% (▲5) 3 New York Islanders 79% (▲20) 4 Columbus Blue Jackets 34% (▼18) 5 Washington Capitals 22% (▼1) 6 Philadelphia Flyers 13% (▼1) 7 New Jersey Devils 1% (▼1) 8 New York Rangers <1%
Atlantic Division
1 Tampa Bay Lightning >99% 2 Buffalo Sabres (▲1) 95% (▲12) 3 Montreal Canadiens (▼1) 91% (▲2) 4 Detroit Red Wings 77% (▼1) 5 Boston Bruins 63% (▼3) 6 Ottawa Senators 27% (▲4) 7 Florida Panthers (▲1) 4% (▼4) 8 Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1) 3% (▼15)
Central Division
1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche >99% 1 (tie) Dallas Stars >99% 1 (tie) Minnesota Wild >99% 4 Utah Mammoth 73% (▼7) 5 Nashville Predators 41% (▲11) 6 Winnipeg Jets 7% 7 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks 1% (▼1) 7 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲1) 1%
Pacific Division
1 Vegas Golden Knights 90% (▼1) 2 Anaheim Ducks (▲1) 85% (▲19) 3 Seattle Kraken (▼1) 63% (▼8) 4 Edmonton Oilers 56% (▼8) 5 San Jose Sharks (▲1) 40% (▲6) 6 Los Angeles Kings (▼1) 39% (▼12) 7 Calgary Flames 4% (▼1) 8 Vancouver Canucks <1%
Winning the President’s Trophy
1 Colorado Avalanche 76% (▲4) 2 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲2) 8% (▲4) 2 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning 8% (▼9) 4 Dallas Stars (▼1) 7% (▲2) 5 Minnesota Wild 1% (▼1)
Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.
Winning the Stanley Cup
1 Colorado Avalanche 18% 2 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲1) 11% (▲2) 2 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning 11% (▼3) 4 Dallas Stars (▼1) 10% (▲1) 5 Buffalo Sabres 8% (▲3) 6 Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1) 6% (▲1) 7 Montreal Canadiens (▼2) 5% 8 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▼3) 4% (▼1) 8 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲1) 4% 10 Boston Bruins 3% 11 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲6) 2% (▲1) 11 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1) 2% (▼1) 11 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼1) 2% (▼1) 11 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲4) 2% 11 (tie) New York Islanders (▲4) 2% 11 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▼1) 2% (▼1) 11 (tie) Utah Mammoth (▼1) 2% (▼1) 18 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼1) 1% 18 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼1) 1% 18 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▼1) 1% 18 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼1) 1% 18 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼1) 1% 23 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲2) <1% 23 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲2) <1% 23 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲2) <1% 23 (tie) New York Rangers (▲2) <1% 23 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲2) <1% 23 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼6) <1% (▼1) 23 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲2) <1% 23 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼6) <1% (▼1) 23 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲2) <1% 23 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲2) <1%