Happy Groundhog Day, hockey fans! While Punxsutawney Phil is busy checking for his shadow, the NHL is staring down a much more imposing figure: the five-ringed shadow of the Winter Olympics. With the final games before the international break set for February 5th and the league not resuming play until February 25th, teams are desperate to head into the hiatus on a high note. Whether we get six more weeks of winter or an early spring, these rankings are heating up!
The Elite Five
Despite some turbulence this week, the heavyweights are largely holding their ground at the top of the mountain.
- Colorado (1, 1610): Still the kings of the hill, though they took a few uncharacteristic lumps this week. Their Cup odds remain a league-high 19%.
- Tampa Bay (2, 1589): The Bolts are surging, closing the gap on the top spot. They are virtually locks for the postseason with 99% playoff odds.
- Dallas (3, 1564): A steady, professional week keeps the Stars in the bronze position. Their consistency is reflected in a >99% playoff probability.
- Carolina (4, 1551): The Canes are playing lockdown hockey, maintaining their spot as the Metropolitan’s gold standard with 7% Cup odds.
- Buffalo (4, +1, 1551): The Sabres have officially crashed the party! By jumping into a tie for fourth, Buffalo now sees their playoff chances sitting at a strong 85%.
Biggest Risers
If these teams saw their shadows today, they certainly didn’t hide. It’s been a blistering week for a few unexpected squads.
- Columbus (12, +8, 1510): The Blue Jackets are the story of the week! A massive 8-spot jump has completely revitalized their season, moving their playoff odds to 41%.
- Seattle (15, +7, 1503): The Kraken are finding their sea legs at exactly the right time, climbing seven spots with a 67% chance to play in the spring.
- Montreal (8, +5, 1530): The Habs are making a legitimate push, leaping into the Top 10 with an impressive 85% chance to make the dance.
- Ottawa (11, +5, 1513): The Senators are refusing to go quietly, putting together a string of wins that keeps their slim hopes alive.
Biggest Fallers
For every riser, someone has to slide down the icy slope. These teams are looking for answers before the Olympic break.
- Florida (19, -9, 1497): A disastrous week for the Panthers, who tumbled nine spots. Their playoff odds cratered by 31 points, landing at just 18%.
- Toronto (22, -8, 1489): It’s getting late early in Toronto. An 8-spot drop has the Leafs facing a steep climb with only 10% playoff odds remaining.
- Detroit (10, -4, 1517): A tough stretch saw the Wings slip out of the top tier, though they remain in a solid playoff position at 78%.
- Vegas (12, -4, 1510): The Golden Knights are feeling the heat, as their lead in the Pacific is suddenly under siege.
Division Dogfights
Atlantic: Tampa’s Kingdom
Tampa Bay has effectively seized control here, with their division win odds jumping to 77%. While Montreal and Buffalo are surging, Detroit is sliding in the opposite direction, making the race for the remaining guaranteed spots a total free-for-all.
Central: Colorado’s Castle
Colorado holds a massive 93% chance to win the division, but don’t tell Dallas or Minnesota. The Wild have climbed to the 7th overall rank, ensuring that while the Avalanche might lead, they certainly can’t rest.
Metropolitan: Canes and Chaos
Carolina remains the favorite at 68%, but the real news is the charge from Pittsburgh (24% win odds) and the rapid ascent of Columbus. Even the Islanders are hanging tough in 3rd, making this the most defensive-minded dogfight in the league.
Pacific: The Wild West
This is easily the most volatile division. Vegas saw their win odds plummet by 20% this week, leaving the door wide open for Edmonton (25% win odds), Seattle (15%), and a surging Los Angeles Kings squad (16%).
Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.
The top 5
1. Colorado Avalanche (1610, ▼11)
Record: 36-8-9, 1st in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 81% (▼10)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 19% (▼3)
Last week: 1-2-0
- January 28: Lost 5-2 @ Ottawa Senators (11th, 1513)
- January 29: Lost 7-3 @ Montreal Canadiens (8th, 1530)
- January 31: Won 5-0 @ Detroit Red Wings (10th, 1517)
Next week:
- February 2: vs. Detroit Red Wings (10th, 1517)
- February 4: vs. San Jose Sharks (27th, 1463)
2. Tampa Bay Lightning (1589, ▲8)
Record: 35-14-4, 1st in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 99% (▲1)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 11% (▲6)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 13% (▲2)
Last week: 3-0-0
- January 26: Won 2-0 vs. Utah Mammoth (18th, 1499)
- January 29: Won 4-1 vs. Winnipeg Jets (21st, 1491)
- February 1: Won in SO 6-5 vs. Boston Bruins (9th, 1525)
Next week:
- February 3: vs. Buffalo Sabres (4th, 1551)
- February 5: vs. Florida Panthers (19th, 1497)
3. Dallas Stars (1564, ▲14)
Record: 32-14-9, 3rd in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99% (▲1)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 3% (▲2)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲1)
Last week: 3-0-0
- January 27: Won 4-3 @ St. Louis Blues (26th, 1469)
- January 29: Won in SO 5-4 @ Vegas Golden Knights (12th, 1510)
- January 31: Won 3-2 @ Utah Mammoth (18th, 1499)
Next week:
- February 2: vs. Winnipeg Jets (21st, 1491)
- February 4: vs. St. Louis Blues (26th, 1469)
4 (tie). Buffalo Sabres ▲1 (1551, ▲5)
Record: 31-18-5, 5th in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 85% (▲6)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▲1)
Last week: 2-1-0
- January 27: Won 7-4 @ Toronto Maple Leafs (22nd, 1489)
- January 29: Won 4-1 vs. Los Angeles Kings (16th, 1501)
- January 31: Lost 4-2 vs. Montreal Canadiens (8th, 1530)
Next week:
- February 2: @ Florida Panthers (19th, 1497)
- February 3: @ Tampa Bay Lightning (2nd, 1589)
- February 5: vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (6th, 1542)
4 (tie). Carolina Hurricanes (1551, ▲4)
Record: 34-15-6, 1st in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 98% (▲2)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 2% (▲1)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 7%
Last week: 2-0-1
- January 29: Won 5-4 vs. Utah Mammoth (18th, 1499)
- January 31: Lost in OT 4-3 @ Washington Capitals (20th, 1493)
- February 1: Won in OT 3-2 vs. Los Angeles Kings (16th, 1501)
Next week:
- February 3: vs. Ottawa Senators (11th, 1513)
- February 5: @ New York Rangers (31st, 1423)
Overall Ratings
1 Colorado Avalanche 1610 (▼11) 2 Tampa Bay Lightning 1589 (▲8) 3 Dallas Stars 1564 (▲14) 4 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1) 1551 (▲5) 4 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes 1551 (▲4) 6 Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1) 1542 (▲10) 7 Minnesota Wild (▲2) 1536 (▲12) 8 Montreal Canadiens (▲5) 1530 (▲17) 9 Boston Bruins (▲2) 1525 (▲5) 10 Detroit Red Wings (▼4) 1517 (▼18) 11 Ottawa Senators (▲5) 1513 (▲15) 12 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲8) 1510 (▲22) 12 (tie) Edmonton Oilers 1510 (▼4) 12 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼4) 1510 (▼16) 15 Seattle Kraken (▲7) 1503 (▲23) 16 Los Angeles Kings (▲3) 1501 (▲5) 17 New York Islanders (▲3) 1500 (▲12) 18 Utah Mammoth (▼4) 1499 (▼9) 19 Florida Panthers (▼9) 1497 (▼26) 20 Washington Capitals (▼4) 1493 (▼5) 21 Winnipeg Jets (▲2) 1491 (▲12) 22 Toronto Maple Leafs (▼7) 1489 (▼15) 23 Nashville Predators (▲3) 1482 (▲12) 24 Philadelphia Flyers (▼6) 1475 (▼22) 25 Calgary Flames 1473 (▲1) 26 St. Louis Blues (▼2) 1469 (▼7) 27 San Jose Sharks (▲2) 1463 (▲2) 28 Anaheim Ducks 1462 (▼6) 29 New Jersey Devils (▼2) 1454 (▼15) 30 Chicago Blackhawks 1435 (▼10) 31 New York Rangers 1423 (▼16) 32 Vancouver Canucks 1401 (▲2)
Chances of Winning Division
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes 68% 2 Pittsburgh Penguins 24% (▲3) 3 New York Islanders 5% 4 Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1) 2% (▲1) 5 (tie) New York Rangers (▲3) <1% 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils <1% (▼1) 5 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼1) <1% (▼3) 5 (tie) Washington Capitals <1% (▼1)
Atlantic Division
1 Tampa Bay Lightning 77% (▲13) 2 Buffalo Sabres (▲1) 9% (▼1) 3 Montreal Canadiens (▲1) 7% (▲3) 4 Detroit Red Wings (▼2) 4% (▼13) 5 Boston Bruins 3% 6 (tie) Florida Panthers <1% (▼2) 6 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1) <1% 6 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1) <1%
Central Division
1 Colorado Avalanche 93% (▼5) 2 Dallas Stars 5% (▲3) 3 Minnesota Wild 2% (▲1) 4 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks <1% 4 (tie) Nashville Predators <1% 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues <1% 4 (tie) Utah Mammoth <1% 4 (tie) Winnipeg Jets <1%
Pacific Division
1 Vegas Golden Knights 29% (▼21) 2 Edmonton Oilers 25% (▲5) 3 Los Angeles Kings (▲1) 16% (▲7) 4 Seattle Kraken (▲2) 15% (▲11) 5 Anaheim Ducks (▼2) 8% (▼3) 6 San Jose Sharks (▼1) 7% (▲1) 7 (tie) Calgary Flames <1% 7 (tie) Vancouver Canucks <1%
Making the Playoffs
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes 98% (▲2) 2 Pittsburgh Penguins 88% (▲8) 3 New York Islanders 58% (▲12) 4 Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2) 41% (▲19) 5 Washington Capitals 24% (▲1) 6 Philadelphia Flyers (▼2) 14% (▼28) 7 New Jersey Devils 10% (▼10) 8 New York Rangers <1% (▼1)
Atlantic Division
1 Tampa Bay Lightning 99% (▲1) 2 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1) 85% (▲6) 2 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲2) 85% (▲22) 4 Detroit Red Wings (▼2) 78% (▼11) 5 Boston Bruins 70% (▲12) 6 Ottawa Senators (▲2) 21% (▲10) 7 Florida Panthers (▼1) 18% (▼31) 8 Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1) 10% (▼12)
Central Division
1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche >99% 1 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲1) >99% (▲1) 3 Minnesota Wild 99% (▲2) 4 Utah Mammoth 62% (▼14) 5 Nashville Predators 30% (▲6) 6 Winnipeg Jets 10% (▲3) 7 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks 2% (▼4) 7 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲1) 2% (▼3)
Pacific Division
1 Vegas Golden Knights 81% (▼11) 2 Edmonton Oilers 78% (▲2) 3 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1) 67% (▲9) 3 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲3) 67% (▲26) 5 Anaheim Ducks (▼2) 52% (▼12) 6 San Jose Sharks (▼1) 46% (▼3) 7 Calgary Flames 5% (▼1) 8 Vancouver Canucks <1%
Winning the President’s Trophy
1 Colorado Avalanche 81% (▼10) 2 Tampa Bay Lightning 11% (▲6) 3 Dallas Stars 3% (▲2) 4 Carolina Hurricanes (▼1) 2% (▲1) 5 Minnesota Wild (▲1) 1% (▲1)
Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.
Winning the Stanley Cup
1 Colorado Avalanche 19% (▼3) 2 Tampa Bay Lightning 13% (▲2) 3 Dallas Stars 8% (▲1) 4 Carolina Hurricanes (▼1) 7% 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres 6% (▲1) 5 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins 6% (▲1) 7 Minnesota Wild (▲2) 5% (▲1) 8 Montreal Canadiens (▲2) 4% (▲1) 9 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲1) 3% 9 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼4) 3% (▼2) 9 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲1) 3% 9 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲9) 3% (▲2) 9 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼4) 3% (▼2) 14 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲4) 2% (▲1) 14 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1) 2% 14 (tie) New York Islanders (▲1) 2% 14 (tie) Utah Mammoth (▼4) 2% (▼1) 18 (tie) Anaheim Ducks 1% 18 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼8) 1% (▼2) 18 (tie) Nashville Predators 1% 18 (tie) Ottawa Senators 1% 18 (tie) San Jose Sharks 1% 18 (tie) Washington Capitals 1% 24 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲3) <1% 24 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲3) <1% 24 (tie) New York Rangers (▲3) <1% 24 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼6) <1% (▼1) 24 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼9) <1% (▼2) 24 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲3) <1% 24 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼6) <1% (▼1) 24 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲3) <1% 24 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲3) <1%