Listen up, puck-heads! While the rest of North America was busy digging their cars out of record-breaking snowdrifts and shivering in a Polar Vortex that saw wind chills hit -30, the NHL was heating up to a boiling point! We’re talking about a weekend where over 185 million people were under winter alerts, yet these gladiators on ice were out there delivering absolute carnage!
If you thought the ice storm in Georgia was intense, you haven’t seen the shift in these rankings. We’ve got teams rising from the depths and others sliding faster than an 18-wheeler on an icy Trans-Canada. Grab your coffee, turn up the heat, and let’s dive into the carnage!
THE ELITE ELITE: THE TOP 5
The air is thin at the top, and for these teams, the “extreme cold” is just their natural habitat.
- Colorado (1, 1621): The Avalanche are a force of nature. Even with a slight rating dip, they hold a 99% chance of making the dance and a staggering 22% chance to hoist the Cup. They are the gold standard.
- Tampa Bay (2, 1581): The Bolts are as steady as a block of permafrost. They’ve locked down a 98% playoff probability and show no signs of cracking under the pressure.
- Dallas (3, 1550): Deep in the heart of Texas, where the power grids were struggling, the Stars kept the lights on. They remain a lock at 99% playoff odds.
- Carolina (4, 1547): The Canes are a nightmare for the rest of the Metro. They’re sitting pretty with a 96% chance to play spring hockey.
- Buffalo (5, +4, 1546): BOOM! The Sabres just kicked the door down! A massive four-spot jump into the top five. Buffalo is officially dangerous, seeing their playoff odds skyrocket by 19% this week alone!
THE BIGGEST RISERS: CLIMBING THE GLACIER
While everyone else was hibernating, these squads were out there hunting!
- Pittsburgh (7, +7, 1532): Absolute FIRE! The Penguins are the biggest story of the week, jumping seven spots! Sid and the boys are defying the aging process, boosting their playoff hopes by 19% in a single week.
- Philadelphia (18, +4, 1497): Don’t count out the Broad Street Bullies! They fought through the freeze to gain 12 rating points and climb four spots.
- Seattle (22, +4, 1480): The Kraken are emerging from the deep! A four-spot climb keeps their postseason dreams alive at 41%.
THE BIGGEST FALLERS: SLIPPING ON BLACK ICE
Some teams forgot to put the winter tires on, and it shows. The carnage is real.
- Edmonton (12, -7, 1514): TOTAL COLLAPSE! The Oilers hit a patch of black ice and spun out, dropping seven spots and losing 20 rating points. Their Cup odds took a 2% hit, and fans are screaming for answers!
- NY Islanders (20, -5, 1488): A disaster on Long Island. They plummeted five spots and saw their playoff odds crater by 24%. That’s not just a slump; that’s a freefall!
- Calgary (25, -5, 1472): The Flames are getting extinguished. A five-spot drop has them sitting at a measly 6% chance to make the playoffs.
DIVISION DOGFIGHTS: THE WAR FOR THE CROWN
The divisional boundaries are turning into trenches. Here is how the landscape shifted after a weekend of blizzard-fueled hockey:
Atlantic Division
It’s a three-headed monster! Tampa Bay (2, 1581) holds the best win odds at 64%, but Detroit (6, +2, 1535) is the current divisional leader in the odds race at 17% (up 6%). Meanwhile, Buffalo (5, +4, 1546) is the dark horse charging from behind. Toronto (15, -4, 1504) is in serious trouble, with their playoff odds tanking by 23%!
Central Division
Colorado (1, 1621) has a literal vice grip on this division with 98% win odds. Minnesota (9, -3, 1524) and Dallas (3, 1550) are just fighting for the scraps at this point. The rest of the division—Chicago, St. Louis, Winnipeg—are effectively frozen out of the title race with <1% win odds.
Metropolitan Division
Carolina (4, 1547) is the king of the hill with 68% win odds, but look out for Pittsburgh (7, +7, 1532)! The Pens saw their division win odds jump by 10% this week to a respectable 21%. The Islanders are the biggest losers here, seeing their division hopes nearly vanish.
Pacific Division
Vegas (8, -2, 1526) still leads the pack with 50% win odds, but they’re bleeding. Edmonton (12, -7, 1514) dropped a massive 10% in their division win probability. Keep an eye on Anaheim (28, +1, 1468)—their odds to win the Pacific jumped by 8%, the biggest shift in the division!
Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.
The top 5
1. Colorado Avalanche (1621, ▼5)
Record: 35-6-9, 1st in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 91% (▲1)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 22%
Last week: 2-1-1
- January 19: Won 5-2 vs. Washington Capitals (16th, 1498)
- January 21: Lost in SO 2-1 vs. Anaheim Ducks (28th, 1468)
- January 23: Lost 7-3 vs. Philadelphia Flyers (18th, 1497)
- January 25: Won 4-1 @ Toronto Maple Leafs (15th, 1504)
Next week:
- January 28: @ Ottawa Senators (16th, 1498)
- January 29: @ Montreal Canadiens (13th, 1513)
- January 31: @ Detroit Red Wings (6th, 1535)
2. Tampa Bay Lightning (1581, ▼7)
Record: 32-14-4, 2nd in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 98%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 5% (▼1)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 11% (▼1)
Last week: 2-1-0
- January 20: Won 4-1 vs. San Jose Sharks (29th, 1461)
- January 23: Won in SO 2-1 @ Chicago Blackhawks (30th, 1445)
- January 24: Lost 8-5 @ Columbus Blue Jackets (20th, 1488)
Next week:
- January 26: vs. Utah Mammoth (14th, 1508)
- January 29: vs. Winnipeg Jets (23rd, 1479)
- February 1: vs. Boston Bruins (11th, 1520)
3. Dallas Stars (1550, ▲3)
Record: 29-14-9, 3rd in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 99% (▲1)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 1%
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲1)
Last week: 2-1-0
- January 20: Won 6-2 vs. Boston Bruins (11th, 1520)
- January 22: Lost 1-0 @ Columbus Blue Jackets (20th, 1488)
- January 23: Won 3-2 vs. St. Louis Blues (24th, 1476)
Next week:
- January 27: @ St. Louis Blues (24th, 1476)
- January 29: @ Vegas Golden Knights (8th, 1526)
- January 31: @ Utah Mammoth (14th, 1508)
4. Carolina Hurricanes ▲1 (1547, ▲12)
Record: 32-15-5, 1st in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 96% (▲2)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 1%
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲1)
Last week: 2-0-1
- January 19: Won 2-1 vs. Buffalo Sabres (5th, 1546)
- January 22: Lost in SO 4-3 vs. Chicago Blackhawks (30th, 1445)
- January 24: Won 4-1 @ Ottawa Senators (16th, 1498)
Next week:
- January 29: vs. Utah Mammoth (14th, 1508)
- January 31: @ Washington Capitals (16th, 1498)
- February 1: vs. Los Angeles Kings (19th, 1496)
5. Buffalo Sabres ▲2 (1546, ▲15)
Record: 29-17-5, 3rd in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 79% (▲14)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 5% (▲1)
Last week: 3-1-0
- January 19: Lost 2-1 @ Carolina Hurricanes (4th, 1547)
- January 20: Won 5-3 @ Nashville Predators (26th, 1470)
- January 22: Won 4-2 @ Montreal Canadiens (13th, 1513)
- January 24: Won 5-0 @ New York Islanders (20th, 1488)
Next week:
- January 27: @ Toronto Maple Leafs (15th, 1504)
- January 29: vs. Los Angeles Kings (19th, 1496)
- January 31: vs. Montreal Canadiens (13th, 1513)
Overall Ratings
1 Colorado Avalanche 1621 (▼5) 2 Tampa Bay Lightning 1581 (▼7) 3 Dallas Stars 1550 (▲3) 4 Carolina Hurricanes (▲1) 1547 (▲12) 5 Buffalo Sabres (▲2) 1546 (▲15) 6 Detroit Red Wings (▲3) 1535 (▲10) 7 Pittsburgh Penguins (▲8) 1532 (▲31) 8 Vegas Golden Knights (▼4) 1526 (▼17) 9 Minnesota Wild 1524 (▼1) 10 Florida Panthers (▼1) 1523 (▼2) 11 Boston Bruins (▲2) 1520 (▲8) 12 Edmonton Oilers (▼6) 1514 (▼20) 13 Montreal Canadiens (▼1) 1513 (▼8) 14 Utah Mammoth (▲1) 1508 (▲7) 15 Toronto Maple Leafs (▼7) 1504 (▼23) 16 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1) 1498 (▲2) 16 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼2) 1498 (▼4) 18 Philadelphia Flyers (▲8) 1497 (▲22) 19 Los Angeles Kings 1496 (▲6) 20 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲4) 1488 (▲9) 20 (tie) New York Islanders (▼2) 1488 (▼7) 22 Seattle Kraken (▲1) 1480 (▼3) 23 Winnipeg Jets (▼1) 1479 (▼8) 24 St. Louis Blues (▼3) 1476 (▼12) 25 Calgary Flames (▼6) 1472 (▼18) 26 Nashville Predators (▼1) 1470 (▼8) 27 New Jersey Devils 1469 (▲11) 28 Anaheim Ducks (▲2) 1468 (▲21) 29 San Jose Sharks 1461 (▲12) 30 Chicago Blackhawks (▲1) 1445 (▲6) 31 New York Rangers (▼4) 1439 (▼19) 32 Vancouver Canucks 1399 (▼11)
Chances of Winning Division
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes 68% (▲2) 2 Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1) 21% (▲11) 3 New York Islanders (▼1) 5% (▼9) 4 Philadelphia Flyers (▲1) 3% 5 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1) 1% (▼1) 5 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲2) 1% 5 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼1) 1% (▼3) 8 New York Rangers <1%
Atlantic Division
1 Tampa Bay Lightning 64% (▼4) 2 Detroit Red Wings 17% (▲7) 3 Buffalo Sabres (▲1) 10% (▲4) 4 Montreal Canadiens (▼1) 4% (▼4) 5 Boston Bruins 3% 6 Florida Panthers (▲1) 2% 7 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1) <1% 7 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼2) <1% (▼3)
Central Division
1 Colorado Avalanche 98% 2 Dallas Stars 2% (▲1) 3 Minnesota Wild (▼1) 1% 4 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks <1% 4 (tie) Nashville Predators <1% 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues <1% 4 (tie) Utah Mammoth <1% 4 (tie) Winnipeg Jets <1%
Pacific Division
1 Vegas Golden Knights 50% (▼13) 2 Edmonton Oilers 20% (▼5) 3 Anaheim Ducks (▲3) 11% (▲10) 4 Los Angeles Kings 9% (▲6) 5 San Jose Sharks 6% (▲4) 6 Seattle Kraken (▼3) 4% 7 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼1) <1% (▼1) 7 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1) <1%
Making the Playoffs
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes 96% (▲2) 2 Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1) 80% (▲26) 3 New York Islanders (▼1) 46% (▼18) 4 Philadelphia Flyers (▲1) 42% (▲14) 5 Washington Capitals (▼1) 23% (▼15) 6 Columbus Blue Jackets 22% (▲1) 7 New Jersey Devils 20% (▲5) 8 New York Rangers 1% (▼6)
Atlantic Division
1 Tampa Bay Lightning 98% 2 Detroit Red Wings 89% (▲9) 3 Buffalo Sabres (▲1) 79% (▲14) 4 Montreal Canadiens (▼1) 63% (▼11) 5 Boston Bruins 58% (▲6) 6 Florida Panthers (▲1) 49% (▲6) 7 Toronto Maple Leafs (▼2) 22% (▼30) 8 Ottawa Senators 11% (▼4)
Central Division
1 Colorado Avalanche >99% 2 Dallas Stars 99% (▲1) 3 Minnesota Wild 97% (▲1) 4 Utah Mammoth 76% (▲11) 5 Nashville Predators 24% (▼13) 6 Winnipeg Jets 7% (▼8) 7 Chicago Blackhawks (▲1) 6% (▲1) 8 St. Louis Blues (▼1) 5% (▼9)
Pacific Division
1 Vegas Golden Knights 92% (▼5) 2 Edmonton Oilers 76% (▼12) 3 Anaheim Ducks (▲3) 64% (▲33) 4 Los Angeles Kings 58% (▲12) 5 San Jose Sharks 49% (▲10) 6 Seattle Kraken (▼3) 41% (▼8) 7 Calgary Flames 6% (▼15) 8 Vancouver Canucks <1%
Winning the President’s Trophy
1 Colorado Avalanche 91% (▲1) 2 Tampa Bay Lightning 5% (▼1) 3 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes 1% 3 (tie) Dallas Stars 1% 3 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲3) 1% (▲1)
Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.
Winning the Stanley Cup
1 Colorado Avalanche 22% 2 Tampa Bay Lightning 11% (▼1) 3 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes 7% (▲1) 3 (tie) Dallas Stars 7% (▲1) 5 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲2) 5% (▲1) 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲2) 5% (▲1) 5 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲8) 5% (▲3) 5 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼2) 5% (▼1) 9 Minnesota Wild (▼2) 4% 10 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲3) 3% (▲1) 10 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼4) 3% (▼2) 10 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲1) 3% 10 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▼3) 3% (▼1) 10 (tie) Utah Mammoth (▲3) 3% (▲1) 15 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼2) 2% 15 (tie) New York Islanders (▼2) 2% 15 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲4) 2% (▲1) 18 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲10) 1% (▲1) 18 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1) 1% 18 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲1) 1% 18 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲10) 1% (▲1) 18 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1) 1% 18 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1) 1% 18 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲1) 1% 18 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼7) 1% (▼2) 18 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼5) 1% (▼1) 27 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼8) <1% (▼1) 27 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1) <1% 27 (tie) New York Rangers (▲1) <1% 27 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼8) <1% (▼1) 27 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1) <1% 27 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼8) <1% (▼1)