LISTEN UP, HOCKEY FANATICS! The 2026 NHL season is hitting the mid-season grind, and the ice is absolutely ON FIRE! We’ve got juggernauts stumbling, dark horses charging, and divisional races that look more like a chaotic pile-up in the crease! Here is your weekly breakdown of who’s king of the mountain and who’s sliding into the abyss!
THE ELITE FIVE: THE KINGS OF THE ICE
- Colorado (1st, 1641) The Avalanche are essentially playing a different sport right now. Even with a microscopic rating dip, they are sitting on a projected 99% chance to make the postseason. They are the gold standard, and everyone else is just fighting for the right to lose to them.
- Dallas (2nd, 1567) The Stars maintained their silver medal position despite a brutal week that saw their rating tank by 22 points. Their Cup odds took a hit—dropping to 8%—but they remain the heaviest heavyweight in the chase pack.
- Tampa Bay (3rd, 1560) The Bolts are SURGING! With a 13-point rating boost, Tampa has clawed their way into the Top 3. Their playoff probability has skyrocketed to 91%, and they look like the terrifying championship-caliber squad of old.
- Minnesota (4th, -1, 1553) The Wild slipped one spot, but don’t let that fool you. They are locked in with 98% playoff odds. They are consistent, they are mean, and they are a nightmare to play against every single night.
- Washington (5th, +2, 1525) The Caps break into the Top 5! Despite some volatility in their metrics, they jumped two spots this week. However, with playoff odds sitting at 57%, the tightrope they’re walking is razor-thin!
BIGGEST RISERS: CLIMBING THE LADDER
- Ottawa (13th, +6, 1508): The Sens are making moves! A six-spot jump puts them within striking distance of the elite. Their playoff odds moved up to 41% as they find their rhythm!
- Toronto (9th, +5, 1518): Never count out the Buds! A massive 5-spot leap into the Top 10 has the 6ix buzzing. They’ve boosted their playoff chances to 37%.
- Nashville (21st, +5, 1480): Smashville is waking up! They gained 12 rating points and jumped 5 spots, desperately trying to claw back into the conversation.
BIGGEST FALLERS: THE ICE IS MELTING
- Winnipeg (28th, -7, 1463): ABSOLUTE CATASTROPHE in Manitoba! The Jets fell 7 spots and their playoff odds have cratered to a measly 9%. The season is slipping away!
- Los Angeles (18th, -5, 1500): The Kings are bleeding out. A 5-spot drop and a loss of 7 rating points has them looking shaky in the middle of the pack.
- NY Islanders (20th, -5, 1492): The Isles are sliding toward the danger zone. They dropped 5 spots this week and need to find an identity—fast!
DIVISION DOGFIGHTS: WAR FOR THE CROWN
Atlantic Division
It is a Tampa Bay world and we’re just living in it! The Bolts have a 48% chance to take the division, while Montreal (7th, +3, 1519) is lurking in the shadows with 18% odds. The middle of this pack is a bloodbath!
Central Division
Stop the fight! Colorado has a 95% lock on this division. Dallas and Minnesota are essentially playing for the “Best of the Rest” title while the Avalanche continue their historic run of dominance.
Metropolitan Division
Chaos reigns! Carolina (12th, -4, 1509) still leads the odds at 29%, but they are fading fast after a 16-point drop in win probability. Philadelphia (16th, +2, 1505) and Pittsburgh (16th, +4, 1505) are surging, turning this into a four-way street fight!
Pacific Division
Vegas (7th, -2, 1519) is the frontrunner at 32%, but they are leaking oil! Edmonton (10th, -4, 1512) is right behind them at 24%, despite a rough week. Keep an eye on Seattle (24th, 1479)—they’re the dark horse gaining ground!
Would you like me to generate a deep-dive scouting report on any of these Top 5 teams?
Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.
The top 5
1. Colorado Avalanche (1641, ▲3)
Record: 31-3-7, 1st in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 93% (▲8)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 24% (▲2)
Last week: 3-1-0
- December 29: Won 5-2 vs. Los Angeles Kings (18th, 1500)
- December 31: Won 6-1 vs. St. Louis Blues (15th, 1506)
- January 3: Won 5-3 @ Carolina Hurricanes (12th, 1509)
- January 4: Lost 2-1 @ Florida Panthers (6th, 1520)
Next week:
- January 6: @ Tampa Bay Lightning (3rd, 1560)
- January 8: vs. Ottawa Senators (13th, 1508)
- January 10: vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (21st, 1480)
2. Dallas Stars (1567, ▼22)
Record: 25-9-8, 2nd in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 99% (▼1)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 3% (▼8)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▼3)
Last week: 0-2-1
- December 31: Lost 4-1 vs. Buffalo Sabres (11th, 1510)
- January 1: Lost 4-3 @ Chicago Blackhawks (30th, 1451)
- January 4: Lost in OT 4-3 vs. Montreal Canadiens (7th, 1519)
Next week:
- January 6: @ Carolina Hurricanes (12th, 1509)
- January 7: @ Washington Capitals (5th, 1525)
- January 10: @ San Jose Sharks (32nd, 1439)
3. Tampa Bay Lightning (1560, ▲13)
Record: 25-13-3, 1st in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 91% (▲7)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 1%
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲2)
Last week: 3-0-0
- December 31: Won in OT 4-3 @ Anaheim Ducks (29th, 1457)
- January 1: Won 5-3 @ Los Angeles Kings (18th, 1500)
- January 3: Won 7-3 @ San Jose Sharks (32nd, 1439)
Next week:
- January 6: vs. Colorado Avalanche (1st, 1641)
- January 10: @ Philadelphia Flyers (16th, 1505)
4. Minnesota Wild ▲1 (1553, ▲15)
Record: 25-10-8, 3rd in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 98% (▲3)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 2% (▲1)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▲1)
Last week: 2-0-2
- December 29: Won 5-2 @ Vegas Golden Knights (7th, 1519)
- December 31: Lost in SO 4-3 @ San Jose Sharks (32nd, 1439)
- January 2: Won 5-2 @ Anaheim Ducks (29th, 1457)
- January 3: Lost in SO 5-4 @ Los Angeles Kings (18th, 1500)
Next week:
- January 5: @ Los Angeles Kings (18th, 1500)
- January 8: @ Seattle Kraken (24th, 1479)
- January 10: vs. New York Islanders (20th, 1492)
5. Washington Capitals ▲1 (1525, ▼11)
Record: 21-15-6, 5th in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 57% (▼16)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 4% (▼1)
Last week: 1-2-1
- December 29: Lost 5-3 @ Florida Panthers (6th, 1520)
- December 31: Won 6-3 vs. New York Rangers (21st, 1480)
- January 1: Lost 4-3 @ Ottawa Senators (13th, 1508)
- January 3: Lost in SO 3-2 vs. Chicago Blackhawks (30th, 1451)
Next week:
- January 5: vs. Anaheim Ducks (29th, 1457)
- January 7: vs. Dallas Stars (2nd, 1567)
- January 9: @ Chicago Blackhawks (30th, 1451)
- January 11: @ Nashville Predators (21st, 1480)
Overall Ratings
1 Colorado Avalanche 1641 (▲3) 2 Dallas Stars 1567 (▼22) 3 Tampa Bay Lightning 1560 (▲13) 4 Minnesota Wild (▲1) 1553 (▲15) 5 Washington Capitals (▲1) 1525 (▼11) 6 Florida Panthers (▲4) 1520 (▲7) 7 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲2) 1519 (▲4) 7 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼3) 1519 (▼27) 9 Toronto Maple Leafs (▲4) 1518 (▲12) 10 Edmonton Oilers (▼3) 1512 (▼11) 11 Buffalo Sabres (▲6) 1510 (▲11) 12 Carolina Hurricanes (▼5) 1509 (▼14) 13 Ottawa Senators (▲2) 1508 (▲5) 14 Detroit Red Wings (▼2) 1507 (▼3) 15 St. Louis Blues (▼1) 1506 (▲1) 16 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲3) 1505 (▲10) 16 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲4) 1505 (▲16) 18 Los Angeles Kings (▼7) 1500 (▼11) 19 Calgary Flames (▼2) 1495 (▼4) 20 New York Islanders (▼4) 1492 (▼9) 21 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲3) 1480 (▲8) 21 (tie) New York Rangers (▲1) 1480 (▲5) 21 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲8) 1480 (▲21) 24 Seattle Kraken (▼1) 1479 (▲6) 25 Boston Bruins (▲3) 1476 (▲12) 26 New Jersey Devils (▼2) 1474 (▲2) 27 Utah Mammoth (▼3) 1465 (▼7) 28 Winnipeg Jets (▼8) 1463 (▼26) 29 Anaheim Ducks (▼5) 1457 (▼15) 30 Chicago Blackhawks (▲1) 1451 (▲14) 31 Vancouver Canucks (▼1) 1448 (▼6) 32 San Jose Sharks 1439 (▲4)
Chances of Winning Division
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes 29% (▼12) 2 Philadelphia Flyers (▲1) 19% (▲7) 3 Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2) 16% (▲11) 4 Washington Capitals (▼2) 15% (▼7) 5 New York Islanders (▼2) 12% 6 New Jersey Devils 4% 7 New York Rangers 3% (▲1) 8 Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1) 2%
Atlantic Division
1 Tampa Bay Lightning 48% (▲10) 2 Montreal Canadiens (▲1) 18% (▲2) 3 Detroit Red Wings (▼1) 9% (▼8) 4 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1) 7% (▼1) 4 (tie) Florida Panthers 7% (▼3) 6 Ottawa Senators 5% (▼1) 7 Toronto Maple Leafs 4% (▲1) 8 Boston Bruins 2%
Central Division
1 Colorado Avalanche 95% (▲8) 2 Dallas Stars 4% (▼8) 3 Minnesota Wild 2% (▲1) 4 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks <1% 4 (tie) Nashville Predators <1% 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues <1% 4 (tie) Utah Mammoth <1% 4 (tie) Winnipeg Jets <1%
Pacific Division
1 Vegas Golden Knights 32% (▼17) 2 Edmonton Oilers 24% (▲3) 3 Los Angeles Kings 16% (▲3) 4 Seattle Kraken (▲1) 12% (▲8) 5 Anaheim Ducks (▼1) 8% (▼1) 6 Calgary Flames 5% (▲3) 7 San Jose Sharks 4% (▲3) 8 Vancouver Canucks (▼1) 1%
Making the Playoffs
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes 74% (▼11) 2 Philadelphia Flyers (▲2) 62% (▲4) 3 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2) 57% (▲21) 3 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼1) 57% (▼16) 5 New York Islanders (▼2) 52% (▼7) 6 New Jersey Devils 28% (▼5) 7 New York Rangers 23% (▼3) 8 Columbus Blue Jackets 21%
Atlantic Division
1 Tampa Bay Lightning 91% (▲7) 2 Montreal Canadiens (▲1) 72% (▲7) 3 Detroit Red Wings (▼1) 58% (▼9) 4 Florida Panthers 51% (▼1) 5 Buffalo Sabres 49% (▲3) 6 Ottawa Senators 41% (▼2) 7 Toronto Maple Leafs 37% (▲6) 8 Boston Bruins 25% (▲5)
Central Division
1 Colorado Avalanche >99% 2 Dallas Stars (▼1) 99% (▼1) 3 Minnesota Wild 98% (▲3) 4 Nashville Predators (▲3) 39% (▲19) 5 St. Louis Blues (▼1) 34% (▲3) 6 Utah Mammoth (▼1) 25% (▼5) 7 Chicago Blackhawks (▲1) 17% (▲10) 8 Winnipeg Jets (▼2) 9% (▼18)
Pacific Division
1 Vegas Golden Knights 78% (▼12) 2 Edmonton Oilers 72% (▼5) 3 Los Angeles Kings 60% (▼4) 4 Seattle Kraken (▲1) 52% (▲13) 5 Anaheim Ducks (▼1) 43% (▼13) 6 Calgary Flames 34% (▲4) 7 San Jose Sharks 28% (▲7) 8 Vancouver Canucks 11% (▼1)
Winning the President’s Trophy
1 Colorado Avalanche 93% (▲8) 2 Dallas Stars 3% (▼8) 3 Minnesota Wild 2% (▲1) 4 Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1) 1%
Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.
Winning the Stanley Cup
1 Colorado Avalanche 24% (▲2) 2 (tie) Dallas Stars 8% (▼3) 2 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1) 8% (▲2) 4 Minnesota Wild (▲1) 6% (▲1) 5 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲4) 4% (▲1) 5 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼2) 4% (▼2) 5 (tie) Washington Capitals 4% (▼1) 8 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲6) 3% (▲1) 8 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▼1) 3% (▼1) 8 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1) 3% 8 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼1) 3% (▼1) 8 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲1) 3% 8 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲6) 3% (▲1) 8 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲6) 3% (▲1) 15 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲4) 2% (▲1) 15 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼6) 2% (▼1) 15 (tie) New York Islanders (▼6) 2% (▼1) 15 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▼1) 2% 15 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲4) 2% (▲1) 15 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲4) 2% (▲1) 15 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1) 2% 22 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼3) 1% 22 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼3) 1% 22 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼3) 1% 22 (tie) New York Rangers (▼3) 1% 22 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼3) 1% 22 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼3) 1% 22 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲8) 1% (▲1) 22 (tie) Utah Mammoth (▼3) 1% 30 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks <1% 30 (tie) Vancouver Canucks <1% 30 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼11) <1% (▼1)