The calendar flips to mid-December, and the NHL has gone from a pleasant skate to a full-blown BATTLE ROYALE! We saw two blockbuster trades this week, but it’s the on-ice carnage that’s rewriting the power rankings. Teams are collapsing under the pressure, while others are making their move. If you’re not climbing, you’re dying!
🏆 THE ELITE FIVE: THE UNYIELDING KINGS
These are the teams who understand that the price of greatness is eternal vigilance. They crush.
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Colorado (1st, 1619) The top seed is locked in, rating up another 5 points. Their Playoff Odds are still >99% and Cup Odds jumped 2% to 18%. Yes, Nashville snagged a shootout point, but the Avs finished the week by stomping the Preds in regulation. This team is a machine, built for spring and beyond. Their Central Division crown is virtually guaranteed with an 81% chance.
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Dallas (2nd, 1571) Uh oh. The Stars hit turbulence, dropping 11 rating points after getting shut out by a surging Florida team. The Cup Odds dipped -1% to 9%. Their 98% playoff probability is safe for now, but they cannot afford to slide as the Wild (7th) suddenly go supernova. They are losing their grip on the Central, where their Division Win chance has plummeted -11% to 15%. Wake up, Dallas!
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Vegas (3rd, +1, 1558) The Golden Knights are back in the top tier! A +1 rank jump and +6 rating points prove the dynasty has fire left in the tank. They took down the Flyers in OT and handled the Blue Jackets. Their Playoff Odds jumped 5% to 93%, and their Cup Odds are up 1% to 8%. They now dominate the Pacific race with a 54% probability.
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Washington (4th, -1, 1557) A terrible week. Dropped 10 rating points and saw their Playoff Odds take a painful -5% hit, now sitting at 84%. A shootout loss to Carolina and a brutal 5-1 loss to Winnipeg is not the performance of a contender. The Hurricanes (8th) are now breathing down their necks in the Metropolitan. The window is closing; the Caps need to find their killer instinct fast.
- Tampa Bay (5th, +1, 1546) The Lightning are back! An explosive +15 rating surge and a huge +9% jump in Playoff Odds to 81%. A massive 8-4 demolition of New Jersey was the highlight. Despite losing a shootout to the Islanders, they solidified their status as an Atlantic power. Their Cup Odds are now 6%. Never, ever count out the Bolts.
🚀 BIGGEST RISERS: LIFT OFF!
MINNESOTA WILD (7th, +5, 1527): MONSTER MOVES! The Wild are the story of the week, vaulting 5 spots with a +20 rating surge and a +17% spike in Playoff Odds to 86%! A HUGE trade for Quinn Hughes and wins against Seattle and a crushing 5-2 victory over division rival Dallas signals they are all-in. They are now officially a Wild Card lock and a major threat in the West.
FLORIDA PANTHERS (13th, +6, 1506): The Panthers woke up, jumping 6 spots! They crushed Dallas with a 4-0 shutout and beat Utah. A +13 rating increase and an +8% Playoff Odds jump to 44% puts them firmly in the Atlantic playoff conversation. Watch out, Toronto!
BUFFALO SABRES (24th, +5, 1478): A huge surge for the Sabres, who gained +18 rating points and saw their Playoff Odds soar by +10% to 22%! They beat Edmonton in OT and took down Vancouver and Seattle. If they can keep this pace, they might surprise some teams in the East.
📉 BIGGEST FALLERS: THE FREE FALL
COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS (27th, -5, 1467): They are absolutely TOAST! A league-worst -21 rating crash and a horrific -20% collapse in Playoff Odds, now at just 17%. Getting crushed 6-3 by Ottawa is the final nail. They have a 1% chance to win the Metro. Get ready for the draft lottery.
TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS (14th, -5, 1504): Panic is setting in. The Leafs dropped 5 spots with a -12 rating plunge and saw their Playoff Odds drop -15% to 37%. An OT loss to San Jose and a 6-3 regulation loss to Edmonton is an embarrassment. Their Division Win chance is only 6%. This team is officially on the hot seat.
PITTSBURGH PENGUINS (10th, -3, 1511): Another veteran team in crisis. The Pens lost 3 spots, -14 rating points, and saw their Playoff Odds drop -14% to 56%. Blown leads and multiple overtime losses, including a shocking 6-5 OT loss to San Jose, are bleeding points. Their Division Win Odds are now only 9%.
💥 DIVISION DOGFIGHTS: BLOOD IN THE WATER
Central Division (The Avalanche Abyss)
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The Colorado Avalanche (1st) maintain total control with a Division Win Odds of 81%, gaining 9% over the previous week. While Dallas stumbles, the Avs’ grasp on the title tightens.
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The Dallas Stars (2nd) saw their chances suffer a major setback, dropping a painful -11% in Win Odds to 15%. A tough week means they are falling out of contention for the top seed.
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The Minnesota Wild (7th, +5), following their massive rise, are starting to appear on the radar. Their Win Odds climbed 2% to a small, but meaningful, 3%. The Wild are making the Central a three-team race for the playoffs, even if the title is out of reach.
Metropolitan Division (The Carolina Surge)
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The Carolina Hurricanes (8th) are the new divisional favorite! Their Win Odds skyrocketed by +15% (from 17% to 32%), thanks to two shootout wins against Washington and Philadelphia. They are the hottest team in the Metro.
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The Washington Capitals (4th, -1) saw their Win Odds tumble -10% to 30%. They are now clinging to the top spot by a thread.
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The NY Islanders (9th, +4) are a sneaky threat! Their Win Odds increased +7% to 15% after taking down Tampa Bay and Anaheim.
Atlantic Division (The Tampa Trap)
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The Tampa Bay Lightning (5th, +1) seized the lead, with their Win Odds jumping +9% to 39%. Their offensive firepower is unmatched in the division.
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The Detroit Red Wings (11th, +4) remain a threat at 14%, but the Montreal Canadiens (15th, +5) are right behind them at 13%. This is a three-way battle for the Atlantic crown.
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The Toronto Maple Leafs (14th, -5) are in free-fall, losing -8% in Win Odds, dropping them to a dismal 6%. They are a Wild Card team at best right now.
Pacific Division (Vegas’s Reign)
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The Vegas Golden Knights (3rd, +1) are running away with it. Their Win Odds soared +12% to a dominant 54%.
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The Los Angeles Kings (6th, -1) dropped -5% in Win Odds to 21%.
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The Anaheim Ducks (24th, -3) are fading, dropping -6% to 11%.
Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.
The top 5
1. Colorado Avalanche (1619, ▲5)
Record: 23-2-7, 1st in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 70% (▲10)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 18% (▲2)
Last week: 2-0-1
- December 9: Lost in SO 4-3 @ Nashville Predators (31st, 1446)
- December 11: Won 6-2 vs. Florida Panthers (13th, 1506)
- December 13: Won 4-2 vs. Nashville Predators (31st, 1446)
Next week:
- December 16: @ Seattle Kraken (30th, 1449)
- December 19: vs. Winnipeg Jets (15th, 1500)
- December 21: @ Minnesota Wild (7th, 1527)
2. Dallas Stars (1571, ▼11)
Record: 21-7-5, 2nd in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 98%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 11% (▼9)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▼1)
Last week: 1-2-0
- December 9: Won 4-3 @ Winnipeg Jets (15th, 1500)
- December 11: Lost 5-2 @ Minnesota Wild (7th, 1527)
- December 13: Lost 4-0 vs. Florida Panthers (13th, 1506)
Next week:
- December 15: vs. Los Angeles Kings (6th, 1529)
- December 18: @ San Jose Sharks (32nd, 1437)
- December 19: @ Anaheim Ducks (24th, 1478)
- December 21: vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (14th, 1504)
3. Vegas Golden Knights ▲1 (1558, ▲6)
Record: 16-6-9, 1st in Pacific Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 93% (▲5)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 5% (▲2)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲1)
Last week: 2-0-1
- December 9: Lost in SO 5-4 @ New York Islanders (9th, 1512)
- December 11: Won in OT 3-2 @ Philadelphia Flyers (22nd, 1486)
- December 13: Won 3-2 @ Columbus Blue Jackets (27th, 1467)
Next week:
- December 17: vs. New Jersey Devils (26th, 1473)
- December 20: @ Calgary Flames (19th, 1491)
- December 21: @ Edmonton Oilers (12th, 1507)
4. Washington Capitals ▼1 (1557, ▼10)
Record: 18-10-4, 3rd in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 84% (▼5)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 3% (▼3)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▼2)
Last week: 0-1-1
- December 11: Lost in SO 3-2 vs. Carolina Hurricanes (8th, 1524)
- December 13: Lost 5-1 @ Winnipeg Jets (15th, 1500)
Next week:
- December 16: @ Minnesota Wild (7th, 1527)
- December 18: vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (14th, 1504)
- December 20: vs. Detroit Red Wings (11th, 1510)
- December 21: @ Detroit Red Wings (11th, 1510)
5. Tampa Bay Lightning (1546, ▲8)
Record: 18-11-3, 1st in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 81% (▲3)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 2%
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▲1)
Last week: 2-1-1
- December 8: Lost 2-0 @ Toronto Maple Leafs (14th, 1504)
- December 9: Won 6-1 @ Montreal Canadiens (15th, 1500)
- December 11: Won 8-4 @ New Jersey Devils (26th, 1473)
- December 13: Lost in SO 3-2 @ New York Islanders (9th, 1512)
Next week:
- December 15: vs. Florida Panthers (13th, 1506)
- December 18: vs. Los Angeles Kings (6th, 1529)
- December 20: vs. Carolina Hurricanes (8th, 1524)
Overall Ratings
1 Colorado Avalanche 1619 (▲5) 2 Dallas Stars 1571 (▼11) 3 Vegas Golden Knights (▲1) 1558 (▲6) 4 Washington Capitals (▼1) 1557 (▼10) 5 Tampa Bay Lightning 1546 (▲8) 6 Los Angeles Kings (▲1) 1529 (▲5) 7 Minnesota Wild (▲8) 1527 (▲28) 8 Carolina Hurricanes 1524 (▲6) 9 New York Islanders (▲3) 1512 (▲6) 10 Pittsburgh Penguins (▼4) 1511 (▼14) 11 Detroit Red Wings (▲6) 1510 (▲17) 12 Edmonton Oilers (▲2) 1507 (▲7) 13 Florida Panthers (▲4) 1506 (▲13) 14 Toronto Maple Leafs (▼4) 1504 (▼5) 15 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲6) 1500 (▲10) 15 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼4) 1500 (▼8) 17 St. Louis Blues (▼8) 1499 (▼11) 18 New York Rangers (▼5) 1496 (▼8) 19 Calgary Flames (▲1) 1491 20 Ottawa Senators (▼4) 1489 (▼7) 21 Boston Bruins (▲4) 1488 (▲12) 22 Philadelphia Flyers (▲2) 1486 (▲9) 23 Utah Mammoth (▼6) 1484 (▼9) 24 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼2) 1478 (▼11) 24 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲5) 1478 (▲12) 26 New Jersey Devils 1473 27 Columbus Blue Jackets (▼4) 1467 (▼21) 28 Chicago Blackhawks (▼2) 1466 (▼7) 29 Vancouver Canucks (▲1) 1450 (▼6) 30 Seattle Kraken (▼2) 1449 (▼21) 31 Nashville Predators 1446 (▲8) 32 San Jose Sharks (▼1) 1437 (▼1)
Chances of Winning Division
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes (▲1) 32% (▲15) 2 Washington Capitals (▼1) 30% (▼10) 3 New York Islanders (▲1) 15% (▲7) 4 Pittsburgh Penguins (▼2) 9% (▼8) 5 Philadelphia Flyers 6% (▲1) 6 New York Rangers (▼1) 4% (▼1) 7 New Jersey Devils (▲1) 3% 8 Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1) 1% (▼3)
Atlantic Division
1 Tampa Bay Lightning 39% 2 Detroit Red Wings (▲2) 14% (▲4) 3 Montreal Canadiens (▼1) 13% 4 Boston Bruins (▲2) 10% (▲2) 5 Florida Panthers (▲2) 9% (▲2) 6 Toronto Maple Leafs (▼3) 6% (▼5) 7 Ottawa Senators (▼2) 4% (▼5) 8 Buffalo Sabres 3% (▲1)
Central Division
1 Colorado Avalanche 81% (▲10) 2 Dallas Stars 15% (▼11) 3 Minnesota Wild 3% (▲2) 4 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks <1% 4 (tie) Nashville Predators <1% 4 (tie) St. Louis Blues <1% 4 (tie) Utah Mammoth <1% 4 (tie) Winnipeg Jets <1%
Pacific Division
1 Vegas Golden Knights 54% (▲10) 2 Los Angeles Kings 21% 3 Anaheim Ducks 11% (▼7) 4 Edmonton Oilers 9% 5 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲1) 1% (▼1) 5 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1) 1% (▼1) 5 (tie) Seattle Kraken 1% (▼4) 8 Vancouver Canucks <1% (▼1)
Making the Playoffs
Metropolitan Division
1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲1) 84% (▲13) 1 (tie) Washington Capitals 84% (▼5) 3 New York Islanders (▲1) 69% (▲13) 4 Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1) 56% (▼14) 5 Philadelphia Flyers (▲1) 47% (▲6) 6 New York Rangers (▼1) 40% (▼6) 7 New Jersey Devils (▲1) 33% (▼2) 8 Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1) 17% (▼20)
Atlantic Division
1 Tampa Bay Lightning 81% (▲3) 2 Detroit Red Wings (▲1) 57% (▲12) 3 Montreal Canadiens (▼1) 54% (▲4) 4 Boston Bruins (▲1) 48% (▲7) 5 Florida Panthers (▲2) 44% (▲7) 6 Toronto Maple Leafs (▼3) 37% (▼8) 7 Ottawa Senators (▼2) 30% (▼11) 8 Buffalo Sabres 22% (▲6)
Central Division
1 Colorado Avalanche >99% 2 Dallas Stars 98% 3 Minnesota Wild 86% (▲25) 4 Winnipeg Jets 39% (▼7) 5 Utah Mammoth 38% (▼4) 6 St. Louis Blues 28% (▼9) 7 Chicago Blackhawks 25% (▼6) 8 Nashville Predators 12% (▲4)
Pacific Division
1 Vegas Golden Knights 93% (▲5) 2 Los Angeles Kings 79% (▲6) 3 Anaheim Ducks 64% (▼6) 4 Edmonton Oilers 60% (▲8) 5 San Jose Sharks (▲1) 25% (▲4) 6 Calgary Flames 24% (▲3) 7 Seattle Kraken (▼2) 21% (▼16) 8 Vancouver Canucks 10% (▼4)
Winning the President’s Trophy
1 Colorado Avalanche 70% (▲10) 2 Dallas Stars 11% (▼9) 3 Vegas Golden Knights (▲1) 5% (▲2) 4 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▲1) 3% (▲1) 4 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼1) 3% (▼3) 6 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲2) 2% (▲1) 6 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1) 2% 8 (tie) Los Angeles Kings 1% 8 (tie) New York Islanders (▲3) 1% (▲1) 8 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼3) 1% (▼1)
Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.
Winning the Stanley Cup
1 Colorado Avalanche 18% (▲2) 2 Dallas Stars 9% (▼1) 3 Vegas Golden Knights (▲1) 8% (▲1) 4 Washington Capitals (▼1) 7% (▼2) 5 Tampa Bay Lightning 6% (▲1) 6 Carolina Hurricanes 5% (▲1) 7 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼1) 4% 7 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲4) 4% (▲2) 9 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲2) 3% (▲1) 9 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲2) 3% (▲1) 9 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲2) 3% (▲1) 9 (tie) New York Islanders 3% 9 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼3) 3% (▼1) 14 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼3) 2% 14 (tie) Boston Bruins (▼3) 2% 14 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼3) 2% 14 (tie) New York Rangers (▼3) 2% 14 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▼3) 2% 14 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼3) 2% 14 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▼5) 2% (▼1) 14 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼3) 2% 22 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲3) 1% 22 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲3) 1% 22 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲3) 1% 22 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼11) 1% (▼1) 22 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲3) 1% 22 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲9) 1% (▲1) 22 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲3) 1% 22 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼11) 1% (▼1) 22 (tie) Utah Mammoth (▼11) 1% (▼1) 31 (tie) Nashville Predators <1% 31 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼6) <1% (▼1)