Hey Shane, what’s this???
Welcome to this season’s first McDonald NHL Power Ratings report. I plan on putting out a report every Monday morning, but we’ll see how it goes. I’ve automated some of the report generation this season, so that speeds it up a bit, and it helps me to keep track of what’s going on around the league. I’ve been out of the country for the first bit of the season, so I haven’t generated a report yet, and I’ll be heading out again in January, but I’ll take the laptop along and try to keep it updated.
Anyways, how’s this work? I use a simple ELO Rating system; for those of you interested, I use a K-factor of 15, and I assign ratings for the teams at the start of the season based on their regular season performance the previous season, then update the ratings after every game. Using these ratings, I’m able to calculate an expected win probability for a game between two teams, giving the home team an advantage of 40 rating points. Then, I simulate the rest of the schedule using these probabilities, repeat 100,000 times, and keep track of various results. Based on these 100,000 simulated seasons, I calculate the chances of each team making the playoffs, winning their division, winning the President’s Trophy (top team in the league), and winning their playoff series, finishing with the Stanley Cup final.
My ELO ratings are based on an average rating of 1500; any team with a rating above 1500 is above average, and teams below 1500 are below average. When I calculate new ratings based on games, I count overtime and shootout results as ties, as the results of these games seem pretty much a coin flip. I also expect about 15% of games to end in overtime, and an additional 7.5% of games to end in shootouts. Historically, these numbers have been pretty accurate.
So much for the explanations. How’s things looking this week?
Well, the top-ranked team in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings is Colorado. They have had an absolutely amazing start to the season, only having lost one game in regulation time. They are currently sitting first in the Central Division, and I’ve given them a rating of 1614, up 7 points from last week, based on their 2-0-1 record this past week. In my simulations, they make the playoffs over 99% of the time, and they finish the season with the top record a whopping 56% of the time! Based on their season so far, I figure they’ve got the best chance of winning the Stanley Cup, having won it 16% of the time in my simulations.
Ranked number 2 this week is Dallas, moving up one ranking spot from last week. They went 4-0-0 this past week, garnering them an additional 25 rating points! They’re sitting 2nd in the Central Division, and I’m giving them a 96% chance of making the playoffs (up 12% from last week), and a 9% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.
Tampa Bay also had a great 4-0-0 week, and that resulted in them picking up another 24 rating points, moving them up into 3rd in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings. They’ve got an 8% chance of winning the Cup.
4th in the rankings is another 4-0-0 team, the Washington Capitals. They picked up 25 rating points, moving up from 7th in our rankings last week to 4th, despite currently only being in 3rd place in the Metropolitan Division.
Rounding out the top 5 is Vegas, who had a pretty bad week, going 1-2-1, with their only win coming against bottom-ranked San Jose. This dropped them from 2nd in last week’s rankings, and they are currently sitting 3rd in the Pacific Division.
The three big upward-movers this week were Dallas, Tampa Bay, and Washington. On the flip side, the worst performing team was Detroit. They lost all 4 of their games last week, one of those in a shootout, and as a result, lost 23 rating points and dropped down 11 spots in the rankings to 26th.
Anyways, here’s the rankings and ratings — enjoy! Changes shown are from last week’s report.
The top 5
1. Colorado Avalanche (1614, ▲7)
Record: 18-1-6, 1st in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99% (▲1)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 56% (▲2)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 16% (▲1)
Last week: 2-0-1
- November 26: Won 6-0 vs. San Jose Sharks (32nd, 1430)
- November 28: Lost in SO 3-2 @ Minnesota Wild (10th, 1506)
- November 29: Won 7-2 vs. Montreal Canadiens (10th, 1506)
Next week:
- December 2: vs. Vancouver Canucks (30th, 1459)
- December 4: @ New York Islanders (20th, 1487)
- December 6: @ New York Rangers (17th, 1493)
- December 7: @ Philadelphia Flyers (22nd, 1484)
2. Dallas Stars ▲1 (1574, ▲25)
Record: 17-5-4, 2nd in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 96% (▲12)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 15% (▲8)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲3)
Last week: 4-0-0
- November 25: Won 8-3 @ Edmonton Oilers (16th, 1494)
- November 26: Won 3-2 @ Seattle Kraken (21st, 1485)
- November 28: Won 4-3 vs. Utah Mammoth (19th, 1491)
- November 30: Won 6-1 vs. Ottawa Senators (10th, 1506)
Next week:
- December 2: @ New York Rangers (17th, 1493)
- December 3: @ New Jersey Devils (14th, 1503)
- December 5: vs. San Jose Sharks (32nd, 1430)
- December 7: vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (10th, 1506)
3. Tampa Bay Lightning ▲1 (1564, ▲24)
Record: 16-7-2, 1st in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 91% (▲15)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 8% (▲4)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲2)
Last week: 4-0-0
- November 24: Won 3-0 vs. Philadelphia Flyers (22nd, 1484)
- November 26: Won 5-1 vs. Calgary Flames (22nd, 1484)
- November 28: Won 6-3 @ Detroit Red Wings (26th, 1478)
- November 29: Won 4-1 @ New York Rangers (17th, 1493)
Next week:
- December 2: @ New York Islanders (20th, 1487)
- December 4: vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (10th, 1506)
- December 6: vs. New York Islanders (20th, 1487)
4. Washington Capitals ▲3 (1549, ▲25)
Record: 15-9-2, 3rd in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 78% (▲22)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 3% (▲2)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▲2)
Last week: 4-0-0
- November 24: Won 5-1 vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (22nd, 1484)
- November 26: Won 4-3 vs. Winnipeg Jets (8th, 1516)
- November 28: Won 4-2 vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (18th, 1492)
- November 30: Won 4-1 @ New York Islanders (20th, 1487)
Next week:
- December 2: @ Los Angeles Kings (6th, 1535)
- December 3: @ San Jose Sharks (32nd, 1430)
- December 5: @ Anaheim Ducks (25th, 1481)
- December 7: vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (22nd, 1484)
5. Vegas Golden Knights ▼3 (1547, ▼14)
Record: 11-6-8, 3rd in Pacific Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 80% (▼6)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 2% (▼5)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▼2)
Last week: 1-2-1
- November 24: Lost 5-1 @ Utah Mammoth (19th, 1491)
- November 26: Lost in SO 4-3 vs. Ottawa Senators (10th, 1506)
- November 28: Lost 4-1 vs. Montreal Canadiens (10th, 1506)
- November 29: Won 4-3 vs. San Jose Sharks (32nd, 1430)
Next week:
- December 2: vs. Chicago Blackhawks (27th, 1475)
- December 5: @ New Jersey Devils (14th, 1503)
- December 7: @ New York Rangers (17th, 1493)
Overall Ratings
1 Colorado Avalanche 1614 (▲7) 2 Dallas Stars (▲1) 1574 (▲25) 3 Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1) 1564 (▲24) 4 Washington Capitals (▲3) 1549 (▲25) 5 Vegas Golden Knights (▼3) 1547 (▼14) 6 Los Angeles Kings 1535 (▲3) 7 Carolina Hurricanes (▼2) 1532 (▼5) 8 Winnipeg Jets (▲1) 1516 (▼5) 9 St. Louis Blues (▲6) 1509 (▲8) 10 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲2) 1506 (▼1) 10 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲10) 1506 (▲13) 10 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▼2) 1506 (▼17) 10 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins 1506 (▼3) 14 New Jersey Devils (▲4) 1503 (▲5) 15 Florida Panthers (▼5) 1498 (▼11) 16 Edmonton Oilers (▲5) 1494 (▲2) 17 New York Rangers (▲10) 1493 (▲17) 18 Toronto Maple Leafs (▲5) 1492 (▲4) 19 Utah Mammoth (▼6) 1491 (▼13) 20 New York Islanders (▼7) 1487 (▼17) 21 Seattle Kraken (▼6) 1485 (▼16) 22 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲3) 1484 (▲6) 22 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets 1484 (▼7) 22 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲6) 1484 (▲14) 25 Anaheim Ducks (▼6) 1481 (▼16) 26 Detroit Red Wings (▼11) 1478 (▼23) 27 Chicago Blackhawks (▼1) 1475 (▼2) 28 Buffalo Sabres (▼4) 1471 (▼12) 29 Boston Bruins 1467 30 Vancouver Canucks 1459 (▲5) 31 Nashville Predators (▲1) 1433 (▲5) 32 San Jose Sharks (▼1) 1430 (▼1)
Chances of Winning Division
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes 30% (▼5) 2 Washington Capitals (▲3) 24% (▲13) 3 New Jersey Devils (▼1) 16% (▲2) 4 Pittsburgh Penguins 10% (▼2) 5 Philadelphia Flyers (▲2) 9% (▲3) 6 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets 4% (▼3) 6 (tie) New York Islanders (▼3) 4% (▼9) 8 New York Rangers 3% (▲1)
Atlantic Division
1 Tampa Bay Lightning 58% (▲27) 2 Montreal Canadiens (▲2) 14% (▲3) 3 Ottawa Senators (▼1) 9% (▼12) 4 Florida Panthers 5% (▼6) 5 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲1) 4% (▼1) 5 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼2) 4% (▼10) 5 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲3) 4% (▲1) 8 Buffalo Sabres (▼1) 2% (▼2)
Central Division
1 Colorado Avalanche 73% (▼2) 2 Dallas Stars 22% (▲9) 3 Minnesota Wild (▲1) 2% (▼1) 4 (tie) Utah Mammoth (▲1) 1% (▼1) 4 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼1) 1% (▼3) 6 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks <1% (▼1) 6 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲2) <1% 6 (tie) St. Louis Blues <1% (▼1)
Pacific Division
1 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1) 32% (▲12) 1 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights 32% (▼7) 3 Anaheim Ducks 13% (▼5) 4 Seattle Kraken 10% (▼4) 5 Edmonton Oilers 8% (▲2) 6 Calgary Flames 2% (▲1) 7 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼1) 1% 7 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼1) 1%
Making the Playoffs
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes 81% (▼1) 2 Washington Capitals (▲2) 78% (▲22) 3 New Jersey Devils (▼1) 68% (▲7) 4 Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1) 55% 5 Philadelphia Flyers (▲2) 51% (▲13) 6 New York Islanders (▼3) 39% (▼20) 7 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1) 34% (▼9) 7 (tie) New York Rangers (▲1) 34% (▲10)
Atlantic Division
1 Tampa Bay Lightning 91% (▲15) 2 Montreal Canadiens (▲2) 60% (▲11) 3 Ottawa Senators (▼1) 51% (▼15) 4 Florida Panthers 39% (▼10) 5 Boston Bruins (▲1) 34% (▲2) 6 Detroit Red Wings (▼3) 32% (▼24) 7 Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1) 31% (▲5) 8 Buffalo Sabres (▼1) 21% (▼8)
Central Division
1 Colorado Avalanche >99% (▲1) 2 Dallas Stars 96% (▲12) 3 Minnesota Wild (▲1) 66% (▲8) 4 Winnipeg Jets (▼1) 54% (▼5) 5 Utah Mammoth 41% (▼12) 6 St. Louis Blues (▲1) 36% (▲6) 7 Chicago Blackhawks (▼1) 34% (▼2) 8 Nashville Predators 6% (▲1)
Pacific Division
1 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1) 80% (▲9) 1 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights 80% (▼6) 3 Anaheim Ducks 59% (▼9) 4 Seattle Kraken 50% (▼13) 5 Edmonton Oilers 46% (▲4) 6 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲1) 18% (▲3) 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks 18% (▼1) 8 Vancouver Canucks 17% (▲3)
Winning the President’s Trophy
1 Colorado Avalanche 56% (▲2) 2 Dallas Stars 15% (▲8) 3 Tampa Bay Lightning (▲2) 8% (▲4) 4 Carolina Hurricanes 4% (▼2) 5 Washington Capitals (▲6) 3% (▲2) 6 (tie) Los Angeles Kings 2% 6 (tie) New Jersey Devils 2% 6 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼4) 2% (▼5) 9 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼3) 1% (▼1) 9 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲2) 1% 9 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲2) 1% 9 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲12) 1% (▲1) 9 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2) 1% 9 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲2) 1%
Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.
Winning the Stanley Cup
1 Colorado Avalanche 16% (▲1) 2 Dallas Stars (▲1) 9% (▲3) 3 Tampa Bay Lightning 8% (▲2) 4 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼2) 6% (▼2) 4 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲2) 6% (▲2) 6 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes (▼3) 5% (▼1) 6 (tie) Los Angeles Kings 5% (▲1) 8 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲1) 3% 8 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲11) 3% (▲1) 8 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1) 3% 8 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▼2) 3% (▼1) 8 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1) 3% 8 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲1) 3% 14 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼5) 2% (▼1) 14 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲5) 2% 14 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼5) 2% (▼1) 14 (tie) New York Islanders (▼5) 2% (▼1) 14 (tie) New York Rangers (▲12) 2% (▲1) 14 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲5) 2% 14 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▼5) 2% (▼1) 14 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲5) 2% 14 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲5) 2% 14 (tie) Utah Mammoth (▼5) 2% (▼1) 24 (tie) Boston Bruins (▲2) 1% 24 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▼5) 1% (▼1) 24 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲2) 1% 24 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲2) 1% 24 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼5) 1% (▼1) 24 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼15) 1% (▼2) 24 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲2) 1% 31 (tie) Nashville Predators <1% 31 (tie) San Jose Sharks <1%