There’s a little over five weeks left in the NHL regular season, and things are starting to get sorted out. Although no teams have clinched spots, there are some teams that have been eliminated from the possibility of winning their divisions. Columbus in the Metropolitan Division and Detroit and Montreal in the Atlantic Division have that privilege, although all three teams still have shots at making the playoffs.
As always seems to be the case, four of last week’s top 5 teams remain in this week’s top 5, and there’s one new addition, although there has been a bit of shuffling in placings. Boston continues to be the top-ranked team, with an amazing 1663 rating points, up 12 from last week after going 4-0-0. They beat 4th-ranked Edmonton, 20th-ranked Buffalo, and 8th-ranked New York Rangers in regulation time, but needed overtime to beat 21st-ranked Calgary. We’ve bumped up their chances of winning the Stanley Cup to 30%, up 5% from last week, and of winning the President’s Trophy to 99%, up 3%.
Carolina is this week’s 2nd-ranked team, the same as last week, although they did edge over that 1600-rating point great team mark. They went 2-1-0, and gained 3 rating points to finish the week at 1602. They lost to 12th-ranked Las Vegas, but defeated 29th-ranked Arizona and 8th-ranked Tampa Bay. They are the only other team with at least a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy, with a 1% chance! We’re giving them a 12% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.
Toronto remains in 3rd place in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings, despite going 1-2-0 and losing 10 rating points, finishing the week at 1564. They had a Western road trip, losing to 4th-ranked Edmonton and 26th-ranked Vancouver, but defeated 21st-ranked Calgary.
Edmonton moved up one spot in our rankings to 4th, despite going 2-2-0 this week and dropping 2 rating points to 1556. They lost to top-ranked Boston, beat 3rd-ranked Toronto and 18th-ranked Winnipeg, but then lost their final game of the week to Winnipeg. Although they are ranked 4th in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings, they are currently in 4th place in the Pacific Division with 76 points in 64 games, behind 12th-ranked Vegas (82 points after 63 games), 6th-ranked Los Angeles (80 points after 64 games), and 13th-ranked Seattle (78 points after 63 games).
The new entry in the top 5 this week is Dallas, who jumped 5 spots and 14 points in our rankings, finishing the week with 1547 rating points. They are currently in 1st place in the Central Division. Dallas went 3-0-1 this week, starting the week with a loss in overtime to 26th-ranked Vancouver, but then had three straight regulation wins over 29th-ranked Arizona, 32nd-ranked Chicago, and 11th-ranked Colorado.
The biggest upward mover this week was Ottawa. They gained 29 rating points and 5 positions in the rankings, finishing the week with 1507 points to rank 17th. They went 4-0-0, defeating 23rd-ranked Detroit twice, 8th-ranked New York Rangers, and 28th-ranked Columbus. We’re now giving them a 26% chance of making the playoffs, up 18% from last week!
Four teams had big downward moves: Detroit dropped 27 rating points and 2 rating positions to 23rd after going 0-4-1, Tampa Bay dropped 26 rating points and 4 rating positions to 8th after going 0-3-1, Chicago dropped 24 rating points and 1 rating position to 32nd after going 0-4-0, and San Jose dropped 23 rating points and 4 rating positions to 31st after going 0-3-0.
Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.
The top 5
1. Boston Bruins (1663, ▲12)
Record: 49-8-5, 1st in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 99% (▲3)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 30% (▲5)
Last week: 4-0-0
- February 27: Won 3-2 @ Edmonton Oilers (4th, 1556)
- February 28: Won in OT 4-3 @ Calgary Flames (21st, 1501)
- March 2: Won 7-1 vs. Buffalo Sabres (20th, 1503)
- March 4: Won 4-2 vs. New York Rangers (8th, 1542)
Next week:
- March 9: vs. Edmonton Oilers (4th, 1556)
- March 11: vs. Detroit Red Wings (23rd, 1463)
- March 12: @ Detroit Red Wings (23rd, 1463)
2. Carolina Hurricanes (1602, ▲3)
Record: 41-12-8, 1st in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 1% (▼3)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 12%
Last week: 2-1-0
- March 1: Lost 3-2 @ Vegas Golden Knights (12th, 1532)
- March 3: Won 6-1 @ Arizona Coyotes (29th, 1416)
- March 5: Won 6-0 vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (8th, 1542)
Next week:
- March 7: @ Montreal Canadiens (27th, 1419)
- March 9: vs. Philadelphia Flyers (24th, 1458)
- March 11: vs. Vegas Golden Knights (12th, 1532)
- March 12: @ New Jersey Devils (7th, 1543)
3. Toronto Maple Leafs (1564, ▼10)
Record: 38-17-8, 2nd in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▼1)
Last week: 1-2-0
- March 1: Lost 5-2 @ Edmonton Oilers (4th, 1556)
- March 2: Won 2-1 @ Calgary Flames (21st, 1501)
- March 4: Lost 4-1 @ Vancouver Canucks (26th, 1442)
Next week:
- March 7: @ New Jersey Devils (7th, 1543)
- March 11: vs. Edmonton Oilers (4th, 1556)
4. Edmonton Oilers ▲1 (1556, ▼2)
Record: 34-22-8, 4th in Pacific Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 90% (▼1)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▼1)
Last week: 2-2-0
- February 27: Lost 3-2 vs. Boston Bruins (1st, 1663)
- March 1: Won 5-2 vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (3rd, 1564)
- March 3: Won 6-3 vs. Winnipeg Jets (18th, 1505)
- March 4: Lost 7-5 @ Winnipeg Jets (18th, 1505)
Next week:
- March 6: @ Buffalo Sabres (20th, 1503)
- March 9: @ Boston Bruins (1st, 1663)
- March 11: @ Toronto Maple Leafs (3rd, 1564)
5. Dallas Stars ▲5 (1547, ▲14)
Record: 34-16-13, 1st in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 99% (▲3)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 5% (▲1)
Last week: 3-0-1
- February 27: Lost in OT 5-4 vs. Vancouver Canucks (26th, 1442)
- March 1: Won 4-2 vs. Arizona Coyotes (29th, 1416)
- March 2: Won 5-2 @ Chicago Blackhawks (32nd, 1386)
- March 4: Won 7-3 vs. Colorado Avalanche (11th, 1534)
Next week:
- March 6: vs. Calgary Flames (21st, 1501)
- March 9: @ Buffalo Sabres (20th, 1503)
- March 11: @ Seattle Kraken (13th, 1525)
Overall Ratings
1 Boston Bruins 1663 (▲12) 2 Carolina Hurricanes 1602 (▲3) 3 Toronto Maple Leafs 1564 (▼10) 4 Edmonton Oilers (▲1) 1556 (▼2) 5 Dallas Stars (▲5) 1547 (▲14) 6 Los Angeles Kings (▲3) 1544 (▲10) 7 New Jersey Devils (▲1) 1543 (▲7) 8 (tie) New York Rangers (▼2) 1542 (▼15) 8 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼4) 1542 (▼26) 10 Minnesota Wild (▲2) 1537 (▲14) 11 Colorado Avalanche (▼4) 1534 (▼11) 12 Vegas Golden Knights (▼1) 1532 (▲7) 13 Seattle Kraken (▲2) 1525 (▲14) 14 New York Islanders 1519 (▲7) 15 Florida Panthers (▲2) 1515 (▲8) 16 Nashville Predators (▲1) 1514 (▲7) 17 Ottawa Senators (▲5) 1507 (▲29) 18 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1) 1505 (▲3) 18 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲1) 1505 (▲3) 20 Buffalo Sabres (▼4) 1503 (▼6) 21 Calgary Flames (▼8) 1501 (▼13) 22 Washington Capitals (▲1) 1477 (▲7) 23 Detroit Red Wings (▼2) 1463 (▼27) 24 Philadelphia Flyers (▲1) 1458 (▲8) 25 St. Louis Blues (▼1) 1457 (▼4) 26 Vancouver Canucks 1442 (▲6) 27 Montreal Canadiens 1419 (▼9) 28 Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1) 1417 (▼1) 29 Arizona Coyotes 1416 (▼2) 30 Anaheim Ducks (▲2) 1415 (▲14) 31 San Jose Sharks (▼4) 1405 (▼23) 32 Chicago Blackhawks (▼1) 1386 (▼24)
Chances of Winning Division
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes 78% (▼3) 2 New Jersey Devils 22% (▲5) 3 (tie) New York Islanders (▲1) <1% 3 (tie) New York Rangers <1% (▼2) 3 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲1) <1% 3 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1) <1% 3 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲1) <1% 8 Columbus Blue Jackets (▼4) — (▼1)
Atlantic Division
1 Boston Bruins >99% 2 (tie) Buffalo Sabres <1% 2 (tie) Florida Panthers <1% 2 (tie) Ottawa Senators <1% 2 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning <1% 2 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs <1% 7 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼5) — (▼1) 7 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▼5) — (▼1)
Central Division
1 Dallas Stars (▲1) 56% (▲18) 2 Colorado Avalanche (▼1) 20% (▼24) 3 Minnesota Wild 19% (▲9) 4 Winnipeg Jets 3% (▼3) 5 Nashville Predators 1% (▼1) 6 (tie) Arizona Coyotes <1% 6 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks <1% 6 (tie) St. Louis Blues <1%
Pacific Division
1 Vegas Golden Knights 42% 2 Los Angeles Kings 26% (▲4) 3 Seattle Kraken (▲1) 23% (▲10) 4 Edmonton Oilers (▼2) 9% (▼13) 5 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1) <1% 5 (tie) Calgary Flames <1% (▼1) 5 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1) <1% 5 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1) <1%
Making the Playoffs
Metropolitan Division
1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes >99% 1 (tie) New Jersey Devils >99% 3 New York Rangers 96% (▼2) 4 Pittsburgh Penguins 62% (▲9) 5 New York Islanders 46% (▲7) 6 Washington Capitals 12% (▲5) 7 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets <1% 7 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers <1%
Atlantic Division
1 (tie) Boston Bruins >99% 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs >99% 3 Tampa Bay Lightning (▼2) 97% (▼3) 4 Buffalo Sabres 37% (▼14) 5 Ottawa Senators (▲2) 26% (▲18) 6 Florida Panthers 21% (▲3) 7 Detroit Red Wings (▼2) 3% (▼24) 8 Montreal Canadiens <1%
Central Division
1 Dallas Stars 99% (▲3) 2 Minnesota Wild (▲1) 94% (▲12) 3 Colorado Avalanche (▼2) 92% (▼4) 4 Winnipeg Jets 72% (▼1) 5 Nashville Predators 45% 6 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲1) <1% 6 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲1) <1% 6 (tie) St. Louis Blues <1% (▼2)
Pacific Division
1 Vegas Golden Knights 98% (▲2) 2 Los Angeles Kings 97% (▲5) 3 Seattle Kraken (▲1) 96% (▲13) 4 Edmonton Oilers (▼1) 90% (▼1) 5 Calgary Flames 16% (▼29) 6 (tie) Anaheim Ducks <1% 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks <1% 6 (tie) Vancouver Canucks <1%
Winning the President’s Trophy
1 Boston Bruins 99% (▲3) 2 Carolina Hurricanes 1% (▼3)
Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.
Winning the Stanley Cup
1 Boston Bruins 30% (▲5) 2 Carolina Hurricanes 12% 3 (tie) Edmonton Oilers 6% (▼1) 3 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs 6% (▼1) 5 (tie) Dallas Stars (▲3) 5% (▲1) 5 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲3) 5% (▲1) 7 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼1) 4% (▼1) 7 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲5) 4% (▲1) 7 (tie) New York Rangers (▼1) 4% (▼1) 7 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1) 4% 7 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲1) 4% 12 (tie) Seattle Kraken 3% 12 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼7) 3% (▼3) 14 (tie) Nashville Predators 2% 14 (tie) Winnipeg Jets 2% 16 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1) 1% 16 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼2) 1% (▼1) 16 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲1) 1% 16 (tie) New York Islanders (▲1) 1% 16 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲6) 1% (▲1) 16 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲1) 1% 22 (tie) Anaheim Ducks <1% 22 (tie) Arizona Coyotes <1% 22 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks <1% 22 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets <1% 22 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼5) <1% (▼1) 22 (tie) Montreal Canadiens <1% 22 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers <1% 22 (tie) San Jose Sharks <1% 22 (tie) St. Louis Blues <1% 22 (tie) Vancouver Canucks <1% 22 (tie) Washington Capitals <1%