The NHL regular season ends on April 14th, so there’s just over a month to go. No teams have been eliminated from the playoffs yet, and Boston is the first team to clinch a playoff spot. But before we look at the playoff picture, let’s take a look at this week’s top 5.
Boston remains our top ranked team, despite what may be their worst week of the season, going 1-2-0. They started off the week with a home loss to 4th-ranked Edmonton, but turned that around with a home win over 23rd-ranked Detroit. But, in the second game in their home-and-home series with Detroit, they lost on the road. Despite this performance, they still have a league-leading 1646 rating points, a drop of 17 from last week, but still well above the 1600-point “great team” line. Plus, they’ve now clinched a playoff spot, with still just over a month to go.
Carolina remains at number 2 in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings, although they have now dropped back below that magical 1600-point threshold. They didn’t have the greatest week, winning their first game in a shootout over 29th-ranked Montreal, and followed it with a close win over 26th-ranked Philadelphia. But, they finished the week with two shutout losses, first to 9th-ranked Vegas, then to 6th-ranked New Jersey. With their 2-2-0 showing this week, they dropped 17 rating points to finish the week with 1585.
Toronto retains third spot in the rankings. They had a bit of a quieter week, playing only two games, but both of those games were against strong teams, and the Leafs came out ahead in both. They defeated 6th-ranked New Jersey and 4th-ranked Edmonton, allowing them to pick up 15 rating points according to our crack team of statisticians, mathematicians, and hair stylists. They’re now sitting at 1579 rating points, just 6 behind 2nd-ranked Carolina.
Again this week, Edmonton sits 4th in our rankings, despite being 4th in the Pacific Division! They had three road games, beating 21st-ranked Buffalo and top-ranked Boston, but losing to 3rd-ranked Toronto. They picked up 10 rating points to keep their 4th position from last week.
Rounding out the top 5 is a new entrant, as Los Angeles bumps out last week’s #5 Dallas. LA went 2-0-1 last week, beating 22nd-ranked Washington and 12th-ranked Colorado, then losing in a shootout to 18th-ranked Nashville. They picked up 11 rating points on the week, and currently sit 2nd in the Pacific Division.
Now, let’s take a look at the playoff picture. In the Eastern Conference, we’ve got six teams who we are giving a 99% chance of making the playoffs or better:
Boston Bruins 100% Carolina Hurricanes >99% New Jersey Devils >99% Toronto Maple Leafs >99% New York Rangers 99% Tampa Bay Lightning 99%
There are two playoff spots left in the East, with us giving the following teams a chance of grabbing one of them:
Pittsburgh Penguins 83% New York Islanders 53% Florida Panthers 30% Buffalo Sabres 11% Washington Capitals 11%
In the Western Conference, there’s seven teams that we’re pretty confident of making the playoffs, with us having calculated that they all have at least a 90% chance:
Vegas Golden Knights >99% Dallas Stars 99% Los Angeles Kings 99% Minnesota Wild 97% Edmonton Oilers 94% Seattle Kraken 94% Colorado Avalanche 91%
The way we see it, there’s only three teams with a chance of grabbing that last spot:
Winnipeg Jets 72% Nashville Predators 37% Calgary Flames 17%
Yeah, we know that doesn’t add up to 100%, but that’s because there’s still a chance that one or more of those other teams actually won’t make the playoffs.
Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.
The top 5
1. Boston Bruins (1646, ▼17)
Record: 50-10-5, 1st in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 100% (▲1)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 99%
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 26% (▼4)
Last week: 1-2-0
- March 9: Lost 3-2 vs. Edmonton Oilers (4th, 1566)
- March 11: Won 3-2 vs. Detroit Red Wings (23rd, 1476)
- March 12: Lost 5-3 @ Detroit Red Wings (23rd, 1476)
Next week:
- March 14: @ Chicago Blackhawks (32nd, 1389)
- March 16: @ Winnipeg Jets (19th, 1504)
- March 18: @ Minnesota Wild (7th, 1548)
- March 19: @ Buffalo Sabres (21st, 1483)
2. Carolina Hurricanes (1585, ▼17)
Record: 43-14-8, 1st in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 1%
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▼2)
Last week: 2-2-0
- March 7: Won in SO 4-3 @ Montreal Canadiens (29th, 1418)
- March 9: Won 1-0 vs. Philadelphia Flyers (26th, 1443)
- March 11: Lost 4-0 vs. Vegas Golden Knights (9th, 1543)
- March 12: Lost 3-0 @ New Jersey Devils (6th, 1549)
Next week:
- March 14: vs. Winnipeg Jets (19th, 1504)
- March 17: @ Toronto Maple Leafs (3rd, 1579)
- March 18: @ Philadelphia Flyers (26th, 1443)
3. Toronto Maple Leafs (1579, ▲15)
Record: 40-17-8, 2nd in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▲2)
Last week: 2-0-0
- March 7: Won 4-3 @ New Jersey Devils (6th, 1549)
- March 11: Won 7-4 vs. Edmonton Oilers (4th, 1566)
Next week:
- March 13: vs. Buffalo Sabres (21st, 1483)
- March 15: vs. Colorado Avalanche (12th, 1527)
- March 17: vs. Carolina Hurricanes (2nd, 1585)
- March 18: @ Ottawa Senators (20th, 1492)
4. Edmonton Oilers (1566, ▲10)
Record: 36-23-8, 4th in Pacific Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 94% (▲4)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲1)
Last week: 2-1-0
- March 6: Won 3-2 @ Buffalo Sabres (21st, 1483)
- March 9: Won 3-2 @ Boston Bruins (1st, 1646)
- March 11: Lost 7-4 @ Toronto Maple Leafs (3rd, 1579)
Next week:
- March 14: vs. Ottawa Senators (20th, 1492)
- March 16: vs. Dallas Stars (8th, 1545)
- March 18: @ Seattle Kraken (13th, 1521)
5. Los Angeles Kings ▲1 (1555, ▲11)
Record: 38-20-9, 2nd in Pacific Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 99% (▲2)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 6% (▲1)
Last week: 2-0-1
- March 6: Won 4-2 vs. Washington Capitals (22nd, 1481)
- March 9: Won 5-2 @ Colorado Avalanche (12th, 1527)
- March 11: Lost in SO 2-1 vs. Nashville Predators (18th, 1505)
Next week:
- March 14: vs. New York Islanders (15th, 1516)
- March 16: vs. Columbus Blue Jackets (30th, 1412)
- March 18: vs. Vancouver Canucks (25th, 1450)
Overall Ratings
1 Boston Bruins 1646 (▼17) 2 Carolina Hurricanes 1585 (▼17) 3 Toronto Maple Leafs 1579 (▲15) 4 Edmonton Oilers 1566 (▲10) 5 Los Angeles Kings (▲1) 1555 (▲11) 6 New Jersey Devils (▲1) 1549 (▲6) 7 Minnesota Wild (▲3) 1548 (▲11) 8 Dallas Stars (▼3) 1545 (▼2) 9 Vegas Golden Knights (▲3) 1543 (▲11) 10 Tampa Bay Lightning (▼2) 1541 (▼1) 11 New York Rangers (▼3) 1540 (▼2) 12 Colorado Avalanche (▼1) 1527 (▼7) 13 Seattle Kraken 1521 (▼4) 14 Florida Panthers (▲1) 1518 (▲3) 15 New York Islanders (▼1) 1516 (▼3) 16 (tie) Calgary Flames (▲5) 1508 (▲7) 16 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2) 1508 (▲3) 18 Nashville Predators (▼2) 1505 (▼9) 19 Winnipeg Jets (▼1) 1504 (▼1) 20 Ottawa Senators (▼3) 1492 (▼15) 21 Buffalo Sabres (▼1) 1483 (▼20) 22 Washington Capitals 1481 (▲4) 23 Detroit Red Wings 1476 (▲13) 24 St. Louis Blues (▲1) 1457 25 Vancouver Canucks (▲1) 1450 (▲8) 26 Philadelphia Flyers (▼2) 1443 (▼15) 27 Arizona Coyotes (▲2) 1437 (▲21) 28 Anaheim Ducks (▲2) 1422 (▲7) 29 Montreal Canadiens (▼2) 1418 (▼1) 30 Columbus Blue Jackets (▼2) 1412 (▼5) 31 San Jose Sharks 1393 (▼12) 32 Chicago Blackhawks 1389 (▲3)
Chances of Winning Division
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes 61% (▼17) 2 New Jersey Devils 38% (▲16) 3 New York Rangers 1% (▲1) 4 (tie) New York Islanders (▼1) <1% 4 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1) <1% 4 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼1) <1% 7 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1) — 7 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼4) — (▼1)
Atlantic Division
1 Boston Bruins >99% 2 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning <1% 2 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs <1% 4 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▼2) — (▼1) 4 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲3) — 4 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼2) — (▼1) 4 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲3) — 4 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▼2) — (▼1)
Central Division
1 Dallas Stars 59% (▲3) 2 Minnesota Wild (▲1) 24% (▲5) 3 Colorado Avalanche (▼1) 15% (▼5) 4 Winnipeg Jets 2% (▼1) 5 Nashville Predators 1% 6 (tie) Arizona Coyotes <1% 6 (tie) St. Louis Blues <1% 8 Chicago Blackhawks (▼2) — (▼1)
Pacific Division
1 Vegas Golden Knights 55% (▲13) 2 Los Angeles Kings 28% (▲2) 3 Seattle Kraken 9% (▼14) 4 Edmonton Oilers 7% (▼2) 5 (tie) Calgary Flames <1% 5 (tie) Vancouver Canucks <1% 7 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼2) — (▼1) 7 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼2) — (▼1)
Making the Playoffs
Metropolitan Division
1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes >99% 1 (tie) New Jersey Devils >99% 3 New York Rangers 99% (▲3) 4 Pittsburgh Penguins 83% (▲21) 5 New York Islanders 53% (▲7) 6 Washington Capitals 11% (▼1) 7 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets <1% 7 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers <1%
Atlantic Division
1 Boston Bruins 100% (▲1) 2 Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1) >99% 3 Tampa Bay Lightning 99% (▲2) 4 Florida Panthers (▲2) 30% (▲9) 5 Buffalo Sabres (▼1) 11% (▼26) 6 Ottawa Senators (▼1) 9% (▼17) 7 Detroit Red Wings 5% (▲2) 8 Montreal Canadiens <1%
Central Division
1 Dallas Stars 99% 2 Minnesota Wild 97% (▲3) 3 Colorado Avalanche 91% (▼1) 4 Winnipeg Jets 72% 5 Nashville Predators 37% (▼8) 6 (tie) Arizona Coyotes <1% 6 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks <1% 6 (tie) St. Louis Blues <1%
Pacific Division
1 Vegas Golden Knights >99% (▲2) 2 Los Angeles Kings 99% (▲2) 3 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲1) 94% (▲4) 3 (tie) Seattle Kraken 94% (▼2) 5 Calgary Flames 17% (▲1) 6 (tie) Anaheim Ducks <1% 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks <1% 6 (tie) Vancouver Canucks <1%
Winning the President’s Trophy
1 Boston Bruins 99% 2 Carolina Hurricanes 1%
Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.
Winning the Stanley Cup
1 Boston Bruins 26% (▼4) 2 Carolina Hurricanes 10% (▼2) 3 Toronto Maple Leafs 8% (▲2) 4 Edmonton Oilers (▼1) 7% (▲1) 5 (tie) Los Angeles Kings 6% (▲1) 5 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲2) 6% (▲2) 7 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼2) 5% 7 (tie) New Jersey Devils 5% (▲1) 7 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights 5% (▲1) 10 New York Rangers (▼3) 4% 11 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼4) 3% (▼1) 11 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲1) 3% 11 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1) 3% 14 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▲2) 2% (▲1) 14 (tie) Winnipeg Jets 2% 16 (tie) Calgary Flames 1% 16 (tie) Florida Panthers 1% 16 (tie) New York Islanders 1% 16 (tie) Nashville Predators (▼2) 1% (▼1) 20 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲2) <1% 20 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲2) <1% 20 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▼4) <1% (▼1) 20 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲2) <1% 20 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2) <1% 20 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲2) <1% 20 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲2) <1% 20 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▼4) <1% (▼1) 20 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲2) <1% 20 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲2) <1% 20 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲2) <1% 20 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲2) <1% 20 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲2) <1%