There are 1312 regular season games in the NHL this year, and by February 26, 950 of those games have been played. For those of you keeping score at home, that’s just over 72% of the games. And what’s becoming clear is that Boston is having an amazing season. After playing 58 of their 82 games, they have a record of 45 wins, 8 losses, and 5 overtime losses, sitting at 95 points, far ahead of the next closest team, Carolina, who has 86 points. And to top it off, their goalie, Linus Ullmark, scored an empty-net goal on Saturday in a game against Vancouver, becoming just the 13th goalie in NHL history to score, and the first since Pekka Rinne did it on January 9, 2020.
Unsurprisingly, Boston retains the top ranking in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings. They went 3-0-0 this week, beating 22nd-ranked Ottawa, 15th-ranked Seattle, and 26th-ranked Vancouver. They gained 14 rating points, and are now sitting with 1651 rating points, 52 rating points ahead of the next closest team, Carolina. We’re giving them a greater than 99% chance of making the playoffs, a 96% chance of winning the President’s Trophy as the team with the best regular season record, and a 25% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.
Carolina continues to be ranked 2nd in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings. They went 2-1-0 this week, beating 24th-ranked St. Louis and 22nd-ranked Ottawa, but finishing the week with a loss to the worst-in-league Anaheim Ducks. They are the only other team besides Boston that have any chance of winning the President’s Trophy, and they’ve only got a 4% chance of doing that. But, they do have a greater than 99% chance of making the playoffs, and a 12% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.
Toronto moved up two places in our rankings this week, going from 5th last week up to 3rd. They went 3-0-0, with two regulation wins over 16th-ranked Buffalo and 15th-ranked Seattle, and an overtime win against 12th-ranked Minnesota. They also have a greater than 99% chance of making the playoffs, and a 7% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.
Tampa Bay stayed in 4th place in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings, having kind of a middling performance this week. They started the week with a victory over 32nd-ranked Anaheim, but then lost in overtime to 16th-ranked Buffalo. Then, they turned it around with a win over 21st-ranked Detroit, but finished the week with a regulation loss to 19th-ranked Pittsburgh. We’ve dropped them one rating point, but they still stay in 4th in our rankings. They are yet another team with a greater than 99% chance of making the playoffs, and have a 6% chance of winning the Stanley Cup. They are currently in 3rd place in that tough Atlantic Division, behind Boston and Toronto. 3 of our top 4 teams come from the Atlantic Division!
There’s a new team in our top 5 this week, with Edmonton moving up from 6th in last week’s report, and pushing the New York Rangers down to 6th. Edmonton went 2-1-0 this week, beating 25th-ranked Philadelphia and 19th-ranked Pittsburgh, but losing to 29th-ranked Columbus. Despite being the only team in the Pacific Division in the top 5, they are only in 3rd in that division, 4 points behind 11th-ranked Vegas and 2 points behind 9th-ranked Los Angeles. We’re giving them a 91% chance of making the playoffs and a 7% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.
The biggest upward mover in our ratings this week was Anaheim. Despite being ranked worst in the NHL, they picked up 23 points this week, moving above the 1400-point stink line to finish the week with 1401 rating points. They went 2-1-1 this week with all four of their games on the road, losing in overtime to 17th-ranked Florida, losing in regulation time to 4th-ranked Tampa Bay, but then winning their last two games of the week in regulation time against 23rd-ranked Washington and 2nd-ranked Carolina.
The two biggest downward movers this week were Seattle, down 22 rating points, and New York Rangers, down 21. Seattle lost all 3 of their games in regulation time, losing to 27th-ranked San Jose, 1st-ranked Boston, and 3rd-ranked Toronto, and saw their ranking drop from 10th all the way down to 15th. The Rangers went 1-3-0 this week, losing to 19th-ranked Winnipeg, 21st-ranked Detroit, and 23rd-ranked Washington, before finishing the week with a victory over 9th-ranked Los Angeles. Their poor showing saw them drop out of the top 5, from 3rd last week in our rankings down to 6th this week.
Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.
The top 5
1. Boston Bruins (1651, ▲14)
Record: 45-8-5, 1st in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 96% (▲8)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 25% (▲4)
Last week: 3-0-0
- February 20: Won 3-1 vs. Ottawa Senators (22nd, 1478)
- February 23: Won 6-5 @ Seattle Kraken (15th, 1511)
- February 25: Won 3-1 @ Vancouver Canucks (26th, 1436)
Next week:
- February 27: @ Edmonton Oilers (5th, 1558)
- February 28: @ Calgary Flames (13th, 1514)
- March 2: vs. Buffalo Sabres (16th, 1509)
- March 4: vs. New York Rangers (6th, 1557)
2. Carolina Hurricanes (1599, ▼4)
Record: 39-11-8, 1st in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 4% (▼7)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 12% (▼1)
Last week: 2-1-0
- February 21: Won 4-1 vs. St. Louis Blues (24th, 1461)
- February 24: Won 4-0 vs. Ottawa Senators (22nd, 1478)
- February 25: Lost 3-2 vs. Anaheim Ducks (32nd, 1401)
Next week:
- March 1: @ Vegas Golden Knights (11th, 1525)
- March 3: @ Arizona Coyotes (29th, 1418)
- March 5: vs. Tampa Bay Lightning (4th, 1568)
3. Toronto Maple Leafs ▲2 (1574, ▲12)
Record: 37-15-8, 2nd in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99% (▲1)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲1)
Last week: 3-0-0
- February 21: Won 6-3 @ Buffalo Sabres (16th, 1509)
- February 24: Won in OT 2-1 vs. Minnesota Wild (12th, 1523)
- February 26: Won 5-1 @ Seattle Kraken (15th, 1511)
Next week:
- March 1: @ Edmonton Oilers (5th, 1558)
- March 2: @ Calgary Flames (13th, 1514)
- March 4: @ Vancouver Canucks (26th, 1436)
4. Tampa Bay Lightning (1568, ▼1)
Record: 37-18-4, 3rd in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99% (▲1)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 6%
Last week: 2-1-1
- February 21: Won 6-1 vs. Anaheim Ducks (32nd, 1401)
- February 23: Lost in OT 6-5 vs. Buffalo Sabres (16th, 1509)
- February 25: Won 3-0 @ Detroit Red Wings (21st, 1490)
- February 26: Lost 7-3 @ Pittsburgh Penguins (19th, 1502)
Next week:
- February 28: vs. Florida Panthers (17th, 1507)
- March 2: vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (19th, 1502)
- March 4: @ Buffalo Sabres (16th, 1509)
- March 5: @ Carolina Hurricanes (2nd, 1599)
5. Edmonton Oilers ▲1 (1558, ▲2)
Record: 32-20-8, 3rd in Pacific Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 91% (▲1)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▲1)
Last week: 2-1-0
- February 21: Won 4-2 vs. Philadelphia Flyers (25th, 1450)
- February 23: Won 7-2 @ Pittsburgh Penguins (19th, 1502)
- February 25: Lost 6-5 @ Columbus Blue Jackets (29th, 1418)
Next week:
- February 27: vs. Boston Bruins (1st, 1651)
- March 1: vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (3rd, 1574)
- March 3: vs. Winnipeg Jets (19th, 1502)
- March 4: @ Winnipeg Jets (19th, 1502)
Overall Ratings
1 Boston Bruins 1651 (▲14) 2 Carolina Hurricanes 1599 (▼4) 3 Toronto Maple Leafs (▲2) 1574 (▲12) 4 Tampa Bay Lightning 1568 (▼1) 5 Edmonton Oilers (▲1) 1558 (▲2) 6 New York Rangers (▼3) 1557 (▼21) 7 Colorado Avalanche (▲4) 1545 (▲14) 8 New Jersey Devils (▼1) 1536 (▼7) 9 Los Angeles Kings 1534 (▼4) 10 Dallas Stars (▼3) 1533 (▼10) 11 Vegas Golden Knights (▲1) 1525 (▼4) 12 Minnesota Wild (▲4) 1523 (▲12) 13 Calgary Flames 1514 (▼8) 14 New York Islanders (▲5) 1512 (▲17) 15 Seattle Kraken (▼5) 1511 (▼22) 16 Buffalo Sabres (▲2) 1509 (▲11) 17 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼3) 1507 (▼13) 17 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲2) 1507 (▲12) 19 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼2) 1502 (▼8) 19 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼4) 1502 (▼14) 21 Detroit Red Wings (▲1) 1490 (▲9) 22 Ottawa Senators (▲1) 1478 23 Washington Capitals (▼2) 1470 (▼15) 24 St. Louis Blues 1461 (▼5) 25 Philadelphia Flyers 1450 (▼9) 26 Vancouver Canucks 1436 (▼1) 27 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲2) 1428 (▲12) 27 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1) 1428 (▲1) 29 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▼2) 1418 (▼14) 29 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1) 1418 (▲7) 31 Chicago Blackhawks 1410 (▲14) 32 Anaheim Ducks 1401 (▲23)
Chances of Winning Division
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes 81% (▲5) 2 New Jersey Devils 17% (▲1) 3 New York Rangers 2% (▼6) 4 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets <1% 4 (tie) New York Islanders <1% 4 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers <1% 4 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins <1% 4 (tie) Washington Capitals <1%
Atlantic Division
1 Boston Bruins >99% (▲1) 2 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1) <1% 2 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1) <1% 2 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲1) <1% 2 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲1) <1% 2 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1) <1% 2 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning <1% (▼1) 2 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1) <1%
Central Division
1 Colorado Avalanche (▲1) 44% (▲17) 2 Dallas Stars (▼1) 38% (▼10) 3 Minnesota Wild (▲1) 10% (▲5) 4 Winnipeg Jets (▼1) 6% (▼13) 5 Nashville Predators 2% (▲1) 6 (tie) Arizona Coyotes <1% 6 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks <1% 6 (tie) St. Louis Blues <1%
Pacific Division
1 Vegas Golden Knights 42% (▲12) 2 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲2) 22% (▲8) 2 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲1) 22% (▼1) 4 Seattle Kraken (▼3) 13% (▼17) 5 Calgary Flames 1% (▼2) 6 (tie) Anaheim Ducks <1% 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks <1% 6 (tie) Vancouver Canucks <1%
Making the Playoffs
Metropolitan Division
1 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes >99% 1 (tie) New Jersey Devils >99% 3 New York Rangers 98% (▼1) 4 Pittsburgh Penguins 53% (▼6) 5 New York Islanders 39% (▲15) 6 Washington Capitals (▼1) 7% (▼17) 7 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲1) <1% 7 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers <1% (▼1)
Atlantic Division
1 (tie) Boston Bruins >99% 1 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1) >99% (▲1) 1 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1) >99% (▲1) 4 Buffalo Sabres 51% (▲16) 5 Detroit Red Wings (▲1) 27% (▲6) 6 Florida Panthers (▼1) 18% (▼10) 7 Ottawa Senators 8% (▼3) 8 Montreal Canadiens <1%
Central Division
1 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲1) 96% (▲6) 1 (tie) Dallas Stars 96% 3 Minnesota Wild (▲1) 82% (▲19) 4 Winnipeg Jets (▼1) 73% (▼14) 5 Nashville Predators 45% (▲19) 6 St. Louis Blues 2% (▼2) 7 (tie) Arizona Coyotes <1% 7 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks <1%
Pacific Division
1 Vegas Golden Knights 96% (▲1) 2 Los Angeles Kings (▲1) 92% (▼1) 3 Edmonton Oilers (▲1) 91% (▲1) 4 Seattle Kraken (▼3) 83% (▼12) 5 Calgary Flames 45% (▼16) 6 (tie) Anaheim Ducks <1% 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks <1% 6 (tie) Vancouver Canucks <1%
Winning the President’s Trophy
1 Boston Bruins 96% (▲8) 2 Carolina Hurricanes 4% (▼7)
Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.
Winning the Stanley Cup
1 Boston Bruins 25% (▲4) 2 Carolina Hurricanes 12% (▼1) 3 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲1) 7% (▲1) 3 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1) 7% (▲1) 5 Tampa Bay Lightning (▼1) 6% 6 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▲3) 5% (▲1) 6 (tie) New York Rangers (▼3) 5% (▼3) 8 (tie) Dallas Stars (▼1) 4% (▼1) 8 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼1) 4% (▼1) 8 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▲1) 4% 8 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲1) 4% 12 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲3) 3% (▲1) 12 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▼3) 3% (▼1) 14 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼1) 2% (▼1) 14 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲2) 2% (▲1) 14 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▼1) 2% (▼1) 17 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▼1) 1% 17 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲4) 1% (▲1) 17 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼1) 1% 17 (tie) New York Islanders (▼1) 1% 17 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1) 1% 22 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▼1) <1% 22 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▼1) <1% 22 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▼1) <1% 22 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▼1) <1% 22 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▼1) <1% 22 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▼1) <1% 22 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▼1) <1% 22 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▼1) <1% 22 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼1) <1% 22 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼1) <1% 22 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼1) <1%