We’re almost halfway through the NHL season, and there’s one team that’s standing out from the rest. Boston is having an amazing season, currently sitting with a record of 32 wins, 4 regular season losses, and 4 overtime losses. They continue to sit at the top of our rankings, but there has been a bit of change in our top 5.
Boston continued their great run, going 4-0-0 this week, with regulation wins over 7th-ranked Pittsburgh, 12th-ranked Los Angeles, 28th-ranked San Jose, and 31st-ranked Anaheim. Their performance garnered them 19 more rating points, putting them at 1632 for the year. They currently sit in first place in the Atlantic Division, as well as the NHL, and we’ve calculated that they’ve got a greater than 99% chance of making the playoffs, an 82% chance of winning the President’s Trophy, and a 19% chance of winning the Stanley Cup! They only have two games next week, both at home, one of which is against Toronto.
Toronto is ranked 2nd this week, up one swap from last week. They went 2-1-1 this week, beating 24th-ranked Detroit and 26th-ranked Philadelphia, losing in overtime to 18th-ranked St. Louis, and losing in regulation to 14th-ranked Seattle. With their middling performance, they lost 3 rating points, but due to Carolina’s poor week, they still moved up into 2nd place in our rankings. Their big game this week will be on the 14th against Boston.
Carolina had a disastrous week, losing all three of their games. They lost in regulation to the 5th-ranked New York Rangers and 19th-ranked Nashville, and lost in a shootout to 30th-ranked Columbus. The boys in the back room have dropped their rating by 21 rating points, but that’s still good enough for 3rd in our rankings, down one spot from last week.
Dallas is fourth in our rankings, the same as last week. They went 1-2-0 this week, beating 20th-ranked Florida but losing to 12th-ranked Los Angeles and 31st-ranked Anaheim. That resulted in a 12 point rating drop, but they stay the same spot in the rankings.
Rounding out the top 5 is a newcomer, with the New York Rangers entering at number 5, 3 spots up from last week. They had a fairly decent week, beating 3rd-ranked Carolina and 29th-ranked Montreal, but losing in overtime to 17th-ranked New Jersey. Despite being in our top 5, we’re only giving them a 78% chance of even making the playoffs, as they currently sit in 4th place in the Metropolitan Division.
Seattle and Nashville were the top two movers this week. Seattle won all three of their games, all in regulation time, and all on the road. They beat 12th-ranked Edmonton, 2nd-ranked Toronto, and 23rd-ranked Ottawa to gain 27 ranking points and moving from 21st in our rankings all the way up to 14th! Nashville also had a perfect week with 3 wins, beating 29th-ranked Montreal at home, and 3rd-ranked Carolina and 6th-ranked Washington on the road. As a result, they picked up 25 rating points, and moved from 23rd to 19th in our rankings.
The biggest downward mover this week was Arizona, who lost all 4 of their games this week in regulation time, resulting in us dropping them 27 rating points. However, that only resulted in them moving down one spot in the rankings, to 27th, but we now calculate that they’ve only got a 2% chance of making the playoffs, down from last week’s 13%! Their losses were to 20th-ranked Florida, 26th-ranked Philadelphia, 32nd-ranked Chicago, and 7th-ranked Pittsburgh.
Boston remains our favourites to win both the President’s Trophy and the Stanley Cup. We’re giving them an 82% chance of winning the President’s Trophy, up 25% from last week, with the next closest teams being Carolina and Toronto, the only other teams to have greater than a 1% chance of winning it, both at 6%. We’ve calculated that Boston has a 19% chance of winning the Stanley Cup, up 5% from last week, with Toronto, Carolina, and Dallas the next most likely, at 9%, 8%, and 7%, respectively.
Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.
The top 5
1. Boston Bruins (1632, ▲19)
Record: 32-4-4, 1st in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 82% (▲25)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 19% (▲5)
Last week: 4-0-0
- January 2: Won 2-1 vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (7th, 1540)
- January 5: Won 5-2 @ Los Angeles Kings (12th, 1524)
- January 7: Won 4-2 @ San Jose Sharks (28th, 1426)
- January 8: Won 7-1 @ Anaheim Ducks (31st, 1383)
Next week:
- January 12: vs. Seattle Kraken (14th, 1520)
- January 14: vs. Toronto Maple Leafs (2nd, 1591)
2. Toronto Maple Leafs ▲1 (1591, ▼3)
Record: 25-9-7, 2nd in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 98%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 6% (▼4)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▼1)
Last week: 2-1-1
- January 3: Lost in SO 6-5 vs. St. Louis Blues (18th, 1509)
- January 5: Lost 5-1 vs. Seattle Kraken (14th, 1520)
- January 7: Won 4-1 vs. Detroit Red Wings (24th, 1465)
- January 8: Won 6-2 @ Philadelphia Flyers (26th, 1457)
Next week:
- January 11: vs. Nashville Predators (19th, 1507)
- January 12: @ Detroit Red Wings (24th, 1465)
- January 14: @ Boston Bruins (1st, 1632)
3. Carolina Hurricanes ▼1 (1578, ▼21)
Record: 25-8-7, 1st in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 98% (▼1)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 6% (▼16)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 8% (▼3)
Last week: 0-2-1
- January 3: Lost 5-3 @ New York Rangers (5th, 1555)
- January 5: Lost 5-3 vs. Nashville Predators (19th, 1507)
- January 7: Lost in SO 4-3 @ Columbus Blue Jackets (30th, 1396)
Next week:
- January 10: vs. New Jersey Devils (17th, 1513)
- January 12: @ Columbus Blue Jackets (30th, 1396)
- January 14: vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (7th, 1540)
- January 15: vs. Vancouver Canucks (25th, 1464)
4. Dallas Stars (1559, ▼12)
Record: 24-11-6, 1st in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 96% (▼2)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 1% (▼4)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 7% (▼2)
Last week: 1-2-0
- January 3: Lost 3-2 @ Los Angeles Kings (12th, 1524)
- January 4: Lost 2-0 @ Anaheim Ducks (31st, 1383)
- January 8: Won 5-1 vs. Florida Panthers (20th, 1504)
Next week:
- January 10: @ New York Islanders (16th, 1514)
- January 12: @ New York Rangers (5th, 1555)
- January 14: vs. Calgary Flames (11th, 1529)
5. New York Rangers ▲3 (1555, ▲13)
Record: 22-12-7, 4th in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 78% (▲14)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: <1%
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 5% (▲1)
Last week: 2-0-1
- January 3: Won 5-3 vs. Carolina Hurricanes (3rd, 1578)
- January 5: Won 4-1 @ Montreal Canadiens (29th, 1408)
- January 7: Lost in OT 4-3 @ New Jersey Devils (17th, 1513)
Next week:
- January 10: vs. Minnesota Wild (9th, 1538)
- January 12: vs. Dallas Stars (4th, 1559)
- January 15: vs. Montreal Canadiens (29th, 1408)
Overall Ratings
1 Boston Bruins 1632 (▲19) 2 Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1) 1591 (▼3) 3 Carolina Hurricanes (▼1) 1578 (▼21) 4 Dallas Stars 1559 (▼12) 5 New York Rangers (▲3) 1555 (▲13) 6 Washington Capitals 1544 (▼2) 7 Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1) 1540 (▼6) 8 Tampa Bay Lightning (▼3) 1539 (▼9) 9 (tie) Minnesota Wild 1538 (▼2) 9 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲4) 1538 (▲19) 11 Calgary Flames (▼1) 1529 (▼2) 12 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼1) 1524 (▼3) 12 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲3) 1524 (▲11) 14 Seattle Kraken (▲7) 1520 (▲27) 15 Vegas Golden Knights (▲2) 1517 (▲6) 16 New York Islanders (▼4) 1514 (▼7) 17 New Jersey Devils (▼3) 1513 (▼1) 18 St. Louis Blues (▲1) 1509 (▲12) 19 Nashville Predators (▲4) 1507 (▲25) 20 Florida Panthers 1504 (▲8) 21 Buffalo Sabres (▼3) 1503 (▲2) 22 Colorado Avalanche (▼6) 1498 (▼14) 23 Ottawa Senators (▲1) 1471 (▼3) 24 Detroit Red Wings (▼2) 1465 (▼20) 25 Vancouver Canucks 1464 (▼4) 26 Philadelphia Flyers (▲1) 1457 (▲8) 27 Arizona Coyotes (▼1) 1430 (▼27) 28 San Jose Sharks 1426 (▼4) 29 Montreal Canadiens 1408 (▼1) 30 Columbus Blue Jackets 1396 (▼11) 31 Anaheim Ducks 1383 32 Chicago Blackhawks 1374 (▲5)
Chances of Winning Division
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes 61% (▼15) 2 New Jersey Devils 12% (▲5) 3 New York Rangers (▲2) 11% (▲7) 4 Washington Capitals 8% (▲3) 5 Pittsburgh Penguins (▼2) 7% (▲1) 6 New York Islanders 2% 7 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets <1% 7 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers <1%
Atlantic Division
1 Boston Bruins 91% (▲14) 2 Toronto Maple Leafs 8% (▼10) 3 Tampa Bay Lightning 1% (▼3) 4 (tie) Buffalo Sabres <1% 4 (tie) Detroit Red Wings <1% 4 (tie) Florida Panthers <1% 4 (tie) Montreal Canadiens <1% 4 (tie) Ottawa Senators <1%
Central Division
1 Dallas Stars 45% (▼17) 2 Winnipeg Jets 34% (▲19) 3 Minnesota Wild 12% (▼1) 4 Colorado Avalanche 4% (▼3) 5 Nashville Predators 3% (▲2) 6 St. Louis Blues (▼1) 2% (▲1) 7 (tie) Arizona Coyotes <1% 7 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks <1%
Pacific Division
1 Vegas Golden Knights 36% (▼2) 2 Seattle Kraken (▲2) 28% (▲14) 3 Los Angeles Kings (▼1) 17% 4 Calgary Flames (▼1) 10% (▼6) 5 Edmonton Oilers (▼1) 8% (▼6) 6 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1) <1% 6 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲1) <1% 6 (tie) Vancouver Canucks <1% (▼1)
Making the Playoffs
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes 98% (▼1) 2 New Jersey Devils 79% (▲4) 3 New York Rangers (▲2) 78% (▲14) 4 Washington Capitals (▼1) 74% (▲1) 5 Pittsburgh Penguins (▼2) 68% (▼5) 6 New York Islanders 42% (▼8) 7 Philadelphia Flyers 3% 8 Columbus Blue Jackets <1%
Atlantic Division
1 Boston Bruins >99% 2 Toronto Maple Leafs 98% 3 Tampa Bay Lightning 84% (▼3) 4 Buffalo Sabres 40% (▲11) 5 Florida Panthers (▲1) 14% (▲3) 6 Detroit Red Wings (▼1) 11% (▼15) 7 Ottawa Senators (▼1) 10% (▼1) 8 Montreal Canadiens <1% (▼1)
Central Division
1 Dallas Stars 96% (▼2) 2 Winnipeg Jets 93% (▲8) 3 Minnesota Wild 77% (▼5) 4 Colorado Avalanche 54% (▼15) 5 Nashville Predators (▲1) 48% (▲19) 6 St. Louis Blues (▼1) 42% (▲9) 7 Arizona Coyotes 2% (▼11) 8 Chicago Blackhawks <1%
Pacific Division
1 Vegas Golden Knights 90% (▲2) 2 Seattle Kraken (▲3) 84% (▲18) 3 Los Angeles Kings (▼1) 78% (▲4) 4 Calgary Flames (▼1) 65% (▼7) 5 Edmonton Oilers (▼1) 60% (▼9) 6 Vancouver Canucks 12% (▼8) 7 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲1) <1% 7 (tie) San Jose Sharks <1% (▼1)
Winning the President’s Trophy
1 Boston Bruins 82% (▲25) 2 (tie) Carolina Hurricanes 6% (▼16) 2 (tie) Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1) 6% (▼4) 4 (tie) Dallas Stars 1% (▼4) 4 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1) 1% (▼1) 4 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲2) 1%
Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.
Winning the Stanley Cup
1 Boston Bruins 19% (▲5) 2 Toronto Maple Leafs (▲1) 9% (▼1) 3 Carolina Hurricanes (▼1) 8% (▼3) 4 Dallas Stars 7% (▼2) 5 (tie) Minnesota Wild 5% 5 (tie) New York Rangers (▲2) 5% (▲1) 5 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲2) 5% (▲1) 8 (tie) Calgary Flames (▼1) 4% 8 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▲5) 4% (▲1) 8 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▲9) 4% (▲2) 8 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▼3) 4% (▼1) 8 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▲5) 4% (▲1) 8 (tie) Washington Capitals (▼1) 4% 14 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▼7) 3% (▼1) 14 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼1) 3% 14 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼7) 3% (▼1) 17 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼4) 2% (▼1) 17 (tie) New York Islanders 2% 17 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲2) 2% (▲1) 17 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▲2) 2% (▲1) 21 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▼2) 1% 21 (tie) Florida Panthers (▼2) 1% 23 (tie) Anaheim Ducks (▲2) <1% 23 (tie) Arizona Coyotes (▲2) <1% 23 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks (▲2) <1% 23 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets (▲2) <1% 23 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▼4) <1% (▼1) 23 (tie) Montreal Canadiens (▲2) <1% 23 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲2) <1% 23 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers (▲2) <1% 23 (tie) San Jose Sharks (▲2) <1% 23 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▼4) <1% (▼1)