The McDonald NHL Power Ratings reports are back! After a long hiatus, I’ve returned, and the season looks quite interesting.
Boston is our top-ranked team, with a current score of 1613 rating points, above that “great team” 1600 rating point level. They are having an amazing season, with a 28-4-4 record. Surprisingly, two of their overtime losses came in the past week, as they lost 3-2 in a shootout to 24th-ranked Ottawa and 4-3 in overtime to 18th-ranked Buffalo. But, they also had a 3-1 win over 14th-ranked New Jersey, so we actually gave them a 1 point bump in their rating. We’re giving them a greater than 99% chance of making the playoffs, a greater than even (57%) chance of winning the President’s Trophy, and a 14% chance of winning the Stanley Cup, even though the season isn’t even half over yet! But, things can change, so it’ll be interesting to see how the rest of the season plays out.
Carolina is the number 2 ranked team this week, up one position from last week. They are sitting with 1599 rating points, just one point under the “great team” line. We bumped them up 7 rating points and one position this week. Although they had an easy week, they did go 3-0-0, with shutouts in regulation time over bottom-ranked Chicago and 20th-ranked Florida, and a shootout win over 14th-ranked New Jersey. We’re giving them a 99% chance of making the playoffs, and the second most likely team to win the President’s Trophy (22%) and Stanley Cup (11%).
Toronto is ranked number 3 this week, down from 2nd last week. They played three games on the road last week, beating 19th-ranked St. Louis in overtime, losing to 26th-ranked Arizona, then bouncing back by beating 16th-ranked Colorado. We’ve calculated that they’ve got a 98% chance of making the playoffs, and a 10% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.
The surprising Dallas Stars come in 4th place in our rankings this week. They had an outstanding week, winning all three of their games in regulation time, with victories over 23rd-ranked Nashville, 9th-ranked Minnesota, and 28th-ranked San Jose. Their impressive showing gave them a 19 point bump in rating points from the boys in the back room, which moved them up from 5th in last week’s rankings. We’re giving them a 98% chance of making the playoffs and a 9% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.
Rounding out this week’s top 5 is Tampa Bay, who moved into these hallowed heights with a 3-0-0 week, moving them up from 7th in last week’s rankings. They defeated 29th-ranked Montreal and 26th-ranked Arizona in regulation time, as well as the 8th-ranked New York Rangers in a shootout. Despite being in the top 5 in our rankings, they are 3rd in the Atlantic Division, behind #1 Boston and #3 Toronto! What a tough division!
The top performing team this week was the aforementioned Dallas, with their 3-0-0 week and a 19-point leap in rating points. Stinkers this week included bottom-ranked Chicago, who dropped 20 rating points to an abysmal 1369 score after losing all 4 of this week’s games in regulation time, and Pittsburgh, last week’s #4 who went 0-2-1 and dropped 19 rating points and 2 ranking positions.
Here’s the rankings and ratings. Changes shown are from last week’s report.
The top 5
1. Boston Bruins (1613, ▲1)
Record: 28-4-4, 1st in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: >99%
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 57% (▼3)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 14%
Last week: 1-0-2
- December 27: Lost in SO 3-2 @ Ottawa Senators (24th, 1474)
- December 28: Won 3-1 @ New Jersey Devils (14th, 1514)
- December 31: Lost in OT 4-3 vs. Buffalo Sabres (18th, 1501)
Next week:
- January 2: vs. Pittsburgh Penguins (6th, 1546)
- January 5: @ Los Angeles Kings (15th, 1513)
- January 7: @ San Jose Sharks (28th, 1430)
- January 8: @ Anaheim Ducks (31st, 1383)
2. Carolina Hurricanes ▲1 (1599, ▲7)
Record: 25-6-6, 1st in Metropolitan Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 99% (▲1)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 22% (▲6)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 11% (▲1)
Last week: 3-0-0
- December 27: Won 3-0 vs. Chicago Blackhawks (32nd, 1369)
- December 30: Won 4-0 vs. Florida Panthers (20th, 1496)
- January 1: Won in SO 5-4 @ New Jersey Devils (14th, 1514)
Next week:
- January 3: @ New York Rangers (8th, 1542)
- January 5: vs. Nashville Predators (23rd, 1482)
- January 7: @ Columbus Blue Jackets (30th, 1407)
3. Toronto Maple Leafs ▼1 (1594, ▼4)
Record: 23-8-6, 2nd in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 98% (▲1)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 10% (▼2)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 10% (▼1)
Last week: 2-1-0
- December 27: Won in OT 5-4 @ St. Louis Blues (19th, 1497)
- December 29: Lost 6-3 @ Arizona Coyotes (26th, 1457)
- December 31: Won 6-2 @ Colorado Avalanche (16th, 1512)
Next week:
- January 3: vs. St. Louis Blues (19th, 1497)
- January 5: vs. Seattle Kraken (21st, 1493)
- January 7: vs. Detroit Red Wings (22nd, 1485)
- January 8: @ Philadelphia Flyers (27th, 1449)
4. Dallas Stars ▲1 (1571, ▲19)
Record: 23-9-6, 1st in Central Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 98% (▲4)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 5% (▲3)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 9% (▲2)
Last week: 3-0-0
- December 27: Won 3-2 @ Nashville Predators (23rd, 1482)
- December 29: Won 4-1 @ Minnesota Wild (9th, 1540)
- December 31: Won 5-2 vs. San Jose Sharks (28th, 1430)
Next week:
- January 3: @ Los Angeles Kings (15th, 1513)
- January 4: @ Anaheim Ducks (31st, 1383)
- January 8: vs. Florida Panthers (20th, 1496)
5. Tampa Bay Lightning ▲2 (1548, ▲8)
Record: 23-11-1, 3rd in Atlantic Division
Chances of:
- Making the playoffs: 87% (▲8)
- Winning the President’s Trophy: 2% (▲1)
- Winning the Stanley Cup: 5% (▲1)
Last week: 3-0-0
- December 28: Won 4-1 vs. Montreal Canadiens (29th, 1409)
- December 29: Won in SO 2-1 vs. New York Rangers (8th, 1542)
- December 31: Won 5-3 vs. Arizona Coyotes (26th, 1457)
Next week:
- January 3: @ Chicago Blackhawks (32nd, 1369)
- January 4: @ Minnesota Wild (9th, 1540)
- January 6: @ Winnipeg Jets (13th, 1519)
Overall Ratings
1 Boston Bruins 1613 (▲1) 2 Carolina Hurricanes (▲1) 1599 (▲7) 3 Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1) 1594 (▼4) 4 Dallas Stars (▲1) 1571 (▲19) 5 Tampa Bay Lightning (▲2) 1548 (▲8) 6 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼2) 1546 (▼19) 6 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲2) 1546 (▲11) 8 New York Rangers (▼2) 1542 9 Minnesota Wild 1540 (▲8) 10 Calgary Flames (▲1) 1531 (▲5) 11 Edmonton Oilers (▲2) 1527 (▲8) 12 New York Islanders (▲2) 1521 (▲4) 13 Winnipeg Jets (▲3) 1519 (▲7) 14 New Jersey Devils (▲3) 1514 (▲4) 15 Los Angeles Kings 1513 (▼2) 16 Colorado Avalanche (▼6) 1512 (▼17) 17 Vegas Golden Knights (▼5) 1511 (▼10) 18 Buffalo Sabres (▲3) 1501 (▲2) 19 St. Louis Blues (▲1) 1497 (▼3) 20 Florida Panthers (▼2) 1496 (▼8) 21 Seattle Kraken (▼2) 1493 (▼8) 22 Detroit Red Wings 1485 (▲2) 23 Nashville Predators 1482 (▲1) 24 Ottawa Senators (▲1) 1474 (▲6) 25 Vancouver Canucks (▼1) 1468 (▼6) 26 Arizona Coyotes 1457 (▲14) 27 Philadelphia Flyers 1449 (▲11) 28 San Jose Sharks 1430 (▼4) 29 Montreal Canadiens 1409 (▼13) 30 Columbus Blue Jackets 1407 (▲2) 31 Anaheim Ducks (▲1) 1383 (▼5) 32 Chicago Blackhawks (▼1) 1369 (▼20)
Chances of Winning Division
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes 76% (▲14) 2 New Jersey Devils (▲1) 7% (▼1) 3 Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1) 6% (▼12) 4 Washington Capitals (▲1) 5% (▲1) 5 New York Rangers (▼1) 4% (▼2) 6 New York Islanders 2% 7 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets <1% 7 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers <1%
Atlantic Division
1 Boston Bruins 77% 2 Toronto Maple Leafs 18% (▼2) 3 Tampa Bay Lightning 4% (▲1) 4 (tie) Buffalo Sabres <1% 4 (tie) Detroit Red Wings <1% 4 (tie) Florida Panthers <1% 4 (tie) Montreal Canadiens <1% 4 (tie) Ottawa Senators <1%
Central Division
1 Dallas Stars 62% (▲20) 2 Winnipeg Jets (▲1) 15% (▼2) 3 Minnesota Wild (▲1) 13% (▼2) 4 Colorado Avalanche (▼2) 7% (▼14) 5 (tie) Nashville Predators 1% (▼1) 5 (tie) St. Louis Blues 1% (▼1) 7 (tie) Arizona Coyotes <1% 7 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks <1%
Pacific Division
1 Vegas Golden Knights 38% (▼4) 2 Los Angeles Kings (▲1) 17% (▲3) 3 Calgary Flames (▲1) 16% (▲3) 4 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲1) 14% (▲4) 4 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▼2) 14% (▼5) 6 Vancouver Canucks 1% (▼1) 7 (tie) Anaheim Ducks <1% 7 (tie) San Jose Sharks <1%
Making the Playoffs
Metropolitan Division
1 Carolina Hurricanes 99% (▲1) 2 New Jersey Devils (▲1) 75% (▲1) 3 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼1) 73% (▼14) 3 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲2) 73% (▲9) 5 New York Rangers (▼1) 64% (▼3) 6 New York Islanders 50% (▲2) 7 Philadelphia Flyers 3% (▲1) 8 Columbus Blue Jackets <1%
Atlantic Division
1 Boston Bruins >99% 2 Toronto Maple Leafs 98% (▲1) 3 Tampa Bay Lightning 87% (▲8) 4 Buffalo Sabres 29% 5 Detroit Red Wings 26% (▲1) 6 (tie) Florida Panthers 11% (▼8) 6 (tie) Ottawa Senators (▲1) 11% (▲3) 8 Montreal Canadiens 1% (▼3)
Central Division
1 Dallas Stars 98% (▲4) 2 Winnipeg Jets (▲1) 85% (▲5) 3 Minnesota Wild (▲1) 82% (▲6) 4 Colorado Avalanche (▼2) 69% (▼13) 5 St. Louis Blues 33% (▼4) 6 Nashville Predators 29% (▼1) 7 Arizona Coyotes 13% (▲4) 8 Chicago Blackhawks <1%
Pacific Division
1 Vegas Golden Knights 88% (▼2) 2 Los Angeles Kings (▲1) 74% (▲3) 3 Calgary Flames (▲1) 72% (▲5) 4 Edmonton Oilers (▲1) 69% (▲9) 5 Seattle Kraken (▼3) 66% (▼8) 6 Vancouver Canucks 20% (▼6) 7 San Jose Sharks 1% (▼1) 8 Anaheim Ducks <1%
Winning the President’s Trophy
1 Boston Bruins 57% (▼3) 2 Carolina Hurricanes 22% (▲6) 3 Toronto Maple Leafs 10% (▼2) 4 Dallas Stars (▲1) 5% (▲3) 5 Tampa Bay Lightning (▲1) 2% (▲1) 6 (tie) New Jersey Devils 1% 6 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼2) 1% (▼2) 6 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights 1% 6 (tie) Winnipeg Jets 1%
Everyone else has less than a 1% chance of winning the President’s Trophy.
Winning the Stanley Cup
1 Boston Bruins 14% 2 Carolina Hurricanes (▲1) 11% (▲1) 3 Toronto Maple Leafs (▼1) 10% (▼1) 4 Dallas Stars 9% (▲2) 5 (tie) Minnesota Wild (▲1) 5% 5 (tie) Tampa Bay Lightning (▲2) 5% (▲1) 7 (tie) Calgary Flames 4% 7 (tie) Edmonton Oilers (▲5) 4% (▲1) 7 (tie) New York Rangers 4% 7 (tie) Pittsburgh Penguins (▼2) 4% (▼2) 7 (tie) Washington Capitals (▲5) 4% (▲1) 7 (tie) Winnipeg Jets (▲5) 4% (▲1) 13 (tie) Colorado Avalanche (▼6) 3% (▼1) 13 (tie) Los Angeles Kings (▼1) 3% 13 (tie) New Jersey Devils (▼1) 3% 13 (tie) Vegas Golden Knights (▼6) 3% (▼1) 17 (tie) New York Islanders (▲1) 2% 17 (tie) Seattle Kraken (▼5) 2% (▼1) 19 (tie) Buffalo Sabres (▲1) 1% 19 (tie) Detroit Red Wings (▲1) 1% 19 (tie) Florida Panthers (▲1) 1% 19 (tie) Nashville Predators (▲1) 1% 19 (tie) St. Louis Blues (▼1) 1% (▼1) 19 (tie) Vancouver Canucks (▲1) 1% 25 (tie) Anaheim Ducks <1% 25 (tie) Arizona Coyotes <1% 25 (tie) Chicago Blackhawks <1% 25 (tie) Columbus Blue Jackets <1% 25 (tie) Montreal Canadiens <1% 25 (tie) Ottawa Senators <1% 25 (tie) Philadelphia Flyers <1% 25 (tie) San Jose Sharks <1%