After the third last weekend of the CFL season, unbelievably 8 teams are still in contention for playoff spots! It should make for an exciting final two weeks!
There were two games on Friday. The first game saw Montreal head to Ottawa to face the RedBlacks. In a close game, Montreal beat Ottawa 34-30. After a high-scoring first half, Ottawa led 24-17, but were held scoreless in the third quarter, while Montreal scored 17 second half points to win the game. Ottawa had a chance to go ahead late in the game, but quarterback Nick Arbuckle fumbled the ball when he was sacked on the Montreal 39 yard line with 33 seconds left, and Montreal recovered the ball.
The nightcap featured Hamilton travelling to Calgary. Needing a win to try to prevent a Saskatchewan crossover in the playoffs, Hamilton came through, beating Calgary 35-32. It was Hamilton’s first win in Calgary since 2004. In an exciting finish, Calgary took a 32-27 lead on a touchdown with 1:03 left in the game, and on their ensuing possession, Hamilton quickly moved the ball down the field and scored with 11 seconds left to earn the victory.
There were also two games on Saturday. In the early game, 1st place in the East Toronto travelled to Edmonton to face the 5th place in the West Edmonton. In a surprisingly close game, Toronto scored 16 4th quarter points to come back to beat Edmonton 28-23. Toronto scored the winning touchdown with 32 seconds left in the game on a 25 yard run by running back A.J. Ouellette. Toronto kicker Boris Bede was the star of the game for Toronto as he made all 5 of his field goal attempts, scoring 15 of the Argonauts’ 28 points. On the Elks side, running back Kevin Brown carried the ball 19 times for 121 yards and a touchdown.
In the last game of the weekend, Winnipeg started their second-string quarterback as they faced British Columbia in Vancouver. It was a meaningless game for Winnipeg, but very meaningful for BC as they fight with Calgary for 2nd place in the West division and a home playoff game. In the end, British Columbia defeated Winnipeg 40-32. In a game with lots of offense, BC scored two pick-6 interceptions to help them to the victory. On the offensive side of the ball, James Butler rushed 14 times for 104 yards for the Lions, while for Winnipeg, quarterback Dru Brown passed for 325 yards and 3 touchdowns (5 if you count his two interceptions that were returned for touchdowns). Special teams were exciting as well, with the Bombers’ Janarion Grant returning a punt 94 yards for a touchdown, and 245 total return yards (172 on 5 punt returns and 73 on 4 kickoff returns). But, he was outdone by the Lions’ Terry Williams who totalled 341 return yards, with 155 on 3 missed field goal returns, one of which was for 90 yards, 152 on 5 kickoff returns, and 34 on 3 punt returns.
Looking at the playoff picture, in the West, Winnipeg has clinched first place, but British Columbia and Calgary are battling it out for second place and a home game in the West Semi-Final. BC is currently in 2nd spot with an 11-5 record, but the Stampeders are close behind at 10-6. BC faces bottom-ranked Edmonton next week and top-ranked Winnipeg in the last week, while Calgary has a home-and-home series with struggling Saskatchewan. We’re giving BC a 90% chance of finishing second.
In the East, 5 teams are still in the hunt for playoff spots in the 4 team division! Toronto leads with a 10-6 record, and we’re giving them an 80% chance of winning the division. Montreal is next at 8-8, and they’re the only other team with a chance of winning the East, with a 20% chance. Hamilton is currently in 3rd with a 6-10 record, but the West’s Saskatchewan still is holding out hope for a cross-over playoff position. They are also 6-10, but they need to finish with a better record than the 3rd-place East team to cross over. Finally, Ottawa, at 4-12, still has a chance for a playoff spot. Hamilton and Ottawa have a home-and-home series to end the season, and Saskatchewan has the same with Calgary. We’ve calculated that Hamilton has a 77% chance of getting that last spot, followed by Saskatchewan with an 18% chance, and Ottawa at 6% chance.
Week 19 Results
Montreal 34 at Ottawa 30
Hamilton 35 at Calgary 32
Toronto 28 at Edmonton 23
Winnipeg 32 at British Columbia 40
McDonald CFL Power Ratings
There wasn’t much change in our rankings, only Hamilton and Saskatchewan changing spots for 6th and 7th. Winnipeg remains the top-ranked team, with Calgary the second best, despite trailing 4th-ranked British Columbia in the standings. Toronto continues to be the top Eastern team, with a very respectable 1546 rating. Ottawa and Edmonton are battling it out for the worst ranking, with Edmonton currently the worst team with 1401 rating points, but Ottawa is only one rating point ahead at 1402!
| Ranking | Team | Rating | Record |
| 1 | Winnipeg | 1624 (▼15) | 14-3, 1st West |
| 2 | Calgary | 1553 (▼17) | 10-6, 3rd West |
| 3 | Toronto | 1546 (▲10) | 10-6, 1st East |
| 4 | British Columbia | 1542 (▲15) | 11-5, 2nd West |
| 5 | Montreal | 1502 (▲12) | 8-8, 2nd East |
| 6 (▲1) | Hamilton | 1488 (▲18) | 6-10, 3rd East |
| 7 (▼1) | Saskatchewan | 1473 | 6-10, 4th West |
| 8 | Ottawa | 1402 (▼11) | 4-12, 4th East |
| 9 | Edmonton | 1401 (▼10) | 4-13, 5th West |
Grey Cup Predictions
Winnipeg remains the favourite to win the Grey Cup, with a 40% chance. Their chances dropped 3% from last week based on their loss to BC this weekend, although they did start their second-string quarterback. But, if 1st-stringer Zach Collaros goes down, they’ll need to rely on their backup. Toronto is the favourite from the East, now with a 24% chance, up 1% from last week. Grey Cup host Saskatchewan continues to see their hopes fade, with only a 3% chance of making the game, and a 1% chance of winning it.
Overall, there’s a 61% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, down 4% from last week’s report. We’ve also determined that there’s a 18% chance of 4th-place Saskatchewan crossing over to the East for the playoffs (down 15% from last week), versus no chance of an Eastern team crossing over to the West (same as last week).
| Grey Cup Ranking | Team | Rating | Win Grey Cup |
| 1 | Winnipeg | 1624 | 40% (▼3) |
| 2 | Toronto | 1546 | 24% (▲1) |
| 3 (▲1) | Montreal | 1502 | 11% (▲2) |
| 4 (▲1) | British Columbia | 1542 | 10% (▲3) |
| 5 (▼2) | Calgary | 1553 | 9% (▼3) |
| 6 | Hamilton | 1488 | 5% (▲2) |
| 7 | Saskatchewan | 1473 | 1% (▼1) |
| 8 | Ottawa | 1402 | <1% |
| 9 | Edmonton | 1401 | — |
Our Full Predictions
Here’s our full predictions.
| Team | Rating | Make Playoffs | Host Playoff Game | Win Division | Make Division Final | Make Grey Cup | Win Grey Cup |
| Winnipeg 14-3, 1st in West |
1624 | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ | ✔ | 65% | 40% |
| Toronto 10-6, 1st in East |
1546 | ✔ | ✔ | 80% | 92% | 56% | 24% |
| Montreal 8-8, 2nd in East |
1502 | ✔ | ✔ | 20% | 66% | 28% | 11% |
| British Columbia 11-5, 2nd in West |
1542 | ✔ | 90% | — | 54% | 18% | 10% |
| Calgary 10-6, 3rd in West |
1553 | ✔ | 10% | — | 46% | 16% | 9% |
| Hamilton 6-10, 3rd in East |
1488 | 77% | — | — | 32% | 12% | 5% |
| Saskatchewan 6-10, 4th in West |
1473 | 18% | — | — | 7% | 3% | 1% |
| Ottawa 4-12, 4th in East |
1402 | 6% | — | — | 2% | 1% | <1% |
| Edmonton 4-13, 5th in West |
1401 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Week 20 Game Predictions
Friday’s games
- Ottawa (31%) at Hamilton (68%)
- British Columbia (62%) at Edmonton (37%)
Saturday’s games
- Toronto (49%) at Montreal (50%)
- Calgary (53%) at Saskatchewan (46%)