We’re almost to the halfway point of the CFL season, and this week was … interesting!
Thursday night’s game saw 2-6 Montreal head to Winnipeg to face the 9-0 Blue Bombers. If you expected this game to be a blowout, as we here at McDonald CFL Power Ratings did, you were in for a surprise! In a huge upset, Montreal defeated Winnipeg 20-17 in overtime! The boys in the back room gave Winnipeg a 78% chance of winning and Montreal a 21% chance, and even I thought those odds were a little low, but with odds like that, Montreal is expected to win 1 in 5 times. And they did, just barely! On the last play of regulation time, with the game tied at 17, Winnipeg had the ball on the Montreal 24, and looked for an easy 32-yard chip shot field goal from Marc Liegghio for the win. But, he kicked it wide, and in the second most exciting play in Canadian football (a missed rouge — just slightly less exciting than a successful rouge), kick returner Tyson Philpot ran the ball out from ten yards deep in the endzone to the 6 yard line to preserve the tie. Montreal had first possession in overtime and managed to move the ball zero yards, so David Cote booted a 43-yarder to give the Als the 20-17 lead. On Winnipeg’s possession, they only moved the ball 6 yards, so Liegghio lined up for an easy 37-yarder to tie the game. BUT HE HIT THE UPRIGHT!!! Montreal walked away with the 20-17 victory.
In Friday night’s game, Toronto faced the Ticats in Hamilton. Although Hamilton had to go with their second string quarterback Matthew Shiltz, then their third stringer Jamie Newman when Shiltz was injured, Hamilton was able to defeat Toronto 34-27. Hamilton scored 17 points in the fourth quarter for the victory. The victory moved Hamilton within one game of first place Toronto, and kept them even with Montreal for 2nd in the East.
In what was anticipated to be the most exciting game of the weekend, second place in the West British Columbia travelled to Calgary to face the third place Stampeders on Saturday. Calgary was ranked number 2 in the McDonald CFL Power Ratings and BC number 3, so this was expected to be a good game, and it didn’t disappoint. Although the Stampeders led most of the game, the Lions scored 20 fourth quarter points and took the lead on a field goal with 2 seconds left, as British Columbia beat Calgary 41-40. Despite throwing two interceptions, up-and-coming star Lions quarterback Nathan Rourke completed 39 of 53 passes for 488 yards and two touchdowns, and ran for two more TDs! Receiver Bryan Burnham caught 8 passes for 165 yards and a touchdown, and Dominique Rhymes caught 7 for 101 yards and his own touchdown. On the other side of the ball, Stamps QB Bo Levi Mitchell became the Calgary all-time leader in passing yards, completing 18 of 32 passes for 206 yards and two touchdowns.
In the second game of Saturday’s doubleheader, struggling Saskatchewan headed to Edmonton to face the even more struggling Elks. In a penalty-ridden game that saw your intrepid author frequently yelling at the TV, Saskatchewan outscored Edmonton 34-23. Saskatchewan racked up 9 penalties for 100 yards, while Edmonton outdid them with 12 penalties of their own for 140 yards. But it was an exciting game when penalties weren’t killing or extending drives. With 56 seconds in the first half, the Riders led 14-10 and I left the room for a couple minutes. When I came back, the half was over and I found I had missed two touchdowns, and the score was 21-17 at the half. After that, the third quarter was a lot quieter, with the only point coming on a Rider rouge (man, I love rouges!) after a booming 62 yard punt from Kaara Vedvik. In the final quarter, Saskatchewan scored 12 points to Edmonton’s 6, and came away with the victory.
Week 9 Results
Montreal 20 at Winnipeg 17 (OT)
Toronto 27 at Hamilton 34
British Columbia 41 at Calgary 40
Saskatchewan 34 at Edmonton 23
McDonald CFL Power Ratings
Despite their loss to Montreal, Winnipeg remains the top-rated team in our Power Ratings. British Columbia has moved into second, moving ahead of Calgary. With the Saskatchewan win and Toronto loss, the Riders move ahead of the Argos for 4th. Bringing up the rear continues to be Ottawa.
| Ranking | Team | Rating | Record |
| 1 | Winnipeg | 1619 (▼20) | 9-1, 1st West |
| 2 (▲1) | British Columbia | 1544 (▲15) | 7-1, 2nd West |
| 3 (▼1) | Calgary | 1539 (▼15) | 5-3, T-3rd West |
| 4 (▲1) | Saskatchewan | 1523 (▲12) | 5-4, T-3rd West |
| 5 (▼1) | Toronto | 1504 (▼12) | 4-4, 1st East |
| 6 | Hamilton | 1484 (▲12) | 3-6, T-2nd East |
| 7 | Montreal | 1479 (▲20) | 3-6, T-2nd East |
| 8 | Edmonton | 1427 (▼12) | 2-7, 5th West |
| 9 | Ottawa | 1402 | 1-7, 4th East |
Grey Cup Predictions
Winnipeg remains the favourite to win the Grey Cup, but after their loss to Montreal, their odds of winning it have dropped 5 percentage points to 36%. Despite having such an outstanding team, anything can happen, so that’s why they’re not given a 100% chance even though they are the best team in the league right now. Toronto remains second most likely, as they are the most likely team to finish first in the East. British Columbia took a big jump, increasing their chances of winning by 5% bringing them up to 14%. Edmonton is least likely to win, with less than a 1% chance of winning, and just a 6% chance of making the playoffs.
Overall, there’s a 68% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, down 2% from last week’s report. We’ve also determined that there’s an 82% chance of a 4th-place Western team crossing over to the East for the playoffs (down 4% from last week), versus less than a 1% chance of an Eastern team crossing over to the West (same as last week).
| Grey Cup Ranking | Team | Rating | Win Grey Cup |
| 1 | Winnipeg | 1619 | 36% (▼5) |
| 2 | Toronto | 1504 | 16% (▼2) |
| 3 (▲1) | British Columbia | 1544 | 14% (▲5) |
| T-4 (▼1) | Calgary | 1539 | 9% (▼2) |
| T-4 (▲1) | Saskatchewan | 1523 | 9% (▲2) |
| 6 (▲1) | Montreal | 1479 | 8% (▲3) |
| 7 (▼1) | Hamilton | 1484 | 7% (▲1) |
| 8 | Ottawa | 1402 | 1% |
| 9 (▼1) | Edmonton | 1427 | <1% (▼1) |
Our Full Predictions
Here’s our full predictions.
| Team | Rating | Make Playoffs | Host Playoff Game | Win Division | Make Division Final | Make Grey Cup | Win Grey Cup |
| Winnipeg 9-1, 1st in West |
1619 | >99% | 95% | 76% | 90% | 56% | 36% |
| Toronto 4-4, 1st in East |
1504 | 86% | 82% | 57% | 72% | 40% | 16% |
| British Columbia 7-1, 2nd in West |
1544 | 99% | 70% | 19% | 59% | 24% | 14% |
| Calgary 5-3, T-3rd in West |
1539 | 93% | 24% | 3% | 46% | 18% | 9% |
| Saskatchewan 5-4, T-3rd in West |
1523 | 83% | 11% | 2% | 40% | 17% | 9% |
| Montreal 3-6, T-2nd in East |
1479 | 65% | 58% | 23% | 45% | 22% | 8% |
| Hamilton 3-6, T-2nd in East |
1484 | 54% | 48% | 17% | 37% | 19% | 7% |
| Ottawa 1-7, 4th in East |
1402 | 13% | 11% | 3% | 8% | 3% | 1% |
| Edmonton 2-7, 5th in West |
1427 | 6% | <1% | <1% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
Week 11 Game Predictions
Friday: Edmonton (46%) at Ottawa (53%)
Friday: British Columbia (46%) at Saskatchewan (53%)
Saturday: Hamilton (44%) at Montreal (55%)
Saturday: Calgary (48%) at Toronto (51%)