It was a very unsurprising week in the CFL this week, as the games went pretty much as expected. In every game, the higher rated team won, and as a result, there’s been very little change in our rankings this week.
Thursday Night Football saw undefeated Winnipeg travel to Montreal to face the 2-5 Alouettes, where Winnipeg defeated Montreal 35-20. It wasn’t as easy a victory as the score would indicate, though, as the game was tied 14-14 after three quarters, but Winnipeg came through with three touchdowns in the final frame. Neither quarterback had a particularly good game: Winnipeg’s Zach Collaros went 15 for 26 for 210 yards, two touchdowns, and three interceptions, while Montreal’s Trevor Harris went 16 for 26 for 127 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. Montreal’s defense was the star for their team, with those three interceptions, three sacks, and a fumble recovery.
On Friday, Calgary, currently ranked 2nd in the West although they are third in the standings, headed to Ottawa to face the 1-7 RedBlacks. In a low-scoring game, Calgary beat Ottawa 17-3. Perhaps the highlight of the game came in the fourth quarter. With Calgary leading 16-0, punter Cody Grace blasted a kick 52 yards into the endzone, forcing Ottawa to give up a rouge, perhaps the most exciting play in Canadian football! Calgary QB Bo Levi Mitchell ended the game with 137 yards passing, increasing his lifetime total to just one yard behind Henry Burris for all-time passing yards for Calgary.
The first game of Saturday’s doubleheader had Hamilton visit Toronto. Toronto had a 3-3 record heading into the game, good enough for first place in the East, while Hamilton sat one win behind them in the standings, at 2-5. Toronto prevailed in this game, defeating Hamilton 34-20. Hamilton led 17-16 after three quarters, but a blocked punt that was returned for a touchdown and a pick-6 interception gave Toronto the win. Toronto QB Dane Evans was the outstanding offensive player, going 29 for 43 for 303 yards and a touchdown, but it wasn’t enough. With the win, Toronto moves above .500 for the season.
And in the final game of the weekend, Edmonton headed to BC Place to face the Lions. In a standout game, British Columbia trounced Edmonton 46-14. British Columbia QB Nathan Rourke had an amazing game, going 34 for 37 for 477 yards, 5 passing touchdowns, and 1 rushing touchdown! Dominique Rhymes was his favourite target, catching nine passes for 91 yards and three touchdowns, while Lucky Whitehead caught 6 passes for 148 yards, including a 69-yard touchdown.
Week 9 Results
Winnipeg 35 at Montreal 20
Calgary 17 at Ottawa 3
Hamilton 20 at Toronto 34
Edmonton 14 at British Columbia 46
McDonald CFL Power Ratings
There was very little change in the rankings this week, as the games all ended as expected. The only change sees Toronto move ahead of the idle Saskatchewan Roughriders for 4th place in the McDonald CFL Power Rankings. 9-0 Winnipeg unsurprisingly sits atop the rankings with a season-high 1639 McDonald CFL Power Ratings rating points. Third-in-the-West Calgary sits in second place in our rankings, ahead of second-in-the-West BC. Those two teams face off next weekend in Calgary in what will be the game to watch. Ottawa remains the lowest-ranked team with their 1-7 record.
| Ranking | Team | Rating | Record |
| 1 | Winnipeg | 1639 (▲9) | 9-0, 1st West |
| 2 | Calgary | 1554 (▲10) | 5-2, 3rd West |
| 3 | British Columbia | 1529 (▲8) | 6-1, 2nd West |
| 4 (▲1) | Toronto | 1516 (▲10) | 4-3, 1st East |
| 5 (▼1) | Saskatchewan | 1511 | 4-4, 4th West |
| 6 | Hamilton | 1472 (▼10) | 2-6, T-2nd East |
| 7 | Montreal | 1459 (▼8) | 2-6, T-2nd East |
| 8 | Edmonton | 1439 (▼8) | 2-6, 5th West |
| 9 | Ottawa | 1402 (▼9) | 1-7, 4th East |
Grey Cup Predictions
Winnipeg remains the most likely team to win the Grey Cup, with their 9-0 record. Somebody has to beat them if they’re not going to win the Grey Cup! We’re now giving them a 41% chance of winning it, up 1% from last week. Toronto is second most likely at 18%, up 2% from last week. By virtue of their not playing, Saskatchewan moved up from 6th to 5th in likelihood, passing Hamilton.
Overall, there’s a 70% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, up 2% from last week’s report. And, in an enhancement to our calculations, we’ve determined that there’s an 86% chance of a 4th-place Western team crossing over to the East for the playoffs, versus less than a 1% chance of an Eastern team crossing over to the West.
| Grey Cup Ranking | Team | Rating | Win Grey Cup |
| 1 | Winnipeg | 1639 | 41% (▲1) |
| 2 | Toronto | 1516 | 18% (▲2) |
| 3 | Calgary | 1554 | 11% |
| 4 | British Columbia | 1529 | 9% |
| 5 (▲1) | Saskatchewan | 1511 | 7% |
| 6 (▼1) | Hamilton | 1472 | 6% (▼2) |
| 7 | Montreal | 1459 | 5% (▼1) |
| T-8 | Ottawa | 1402 | 1% (▼1) |
| T-8 | Edmonton | 1439 | 1% (▼1) |
Our Full Predictions
Here’s our full predictions.
| Team | Rating | Make Playoffs | Host Playoff Game | Win Division | Make Division Final | Make Grey Cup | Win Grey Cup |
| Winnipeg 9-0, 1st in West |
1639 | >99% | 98% | 89% | 96% | 63% | 41% |
| Toronto 4-3, 1st in East |
1516 | 93% | 91% | 74% | 84% | 50% | 18% |
| Calgary 5-2, 3rd in West |
1554 | 97% | 47% | 4% | 53% | 20% | 11% |
| British Columbia 6-1, 2nd in West |
1529 | 98% | 47% | 7% | 49% | 17% | 9% |
| Saskatchewan 4-4, 4th in West |
1511 | 72% | 7% | 1% | 34% | 14% | 7% |
| Hamilton 2-6, T-2nd in East |
1472 | 50% | 46% | 12% | 33% | 16% | 6% |
| Montreal 2-6, T-2nd in East |
1459 | 53% | 48% | 11% | 33% | 15% | 5% |
| Ottawa 1-7, 4th in East |
1402 | 18% | 15% | 3% | 10% | 4% | 1% |
| Edmonton 2-6, 5th in West |
1439 | 18% | <1% | <1% | 8% | 3% | 1% |
Week 10 Game Predictions
Thursday: Montreal (21%) at Winnipeg (78%)
Friday: Toronto (49%) at Hamilton (50%)
Saturday: British Columbia (39%) at Calgary (60%)
Saturday: Saskatchewan (52%) at Edmonton (47%)