McDonald CFL Power Ratings – Week 8

CFL logoThe CFL continued into Week 8 of the schedule, highlighted by a Saturday showdown between the top two teams in the league.

On Thursday, 3rd-place Hamilton hosted 2nd-place Montreal, in what could be a battle for the last playoff spot in the East, as it’s looking increasingly likely that a team from the West will cross-over to take the 3rd-place Eastern playoff spot.  Maybe the boys in the back room should calculate the odds of that!  Anyways, Hamilton beat Montreal 24-17, and the teams are now tied in 2nd at 2-5.  With Montreal moving down the field on the final drive and just enough time left for one play, quarterback Trevor Harris was removed from the game by the injury spotters after a hit that resulted in a roughness penalty, and backup QB Dominique Davis threw an interception to end the game.

In the Friday night game, British Columbia headed to Saskatchewan, with two teams heading in opposite directions.  Despite holding a 17-4 lead in the second quarter, Saskatchewan lost to BC 32-17.  Lions QB Nathan Rourke had an astounding game, completing 27 of his 33 passes for 336 yards and two touchdowns and rushing for a third TD.  The BC defense also recorded four sacks on Rider QB Cody Fajardo, who went 18 for 27 and only 168 yards.

The most anticipated game of the weekend had undefeated Winnipeg travelling to Calgary to face the second-place Stampeders.  In a game that did not disappoint, Winnipeg beat Calgary 35-28.  Calgary had held the lead 28-25 with four and a half minutes left in the game, but Winnipeg came through.  Winnipeg quarterback Zach Collaros went 22 for 33 for 270 yards and four touchdowns.  Bombers running back Brady Oliveira broke the 100 yard rushing mark, picking up 110 yards on 15 carries.

And in the least anticipated game of the weekend, winless Ottawa headed to Toronto to face the first-place Argonauts.  In a surprise, Ottawa defeated Toronto 23-13.  Ottawa QB Caleb Evans completed 24 of 29 passes for 286 yards and two touchdowns, while his Toronto counterpart, McLeod Bethel-Thompson went 24 of 40 for 340 yards and one touchdown.  Toronto failed to score in the second half of the game.

Week 8 Results

Montreal 17  at Hamilton 24
British Columbia 32  at Saskatchewan 17
Winnipeg 35  at Calgary 28
Ottawa 23  at Toronto 13

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

Winnipeg continues to be the top ranked team by far, with a huge 1630 McDonald CFL Power Ratings ratings points, with second-ranked Calgary sitting 86 points behind at 1544.  British Columbia moved up the rankings with their win over Saskatchewan, swapping places with the Riders who now dropped down to fourth.  Toronto is the top-ranked Eastern team in fifth place, as they are the only Eastern team above the 1500 average rating, albeit only at 1506.  Despite their surprising win over Toronto this week, Ottawa remains mired at the bottom of the rankings, but they have moved above the 1400 point stink line, now sitting at 1411 points.

Ranking Team Rating Record
1 Winnipeg 1630 (12) 8-0, 1st West
2 Calgary 1544 (12) 4-2, T-3rd West
3 (2) British Columbia 1521 (15) 5-1, 2nd West
4 (1) Saskatchewan 1511 (15) 4-4, T-3rd West
5 (1) Toronto 1506 (18) 3-3, 1st East
6 (1) Hamilton 1482 (11) 2-5, T-2nd East
7 (1) Montreal 1467 (11) 2-5, T-2nd East
8 Edmonton 1447 2-5, 5th West
9 Ottawa 1411 (19) 1-6, 4th East

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg’s odds of winning the Grey Cup went up significantly this week after their win over 2nd-ranked Calgary, jumping 5 percentage points to 40%!  Toronto, being the top team in the East, has been calculated to have the 2nd best chance of winning at 16%, a drop of 3% from last week.  The two last-place teams, Ottawa and Edmonton, both saw their chances of winning it all doubling, from 1% all the way up to 2%!  Saskatchewan, despite hosting the Grey Cup this year, have now seen their chances of winning it drop to 7%.

Overall, there’s a 68% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, up 1% from last week’s report.

Grey Cup Ranking Team Rating Win Grey Cup
1 Winnipeg 1630 40% (5)
2 Toronto 1506 16% (3)
3 Calgary 1544 11% (3)
4 (2) British Columbia 1521 9% (2)
5 (2) Hamilton 1482 8% (3)
6 (2) Saskatchewan 1511 7% (2)
7 (2) Montreal 1467 6% (2)
T-8 Ottawa 1411 2% (1)
T-8 Edmonton 1447 2% (1)

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.

Team Rating Make Playoffs Host Playoff Game Win Division Make Division Final Make Grey Cup Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg
8-0,
1st in West
1630 >99% 98% 87% 95% 62% 40%
Toronto
3-3,
1st in East
1506 84% 80% 58% 72% 41% 16%
Calgary
4-2,
T-3rd in West
1544 93% 45% 4% 50% 19% 11%
British Columbia
5-1,
2nd in West
1521 94% 46% 8% 48% 17% 9%
Hamilton
2-5,
T-2nd in East
1482 56% 51% 21% 41% 21% 8%
Saskatchewan
4-4,
T-3rd in West
1511 69% 10% 1% 33% 13% 7%
Montreal
2-5,
T-2nd in East
1467 57% 50% 16% 38% 18% 6%
Ottawa
1-6,
4th in East
1411 22% 18% 5% 13% 6% 2%
Edmonton
2-5,
5th in West
1447 26% 1% <1% 11% 4% 2%

Week 9 Game Predictions

Thursday: Winnipeg (65%) at Montreal (34%)
Friday: Calgary (61%) at Ottawa (38%)
Saturday: Hamilton (40%) at Toronto (59%)
Saturday: Edmonton (33%) at British Columbia (66%)

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