In a rare weekend of football, two Eastern Division teams won games, giving them 4 in the first 6 weeks of the season.
In the Thursday Night Football game, Edmonton surprised Montreal 32-31. Montreal led 31-12 late in the 3rd quarter, but three pass interference calls against Montreal defensive back Wesley Sutton turned the tide, and Edmonton came away with the win. The first pass interference call against Sutton came in the endzone, resulting in a 20 yard penalty and Edmonton ended up with a touchdown but no convert. The second was a 38 yard penalty, again leading up to an Elks touchdown, this time with the convert. The third penalty was for 50 yards, once again leading to an Edmonton TD. So, one player, 108 yards in penalties, resulting in 20 points! That third one gave Edmonton the 32-31 lead, and they held it for the victory.
Friday night’s game was a battle of the two top-ranked McDonald CFL Power Ratings teams, as undefeated Calgary headed to Winnipeg to face the undefeated defending Grey Cup champion Winnipeg Blue Bombers. In a close game, Winnipeg held on to defeat Calgary 26-19. In the final minute, trailing 26-19, Calgary QB Bo Levi Mitchell passed to receiver Kamar Jorden in the end zone. Jorden appeared to make an incredible catch, but as he hit the ground, the ball bounced out of his hands and Winnipeg DB Demerio Houston made a shoestring interception to shut down Calgary’s final drive. Winnipeg quarterback Zach Collaros completed 27 of his 38 passes for 315 yards, with Greg Ellingson catching 11 of those passes for 152 yards. For the Stampeders, running back Ka’Deem Carey rushed for 110 yards on only 12 carries.
There were two games on Saturday, with the first being Touchdown Atlantic, with Saskatchewan and Toronto facing each other in Wolfville, Nova Scotia, home of the Acadia University Axemen. In an upset, Toronto beat Saskatchewan 30-24. With the Riders leading 24-22 and trying to move the ball downfield to run out the clock, quarterback Cody Fajardo threw an interception that Argo linebacker Wynton McManis ran back for a 49 yard pick-six. Toronto followed it up with a two point convert to lead 30-24, and as Saskatchewan was making their final drive, Fajardo threw another interception and the Argonauts came away with the victory.
The last game of the weekend saw the Ottawa RedBlacks visit the Hamilton Tiger-Cats in a battle of two 0-4 teams, tied for the last playoff spot in the East. Yes, really. In a game that I had absolutely no interest in watching, Hamilton defeated Ottawa 25-23. Hamilton quarterback Dane Evans passed for 342 yards and two touchdowns, one of which gave the Ti-Cats the lead with 34 seconds left. Ottawa had a final chance to win it with a 54 yard field goal as time ran out, but the kick came up short and Hamilton had their first victory of the season.
Week 6 Results
Edmonton 32 at Montreal 31
Calgary 19 at Winnipeg 26
Saskatchewan 24 at Toronto 30
Ottawa 23 at Hamilton 25
McDonald CFL Power Ratings
There wasn’t much changes in our power rankings. Winnipeg, Calgary, and Saskatchewan remain at the top of the rankings. With Toronto’s surprising win over Saskatchewan, the Argos swapped places with British Columbia, with the Lions dropping to 5th. Hamilton’s win over Ottawa combined with Montreal’s unexpected loss to Edmonton resulted Hamilton and Montreal swapping places as well, with Hamilton now ranked 6th and Montreal 7th. Ottawa remains mired at the bottom of our rankins with their 0-5 record.
| Ranking | Team | Rating | Record |
| 1 | Winnipeg | 1609 (▲10) | 6-0, 1st West |
| 2 | Calgary | 1556 (▼9) | 4-1, T-2nd West |
| 3 | Saskatchewan | 1541 (▼13) | 4-2, T-2nd West |
| 4 (▲1) | Toronto | 1508 (▲13) | 2-2, 1st East |
| 5 (▼1) | British Columbia | 1496 | 3-1, 4th West |
| 6 (▲1) | Hamilton | 1481 (▲9) | 1-4, T-2nd East |
| 7 (▼1) | Montreal | 1466 (▼16) | 1-4, T-2nd East |
| 8 | Edmonton | 1456 (▲16) | 2-4, 5th West |
| 9 | Ottawa | 1404 (▼9) | 0-5, 4th East |
Grey Cup Predictions
We made some tweaks to our mathematical model, and that resulted in larger than expected changes in Grey Cup winning probabilities. Winnipeg remains the favourite with a 32% chance of winning, twice the probability of 2nd most-likely Toronto. It must be nice to be an Eastern team, as your chances of making the Grey Cup are pretty good! Calgary is 3rd most likely at 15%, followed by Saskatchewan at 13%. Least likely to win remains Edmonton, now tied with Ottawa for last place with a 2% win probability.
Overall, there’s a 68% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, up 1% from last week’s report.
| Grey Cup Ranking | Team | Rating | Win Grey Cup |
| 1 | Winnipeg | 1609 | 32% (▼1) |
| 2 (▲3) | Toronto | 1508 | 16% (▲6) |
| 3 (▼1) | Calgary | 1556 | 15% (▼4) |
| 4 (▼1) | Saskatchewan | 1541 | 13% (▲1) |
| 5 (▲1) | Hamilton | 1481 | 8% |
| 6 (▼2) | Montreal | 1466 | 7% (▼4) |
| 7 (▲1) | British Columbia | 1496 | 6% (▲3) |
| T-8 (▼1) | Ottawa | 1404 | 2% (▼3) |
| T-8 (▲1) | Edmonton | 1456 | 2% (▲2) |
Our Full Predictions
Here’s our full predictions.
| Team | Rating | Make Playoffs | Host Playoff Game | Win Division | Make Division Final | Make Grey Cup | Win Grey Cup |
| Winnipeg 6-0, 1st in West |
1609 | 99% | 88% | 66% | 85% | 51% | 32% |
| Toronto 2-2, 1st in East |
1508 | 84% | 82% | 57% | 72% | 41% | 16% |
| Calgary 4-1, T-2nd in West |
1556 | 94% | 55% | 18% | 58% | 26% | 15% |
| Saskatchewan 4-2, T-2nd in West |
1541 | 87% | 33% | 10% | 47% | 21% | 13% |
| Hamilton 1-4, T-2nd in East |
1481 | 53% | 49% | 20% | 39% | 20% | 8% |
| Montreal 1-4, T-2nd in East |
1466 | 56% | 51% | 18% | 38% | 18% | 7% |
| British Columbia 3-1, 4th in West |
1496 | 75% | 21% | 5% | 35% | 13% | 6% |
| Ottawa 0-5, 4th in East |
1404 | 21% | 18% | 5% | 12% | 5% | 2% |
| Edmonton 2-4, 5th in West |
1456 | 31% | 3% | <1% | 13% | 5% | 2% |
Week 7 Game Predictions
Thursday: Montreal (51%) at Ottawa (48%)
Thursday: Hamilton (41%) at British Columbia (58%)
Friday: Winnipeg (63%) at Edmonton (36%)
Saturday: Toronto (38%) at Saskatchewan (61%)