McDonald CFL Power Ratings – Week 5

CFL logoIt was a quieter week in the CFL last week, as there were only three games played.  All five Western teams played, but only Ottawa played from the East.

Thursday night’s game featured the Battle of Alberta, as Calgary travelled north to visit Edmonton.  Being ever the gracious hosts, Edmonton was soundly defeated by Calgary, 49-6.  Calgary is now 4-0, while Edmonton falls to 1-4.  The game was interrupted by a huge rainstorm, but that didn’t slow Calgary down.  Bo Levi Mitchell, the Calgary quarterback, completed 17 of 22 passes for 279 yards and two touchdowns, and receiver Malik Henry caught 6 passes for 150 yards, one of those being an 89 yard touchdown.  On the ground, running back Ka’Deem Carey gained 104 yards on 12 carries, and on defense, Calgary had two interceptions, three sacks, and two fumble recoveries, one of which resulted in a 63 yard touchdown.  Edmonton went through three quarterbacks, with two of them leaving the game due to injury.

Friday Night Football saw Ottawa heading to Regina to face the Saskatchewan Roughriders.  Saskatchewan defeated Ottawa 28-13, but the game was marred by an injury to Ottawa quarterback Jeremiah Masoli late in the game after a low hit by Rider lineman Garrett Marino.  Although the hit didn’t seem intentional, Marino made it worse by celebrating the hit over top of the injured Masoli, then uttered a racial epithet directed at the RedBlack quarterback.  Masoli required surgery and is expected to miss 12 weeks, while Marino was suspended for a CFL-record 4 games.  To this commentator, the punishment doesn’t seem sufficient to fit the crime; more appropriate would be a season-long suspension.

Saturday saw the final game of the week, with top-ranked Winnipeg heading to British Columbia to face the up-and-coming Lions.  Although it was expected to be a test for the Bombers, it wasn’t, as Winnipeg won 43-22 over BC.  Bomber QB Zach Collaros went 23 for 30 for 288 yards and three touchdowns, with receiver Dalton Schoen catching 8 of those for 117 yards and two touchdowns.  On defense, Winnipeg made three interceptions, one fumble recovery, and one sack, and on special teams, Janarion Grant returned the opening kickoff 97 yards for a touchdown.  On the BC side, quarterback Nathan Rourke passed for 278 yards and three touchdowns, although he also threw two interceptions.

The big game coming up this weekend is the Touchdown Atlantic game, with Saskatchewan and Toronto travelling to Wolfville, Nova Scotia, to play the first CFL game ever in Nova Scotia on Saturday afternoon.

Week 5 Results

Calgary 49  at Edmonton 6
Ottawa 13  at Saskatchewan 28
Winnipeg 43  at British Columbia 22

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

There were no changes to the rankings this week, although Toronto, being idle, closed the gap on BC following the Lions’ loss to Winnipeg.  Sadly, only three teams are rated above the 1500 average ranking, and all three of those teams are in the West.  The league seems quite unbalanced, with the top 4 teams all coming from the West, and all Eastern teams being ranked below average.

Ranking Team Rating Record
1 Winnipeg 1599 (12) 5-0, 1st West
2 Calgary 1565 (10) 4-0, T-2nd West
3 Saskatchewan 1554 (7) 4-1, T-2nd West
4 British Columbia 1496 (11) 3-1, 4th West
5 Toronto 1495 1-2, T-1st East
6 Montreal 1482 1-3, T-1st East
7 Hamilton 1472 0-4, T-3rd East
8 Edmonton 1440 (10) 1-4, 5th West
9 Ottawa 1413 (6) 0-4, T-3rd East

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg continues to be the Grey Cup favourite, now with a 33% chance of winning the Cup, up 4% from last week.  Calgary follows with a 19% chance.  British Columbia were the only team to change in their chances, dropping 5 percentage points down to 3%, a result of playing in that tough Western Division.  Montreal has the most chance of winning it from the East, with an 11% probability.

Overall, there’s a 67% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, up 1% from last week’s report.

Grey Cup Ranking Team Rating Win Grey Cup
1 Winnipeg 1599 33% (4)
2 Calgary 1555 19% (2)
3 Saskatchewan 1554 12%
4 Montreal 1482 11%
5 Toronto 1495 10%
6 Hamilton 1472 8%
7 (1) Ottawa 1413 5%
8 (2) British Columbia 1496 3% (5)
9 Edmonton 1440 <1%

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.

Team Rating Make Playoffs Host Playoff Game Win Division Make Division Final Make Grey Cup Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg
5-0,
1st in West
1599 99% 77% 50% 77% 50% 33%
Calgary
4-0,
T-2nd in West
1565 97% 60% 29% 60% 29% 19%
Saskatchewan
4-1,
T-2nd in West
1554 93% 43% 16% 43% 16% 12%
Montreal
1-3,
T-1st in East
1482 70% 65% 32% 65% 33% 11%
Toronto
1-2,
T-1st in East
1495 74% 71% 42% 71% 28% 10%
Hamilton
0-4,
T-3rd in East
1472 44% 40% 17% 40% 23% 8%
Ottawa
0-4,
T-3rd in East
1413 28% 25% 9% 25% 16% 5%
British Columbia
3-1,
4th in West
1496 77% 18% 5% 18% 5% 3%
Edmonton
1-4,
5th in West
1440 19% 1% <1% 1% <1% <1%

Week 6 Game Predictions

Thursday: Edmonton (37%) at Montreal (62%)
Friday: Calgary (38%) at Winnipeg (61%)
Saturday: Saskatchewan (57%) at Toronto (42%)
Saturday: Ottawa (35%) at Hamilton (64%)