Yet another exciting weekend of games in the CFL this week, although there weren’t many surprises in the final results. The West continues their dominance of the East, as Western teams defeated Eastern teams in all four games this weekend. And Winnipeg remains at the top of the field, despite a squeaker over Toronto on the 4th of July game (why is the CANADIAN Football League celebrating the US Independence Day???).
The weekend started off with Thursday Night Football, where British Columbia travelled to Ottawa to face the RedBlacks in the nation’s capital. It was probably a good idea to avoid conflicting with the Canada Day celebrations, as British Columbia triumphed over Ottawa 34-31. BC’s young Canadian quarterback, Nathan Rourke, continued to impress, going 23 for 31 and 359 yards and throwing two touchdowns, despite throwing two interceptions and losing the ball once on a fumble. He also scored a touchdown on the ground, rambling for 50 yards for the score! The Lions offense also benefited from receiver Keon Hatcher catching seven passes for 166 yards and a touchdown, and running back James Butler running for 129 yards and two touchdowns. Ottawa was led by their defense, especially DB Monshadrik Hunter who made two interceptions and recovered a fumble, as the RedBlack defense scored 17 points off turnovers.
Friday’s Canada Day game saw Edmonton travel to Hamilton, as two 0-3 teams faced off. In a surprise to the McDonald CFL Power Ratings team, Edmonton came back and defeated Hamilton 29-25. Edmonton trailed Hamilton 22-9 in the third quarter, but their defense came up strong, as defensive back Jalen Collins returned a fumble for the winning touchdown with less than two minutes to go in the game. Hamilton pretty much self-destructed at the end of the game, as two passes bounced out of the hands of Ticat receivers for interceptions late in the game. Edmonton quarterback Tre Ford, another Canadian quarterback, got his first career start for the Elks, and went 15 for 26 for 159 yards, as well as rushed for 61 yards on 6 carries.
Saturday saw Montreal travel to Saskatchewan. Playing at home, Saskatchewan looked to avenge last week’s 37-13 loss in Montreal, and they did, as the Riders convincingly defeated the Alouettes 41-20. Sadly, the Rider offense looked ineffective in the first half, as they trailed 13-11 30 minutes in. But, they switched up their game plan, and used running back Jamal Morrow to good effect as he gained 103 yards on 16 carries and scored a touchdown. But it was the Saskatchewan defense that made the difference in this game, as they made two interceptions, recovered two fumbles, and sacked the Als quarterback six times!
And in an odd scheduling choice, the weekend ended on a Monday with top-ranked, undefeated Winnipeg playing in Toronto against the best team in the East, as the Argonauts held a 1-1 record. In a surprisingly close game, Winnipeg held on to defeat Toronto 23-22. As the game wound down, Toronto trailed by 7 points, and they engineered a last minute final drive for a touchdown to make the game 23-22, but they missed the convert and Winnipeg left Toronto with the victory. The defense was the star of the show for the Blue Bombers, as they had three sacks, two interceptions, and one fumble recovery, with one of the interceptions being a pick-six on Toronto’s opening drive of the game.
Week 4 Results
British Columbia 34 at Ottawa 31
Edmonton 29 at Hamilton 25
Montreal 20 at Saskatchewan 41
Winnipeg 23 at Toronto 22
McDonald CFL Power Ratings
As they have been all year, Winnipeg remains the top-ranked team in the McDonald CFL Power Ratings. The only change in the rankings was British Columbia and Toronto swapping places for 4th and 5th, as 4 of the 5 Western teams hold down the top spots in the rankings. The fifth place team in the West, Edmonton, would be tied for first if they were in the Eastern Division, as their 1-3 record would be impressive for an Eastern team. All four Eastern teams now have ratings below the 1500 average rating, and four of the Western teams are above the average.
| Ranking | Team | Rating | Record |
| 1 | Winnipeg | 1587 (▲12) | 4-0, 1st West |
| 2 | Calgary | 1555 | 3-0, T-2nd West |
| 3 | Saskatchewan | 1547 (▲9) | 3-1, T-2nd West |
| 4 (▲1) | British Columbia | 1507 (▲12) | 3-0, T-2nd West |
| 5 (▼1) | Toronto | 1495 (▼12) | 1-2, T-1st East |
| 6 | Montreal | 1482 (▼9) | 1-3, T-1st East |
| 7 | Hamilton | 1472 (▼16) | 0-4, T-3rd East |
| 8 | Edmonton | 1450 (▲16) | 1-3, 5th West |
| 9 | Ottawa | 1419 (▼12) | 0-3, T-3rd East |
Grey Cup Predictions
Winnipeg continues to be the most likely team to win the Grey Cup, as we’ve calculated they now have a 29% chance of winning it all. That’s up 4% points from last week. They’ll face a test this weekend as they travel to British Columbia to face the hot 3-0 Lions. The only other big change in the chances this week was to Calgary, as their chances of winning dropped 3 percentage points, despite not playing this weekend! It’s tough playing in the same division as the Blue Bombers!
Overall, there’s a 66% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, up 3% from last week’s report.
| Grey Cup Ranking | Team | Rating | Win Grey Cup |
| 1 | Winnipeg | 1587 | 29% (▲4) |
| 2 | Calgary | 1555 | 17% (▼3) |
| 3 (▲1) | Saskatchewan | 1547 | 12% (▲1) |
| 4 (▼1) | Montreal | 1482 | 11% (▼1) |
| 5 | Toronto | 1495 | 10% |
| T-6 | Hamilton | 1472 | 8% (▼1) |
| T-6 (▲1) | British Columbia | 1507 | 8% (▲1) |
| 8 | Ottawa | 1419 | 5% (▼1) |
| 9 | Edmonton | 1450 | <1% |
Our Full Predictions
Here’s our full predictions.
| Team | Rating | Make Playoffs | Host Playoff Game | Win Division | Make Division Final | Make Grey Cup | Win Grey Cup |
| Winnipeg 4-0, 1st in West |
1587 | 96% | 69% | 44% | 69% | 44% | 29% |
| Calgary 3-0, T-2nd in West |
1555 | 91% | 53% | 26% | 53% | 26% | 17% |
| Saskatchewan 3-1, T-2nd in West |
1547 | 88% | 41% | 17% | 41% | 17% | 12% |
| Montreal 1-3, T-1st in East |
1482 | 68% | 63% | 31% | 63% | 32% | 11% |
| Toronto 1-2, T-1st in East |
1495 | 73% | 70% | 42% | 70% | 28% | 10% |
| Hamilton 0-4, T-3rd in East |
1472 | 43% | 39% | 16% | 39% | 23% | 8% |
| British Columbia 3-0, T-2nd in West |
1507 | 82% | 32% | 13% | 32% | 13% | 8% |
| Ottawa 0-3, T-3rd in East |
1419 | 32% | 28% | 11% | 28% | 17% | 5% |
| Edmonton 1-3, 5th in West |
1450 | 27% | 4% | 1% | 4% | 1% | <1% |
Week 5 Game Predictions
Thursday: Calgary (58%) at Edmonton (42%)
Friday: Ottawa (26%) at Saskatchewan (74%)
Saturday: Winnipeg (54%) at British Columbia (46%)