Month: July 2022

McDonald CFL Power Ratings – Week 6

CFL logoIn a rare weekend of football, two Eastern Division teams won games, giving them 4 in the first 6 weeks of the season.

In the Thursday Night Football game, Edmonton surprised Montreal 32-31.  Montreal led 31-12 late in the 3rd quarter, but three pass interference calls against Montreal defensive back Wesley Sutton turned the tide, and Edmonton came away with the win.  The first pass interference call against Sutton came in the endzone, resulting in a 20 yard penalty and Edmonton ended up with a touchdown but no convert.  The second was a 38 yard penalty, again leading up to an Elks touchdown, this time with the convert.  The third penalty was for 50 yards, once again leading to an Edmonton TD.  So, one player, 108 yards in penalties, resulting in 20 points!  That third one gave Edmonton the 32-31 lead, and they held it for the victory.

Friday night’s game was a battle of the two top-ranked McDonald CFL Power Ratings teams, as undefeated Calgary headed to Winnipeg to face the undefeated defending Grey Cup champion Winnipeg Blue Bombers.  In a close game, Winnipeg held on to defeat Calgary 26-19.  In the final minute, trailing 26-19, Calgary QB Bo Levi Mitchell passed to receiver Kamar Jorden in the end zone.  Jorden appeared to make an incredible catch, but as he hit the ground, the ball bounced out of his hands and Winnipeg DB Demerio Houston made a shoestring interception to shut down Calgary’s final drive.  Winnipeg quarterback Zach Collaros completed 27 of his 38 passes for 315 yards, with Greg Ellingson catching 11 of those passes for 152 yards.  For the Stampeders, running back Ka’Deem Carey rushed for 110 yards on only 12 carries.

There were two games on Saturday, with the first being Touchdown Atlantic, with Saskatchewan and Toronto facing each other in Wolfville, Nova Scotia, home of the Acadia University Axemen.  In an upset, Toronto beat Saskatchewan 30-24.  With the Riders leading 24-22 and trying to move the ball downfield to run out the clock, quarterback Cody Fajardo threw an interception that Argo linebacker Wynton McManis ran back for a 49 yard pick-six.  Toronto followed it up with a two point convert to lead 30-24, and as Saskatchewan was making their final drive, Fajardo threw another interception and the Argonauts came away with the victory.

The last game of the weekend saw the Ottawa RedBlacks visit the Hamilton Tiger-Cats in a battle of two 0-4 teams, tied for the last playoff spot in the East.  Yes, really.  In a game that I had absolutely no interest in watching, Hamilton defeated Ottawa 25-23.  Hamilton quarterback Dane Evans passed for 342 yards and two touchdowns, one of which gave the Ti-Cats the lead with 34 seconds left.  Ottawa had a final chance to win it with a 54 yard field goal as time ran out, but the kick came up short and Hamilton had their first victory of the season.

Week 6 Results

Edmonton 32  at Montreal 31
Calgary 19  at Winnipeg 26
Saskatchewan 24  at Toronto 30
Ottawa 23  at Hamilton 25

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

There wasn’t much changes in our power rankings.  Winnipeg, Calgary, and Saskatchewan remain at the top of the rankings.  With Toronto’s surprising win over Saskatchewan, the Argos swapped places with British Columbia, with the Lions dropping to 5th.  Hamilton’s win over Ottawa combined with Montreal’s unexpected loss to Edmonton resulted Hamilton and Montreal swapping places as well, with Hamilton now ranked 6th and Montreal 7th.  Ottawa remains mired at the bottom of our rankins with their 0-5 record.

Ranking Team Rating Record
1 Winnipeg 1609 (▲10) 6-0, 1st West
2 Calgary 1556 (▼9) 4-1, T-2nd West
3 Saskatchewan 1541 (▼13) 4-2, T-2nd West
4 (▲1) Toronto 1508 (▲13) 2-2, 1st East
5 (▼1) British Columbia 1496 3-1, 4th West
6 (▲1) Hamilton 1481 (▲9) 1-4, T-2nd East
7 (▼1) Montreal 1466 (▼16) 1-4, T-2nd East
8 Edmonton 1456 (▲16) 2-4, 5th West
9 Ottawa 1404 (▼9) 0-5, 4th East

Grey Cup Predictions

We made some tweaks to our mathematical model, and that resulted in larger than expected changes in Grey Cup winning probabilities.  Winnipeg remains the favourite with a 32% chance of winning, twice the probability of 2nd most-likely Toronto.  It must be nice to be an Eastern team, as your chances of making the Grey Cup are pretty good!  Calgary is 3rd most likely at 15%, followed by Saskatchewan at 13%.  Least likely to win remains Edmonton, now tied with Ottawa for last place with a 2% win probability.

Overall, there’s a 68% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, up 1% from last week’s report.

Grey Cup Ranking Team Rating Win Grey Cup
1 Winnipeg 1609 32% (▼1)
2 (▲3) Toronto 1508 16% (▲6)
3 (▼1) Calgary 1556 15% (▼4)
4 (▼1) Saskatchewan 1541 13% (▲1)
5 (▲1) Hamilton 1481 8%
6 (▼2) Montreal 1466 7% (▼4)
7 (▲1) British Columbia 1496 6% (▲3)
T-8 (▼1) Ottawa 1404 2% (▼3)
T-8 (▲1) Edmonton 1456 2% (▲2)

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.

Team Rating Make Playoffs Host Playoff Game Win Division Make Division Final Make Grey Cup Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg
6-0,
1st in West		 1609 99% 88% 66% 85% 51% 32%
Toronto
2-2,
1st in East		 1508 84% 82% 57% 72% 41% 16%
Calgary
4-1,
T-2nd in West		 1556 94% 55% 18% 58% 26% 15%
Saskatchewan
4-2,
T-2nd in West		 1541 87% 33% 10% 47% 21% 13%
Hamilton
1-4,
T-2nd in East		 1481 53% 49% 20% 39% 20% 8%
Montreal
1-4,
T-2nd in East		 1466 56% 51% 18% 38% 18% 7%
British Columbia
3-1,
4th in West		 1496 75% 21% 5% 35% 13% 6%
Ottawa
0-5,
4th in East		 1404 21% 18% 5% 12% 5% 2%
Edmonton
2-4,
5th in West		 1456 31% 3% <1% 13% 5% 2%

Week 7 Game Predictions

Thursday: Montreal (51%) at Ottawa (48%)
Thursday: Hamilton (41%) at British Columbia (58%)
Friday: Winnipeg (63%) at Edmonton (36%)
Saturday: Toronto (38%) at Saskatchewan (61%)

McDonald CFL Power Ratings – Week 5

CFL logoIt was a quieter week in the CFL last week, as there were only three games played.  All five Western teams played, but only Ottawa played from the East.

Thursday night’s game featured the Battle of Alberta, as Calgary travelled north to visit Edmonton.  Being ever the gracious hosts, Edmonton was soundly defeated by Calgary, 49-6.  Calgary is now 4-0, while Edmonton falls to 1-4.  The game was interrupted by a huge rainstorm, but that didn’t slow Calgary down.  Bo Levi Mitchell, the Calgary quarterback, completed 17 of 22 passes for 279 yards and two touchdowns, and receiver Malik Henry caught 6 passes for 150 yards, one of those being an 89 yard touchdown.  On the ground, running back Ka’Deem Carey gained 104 yards on 12 carries, and on defense, Calgary had two interceptions, three sacks, and two fumble recoveries, one of which resulted in a 63 yard touchdown.  Edmonton went through three quarterbacks, with two of them leaving the game due to injury.

Friday Night Football saw Ottawa heading to Regina to face the Saskatchewan Roughriders.  Saskatchewan defeated Ottawa 28-13, but the game was marred by an injury to Ottawa quarterback Jeremiah Masoli late in the game after a low hit by Rider lineman Garrett Marino.  Although the hit didn’t seem intentional, Marino made it worse by celebrating the hit over top of the injured Masoli, then uttered a racial epithet directed at the RedBlack quarterback.  Masoli required surgery and is expected to miss 12 weeks, while Marino was suspended for a CFL-record 4 games.  To this commentator, the punishment doesn’t seem sufficient to fit the crime; more appropriate would be a season-long suspension.

Saturday saw the final game of the week, with top-ranked Winnipeg heading to British Columbia to face the up-and-coming Lions.  Although it was expected to be a test for the Bombers, it wasn’t, as Winnipeg won 43-22 over BC.  Bomber QB Zach Collaros went 23 for 30 for 288 yards and three touchdowns, with receiver Dalton Schoen catching 8 of those for 117 yards and two touchdowns.  On defense, Winnipeg made three interceptions, one fumble recovery, and one sack, and on special teams, Janarion Grant returned the opening kickoff 97 yards for a touchdown.  On the BC side, quarterback Nathan Rourke passed for 278 yards and three touchdowns, although he also threw two interceptions.

The big game coming up this weekend is the Touchdown Atlantic game, with Saskatchewan and Toronto travelling to Wolfville, Nova Scotia, to play the first CFL game ever in Nova Scotia on Saturday afternoon.

Week 5 Results

Calgary 49  at Edmonton 6
Ottawa 13  at Saskatchewan 28
Winnipeg 43  at British Columbia 22

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

There were no changes to the rankings this week, although Toronto, being idle, closed the gap on BC following the Lions’ loss to Winnipeg.  Sadly, only three teams are rated above the 1500 average ranking, and all three of those teams are in the West.  The league seems quite unbalanced, with the top 4 teams all coming from the West, and all Eastern teams being ranked below average.

Ranking Team Rating Record
1 Winnipeg 1599 (▲12) 5-0, 1st West
2 Calgary 1565 (▲10) 4-0, T-2nd West
3 Saskatchewan 1554 (▲7) 4-1, T-2nd West
4 British Columbia 1496 (▼11) 3-1, 4th West
5 Toronto 1495 1-2, T-1st East
6 Montreal 1482 1-3, T-1st East
7 Hamilton 1472 0-4, T-3rd East
8 Edmonton 1440 (▼10) 1-4, 5th West
9 Ottawa 1413 (▼6) 0-4, T-3rd East

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg continues to be the Grey Cup favourite, now with a 33% chance of winning the Cup, up 4% from last week.  Calgary follows with a 19% chance.  British Columbia were the only team to change in their chances, dropping 5 percentage points down to 3%, a result of playing in that tough Western Division.  Montreal has the most chance of winning it from the East, with an 11% probability.

Overall, there’s a 67% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, up 1% from last week’s report.

Grey Cup Ranking Team Rating Win Grey Cup
1 Winnipeg 1599 33% (▲4)
2 Calgary 1555 19% (▲2)
3 Saskatchewan 1554 12%
4 Montreal 1482 11%
5 Toronto 1495 10%
6 Hamilton 1472 8%
7 (▲1) Ottawa 1413 5%
8 (▼2) British Columbia 1496 3% (▼5)
9 Edmonton 1440 <1%

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.

Team Rating Make Playoffs Host Playoff Game Win Division Make Division Final Make Grey Cup Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg
5-0,
1st in West		 1599 99% 77% 50% 77% 50% 33%
Calgary
4-0,
T-2nd in West		 1565 97% 60% 29% 60% 29% 19%
Saskatchewan
4-1,
T-2nd in West		 1554 93% 43% 16% 43% 16% 12%
Montreal
1-3,
T-1st in East		 1482 70% 65% 32% 65% 33% 11%
Toronto
1-2,
T-1st in East		 1495 74% 71% 42% 71% 28% 10%
Hamilton
0-4,
T-3rd in East		 1472 44% 40% 17% 40% 23% 8%
Ottawa
0-4,
T-3rd in East		 1413 28% 25% 9% 25% 16% 5%
British Columbia
3-1,
4th in West		 1496 77% 18% 5% 18% 5% 3%
Edmonton
1-4,
5th in West		 1440 19% 1% <1% 1% <1% <1%

Week 6 Game Predictions

Thursday: Edmonton (37%) at Montreal (62%)
Friday: Calgary (38%) at Winnipeg (61%)
Saturday: Saskatchewan (57%) at Toronto (42%)
Saturday: Ottawa (35%) at Hamilton (64%)

2022/23 NHL schedule and results in Excel .xlsx and csv formats

Hockey playerThe post you’re currently reading is about the 2022/23 NHL schedule.  If you’re looking for the 2023/24 NHL schedule, you can find it in this post.

Note: Schedule last updated April 15, 2023.

Here’s a copy of the 2022/23 NHL schedule and the results of each of the games played so far in Excel .xlsx format, and here’s another copy in CSV format.  Of course, the season hasn’t started yet, so the results are empty right now, but I’ll try to update them each morning through the regular season.

The Excel file consists of 2 worksheets: one contains the original NHL schedule as described in this post; the other, named As-Played Schedule, contains the same contents, with the addition of the scores for each team and whether the game hasn’t been played yet, was won in regulation time, overtime, or in a shootout.  Here’s a quick summary of the columns:

  • Date: the date of the game
  • Start Time (Sask): the game’s start time in Saskatchewan (where I live!)
  • Start Time (ET): the game’s start time in Eastern time (which is the time the NHL website shows)
  • Visitor: the name of the visiting team
  • Score: the visiting team’s score if the game has been played, otherwise blank
  • Home: the name of the home team
  • Score: the home team’s score if the game has been played, otherwise blank
  • Status: one of the following:
    • Scheduled: if the game hasn’t been played yet
    • Postponed: if the game has been postponed, but not yet rescheduled
    • Regulation: if the game ended in regulation time
    • OT: if the game ended in overtime
    • SO: if the game ended in a shootout

For example, here’s the first couple lines of the worksheet from a previous year’s file:

In this example, the game was played on January 13, 2021 at 4:30 PM in Saskatchewan and 5:30 PM Eastern time, the home team Philadelphia beat the visiting team Pittsburgh 6-3 in regulation time

Just a brief explanation why I’ve got two time fields in here.  Saskatchewan doesn’t observe Daylight Savings time, so for part of the schedule, we have a one-hour time difference from Eastern time, and for the rest of the schedule, we have a two-hour time difference.  Of course, I’m more interested in the time in Saskatchewan, but to make it easier for other people to use, I’ve also included Eastern time.

The CSV file contains only the As-Played worksheet.  It has the same fields as described for the Excel file.  You can easily import this file into Excel or whatever spreadsheet of your choice!

McDonald CFL Power Ratings – Week 4

CFL logoYet another exciting weekend of games in the CFL this week, although there weren’t many surprises in the final results.  The West continues their dominance of the East, as Western teams defeated Eastern teams in all four games this weekend.  And Winnipeg remains at the top of the field, despite a squeaker over Toronto on the 4th of July game (why is the CANADIAN Football League celebrating the US Independence Day???).

The weekend started off with Thursday Night Football, where British Columbia travelled to Ottawa to face the RedBlacks in the nation’s capital.  It was probably a good idea to avoid conflicting with the Canada Day celebrations, as British Columbia triumphed over Ottawa 34-31.  BC’s young Canadian quarterback, Nathan Rourke, continued to impress, going 23 for 31 and 359 yards and throwing two touchdowns, despite throwing two interceptions and losing the ball once on a fumble.  He also scored a touchdown on the ground, rambling for 50 yards for the score!  The Lions offense also benefited from receiver Keon Hatcher catching seven passes for 166 yards and a touchdown, and running back James Butler running for 129 yards and two touchdowns.  Ottawa was led by their defense, especially DB Monshadrik Hunter who made two interceptions and recovered a fumble, as the RedBlack defense scored 17 points off turnovers.

Friday’s Canada Day game saw Edmonton travel to Hamilton, as two 0-3 teams faced off.  In a surprise to the McDonald CFL Power Ratings team, Edmonton came back and defeated Hamilton 29-25.  Edmonton trailed Hamilton 22-9 in the third quarter, but their defense came up strong, as defensive back Jalen Collins returned a fumble for the winning touchdown with less than two minutes to go in the game.  Hamilton pretty much self-destructed at the end of the game, as two passes bounced out of the hands of Ticat receivers for interceptions late in the game.  Edmonton quarterback Tre Ford, another Canadian quarterback, got his first career start for the Elks, and went 15 for 26 for 159 yards, as well as rushed for 61 yards on 6 carries.

Saturday saw Montreal travel to Saskatchewan.  Playing at home, Saskatchewan looked to avenge last week’s 37-13 loss in Montreal, and they did, as the Riders convincingly defeated the Alouettes 41-20.  Sadly, the Rider offense looked ineffective in the first half, as they trailed 13-11 30 minutes in.  But, they switched up their game plan, and used running back Jamal Morrow to good effect as he gained 103 yards on 16 carries and scored a touchdown.  But it was the Saskatchewan defense that made the difference in this game, as they made two interceptions, recovered two fumbles, and sacked the Als quarterback six times!

And in an odd scheduling choice, the weekend ended on a Monday with top-ranked, undefeated Winnipeg playing in Toronto against the best team in the East, as the Argonauts held a 1-1 record.  In a surprisingly close game, Winnipeg held on to defeat Toronto 23-22.  As the game wound down, Toronto trailed by 7 points, and they engineered a last minute final drive for a touchdown to make the game 23-22, but they missed the convert and Winnipeg left Toronto with the victory.  The defense was the star of the show for the Blue Bombers, as they had three sacks, two interceptions, and one fumble recovery, with one of the interceptions being a pick-six on Toronto’s opening drive of the game.

Week 4 Results

British Columbia 34  at Ottawa 31
Edmonton 29  at Hamilton 25
Montreal 20  at Saskatchewan 41
Winnipeg 23  at Toronto 22

McDonald CFL Power Ratings

As they have been all year, Winnipeg remains the top-ranked team in the McDonald CFL Power Ratings.  The only change in the rankings was British Columbia and Toronto swapping places for 4th and 5th, as 4 of the 5 Western teams hold down the top spots in the rankings.  The fifth place team in the West, Edmonton, would be tied for first if they were in the Eastern Division, as their 1-3 record would be impressive for an Eastern team.  All four Eastern teams now have ratings below the 1500 average rating, and four of the Western teams are above the average.

Ranking Team Rating Record
1 Winnipeg 1587 (▲12) 4-0, 1st West
2 Calgary 1555 3-0, T-2nd West
3 Saskatchewan 1547 (▲9) 3-1, T-2nd West
4 (▲1) British Columbia 1507 (▲12) 3-0, T-2nd West
5 (▼1) Toronto 1495 (▼12) 1-2, T-1st East
6 Montreal 1482 (▼9) 1-3, T-1st East
7 Hamilton 1472 (▼16) 0-4, T-3rd East
8 Edmonton 1450 (▲16) 1-3, 5th West
9 Ottawa 1419 (▼12) 0-3, T-3rd East

Grey Cup Predictions

Winnipeg continues to be the most likely team to win the Grey Cup, as we’ve calculated they now have a 29% chance of winning it all.  That’s up 4% points from last week.  They’ll face a test this weekend as they travel to British Columbia to face the hot 3-0 Lions.  The only other big change in the chances this week was to Calgary, as their chances of winning dropped 3 percentage points, despite not playing this weekend!  It’s tough playing in the same division as the Blue Bombers!

Overall, there’s a 66% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, up 3% from last week’s report.

Grey Cup Ranking Team Rating Win Grey Cup
1 Winnipeg 1587 29% (▲4)
2 Calgary 1555 17% (▼3)
3 (▲1) Saskatchewan 1547 12% (▲1)
4 (▼1) Montreal 1482 11% (▼1)
5 Toronto 1495 10%
T-6 Hamilton 1472 8% (▼1)
T-6 (▲1) British Columbia 1507 8% (▲1)
8 Ottawa 1419 5% (▼1)
9 Edmonton 1450 <1%

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions.

Team Rating Make Playoffs Host Playoff Game Win Division Make Division Final Make Grey Cup Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg
4-0,
1st in West		 1587 96% 69% 44% 69% 44% 29%
Calgary
3-0,
T-2nd in West		 1555 91% 53% 26% 53% 26% 17%
Saskatchewan
3-1,
T-2nd in West		 1547 88% 41% 17% 41% 17% 12%
Montreal
1-3,
T-1st in East		 1482 68% 63% 31% 63% 32% 11%
Toronto
1-2,
T-1st in East		 1495 73% 70% 42% 70% 28% 10%
Hamilton
0-4,
T-3rd in East		 1472 43% 39% 16% 39% 23% 8%
British Columbia
3-0,
T-2nd in West		 1507 82% 32% 13% 32% 13% 8%
Ottawa
0-3,
T-3rd in East		 1419 32% 28% 11% 28% 17% 5%
Edmonton
1-3,
5th in West		 1450 27% 4% 1% 4% 1% <1%

Week 5 Game Predictions

Thursday: Calgary (58%) at Edmonton (42%)
Friday: Ottawa (26%) at Saskatchewan (74%)
Saturday: Winnipeg (54%) at British Columbia (46%)