It’s only been Week 3, but it looks like the McDonald CFL Power Ratings are getting pretty accurate, working out the uncertainty that we introduce before the season starts. As we’ve said a number of times, after about 4 games, we feel that the ratings are quite accurate, but they are looking pretty good already.
Week 3 started off with Saskatchewan heading off to Montreal to face the Alouettes. This game was all Montreal, as they scored a touchdown on the opening kickoff return, and never looked back, as they came away with a 37-13 victory. The star of the game was the Montreal defense, as they had three interceptions, a touchdown and eight (eight!!!) sacks. Saskatchewan replaced their quarterback Cody Fajardo with his backup Mason Fine in the fourth quarter. Montreal kicker David Côté was 5-for-5 on his field goal attempts.
On Friday, Hamilton visited the top-ranked Winnipeg Blue Bombers. Winnipeg remain undefeated with a 3-0 record after winning the game 26-12. Bomber quarterback Zach Collaros completed 21 of his 32 passes for 302 yards, and receiver Nic Demski caught 6 of those passes for 96 yards before leaving the game early in the third quarter with an injury. The win was Winnipeg’s 11th straight home win.
There were two games on Saturday. In the first, it was the battle of Alberta, as the undefeated Calgary Stampeders hosted the winless Edmonton Elks. In a surprisingly close game, Calgary beat Edmonton 30-23. Bo Levi Mitchell, the Stampeder quarterback, led the offense passing 21-for-28 for 321 yards, and running back Ka’Deem Carey ran for 91 yards.
In the final game of the weekend, British Columbia were ungracious hosts to the Toronto Argonauts, thumping them 44-3. Quarterback Nathan Rourke had a historic game, passing for 436 yards, the most ever by a Canadian quarterback in a single game. He completed 39 of his 45 pass attempts to seven different receivers, with Dominque Rhymes catching eight of those for 143 yards and two touchdowns. Aside from the impressive passing display, running back David Mackie carried the ball 16 times for 90 yards.
Week 3 Results
Saskatchewan 13 at Montreal 37
Hamilton 12 at Winnipeg 26
Edmonton 23 at Calgary 30Toronto 3 at British Columbia 44
McDonald CFL Power Ratings
Here’s the current McDonald CFL Power Ratings. Winnipeg remains the top-ranked team, but Calgary and Saskatchewan swapped places after Saskatchewan lost their first game of the year and Calgary remains undefeated. Toronto is the top-ranked team from the East, currently in fourth, and are the only Eastern team with a rating higher than the baseline of 1500. Ottawa remains at the bottom after being idle this week, but Edmonton is quickly racing for the bottom, just 3 rating points ahead of Ottawa.
| Ranking | Team | Rating | Record |
| 1 | Winnipeg | 1575 (▲8) | 3-0, T-1st West |
| 2 (▲1) | Calgary | 1555 (▲7) | 3-0, T-1st West |
| 3 (▼1) | Saskatchewan | 1538 (▼13) | 2-1, T-3rd West |
| 4 | Toronto | 1507 (▼12) | 1-1, T-1st East |
| 5 (▲1) | British Columbia | 1495 (▲12) | 2-0, T-3rd West |
| 6 (▲1) | Montreal | 1491 (▲13) | 1-2, T-1st East |
| 7 (▼2) | Hamilton | 1488 (▼8) | 0-3, T-3rd East |
| 8 | Edmonton | 1434 (▼7) | 0-3, 5th West |
| 9 | Ottawa | 1431 | 0-2, T-3rd East |
Grey Cup Predictions
Winnipeg remains the most likely team to win the Grey Cup, with a big jump of probability from 21% to 25% after this week’s win. Saskatchewan saw a big drop in their chances, dropping from 19% down to 11%. Calgary is the second favourite, at 20%. The Eastern teams aren’t looking very good, with Montreal the most likely to win the Grey Cup with a 12% chance, despite having a below average McDonald CFL Power Rating. In our simulations, Edmonton has an extremely slim chance of winning, less than 1%, which is unprecedented so early in the season.
Overall, there’s a 63% chance of a Western team winning the Grey Cup, no change from last week’s report.
| Grey Cup Ranking | Team | Rating | Win Grey Cup |
| 1 | Winnipeg | 1575 | 25% (▲4) |
| 2 (▲1) | Calgary | 1555 | 20% (▲3) |
| 3 (▲1) | Montreal | 1491 | 12% (▲1) |
| 4 (▼2) | Saskatchewan | 1538 | 11% (▼8) |
| 5 (▲1) | Toronto | 1507 | 10% (▲1) |
| 6 (▼1) | Hamilton | 1488 | 9% (▼1) |
| 7 (▲1) | British Columbia | 1495 | 7% (▲2) |
| 8 (▼1) | Ottawa | 1431 | 6% |
| 9 | Edmonton | 1434 | <1% (▼1) |
Our Full Predictions
Here’s our full predictions.
| Team | Rating | Make Playoffs | Host Playoff Game | Win Division | Make Division Final | Make Grey Cup | Win Grey Cup |
| Winnipeg 3-0, T-1st in West |
1575 | 94% | 66% | 39% | 66% | 39% | 25% |
| Calgary 3-0, T-1st in West |
1555 | 92% | 61% | 32% | 61% | 32% | 20% |
| Montreal 1-2, T-1st in East |
1491 | 70% | 61% | 29% | 61% | 31% | 12% |
| Saskatchewan 2-1, T-3rd in West |
1538 | 84% | 40% | 16% | 40% | 16% | 11% |
| Toronto 1-1, T-1st in East |
1507 | 76% | 69% | 41% | 69% | 28% | 10% |
| Hamilton 0-3, T-3rd in East |
1488 | 52% | 42% | 18% | 42% | 24% | 9% |
| British Columbia 2-0, T-3rd in West |
1495 | 74% | 30% | 12% | 30% | 12% | 7% |
| Ottawa 0-2, T-3rd in East |
1431 | 38% | 29% | 11% | 29% | 18% | 6% |
| Edmonton 0-3, 5th in West |
1434 | 19% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 1% | <1% |
Week 4 Game Predictions
Thursday: British Columbia (52%) at Ottawa (48%)
Friday: Edmonton (35%) at Hamilton (65%)
Saturday: Montreal (36%) at Saskatchewan (64%)
Monday: Winnipeg (53%) at Toronto (47%)