Well, the season’s not over yet!  Tampa Bay hasn’t given up yet on winning their third straight Stanley Cup!  With Colorado leading the series 3-1, it looked bleak for the Lightning, with Game 5 being played in the Avalanche’s home building, but Tampa Bay came through when they needed to, winning last night’s game 3-2.

Tampa Bay never trailed in the game, taking the lead 1-0 after one period.  Colorado tied it up quickly in the second, but Tampa Bay scored again to regain the lead, and that’s how the second period ended.  In the third, the Avalanche tied it up yet again 2:31 into the 3rd, but Ondrej Palat scored for Tampa Bay with 6:22 to go in the game, and they held off the Avalanche to take the game 3-2.

Colorado now leads the series 3-2, with Game 6 to be played Sunday night in Tampa Bay.  The series has been close, with each team having one blowout victory, two games going to overtime, and last night’s game being decided by a single goal in regulation time.  We are still giving Colorado the edge in the series, with Game 6 being pretty much a toss-up (we’re giving Colorado a 51% chance of winning), but we’ve calculated Colorado still has an 80.4% chance of winning the series, although that is down from 93.2% before last night’s game.

Yesterday’s Game

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Tampa Bay 3 at Colorado 2

• Colorado leads series 3-2
• Colorado now has a 80.4% chance of winning the series, down from 93.2%

Series schedule:

• June 15: Tampa Bay 3 at Colorado 4 (OT)
• June 18: Tampa Bay 0 at Colorado 7
• June 20: Colorado 2 at Tampa Bay 6
• June 22: Colorado 3 at Tampa Bay 2 (OT)
• June 24: Tampa Bay 3 at Colorado 2
• June 26: Colorado at Tampa Bay
• June 28: Tampa Bay at Colorado (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Colorado has a 80.4% chance of winning (▼12.8)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼65.0)
  • In 6 games: 51.0% (▲33.1)
  • In 7 games: 29.4% (▲19.1)
• Tampa Bay has a 19.6% chance of winning (▲12.8)
  • In 7 games: 19.6% (▲12.8)
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Sunday’s Game

Colorado at Tampa Bay

• Colorado leads series 3-2
• Colorado has a 80.4% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Stanley Cup Finals

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Colorado leads series 3-2

Chances of winning: Colorado 80.4%, Tampa Bay 19.6%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1660, 1st overall
• Tampa Bay: 1616, 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (2 games):

• Colorado: 1 regulation win, 1 shootout win
• Tampa Bay: 0 wins

Previous rounds:

• Colorado:
  • defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
  • defeated St. Louis (1595, T-2nd) in 6 games
  • defeated Edmonton (1589, 3rd) in 4 games
• Tampa Bay:
  • defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
  • defeated Florida (1591, 4th) in 4 games
  • defeated NY Rangers (1581, 4th) in 6 games

Series schedule:

• June 15: Tampa Bay 3 at Colorado 4 (OT)
• June 18: Tampa Bay 0 at Colorado 7
• June 20: Colorado 2 at Tampa Bay 6
• June 22: Colorado 3 at Tampa Bay 2 (OT)
• June 24: Tampa Bay 3 at Colorado 2
• June 26: Colorado at Tampa Bay
• June 28: Tampa Bay at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 80.4% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 51.0%
  • In 7 games: 29.4%
• Tampa Bay has a 19.6% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 19.6%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            63.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           36.3%

These chances were calculated before the final round of the playoffs.