As the great Canadian troubadour, Stompin’ Tom Connors, sang, “the best game you can name is the good old hockey game.” And there’s no hockey better than playoff hockey. And what can be better than playoff hockey? Playoff hockey in overtime!
Last night’s game saw Colorado play in Tampa Bay, with a 2-1 series lead. A win by Colorado would see them take a 3-1 lead back home, forcing Tampa Bay to win all 3 of the final 3 games, with two of those games being on the road. However, a Tampa Bay win would even the series at 2, but again, Colorado would have an edge, as the 5th and 7th games are scheduled to be played in Colorado.
Tampa Bay started the game strong, and took a 1-0 lead only 36 seconds into the game when Anthony Cirelli scored. They continued to dominate the game, outshooting Colorado 17-4 in the first period, but couldn’t get another shot past goalie Darcy Kuemper. 5 minutes into the second period, Nathan MacKinnon scored on a power play goal to even the score, but Tampa Bay retook the lead 5 minutes after that on Victor Hedman’s goal, and the second period ended with a 2-1 score in Tampa Bay’s favour. Colorado tied it back up 3 minutes into the third when Andrew Cogliano tickled the twine, and that was all the scoring in regulation time. In an exciting back-and-forth overtime period, Nazem Kadri potted the winner at 12:02 to give Colorado the victory and a 3-1 series lead.
With 2 of the next 3 games scheduled to be played in Colorado, and a big 3-1 series lead, we’ve calculated that Colorado now has a 93.2% chance of winning the Stanley Cup. We’ve also calculated that they’ve got a 65.0% chance of winning it in 5 games. Sadly, the end of the hockey season is in sight.
Yesterday’s Game
Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)
Colorado 3 at Tampa Bay 2 (OT)
- Colorado leads series 3-1
- Colorado now has a 93.2% chance of winning the series, up from 77.3%
Series schedule:
- June 15: Tampa Bay 3 at Colorado 4 (OT)
- June 18: Tampa Bay 0 at Colorado 7
- June 20: Colorado 2 at Tampa Bay 6
- June 22: Colorado 3 at Tampa Bay 2 (OT)
- June 24: Tampa Bay at Colorado
- June 26: Colorado at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
- June 28: Tampa Bay at Colorado (if necessary)
New simulation results:
- Colorado has a 93.2% chance of winning (▲15.9)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 65.0% (▲31.2)
- In 6 games: 17.9% (▼6.3)
- In 7 games: 10.3% (▼8.9)
- Tampa Bay has a 6.8% chance of winning (▼15.9)
- In 7 games: 6.8% (▼6.0)
- In 6 games: 0.0% (▼9.9)
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Friday’s Game
Tampa Bay at Colorado
- Colorado leads series 3-1
- Colorado has a 93.2% chance of winning the series
Playoff Matchups
Stanley Cup Finals
Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)
Colorado leads series 3-1
Chances of winning: Colorado 93.2%, Tampa Bay 6.8%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Colorado: 1660, 1st overall
- Tampa Bay: 1616, 2nd overall
Head-to-head this year (2 games):
- Colorado: 1 regulation win, 1 shootout win
- Tampa Bay: 0 wins
Previous rounds:
- Colorado:
- defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
- defeated St. Louis (1595, T-2nd) in 6 games
- defeated Edmonton (1589, 3rd) in 4 games
- Tampa Bay:
- defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
- defeated Florida (1591, 4th) in 4 games
- defeated NY Rangers (1581, 4th) in 6 games
Series schedule:
- June 15: Tampa Bay 3 at Colorado 4 (OT)
- June 18: Tampa Bay 0 at Colorado 7
- June 20: Colorado 2 at Tampa Bay 6
- June 22: Colorado 3 at Tampa Bay 2 (OT)
- June 24: Tampa Bay at Colorado
- June 26: Colorado at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
- June 28: Tampa Bay at Colorado (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Colorado has a 93.2% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 65.0%
- In 6 games: 17.9%
- In 7 games: 10.3%
- Tampa Bay has a 6.8% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 6.8%
- In 6 games: 0.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Chances of winning the Stanley Cup
1 Colorado Avalanche 63.7% 2 Tampa Bay Lightning 36.3%
These chances were calculated before the final round of the playoffs.