Well, that was a bit of a surprise!  After Colorado trounced Tampa Bay 7-0 in Game 2 of the Stanley Cup Finals, the Lightning came back and did a little thumping of their own, defeating the Avalanche 6-2 to narrow Colorado’s series lead to 2 games to 1.

After falling behind 1-0 in the first period, Tampa Bay came back to score two goals of their own, and the period ended with a 2-1 Lightning lead.  Tampa Bay scored again early in the second period, and after Colorado scored to make it a 3-2 Lightning lead.  And then the fireworks began, with the Lightning scoring three more times in the period to take a 6-2 lead after two frames.  After a scoreless third period, the game ended that way, and Tampa Bay is back in the series!

Colorado still leads the series 2-1, and we’ve calculated that they’ve got a 77.3% chance of winning the Stanley Cup.  Tampa Bay will hope to use home advantage again in Game 4 on Wednesday night, while Colorado would love to go home for Game 5 needing just a single win to take the Cup.  The next game should be quite interesting!

Yesterday’s Game

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Colorado 2 at Tampa Bay 6

• Colorado leads series 2-1
• Colorado now has a 77.3% chance of winning the series, down from 87.8%

Series schedule:

• June 15: Tampa Bay 3 at Colorado 4 (OT)
• June 18: Tampa Bay 0 at Colorado 7
• June 20: Colorado 2 at Tampa Bay 6
• June 22: Colorado at Tampa Bay
• June 24: Tampa Bay at Colorado
• June 26: Colorado at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 28: Tampa Bay at Colorado (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Colorado has a 77.3% chance of winning (▼10.5)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼30.2)
  • In 5 games: 33.8% (▲2.9)
  • In 6 games: 24.2% (▲8.8)
  • In 7 games: 19.2% (▲7.9)
• Tampa Bay has a 22.7% chance of winning (▲10.5)
  • In 7 games: 12.8% (▲5.2)
  • In 6 games: 9.9% (▲5.3)
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Wednesday’s Game

Colorado at Tampa Bay

• Colorado leads series 2-1
• Colorado has a 77.3% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Stanley Cup Finals

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Colorado leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: Colorado 77.3%, Tampa Bay 22.7%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1660, 1st overall
• Tampa Bay: 1616, 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (2 games):

• Colorado: 1 regulation win, 1 shootout win
• Tampa Bay: 0 wins

Previous rounds:

• Colorado:
  • defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
  • defeated St. Louis (1595, T-2nd) in 6 games
  • defeated Edmonton (1589, 3rd) in 4 games
• Tampa Bay:
  • defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
  • defeated Florida (1591, 4th) in 4 games
  • defeated NY Rangers (1581, 4th) in 6 games

Series schedule:

• June 15: Tampa Bay 3 at Colorado 4 (OT)
• June 18: Tampa Bay 0 at Colorado 7
• June 20: Colorado 2 at Tampa Bay 6
• June 22: Colorado at Tampa Bay
• June 24: Tampa Bay at Colorado
• June 26: Colorado at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 28: Tampa Bay at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 77.3% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 33.8%
  • In 6 games: 24.2%
  • In 7 games: 19.2%
• Tampa Bay has a 22.7% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 12.8%
  • In 6 games: 9.9%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            63.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           36.3%

These chances were calculated before the final round of the playoffs.