Last night, Colorado showed why they are the top-ranked team in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings, as they handed Tampa Bay a 7-0 drubbing in the second game of the Stanley Cup Finals.  The Avalanche scored early, taking a 1-0 lead only 2:54 into the game, and they kept the pressure on, outshooting the Lightning 15-1 in the first 10 minutes of the game.  They led 3-0 after the first, and scored twice in both the 2nd and 3rd period.  Valeri Nichushkin and Cale Makar both scored twice for Colorado, and Mikko Rantanen had three assists.  Darcy Kuemper only needed to stop 16 shots to get the shutout, as Colorado outshot Tampa Bay 30-16, although I guess both teams got 15 shots in the last 50 minutes of the game!

Colorado now leads the series 2-0.  We’ve calculated that they now have an 87.8% chance of winning the series, including a 30.2% chance of a sweep.  Games 3 and 4 go in Tampa Bay on Monday and Wednesday nights.

Yesterday’s Game

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Tampa Bay 0 at Colorado 7

• Colorado leads series 2-0
• Colorado now has a 87.8% chance of winning the series, up from 76.7%

Series schedule:

• June 15: Tampa Bay 3 at Colorado 4 (OT)
• June 18: Tampa Bay 0 at Colorado 7
• June 20: Colorado at Tampa Bay
• June 22: Colorado at Tampa Bay
• June 24: Tampa Bay at Colorado (if necessary)
• June 26: Colorado at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 28: Tampa Bay at Colorado (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Colorado has a 87.8% chance of winning (▲11.1)
  • In 4 games: 30.2% (▲11.2)
  • In 5 games: 30.9% (▲5.1)
  • In 6 games: 15.4% (▼1.6)
  • In 7 games: 11.3% (▼3.5)
• Tampa Bay has a 12.2% chance of winning (▼11.1)
  • In 7 games: 7.6% (▼2.1)
  • In 6 games: 4.6% (▼4.8)
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼4.1)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Monday’s Games

Colorado at Tampa Bay

• Colorado leads series 2-0
• Colorado has a 87.8% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Stanley Cup Finals

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Colorado leads series 2-0

Chances of winning: Colorado 87.8%, Tampa Bay 12.2%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1660, 1st overall
• Tampa Bay: 1616, 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (2 games):

• Colorado: 1 regulation win, 1 shootout win
• Tampa Bay: 0 wins

Previous rounds:

• Colorado:
  • defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
  • defeated St. Louis (1595, T-2nd) in 6 games
  • defeated Edmonton (1589, 3rd) in 4 games
• Tampa Bay:
  • defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
  • defeated Florida (1591, 4th) in 4 games
  • defeated NY Rangers (1581, 4th) in 6 games

Series schedule:

• June 15: Tampa Bay 3 at Colorado 4 (OT)
• June 18: Tampa Bay 0 at Colorado 7
• June 20: Colorado at Tampa Bay
• June 22: Colorado at Tampa Bay
• June 24: Tampa Bay at Colorado (if necessary)
• June 26: Colorado at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 28: Tampa Bay at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 87.8% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 30.2%
  • In 5 games: 30.9%
  • In 6 games: 15.4%
  • In 7 games: 11.3%
• Tampa Bay has a 12.2% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 7.6%
  • In 6 games: 4.6%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            63.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           36.3%

These chances were calculated before the final round of the playoffs.