After what seems like forever, the Stanley Cup Finals have finally started!  And the first game was worth the wait!!!

Tampa Bay travelled to Colorado to open the series.  Tampa Bay is the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion, while Colorado has been the top-ranked team, and the favourite to win the Stanley Cup, in the McDonald NHL Power Ratings for most of the season.  But, despite being ranked #1 AND playing at home, Colorado was put to the test by the Lightning.  The Avalanche held a 3-1 lead after the first period, and it looked like they might be walking away with the game, but Tampa Bay came back with two goals in the second to tie it up at 3 heading into the third.  After neither team scored in the third period, the game headed to overtime, where Andre Burakovsky scored 1:23 into the extra frame to give the Avalanche the hard-fought 4-3 victory.

With the victory, the McDonald NHL Power Ratings team has now calculated that the Avalanche have a 76.7% chance of winning the Stanley Cup, up from 63.7% before the series started.  Game 2 goes Saturday night in Colorado.

Yesterday’s Game

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Tampa Bay 3 at Colorado 4 (OT)

• Colorado leads series 1-0
• Colorado now has a 76.7% chance of winning the series, up from 63.7%

Series schedule:

• June 15: Tampa Bay 3 at Colorado 4 (OT)
• June 18: Tampa Bay at Colorado
• June 20: Colorado at Tampa Bay
• June 22: Colorado at Tampa Bay
• June 24: Tampa Bay at Colorado (if necessary)
• June 26: Colorado at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 28: Tampa Bay at Colorado (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Colorado has a 76.7% chance of winning (▲13.0)
  • In 4 games: 19.0% (▲7.2)
  • In 5 games: 25.8% (▲6.0)
  • In 6 games: 17.0% (▲1.0)
  • In 7 games: 14.8% (▼1.3)
• Tampa Bay has a 23.3% chance of winning (▼13.0)
  • In 7 games: 9.7% (▼0.9)
  • In 6 games: 9.4% (▼3.3)
  • In 5 games: 4.1% (▼4.1)
  • In 4 games: 0.0% (▼4.9)

Saturday’s Game

Tampa Bay at Colorado

• Colorado leads series 1-0
• Colorado has a 76.7% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Stanley Cup Finals

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Colorado leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: Colorado 76.7%, Tampa Bay 23.3%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1660, 1st overall
• Tampa Bay: 1616, 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (2 games):

• Colorado: 1 regulation win, 1 shootout win
• Tampa Bay: 0 wins

Previous rounds:

• Colorado:
  • defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
  • defeated St. Louis (1595, T-2nd) in 6 games
  • defeated Edmonton (1589, 3rd) in 4 games
• Tampa Bay:
  • defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
  • defeated Florida (1591, 4th) in 4 games
  • defeated NY Rangers (1581, 4th) in 6 games

Series schedule:

• June 15: Tampa Bay 3 at Colorado 4 (OT)
• June 18: Tampa Bay at Colorado
• June 20: Colorado at Tampa Bay
• June 22: Colorado at Tampa Bay
• June 24: Tampa Bay at Colorado (if necessary)
• June 26: Colorado at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 28: Tampa Bay at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 76.7% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 19.0%
  • In 5 games: 25.8%
  • In 6 games: 17.0%
  • In 7 games: 14.8%
• Tampa Bay has a 23.3% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 9.7%
  • In 6 games: 9.4%
  • In 5 games: 4.1%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            63.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           36.3%

These chances were calculated before the final round of the playoffs.