Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Final went last night, with the New York Rangers and Tampa Bay Lightning tied at 2 games apiece.  The first four games were all won by the home team, and as the game was played in New York, the Rangers hoped that that trend would continue.  But, alas, it was not to be, as the Lightning won the game 3-1.  In a tight, low-scoring affair, the teams were knotted at 0-0 halfway through the second period.  The Rangers scored first, when Ryan Lindgren scored at 10:29 of the second frame, but Mikhail Sergachev tied it up 7 minutes later.  That’s the way the score remained until 1:50 left in the game, when Sergachev flipped a wrister from the blue line that bounced off of Ondrej Palat’s knee and snuck behind a screened Igor Shesterkin.  The Lightning finished off the scoring with an empty-netter in the final minute to take the game 3-1.

With the victory, the Lightning grab a 3-2 lead in the series, and the teams head south for Game 6 in Tampa Bay.  We’ve calculated that Tampa Bay now has a 79.4% chance of winning the series, an increase of 28% from before Game 5.  Colorado continues to wait for the victor of this series to face in the Stanley Cup Finals.

Yesterday’s Game

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Tampa Bay 3 at NY Rangers 1

• Tampa Bay leads series 3-2
• Tampa Bay now has a 79.4% chance of winning the series, up from 51.4%

Series schedule:

• June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 6
• June 3: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 3
• June 5: NY Rangers 2 at Tampa Bay 3
• June 7: NY Rangers 1 at Tampa Bay 4
• June 9: Tampa Bay 3 at NY Rangers 1
• June 11: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
• June 14: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• NY Rangers has a 20.6% chance of winning (▼28.0)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0% (▼22.9)
  • In 7 games: 20.6% (▼5.1)
• Tampa Bay has a 79.4% chance of winning (▲28.0)
  • In 7 games: 18.3% (▼4.5)
  • In 6 games: 61.1% (▲32.4)
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Saturday’s Game

NY Rangers at Tampa Bay

• Tampa Bay leads series 3-2
• Tampa Bay has a 79.4% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference Finals

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Tampa Bay leads series 3-2

Chances of winning: NY Rangers 20.6%, Tampa Bay 79.4%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• NY Rangers: 1581, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1603, 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• NY Rangers: 2 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
• Tampa Bay: 0 wins

Previous rounds:

• NY Rangers:
  • defeated Pittsburgh (1540, 12th) in 7 games
  • defeated Carolina (1595, T-2nd) in 7 games
• Tampa Bay:
  • defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
  • defeated Florida (1591, 4th) in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 6
• June 3: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 3
• June 5: NY Rangers 2 at Tampa Bay 3
• June 7: NY Rangers 1 at Tampa Bay 4
• June 9: Tampa Bay 3 at NY Rangers 1
• June 11: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
• June 14: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• NY Rangers has a 20.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 0.0%
  • In 7 games: 20.6%
• Tampa Bay has a 79.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 18.3%
  • In 6 games: 61.1%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Western Conference Finals

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Colorado wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1635, 1st overall
• Edmonton: 1589, 3rd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Colorado: 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• Edmonton: 1 regulation win

Previous rounds:

• Colorado:
  • defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
  • defeated St. Louis (1595, T-2nd) in 6 games
• Edmonton:
  • defeated Los Angeles (1534, 13th) in 7 games
  • defeated Calgary (1582, 6th) in 5 games

Series schedule:

• May 31: Edmonton 6 at Colorado 8
• June 2: Edmonton 0 at Colorado 4
• June 4: Colorado 4 at Edmonton 2
• June 6: Colorado 6 at Edmonton 5 (OT)

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            39.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           24.7%
 3       New York Rangers              18.2%
 4       Edmonton Oilers               17.4%

These chances were calculated at the end of the second round of the playoffs.