Experts predict Winnipeg wins 3rd straight Grey Cup

As the NHL playoffs begin winding down, the McDonald Power Ratings team can only think of one thing — the CFL is starting soon!!!  We’ve done our usual evaluation of teams, looked at the transactions, honed our predictions based on each team’s schedule, and run all of our simulations.  We’ve got our predictions for this year, and here’s a summary of what we’re expecting.

Initial Ratings

Let’s start with a warning about our doubts with our initial ratings.  Last year was an odd year, as COVID reduced the length of the schedule from 18 to 14 games, and there was some schedule rescheduling as a result of teams being affected by COVID.  In an effort to increase scoring, the league honchos have tweaked the rules, most notably moving the hash marks closer to the centre of the field in the misplaced belief that it will open up the game.  As a result, we have adjusted our ratings to account for this uncertainty.  We always adjust our initial ratings to decrease the ratings for the better than average teams and increase the ratings for the worse than average teams, but we’ve adjusted by a larger amount than normal this year.  As the first few games are played, the ratings will be adjusted appropriately, but for now, here’s our initial ratings to give an indication of how we think the season will go.

Ranking	Team	Rating	2021 Record	2021 Playoffs
1	Winnipeg	1549	11-3, 1st West	Won Grey Cup
2	Saskatchewan	1529	9-5, 2nd West	Lost West Final
3	Calgary	1525	8-6, 3rd West	Lost West Semi
4	Hamilton	1520	8-6, 2nd East	Lost Grey Cup
5	Toronto	1509	9-5, 1st East	Lost East Final
6	Montreal	1498	7-7, 3rd East	Lost East Semi
7	British Columbia	1473	5-9, 4th West	—
8	Edmonton	1462	3-11, 5th West	—
9	Ottawa	1449	3-11, 4th East	—

What about those rule changes???

As we mentioned above, the CFL felt that, because scoring was down, they needed to change the rules to allow more offensive scoring.  You can read a good article about all of the rule changes here.  We’ve surveyed the entire McDonald Power Ratings team, and they are unanimous in thinking that the rule changes are dumb.  If teams want more scoring, they can try more inventive play calling.  Most teams seem to follow the same formula: 1st down, run the ball up the middle; 2nd down, pass for a first down (or just short of a first down); 3rd down, punt.  That makes for pretty boring games.  Well, in the CFL’s favour, they didn’t decide to add a fourth down.

Our biggest disappointment with the rule changes is once again making all no-yards penalties be 15 yards.  For some reason, players from the States never seem to understand that you’ve got to give the punt returner 5 yards.  We expect we’ll see a return to the standard strategy of letting the ball bounce, wait for the kicking team to infringe on the 5 yard zone, then pick up the ball and get an automatic 15 yard return.  We’ve seen it before, we’ll see it again.

What’s the McDonald Power Ratings team formula for increased excitement and, as a result, increased attendance at the games?  Always have the visiting team be the Saskatchewan Roughriders, because all us watermelon heads that have spread throughout the country will pack the stands and cheer wildly!

Grey Cup Predictions

OK, on to our predictions.  After adjusting our ratings and running our simulations, here’s what we’re expecting.

Grey Cup Ranking	Team	Rating	Win Grey Cup
1	Winnipeg	1549	19%
2	Saskatchewan	1529	16%
3	Calgary	1525	14%
4	Hamilton	1520	12%
5 (tie)	Toronto	1509	11%
5 (tie)	Montreal	1498	11%
7	Ottawa	1449	7%
8	British Columbia	1473	6%
9	Edmonton	1462	5%

Winnipeg has won the last two Grey Cups, and they are our favourite to win it again this year.  They clearly dominated the league last year, and by the looks of things, they’re the strongest team again this year.  Saskatchewan looked good last year as well, and as the Grey Cup will be held in Regina this year, that gives the Riders a boost in their chances, as long as they can make it to the Grey Cup!  We think that Hamilton is the strongest team in the East, and are our top choice from the East.  We think that Edmonton is the least likely to win the Grey Cup, and for any non-fans of Elks GM and head coach Chris Jones, you won’t be surprised.

Our Full Predictions

Here’s our full predictions for the season.

Team	Rating	Make Playoffs	Host Playoff Game	Win Division	Make Division Final	Make Grey Cup	Win Grey Cup
Winnipeg	1549	80%	56%	32%	56%	32%	19%
Saskatchewan	1529	75%	47%	24%	47%	24%	16%
Calgary	1525	74%	47%	23%	47%	23%	14%
Hamilton	1520	75%	59%	32%	59%	27%	12%
Toronto	1509	72%	56%	29%	56%	26%	11%
Montreal	1498	69%	52%	25%	52%	27%	11%
Ottawa	1449	50%	33%	13%	33%	20%	7%
British Columbia	1473	54%	27%	11%	27%	11%	6%
Edmonton	1462	50%	24%	10%	24%	10%	5%

Week 1 Game Predictions

Thursday: Montreal (39%) at Calgary (61%)
Friday: Ottawa (30%) at Winnipeg (70%)
Saturday: Hamilton (42%) at Saskatchewan (58%)
Saturday: Edmonton (41%) at British Columbia (59%)