Experts predict Winnipeg wins 3rd straight Grey Cup
As the NHL playoffs begin winding down, the McDonald Power Ratings team can only think of one thing — the CFL is starting soon!!! We’ve done our usual evaluation of teams, looked at the transactions, honed our predictions based on each team’s schedule, and run all of our simulations. We’ve got our predictions for this year, and here’s a summary of what we’re expecting.
Initial Ratings
Let’s start with a warning about our doubts with our initial ratings. Last year was an odd year, as COVID reduced the length of the schedule from 18 to 14 games, and there was some schedule rescheduling as a result of teams being affected by COVID. In an effort to increase scoring, the league honchos have tweaked the rules, most notably moving the hash marks closer to the centre of the field in the misplaced belief that it will open up the game. As a result, we have adjusted our ratings to account for this uncertainty. We always adjust our initial ratings to decrease the ratings for the better than average teams and increase the ratings for the worse than average teams, but we’ve adjusted by a larger amount than normal this year. As the first few games are played, the ratings will be adjusted appropriately, but for now, here’s our initial ratings to give an indication of how we think the season will go.
| Ranking | Team | Rating | 2021 Record | 2021 Playoffs |
| 1 | Winnipeg | 1549 | 11-3, 1st West | Won Grey Cup |
| 2 | Saskatchewan | 1529 | 9-5, 2nd West | Lost West Final |
| 3 | Calgary | 1525 | 8-6, 3rd West | Lost West Semi |
| 4 | Hamilton | 1520 | 8-6, 2nd East | Lost Grey Cup |
| 5 | Toronto | 1509 | 9-5, 1st East | Lost East Final |
| 6 | Montreal | 1498 | 7-7, 3rd East | Lost East Semi |
| 7 | British Columbia | 1473 | 5-9, 4th West | — |
| 8 | Edmonton | 1462 | 3-11, 5th West | — |
| 9 | Ottawa | 1449 | 3-11, 4th East | — |
What about those rule changes???
As we mentioned above, the CFL felt that, because scoring was down, they needed to change the rules to allow more offensive scoring. You can read a good article about all of the rule changes here. We’ve surveyed the entire McDonald Power Ratings team, and they are unanimous in thinking that the rule changes are dumb. If teams want more scoring, they can try more inventive play calling. Most teams seem to follow the same formula: 1st down, run the ball up the middle; 2nd down, pass for a first down (or just short of a first down); 3rd down, punt. That makes for pretty boring games. Well, in the CFL’s favour, they didn’t decide to add a fourth down.
Our biggest disappointment with the rule changes is once again making all no-yards penalties be 15 yards. For some reason, players from the States never seem to understand that you’ve got to give the punt returner 5 yards. We expect we’ll see a return to the standard strategy of letting the ball bounce, wait for the kicking team to infringe on the 5 yard zone, then pick up the ball and get an automatic 15 yard return. We’ve seen it before, we’ll see it again.
What’s the McDonald Power Ratings team formula for increased excitement and, as a result, increased attendance at the games? Always have the visiting team be the Saskatchewan Roughriders, because all us watermelon heads that have spread throughout the country will pack the stands and cheer wildly!
Grey Cup Predictions
OK, on to our predictions. After adjusting our ratings and running our simulations, here’s what we’re expecting.
| Grey Cup Ranking | Team | Rating | Win Grey Cup |
| 1 | Winnipeg | 1549 | 19% |
| 2 | Saskatchewan | 1529 | 16% |
| 3 | Calgary | 1525 | 14% |
| 4 | Hamilton | 1520 | 12% |
| 5 (tie) | Toronto | 1509 | 11% |
| 5 (tie) | Montreal | 1498 | 11% |
| 7 | Ottawa | 1449 | 7% |
| 8 | British Columbia | 1473 | 6% |
| 9 | Edmonton | 1462 | 5% |
Winnipeg has won the last two Grey Cups, and they are our favourite to win it again this year. They clearly dominated the league last year, and by the looks of things, they’re the strongest team again this year. Saskatchewan looked good last year as well, and as the Grey Cup will be held in Regina this year, that gives the Riders a boost in their chances, as long as they can make it to the Grey Cup! We think that Hamilton is the strongest team in the East, and are our top choice from the East. We think that Edmonton is the least likely to win the Grey Cup, and for any non-fans of Elks GM and head coach Chris Jones, you won’t be surprised.
Our Full Predictions
Here’s our full predictions for the season.
| Team | Rating | Make Playoffs | Host Playoff Game | Win Division | Make Division Final | Make Grey Cup | Win Grey Cup |
| Winnipeg | 1549 | 80% | 56% | 32% | 56% | 32% | 19% |
| Saskatchewan | 1529 | 75% | 47% | 24% | 47% | 24% | 16% |
| Calgary | 1525 | 74% | 47% | 23% | 47% | 23% | 14% |
| Hamilton | 1520 | 75% | 59% | 32% | 59% | 27% | 12% |
| Toronto | 1509 | 72% | 56% | 29% | 56% | 26% | 11% |
| Montreal | 1498 | 69% | 52% | 25% | 52% | 27% | 11% |
| Ottawa | 1449 | 50% | 33% | 13% | 33% | 20% | 7% |
| British Columbia | 1473 | 54% | 27% | 11% | 27% | 11% | 6% |
| Edmonton | 1462 | 50% | 24% | 10% | 24% | 10% | 5% |
Week 1 Game Predictions
Thursday: Montreal (39%) at Calgary (61%)
Friday: Ottawa (30%) at Winnipeg (70%)
Saturday: Hamilton (42%) at Saskatchewan (58%)
Saturday: Edmonton (41%) at British Columbia (59%)