Last night, it was Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Final, with the New York Rangers playing the Lightning in Tampa Bay.  New York had a 2-1 lead, and with Game 5 heading back to New York, two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay needed a win.  And they came through!  Tampa Bay scored early, going up 1-0 2:38 into the game, and held that lead through the 1st period.  In the second period, Tampa Bay scored the only goal, and went into the 3rd period leading 2-0.  They scored again 5 minutes into the 3rd to take a 3-0 lead, but the Rangers managed to score a powerplay goal with 3 and a half minutes left, but that was all they could manage.  The Lightning scored an empty netter with 9 seconds left to take the game 4-1.

With the Tampa Bay win, the series is now tied 2 games apiece.  The McDonald NHL Power Ratings team is now giving the Lightning a slight edge to win the series, with a 51.4% chance, despite 2 of the next 3 games being held in New York, and all games so far in the series have been won by the home team.

There is no game tonight, as Colorado won the Western Conference Final in 4 games.  The next game goes tomorrow night, with Tampa Bay playing in New York.

Yesterday’s Game

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

NY Rangers 1 at Tampa Bay 4

• Series tied 2-2
• Tampa Bay now has a 51.4% chance of winning the series, up from 34.3%

Series schedule:

• June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 6
• June 3: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 3
• June 5: NY Rangers 2 at Tampa Bay 3
• June 7: NY Rangers 1 at Tampa Bay 4
• June 9: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers
• June 11: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
• June 14: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• NY Rangers has a 48.6% chance of winning (▼17.1)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼24.4)
  • In 6 games: 22.9% (▲1.9)
  • In 7 games: 25.7% (▲5.4)
• Tampa Bay has a 51.4% chance of winning (▲17.1)
  • In 7 games: 22.8% (▲4.9)
  • In 6 games: 28.7% (▲12.3)
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Thursday’s Game

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Tampa Bay at NY Rangers

• Series tied 2-2
• Tampa Bay has a 51.4% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference Finals

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Series tied 2-2

Chances of winning: NY Rangers 48.6%, Tampa Bay 51.4%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• NY Rangers: 1581, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1603, 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• NY Rangers: 2 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
• Tampa Bay: 0 wins

Previous rounds:

• NY Rangers:
  • defeated Pittsburgh (1540, 12th) in 7 games
  • defeated Carolina (1595, T-2nd) in 7 games
• Tampa Bay:
  • defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
  • defeated Florida (1591, 4th) in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 6
• June 3: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 3
• June 5: NY Rangers 2 at Tampa Bay 3
• June 7: NY Rangers 1 at Tampa Bay 4
• June 9: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers
• June 11: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
• June 14: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• NY Rangers has a 48.6% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 6 games: 22.9%
  • In 7 games: 25.7%
• Tampa Bay has a 51.4% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 22.8%
  • In 6 games: 28.7%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Western Conference Finals

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Colorado wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1635, 1st overall
• Edmonton: 1589, 3rd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Colorado: 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• Edmonton: 1 regulation win

Previous rounds:

• Colorado:
  • defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
  • defeated St. Louis (1595, T-2nd) in 6 games
• Edmonton:
  • defeated Los Angeles (1534, 13th) in 7 games
  • defeated Calgary (1582, 6th) in 5 games

Series schedule:

• May 31: Edmonton 6 at Colorado 8
• June 2: Edmonton 0 at Colorado 4
• June 4: Colorado 4 at Edmonton 2
• June 6: Colorado 6 at Edmonton 5 (OT)

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            39.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           24.7%
 3       New York Rangers              18.2%
 4       Edmonton Oilers               17.4%

These chances were calculated at the end of the second round of the playoffs.