What a game!  Game 4 of the Western Conference Final went last night, with Colorado playing in Edmonton.  Colorado led the series 3-0, but both teams were playing like they were on the edge of elimination!  Colorado led 1-0 after the first period, but Edmonton tied it up early in the second period, and it stayed tied at 1 until there were 3 minutes left in the second period, and then things exploded!  Edmonton scored twice at the tail end of the period and led 3-1 going into the final frame.  The fireworks continued as Colorado scored 31 seconds into the 3rd period to narrow the lead to 3-2, but then Edmonton scored again to move up 4-2 after 4 minutes.  Then, Colorado exploded for 3 more goals to take a 5-4 lead with 5 minutes left, but Edmonton came storming back and tied it back up with three and a half minutes left.  That’s the way regulation time ended, 5-5, after 6 goals were scored in the 3rd period, and 8 goals in the last 23 minutes!  Overtime didn’t last long, as Artturi Lehkonen scored 1:19 in to win the game, and the series, for Colorado.

Cale Makar led the Avalanche, scoring once and assisting on four other Colorado goals!  Not to be outdone (not by much, anyways), Leon Draisaitl had four assists for Edmonton.  Backup goalie Pavel Francouz got the start, and the win, for Colorado.  With the sweep, Colorado now moves on to the final, awaiting the winner of the Eastern Conference Final, which will go at least 5 games.  Unfortunately, there is now no chance that a Canadian team will win the Stanley Cup again this year.  Thanks, Toronto!

And tonight’s game is Game 4 of that Eastern Conference Final.  The New York Rangers play in Tampa Bay, with a 2-1 series lead.  We have calculated that New York now has a 65.7% chance of winning that series.

Yesterday’s Game

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Colorado 6 at Edmonton 5 (OT)

• Colorado wins series 4-0

Series schedule:

• May 31: Edmonton 6 at Colorado 8
• June 2: Edmonton 0 at Colorado 4
• June 4: Colorado 4 at Edmonton 2
• June 6: Colorado 6 at Edmonton 5 (OT)

Today’s Game

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

NY Rangers at Tampa Bay

• NY Rangers leads series 2-1
• NY Rangers has a 65.7% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference Finals

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

NY Rangers leads series 2-1

Chances of winning: NY Rangers 65.7%, Tampa Bay 34.3%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• NY Rangers: 1581, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1603, 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• NY Rangers: 2 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
• Tampa Bay: 0 wins

Previous rounds:

• NY Rangers:
  • defeated Pittsburgh (1540, 12th) in 7 games
  • defeated Carolina (1595, T-2nd) in 7 games
• Tampa Bay:
  • defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
  • defeated Florida (1591, 4th) in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 6
• June 3: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 3
• June 5: NY Rangers 2 at Tampa Bay 3
• June 7: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
• June 9: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers
• June 11: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 14: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• NY Rangers has a 65.7% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 0.0%
  • In 5 games: 24.4%
  • In 6 games: 21.0%
  • In 7 games: 20.3%
• Tampa Bay has a 34.3% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 17.9%
  • In 6 games: 16.4%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Western Conference Finals

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Colorado wins series 4-0

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1635, 1st overall
• Edmonton: 1589, 3rd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Colorado: 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• Edmonton: 1 regulation win

Previous rounds:

• Colorado:
  • defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
  • defeated St. Louis (1595, T-2nd) in 6 games
• Edmonton:
  • defeated Los Angeles (1534, 13th) in 7 games
  • defeated Calgary (1582, 6th) in 5 games

Series schedule:

• May 31: Edmonton 6 at Colorado 8
• June 2: Edmonton 0 at Colorado 4
• June 4: Colorado 4 at Edmonton 2
• June 6: Colorado 6 at Edmonton 5 (OT)

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            39.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           24.7%
 3       New York Rangers              18.2%
 4       Edmonton Oilers               17.4%

These chances were calculated at the end of the second round of the playoffs.