Home sweet home! In last night’s Eastern Conference Finals playoff game, the New York Rangers won their eighth straight home playoff game, 3-2, and took a 2-0 lead in their series against the Tampa Bay Lightning. Igor Shesterkin, the Ranger goalie, was the star of the game, stopping 29 Lightning shots, including a number of tough saves in the final minute to preserve the win. With the 2-0 lead, we’ve calculated that the Rangers now have a 78.4% chance of winning the series, up from 62.1%. Game 3 goes on Sunday in Tampa Bay.
In tonight’s game, Colorado travels to Edmonton to face the Oilers. The Avalanche have a 2-0 series lead, and the boys in the back room have calculated that Colorado now has an 87.9% chance of winning the series.
Yesterday’s Game
NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)
Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 3
- NY Rangers leads series 2-0
- NY Rangers now has a 78.4% chance of winning the series, up from 62.1%
Series schedule:
- June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 6
- June 3: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 3
- June 5: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
- June 7: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
- June 9: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)
- June 11: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
- June 14: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)
New simulation results:
- NY Rangers has a 78.4% chance of winning (▲16.3)
- In 4 games: 21.1% (▲9.4)
- In 5 games: 27.1% (▲7.7)
- In 6 games: 15.9% (▲0.8)
- In 7 games: 14.2% (▼1.7)
- Tampa Bay has a 21.6% chance of winning (▼16.3)
- In 7 games: 12.6% (▼1.5)
- In 6 games: 9.0% (▼6.6)
- In 5 games: 0.0% (▼8.3)
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Today’s Game
Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)
Colorado at Edmonton
- Colorado leads series 2-0
- Colorado has a 87.9% chance of winning the series
Playoff Matchups
Eastern Conference Finals
NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)
NY Rangers leads series 2-0
Chances of winning: NY Rangers 78.4%, Tampa Bay 21.6%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- NY Rangers: 1581, 4th overall
- Tampa Bay: 1603, 2nd overall
Head-to-head this year (3 games):
- NY Rangers: 2 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
- Tampa Bay: 0 wins
Previous rounds:
- NY Rangers:
- defeated Pittsburgh (1540, 12th) in 7 games
- defeated Carolina (1595, T-2nd) in 7 games
- Tampa Bay:
- defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
- defeated Florida (1591, 4th) in 4 games
Series schedule:
- June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 6
- June 3: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 3
- June 5: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
- June 7: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
- June 9: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)
- June 11: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
- June 14: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- NY Rangers has a 78.4% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 21.1%
- In 5 games: 27.1%
- In 6 games: 15.9%
- In 7 games: 14.2%
- Tampa Bay has a 21.6% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 12.6%
- In 6 games: 9.0%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Western Conference Finals
Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)
Colorado leads series 2-0
Chances of winning: Colorado 87.9%, Edmonton 12.1%
McDonald NHL Power Ratings:
- Colorado: 1635, 1st overall
- Edmonton: 1589, 3rd overall
Head-to-head this year (3 games):
- Colorado: 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
- Edmonton: 1 regulation win
Previous rounds:
- Colorado:
- defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
- defeated St. Louis (1595, T-2nd) in 6 games
- Edmonton:
- defeated Los Angeles (1534, 13th) in 7 games
- defeated Calgary (1582, 6th) in 5 games
Series schedule:
- May 31: Edmonton 6 at Colorado 8
- June 2: Edmonton 0 at Colorado 4
- June 4: Colorado at Edmonton
- June 6: Colorado at Edmonton
- June 8: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)
- June 10: Colorado at Edmonton (if necessary)
- June 12: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)
Simulation results:
- Colorado has a 87.9% chance of winning
- In 4 games: 30.3%
- In 5 games: 31.0%
- In 6 games: 15.4%
- In 7 games: 11.3%
- Edmonton has a 12.1% chance of winning
- In 7 games: 7.5%
- In 6 games: 4.6%
- In 5 games: 0.0%
- In 4 games: 0.0%
Chances of winning the Stanley Cup
1 Colorado Avalanche 39.7% 2 Tampa Bay Lightning 24.7% 3 New York Rangers 18.2% 4 Edmonton Oilers 17.4%
These chances were calculated at the end of the second round of the playoffs.