Last night in the Western Conference Final, favourite Colorado hosted Edmonton, leading the series 1-0.  In what was actually a pretty close game, Colorado won 4-0 to take a pretty commanding series lead heading to Edmonton.  4-0 was a close game?  Well, it was close until Colorado exploded for 3 goals in 2:04 early in the second period!  Until then, it was a very close game (you can’t get much closer than 0-0, I suppose), and it stayed close checking until late in the third period when Colorado scored their fourth of the night.  Pavel Francouz, the Avalanche backup goalie, got the shutout victory, as he started in place of an injured Darcy Kuemper.

Game 3 goes on Friday night in Edmonton.  Our calculations show that Colorado now has an 87.9% chance of winning the series, up from 76.9% before Game 2.  They also have a 30.3% chance of sweeping the series!

In tonight’s game, Tampa Bay visits the New York Rangers, with the Rangers holding a 1-0 lead in that series.  New York has a 62.1% chance of winning that series.

Yesterday’s Game

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Edmonton 0 at Colorado 4

• Colorado leads series 2-0
• Colorado now has a 87.9% chance of winning the series, up from 76.9%

Series schedule:

• May 31: Edmonton 6 at Colorado 8
• June 2: Edmonton 0 at Colorado 4
• June 4: Colorado at Edmonton
• June 6: Colorado at Edmonton
• June 8: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)
• June 10: Colorado at Edmonton (if necessary)
• June 12: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)

New simulation results:

• Colorado has a 87.9% chance of winning (▲11.0)
  • In 4 games: 30.3% (▲11.0)
  • In 5 games: 31.0% (▲5.1)
  • In 6 games: 15.4% (▼1.6)
  • In 7 games: 11.3% (▼3.4)
• Edmonton has a 12.1% chance of winning (▼11.0)
  • In 7 games: 7.5% (▼2.2)
  • In 6 games: 4.6% (▼4.7)
  • In 5 games: 0.0% (▼4.0)
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Today’s Game

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

Tampa Bay at NY Rangers

• NY Rangers leads series 1-0
• NY Rangers has a 62.1% chance of winning the series

Playoff Matchups

Eastern Conference Finals

NY Rangers (2nd in Metropolitan, 110 pts) vs. Tampa Bay (3rd in Atlantic, 110 pts)

NY Rangers leads series 1-0

Chances of winning: NY Rangers 62.1%, Tampa Bay 37.9%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• NY Rangers: 1581, 4th overall
• Tampa Bay: 1603, 2nd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• NY Rangers: 2 regulation wins, 1 shootout win
• Tampa Bay: 0 wins

Previous rounds:

• NY Rangers:
  • defeated Pittsburgh (1540, 12th) in 7 games
  • defeated Carolina (1595, T-2nd) in 7 games
• Tampa Bay:
  • defeated Toronto (1598, 2nd) in 7 games
  • defeated Florida (1591, 4th) in 4 games

Series schedule:

• June 1: Tampa Bay 2 at NY Rangers 6
• June 3: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers
• June 5: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
• June 7: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay
• June 9: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)
• June 11: NY Rangers at Tampa Bay (if necessary)
• June 14: Tampa Bay at NY Rangers (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• NY Rangers has a 62.1% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 11.7%
  • In 5 games: 19.4%
  • In 6 games: 15.1%
  • In 7 games: 15.9%
• Tampa Bay has a 37.9% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 14.1%
  • In 6 games: 15.6%
  • In 5 games: 8.3%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Western Conference Finals

Colorado (1st in Central, 119 pts) vs. Edmonton (2nd in Pacific, 104 pts)

Colorado leads series 2-0

Chances of winning: Colorado 87.9%, Edmonton 12.1%

McDonald NHL Power Ratings:

• Colorado: 1635, 1st overall
• Edmonton: 1589, 3rd overall

Head-to-head this year (3 games):

• Colorado: 1 overtime win, 1 shootout win
• Edmonton: 1 regulation win

Previous rounds:

• Colorado:
  • defeated Nashville (1512, 17th) in 4 games
  • defeated St. Louis (1595, T-2nd) in 6 games
• Edmonton:
  • defeated Los Angeles (1534, 13th) in 7 games
  • defeated Calgary (1582, 6th) in 5 games

Series schedule:

• May 31: Edmonton 6 at Colorado 8
• June 2: Edmonton 0 at Colorado 4
• June 4: Colorado at Edmonton
• June 6: Colorado at Edmonton
• June 8: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)
• June 10: Colorado at Edmonton (if necessary)
• June 12: Edmonton at Colorado (if necessary)

Simulation results:

• Colorado has a 87.9% chance of winning
  • In 4 games: 30.3%
  • In 5 games: 31.0%
  • In 6 games: 15.4%
  • In 7 games: 11.3%
• Edmonton has a 12.1% chance of winning
  • In 7 games: 7.5%
  • In 6 games: 4.6%
  • In 5 games: 0.0%
  • In 4 games: 0.0%

Chances of winning the Stanley Cup

 1       Colorado Avalanche            39.7%
 2       Tampa Bay Lightning           24.7%
 3       New York Rangers              18.2%
 4       Edmonton Oilers               17.4%

These chances were calculated at the end of the second round of the playoffs.